DAYS 1-5 (SEPTEMBER 22-26)

High pressure builds to our north as low pressure evolves gradually over the next few days to our south. This is the result of a blocking pattern in the atmosphere. The high will have more influence on the sensible weather with dry conditions expected in most of the region for most of this period. Caveat: There is still uncertainty on the evolution of the low and its movement, which does leave at least far southern and southeastern areas vulnerable to some rain from Thursday night to Saturday. I’m leaning toward more of an offshore track. Either way, a long lasting northeasterly air flow will build seas and the result will be rough surf along the coast, especially east-facing and north-facing coastal areas. This, combined with astronomical high tides ups the chance for coastal flooding.

TODAY: Cloudy start, then clearing. Highs 60-67. Wind NE 5-15 MPH, gusts 20-25 MPH especially coast.

TONIGHT: Clouds return. Lows 47-54. Wind NE 5-15 MPH, a few higher gusts in coastal areas.

WEDNESDAY: Clouds give way to sun. Highs 60-67. Wind NE 10-20 MPH, higher gusts particularly coast.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT / THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy. Lows 47-54. Highs 60-67. Wind NE 10-20 MPH, higher gusts especially coastal areas.

THURSDAY NIGHT / FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy. Rain chances favor the South Coast. Lows 46-53. Highs 60-67. Wind NE 10-20 MPH except stronger Cape Cod / South Coast and higher gusts in all locations.

FRIDAY NIGHT / SATURDAY: Mostly cloudy. Rain chances favor eastern CT, RI, and southeastern MA. Lows 47-54. Highs 59-66. Wind NE 10-20 MPH except 20-30 MPH Cape Cod / South Coast, with higher gusts.

DAYS 6-10 (SEPTEMBER 27 – OCTOBER 1)

Blocking pattern remains in place with high pressure to the north and low pressure offshore early period, which does continue gusty winds and some rain chances especially southern and eastern locations. Afterward, a drying trend. Temperatures below to near normal.

DAYS 11-15 (OCTOBER 2-6)

Transition to zonal (west to east) flow with a shower chance early and again late period otherwise mostly dry weather. Temperatures somewhat variable but near to slightly above normal for the period.