Friday March 5 2021 Forecast (7:29AM)

60 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (MARCH 5-9)

A large low pressure area in eastern Canada continues its influence on our weather today and through the weekend keeping it cold, dry, and breezy, with windiest weather today and a gradual abatement of wind during the weekend. We’ll also see a lot of cloudiness in the low’s circulation over our sky today, before sunshine become dominant for a good part of the weekend. When we get to early next week, a change takes place. The low in eastern Canada pulls away, and high pressure which had been to our west sinks to the south, taking up residence along the Mid Atlantic Coast. This will result in a notable temperature moderation here with continued dry weather.

TODAY: Variably cloudy. Highs 28-35. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.

TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 13-20. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 32-39. Wind N 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 12-19. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY: Partly cloudy. Highs 33-40. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, diminishing.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 20-27. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 38-45. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 30-37. Wind WSW 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 50-57. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (MARCH 10-14)

High pressure over the Middle Atlantic States extending offshore as well will provide us with a short-lived but significant warm-up for a couple to a few days during the middle of next week. The wild card will be how soon does a cold front from Canada bring us back to reality? Sometime March 12 is my current estimate. After that we turn colder and have to eye the potential for some unsettled weather as well in the March 12-14 time frame.

DAYS 11-15 (MARCH 15-19)

A blocking pattern should keep us on the cooler to colder side once again, but being near a boundary between a cold Canada and northeastern US and much warmer air to the south increases the chances for unsettled weather, which may include additional opportunities for some frozen precipitation as we move through the final days of the astronomical winter season…

60 thoughts on “Friday March 5 2021 Forecast (7:29AM)”

  2. Gotta love the dramatic GFS run that brings us from near 70 one day to nearly double-digit snowfall a couple days later at the end of next week. 😉 Of course that is an entirely plausible scenario, just the same. 🙂

    1. Probably NONE, due to a sea breeze with the ocean at 40 degrees. Would need to hold onto a land breeze. Possible, But I wouldn’t bet on it. 🙂

  7. Will be happy to see our snow pack finally get wiped out completely next week. My poor eyes can’t take anymore of the bright white snow.

        1. that doesn’t count. Is there any in your yard, in the fields, in open spaces? The answer is no.

          1. Actually, yes, there is still a swath of snow in my neighbor’s back yard. It’s in the shade most of the day. 🙂

    2. Looks like channel 7 is betting on those sea breezes and knocking temps down for the city.

  11. Thank you, TK!

    Spoke to folks in Montana yesterday where the temperatures were in the mid to upper 50s. We’ll be in that warm sector soon, though probably not at the immediate coastline.

  12. I think there can be a day where the mild air makes it to the coast.

    It depends on the gradient. There´s a day there, maybe the 10th ?, as currently projected, where the wind may be strong enough to keep a sea breeze at bay.

    Of course, south shore and Cape Cod get an indirect seabreeze on a SW wind also, so, these areas would be very hard to get a warmup into.

    In the coming days, I think we keep an eye on the prejected gradient. Is there a strong storm going to our west at any point or is the ¨bermuda high¨ strong, ie, things that would give us a day or 2 of stronger SW winds.

  13. Thanks TK. It felt like January this morning. This is a classic cold/dry stretch with a deeply suppressed storm track. The storm threat for this weekend was worth keeping an eye on especially given how often we see the northwest trend, but it’s very tough this time of year for it to be both this cold and also have precipitation.

    On the contrary, next week is going to be an opportunity to absolutely crush temperature guidance by going well on the warm side of the envelope. I will definitely be hitting that hard in my long term forecast and discussion today. Granted, it will be easier here because we’ll likely have a longer window before we have to worry about the backdoor front. Eventually the warm weather party will come crashing down, but it’s gonna be a pretty significant warm-up while it lasts.

      1. Yes, living/working in NJ and forecasting for the surrounding area. Most of NJ, DE, eastern PA, and a bit of MD. Wouldn’t be surprised if towards the end of the warm spell late next week, we get a day where it’s in the 70s here but the 40s up there.

  14. Phillllllllllllllllllip…
    To answer your question… which basically repeats Dave’s… Logan may hit 60 one day, favoring Thursday, when the gradient wind would likely prevent sea breezing, but even this is very low confidence, being day 7.

    1. Thaaaaaaaaaaanks TK! 🙂

      I believe it would be the first 60 for the year at Logan, not sure about the suburbs.

    1. Enter TK reminding us how the modlels are trash beyond 3 days and JMA talking about March sun angle, difficulty accumulating where most people live, etc etc.

      1. All very true. I’ll bet anything something happens after a nice stretch of warm weather (normal coastal caveats).

  18. If that happens Boston will take the lead in the snowfall standings. Even if those snowfall amounts are way overdone all they need is 0.3 to take the lead.

  19. The period from about March 13 to about March 22 leaves us vulnerable to late season winter weather events, including accumulating frozen precipitation.

    1. If any were to have intense enough snow, then you can throw
      out the sun angle and warm surfaces/pavements. If it is only light to moderate precip then those factors will play a big role in limiting any accumulations.

      I remember a storm in late march back in the 60s were it snowed pretty good (Good light to occasionally moderate, but not heavy) ALL day long during daylight hours and we managed only 2-3 inches. I was really surprised, but now I know full well why.

      1. We had a solid foot of snow during broad daylight on March 29 1984. That was some of the heaviest snow and strongest wind combined that I have experienced in my entire life. Also about on par with the amount of lightning & thunder that we experienced in the December 9 2005 event.

    2. If I were not being lazy, I’d look to see how many we have had during and right around that period. It is a bit like the dec 9 period.

    3. Won’t get much longer until we kick this cold & snow to the curb . I can’t wait !!!!

      1. My youngest reminded me that we had lovely warm days last March…..then were quite chilly until well into spring.

  20. If a late winter weather event happens after a spring preview for a few days next week I call that vintage March. Spring gives you a tease then winter says Not So Fast!!!

    1. Almost every year and then there is that NASTY facata East wind
      around these parts. I cannot begin to tell you how BRUTAL that
      can be on an otherwise beautiful Spring Day!

      It’s more comfortable on a wicked cold Jaunuary day, than a Spring day in Boston with an East Wind!

  22. I am more interested in the 17th time frame for potential impactful winter weather than the 13-14th. Those temps, precip rates, time of day do nothing for me on the 13th-14th and the 10:1 map is worth less than zero. The 17th time looks to have the potential to be more intense and even if it gets pushed south, that push could pull down more cold with an elongated broader precip field.

    These are just hypothetical potentials for day 8-11. No one should be overly confident in any scenario.

    1. Easily 2 or 3 scenarios where we can get some kind of mix/frozen event. I see the one that can result in a prolonged episode as well. I love trying to solve these puzzles. 🙂

  23. I am confident that there will be some really nice March days next week. Especially away from the coast.

  24. Today was a beautiful day. I know it wasn’t that sunny. But I just love the feel of winter and will miss it soon. Have to take advantage of every winter’s day that remains this season.

      1. I really love this Bruins team.
        I was very disappointed in alot of “fans” who were freaking out after 2 bad games in a row. EVERY team goes through that. It’s not that big a deal. What’s important is what you do to get yourself out of funks like that. Anyway…great game tonight. Hopefully B.C. is going to be ok.

Comments are closed.