8:44AM

DAYS 1-5 (APRIL 19-23)
High pressure sliding off the Mid Atlantic Coast exerts enough influence on southern New England for a very nice day today. That won’t last. A cold front drops through from north to south later this evening with perhaps a passing rain shower, and then a broad low pressure area passes south of New England by Monday night, spreading its cloud canopy over the region but keeping most of its rain offshore to the south. There may be some rain near the South Coast, up to I-90 at most, before it retreats and moves away. But the quick-moving pattern continues and we’ll be back to fair weather early Tuesday, and showery weather later Tuesday as a strong cold front approaches, then passes, setting up a windy and much cooler Wednesday with fair weather. By Thursday, a warm front will be approaching, and clouds will be on the increase once again.
TODAY: Sun then increasing high clouds. Highs 55-62. Wind variable up to 10 MPH morning, SW 5-15 MPH afternoon.
TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Lows 40-47. Wind W 5-15 MPH.
MONDAY: Mostly cloudy. A period of rain possible near the South Coast mainly afternoon. Highs 47-54. Wind N up to 10 MPH.
MONDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Chance of rain South Coast early. Lows 40-47. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.
TUESDAY: Variably cloudy. Rain showers and a risk of a thunderstorm mid afternoon on west to east. Highs 53-60. Wind S 5-15 MPH.
TUESDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy with rain showers likely early, then clearing. Lows 38-45. Wind W 5-15 MPH.
WEDNESDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 46-53. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 32-39. Wind N 5-15 MPH, diminishing.
THURSDAY: Increasing cloudiness. Highs 48-55. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (APRIL 24-28)
Rain likely April 24. Rain showers possible April 26. Rain possible April 27 into April 28. Temperatures below normal.

DAYS 11-15 (APRIL 29-MAY 3)
Dry end to April. Rain showers possible in the early days of May. Temperatures near to below normal.

C-19 Chat Post – April 19 2020

9:10AM

DAYS 1-5 (APRIL 18-22)
Storm system unfolded as expected, from the start as rain in many areas to the flip to snow in most areas to the areas expected to stay as rain, to the snowfall amounts. Meteorology over modelology. Some of the model forecasts were very poor on this event. Mid spring snow events do not behave according to model depiction of them, in general. So now this system will wind down gradually today. With April daylight, the accumulating snow is pretty much done, even though it continues to fall as of 9:00AM over a large portion of the region. But as we go through the morning and midday, the atmosphere is warming and a lot of that snow will mix with and turn to light rain/drizzle before tapering to showers and gradually ending as drier air works in behind the departing low pressure area. And as is typical of spring, tomorrow you’d never know this happened as all the snow will be long gone and we’ll have a fair and much milder day ahead of a cold front. That front will slide across the region from north to south early Monday just before a wave of low pressure passes south of the region Monday night. This low should be a miss for most of the region but can be close enough for some South Coast rainfall late Monday. Tuesday looks milder again but yet another cold front will charge toward the region bringing a rain shower risk by Tuesday night, followed by fair and cooler weather Wednesday.
TODAY: Snow (rain South Coast) turns to light rain / drizzle from south to north then tapers to showers before ending west to east later. No additional snow accumulation. Highs 45-52, occurring late day. Wind N under 10 MPH morning, NW 5-15 MPH afternoon.
TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 35-43. Wind W 5-15 MPH.
SUNDAY: Sun then increasing high clouds. Highs 55-62. Wind variable up to 10 MPH morning, SW 5-15 MPH afternoon.
SUNDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Lows 40-47. Wind W 5-15 MPH.
MONDAY: Partly sunny morning. Mostly cloudy afternoon. Highs 47-54. Wind N up to 10 MPH.
MONDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Chance of rain South Coast. Lows 40-47. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.
TUESDAY: Variably cloudy. Highs 53-60. Wind S 5-15 MPH.
TUESDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Rain showers likely. Lows 38-45. Wind W 5-15 MPH.
WEDNESDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 46-53. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

DAYS 6-10 (APRIL 23-27)
Dry April 23. Rain likely April 24. Rain showers later April 25 into April 26. Dry April 27. Temperatures near to below normal.

DAYS 11-15 (APRIL 28-MAY 2)
Rain shower risk April 28 and possibly again by the first couple days of May. Temperatures near normal.

C-19 Chat Post – April 18 2020

7:29AM

DAYS 1-5 (APRIL 17-21)
You never call the snow season over in February, March, or even April, around here. Yes, it’s fairly rare to get measurable snow on any given day in April, but since Logan Airport averages over 1 inch of snow for the month of April, you know that it happens sometimes. Will Logan measure in this system? I think so. Will it be over 1 inch? Tough call. For snowfall accumulation in April you often need elevation, which will help in this situation, but it’s also going to be a nighttime event with cold air above us, even though the surface air will be above freezing and the ground temperatures considerably above freezing. So we have competing factors here with regards to accumulating snowfall. In fact it will be mild enough so that a fairly large portion of the region will see raindrops to start out before it cools enough for a flip to snow. I do think it may snow heavily enough for long enough during the dark hours to manage to get measurable snow right at the airport, but it may only be a thick coating, to perhaps 1 inch maximum, which will also be the case down the coast to north of Plymouth, over to near Providence RI, then southwestward into eastern CT. South of there, probably nothing more than flakes in the air in an otherwise mainly rain event, and even a burst of snow in those locations would be falling into air and onto ground to warm to really accumulate at all. Heading north from there is where 1 to 3 inches will accumulate, but mainly on grass, dirt, and cold vehicle tops, etc. The amounts will probably be on the lower side of that range and may not even make 1 inch from the Merrimack Valley to southeastern NH where the precipitation will be lighter. Add elevation, such as the Worcester Hills, then 3-5 inch amounts are possible, though I think that the lower side of that range is also the way it will go. You’d need heavier precipitation for as long as possible to get higher amounts and that may not be possible with the heavier bands remaining to the south, but there with a milder surface you’ll still need some elevation to realize anything more than the lower side of the range. For pavement and cement, cut these amounts at least in half. This event will be caused by low pressure passing just south of New England as it moves west to east and will wind down early Saturday, though it may take much of the day for clearing to begin. The balance of the weekend sets up to be nice on Sunday as a small area of high pressure moves off the Mid Atlantic and we turn mild with fair weather. Two systems will miss a phase on Monday, which will probably be an unsettled day with cloudiness and at least a chance of some rain, but the bulk of rainfall from low pressure passing to the south of the region may miss to the south. Still have to watch that as it’s not a certainty yet. A cold front will charge across the region west to east Tuesday with a rain shower threat.
TODAY: Sunshine followed by increasing clouds. Highs 45-52. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.
TONIGHT: Cloudy. Precipitation arrives as mostly rain, then turning to mainly snow, except mixed with rain at times Merrimack Valley and southeastern NH and down the eastern coastline to north of Plymouth, but mainly rain from Plymouth southward and westward along the South Coast region. See the discussion above for expected accumulations. Lows 32-39. Wind N up to 10 MPH.
SATURDAY: Cloudy with lingering rain/mix/snow morning. Breaking clouds afternoon. Highs 45-52. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.
SATURDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 35-43. Wind W 5-15 MPH.
SUNDAY: Sun then increasing high clouds. Highs 48-55. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.
SUNDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Lows 40-47. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.
MONDAY: Cloudy. Chance of rain. Highs 45-52. Wind variable up to 10 MPH except E 10-20 MPH near the South Coast.
MONDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Lows 40-47. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.
TUESDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of rain showers, mainly afternoon. Highs 50-57. Wind S 10-20 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (APRIL 22-26)
Dry April 22. Low pressure area impacts the region with a rain chance late April 23 and April 24, and another low probably tracking further north brings a rain shower threat sometime April 25 into April 26.

DAYS 11-15 (APRIL 27-MAY 1)
Temperatures near to below normal. Rain shower risk around April 28 and possibly again at the end of the period.

C-19 Chat Post – April 17 2020

7:16AM

DAYS 1-5 (APRIL 16-20)
A disturbance moving through the region early this morning produces snow showers. This will be fleeting and gone by about mid morning. Dry weather will dominate from late morning today through the daylight hours of Friday. The next low pressure wave moves into the region Friday night and exits Saturday. This system has enough cold air to work with so that snow will fall for part of the region, but it will depend on both elevation to some degree and intensity of precipitation to a greater degree. Based on this, the best chance to see accumulating snow will be along the I-90 belt and southward for some distance, but probably not so much along the South Coast where it will be too mild. There’s also less of a chance toward the north from around the Merrimack Valley to southern NH because the intensity may be too light to drag enough cold air down from above for accumulation more than just a coating. Still may need to tweak this as the system’s precipitation shield will be fairly narrow, so check tomorrow’s update. On the heels of this system will be another more potent low pressure area that brings a chance of rain for Monday, although recent trends for this on medium range guidance has been to shunt it a bit to the south.
TODAY: Mostly cloudy start with a few snow showers (snow or rain showers near the South Coast). Partly sunny mid morning on. Highs 45-52. Wind W 5-15 MPH.
TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 35-42. Wind W 5-15 MPH.
FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy. Highs 45-52. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.
FRIDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Snow/mix/rain arriving, expected as mostly rain along the South Coast and mostly snow elsewhere except possibly still mixed with rain Merrimack Valley and southern NH. Accumulation of snow a coating to 2 inches, most significant I-90 belt including southern MA, northeastern CT, and northern RI, with up to 3 inches possible in higher elevations. Lows 30-37. Wind N up to 10 MPH.
SATURDAY: Mostly cloudy with lingering rain/mix/snow to start, then becoming partly sunny. Highs 46-53. Wind W 5-15 MPH.
SATURDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 35-43. Wind W 5-15 MPH.
SUNDAY: Sun then increasing high clouds. Highs 48-55. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.
SUNDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Rain possible overnight. Lows 40-47. Wind NE up to 10 MPH.
MONDAY: Cloudy. Chance of rain. Temperatures steady in the 40s. Wind NE 10-20 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (APRIL 21-25)
Temperatures remain below normal. A few rain showers with a passing front April 21. Dry April 22-23. Chance of rain April 24. Clearing April 25.

DAYS 11-15 (APRIL 26-30)
Temperatures near to below normal. Rain shower risk around April 27-28. Dry weather either side.

C-19 Chat Post – April 16 2020

6:55AM

DAYS 1-5 (APRIL 15-19)
A series of disturbances will keep the pattern active during the next 5 days. The first will scoot just south of New England this morning with early light precipitation favoring the South Coast, mainly as rain, but a few raindrops & snowflakes possible up into the Boston area too. This will be quick to move out by late morning and this afternoon will be nicer, albeit cooler than yesterday. The next disturbance may produce a rain or snow shower Thursday morning before exiting for nice weather for the balance of the day. A slightly more robust system will come along later Friday, making its closest pass Friday night, with cold enough air in place for some mix/snow should the system come far enough north. For now, the greatest chance of precipitation will be across southern areas. Drier weather returns Saturday and rounds out the weekend on Sunday, although clouds may be already on the increase ahead of yet another approaching low pressure area by later Sunday.
TODAY: Cloudy start with rain likely South Coast and a touch of rain and possible rain/snow mix into Metro Boston, then clearing west to east remainder of morning. Mostly sunny afternoon. Highs 45-52. Wind NW up to 10 MPH.
TONIGHT: Variably cloudy. Lows 33-40. Wind W 5-15 MPH.
THURSDAY: Variably cloudy. A rain/mix/snow shower possible especially morning. Highs 45-52. Wind W 5-15 MPH.
THURSDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 35-42. Wind W 5-15 MPH.
FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy. Highs 45-52. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.
FRIDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. A period of rain/mix/snow possible. Lows 31-38. Wind N up to 10 MPH.
SATURDAY: Mostly cloudy with a risk of rain/mix to start, then becoming partly sunny. Highs 46-53. Wind W 5-15 MPH.
SATURDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 35-43. Wind W 5-15 MPH.
SUNDAY: Sun then increasing high clouds. Highs 48-55. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (APRIL 20-24)
Temperatures below to near normal. Rain chances about April 20 and 24. Dry weather in between.

DAYS 11-15 (APRIL 25-29)
Temperatures near to below normal. Rain shower risk around April 27-28. Dry weather either side.

C-19 Chat Post – April 15 2020

7:25AM

DAYS 1-5 (APRIL 14-18)
Today will be the pick of the week, a little breezy, but dry and mild. The rest of the week will feature cooler to even colder conditions. Currently it looks like a disturbance will pass south of the region bringing only a brief rain chance to the South Coast early Wednesday, another weak disturbance will be moving rather quickly along and bring the risk of a shower of rain or mixed precipitation early Thursday, and then we will have to watch a wave of low pressure also set to pass south of the region around Friday night with a rain/mix/snow threat. Dry weather returns Saturday.
TODAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 56-63. Wind W 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.
TONIGHT: Clouding over. Lows 38-44. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.
WEDNESDAY: Cloudy morning with a risk of rain South Coast. Partly sunny afternoon. Highs 45-52. Wind up to 10 MPH.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Lows 33-40. Wind W 5-15 MPH.
THURSDAY: Variably cloudy. A rain/mix/snow shower possible especially morning. Highs 45-52. Wind W 5-15 MPH.
THURSDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 35-42. Wind W 5-15 MPH.
FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy. Highs 45-52. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.
FRIDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. A period of rain/mix/snow possible. Lows 31-38. Wind N up to 10 MPH.
SATURDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 48-55. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (APRIL 19-23)
Temperatures below normal. Much of this period will be dry except for potential rain event about April 20.

DAYS 11-15 (APRIL 24-28)
Temperatures near to below normal. Risk of unsettled weather around April 24 and again by the end of the period.

C-19 Chat Post – April 14 2020

7:10AM

DAYS 1-5 (APRIL 13-17)
It’s stormy Monday time. Low pressure tracks northwest of the area today but it’s being accompanied by an area of very strong winds above the ground blowing out of the south, and some of these strong wind gusts can be pulled down to ground level with pockets of heavier rainfall moving through during the day, especially this afternoon. Even without that, it will be a breezy day anyway, though rather mild since the air is moving up from the south. Watch for pockets of wind damage and power outages, with the strongest wind gusts closer to the South Coast including Cape Cod, as well as some higher elevations. Quick improvement overnight tonight and a nice day Tuesday before a cold front settles through and turns it much cooler for midweek. A couple disturbances will come along during midweek, one passing south of the region Wednesday which may keep its precipitation shield confined to near the South Coast, at least south of I-90, and the second which may bring a few showers of rain and even mix/snow to the region later Thursday. When we get to Friday we may be watching yet another disturbance approaching by later in the day, but being a little unsure about this system will just lean toward clouds being dominant for now.
TODAY: Cloudy. Periods of rain. Occasional heavier showers. Chance of thunderstorms. Highs 50-57 South Coast, 55-62 elsewhere. Wind S increasing to sustained 15-25 MPH inland and 25-35 MPH coastal areas and higher elevations with gusts over 40 MPH interior and over 50 MPH coastal areas and higher elevations. Isolated gusts of over 50 MPH possible interior areas and over 60 MPH possible coastal areas and higher elevations.
TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy with rain showers evening. Partly cloudy overnight. Lows 43-50. Wind SW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.
TUESDAY: Partly cloudy. Highs 56-63. Wind W 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.
TUESDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Lows 40-47. Wind N 5-15 MPH.
WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy. A period of rain and possible mix, favoring the South Coast. Highs 45-52. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Lows 35-42. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.
THURSDAY: Variably cloudy. A rain or snow shower possible especially late-day. Highs 45-52. Wind W 10-20 MPH.
THURSDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. A rain or snow shower possible especially evening. Lows 35-42. Wind W 5-15 MPH.
FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy. Highs 45-52. Wind variable 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (APRIL 18-22)
Temperatures below normal. Will have to watch for a couple precipitation threats from passing waves of low pressure. The main threats are early April 18 that may include mix/snow, and April 20 that would be a rain situation, and possibly another rain threat at the very end of the period.

DAYS 11-15 (APRIL 23-27)
Temperatures near to below normal. Risk of unsettled weather around April 24 with a drier trend thereafter.

C-19 Chat Post – April 13 2020

8:22AM

DAYS 1-5 (APRIL 12-16)
For those celebrating Easter today in whatever limited way you can do it, you will find some very nice weather to accompany any outside activity, although it does start out chilly this morning before warming up nicely. There will be a breeze at times and some variable cloud cover at times, especially this afternoon. These clouds we see today are the forerunners of a storm system that is going to impact the region in a significant way Monday with rain and wind. There is the potential for damaging wind gusts, especially in the afternoon. These should occur in pockets rather than in a widespread fashion, as it’s the type of set-up that very strong winds are blowing from the south above the ground, and pockets of heavier rain can push some of these winds down to the surface, creating powerful gusts. Wind damage and power outages will certainly be a problem in some locations. Quick improvement comes Tuesday, a breezy but still very mild day behind the departing system. But colder air quickly moves in at night and the front that brings it will sit just to the south of the region while a wave of low pressure moves along it, turning Wednesday into a chilly and unsettled day, although the current indications are that precipitation from that low pressure wave would be mostly light and over southern locations – something to keep an eye on. Nevertheless, the atmosphere has another disturbance it will throw at us from the west later Thursday when a few rain and even snow showers may occur with chilly air in place.
TODAY: Sun/cloud mix. Highs 55-62. Wind SW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts especially afternoon.
TONIGHT: Clouding up. Lows 45-52. Wind S 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.
MONDAY: Cloudy. Periods of rain. Occasional heavier showers. Chance of thunderstorms. Highs 50-57 South Coast, 55-62 elsewhere. Wind S increasing to sustained 15-25 MPH inland and 25-35 MPH coastal areas and higher elevations with gusts over 40 MPH interior and over 50 MPH coastal areas and higher elevations. Isolated gusts of over 50 MPH possible interior areas and over 60 MPH possible coastal areas and higher elevations.
MONDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy with rain showers evening. Partly cloudy overnight. Lows 43-50. Wind SW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.
TUESDAY: Partly cloudy. Highs 60-67. Wind SW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.
TUESDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Lows 40-47. Wind N 5-15 MPH.
WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy. A period of rain and possible mix, favoring southern areas. Highs 45-52. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Lows 35-42. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.
THURSDAY: Variably cloudy. A rain or snow shower possible especially late-day or evening. Highs 45-52. Wind W 10-20 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (APRIL 17-21)
Temperatures below normal. Will have to watch for a couple precipitation threats from passing waves of low pressure. The main threats are late April 17 that may include mix/snow, and April 20 that would be a rain situation.

DAYS 11-15 (APRIL 22-26)
Temperatures near to below normal. Risk of unsettled weather favoring the April 22-24 window. Drier weather at the end of the period.