DAYS 1-5 (SEPTEMBER 23-27)
No changes to the thought process of the evolution of blocking and the ocean storm we have to watch. High pressure builds to our north. Storm develops to our south. Leaning toward an elongation of low pressure initially with eventual domination coming from the eastern side of the elongated low, and a resultant track that is pretty far offshore but will still feature a loop back toward New England. This does not mean the region escapes impacts of wind and seas. That should be the most significant part of the event. Rainfall under the scenario I expect would be most likely from midday Saturday through Sunday, but not necessarily steady the entire time. I realize that some guidance has rain in the region as early as midday Friday. This is not out of the question. It still comes down to development and track of low and this continues to be monitored. Next update will start to detail more on wind gusts, coastal impacts, and overall timing including rain expectations / amounts. For now, I am not going to over-burden you with a too-wordy discussion because you’ll get hammered by that everywhere else and anything else I can say at this point would be fluff you don’t need. Onto the detailed forecast update…
TODAY: Lots of sun. Highs 60-67. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.
TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 45-52. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.
THURSDAY: More sunshine. Highs 60-67. Wind NE 5-15 MPH, higher gusts coast.
THURSDAY NIGHT: Increasing high clouds. Lows 45-53. Wind NE 5-15 MPH except 10-20 MPH and gusty coastal areas.
FRIDAY: Thickening overcast but still some sunshine possible especially north and west. Highs 59-66. Wind NE 10-20 MPH except 15-25 MPH coast with higher gusts.
FRIDAY NIGHT: Overcast. Lows 47-54. Wind NE 10-20 MPH except 20-30 MPH Cape / Island, higher gusts.
SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY: Overcast. Periods of rain. Temperatures generally steady 56-63. Wind NE 15-25 MPH, but gust potential 30+ MPH west of I-95 and 45+ MPH I-95 eastward, strongest Cape Cod. Coastal flooding potential.
DAYS 6-10 (SEPTEMBER 28 – OCTOBER 2)
Rain chances remain followed by a clearing trend early in the period. Pattern shifts back toward zonal. Overall drier, but shower chance returns end of period. Temperatures variable but overall near normal.
DAYS 11-15 (OCTOBER 3-7)
Zonal flow pattern. A couple systems can bring shower threats but overall pattern is dry, seasonable to mild.
Good morning and thank you TK.
53 up from 52, season low so far. Dp 46
Ocean: 62
Wordle: 5
Euro has backed off considerably on total rainfall. Still has rain but nothing like yesterday.
From what I can tell, all models call for at least some rain except the outlier NAM, which doesn’t want to play along and keeps it well SE at least through 84 hours. After that, don’t know but doesn’t look like it.
Biggest hit is delivered by the ICON.
Put the heat on last night as it just got too cold in the house. We weren’t about to sit in the living room with sweatshirts and blankets!!!!
Nice 5, JpDave.
I was a bit taken aback by the Euro op run and how relatively weak of a system it had. It’s AI still pretty strong.
Nice 5, JPD
Thanks TK !
Wordle: 4
Benefit of a NE wind in late September, it’s fairly mild, 60F this morning here.
Nice 4, Tom!
Thanks, TK. 48/46. Low was 43. I have to check when I’m awake but think it’s one degree higher than our low so far. Difference was that it was into the 50s sooner in the night. Lovely sleeping night
First word finder gave me nothing. Second gave me letters 1,2,3 in correct position
Wordle 4
Great 4, Vicki and same, nothing on my first guess.
Thank you TK!
Wordle: 2, I better play the lottery tonight because it was pure luck.