DAYS 1-5 (JUNE 15-19)

Unsettled weather will continue today as additional showers form in the area as a result of humid air, an upper level low pressure trough, and a surface cold front moving slowly through the region. While most times it won’t be raining in any given location, any location may see passing showers and downpours, even some thunder remains a possibility too. Once the front gets by the region it will dry out this evening and tonight. High pressure builds in for Wednesday and Thursday but above there will still be a couple upper level disturbances which bring colder air in aloft and help initiate diurnal cloud development. This is expected both of those days, especially Thursday with the coldest pocket of air will be passing by above. Surface high pressure slides offshore Friday when it warms up nicely, and this continues into Saturday but may be interrupted by showers and thunderstorms as a cold front moves into the region from west to east…

TODAY: Mostly cloudy through mid afternoon with episodic showers and a chance of thunderstorms. Partly sunny late afternoon on but still with the possibility of additional passing showers and perhaps a thunderstorm. Highs 71-78. Dew point lower to middle 60s. Wind S up to 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. Patchy ground fog forming. Lows 52-59. Dew point lower 50s. Wind NW up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Partly cloudy. Highs 74-81 but may turn cooler in some coastal areas. Dew point upper 40s. Wind NW up to 10 MPH but possible coastal sea breezes.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 52-59. Dew point upper 40s. Wind NW to variable under 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 75-82, coolest coastal areas. Dew point lower 50s. Wind variable to NW up to 10 MPH but coastal sea breezes possible.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Lows 55-62. Dew point lower 50s. Wind variable to S up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 80-87, cooler South Coast. Dew point upper 50s to lower 60s. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. A few areas of ground fog interior lower elevations. Lows 60-67. Dew point lower 60s. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Partly sunny. Chance of showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon. Highs 81-88. Dew point middle to upper 60s. Wind SW 10-20 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JUNE 20-24)

West-to-east “zonal” flow will be the weather pattern as we reach the summer solstice on June 20 and for the early days of summer 2021. However this flow does carry disturbances in it, and one such with a warm front / cold front combo with low pressure passing to the north will bring some unsettled weather at some point later June 21 into June 22 based on current timing, and another wet weather system may make a run at the region at the end of the period.

DAYS 11-15 (JUNE 25-29)

Overall west-to-east flow pattern is expected to continue but slowly weakening with a northward lifting of the jet stream. This is a warm pattern with limited opportunities for showers and thunderstorms.

C-19 Chat Post – June 15 2021

DAYS 1-5 (JUNE 14-18)

Today and Tuesday will be the unsettled days of the “work week” as a couple of frontal systems traverse the region underneath a low pressure trough. This will result in several opportunities for showers and thunderstorms. Wednesday and Thursday, high pressure will build in from the west with fair and seasonable weather, but some lingering troughiness and chilly air above will trigger diurnal cloud development each of those days with the sun’s heating. Right now, leaving showers out of the forecast. Friday, that high pressure area will slide offshore and we’ll warm up nicely.

TODAY: Most sunshine early to mid morning in eastern areas otherwise mostly cloudy with episodic showers and embedded thunderstorms. Highs 68-75. Dew point near 60. Wind S 5-15 MPH, gusts around 20 MPH.

TONIGHT: Variably cloudy with showers likely and a chance of thunderstorms evening. Partly cloudy with patches of fog forming overnight. Lows 58-65. Dew point upper 50s. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Variably cloudy. Episodes of showers and thunderstorms especially through mid afternoon. Highs 71-78. Dew point lower 60s. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Patchy ground fog forming. Lows 51-58. Dew point lower 50s. Wind W under 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 74-81 but may turn cooler in some coastal areas. Dew point upper 40s. Wind NW up to 10 MPH but possible coastal sea breezes.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 52-59. Dew point upper 40s. Wind NW to variable under 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Partly cloudy. Highs 75-82, coolest coastal areas. Dew pinte lower 50s. Wind variable to NW up to 10 MPH but coastal sea breezes possible.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Lows 55-62. Dew point lower 50s. Wind variable to S up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 80-87, cooler South Coast. Dew point upper 50s to lower 60s. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JUNE 19-23)

West-to-east flow dominates the pattern. A cold frontal passage brings a shower and thunderstorm chance June 19 and the next warm front / cold front combo is due later June 21 and June 22 with additional unsettled weather. The summer solstice occurs late evening of June 20.

DAYS 11-15 (JUNE 24-28)

Overall west-to-east flow pattern is expected to continue but slowly weaken. Wave of low pressure brings a rain chance early in the period then high pressure shifting offshore may bring warmer/hotter weather later in the period.

C-19 Chat Post – June 14 2021

DAYS 1-5 (JUNE 13-17)

After a wet start to Saturday, it evolved into quite the nice day as drier air arrived from north to south thanks to high pressure moving toward the region from eastern Canada. This high will be overhead to just offshore today, providing us with another nice and slightly warmer day. A warm front will approach from the west tonight, returning more cloudiness to the region and eventually some showers overnight into Monday morning before we get briefly into a warm and humid air mass behind the warm front and ahead of an approaching cold front, which will pass through Monday evening. This results in the opportunity for additional showers and thunderstorms during the day Monday into Monday evening before pushing offshore. But the front will be close by and a wave of low pressure may form on it and bring another round of showers at least to southeastern MA at some point Tuesday, while upper level low pressure crosses the entire region and also brings the chance of diurnally-driven showers that day. Finally, this conglomeration moves away and high pressure builds in with fair and seasonable weather for the middle of the coming week…

TODAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 76-83. Dew point middle 50s to near 60. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Showers likely late evening and overnight. Areas of fog. Lows 56-63. Dew point middle to upper 50s. Wind S up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Variably cloudy. Showers most likely early morning. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms thereafter. Highs 70-77. Dew point lower 60s. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy with showers likely and a chance of thunderstorms evening. Partly cloudy with patches of fog forming overnight. Lows 52-59. Dew point falling to lower 50s. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy with a period of widespread showers over southeastern MA. Sun/cloud mix elsewhere with isolated to scattered afternoon showers and possibly a thunderstorm. Highs 71-78. Dew point 50s. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Patchy ground fog forming. Lows 51-58. Dew point lower 50s. Wind W under 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Sunny to partly cloudy. Highs 74-81 but may turn cooler in some coastal areas. Dew point lower 50s. Wind NW up to 10 MPH but possible coastal sea breezes.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Patchy ground fog in lower elevations. Lows 52-59. Dew point lower 50s. Wind NW to variable under 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 75-82, coolest coastal areas. Wind variable to NW up to 10 MPH but coastal sea breezes possible.

DAYS 6-10 (JUNE 18-22)

West-to-east flow dominates the pattern. Brief warming to a little above normal June 18-19 with a shower and thunderstorm chance June 19 with a frontal passage. Fair weather expected June 20 into June 21 but a disturbance may return more humid air and a chance of showers and thunderstorms to the region later in the period. The summer solstice occurs late evening of June 20.

DAYS 11-15 (JUNE 23-27)

The west-to-east (zonal) flow pattern should continue to start this period with a shower threat possible early in the period depending on system timing. With time we may start to transition to a warmer/hotter set-up, but this remains a low confidence outlook at this time.

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C-19 Chat Post – June 13 2021

DAYS 1-5 (JUNE 12-16)

The first half of Saturday morning and Sunday evening / night will be the wettest parts of the weekend which will otherwise feature mostly dry weather, below normal temperatures today and a warm-up for Sunday. A vigorous disturbance is moving rapidly southeastward through the region early this morning with numerous showers, but as I write this, the showers have already exited southern NH and northern MA and will be making their way out of the remainder of the WHW forecast area into mid morning. After that, it’s a dry day, but clouds will be a little stubborn to give up for a while as it takes some time for drier air to work into the region from north to south. With a light and variable wind, as we get the subtle solar heating we do end up with, a light sea breeze will develop in most coastal areas. So, outdoor plans today are best executed from late morning on with a light jacket or sweatshirt handy. If you have Saturday evening plans, a jacket or sweatshirt is recommended for outdoor time as it will be on the cool side, but dry. A small area of high pressure to the east of the region on Sunday will help warm up up with a south to southwest air flow. An approaching and weakening cold front from the west will hold off its arrival until sometime in the evening or at night, when a round of numerous showers and possibly a few embedded thunderstorms will move into the region. This activity may linger into early Monday before it exits with the passage of the weakening front, but a stronger cold front will approach later Monday and trigger another round of at least scattered to possibly a broken line of showers and potential thunderstorms. The intensity of this activity will be determined by the amount of daytime heating that can occur before it, and this will be a function of how much sun occurs during the day. I expect a variable amount of cloudiness so if there is limited sunshine Monday this can limit the potency of showers and storms heading in from the west. That stronger front will move offshore later Monday night, ending that threat, but a pool of cold air above still has to move across the region Tuesday, and this will be a set-up for pop up instability showers and perhaps a thunderstorm that afternoon, but this activity will be more isolated. By Wednesday, the lingering cool pool aloft should be weaker so that we just see some clouds popping up, but no shower activity here, with any of that likely confined to the mountains north and west of the WHW forecast area.

TODAY: Cloudy start with numerous showers ending from northwest to southeast into mid morning. Clouds eventually break for sun north to south. Highs 67-74, coolest coast. Dew point lower 50s. Wind E 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. Areas of fog especially lower elevations. Lows 52-59. Dew point lower 50s. Wind SE under 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 76-83. Dew point middle 50s. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm late evening and overnight. Areas of fog. Lows 56-63. Dew point middle to upper 50s. Wind S up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Variably cloudy. Showers most likely early morning. Chance of showers and thunderstorms west to east late-day. Highs 70-77. Dew point near 60. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy with showers likely and a chance of thunderstorms evening. Partly cloudy with patches of fog forming overnight. Lows 52-59. Dew point falling to lower 50s. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Sun/cloud mix. Isolated afternoon showers and possibly a thunderstorm. Highs 71-78. Dew point 50s. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Patchy ground fog forming. Lows 51-58. Dew point lower 50s. Wind W under 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Sunny to partly cloudy. Highs 74-81 but may turn cooler in some coastal areas. Wind W up to 10 MPH but possible coastal sea breezes.

DAYS 6-10 (JUNE 17-21)

Overall pattern features a low pressure trough in southeastern Canada and a mostly west-to-east air flow over New England. Temperatures near to slightly below normal but will spike briefly around June 18 possibly into June 19. The greatest risk of showers and thunderstorms will occur around June 19 when a frontal system is expected to move through the region from west to east. The summer solstice occurs late evening of June 20.

DAYS 11-15 (JUNE 22-26)

The west-to-east (zonal) flow pattern should continue to start this period with a shower/thunderstorm threat with a frontal passage June 22 or 23. Later in the period we may start to transition to a warmer/hotter set-up, but sometimes this is indicated by guidance earlier than it actually takes place, so this is a low confidence mention at this point.

C-19 Chat Post – June 12 2021

DAYS 1-5 (JUNE 11-15)

If you needed a reminder that technically it’s not summer yet, today will be it. Many areas will sit 20 to 30 degrees cooler than they were just 3 days ago. A low pressure trough will be moving down into New England from Canada, passing through the region later today through early Saturday, bringing with it a couple opportunities for showers, mainly in isolated to scattered form in southern NH to northern MA this afternoon and evening, and a little bit more widespread but not long-lasting early Saturday morning from northwest to southeast across the region before they exit. This will leave the vast majority of Saturday’s hours rain-free, although it will still be on the cool side as high pressure in eastern Canada behind the disturbance will initiate an easterly wind across our region. That high pressure area slides to the southeast and into the Atlantic waters east of New England by Sunday, turning our wind more southerly and warming the region up, but not nearly to the levels we experienced earlier this week. A slight uptick in humidity Sunday will be felt by those most sensitive to it, otherwise it won’t really be that noticeable. Meanwhile a disturbance will be approaching from the west on Sunday, but recent trends in short range guidance have been to slow this system’s arrival, and I believe this to be accurate enough that I am going to keep rain out of the daytime portion of my Sunday forecast and just add a chance of a shower or t-storm at night. This system will take its time passing through so that we see a couple opportunities for showers and possible thunderstorms during Monday, but not looking for a wash-out that day, just an unsettled day. Drier weather should arrive as this system exits to the east by Tuesday based on current expected timing.

TODAY: Mostly sunny eastern CT / RI / southern MA and partly sunny north to start, then clouds advancing and dominating all areas as the day goes on. Isolated to scattered showers southern NH and northern MA afternoon. Highs 65-72, coolest coast. Dry – dew point upper 40s to lower 50s. Wind E 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Isolated to scattered showers mostly overnight. Lows 52-59. Dew point near 50. Wind SE under 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Mostly cloudy start with scattered to numerous showers early morning, exiting northwest to southeast mid morning, then sun/cloud mix. Highs 67-74, coolest coast. Dew point lower 50s. Wind E 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Areas of fog especially lower elevations. Lows 52-59. Dew point lower 50s. Wind SE under 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 72-79. Dew point middle 50s. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Patchy ground fog forming. Isolated showers and a slight chance of a thunderstorm. Lows 56-63. Dew point middle 50s. Wind S up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Variably cloudy. Possible showers and thunderstorms. Highs 68-75. Dew point near 60. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Chance of a shower or thunderstorm early. Patchy ground fog forming. Lows 52-59. Dew point falling to near 50. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Partly cloudy. Highs 71-78. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JUNE 16-20)

Overall pattern features a low pressure trough in southeastern Canada and a mostly west-to-east air flow over New England. Temperatures near to slightly below normal but may spike briefly around June 18. A few rounds of showers and thunderstorms may occur with passing disturbances but much of the time will be rain-free. Summer arrives with the solstice late at night on June 20.

DAYS 11-15 (JUNE 21-25)

The first days of summer are expected to feature a pattern similar to the one during the last days of spring, overall west to east flow across the Northeast, with a tendency for a weak low pressure trough keeping significant heat from establishing and sending disturbances along with a couple shower and thunderstorm chances, but mostly dry overall.

C-19 Chat Post – June 11 2021

DAYS 1-5 (JUNE 10-14)

With the early-season heatwave behind us, we now focus on a new pattern. This one is cooler and lacks high humidity, but will also be somewhat unsettled, but not really wet. Does that make sense? It will. Read on. For several days we had a ride of high pressure parked offshore of the Atlantic Coast, the famed “Bermuda High” in its early season form, and that resulted in our heat, of course with regional exceptions, like the cooler South Coast. Now, we’ll be in a pattern where the overall fair flow above us is mostly west to east, but around the base of a mean trough of low pressure in eastern Canada. Through Friday, surface high pressure to our north will provide a generally light easterly air flow as low pressure heads out well south of New England later Friday along the frontal boundary that went by yesterday. Once upon a time it looked like that system may threaten us with rain, but that won’t be the case. We will have to look to the north though for an approaching disturbance by Friday night which will pass through by early Saturday, maybe resulting in a few light showers across the region. This system will reinforce the cooler air that arrived overnight, so the net result is we’ll have three days of near to slightly below normal daytime temperatures today through Saturday and with generally rain-free weather. High pressure at the surface shifts offshore and a disturbance approaches from the west Sunday, and that day will be a bit warmer and slightly more humid here. We will have to watch for some shower and thunderstorm activity Sunday afternoon and evening, and with this being a somewhat more vigorous disturbance we’ll have to keep an eye out for stronger storms. Upper level low pressure will strengthen a bit in southeastern Canada, just north of New England, through Monday when we may see another round or two of showers and possible thunderstorms with a couple low pressure troughs swinging through the region.

TODAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 75-82, coolest eastern coastal areas through Cape Cod. Drier – dew point falling to the 40s. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Clear inland, coastal clouds possible. Lows 50-57. Dry – dew point middle 40s. Wind NE to E up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 65-72, coolest coast. Dry – dew point upper 40s to lower 50s. Wind E 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Chance of a few showers overnight. Patches of fog forming interior lower elevations. Lows 52-59. Dew point lower 50s. Wind E under 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Partly cloudy. Chance of a few showers early morning. Highs 67-74, coolest coast. Dew point lower 50s. Wind E 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Areas of fog especially lower elevations. Lows 52-59. Dew point lower 50s. Wind SE under 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Partly sunny. Chance of showers and thunderstorms afternoon and evening. Highs 72-79. Dew point near 60. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Patchy ground fog. Lows 55-62. Dew point lower to middle 50s. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Variably cloudy. Possible showers and thunderstorms. Highs 68-75. Dew point middle to upper 50s. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JUNE 15-19)

Overall pattern features a low pressure trough in southeastern Canada and a mostly west-to-east air flow over New England. Temperatures near to slightly below normal early to mid period may spike briefly around June 18. A few rounds of showers and thunderstorms may occur with passing disturbances but much of the time will be rain-free.

DAYS 11-15 (JUNE 20-24)

As we welcome summer with the solstice late on June 20, the overall pattern looks similar with a general west to east flow and still a tendency for a little troughing in the northeastern US. This pattern would produce temperatures not far from normal, maybe a touch below normal overall, and a weak disturbance or two providing a shower threat with overall dry weather.

C-19 Chat Post – June 10 2021

DAYS 1-5 (JUNE 9-13)

This is the final day of the early-season heat wave, and when we break it, the heat won’t be returning any time soon, as the cooling trend that takes place the next few days is a representation of the overall trend for a while. However, we focus in this section on the next 5 days, and it starts with one more hot and humid day today for most of the region, of course still somewhat cooler as it has been daily along the South Coast and over Cape Cod where the wind flow has been at least partially off cooler ocean water. Some lingering moisture at mid levels of the atmosphere, left over from yesterday’s convective activity around the Northeast, has been enough to drop some light rain on parts of the region overnight through the first couple hours of daylight. In fact, the sun shining low in the eastern sky through a break in the clouds resulted in a fairly rare morning rainbow visible in some areas, including here at the WHW headquarters in Woburn. I’ll share a link to a photo of it a bit later. Those very light showers will exit in short order, and we’ll be left with a sun/cloud mix as it heats up again. But this time, a real change is on the way, in the form of a fairly strong cold front coming down from the north northeast and sweeping across the region this afternoon and evening. Despite the significant change in air mass, there is not a great deal of support for widespread shower and thunderstorm activity with this front, so I’m just expecting isolated to scattered activity to pop up ahead of and along the front starting around midday in southern NH and progressing southward so that the activity exits via the South Coast early this evening. Behind this comes a lowering of temperature and dew point to much more comfortable levels for Thursday with a north to northeasterly air flow, and maybe even feeling a bit on the chilly side by Friday morning as the wind blows from the east. That will be the coolest day of the next 5, though Saturday will show very little recovery in temperature after a disturbance passes by with perhaps a morning shower then drying out but with a continued easterly air flow. The wind will turn more southerly on Sunday ahead of an approaching trough and disturbance from the west, so it will warm up a bit, and the humidity will come up a tad but not really to “noticeable” levels. That disturbance may have some bite to it so we’ll have to be on the watch for showers and potentially some heavier thunderstorms by Sunday afternoon and evening. But that is day 5 so there is plenty of time to study the details for that one… One more reminder: The sun will rise partially eclipsed just after 5:00 a.m. Thursday, peaking just after 5:30 a.m. with more than half of it moon-covered, and then the spectacle ends a bit after 6:00 a.m. I do expect the sky to be mostly clear for this across the region but there may be a few clouds. USE EYE PROTECTION if you plan to view this. Even a partially blocked sun low on the horizon can still damage your eyes if you look at it directly.

TODAY: Considerably cloudy with light showers exiting eastern areas early. Sun/cloud mix remainder of day – isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms southern NH and northern MA midday through mid afternoon and southern MA as well as eastern CT & RI mid afternoon through early evening, with brief but heavy downpours possible in some. Highs 85-92, cooler South Coast / Cape Cod. Very humid – dew point near 70. Wind W 5-15 MPH, but can be variable and gusty near any showers/storms.

TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. Areas of ground fog especially in lower elevations. Lows 57-64. Lowering humidity – dew point falling through 60s into the 50s. Wind N up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Sun and passing clouds. Highs 75-82, coolest eastern coastal areas through Cape Cod. Drier – dew point falling to the 40s. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Clear inland, coastal clouds possible. Lows 50-57. Dry – dew point middle 40s. Wind NE to E up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 65-72, coolest coast. Dry – dew point upper 40s to lower 50s. Wind E 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Patches of fog forming interior lower elevations. Lows 52-59. Dew point lower 50s. Wind E under 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Partly cloudy. Chance of a few showers early morning. Highs 67-74, coolest coast. Dew point lower 50s. Wind E 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Areas of fog especially lower elevations. Lows 52-59. Dew point lower 50s. Wind SE under 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Partly sunny. Chance of showers and thunderstorms afternoon and evening. Highs 72-79. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JUNE 14-18)

Upper level low pressure crosses the region early next week sending a couple disturbances through with a couple rounds of showers/t-storms possible, then the flow flattens to more westerly but still a weak trough in the region with mostly dry but seasonable to slightly below normal temperatures expected into late week. Approaching disturbance at the very end of the period may help up-tick the warmth and humidity by June 18.

DAYS 11-15 (JUNE 19-23)

As we transition from the end of spring to the start of summer (solstice late on June 20) the general pattern is expected to feature an overall west to east flow and still a tendency for a little troughing in the northeastern US. This pattern would produce temperatures not far from normal, maybe a touch below normal overall, and a weak disturbance or two providing a shower threat with overall dry weather.

C-19 Chat Post – June 9 2021

DAYS 1-5 (JUNE 8-12)

“The heat goes on” as the well-used phrase goes, and it does here for another two days, but we are beyond the hottest and entering the most humid part of the stretch. As mentioned on yesterday’s discussion, moisture associated with a well-traveled disturbance is arriving from the southwest and will bump up our dew point today while the temperature aloft drops just so slightly, and this will allow for pop up showers and thunderstorms to form this afternoon and linger until this evening. Not everywhere will see one of these, and there may be a few locations that get tagged by one or two of them, which can produce torrential downpours and of course some lightning, so be on the look-out if you have outdoor plans. And as a reminder, if you are outside or working in a hot environment, stay hydrated! It doesn’t take much to dehydrate in weather like this and sometimes you don’t even feel it coming on. Our mugginess will be hanging around into Wednesday but a cold front will coming along from the north late in the day and at night. We’ll see a few more showers and storms ahead of and along this front, though it doesn’t look like super-well-organized or widespread severe activity. Can’t really ever rule out a briefly stronger storm though in a few locations. Behind this front comes a dew point crash and a temperature decline for Thursday, which will feel very refreshing thanks to high pressure from Canada. One adjustment I am making to this forecast is taking the rain threat for later Friday that I had in yesterday’s update out of today’s update, as the trend is to keep any additional moisture to the south and a cooler maritime polar air mass in place late this week, including into the start of the weekend. One more reminder: Keeping an eye on the sky conditions for sunrise Thursday when we’ll have a partial solar eclipse ongoing, peaking about 5:30 a.m., less than a half hour after sunrise. If it is clear enough to view it, remember to use solar eclipse eye protection if you plan to view it.

TODAY: Partly sunny. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms possible mainly mid to afternoon to about sunset, with any of these possibly producing torrential downpours and quick localized street flooding. Highs 88-95 except cooler South Coast and Cape Cod. Very humid – dew point near 70. Wind SW 5-15 MPH, can be briefly variable and gusty around any showers/storms.

TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. Areas of fog especially South Coast and interior lower elevations. Lows 68-75. Very humid – dew point near 70. Wind WSW under 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Partly sunny. Chance of showers and thunderstorms midday and afternoon. Highs 85-92, cooler South Coast / Cape Cod. Very humid – dew point near 70. Wind WSW 5-15 MPH, a few higher gusts possible.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy evening, partly to mostly clear overnight. Patches of ground fog forming. Lows 60-67. Lowering humidity – dew point falling through 60s. Wind shifting to N 5-15 MPH then diminishing.

THURSDAY: Sun and passing clouds. Highs 75-82, coolest eastern coastal areas through Cape Cod. Drier – dew point falling through 50s. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Clear inland, coastal clouds possible. Lows 51-58. Dry – dew point upper 40s. Wind NE to E up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 65-72, coolest coast. Wind E 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 52-59. Wind E under 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Partly cloudy. Highs 67-74, coolest coast. Wind E 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JUNE 13-17)

Generally zonal (west to east) flow pattern expected. High pressure slides to the east of the region by June 13 with a warm-up. Approaching disturbance from the west may bring a rain shower later that day or at night. High pressure builds in with dry, seasonable weather for June 14 then a warm front may approach with a shower threat June 15 followed by a cold front with a shower/thunderstorm chance June 16. If that timing works out, high pressure would move in with dry weather at the end of the period behind the cold front.

DAYS 11-15 (JUNE 18-22)

Continuation of zonal flow pattern with variable temperatures not overly far from seasonal normals, and a couple chances for showers/t-storms with passing disturbances as we head toward the summer solstice (which occurs late at night on June 20).