C-19 Chat Post – February 26 2021

DAYS 1-5 (FEBRUARY 25 – MARCH 1)

The wind is in, but the cold is not too bad, in fact today’s temperatures will start out above normal with respect to morning lows and end up right around normal as far as daytime highs would go – in other words, they will remain fairly steady. But it will be a dry day with passing clouds interrupting the sun. Colder air arrives tonight behind a secondary trough of low pressure and then high pressure builds in for a cold but dry and more tranquil day Friday. Systems are on the move quickly and Saturday will turn out unsettled as the first of two low pressure areas make a run at us, passing to the northwest for mainly a rain situation but not a big storm. The second low looks weaker and further south and is going to be more of a cloud producer for Sunday, which will not be a bad day. A little bit of rainfall may take place as we flip the calendar from February to March Sunday night / early Monday, and an additional rain shower may visit the region to start the day Monday before we see the wind pick up and the temperature go down, especially when a secondary cold front arrives later in the day or Monday evening with a snow shower threat…

TODAY: Sun and passing clouds. Temperatures steady 37-44. Wind NW 15-25 MPH and gusty morning, 10-20 MPH afternoon.

TONIGHT: Partly cloudy early then clearing. Lows 18-25. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 30-37. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Increasing clouds. Lows 23-30. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Mostly cloudy. Periods of rain, may start as sleet and/or snow. higher elevations north and west. Highs 40-47. Wind variable up to 10 MPH becoming S 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy evening with rain ending. Partly cloudy with patchy fog overnight. Lows 33-40. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 45-52. Wind W 5-15 MPH becoming variable.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Chance of light rain. Lows 38-45. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Variably cloudy with a chance of rain showers in the morning. Partly sunny in the afternoon with a chance of late-day or evening snow showers. Temperatures steady 38-45 early then falling later in the day. Wind W increasing to 10-20 MPH with higher gusts shifting to NW late.

DAYS 6-10 (MARCH 2-6)

Short-lived but sharp shot of cold air March 2 with dry/windy weather. Moderating temperatures, fair & breezy conditions for March 3 with a westerly air flow. Watching for some unsettled weather for at least a brief period around March 4 and again at the end of the period, but low confidence on the outlook as we go out in time.

DAYS 11-15 (MARCH 7-11)

General westerly flow, but variable pattern as we again will have to watch several disturbances and run the risk of some significant temperature swings.

C-19 Chat Post – February 25 2021

DAYS 1-5 (FEBRUARY 24-28)

The final 5 days of meteorological winter begin today with one of the nicer winter days we’ve had this season. While we start out with sunshine we will have to deal with cloudiness later this morning into this afternoon as a warm front crosses the region. This front will not bring any precipitation with it, but will serve to shift and increase the wind, so if you are near south-facing shores today you will not ss the warm-up that other areas see. Also, shoreline areas tend to be windier, so today will be a good example of how local variations are present in our weather. This evening a cold front will sweep west to east through the region with the possibility of a rain shower along it, but this front will shift the wind yet again, which will increase even more overnight, and transport colder air into the region. Thursday’s weather will feature sun but a lot of wind and a seasonable chill, which will feel colder due to the wind. A secondary trough swings through at night and delivers slightly colder air for Friday, although as we get into the day Friday the wind will drop off as high pressure moves into the region, so it may actually feel a little less cold Friday with the higher sun angle and less wind than the day before it felt with air not as cold but more wind – another little quirk of weather and how we feel it based on conditions. Looking ahead to the weekend, we’ll have to watch 2 low pressure systems, the first which will make a run at and into New England Saturday, its center passing northwest of our area, so that means milder air and a chance of some rainfall which could start as brief snow or mix in higher elevations well northwest of Boston before it’s simply too mild to support anything frozen falling from the sky. This system exits Saturday night. I don’t have a lot of faith in the second system hanging together as a formidable weather event as it makes its approach Sunday, so for now I just expect that it will add some cloudiness to our sky but deliver no precipitation, at least during the day on Sunday, which will be a mild day.

TODAY: Sun gives way to clouds. Highs 42-49. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. A passing rain shower possible. Lows 35-42. Wind SW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts, shifting to NW and increasing to 15-25 MPH and gusty overnight.

THURSDAY: Sun and passing clouds. Temperatures steady 35-42. Wind NW 15-25 MPH and gusty morning, 10-20 MPH afternoon.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 18-25. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 28-35. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Increasing clouds. Lows 21-28. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Mostly cloudy. Periods of rain, may start as sleet and/or snow. higher elevations north and west. Highs 40-47. Wind variable up to 10 MPH becoming S 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy evening with rain ending. Partly cloudy with patchy fog overnight. Lows 33-40. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 45-52. Wind W 5-15 MPH becoming variable.

DAYS 6-10 (MARCH 1-5)

March has a reputation for volatility and fickleness here in New England. March 2021 will probably waste no time displaying both of those traits. Watching at least 1 and probably 2 low pressure systems for potential impact and also watching at least 1 and possibly 2 shots of significant cold air. Timing is uncertain on it all, but the first best shot at a very cold day is March 2. Will sort it out as we go along…

DAYS 11-15 (MARCH 6-10)

General westerly flow, but not so simple a pattern as we again will have to watch several disturbances and run the risk of some significant temperature swings.

C-19 Chat Post – February 24 2021

DAYS 1-5 (FEBRUARY 23-27)

And now we get to enjoy a couple milder days as we head into the middle of the final week of February, but the price we’ll pay is quite a bit of cloudiness as we have rapidly moving systems rippling along the jet stream flow – one disturbance today, which may produce a brief shower of rain or snow over the interior hills and maybe a sprinkle of rain along the coastal plain, and a cold front which will arrive from the west Wednesday night. We get more sun for Thursday and Friday but the price for that will be a return to colder weather, including wind on Thursday behind that cold front as its parent low intensifies while heading into southeastern Canada. At least Friday will be more tranquil courtesy high pressure. Along comes the next low pressure area for Saturday. It doesn’t look like a strong system, and milder air moving in along with it should mean whatever does fall will be primarily in the form of rain, although we cannot rule out a bit of frozen precipitation at the start, depending on the timing of the arrival.

TODAY: Mostly cloudy. A brief shower of snow or rain interior & rain coast. Highs 37-44. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Clearing. Lows 29-36. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Sun gives way to clouds. Highs 42-49. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. A passing rain shower possible. Lows 35-42. Wind SW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts, shifting to NW overnight.

THURSDAY: Sun and passing clouds. Temperatures steady 35-42. Wind NW 15-25 MPH morning, 10-20 MPH afternoon.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 18-25. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 28-35. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Increasing clouds. Lows 21-28. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of rain, may start as sleet and/or snow. Highs 38-45. Wind variable 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (FEBRUARY 28 – MARCH 4)

The back half of the final weekend of February will see a return to dry weather between departing low pressure and approaching high pressure, but it will probably be a windy/chilly day too for February 28. The early days of March look changeable both in weather and temperature including the risk of a very sharp shot of arctic air, but I’m not even going to attempt day-by-day at this point as the most reliable guidance we have is in high disagreement with their individual depictions. Will re-evaluate this for the next update and give it another try.

DAYS 11-15 (MARCH 5-9)

We still have a lot to sort out here. Looks like a generally westerly flow but plenty to track including at least a couple disturbances and the possibility of an additional strong shot of cold air from Canada.

C-19 Chat Post – February 23 2021

DAYS 1-5 (FEBRUARY 22-26)

Low pressure will cross New England today bringing unsettled weather with it. Despite a cold start this morning, and it being cold enough to start out as snow north and west of Boston and maybe brief snow or mix near the city, enough mild air will be involved so that areas to the southeast start as rain and areas that start as snow turn to mix/rain after a possible small accumulation. All of this departs from west to east during this evening. Another disturbance racing eastward will cause some cloudiness Tuesday, but any minor precipitation associated with that should not really make it beyond the mountains to our north and west, so it should be a dry day here. Wednesday will be the pick of the week with high pressure in control and the mildest fair-weather air we’ve had in a while. A cold front quickly crosses the region later Wednesday night and early Thursday morning with no more than a rain shower and a secondary trough comes through Thursday night with little fanfare other than a few clouds, but we’ll have a distinctive trend back to colder weather during Thursday and Friday.

TODAY: Cloudy. Brief burst of snow possible northern MA and southern NH mid to late morning with a dusting or a coating of accumulation possible. Precipitation arriving west to east during the afternoon as snow from the I-95 belt northwest and mix/rain to the southeast before changing to rain all areas except may remain mixed with snow in higher elevations of north central MA and southwestern NH. Snow accumulation of a coating to 1/2 inch possible in the I-95 belt and 1/2 to 2 inches possible I-495 belt north of I-90 northwestward. Highs 34-41. Wind variable up to 10 MPH early, then S increasing to 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.

TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy start with any rain exiting early, then clearing. Watch for the formation of black ice on untreated surfaces. Lows 25-32. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 37-44. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Lows 29-36. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 42-49. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. A passing rain shower possible overnight. Lows 35-42. Wind SW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

THURSDAY: Sun and passing clouds. Temperatures steady 35-42. Wind W 10-20 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 18-25. Wind NW 10-20 MPH.

FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 28-35. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, diminishing.

DAYS 6-10 (FEBRUARY 27 – MARCH 3)

A weak low pressure area will bring some unsettled weather into the region on February 27 but should depart by the next day for a 50/50 final weekend of February. Watching the possibility of a longer-duration unsettled weather event sometime during the first three days of March.

DAYS 11-15 (MARCH 4-8)

Still low confidence for this far out but a general west to northwest flow pattern is expected with at least a mid period unsettled weather threat. Potential for a quick shot of very cold air from Canada sometime in here…

C-19 Chat Post – February 22 2021

DAYS 1-5 (FEBRUARY 21-25)

An area of high pressure slides eastward across the Middle Atlantic today but extends far enough north to give us a nice winter day here in New England. Low pressure will cross New England later Monday bringing unsettled weather with it. For here in southeastern New England, precipitation may come with an initial burst of snow for areas mostly north of I-90 with an initial push of instability and overrunning of warmer air above air that is still quite cold. The surface warm front associated with this system may never make it completely across the WHW forecast area before its cold front sweeps through during the evening. This occluding frontal system will produce a swath of precipitation from west to east during the afternoon and evening, starting out as snow with minor accumulation in the I-95 belt northwestward, and possibly brief rain/snow mix but otherwise mainly rain in areas to the southeast. Once the main front has swept through in the evening then drier air will return and set us up for a decent day on Tuesday, although a disturbance passing north of the region means that we’ll have some high and mid level cloudiness to deal with. Wednesday looks like the pick of the upcoming week with more sunshine, and the mildest air we’ve had for a while. It would end up even warmer if not for existing snow cover, but look for most areas to easily make the middle to upper 40s, which will feel quite nice in combination with the late February sun. A cold front will sweep across the region in the early hours of Thursday with limited moisture to worth with, so just look for some cloudiness and perhaps a brief shower of rain as it will still be fairly mild. Temperatures during the day Thursday will not move all that much as the arrival of cold air and the warming of the sun essentially balance each other out.

TODAY: Sunny. Highs 28-35. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Increasing clouds. Lows 16-23. Wind variable under 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Cloudy. Brief burst of snow possible northern MA and southern NH mid to late morning with a dusting or a coating of accumulation possible. Precipitation arriving west to east during the afternoon as snow from the I-95 belt northwest and mix/rain to the southeast before changing to rain all areas except may remain mixed with snow in higher elevations of north central MA and southwestern NH. Snow accumulation of a coating to 1 inch possible in the I-95 belt and 1-2 inches possible I-495 belt north of I-90 northwestward. Highs 34-41. Wind variable up to 10 MPH early, then S increasing to 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.

MONDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy start with any rain exiting early, then clearing. Watch for the formation of black ice on untreated surfaces. Lows 25-32. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 37-44. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Lows 29-36. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 42-49. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. A passing rain shower possible overnight. Lows 35-42. Wind SW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

THURSDAY: Sun and passing clouds. Temperatures steady 35-42. Wind W 10-20 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (FEBRUARY 26 – MARCH 2)

Stronger push of cold air February 26 but high pressure builds in with fair weather while a disturbance passes well south of New England. A little uncertainty beyond this as some guidance brings disturbances and unsettled weather into the region over the February 27-28 weekend with a larger storm potential in the first couple days of March, while other guidance keeps the weekend drier and brings unsettled weather in for the start of March. Leaning toward the second solution for now but definitely more re-evaluation needed as I am not sure how this evolves yet.

DAYS 11-15 (MARCH 3-7)

Very low confidence out this far. West to northwest flow pattern expected. Best chance for unsettled weather comes around the middle of the period.

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C-19 Chat Post – February 21 2021

DAYS 1-5 (FEBRUARY 20-24)

Like little sprinkles of powdered sugar upon the wintry cake Mother Nature slow baked for us over the last couple days, light snow showers are adding some flakes to the top as they roam across the region this morning from south central and southeastern NH across parts of eastern MA. Actually, the atmosphere being somewhat unstable today, we may see a few more of these pop up through the afternoon, but with no accumulation, and most of the day generally dry and cold in a northwest flow behind the storm and in advance of high pressure, which today will be centered over the eastern Ohio Valley. This high center will slide eastward just to the south of New England Sunday, which will feature lots of sun and less wind, but still chilly air. The jet stream express train will bring the next low pressure system into and across New England Monday, center passing north of our area Monday evening. Its trailing warm front / cold front combo will bring a period or two of precipitation, probably starting as snow for most (maybe mix/rain South Coast) but a warmer air invasion above will probably flip this to a rain situation for most areas in the I-95 belt southeastward, with snow most likely holding on well to the northwest in north central MA and southwestern NH, with a mix zone between. This will not be a big precipitation producer. I’ll just have to detail the precip-type distribution as it gets closer. This system is out of here and fair weather returns for Tuesday and Wednesday, first with a bit cooler air Tuesday, then a quick moderation for Wednesday. If it were not for snow cover that will still be on the ground, we’d probably reach or exceed 50 that day, but my early call is to hold the temperatures in the 40s due to the refrigeration-effect. Still, looks like a nice day Wednesday – one that may kick-start your spring dreams. 🙂 Just remember where we live and don’t get too used to the milder air. 😉

TODAY: Clouds dominant this morning with a few snow showers likely. Variably cloudy, bit more sun, but also isolated snow showers afternoon. Highs 28-35. Wind NW increasing to 10-20 MPH, a few higher gusts possible.

TONIGHT: Clearing. Lows 12-19. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, diminishing.

SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 28-35. Wind NW up to 10 MPH morning, becoming variable.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Increasing clouds. Lows 18-25. Wind variable under 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Cloudy. Snow/mix arriving midday-afternoon, becoming mix interior and northwest and rain coastal and southeastern areas. Highs 35-42. Wind variable 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Lows 25-32. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 33-40. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 15-22. Wind W under 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Partly cloudy. Evening rain showers possible. Highs 41-48. Wind SW 10-20 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (FEBRUARY 25 – MARCH 1)

Quick turn to colder but dry weather February 25-26 – small storm system may pass south of the region February 26. Next threat of unsettled weather comes over the February 27-28 weekend with fair weather returning to end the period. This represents a more zonal flow pattern.

DAYS 11-15 (MARCH 2-6)

West to northwest flow pattern expected. Low confidence on timing, but early call is unsettled weather with passing low pressure March 2, variable temperatures, one more disturbance around mid period and a shot of colder air following.

C-19 Chat Post – February 20 2021

DAYS 1-5 (FEBRUARY 19-23)

Elongated low pressure passing just south of New England will continue to cause episodes of snow with additional slow-building accumulation through this evening before gradually ending as snow showers overnight tonight. Additional snowfall accumulations from this system will be 2 to 5 inches, most areas seeing 4 or less additional, but spot 5 inch amounts possible with some ocean-enhancement potential from Seacoast NH into eastern MA. This will bring the snowfall totals for the entire event mostly into the lower halves of the 2-4/4-8 inch ranges previously mentioned, with only spot locations getting to around 6+ total. But again one more reminder that the long-duration of this event and the lack of pavement accumulation of snow make it a less impactful system than if we were getting all of the snowfall accumulation from a heavier burst over a shorter period of time. Saturday, some instability will mean additional passing clouds and possible snow showers, along with a gusty breeze, before high pressure builds in for a dry and cold but more tranquil Sunday with less wind. Low pressure crosses the region Monday with unsettled weather – a precipitation shield that will have a rain/snow line to fine-tune. High pressure builds in with fair weather returning Tuesday.

THROUGH THIS EVENING: Overcast with periodic to frequent snow, except mixed with sleet at times South Coast and islands and possibly rain for a time Nantucket. Additional snowfall accumulation (not including what has already fallen), 2 to 5 inches, most areas under 4 inches. Total snowfall accumulation for event 4 to8 inches with any greater-than-6 inch amounts isolated and favoring eastern MA. Temperatures generally steady 27-34. Wind N to NE 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy with a chance of snow showers. Lows 20-27. Wind N to NW 10-20 MPH.

SATURDAY: Sun/cloud mix. Risk of passing snow showers. Highs 28-35. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Lows 12-19. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, diminishing.

SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 28-35. Wind NW up to 10 MPH morning, becoming variable.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Increasing clouds. Lows 18-25. Wind variable under 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Cloudy. Snow/mix/rain likely. Highs 35-42. Wind variable 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Lows 25-32. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 35-42. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (FEBRUARY 24-28)

Medium range guidance is struggling trying to identify how things play out as we head through the final days of February. My current feel is that we get back into another boundary zone and have a couple opportunities for unsettled weather, but timing and precipitation type for these would be impossible to really elaborate on this far in advance. Re-evaluation to come.

DAYS 11-15 (MARCH 1-5)

West to northwest flow pattern expected. At least one Pacific low pressure area should make its way across the country to visit us in the early days of March, once again timing uncertain this far into the future. We’ll have to keep an eye on additional cold air building in Canada in early March.

C-19 Chat Post – February 19 2021