10:48AM

The old folklore quote used for the title is meant to apply to the middle of winter, the climatological peak of the cold days coming in January, after the shortest day of the year and in the weeks when the sunlight time is increasing. It was not intended to represent the weather in mid to late March, but we may find that it applies this particular year, because we are now in and will remain in a cold pattern for some time to come. And this cold will not be without additional winter storm threats, especially one coming up early in the week. Though by practice I don’t get too details about storms outside of 48 hours before onset, I will say that reliable guidance and my own meteorological thinking has me concerned about the impact of this event, which will almost certainly feature some front-end accumulating snow, may possibly deliver some icing to parts of the region mid storm, and may end with a burst of significant snow (the duration, location, and timing of which will be critical). More details to come on this potential winter storm.

In the mean time, a wave of low pressure passing south of southern New England will throw some clouds across the region during the day today but its precipitation will stay south of the region, possibly just skirting the South Coast with a touch of light snow. High pressure will move in for a bright but cold St. Patrick’s Day on Sunday, lingering into Monday just ahead of the advancing storm.

Behind whatever that storm brings us, the middle to end of next week look on the cold side with limited sun and a threat of some minor precipitation events.

Updated forecast for southeastern New England…

TODAY: Increasing clouds. Slight chance of a little light snow along the South Coast with no accumulation. Highs around 40. Wind NW 5-15 MPH becoming light variable later.

TONIGHT: Clearing. Lows upper 10s to middle 20s. Wind light variable.

SUNDAY – ST. PATRICK’S DAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 35-40. Wind NW 10-20 MPH and gusty.

MONDAY: Sunny start, cloudy finish. Snow/mix developing at night. Low 19. High 38.

TUESDAY: Storm of rain/ice/snow (details to come but may be significant). Low 29. High 35.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Low 22. High 40.

THURSDAY: Partly sunny. Low 25. High 38.

FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy. Low 24. High 38.

1:15AM

The cold will be here for some time, as least in terms of March normals. That part is established. It will be mainly dry through the weekend into the very early part of next week. Only a light chance of light precipitation occurs with the passage of a weak disturbance late Friday while another low pressure area goes just south of New England on Saturday bringing nothing but the chance of a few light snow showers, largely a miss. A stronger low center will cruise into the Great Lakes early next week and redevelop near southern New England. With cold air locked in place, we’ll have to pay close attention to this system as it moves through the region Monday night into Tuesday. Though it’s still too early for details, there is certainly some threat of wintry precipitation with this system. After its passage, it looks like a chilly and drier pattern will resume.

Forecast for southeastern New England…

OVERNIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows around 20 but ranging to the upper 20s to 30 urban centers and Cape Cod. Wind NW 5-15 MPH gusting over 20 MPH.

FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy. Highs 35-40. Wind NW 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Chance of a few light snow showers. Lows 25-30. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY: Variably cloudy. Highs 35-40. Wind W to NW 10-20 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 20-25. Wind W 5-10 MPH.

SUNDAY – ST. PATRICK’S DAY: Mostly sunny. Highs around 40. Wind NW to W 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY: Sunny start, cloudy finish, chance of mix/snow at night. Low 25. High 35.

TUESDAY: Storm of rain/ice/snow. Low 30. High 40.

WEDNESDAY: Partly sunny. Low 27. High 41.

THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 22. High 39.

2:31AM

Hello, March Chill! Although it won’t be excessively cold, a below normal temperature pattern is setting up shop across the Northeast as the jet stream dips to the south for much of the coming week. A series of cold fronts is pushing through the region through Friday, delivering the cold air. A wave of low pressure will pass just south of New England Saturday and produce lots of clouds with some threat of light snow/mix but it looks very minor. A more important system will come along from the west early next week with additional precipitation. This looks more important than Saturday’s system but does not look like a major storm.

Forecast for southeastern New England…

TODAY: Lots of clouds, some sun, isolated light snow showers. Highs 35-40. Wind NW 10-20 MPH.

TONIGHT: Clouds decrease. Lows 25-30. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 35-40. Wind light N.

SATURDAY: Mostly cloudy. Showers of rain/mix/snow possible. Low 27. High 40.

SUNDAY – ST. PATRICK’S DAY: Partly to mostly sunny.  Low 22. High 41.

MONDAY: Sunshine to clouds. Low 24. High 40.

TUESDAY: Cloudy with rain/mix/snow. Low 31. High 40.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Low 29. High 39.

1:06AM

Even though the cold front that brought us a ribbon of rain Tuesday evening is now offshore, there isn’t an immediate push of cold air behind it. That will have to wait until a secondary front crosses the region later Wednesday, which will be a mild day, the last in a short series of them. After this, temperatures will be running near to below normal through the balance of next week, along with a few precipitation threats, which including the possibility of snow. Not looking for any big storms right now, though a system threatening early next week does need to be watched. For now I am leaning toward a progressive and minor to moderate impact with it, but keep in mind it is many days away. Before that gets here, a minor low pressure wave may bring some lighter precipitation early in the coming weekend. I’m confident this will not be a significant system.

Forecast for southeastern New England (southern NH, eastern MA, and RI)…

OVERNIGHT: Lingering rain showers southeastern MA end otherwise breaking clouds. Lows middle 30s to lower 40s. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Sunshine & passing clouds. Highs upper 40s to middle 50s. Wind W 10-20 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Clouds return west to east. A few showers of rain to snow late. Lows 30-35. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy. A few snow showers mainly through midday. Highs near 40. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 22. High 38.

SATURDAY: Mostly cloudy. PM rain/snow showers. Low 28. High 38.

SUNDAY – ST. PATRICK’S DAY: Mostly sunny. Low 24. High 41.

MONDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 26. High 43.

TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Snow/rain likely. Low 31. High 41.

12:34AM

50 degrees for a high temp on Monday in Boston, 50+ Tuesday and again Wednesday. It’s a trio of mildness, melting lots of snow, but about half way through it will be a bout of rain as a cold front ambles west to east across the region. This will take place Tuesday midday through Tuesday night. Some flooding of streams and small rivers is possible due to rain combined with melting snow from late Tuesday through midweek. Some of the medium to larger rivers may have minor flooding in prone areas during midweek.

Colder air will return later in the week as an upper level trough swings across the region Thursday and Friday. A wave of low pressure will come along Saturday and produce a minor to moderate precipitation event. The timing and precipitation type is unknown at this time, but it does have a decent chance of producing some snow. Right now it looks like the system will get out of the way for St. Patrick’s Day on Sunday.

Updated forecast for southeastern New England…

OVERNIGHT: Cloudy. Lows 40-45. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY: Cloudy. Rain showers developing from west to east midday through afternoon. Highs 50-55. Wind S 10-20 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Cloudy with rain showers, some possibly heavy, ending west to east late. Breaking clouds following. Lows around 40. Wind W 10-20 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Partly cloudy. Highs 50-55. Wind W 10-20 MPH.

THURSDAY: Partly sunny. Low 28. High 39.

FRIDAY: Partly sunny. Low 26. High 39.

SATURDAY: Cloudy. PM rain/mix to mix/snow. Low 29. High 38.

SUNDAY – ST. PATRICK’S DAY: Mostly sunny. Low 27. High 41.

MONDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 22. High 40.

10:20PM

We’ve been battered by some stormy weather in the last several weeks, but this was not really a surprise. Long range forecasts heading into winter did indicate that the 2nd half of winter may be the part loaded with the storms that produced the most snow, and leading up close to this stretch of weather the indications were pretty strongly in favor of this. The coming week may not be as stormy overall, but will still have some events and changes. A warm front will push into the region Monday with clouds but no precipitation. That will hold off until Tuesday afternoon and night as a cold front approaches the region. Tuesday will be a very mild day, and some of this mild air will hang around for Wednesday even though the cold front will have past. A second cold front will bring colder air for the end of the week, and upper level low pressure nearby may bring periods of cloudiness as well. For the moment it looks like a mostly dry period of weather, however, though there may be a storm system of some kind heading into the region sometime over the weekend.

Forecast for southeastern New England…

TONIGHT: Lots of clouds, areas of fog. Lows upper 20s to lower 30s. Wind light variable.

MONDAY: Areas of fog early, lots of clouds, some sun. Highs around 50. Wind light S.

MONDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Lows around 40. Wind S 10-15 MPH.

TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Numerous rain showers developing west to east afternoon. Highs upper 40s south-facing shores to middle 50s inland. Wind S to SW 10-25 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 37. High 51.

THURSDAY: Partly sunny. Low 27. High 39.

FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy. Low 29. High 39.

SATURDAY: Partly sunny. Low 26. High 40.

SUNDAY – ST. PATRICK’S DAY: Cloudy. Chance of mix/snow. Low 29. High 37.

4:02AM

Did you all change your clocks forward one hour? At least the ones you have to change…so many change themselves now. 🙂

Quick forecast update here with a full discussion for the coming week later today.

HIGHLIGHTS… High pressure dominates today with nice weather but the coast is cooler with that developing east wind that is a signature of the coming Spring in this area. Warm front approaches Monday with lots of clouds. Not sure if it pushes through easily – if it doesn’t then we stay in the 40s, if it does then we jump into the 50s. Will play  middle of the road for now. Cold front approaches Tuesday, a mild day, but rain shower threat increases. Windy and variably cloudy day Wednesday as an upper low comes across the region and a secondary cold front approaches. Keeping it dry for now. Colder air dominates later in the week but storm threat this far out now appears minimal. Will continue to watch it.

FORECAST for southeastern New England…

TODAY: Any patchy fog dissipates early and areas of frost and black ice melt away by mid to late morning. Mostly sunny to partly cloudy. Highs approach 50 then fall back into the 40s especially near the coast. Wind light variable becoming E up to 10 MPH especially coast.

TONIGHT: Clouds increase. Lows in the 30s. Wind light E to SE.

MONDAY: Mostly cloudy. Highs around 50. Wind light SE to S.

TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Late-day rain showers. Low 39. High 54.

WEDNESDAY: Variably cloudy. Low 29. High 46.

THURSDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 22. High 39.

FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy. Low 26. High 39.

SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 26. High 41.

7:47PM

As the final flakes finish flying on the South Coast this Friday evening, the numbers are in! And the jackpot from the big not-quite-so-accurately-forecast snowstorm is …… Milton Massachusetts! More specifically, the top of Great Blue Hill, with 29.8 inches of snow! This is the 5th largest snowstorm on record for this historic observatory!

Quick commentary on the storm, which was obviously very badly under-forecast by myself. In talking with a colleague, we agree that this reminds us of a similar snowfall forecast bust that took place on December 23 1997. The highest snow forecast in the media was 4-8 inches due to marginal temperatures and an expected flip between rain and snow. The forecast for the temperature was a couple degrees to warm, and when it came in colder, snow took over, and 1 to 2 feet later…. Well you can see, similar story here. One saving grace of a colder storm is that the snow was not quite as wet and pasty during the  height of it, and this limited the build up on trees and power lines, thus limiting  power outages issues. Significant coastal flooding and beach erosion did take place in some sections, as expected. An interesting note was a “snow-void” region in much of RI during the first 2/3 of the storm. This will be a subject of study and I’ll have further info on that soon. The most unusual aspect of this storm would  have to be that the center was several hundred miles south to southeast of New England yet it was able to crank heavy precipitation in here. Remarkable storm.

Moving forward…

The big storm will be cranking far offshore as it drifts away this weekend and we are in a sliver of high pressure that will bring dry weather, milder air, and lots of melting snow. A warm front will approach Monday with more clouds, and this may hold back a warm-up. Briefly warmer air should come through the region Tuesday but will likely be accompanied by rain showers triggered by an approaching cold front. This front will be moving offshore Wednesday but upper level low pressure may bring clouds and a chance of snow showers. Cold air will be more established by Thursday and a wave of low pressure brings a chance of mixed precipitation or snow by next Friday, based on current expected timing of systems.

Forecast for southeastern New England…

TONIGHT: Any lingering mix/snow showers end along the South Coast otherwise mostly to partly cloudy. Lows 25-30. Wind N 10-20 MPH.

SATURDAY: Clouds give way to sun. Highs 43-48. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 25-30 except near 20 some valleys. Wind calm.

SUNDAY: Sun giving way to clouds. Highs 43-48. Wind E 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY: Cloudy. Low 33. High 46.

TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of rain showers. Low 36. High 48.

WEDNESDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of snow showers. Low 23. High 34.

THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 21. High 33.

FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of mix/snow. Low 22. High 34.

5:12PM

What’s already happened: More snow than expected due to slightly colder temperatures. The accumulation south of Boston Thursday morning was the biggest surprise to me. Persistent dry air has limited snowfall in much of RI. Otherwise the overall behavior of the storm has been as expected, with limited accumulation during the day and strong winds especially along the coast.

What’s still to come: The very large storm, centered far southeast of New England, covers such a large area that southeastern New England will remain under its influence through much of Friday. The peak of this storm will occur during tonight, when it will be cold enough in just about all the region for accumulating snow. Significant amounts will take place in some areas. Based on current trends, the expected ADDITIONAL snow (not including what has already fallen, including what melted off today) will be 2-5 inches from southern NH through much of eastern MA, but more variable amounts of 5-9 inches or even locally heavier are expected especially in higher elevations southwest of Boston to northern RI, then a drop-off in snow amounts as you progress eastward across Cape Cod to under 3 inches on the Outer Cape and Nantucket. Most of this will fall tonight, and as daylight returns Friday, the accumulation will shut off again even though some snow may continue well into the morning, ending as a mix or rain in parts of the region by early afternoon. Combined with snow that already fell, some areas especially south and southwest of Boston will have snowfall totals of 10+ inches, though with some melting of the initial accumulation having taken place, that amount of snow will never be on the ground.

Despite increased snow totals, the biggest story with the storm will still be the wind and coastal flooding. Scituate and Sandwich MA are the most vulnerable spots during high tides through Friday morning with moderate to possibly major flooding possible.  Elsewhere, mostly minor to moderate flooding is expected.

Despite the storm center being so far away, its large circulation combined with a channel of upper level energy moving along a trough that runs from near the Great Lakes toward the storm center, some of which passes over this area, enhancing the precipitation tonight. It should all wrap up and get out of here by later Friday as the storm and associated energy finally pulls away.

The weekend will feature fair weather but some clouds may linger Saturday due to a little disturbance aloft and a tilt of wind to northeast at the surface. More sun will dominate later Saturday and again early Sunday before some additional clouds return later Sunday. A warm front approaching Monday will bring clouds. A push of very mild air Tuesday will be followed by a cold front bringing rain showers, then a return to cooler but dry weather by the middle of next week.

Updated forecast for southeastern New England…

TONIGHT: Overcast. Mix to snow Cape Cod and Islands, snow elsewhere. See above for accumulations). Lows upper 20s to lower 30s. Wind N 15-35 MPH gusting 40-55 MPH, strongest along the coast especially Cape Cod.

FRIDAY: Cloudy. Snow tapering and changing to mix/rain before ending by early afternoon. Little additional accumulation of snow. Highs middle to upper 30s. Wind N 15-35 MPH with stronger gusts especially along the coast.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Partial clearing. Lows 25-30. Wind N 15-30 MPH.

SATURDAY: Partly sunny morning. Mostly sunny afternoon. Highs 43-48. Wind NNE 15-25 MPH  in the morning diminishing in the afternoon.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows in the 20s. Wind light N.

SUNDAY: Mostly sunny morning. Partly sunny afternoon. Highs 43-48. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY: Cloudy. Low 38. High 47.

TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Rain showers. Low 39. High 49.

WEDNESDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 38. High 50.

THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 22. High 44.

9:05PM

7:30AM update to adjust snow (again)

This 3-day storm should be a good example to meteorologists and non-meteorologists alike that most things do not follow what you may read in a text book. When forecasting for a region, you have so much to take into account. It’s easy to fall into a trap when you know a winter storm threatens. Well yes, it is “winter”, but it’s March, not January. Climate says that these 2 times of year are not the same, and storms act differently on a local scale in response to the variance in climate from one time of winter to another. This was a major factor in my analysis going into the forecast for this prolonged late winter storm, and based on it, I’m not making any great changes to the overall thinking from the last update. The snowfall tweaks will come from the fact that I expect the heaviest precipitation to be confined to areas mostly south of Boston. The limiting factor of daylight will play in still, keeping snow amounts down, since a significant amount of the measurable precipitation will occur during the daylight hours of Thursday. Come Thursday night, most of the visible accumulation will occur. Moderate to strong winds from the northeast to north will occur, especially in coastal areas, but without an accumulation of heavy, wet snow in these areas, power outages will be limited. High tides Thursday morning, Thursday evening, and Friday morning will be the most significant in terms of flooding, though mostly minor to moderate flooding is expected. The most significant flooding is likely to occur in the Sandwich MA area on the Friday morning high tide. All of this will be taking place due to a storm with a very large circulation moving eastward off the Mid Atlantic Coast, passing south of New England. It will be with us through Friday. Snowfall amounts through Friday: 0-2 Cape Cod & Islands up along the eastern MA shore to eastern Cape Ann, 2-6 elsewhere except 6-9 in the higher elevations mainly from southern Worcester County MA into northern RI. A few of the higher elevations further north in Worcester County to southwestern NH may see 5+ depending on how steady the snow is on Thursday night through early Friday. It’s important to note that these are snow totals but there will probably never be that much on the ground from this storm at any given location, due to melting during the storm.

After this is all done, a more quiet pattern will set it. A more in depth discussion of the weekend and early next week will follow on the next blog entry.

Forecast for southeastern New England…

TONIGHT & THURSDAY… Overcast with periods of snow, except rain/mix toward Cape Cod. Temperatures in the 30s. Wind NE 15-35 MPH gusting 40-55 MPH, some stronger gusts Cape Cod & Islands.

THURSDAY NIGHT & FRIDAY… Overcast with snow and some mix, heaviest south and southwest of Boston, tapering off as more of a mix during the day Friday. For total accumulations see above. Temperatures cooling middle to lower 30s. Wind NE to N 15-35 MPH, higher gusts.

SATURDAY: Partly sunny AM. Mostly sunny PM. Low 28. High 46.

SUNDAY: Mostly sunny AM. Partly sunny PM. Low 33. High 49.

MONDAY: Cloudy. Low 37. High 46.

TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Rain showers likely. Low 38. High 50.

WEDNESDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 31. High 41.

5:55PM

A disclaimer off the top: This forecast is still a low to medium confidence one as of late Tuesday afternoon because of the factors going into the amount of precipitation and the placement and movement of a rain/snow line regarding the upcoming storm. I will be monitoring the situation and issuing updates as often as needed.

** Update issued at 7:25AM Wednesday **

A major storm coming off the Mid Atlantic Coast Wednesday will track pretty far south to southeast of New England (in terms of the center), but it is such a large circulation that it will impact all of southern New England with precipitation including some significant snow. The greatest impact from this event will likely be wind and tide related, along with tree and power line damage where the heaviest snow falls, as it will be on the heavy/wet side due to marginal temperatures.

The break-down…

TIMING: 3-day event, starting Wednesday as clouds thicken and winds increase from the east to northeast. Precipitation arrives Wednesday night and is likely rain at the coast and a mix inland. Heaviest precipitation occurs Thursday and Thursday evening in the form of mostly snow inland and mix transitioning to snow at the coast, lastly over Cape Cod and the Islands. Precipitation lingers into Friday morning and may go to mix/rain coast and just inland as it lightens up but will probably remain as mix/snow further inland.

WIND: Winds start out east to northeast during the day Wednesday and become mostly northeast Wednesday night then shift to mostly northerly Thursday and Thursday night into Friday. Strongest winds take place during the day Thursday but they will be pretty strong from Wednesday night through the early hours of Friday. Peak gusts will be over 55 MPH across Cape Cod and the Islands, 45-55 MPH in the remainder of coastal RI, MA, and NH, and 35-45 MPH over inland areas except 45-55 MPH in some higher elevations.

TIDES: Moderate coastal flooding and beach erosion will be most prevalent 2 hours before through 2 hours after the high tides especially Thursday through early Friday along east-facing and especially north-facing shores. Scituate and Sandwich MA may see some of the worst of the flooding.

SNOW: This is subject to change because of the difficulty in forecasting positioning and movement of rain/snow lines, but a first guess…0-2 inches Cape Cod & Islands from east to west, least on the outer Cape & Nantucket, 2-4 inches remainder of eastern MA to the east of I-95 including the immediate coast of NH and coastal RI with up to 5 inches in some higher elevations, 4-8 inches near and west of I-95 with 8+ inches possible in higher elevations. This snow will be occurring over a fairly long period of time, so it may limit road impact to some extent, though expect difficult travel in areas of heavier snow that occur.

POWER OUTAGES: These possible from heavy wet snow accumulating on trees and power lines, especially where 4 or more inches of snow falls. They may also occur due to wind damage especially in coastal areas.

After the storm…

Forget the significant warm-up for the weekend as a north to northwest flow will dominate Saturday and be reinforced Sunday, keeping it in the 40s for daytime highs (though sunshine at times, especially Saturday afternoon & Sunday morning will feel nice).

More unsettled weather arrives early next week but not looking like a big storm at this time.

Forecast for southeastern New England (southern NH, eastern MA, and RI)…

WEDNESDAY: Cloudy. Spotty light rain or drizzle possible during the morning and again late in the day. Highs around 40. Wind NE to E 10-20 MPH gusting around or over 30 MPH mid afternoon on especially near the coast.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Overcast. Rain to mix coast, mix to snow inland. Lows in the 30s. Wind E to NE 15-25 MPH inland, 25-35 MPH coast with stronger gusts (see above).

THURSDAY & THURSDAY NIGHT: Overcast with snow inland, mix to snow coast. Most of the accumulation of snow takes place during this period (see above). Temperatures holding in the 30s, coldest inland. Wind NE to N 15-35 MPH with stronger gusts (see above).

FRIDAY: Cloudy. Lighter precipitation – snow to mix inland, mix/rain coast with little additional snow accumulation. Highs around 40. Wind N 10-30 MPH, strongest coastal areas.

SATURDAY: Mostly cloudy AM. Partly cloudy PM. Low 30. High 44.

SUNDAY: Mostly sunny AM. Partly sunny PM. Low 31. High 45.

MONDAY: Cloudy. Low 32. High 42.

TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Rain showers possible. Low 38. High 49.

7:30AM

Yes a very big storm will be developing along the Mid Atlantic Coast by tomorrow and impacting southeastern New England for 3 days through Friday. What’s known is that wind will be a big issue, along with coastal flooding problems at high tide times from tomorrow night through Friday (most likely to be minor to moderate). What’s still a bit up in the air is a rain/snow line. For now looking at mostly snow/mix in higher elevations from south central NH through interior MA and northern RI, mostly rain along the coast, and a combination of both in between. There may be a transition to snow closer to the coast with time. By later today, another update will try to nail down timing of precipitation and snow amounts.

Before this, one more day of another big storm offshore to the east spinning lots of clouds and possibly a few rain or snow showers into the area before it gets out of the way for its big brother.

Forecast for southeastern New England…

TODAY: Mostly cloudy. A few light rain or snow showers possible. Highs 40-45. Wind N 10-20 MPH.

TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Lows 30-35. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Cloudy. Spotty sprinkles of rain or flakes of snow possible. Highs 35-40. Wind NE 10-20 MPH gusting over 30 MPH.

THURSDAY: Storm of snow/mix/rain with gusty winds. Low 31. High 40.

FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy. Rain/snow showers. Low 30. High 41.

SATURDAY: Partly sunny. Low 33. High 44.

SUNDAY: Variably cloudy. Low 32. High 43.

10:39PM

A big cool pool in the atmosphere centered just east of New England will spin spokes of moisture into the region Monday and Tuesday, then shuffle eastward as a large storm born of energy heading across the Ohio Valley strengthens and grows along the Mid Atlantic Coast Wednesday and heads eastward through Thursday into the waters off the East Coast, southeast of New England. Though the track of this storm has appeared that it will be too far south to have a strong impact on southern New England, there have been a few signs that it will be close enough, and many signs that it will be large enough to impact the region with a moderate to strong east wind, large ocean swells and big waves along the coast, and at least some threat of precipitation between late Wednesday and early Friday. This system will have a much bigger impact on the Mid Atlantic with some significant and major snow.

Forecast for southeastern New England…

OVERNIGHT: Snow showers taper off, clouds break. Lows upper 20s to middle 30s northwest to southeast. Wind NW to N 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY: Clouds dominate, episodes of snow to rain showers mainly afternoon. Highs upper 30s to lower 40s. Wind N to NW 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. A few snow showers. Lows around 30. Wind N 10-15 MPH with higher gusts.

TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy to partly sunny. A few additional rain showers. Highs 40-45. Wind N to NW 10-15 MPH with higher gusts.

WEDNESDAY: Cloudy. Spotty light rain/mix. Low 33. High 43.

THURSDAY: Cloudy. Chance of snow/mix/rain. Low 30. High 40.

FRIDAY: Partly sunny. Low 30. High 44.

SATURDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 33. High 50.

SUNDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 25. High 41.

11:19AM

Quick forecast update (no changes, just making it current). Full blog and discussion for the coming week will be posted by early to mid evening! Have a great Sunday everybody!

Updated forecast for southeastern New England…

THIS AFTERNOON: Mostly cloudy. Scattered snow showers changing to rain showers. Highs upper 30s to lower 40s. Wind NW to N 5-15 MPH gusting around 20 MPH.

TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Scattered rain showers changing to snow showers. Lows around 30. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY: Mostly cloudy. Scattered snow and rain showers. Highs around 40.  Wind N 10-20 MPH.

TUESDAY: Partly sunny. Isolated rain showers. Low 33. High 44.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of a few rain/snow showers, possibly late-day steadier light mix far southern areas. Low 30. High 41.

THURSDAY: Cloudy. Chance of light rain/mix/snow mainly southern areas. Low 30. High 38.

FRIDAY: Partly sunny. Low 30. High 45.

SATURDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 32. High 50.

5:38PM

No big changes for this discussion. Upper level low pressure dominates New England through early in the week and maintains its influence even as it moves east of the region. This upper low will likely be part of a block that steers a very large late winter storm safely south of New England during the middle of next week. The track of that storm is still in question though, so that is something that will continue to be monitored of course. Looking ahead a bit, it looks like we break out of the chilly/grey pattern at least briefly at the end of next week.

Updated forecast for southeastern New England (southern NH, eastern MA, and RI)…

TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Isolated rain showers early, scattered snow showers overnight. Lows upper 20s to lower 30s. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY: Mostly cloudy. Scattered snow showers changing to rain showers by midday. Highs upper 30s to lower 40s. Wind NW to N 5-15 MPH gusting around 20 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Scattered rain showers changing to snow showers. Lows around 30. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY: Mostly cloudy. Scattered snow and rain showers. Highs around 40.  Wind N 10-20 MPH.

TUESDAY: Partly sunny. Isolated rain showers. Low 33. High 44.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of a few rain/snow showers, possibly late-day steadier light mix far southern areas. Low 30. High 41.

THURSDAY: Cloudy. Chance of light rain/mix/snow mainly southern areas. Low 30. High 38.

FRIDAY: Partly sunny. Low 30. High 45.

SATURDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 32. High 50.