10:30PM

COMMENTARY…
For many of you, the only good thing about this month of February 2015 is that it only has 28 days and will end. Although you cannot deny the fascinating aspect of this incredibly cold and snowy month, one that nobody quite saw coming to this extent. Back in January when I tossed out dates for a target period for the majority of our snow for this Winter (January 24-March 8), I never envisioned what was getting set to unfold. I forecast a “milder” February from what we had seen in January, not something that is all that unusual even with the expected snowy pattern. But instead the temperature went even lower, and Boston has a shot at having only the second month on record coming in with an average temperature below 20F. The other was February 1934, the month in which Boston recorded its all time record low temperature of -18 in February 9. Though that record will not fall, many others have and a couple more are within reach, including the record coldest month and the all time snowiest Winter (and even if we don’t reach that in February, there is still March). Boston moved into a tie for #2 on the snowiest Winters list with the 0.6 inch snowfall Tuesday, bringing the total to the same as the 1993-1994 Winter at 96.3 inches and is within 1 foot from the #1 spot of 107.6 inches from the 1995-1996 Winter. This record is now very much within reach and may indeed fall before the end of the 7-day forecast period covered in this blog…

SUMMARY…
The active and cold weather pattern goes on, and the atmosphere continues to find every way possible to snow on Boston with more on the way. Tuesday’s snow was a double deal, though not amounting to too much in the city and up to a few inches along the coast mainly to the south of the city, and came from a passing storm well to the south and an onshore flow which brought moisture off the ocean. Wednesday, another storm system forming on an offshore boundary, though being too far offshore to bring more precipitation directly, will be the parent of an inverted trough, or a Norlun trough, which will grow northwestward from the passing storm on Wednesday and inject an area of snow into eastern MA during late afternoon and evening. This trough will then migrate northward through northeastern MA and southeastern NH and eventually into southern Maine and will the focus for enhanced snowfall and some potential significant accumulation by early Thursday. Though it looks like Boston itself will escape the heaviest, the North Shore northward may not. And in addition to this, another low pressure area will develop just east of Cape Cod by early Thursday and then track northward through the Gulf of Maine by Thursday night. This system will be intensifying and its back-side snow showers will likely deliver some more scattered accumulation to southern NH and parts of MA. Oh and it won’t be done with us even when it’s done snowing on us, as it delivers another batch of Arctic air for Thursday night and Friday. Have you had enough yet? Well yes or no, we’ll be in for another storm threat which will be arriving over the weekend, most likely Sunday. The big question with this one is whether or not it will track in such a fashion to allow relatively milder air in from the south to introduce a mix or rain, or whether it will will track far enough south to keep colder air entrenched for a snowier outcome. At the moment I’m leaning toward the colder outcome, but at 4 days away there is plenty of time to fine tune this. Either way, a return to dry weather but more cold is likely early next week.

SOUTHEASTERN NEW ENGLAND FORECAST…
OVERNIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Scattered light snow showers with spotty light additional accumulation. Lows 5-10 except 10-15 Cape Cod. Wind light variable.
WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Scattered light snow showers but an area of more numerous and locally moderate snow showers developing in Metro Boston to the North Shore late afternoon. Scattered coatings of snow but accumulations of 1-2 inches possible in the evening from Boston northward especially closer to the coast. Highs in the 20s. Wind N to NE 5-15 MPH.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Snow showers likely with additional accumulation of few inches in northeastern MA and southeastern NH. A few light snow showers possible elsewhere with little additional accumulation. Lows 10-15. Wind light N.
THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy to partly sunny. Scattered snow showers. Highs 20-25. Wind NW increasing to 15-25 MPH.
FRIDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 0. High 15.
SATURDAY: Partly sunny. Low 0. High 20.
SUNDAY: Cloudy. Snow likely except possible mix South Coast. Low 15. High 30.
MONDAY: Clearing. Low 15. High 25.
TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 10. High 25.

3:45PM

SUMMARY…
The cold pattern even by mid Winter standards continues with no sign of letting go soon. Though the train of big storms seems to have subsided, it will continue to be an active weather pattern, with a fast-moving low pressure area passing south of New England Tuesday, delivering a light to moderate snowfall, an upper low and inverted trough bringing snow showers on Wednesday, and then another system over the weekend bringing the next chance of snow. In between, Thursday and Friday will be dry with very cold air from the Arctic.

SOUTHEASTERN NEW ENGLAND FORECAST…
TONIGHT: Increasing clouds. Low -5 to 0 interior valleys, 0-5 elsewhere except 5-10 urban centers/coast. Wind W 5-15 MPH with higher gusts, diminishing to under 10 MPH and shifting to N.
TUESDAY: Cloudy. Snow with accumulation of a coating to 2 inches except 2-4 inches Cape Cod and portions of the immediate coast. Highs 20-25. Wind light N becoming NE.
TUESDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Coastal snow showers possible. Lows 15-20. Wind light NE shifting to NW.
WEDNESDAY: Variably cloudy. Occasional snow showers. Highs 20-25. Wind NW to N 10-20 MPH.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY: Sunny. Lows -5 to +5. Highs 10-20.
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of snow. Lows 10-20. Highs 20-30.
MONDAY: Partly sunny. Low 15. High 25.

5:37PM

SUMMARY…
A quick look at the weekend storm. Snow totals were higher than expected by me in portions of the region for both part 1 and part 2 of the storm. Both times these higher areas were portions of eastern MA and southeastern NH, also parts of RI as well for for part 1. Boston’s snow total of 16.2 inches for the latest storm brings their seasonal total to 95.7 inches so far moving it into 3nd place on the all time snowiest winters list. #2 is the 1992-1993 Winter with 96.3 inches but that is in close reach, and they are within 10 inches of the #1 snowiest Winter, 1995-1996 with 107.6 inches. With additional snow threats in the forecast, Boston has a very real chance of reaching #1 with the 2014-2015 Winter, after having only 5.5 inches through January 23! Incredible. Now onto the week upcoming. It’ll be an Arctic Monday, Presidents Day, with bright sun, gusty winds with blowing snow, and frigid air. Low pressure tracks out of the Southeast States and off the Atlantic Coast Tuesday bringing a shield of snow to the region. Light to moderate snow amounts are likely, with greater totals further southeast and less to the northwest. Additional snow showers are likely Wednesday as upper level low pressure slowly traverses the region. Another blast of Arctic air arrives Thursday and Friday before broad trough moves in and brings another snow threat for next weekend.

SOUTHEASTERN NEW ENGLAND FORECAST…
TONIGHT: Blowing snow under a clear sky. Lows from -10 remote suburbs to +5 Cape Cod. Wind NW 15-30 MPH with higher gusts. Wind chill -10 to -25.
MONDAY – PRESIDENTS DAY: Sunny. Blowing snow. Highs 10-15. Wind W 15-30 MPH with higher gusts. Wind chill often 0 to -10.
MONDAY NIGHT: Increasing clouds. Lows -5 to +5. Wind W 5-15 MPH. Wind chill -10 at times.
TUESDAY: Cloudy with snow likely by late morning on. Light to moderate snow accumulation possible. Highs around 20. Wind variable to NE 10-20 MPH.
WEDNESDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of snow showers. Low 10. High 20.
THURSDAY: Sunny. Low 0. High 10.
FRIDAY: Sunny. Low -5. High 15.
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of snow. Lows 10-15. Highs 20-25.

9:29AM

SUMMARY…
And more synoptic surprises in a Winter that is stacking up as many of those as inches of snow. Go figure. We’ll save the analysis for later and just say that snow amounts for not only part 1, which overachieved for some areas but not all, but for part 2 have overachieved but in even more locations, especially eastern MA (as usual) where an intense comma-head snow band took shape about 30 to 50 miles further southwest than I expected. The NWS was concerned about this and I give them props for putting it out there as a wild card to the snow amounts. Even they had to add to the totals, but not as much as I do. So going forward, the rest of this would be a repeat of the last entry regarding the weather set up for the rest of today and well into the coming week, so we’ll just go to a forecast update and save the next full discussion for The Week Ahead post later today. Plus there are so many comments on the previous entry it’s time to hit “refresh”.

SOUTHEASTERN NEW ENGLAND FORECAST…
TODAY: Snow gradually ends through midday, but blowing snow continues. Sun appears from Boston westward later in the day. Total accumulation 6-12 inches well inland, 12-18 inches to the east with heavier pockets of about 18 inches. Very high snow drifts. Temperatures fall from 10s below 10. Wind N to NW 15-35 MPH with gusts over 45 MPH at times inland, 25-35 MPH with gusts over 55 MPH at times coast. Wind chill well below 0.
TONIGHT: Clearing. Blowing snow. Lows -10 to 0 inland, 0 to +5 coast. Wind NW 15-35 MPH with gusts over 45 MPH shifting to W late.
MONDAY – PRESIDENTS DAY: Sunny. Blowing snow. Highs 10-15. Wind W 15-25 MPH with higher gusts.
TUESDAY: Clouding up. PM snow. Low 0. High 20.
WEDNESDAY: Variably cloudy. Scattered snow showers. Low 15. High 25.
THURSDAY: Sunny. Low 0. High 15.
FRIDAY: Sunny. Low 0. High 20.
SATURDAY: Partly sunny. Low 5. High 25.

5:23PM

SUMMARY…
This update will be basically the same discussion as the previous with a few tweaks as not much has changed in what was expected. Small snowflake size and a fairly lasting lull in snow for most areas will result in less accumulation than would have been seen if the storm had normal flake size and no lull.

Winter storm warning for the entire WHW forecast area until 1PM Sunday.
Blizzard warning for southeastern NH and eastern MA counties 7PM Saturday to 1PM Sunday.

Clipper system arrived as scheduled this afternoon, getting part 1 of the event underway. Redevelopment is going to take place offshore with rapid intensification. This will lead to the wind part of the system during part 2, along with additional snow and the added aspect of blowing snow due to strong wind for Sunday morning, with blowing snow continuing through Sunday night and even into Monday long after the falling snow is gone.

The next storm threat late Tuesday to early Wednesday will result from a fast-moving low pressure system likely to pass offshore of New England. Leaning toward a light to moderate snow event from this but plenty of time to work out details. More dry and cold weather is expected later next week but quickly moving systems mean that the next threat of snow arrives by Saturday.

SOUTHEASTERN NEW ENGLAND FORECAST…
TONIGHT: Overcast with widespread snow evening, then a break with only isolated snow showers much of RI and MA as some snow continues across southeastern NH, then snow redevelops all areas toward dawn. Temperatures fall from the 20s to the 10s. Wind light SE to E early then shifting to NE to N and increasing to 15-35 MPH with gusts above 40 MPH inland and above 50 MPH coast by morning.
SUNDAY: Overcast through midday with snow, heaviest in northeastern MA and southeastern NH. Blizzard conditions in the warning area. Snow ending west to east afternoon with thinning clouds and some sun emerging. Total snow accumulation of 4 to 8 inches, but areas of greater than 8 inches possible mainly near the coast north of Boston including eastern Essex County MA into southeastern NH. Temperatures falling from the 10s to under 10. Wind N to NW 25-35 MPH with gust 45-55 MPH inland, 25-35 MPH with gusts 55-65 MPH coastal areas. Wind chill frequently below 0.
SUNDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Lows -10 to +5, coldest well northwest of Boston, least cold near the coast. Wind NW 15-35 MPH with higher gusts. Blowing snow. Wind chill -10 to -25 at times.
MONDAY – PRESIDENTS DAY: Sunny. Highs around 10. Wind NW 15-30 MPH and gusty. Additional blowing snow. Wind chill below 0, down to -15 at times.
TUESDAY: Increasing clouds. Snow at night. Low 0. High 20.
WEDNESDAY: Morning snow. Afternoon clearing. Low 15. High 25.
THURSDAY: Sunny. Low 0. High 20.
FRIDAY: Sunny. Low 0. High 20.
SATURDAY: Cloudy. Chance of snow. Low 10. High 30.

1:05AM

SUMMARY…
Doing some fine-tuning regarding the weekend storm.
Winter storm warning for the entire WHW forecast area 3PM Saturday to 1PM Sunday.
Blizzard warning for southeastern NH and eastern MA counties 7PM Saturday to 1PM Sunday.
The evolution of the weekend storm is still expected to be the same as previously discussed as a clipper low pressure system tracks east southeastward from the Great Lakes to near southern New England Saturday with a first area of snow developing. The system will then redevelop just southeast of New England Saturday night into Sunday before moving away. After a lull in snow over parts of the region especially eastern MA and RI Saturday night into the early hours of Sunday while snow likely continues in southeastern NH, back-lash snow, increasing wind, and falling temperatures will become the story of the second part of the storm Sunday morning across the region. Conditions improve later Sunday but bitter cold and gusty wind will continue, along with blowing snow, and this will continue into Monday. The next storm threat late Tuesday to early Wednesday will result from a fast-moving low pressure system likely to pass offshore of New England. Leaning toward a light to moderate snow event from this but plenty of time to work out details. More dry and cold weather is expected later next week.
SOUTHEASTERN NEW ENGLAND FORECAST…
OVERNIGHT: Increasing clouds. Lows from -15 deep valleys to +10 coast. Wind light variable.
SATURDAY: Thickening overcast. Snow developing west to east afternoon with accumulating up to 3 inches. Highs in the 20s. Wind light variable.
SATURDAY NIGHT: Overcast. Snow tapering off in RI and MA but continuing in southeastern NH evening, then redeveloping all areas overnight. Additional accumulation greater than 3 inches southeastern NH, under 3 inches elsewhere. Temperatures steady in the 20s. Wind variable becoming NE to N increasing to 15-30 MPH overnight.
SUNDAY: Overcast through midday with snow, heaviest in northeastern MA and southeastern NH. Blizzard conditions in the warning area. Snow ending west to east afternoon with thinning clouds and some sun emerging. Additional accumulation 2 to 4 inches south and west of Boston, 4 to 8 inches from Boston north. Total storm accumulation 5 to 10 inches south and west of Boston and 10 to 15 inches from Boston north. Significant snow drifts. Temperatures falling through the 10s. Wind NE to N then eventually NW, 15-35 MPH with gust 45-55 MPH inland, 25-35 MPH with gusts 55-65 MPH coastal areas.
MONDAY – PRESIDENTS DAY: Sunny. Low -5. High 10.
TUESDAY: Increasing clouds. Snow at night. Low 0. High 20.
WEDNESDAY: Morning snow. Afternoon clearing. Low 15. High 25.
THURSDAY: Sunny. Low 0. High 20.
FRIDAY: Sunny. Low 0. High 20.

8:15PM

COMMENTARY…
Yes, the title of the blog entry is … which should be easily figured out. 🙂
Too bad The Weather Channel didn’t start naming this series of storms after the Beatles. We could have had John, Paul, and George by now, and Ringo coming up, and next week, maybe even Pete Best. 🙂 My other comment here is a little more serious and just kind of a public plea really. We all know that it’s been one heck of a stretch of Winter weather, and that 3 weeks probably now seems like 3 months, and even the snow lovers among us are tired from shoveling and navigating, etc. Some of us accept this fact of Winter, even in this extreme case, while others curse it and all that goes along with that. I’m not here to judge that in this post, even though I often make my opinions quite known. 🙂 What I really want to address here is anger. If there is one thing I have learned about people, in general, is that we are lot more quick to react out of frustration and anger now than we were back in 1978, for example. Yes people got frustrated then, but it seemed so much so that the first choice would be to help somebody, be friendly to somebody, and do whatever they could to help others get through the weather-related hardship. We worked much better as a team then, and now it seems to be everybody for themselves. I know this does not apply to everybody, and there are many of us that would do just as many did in 1978. As tough a stretch as this is, and will continue to be for a while, try to exercise patience, help where and when you can, and smile at somebody. It’s contagious, and that’s something good to catch. Spread it!

SUMMARY…
The current small storm system has delivered its coating to 2 inches of snow to much of the region today, and as it redevelops offshore it may deposit another couple inches across Cape Cod. But this progressive system will be moving rapidly away as it develops and intensifies, dragging much colder air from eastern Canada into New England overnight through Friday. This will include wind. Then quickly the attention turns to the next in a seemingly endless series of storms, this one a northern jet stream clipper system that came out of the Arctic circle a couple days ago and has been diving southeastward across Canada, will undercut the Great Lakes and make a turn eastward just south of New England then northward just east of New England, explosively intensifying as it gets over the water. The exact position, rate of strengthening, and track will determine the impact here, but it seems likely that a pretty decent snowfall is again coming, along with very cold temperatures and very strong wind. Blizzard conditions become possible in this set-up, and for that reason a blizzard watch is in effect for Saturday night and Sunday along the coast from the Cape Cod Canal northward. We will talk more about exactly what that means is it appears that it will become a reality and a warning is issued. Suffice it to say, here we go again. An early call on snow amounts for the storm, 8-16 inches with pockets of heavier east of Worcester County except 4-8 inches along the South Coast which may see a little less in the way of moisture wrapping around the storm as it intensifies. 4-8 inches are also expected from Worcester County to RI. These amounts are subject to change and will be fine-tuned as the development of the system is more clearly known. It should not be forgotten that this storm will also have a significant wind component which may lead to power outages, hopefully limited due to the dry nature of the snow, and also presents the risk of coastal flooding at high tide times. More to come on these issues. By later Sunday as it moves away, the snow will have ended, lastly on the coast, and very strong winds will create blowing and drifting, which will last into Monday as winds stay up, along with bitterly cold air, likely the coldest of the season. But we get no break, for even though the coldest is gone by Tuesday, another storm threat is quick to follow, and we may be looking at a snow/ice/rain situation, depending on storm track, later Tuesday and Wednesday. This will be followed by more cold air with dry weather returns by Thursday.

SOUTHEASTERN NEW ENGLAND FORECAST…
TONIGHT: An additional inch or two of snow on Cape Cod otherwise clearing northwest to southeast. Lows 0-5 northwest of Boston, 5-10 to the southeast except 10-15 Cape Cod and Islands. Wind NW increasing to 10-20 MPH with gusts over 30 MPH. Wind chill dropping below 0.
FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 8-13 northwest of Boston, 13-18 Boston to Cape Cod. Wind NW 15-25 MPH with gusts over 30 MPH common. Wind chill around 0 freqently.
FRIDAY NIGHT: Increasing high clouds. Lows -10 to -5 interior, -5 to 0 elsewhere except 0-5 Boston and coastline. Wind W 5-15 MPH.
SATURDAY: Thickening overcast. Snow by mid or late afternoon. Highs 20-25. Wind light variable.
SATURDAY NIGHT: Overcast. Snow, heavy at times, especially eastern MA and southern NH. Blowing and drifting snow. Significant accumulation likely. Possible blizzard conditions near eastern coastal areas. Lows 10-15. Wind NE to N increasing to 15-35 MPH with higher gusts.
SUNDAY: Overcast with snow gradually diminishing from west to east, lastly on the coast and Cape Cod. Additional significant accumulation in the morning, less so in the afternoon, heaviest amounts eastern areas (see above for numbers). Blowing drifting snow. Blizzard conditions possible especially eastern coastal areas. Highs 15-20. Wind NE to N 25-35 MPH with gusts to over 40 MPH inland and over 50 MPH coast.
MONDAY – PRESIDENTS DAY: Sunny and windy. Blowing snow. Low -5. High 10.
TUESDAY: Clouding over. Late-day and nighttime snow with possible mix. Low 5. High 30.
WEDNESDAY: Cloudy with mix/snow AM. Clearing PM. Low 30. High 35.
THURSDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 15. High 25.

6:58PM

SUMMARY…
Not a whole lot of new news to report on this entry. We had a little ocean-effect snow today on the far northwest flank of a large ocean storm. Now that heads off to the North Atlantic waters and the low pressure area we have been expecting comes in from the Great Lakes later Thursday and redevelops offshore Thursday night, acting just about the way we expected, maybe even a bit further out and faster. So the adjustment on this forecast will be tweak snow amounts down and remove the snow threat from the early Friday forecast. Friday itself will be a bright but very windy and cold day. We continue to monitor a storm that will have at least some impact on southern New England over the weekend. Today’s trends are to push the storm a little closer with greater snow/wind impact, but there is enough uncertainty to prompt me to leave the forecast as is for now and continue to monitor. As this pattern goes on, we do expected a blast of extremely cold air for Presidents Day Monday, followed by that previously-mentioned storm threat later Tuesday into Wednesday. That storm may have milder air involved with it and have a more complex precipitation pattern, but it’s quite far out there still and we’ll follow this over the coming days.

SOUTHEASTERN NEW ENGLAND FORECAST…
TONIGHT: Coastal clouds and flurries linger across southeastern MA. Partly cloudy elsewhere. Lows in the 10s. Wind light NE to E early then shifting to N later.
THURSDAY: Becoming cloudy. Snow developing from west to east during the afternoon. Highs 25-30. Wind variable 5-15 MPH.
THURSDAY NIGHT: Cloudy with snow, ending before dawn from west to east. Snow accumulation a coating to 2 inches, with 2-4 inches over Cape Cod and Nantucket. Lows around 10. Wind NE to N increasing to 15-25 MPH with higher gusts. Wind chill falling below 0.
FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs around 15. Wind NW 15-35 MPH. Wind chill near to below 0.
SATURDAY: Sunshine gives way to clouds. Snow late day and night along with increasing wind. Low 0. High 20.
SUNDAY: Cloudy with snow and wind, especially eastern areas, then a clearing trend favoring western areas later day. Low 5. High 15.
MONDAY – PRESIDENTS DAY: Sunny and windy. Low -5. High 10.
TUESDAY: Increasing clouds. Late-day snow. Low -5. High 20.
WEDNESDAY: Cloudy. Chance of snow/ice/rain. Low 20. High 35.

9:54PM

SUMMARY…
The active and incredible Winter pattern, not even 20 days old, continues for a while, but may afford a couple of easier events during the next several days, in terms of snow. We will not be immune to some pretty serious cold air that will arrive not long from now. While many areas continue to dig out and clean up, which will take a very long time in some sections, we’ll continue to have storm threats as the pattern goes on. First, a minor ocean-effect snow event is expected along portions of the eastern Massachusetts coast on Wednesday due to a north northeast wind off the water. This is not expected to produce much, though up to a few inches are possible on the Massachusetts South Shore. Back to the west and north, ocean clouds may never reach and those areas of interior southern New Hampshire into north central and east central MA and down into RI will enjoy some sunshine. On Thursday, clouds will overspread all areas as a low pressure system approaches from the Great Lakes. Like so many of its predecessors, this system will redevelop and intensify off the southern New England Coast, but this time it should do this a little further offshore and keep the heaviest precipitation out over water. Nevertheless, there will be enough for some accumulating snow from the primary storm and mainly over southeastern areas from the redevelopment. That storm will move away by early Friday but as it is intensifying it will pull some very cold air down from eastern Canada again and drag it across New England with a strong wind. The next in the line of storms will drop out of the Great Lakes and off the northern Mid Atlantic Coast by late Saturday and early Sunday. This system is likely to explode into a monster storm over the water but at this time I expect this to be just far enough out there to only side-swipe southeastern New England with a bit of snow, but along with strong wind and very cold air. This system would have high impact with snow if it came a little closer, so we need to keep a very close eye on this one. Regardless of its exact track, as it moves away it will pull even colder air in behind it, which will last through Monday (Presidents Day). By Tuesday, the next storm system will come out of the Ohio Valley and run into this cold air and you know what that means…yet another snow threat, details and timing to be worked out.

SOUTHEASTERN NEW ENGLAND FORECAST…
TONIGHT: Mostly clear to partly cloudy. Lows ranging widely from near -5 interior valleys to +15 Cape Cod. Wind N under 10 MPH except up to 15 MPH along coastal areas.
WEDNESDAY: Coastal clouds increase in eastern MA including ocean-effect snow showers developing, especially along the South Shore of MA where locally 2-4 inches of snow may occur. More sun inland. Highs in the 20s. Wind N to NE 5-15 MPH, gusting over 20 MPH from the South Shore of MA to Cape Cod.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Coastal clouds and flurries linger across southeastern MA. Partly cloudy elsewhere. Lows in the 10s. Wind light NE to E early then shifting to N later.
THURSDAY: Becoming cloudy. Snow developing from west to east late in the day and continuing at night. Early call on accumulation… Coating to 2 inches north and west of Boston, 2-4 inches southeast of a Boston-to-Providence line and possibly Cape Ann, except 4-8 inches outer portion of Cape Cod. Highs around 30. Wind variable 5-15 MPH but becoming NE to N and increasing to 15-25 MPH in eastern areas at night.
FRIDAY: Early clouds and snow showers eastern areas otherwise clearing and windy. Temperatures fall into the 10s.
SATURDAY: Sunshine but high clouds increase from the W and thicken at night. Low 0. High 20.
SUNDAY: Cloudy start with a chance of snow eastern areas, then increasing sun from west to east later. Strong wind. Low 5. High 15.
MONDAY – PRESIDENTS DAY: Sunny and windy. Low -5. High 10.
TUESDAY: Increasing clouds. Late-day snow. Low -5. High 20.

6:32PM

For this blog entry, I’ll keep it simple and short. Whether you love snow or loathe it, you are probably worn out from the insanity of what Nature has thrown at many of us in southern New England since January 24. And yes, it’s only been 2 1/2 weeks, and no, you’re not dreaming. This weather pattern may very well be similar to some of the ones that brought the “great snows” to the natives of the land and the early settlers from across the ocean in the 1600s, and again in the following century, but we can’t be 100% sure because we only have limited hand written accounts by a few people long since departed. We don’t have any satellite data or widespread observational data to examine, only what was written about these events. But another way to describe this pattern is basically the Winter pattern of Labrador, Canada, displaced several hundred miles to the south. We know that such a thing is possible, though rare, in the atmosphere. But here it is.

The only thing really left to say about the just-about-to-end long-duration event is that it performed almost as expected, with the surprises being the South Shore ocean-snow zone setting up early in the event and being heavier than expected. We did expect the ocean-effect bands near the coast, however. But honestly, there will be some amounts above what I was envisioning when I said “8-16 inches with pockets of heavier…” and in places that I thought would be closer to the top of that 8-16 range. Incredible.

So just a quick look at what’s coming up. The same pattern continues. There is no doubt about that. And there are 2 more storm threats, Thursday to early Friday, and sometime over the weekend, likely Sunday. I don’t need to remind you that the further away the event, the less confidence there is forecasting it, so here is my best guess which will be fine-tuned with time. The current system exits by early Tuesday and a break lasts through Wednesday. The next storm, a clipper system, drops into the trough over the Northeast on Thursday and explodes offshore. How close this happens dictates the outcome, and right now it looks like eastern portions of MA and NH stand the greatest chance of heavy snow and strong wind developing on Thursday and ending by early Friday. Very cold air follows this storm, which will include lots of blowing snow where it falls. Another storm threat exists around Sunday, with medium range guidance split between a near miss and a big hit, so we’ll split the difference for now and go for a graze. This threat should be over by Monday, a holiday for some, which will be another very cold day, assuring us that the snow is going nowhere anytime soon.

SOUTHEASTERN NEW ENGLAND FORECAST…
TONIGHT: Cloudy. Periods of snow. Blowing snow. Additional accumulation 1 to 3 inches. Lows from near 10 northwest of Boston to near 20 Cape Cod. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, gusting around 30 MPH.
TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy start with additional snow showers near eastern coastal locations, then clearing. Highs 25-30. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.
TUESDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear to partly cloudy. Lows in the 10s. Wind light N.
WEDNESDAY: Partly sunny except more clouds near eastern coastal areas with a risk of snow showers. Highs around 30. Wind N to NE 5-15 MPH.
THURSDAY: Cloudy. Snow develops PM, possibly heavy at night including wind. Low 15. High 30.
FRIDAY: AM snow and wind. PM clearing. Low 10. High 20.
SATURDAY: Sun to clouds. Low -5. High 15.
SUNDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of snow and wind. Low 5. High 15.
MONDAY: Partly sunny. Low 0. High 15.

5:40PM

ONGOING…
Long-duration winter weather event continues. Through the middle of Sunday afternoon, snow amounts were generally from 1 to 6 inches across the region though little if any snow had fallen near parts of the South Coast, and heaviest amounts were up over portions of northern MA and southern NH. This portion of the event generally went as expected with waves of snow moving eastward along and north of a front that passed by yesterday, and a few pockets of ocean-enhanced snow from the east, though this was concentrated a little more to the south of Boston than I expected. The bulk of this event is still coming and will get underway this evening and last through Monday night before exiting early Tuesday. At this time, there are still no significant changes to the overall break-down of how I expect this to go. Mixing is still likely along the South Coast with limited snow totals there, and elsewhere additional moderate accumulation seems a certainty. The key to the accumulation forecast continues to be where enhancement takes place and the thinking has been this is most likely to be near and just west of a boundary somewhere near the coast from the Boston area to the NH Seacoast region, and also in some of the eastern slopes of the Worcester Hills. For now this remains the idea though little subtle details may still be yet to reveal themselves. For example, the boundary that I can detect has been a little further east and slower to start producing in areas to the north of Boston than I expected. That said, as of the writing of this update just after 5PM on Sunday, the radar trends upstream (to the west) tell me that a decent shot of snow will be coming tonight and probably continuing into tomorrow. We will have to see what happens with the potential enhanced snow areas. After debating with myself, I have decided to leave the snow totals alone for now, but may need to update them later. So the total snow for this event, INCLUDING snow that has already fallen, is still expected to be on the order of 2-4 inches South Coast, 4-8 inches just inland from the South Coast, and 8-16 inches elsewhere with pockets of greater than 16 inches in parts of northeastern MA, southeastern NH, and eastern slopes of hills.

UPCOMING…
The entire mess that created the long-duration event will be shifting offshore by early Tuesday in the form of elongated low pressure stretching north to south, quite different from the original look it had. But no matter, as it will be out of here. What arrives next is dry but chilly weather as a small area of high pressure comes in later Tuesday and persists through Wednesday. But here comes the next trough in a series and that will traverse the Northeast from west to east Thursday and early Friday. This presents the next snow threat and I still have a fair amount of questions to answer regarding how I think this will work out, snow-wise. For now, it appears that some type of snow event will take place starting early Thursday and ending early Friday, and it has the potential to be at least moderate. After it departs, the door opens for a strong shot of Arctic air later Friday and into the weekend. The magnitude of this cold is also somewhat uncertain, as this type of cold outbreak usually presents a fragile forecast with timing of the cold core very critical to daytime and nighttime temperatures, along with sky condition, wind, and precipitation. A lower confidence forecast will appear regarding any further snow chances, as I am leaning toward the drier side versus the stormy side, but recognize that there is indeed potential for something more important to evolve. One thing is for sure, it’s going to be quite cold next weekend.

SOUTHEASTERN NEW ENGLAND FORECAST…
TONIGHT AND MONDAY: Overcast with snow likely, some moderate to heavy, except some sleet/ice/rain near the South Coast. Additional snow accumulation at least 1-3 inches South Coast, 3-6 inches just inland from the South Coast, and 6-12 inches elsewhere with heavier pockets in above mentioned areas. Temperatures ranging from the middle 10s north to lower 30s far south. Wind N 5-15 MPH and gusty most areas except NE 10-20 MPH and gusty closer to the coast and especially over southeastern MA. Wind chill near 0 especially Boston north and west.
MONDAY NIGHT: Cloudy with snow showers. Additional light accumulation likely. Blowing snow. Lows 5-10 northwest of Boston, 10-15 Boston to Cape Cod. Wind N 10-20 MPH with higher gusts. Wind chill below 0.
TUESDAY: Early snow showers eastern coastal areas and may linger into mid morning Cape Cod, otherwise breaking clouds west to east with some sun. Highs in the 20s. Wind N to NW 15-25 MPH Cape Cod, 5-15 MPH elsewhere.
WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 10. High 25.
THURSDAY: Cloudy. Chance of snow. Low 20. High 30.
FRIDAY: Chance of snow early. Clearing. Low 10. High 20.
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY: Partly sunny. Chance of snow showers. Lows -10 to +5 northwest to southeast. Highs 5-15, coldest northwest.

9:54AM

SUMMARY…
This is just a quick update to the previous post. There are no changes to the discussion there, and the next one will be posted tonight, so for now I am just going to repost a slightly tweaked forecast from that update including the total snowfall accumulation forecast, which I have left alone at this time. Also, will add next Saturday for the new “day 7” and then later tonight will revisit the entire thing and forecast the coming 7 days through next Sunday.

SNOW…
***TOTAL ACCUMULATION EXPECTED FOR EVENT FROM START TO FINISH: 2-4 inches immediate South Coast, 4-8 inches just away from South Coast from central RI eastward across Upper Cape Cod, and 8-16 inches elsewhere, and spotty amounts above 16 inches are likely along east coastal MA and NH as well as a few towns on eastern slopes of higher hills.

SOUTHEASTERN NEW ENGLAND FORECAST…
TODAY: Overcast. Periods of snow, mostly light. Additional accumulation around 1 inch with locally 2 inches mainly north of the Mass Pike. Temperatures nearly steady from 15-20 southern NH to near 30 South Coast. Wind NE to E 5-15 MPH.
TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT: Overcast. Steadier snow, mostly light to moderate with a few heavier bands favoring east coastal areas of MA and NH. Additional accumulation of 2 to 10 inches from south to north with locally heavier possible in parts of northeastern MA and southeastern NH. Also, sleet/ice/rain mixing near the South Coast at times. Temperatures nearly steady ranging from the upper 10s northern MA and southern NH to lower 30s South Coast. Wind NE to E 5-15 MPH, higher gusts, later Monday, shifting more to the NE and N Monday night.
TUESDAY: Early snow showers especially eastern areas otherwise clearing. Breezy. Highs in the 20s.
WEDNESDAY: Sunny. Low 15. High 25.
THURSDAY: Cloudy. PM snow or snow showers. Low 20. High 30.
FRIDAY: Early snow, then clearing and windy. Low 0. High 10.
SATURDAY: Sun & high clouds. Low -10. High 5.

11:32AM

SUMMARY…
Time to focus on the well-advertised long-duration snow event. The set-up has been described in previous entries but let’s review quickly. An arctic cold front settles southward across southern New England today and then sits just off the South Coast for the rest of the weekend as a couple waves of low pressure ride along it, producing periods of snow, first very patchy and light this afternoon then a little more so tonight and Sunday, then with the most widespread precipitation coming Sunday night and Monday as a final and slightly stronger wave of low pressure moves along the front. This final wave may come a little bit closer, enough to introduce mixed precipitation to South Coastal locations, but at this time I don’t see any mix coming further north than that as the cold air will be a stronger force, aided by a deep snow cover across just about all of southern New England. Snow amounts from the entire episode are about to be listed below and I will try to re-visit them by time period in the forecast that follows this summary. It’s important to note that there can be large variations in snowfall across the region, not only due to the somewhat disorganized nature of the precipitation associated with these disturbances, but also due to ocean-enhancement which will likely be a factor near the eastern coastal areas of MA and NH, and then the mix factor possibly being involved near the South Coast later in the event. ***TOTAL ACCUMULATION EXPECTED FOR EVENT FROM START TO FINISH: 2-4 inches immediate South Coast, 4-8 inches just away from South Coast from central RI eastward across Upper Cape Cod, and 8-16 inches elsewhere, and spotty amounts above 16 inches are likely along east coastal MA and NH as well as a few towns on eastern slopes of higher hills. There are some signs that the entire event may try to wrap up a bit earlier than previously though, but for now will leave the chance of snow showers in eastern NH and MA into Tuesday morning especially Cape Cod due to cold north wind over relatively warmer water behind the intensifying final low pressure wave. A quick “break” comes later Tuesday and Wednesday as a narrow high pressure area moves in, though it will be fairly cold but not frigid. A clipper low pressure system and attendant Arctic front comes through the region next Thursday with a minor snow event, but opens the door for a major cold blast to end the week.

SOUTHEASTERN NEW ENGLAND FORECAST…
TODAY: Clouding up. Patchy light snow possible this afternoon with less than 1 inch accumulation. Highs 25-30 southern NH and northern MA, 30-35 to the south, then falling slowly during the afternoon. Wind light SW shifting to NW then N from north to south across the region.
TONIGHT & SUNDAY: Overcast. Periods of snow, mostly light to moderate. Accumulation 2 to 6 inches through this period with locally heavier possible in parts of northeastern MA and southeastern NH, and areas of below 2 inches closer to the South Coast. Temperatures nearly steady from 15-20 southern NH to near 30 South Coast. Wind NE to E 5-15 MPH.
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT: Overcast. Steadier snow, mostly light to moderate with a few heavier bands favoring east coastal areas of MA and NH. Additional accumulation of 2 to 8 inches from south to north with locally heavier possible in parts of northeastern MA and southeastern NH. Also, sleet/ice/rain mixing near the South Coast at times. Temperatures nearly steady ranging from the upper 10s northern MA and southern NH to lower 30s South Coast. Wind NE to E 5-15 MPH, higher gusts, later Monday, shifting more to the NE and N Monday night.
TUESDAY: Early snow showers especially eastern areas otherwise clearing. Breezy. Highs in the 20s.
WEDNESDAY: Sunny. Low 15. High 25.
THURSDAY: Cloudy. Snow or snow showers. Low 20. High 30.
FRIDAY: Sunny and windy. Low -5. High 10.

8:54AM

SUMMARY…
Below zero temperatures greet many early morning risers and those temperatures will struggle to rise but will finally make it to the 10s in most areas during the day. Though not too windy, a bit of a breeze will add a bit to the air at times. Expect a dry day as we are in between yesterday’s snow-producing Arctic front and the upcoming prolonged snow event, you know, that well-advertised snow event that according to some computer models was going to dump 1 to 2 feet of snow on much of southern New England? Shame shame shame if you believed that. 😉 What is really about to happen is we’ll see Arctic high pressure banked up across northern New England and southeastern Canada supplying plenty of cold air, and a frontal boundary sitting just south of New England with 2 or 3 areas of low pressure moving along it. These will provide episodes of snow starting by Saturday afternoon and ending by Tuesday afternoon. During this time, there will likely be several inches of snow accumulating across most locations. I’ve been tossing numbers around in my head and am starting to feel comfortable with the idea of 3-6 inches along the South Coast with a few spotty higher amounts, and 6-10 inches everywhere else but with spotty amounts of greater than 10 inches possible, especially due to ocean-enhancement in coastal areas from Boston to the NH Seacoast. The wildcard will be the last low pressure wave which has slight potential to develop a little stronger than the others and therefore enhance snowfall. This would be later Monday into early Tuesday. By the middle of next week, we will have said bye to the snow train and will see a dry and cold day Wednesday and then another threat of snow from a clipper system on Thursday as the harsh February pattern continues.

SOUTHEASTERN NEW ENGLAND FORECAST…
TODAY: Partly cloudy. Highs in the 10s. Wind W 5-15 MPH gusting 20-25 MPH.
TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. Temperatures steady in the 10s. Wind WSW 5-15 MPH.
SATURDAY: Clouding up. Periods of snow in the afternoon with less than 2 inches. Highs in the 20s. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.
SUNDAY & MONDAY: Cloudy. Periods of snow with moderate accumulation most likely (see above). Temperatures steady mainly in the 10s southern NH and northern MA, 20s to 30 southern MA and RI.
TUESDAY: Snow ends. Clearing and windy. Low 15. High 25.
WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 10. High 25.
THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of snow. Low 15. High 30.

8:42AM

Good morning all. I apologize for the lack of updates the last couple of days. Been dealing with 2 health issues that have slowed me down. Here is a short update to catch you up on my thoughts regarding the upcoming weather…

SUMMARY…
Arctic cold front slides through southern New England from northwest to southeast today with a band of snow, though fairly minor in accumulation will result in slick spots, especially where some overnight light rain/freezing rain fell in relatively mild air. Behind this front the snow lingers briefly then ends, and temperatures plunge as Arctic air moves in with winds picking up. Anything on the ground will freeze solid and the air will have a nasty bite to it right into Friday as the wind stays up, though Friday’s weather will be dry. Saturday through Tuesday will be a stretch of snowy weather as a frontal boundary sets up just to the south with ripples of low pressure riding along it, and a big Arctic high centered to the north of the region in eastern Canada. This is the type of set up that will produce snow much of the time, but light to moderate in intensity for the balance of the event. Accumulation mounts up, but fairly slowly. We’ll just have to watch for one slightly stronger low coming along Monday or early Tuesday that could enhance snow across the region. Otherwise some of the higher prolonged snow totals would be near eastern coastal areas due to ocean enhancement. These details will be fine-tuned as we get closer… Dry and cold weather is expected to return by the middle of next week.

SOUTHEASTERN NEW ENGLAND FORECAST…
TODAY: Overcast with a band of snow moving northwest to southeast across the region morning-midday followed by a clearing trend later in the day. Snow accumulation 2-4 inches northwest of Boston, coating to 2 inches Boston southeastward. Temperatures fall from the 30s to the 20s southern MA and RI, 20s to the 10s northwest of Boston. Wind NW increasing to 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.
TONIGHT: Clear. Lows -10 to +5, coldest in south central NH and north central MA, least cold urban centers and South Coast. Wind NW 15-25 MPH and gusty. Wind chill -10 to -20.
FRIDAY: Partly sunny. Highs around 20. Wind NW 10-20 MPH with higher gusts. Wind chill below 10 at times.
SATURDAY: Cloudy. PM light snow. Low 10. High 20.
SUNDAY: Cloudy. Periods of snow. Low 15. High 25.
MONDAY: Cloudy. Periods of snow. Low 20. High 30.
TUESDAY: Snow ending. Clearing. Low 15. High 25.
WEDNESDAY: Sunny. Low 10. High 20.