Tuesday Forecast

7:22AM

DAYS 1-5 (JANUARY 26-30)…
Weak low pressure will pass well north of southern New England today and tonight. Its trailing cold front will pass this evening then slow down offshore Wednesday. This system will bring some cloudiness today into Wednesday but no more than a passing rain shower this evening. A pair of systems, one in the polar jet stream passing through the Great Lakes and another with the subtropical jet stream passing south of New England Thursday night, are expected to stay separated and not really interact until beyond the region Friday. This will prevent a significant storm and just result in the risk of a bit of snow shower activity. A weak area of high pressure will bring fair weather Saturday.
TUESDAY: Variably cloudy. A late-day rain shower possible mainly northwest of Boston. Highs 43-50. Wind SW 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.
TONIGHT: Variably cloudy. An evening rain shower possible. Lows 33-40. Wind SW to W 5-15 MPH and gusty.
WEDNESDAY: Lots of clouds to start, then increasing sunshine. Highs 36-43. Wind W 5-15 MPH.
THURSDAY: Sunshine during the day. Clouds moving in with a risk of snow showers overnight. Lows 18-25. Highs in the 30s.
FRIDAY: Mostly to partly cloudy and windy. Risk of snow showers early. Lows in the 20s. Highs in the 30s.
SATURDAY: Partly cloudy. Lows 15-25. Highs in the 30s.

DAYS 6-10 (JANUARY 31-FEBRUARY 4)…
A few periods of unsettled weather, more cloudiness than significant precipitation events, January 31 through February 3, though with variable temperatures will have to watch for possible mix/frozen precipitation at some point. Should turn dry and colder at the end of the period.

DAYS 11-15 (FEBRUARY 5-9)…
An overall fairly quiet pattern with variable temperatures.

Monday Forecast

7:28AM

DAYS 1-5 (JANUARY 25-29)…
High pressure brings fair weather today. Weak low passes to north late Tuesday and its cold front will slow down offshore Wednesday. Low pressure moves up along this front later in the week. Right now think this week be a close call but stay mostly offshore.
TODAY: Mostly sunny. Clouds from the west late. Highs in the 30s. Wind light W.
TONIGHT: Variably cloudy. Lows 25-32. Wind light W.
TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Spotty light freezing rain/drizzle southern NH and northern MA early. Scattered rain showers afternoon. Highs in the 40s.
WEDNESDAY: Partly sunny. Lows 25-32. Highs 35-42.
THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy. Risk of mix/snow southeastern MA late. Lows 18-25. Highs in the 30s.
FRIDAY: Mostly to partly cloudy and windy. Temperatures steady in 30s.

DAYS 6-10 (JANUARY 30-FEBRUARY 3)…
Fair January 30. Periods of unsettled
weather possible to end January and start February as a frontal system may be nearby with mild air trying to push up from the south while a cold high builds across eastern Canada.

DAYS 11-15 (FEBRUARY 4-8)…
Weak weather systems possible around February 4 and 6 otherwise a generally quiet weather pattern expected during this period with temperatures near to above normal.

Sunday Forecast

8:17AM

DAYS 1-5 (JANUARY 24-28)…
Looking back: The storm did MOSTLY as expected, but I was too low on my snow numbers for the immediate North Shore through Boston and its immediate outskirts, as well as my own area in the northwest suburbs. A pair of persistent snow bands in these locations while the snow shield was quasi-stationary on the storm’s pivot added more snow than I had forecast.
All that remains: Other than any snow cleanup, what lingers today is one more round of coastal flooding at this morning’s high tide in areas prone to it.
Looking ahead: A much quieter week of weather is ahead with fair and chilly weather today and Monday though a weak disturbance will bring some clouds across the region tonight. Milder air dominates Tuesday but with cloudiness and a risk of a spotty patch or 2 of freezing rain/drizzle mainly northern MA and southern NH first thing in the morning as a warm front passes – not a widespread and dangerous situation, then a chance of rain showers ahead of a cold front later on. Fair and cool for midweek.
TODAY: Mostly sunny. Clouds from the west late. Highs in the 30s. Wind N 5-15 MPH.
TONIGHT: Variably cloudy. Lows in the 20s. Wind light W.
MONDAY: Partly cloudy. Highs in the 30s. Wind light W.
TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Spotty light freezing rain/drizzle southern NH and northern MA early. Scattered rain showers afternoon. Lows 25-32. Highs in the 40s.
WEDNESDAY: Partly sunny. Lows 25-32. Highs 35-42.
THURSDAY: Partly cloudy. Lows 18-25. Highs in the 30s.

DAYS 6-10 (JANUARY 29-FEBRUARY 2)…
Periods of cloudiness and remote risk of light precipitation January 29-30 as systems pass by in a split flow (one passing to the south with the subtropical jet stream and one to the north with the polar jet stream). Fair January 31. Another period of unsettled weather possible to start February as a frontal system may be nearby with mild air trying to push up from the south while a cold high builds across eastern Canada.

DAYS 11-15 (FEBRUARY 3-7)…
Weak weather systems possible around February 4 and 6 otherwise a generally quiet weather pattern expected during this period with temperatures near to above normal.

Saturday Forecast Update

7:44PM

Here is an extra post to get things updated. Much of what comes below will be unchanged from the previous post, but some tweaks are being made to the final snow numbers and a couple other minor adjustments. An additional update will follow tomorrow morning as usual.

DAYS 1-5 (JANUARY 23-27)…
Storm update! What to expect in southern New England…
WHEN: Ongoing but ending Sunday morning.
SNOW START TIME: It started a long time ago and wherever it didn’t snow, it’s not gonna snow.
SNOW END TIME: From northwest to southeast through about 3AM Sunday, lastly Cape Cod and Nantucket.
SNOW INTENSITY: Heaviest bands as of 7:25PM are across Cape Cod and the South Coast with another in the immediate Boston area to Metro West but these will be shifting south to southeast and diminishing.
SNOW ACCUMULATION: Nothing or flakes in the air briefly in southern NH, dusting to 1 inch north central and northeastern MA, 1-3 inches just northwest of Boston stretching northeast to interior northeastern MA from near Boston west southwestward along the Mass Pike belt and just to the north, 3-6 inches from Boston west southwestward just south of the Mass Pike, 6-12 inches to the south of there with locally over 12 inches in some locations near the South Coast.
WIND: Gusts of 30 MPH or greater are likely in coastal NH and northeastern MA, 40 MPH or greater from coastal areas near Boston to the South Shore, 50 MPH or greater Cape Cod across to coastal RI and down Martha’s Vineyard, and 60 MPH or greater on Nantucket. Most of this has already occurred but the threat lingers a little longer this evening.
POWER OUTAGES: The most likely area for any power problems will remain the southern part of Cape Cod where the combination of strongest wind and wettest snow will be. Scattered outages elsewhere in southeastern MA, RI, and CT.
COASTAL FLOODING: Minor to moderate coastal flooding is most likely in the prone areas such as Scituate and Sandwich and similar locations from the South Shore of MA through Cape Cod and the from a couple hours before to a couple hours after high tide times both Saturday night and Sunday morning. Cannot rule out a pocket of major flooding since we have a full moon and astronomical high tides at this time. Major flooding would not be widespread in coastal areas.
After the storm! What to expect…
Improvement Sunday, fair and milder Monday, windy and not too chilly but a few rain showers Tuesday with an approaching cold front, then breezy and colder but fair weather Wednesday behind this front.
TONIGHT: Snow retreats northwest to southeast, lastly on Cape Cod. See above for accumulations. Lows 23-30. Wind NE to N 15-30 MPH, higher gusts (see above).
SUNDAY: Lingering clouds Cape Cod for part of the morning otherwise mostly sunny. Highs in the 30s. Wind NW 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.
MONDAY: Partly cloudy. Lows 18-25. Highs 35-42.
TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy and windy. Brief light mix possible morning. Few rain showers late. Lows 28-35. Highs in the 40s.
WEDNESDAY: Partly cloudy and windy. Lows in the 20s. Highs in the 30s.

DAYS 6-10 (JANUARY 28-FEBRUARY 1)…
Watching from late January 28 into January 30 for possible unsettled weather but odds favor most activity missing both to the north and south or just a fairly minor system passing through. Fair weather for the end of the period. Temperatures near to above normal.

DAYS 11-15 (FEBRUARY 2-6)…
Unsettled weather possible February 2-4 with an air mass battle possibly setting up in the area. Fair and a little colder by February 5-6 based on current timing.

Saturday Forecast

8:56AM

DAYS 1-5 (JANUARY 23-27)…
Storm update! What to expect in southern New England…
WHEN: Today and tonight (except Sunday morning as well regarding tide impact).
SNOW START TIME: Already underway southwestern CT, remainder of South Coast of CT to Cape Cod mid to late morning, however by late morning a few snow showers unrelated to the storm are possible from near Boston to the North Shore and northwest Suburbs, otherwise the storm-related snow should reach northeastern CT, northern RI, and south central MA during the early afternoon and its furthest extend northward into MA to near the NH border during mid to late afternoon.
SNOW END TIME: From northwest to southeast generally between 8PM and 3AM, that is, firstly in the areas it reached the latest, and lastly around Cape Cod and the Islands closer to 3AM. This means areas near the South Coast snow the longest while areas northwest of Boston snow lesser time.
SNOW INTENSITY: Moderate snow as a general rule across most areas from Boston along the Mass Pike and southward, but a band of heavier snow will push into the South Coast of MA, RI, and CT. Light to very light snow as you head north and northwest toward the MA/NH border.
SNOW ACCUMULATION: Nothing or flakes in the air briefly in southern NH, dusting to 1 inch north central and northeastern MA, 1-3 inches from near Boston west southwestward along the Mass Pike belt and just to the north, 3-6 inches from just south of Boston down into much of southeastern MA to northern RI and northeastern CT, 6-10 inches southeastern CT and southern RI and the immediate South Coast of MA including the southern part of Cape Cod and the island of Martha’s Vineyard. Exceptions will be southwestern CT where over 10 inches will fall, Nantucket where an intense snow band may result in over 12 inches, and the eastern part of Cape Cod where slightly lighter precipitation and a possible mix may limit snow to 2-4 inches there.
WIND: Gusts of 30 MPH or greater are likely in coastal NH and northeastern MA, 40 MPH or greater from coastal areas near Boston to the South Shore, 50 MPH or greater Cape Cod across to coastal RI and down Martha’s Vineyard, and 60 MPH or greater on Nantucket.
POWER OUTAGES: The most likely area for any power problems will be the southern part of Cape Cod where the combination of strongest wind and wettest snow will be. Isolated outages possible elsewhere.
COASTAL FLOODING: Minor to moderate coastal flooding is most likely in the prone areas such as Scituate and Sandwich and similar locations from the South Shore of MA through Cape Cod and the from a couple hours before to a couple hours after high tide times both Saturday night and Sunday morning. Cannot rule out a pocket of major flooding since we have a full moon and astronomical high tides at this time. Major flooding would not be widespread in coastal areas.
After the storm! What to expect…
Improvement Sunday, fair and milder Monday, windy and not too chilly but a few rain showers Tuesday with an approaching cold front, then breezy and colder but fair weather Wednesday behind this front.
TODAY: Overcast. A band of light snow showers possible late morning to early afternoon from Boston area to the 128/95 belt around the city then may progress westward before dissipating, otherwise snow developing from south to north during the course of the day. Snow may mix with or even turn to rain at times on parts of Cape Cod and Nantucket. Highs 27-35, coldest over interior MA and southwestern to south central NH, mildest Cape Cod. Wind N to NE 5-15 MPH in areas northwest of Boston, NE to E 10-25 MPH with higher gusts elsewhere (see above for peak gusts).
TONIGHT: Snow retreats northwest to southeast, lastly on Cape Cod. See above for accumulations. Lows 23-30. Wind NE to N 15-30 MPH, higher gusts (see above).
SUNDAY: Lingering clouds Cape Cod for part of the morning otherwise mostly sunny. Highs in the 30s. Wind NW 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.
MONDAY: Partly cloudy. Lows 18-25. Highs 35-42.
TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy and windy. Brief light mix possible morning. Few rain showers late. Lows 28-35. Highs in the 40s.
WEDNESDAY: Partly cloudy and windy. Lows in the 20s. Highs in the 30s.

DAYS 6-10 (JANUARY 28-FEBRUARY 1)…
Fair weather is expected for most of if not all of this period but we may be in between systems in both the northern and southern jet streams January 29-30 so will have to keep an eye on these for most likely minor impact with any shift in storm tracks. Temperatures near to above normal.

DAYS 11-15 (FEBRUARY 2-6)…
Unsettled weather possible February 2-4 with an air mass battle possibly setting up in the area. Fair and a little colder by February 5-6 based on current timing.

Friday Forecast

7:18AM

DAYS 1-5 (JANUARY 22-26)…
High pressure hangs on one more day today which will feature plenty of sun but still cold air in place. This sets the stage for the side-swipe by a very large Winter storm passing south of the region this weekend. At this point the thinking on the track of this system has not really changed. What must be understood here is as a forecaster you’re trying to figure out subtle movements of essentially the northern edge of a system that’s tremendous in size, and that shifts of just mere miles will make a difference of up to inches in terms of snowfall. That said, the overall idea remains the same. The numbers will appear below in the forecast section, but I will preface it here by saying that my leaning is toward the lower end of the ranges in northern areas and the higher end of the ranges in southern areas. I can elaborate in the comment section below this discussion/forecast. Still looking for improvement as the storm moves away Sunday, nice weather Monday, and a quick turn to mild weather and an approaching system that may bring a touch of mix then some rain showers Tuesday.
TODAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 28-35. Wind N 5-15 MPH.
TONIGHT: Increasing clouds. Lows in the 10s. Wind light N.
SATURDAY: Cloudy. Snow developing mainly southern areas afternoon, may mix with rain Cape Cod and Islands. Highs 28-35. Wind E increasing to 10-20 MPH except 20-30 MPH near the South Coast with higher gusts.
SATURDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Chance of snow northern MA and southern NH. Snow likely southern MA and RI but may mix with rain Cape Cod and Islands. Most likely snow accumulation: 6-10 inches immediate South Coast of RI and MA including southern Cape Cod, 3-6 inches just north of there, 1-3 inches interior southern MA up to about the Mass Pike (1-2 inches Boston), and generally 1 inch or less northwest and north of Boston. Lows 25-33. Wind E 15-35 MPH, strongest along the coast with higher gusts.
SUNDAY: Gradually thinning and breaking overcast with snow ending northwest to southeast. Highs in the 30s. Wind NE to N 15-25 MPH with higher gusts.
MONDAY: Mostly sunny. Lows 15-25. Highs in the 30s.
TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of very light mix morning and rain showers afternoon. Lows in the 20s. Highs in the 40s.

DAYS 6-10 (JANUARY 27-31)…
The final days of January will feature mostly dry weather and somewhat variable temperatures but overall on the milder side of average.

DAYS 11-15 (FEBRUARY 1-5)…
Mild and dry for a few days to start then a frontal passage with a minor precipitation event leads to fair and cooler weather by the end of the period.

Thursday Forecast

7:35AM

DAYS 1-5 (JANUARY 21-25)…
High pressure in control today – fair and chilly. High pressure hangs on Friday – fair and chilly. Winter storm tracks south and east of New England this weekend – northern edge impacts here, light to possibly moderate snow amounts with the moderate amounts most likely along the New England South Coast, gusty winds for a period of time including the risk of coastal flooding near times of high tide. Improvement by late Sunday leading to a nice day Monday as high pressure returns to the region.
TODAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 28-35. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.
TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 8-15. Wind light NW to N.
FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 28-35. Wind N 5-15 MPH.
FRIDAY NIGHT: Increasing clouds. Lows in the 10s. Wind light N.
SATURDAY: Cloudy. Snow developing mainly southern areas afternoon, may mix with rain Cape Cod and Islands. Highs 28-35. Wind E increasing to 10-20 MPH except 20-30 MPH near the South Coast with higher gusts.
SATURDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Chance of snow northern MA and southern NH. Snow likely southern MA and RI but may mix with rain Cape Cod and Islands. Light to moderate accumulation possible with the moderate amounts likely further south (numbers on next update or possibly later today in comments below). Lows 25-33. Wind E 15-35 MPH, strongest along the coast with higher gusts.
SUNDAY: Gradually thinning and breaking overcast with snow ending northwest to southeast. Highs in the 30s. Wind NE to N 15-25 MPH with higher gusts.
MONDAY: Mostly sunny. Lows 15-25. Highs in the 30s.

DAYS 6-10 (JANUARY 26-30)…
Weak storm passes north of the region January 26 with milder air and a chance of a touch of light mix early then a chance of light rain showers later. Fair and seasonable to mild January 27-30.

DAYS 11-15 (JANUARY 31-FEBRUARY 4)…
Fair and mild start to the period, then may turn somewhat unsettled.

Wednesday Forecast

3:16AM

DAYS 1-5 (JANUARY 20-24)…
Weakening disturbance tries to send some cloudiness in today and tonight but most of it dries up as we continue to be dominated by a west to northwest flow of cold air which will now persist through Thursday, finally letting up Friday. The trend for the weekend storm threat has been to slow the arrival of whatever impact wet get and shift the main action to the south, that is, a Mid Atlantic storm, with lesser impact up here. Still leaning that way today. No details on this update regarding snow amounts. Still too early. One thing that is more likely to be a factor is coastal flooding due to onshore wind and astronomical high tide, as the full moon occurs Saturday. More about this in coming updates…
TODAY: Mostly sunny. Highs in the 20s. Wind WNW 10-20 MPH gusting as high as 30 MPH.
TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows in the 10s. Wind NW 5-15 MPH gusting as high as 25 MPH.
THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs in the 20s. Wind NW 10-20 MPH gusting as high as 25 MPH.
FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. Lows 5-15. Highs 25-35.
SATURDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of snow PM. Lows 10-20. Highs 20-30.
SUNDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of snow AM. Lows 15-25. Highs 25-35.

DAYS 6-10 (JANUARY 25-29)…
Dry and cool January 25. Risk of unsettled weather (precipitation type uncertain) January 26-27 but does not look major. Fair January 28-29 with temperatures close to normal.

DAYS 11-15 (JANUARY 30-FEBRUARY 3)…
A couple of fairly weak systems pass through with episodes of precipitation but fair weather will be dominant much of the time. Temperatures variable, averaging near to above normal.

Tuesday Forecast

7:16AM

DAYS 1-5 (JANUARY 19-23)…
Lesson learned (by me): I still can’t forecast inverted trough precipitation very well. Will work on it. Lesson not learned (by media in general): Saying too much about threats that are greater than a few days away will almost always come back to bite you. Not always, but almost always. And it may happen again. Firstly, the well-advertised cold is now here and will remain, accompanied by wind, for 2 more days, and then it will remain cold but with less wind on Thursday. The big question continues to be what happens with the storm potential for the end of the week. You all know my approach is a wait-and-see one, look at the data, ingest it but don’t choke on it, digest it but don’t let it cause you heartburn. It’s just a scientific process. Sometimes it works great, and sometime not so much. Either way, I will employ it. Though we are still 4 to 5 days out from this potential event, I’m starting to see more evidence that the main focus of that storm system will be over the Mid Atlantic, with a lesser impact up here in southeastern New England. The orientation of the steering currents in this continued split flow may end up taking the system more east than north. That does not remove us in southern New England from its threat, but instead of staring down the barrel of the cannon, we may be looking more at the side of it. Will continue to monitor…
TODAY: Partly cloudy. Highs 18-25. Wind NW 15-25 MPH, gusting over 30 MPH. Wind chill often near 0.
TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 5-10 except 10-15 urban areas and coastline. Wind NW 10-20 MPH and gusty. Wind chill often near 0.
WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 20-27. Wind NW 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.
THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Lows 0-10 valleys, 10s elsewhere. Highs 26-33.
FRIDAY: Partly sunny. Lows 0-10 valleys, 10s elsewhere. Highs 28-35.
SATURDAY: Cloudy. Chance of snow. Lows in the 10s. Highs 25-32.

DAYS 6-10 (JANUARY 24-28)…
Chance of snow showers January 24. Fair January 25. Risk of unsettled weather January 26-27. Improving weather January 28. Variable temperatures, not far from normal.

DAYS 11-15 (JANUARY 29-FEBRUARY 2)…
Fair, briefly colder early period then warming trend. Risk of unsettled weather end of period.

Monday Forecast

7:21AM

DAYS 1-5 (JANUARY 18-22)…
The tricky trough produced a good swath of 2-6 inches of snow across much of eastern MA and nearby areas overnight but it is winding down first thing tomorrow and only passing snow showers are possible during the day as Arctic air arrives from the west. The rest of the forecast is unchanged from yesterday. By the end of the week we’ll be watching the approach of a storm from the southwest which threatens to bring a more significant winter weather event here.
TODAY: Mainly cloudy morning with snow ending but a few additional snow showers possible. Partly to mostly sunny but isolated snow showers still possible this afternoon. Temperatures fall through the 20s. Wind variable early but becoming W increasing to 15-30 MPH with higher gusts midday through afternoon.
TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 8-15. Wind WNW 15-30 MPH, higher gusts. Wind chill below 0 at times.
TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs around 20. Wind NW 15-25 MPH, higher gusts.
WEDNESDAY: Sunny. Lows 0-10. Highs in the 20s.
THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Lows 0-10. Highs in the 20s.
FRIDAY: Increasing clouds. Chance of snow/mix at night. Lows in the 10s. Highs in the 30s.

DAYS 6-10 (JANUARY 23-27)…
Storm threat for January 23 with any combination of precipitation possible depending on storm track. Even a pass of the storm mostly out to sea to the south still possible. Improving weather January 24. Fair January 25. Risk of unsettled weather January 26-27.

DAYS 11-15 (JANUARY 28-FEBRUARY 1)…
Mainly fair weather, variable temperatures but an overall milder trend for this period.

Sunday Forecast

8:08AM

DAYS 1-5 (JANUARY 17-21)…
Sneaky snow coming? Not if you see it coming. It’s become apparent that a small, well-placed inverted trough will create some snow in the region tonight as a developing ocean storm heads out to sea just southeast of New England, and a disturbance in the polar jet stream approaches from the west, taking along an Arctic boundary. This quick-hitting snow event may leave some accumulation and then it may be added to slightly but a batch of snow showers/squalls with the Arctic boundary, which will lead the coldest air of the season so far into the region later Monday. This very cold air mass will hang around into midweek before easing slightly.
TODAY: Increasing clouds. Highs in the 30s. Wind NW to N up to 10 MPH.
TONIGHT: Cloudy. Snow developing with 1 to 3 inches possible. Locally heavier amounts also possible. Snow mixed with rain on parts of the South Shore to Cape Cod early before becoming snow. Lows in the 20s. Wind N 5-15 MPH.
MONDAY: Variably cloudy morning with snow showers likely – additional minor snow accumulation possible. Partly cloudy to mostly sunny afternoon with isolated snow showers. Temperatures fall into the 10s. Wind variable up to 10 MPH early becoming W 5-15 MPH but gusty in passing snow showers then NW increasing to 15-30 MPH with gusts 35-45 MPH during the afternoon.
TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Windy. Lows 0-10. Highs 15-25.
WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. Lows 0-10. Highs in the 20s.
THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Lows 0-10. Highs 25-35.

DAYS 6-10 (JANUARY 22-26)…
Continuing to watch a storm threat for late January 22 into January 23 which may bring significant snow to at least parts of the region. Too early to be sure if/where mix/rain gets involved. Something to watch. Fair, windy, colder January 24. Fair and more tranquil January 25. Next unsettled weather threat may arrive by January 26.

DAYS 11-15 (JANUARY 27-31)…
A storm system may impact the region to start the period followed by period of fair weather with a couple quick air mass changes in the final days of the month.

Saturday Forecast

8:51AM

DAYS 1-5 (JANUARY 16-20)…
The Saturday storm is ongoing and behaving about as expected. A decent batch of moderate to heavy rain is crossing a good portion of southeastern New England in response to a deepening low pressure area passing just southeast of New England, many times a track that would produce significant snow in January. But on this occasion, the combination of warm ocean water, too-warm upper levels, and mild air already in place below that is preventing snow. However, there has been just enough cold air left at the ground mainly in valley areas well northwest of Boston for some patches of freezing rain. Finally, colder air will start to work down from above into the area that precipitation forms in areas north and west of Boston toward the end of the precipitation, that is cold enough to support snow with intensity, however this will take place just as the precipitation is getting set to pull out of here, which will limit any snow accumulation to a slushy inch in the higher terrain of north central MA and south central NH (with more to the west of there in the mountains of southwestern NH). Colder air will filter in tonight and Sunday behind this system but it won’t be until Monday morning with a passing arctic cold front brings much colder air in. This front, with its small parent low crossing northern New England, may produce a batch of snow showers and snow squalls that may lead to some quick but minor accumulation. Timing of this system and its potential snow showers will be critical for people traveling on Monday. The good news is, Monday being a holiday for many means that the morning commute will be quite light, in terms of traffic volume. Either way, the very cold air takes hold Monday and lingers into the middle of next week.
TODAY: Cloudy. Rain, heavy at times, diminishing rapidly from southwest to northeast during midday. Patches of freezing rain likely for a while this morning interior valleys well northwest of Boston. Precipitation turning to wet snow before ending in parts of the region northwest of Boston with up to an inch in highest elevations, and perhaps flakes in the air and a slushy coating in portions of east central to northeastern MA. Highs 35-40 northwest of Boston, 40-45 Boston to Providence, 45-50 Cape Cod. Wind NE to N 10-20 MPH except 20-30 MPH Cape Cod, with higher gusts, shifting to NW and eventually W and diminishing to 5-15 MPH later.
TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows in the 20s. Wind W 5-15 MPH.
SUNDAY: Partly sunny. Highs in the 30s. Wind W 5-15 MPH.
MONDAY: Windy. Variably cloudy with snow showers and snow squalls, most numerous early. Temperatures fall into the 10s.
TUESDAY: Windy. Mostly sunny. Lows 0-10. Highs 15-25.
WEDNESDAY: Breezy. Mostly sunny. Lows 0-10. Highs in the 20s.

DAYS 6-10 (JANUARY 21-25)…
Dry and cold January 21. Continuing to watch a storm threat that falls in the January 22-23 time frame. Currently, computer guidance shows a variety of solutions during this time so will just leave the vague outlook as is and continue to watch. Fair weather returns January 24-25 with a seasonable chill.

DAYS 11-15 (JANUARY 26-30)…
A trend toward milder temperatures, though still variable, as a storm threat exists for around January 27-28. Plenty of uncertainty normally this far out and even more so at this time.

Friday Forecast

7:29AM

DAYS 1-5 (JANUARY 15-19)…
Carrying yesterday’s ideas forward but making an adjustment regarding Sunday/Monday. In summary… Cloudiness dominates today as the air mass warms. Storm moves by very quickly Saturday morning and early afternoon a weakening low passing far to the northwest while a stronger low passes southeast of Cape Cod, but in a mild air mass we’ll see rain from this across the area with the exception of patches of freezing rain possible in interior valleys of north central MA and southern NH for a brief time. Additional storm development will take place well to the southeast Sunday as cold air returns Sunday and is reinforced Monday and Tuesday, including a disturbance Monday which may ignite snow showers/squalls.
TODAY: Mostly cloudy. Highs 37-44. Wind S up to 10 MPH.
TONIGHT: Cloudy. Rain arriving south to north overnight, may begin as freezing rain interior valleys of southern NH and north central MA. Lows 30-37. Wind S to SE 5-15 MPH.
SATURDAY: Cloudy. Rain ending south to north by early afternoon. Highs in the 40s. Wind E to NE 10-20 MPH interior areas and 15-30 MPH along the coast with higher gusts Cape Cod, shifting to N then NW later in the day and diminishing slightly.
SUNDAY: Mostly cloudy. Lows in the 20s. Highs in the 30s.
MONDAY: Sun and clouds. Chance of snow showers. Windy. Temperatures fall from the 20s to the 10s.
TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Windy. Lows 0-10. Highs 15-25.

DAYS 6-10 (JANUARY 20-24)…
Windy/cold/dry January 20. Tranquil but cold January 21. Storm threat later January 22 into January 23. Fair and cold January 24.

DAYS 11-15 (JANUARY 25-29)…
Fair and milder early period. Risk of a fast-moving system bringing mix/rain mid period. Fair and colder late period.

Thursday Forecast

7:22AM

DAYS 1-5 (JANUARY 14-18)…
A weak disturbance means clouds and a little light snow this morning before more sunshine returns. Warming of the air mass both at the surface and aloft brings more cloudiness later tonight and Friday. Our well-advertised “separated storm” blows through Saturday morning with rain, maybe some mix in north central MA and southern NH for a short while. Another piece of energy coming along the jet stream late Sunday may produce a touch of light snow or snow showers as it will have turned colder during Sunday. A shot of very cold air arrives Monday along with wind.
TODAY: Mostly cloudy with some very light to light snow around parts of the region this morning possibly leaving a light dusting then turning mostly sunny midday and afternoon. Highs 28-35. Wind W 5-15 MPH.
TONIGHT: Partly to mostly cloudy. Lows 18-25. Wind light SW.
FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy – some limited sun. Highs 37-44. Wind S up to 10 MPH.
SATURDAY: Cloudy. Morning and midday rain, possibly some mixed precipitation far northwest of Boston. Lows in the 30s. Highs in the 40s.
SUNDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of a little light snow at night. Temperatures cool through the 30s.
MONDAY: Sun and clouds. Chance of snow showers. Windy. Lows in the 10s. Highs in the 20s.

DAYS 6-10 (JANUARY 19-23)…
Windy/cold/dry January 19-20. Tranquil but cold January 21. Storm threat later January 22 into January 23.

DAYS 11-15 (JANUARY 24-28)…
A more quiet pattern arrives for this period, starting cold followed by a milder trend. One passing storm system, likely rain, may occur about mid period.

Wednesday Forecast

3:26AM

DAYS 1-5 (JANUARY 13-17)…
El Nino continues to rule. And the pattern remains very progressive with distinctive split jet streams that don’t want to get together. We’ll be ruled by the polar jet stream for the next few days with a shot of very cold air today, a weak disturbance possibly producing a few snow flurries Thursday, then a warming atmosphere by Friday. When we make it to the weekend, a pair of low pressure areas, one coming along the polar jet into the Great Lakes and another evolving quickly in the subtropical jet stream over the southeastern US will remain largely separate as they move northeastward. They will make a feeble attempt to join via the upper air but will fail in completely doing so. We here in southeastern New England will be caught in a zone between the two, though the storm from the subtropical jet may be close enough to bring some gusty wind Saturday. The precipitation associated with the passage of this unsettled weather will likely be largely in the form of rain, though some mix is possible. By Sunday, colder air will return as the storms depart via the northwestern Atlantic and eastern Canada.
TODAY: Sun and passing clouds. Highs 25-32. Wind W 15-30 MPH gusting 35-45 MPH.
TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 14-21. Wind W 10-20 MPH gusting 25-35 MPH.
THURSDAY: Partly sunny. Chance of snow flurries. Highs 28-35. Wind W 10-20 MPH.
FRIDAY: Variably cloudy. Lows in the 20s. Highs 35-45.
SATURDAY: Mostly cloudy. Windy. Mix/rain mostly morning to midday. Lows in the 30s. Highs in the 40s.
SUNDAY: Variably cloudy. Windy. Chance of snow showers. Lows in the 20s. Highs in the 30s.

DAYS 6-10 (JANUARY 18-22)…
Dry and cold January 18-20. Fair and milder January 21. Risk of unsettled weather returning January 22.

DAYS 11-15 (JANUARY 23-27)…
Storm risk January 23-24. Fair weather returns January 25-27.

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