9:27PM

The question remains: Are we getting a reward for last winter, or are we setting ourselves up for payback sometime later? Either or neither, the overall weather pattern for southern New England will continue to be more like late Spring for the upcoming week, and probably beyond. The only real disturbance of any consequence will be passing through the region on Tuesday with some rain shower activity, otherwise mainly dry weather and above to much above normal temperatures will dominate. It even appears, based on reliable guidance, that a very warm and dry pattern will continue into the beginning of next week. We will likely see some 70 degree temperatures being reached either early in the week or toward next week in parts of the region. Will there be an 80 degree reading somewhere? I don’t see it for this week, and I normally do not talk about anything in detail beyond 7 days, but there are some signs that 80 could be approached or reached around March 21, which would make it feel like the first day of summer around the first full day of Spring. The Vernal Equinox occurs on Tuesday March 20 at 1:14AM. But it’s plain to see that the weather is not waiting until then.

A couple of negative aspects of the warm/dry pattern: Lowering water supply which can set up a summer drought if the dry pattern should continue, and of more immediate concern, drying of topsoil is accelerating as the sun angle increases. This increases the risk of brush fires, and some have already been occurring during this week. Look for the fire danger to remain high for at least a couple more weeks. The lack of leaves allows the sun to reach more of the ground, drying it out. This, along with fallen leaves from last season and broken branches and trees from recent storms (Irene, October snow, February 25 wind storm), allows fires to spread more easily. Use care if outside with anything that can ignite fires!

Forecast for eastern MA, southern NH, and RI…

TONIGHT: Clear. Low ranging from the middle 20s inland valleys to upper 30s coast. Wind W under 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Sunny. High 67-72, except cooler in coastal areas where wind passes over water first. Wind WSW around 10 MPH.

MONDAY  NIGHT: Clouding over from west to east. A few rain showers possible very late. Low 50-55. Wind S under 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy with a slight chance of rain showers morning, ending west to east during midday then becoming partly sunny in the afternoon. High 60-65. Wind SW 5-15 MPH shifting to W.

WEDNESDAY: Sunny AM. Sun/cloud mix PM. Low 45. High 62.

THURSDAY: Partly sunny. Low 47. High 60 (except 50 coast).

FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 44. High 67.

SATURDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 51. High 71.

SUNDAY: Partly sunny. Low 50. High 68.

REMINDER: Set clocks ahead 1 hour tonight (Daylight Savings Time begins at 2AM Sunday morning)!

6:22PM

At 5:45PM, the last sunset before 6PM occurred in Boston until October 16 2012. And tomorrow, of course, the sunset will be much later.

Tonight will be cold. Not excessively cold. Normal March kind of cold. But there is going to be very little normal about the temperature pattern coming up during the next 7 to 10 days, which may turn out to be one of the warmest stretches of March weather we have experienced. High pressure ridging will be in control, with only a couple weak disturbances passing by. Temperatures will be running above to much above normal starting Sunday through next week including into next weekend. Temperatures along the coast may be a little more tricky on a few of the days, depending on wind direction. If high pressure to our south is stronger than high pressure to our north, a more southwesterly wind will probably limit ocean winds and the coast will be warmer, of course with the exception of coastal areas that face south and southwest (South Coast, RI, Cape Cod). If high pressure to the north is stronger, we may see an onshore flow for a day or two, making east and north facing coastal areas much cooler. We will see how that plays out as the week goes on.

Forecast for eastern MA, RI, and southern NH…

TONIGHT: Variably cloudy. Low from the lower 20s inland valleys to lower 30s coast. Wind SE-S under 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. High 55-60. Wind S-SW 10-15 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Low 40-45. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY: Mostly sunny. High 66-71. Wind SW 10-20 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Low 50-55. Wind SW 10-15 MPH.

TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy with a chance of rain showers in the morning. Partly cloudy in the afternoon. High 63-68. Wind SW 10-15 MPH shifting to W.

WEDNESDAY: Partly sunny. Low 48. High 62.

THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy. Low 46. High 59.

FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 48. High 66.

SATURDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 51. High 71.

11:40AM

With the coastal snow burst now just about a done deal, except for lingering snow over Cape Cod late Saturday morning, here is an updated eastern MA, RI, and southern NH forecast… But first a little about snow amounts. Clearly not an easy forecast to make, given the quick development, small size, and southward movement of a low pressure center just off the NH/MA coast during the early morning hours. When I saw the webcam at Hampton Beach NH at 4AM and saw heavy snow falling with what looked like at least 2 inches on the ground, I knew that somebody was going to be in a local jackpot area of significance. Stratham, NH, appears to be the winner, with 8.5 inches. But amounts of 4+ inches did take place in other locations, including parts of Cape Ann MA. Up to a few inches were reported on the South Shore, south of Boston, where I did not expected that much to fall. Here in Woburn, we had a brief coating on the unpaved surfaces, which is now long gone. Even areas that got significant snow will not hold onto it for much more than a day, as another March warm-up is on the way…

THIS AFTERNOON: Partly to mostly sunny. High 35-40. Wind N to NW 10-20 MPH.

TONIGHT: Increasing clouds. Low 24-29 early then rising into the 30s. Wind variable shifting to SW around 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Clouds early, then mostly sunny. High 50-55. Wind SW 10-20 MPH.

MONDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 41. High 67.

TUESDAY: Partly sunny. Low 47. High 64.

WEDNESDAY: Partly sunny. Low 38. High 58.

THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy. Low 38. High 52.

FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 35. High 55.

6:41PM

If you blink you may miss it, but winter weather is going to make a short visit tonight and early Saturday in the form of snow showers, with some accumulation in eastern MA and southern NH. Cold air, moving in during this evening, will stick around through early Sunday morning. The snow will be produced by the combination of a strong disturbance and a cold front passing through southern New England. The disturbance will ignite a low pressure area just offshore Saturday morning which may enhance snowfall in northeastern MA and southeastern NH, especially near the coast, where the most snowfall is expected. This will not be a major snowfall by any stretch, but up to a few inches may occur, and that will be enough to have to push off walks and driveways. Roads may see some slushy accumulation and may be briefly snowcovered and slick, but existing warm ground will not allow this to last very long.

By the time we get to Sunday and Monday, a new warm-up will be underway, and the mild pattern will last for much of next week, with temperatures closer to the coast being determined by the wind direction, as winds will be variable and at times off the ocean as we get to the middle of next week.

Forecast for southern NH, eastern MA, and RI…

TONIGHT: Clouds advance. Snow showers developing after 8PM from west to east, becoming more numerous at times. These may be mixed with rain at the start near the coast and south of Boston especially toward RI. Late night low 24-29. Wind W up to 10 MPH shifting to NW with higher gusts at times.

SATURDAY: Mostly cloudy to partly sunny through midday with snow showers, most numerous in northeastern MA and southeastern NH  including coastal areas to the immediate Boston area. Snow accumulation from brief slushy coatings around the MA/RI border and southeastern MA to 1/2 to 2 inches elsewhere except locally up to 3 inches  in parts of coastal northeastern MA and southeastern NH. Partly to mostly sunny in the afternoon. High 35-40. Wind shifting to NE 10-20 MPH in the morning then back to NW in the afternoon.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Increasing clouds. Low 24-29 early then rising into the 30s. Wind variable shifting to SW around 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Clouds early, then mostly sunny. High 50-55. Wind SW 10-20 MPH.

MONDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 41. High 67.

TUESDAY: Partly sunny. Low 47. High 64.

WEDNESDAY: Partly sunny. Low 38. High 58.

THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy. Low 38. High 52.

FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 35. High 55.

5:03PM

Though the roller-coaster temperature pattern will continue, the overall pattern is to be warmer than normal for some time. Only weak disturbances marking air mass changes will pass by from time to time.

Eastern MA, RI, southern NH forecast…

TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Rain showers likely. Low 40-45. Wind SW 15-25 MPH with stronger gusts, shifting to W.

FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. High 45-50. Wind W 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Partly to mostly cloudy. Scattered snow showers from 10PM on. Low 22-27. Wind shifting to NW 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.

SATURDAY: Partly to mostly sunny. High 35-40. Wind NW 10-20 MPH.

SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 20. High 53.

MONDAY: Partly sunny. Low 40. High 60.

TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 47. High 70.

WEDNESDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 35. High 55.

THURSDAY: Partly sunny. Low 38. High 62.

10:36PM

Many people will like what they experienced today better than they will like tomorrow, because of tomorrow’s wind. I’m having my doubts about Boston reaching 65 let alone challenging the record of 67. An airmass becoming more moist at lower levels, which is harder to warm, and an earlier increase of clouds, will probably put the brakes on a temperature rise during the early to mid afternoon.

A cold front will cross southern New England Thursday night with rain showers. This will introduce cooler and drier air for Friday, though a secondary front may produce a few rain and snow showers in isolated locations late Friday, and slightly colder air will follow this for Saturday, before a new warm-up gets underway on Sunday.

The next frontal system is due on Monday with a chance of rain showers at that time. I’m not sure of the timing of this front this far out, so temperature forecasts for Monday are with low confidence.

Eastern MA, RI, and southern NH forecast…

TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. Low 45-50. Wind SW around 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Partly sunny to mostly cloudy. Chance of rain showers late in the afternoon. High 61-66. Wind SW 10-20 MPH increasing to 15-30 MPH with gusts 35-40 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Rain showers ending by midnight. Low 35-40. Wind W 10-20 MPH.

FRIDAY: Mostly sunny to partly cloudy. An isolated rain or snow shower possible late day. High 45-50. Wind W 10-20 MPH.

SATURDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 26. High 40.

SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 28. High 52.

MONDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of rain showers. Low 39. High 50.

TUESDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 33. High 47.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of rain showers. Low 39. High 50.

3:56PM

The upswing is coming. High pressure sliding offshore will sent a southwest wind in during midweek with a significant warm-up. I do not think this will turn into record warmth at Boston. The record highs are 69 for Wednesday and 67 for Thursday and I believe Boston will fall well short on Wednesday (topping out in the 50s) and a few degrees shy on Thursday. Either way, it will be enjoyable March warmth other than a gusty wind to deal with at times. A cold front will move through Thursday night with rain showers, sending cooler air in for the end of the week. Temperatures rebound again by Sunday before the next front sends them back down a touch on Monday of next week. There are no major late-season winter storms in sight.

Eastern MA, RI, southern NH forecast…

TONIGHT: Some clouds cross the sky from west to east but move out again around dawn. Low from the upper 10s valley areas to upper 20s coast. Wind variable to S up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. High 50-55. Wind SW 10-20 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Low 33-38. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY: Partly cloudy. High 60-65. Wind SW 10-20 MPH gusting to 30 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Scattered rain showers. Low 45-50. Wind SW 10-15 MPH shifting to W.

FRIDAY: Partly cloudy. High 45-50. Wind W 10-15 MPH.

SATURDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 28. High 44.

SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 28. High 55.

MONDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of rain showers. Low 38. High 49.

TUESDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 29. High 47.

8:32PM

Temperature swings continue to be the theme this week. No major changes from last night’s discussion,  other than a slightly faster timing on things later in the week.

Forecast for eastern MA, RI, southern NH…

TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Low from near 10 inland valleys to the lower 20s along the coast. Wind N around 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. High 35-40. Wind NW 10-15 MPH.

TUESDAY  NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Low 20-25 inland valleys, 25-30 elsewhere. Wind diminishing to calm.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. High 51-56. Wind SW 10-20 MPH.

THURSDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 44. High 66.

FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy. Rain showers. Low 40. High 50.

SATURDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 35. High 45.

SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 35. High 55.

4:51PM

As was mentioned yesterday, the week ahead will not feature a great deal of weather, in terms of storminess, but will be remembered for its swings in temperature.

A cold front will move through southern New England tonight, setting us up for a couple chilly days to start the new week Monday and Tuesday. Monday will feature bright sun but it may have to share the sky with some fair weather clouds.  A low pressure wave exiting the Mid Atlantic Coast will pass well east of New England Monday night and early Tuesday. Warm air will already be on the return above us later Tuesday, and this may result in some increase in high to mid level cloud cover during the day.

By midweek (Wednesday-Thursday) high pressure moving offshore will create a warmer southwesterly wind flow and temperatures will respond quickly. Expect many areas to be over 50 Wednesday and over 60 Thursday, along with fair weather!

A cold front and wave of low pressure will bring unsettled weather on Friday, then a drier, cooler weekend is expected. There are some questions as to how quickly the front late in the week will move offshore, so that Saturday’s forecast is somewhat uncertain. Going with the drier scenario for now.

Also, next weekend is the weekend to change the clocks and move them forward one hour on Saturday night (or 2AM Sunday morning, which becomes 3AM, as Daylight Savings Time begins).

Forecast for Boston area, eastern MA, southern NH, and RI…

TONIGHT: Mostly to partly cloudy. Low 25-30. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY: Mostly to partly sunny. High 32-37. Wind NW 10-20 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Low from the middle 10s inland valleys where winds are lightest to the upper 20s immediate coast. Wind NW 10-15 MPH.

TUESDAY: Sunshine then clouds. High 35-40. Wind NW 10-20 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny.  Low 31. High 56.

THURSDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 43. High 63.

FRIDAY: Cloudy. Chance of rain showers. Low 44. High 50

SATURDAY: Variably cloudy. Low 31. High 46.

SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 22. High 44.

4:59PM

The theme of the next 7 days will be temperature swings: First down, then up, then down again. A frontal system moving offshore will slow down and develop a low pressure wave on it, but this will stay offshore through Sunday. A secondary cold front will cross New England Sunday night with scattered snow showers, and yet another wave of low pressure will exit the Mid Atlantic Coast by Tuesday, passing well east of New England. This series of events will serve to bring colder air in and reinforce it through Tuesday. This will not be a significant cold outbreak, just rather chilly. But it will not last too long, for as high pressure builds offshore by midweek, a return flow of southwesterly winds will boost temperatures up big time with 50+ expected Wednesday and 60+ for Thursday. A cold front crossing the region Friday will bring some rain showers, then return temperatures to the chilly side of things by the start of next weekend.

Forecast for RI, eastern MA, southern NH…

TONIGHT: Clouds return late. Low from the upper 20s rural areas to mid 30s urban centers and coast. Wind SW around 10 MPH shifting to W.

SUNDAY: Mostly cloudy to partly sunny. High from the upper 30s across the hills NW of Boston to 40-45 elsewhere. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Scattered snow showers. Low 25-30. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY: Mostly sunny. High 35-40. Wind NW 10-20 MPH.

TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 18. High 36.

WEDNESDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 29. High 53.

THURSDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 39. High 62.

FRIDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of rain showers. Low 42. High 55.

SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 29. High 38.

4:34PM

Although we are not going to be seeing any major snow and damaging storms in the next several days, we will be seeing some big swings in weather and temperature.

After our little bout with winter, especially inland and higher elevations, the cold air and clouds remained locked in during the day Friday, but it won’t really get any colder tonight. In fact it will go the other way, with a rising temperature as a southerly wind develops ahead of a deepening low pressure area that will pass northwest of southern New England on Saturday. Precipitation will arrive early enough so that some snow/sleet/freezing rain may lead things off later tonight, especially around and outside of Route 495 in areas mostly north of the Mass Turnpike. So conditions in these areas may become slippery all over again for a few hours tonight before the warm air takes over and we just see rain. Elsewhere, rain will move in. And bands of rain will cross the region through Saturday morning. A few of these may have embedded heavier showers of rain with possible thunder. This system looks as if it will be moving fast enough so that the rain cuts off in the early afternoon from west to east, clouds break, and even some sun may appear before it sets. Very mild air will be in place by this time, erasing much of the snow that fell.

An upper trough and a series of cold fronts will cross the region Sunday and Monday, with a trend to colder weather, some rain showers and eventually snow showers, though much of this time will be precipitation-free.

High pressure will build across the  East Coast then offshore Tuesday through the middle of next week, with a chilly Tuesday followed by a major warm-up during the middle of next week (always said with not total confidence given the time of year).

Forecast for eastern MA, southern NH, and RI..

TONIGHT: Cloudy. Areas of fog. Precipitation developing from southwest to northeast after 9PM, in the form of rain in most areas except starting as snow and sleet anywhere outside of Route 95 with maybe a mix just inside 95, then snow/sleet/freezing rain continuing for a while especially well north and west of Boston for up to a few hours before turning to rain. Temperature starting out in the upper 20s to middle 30s then rising to the upper 30s to lower 40s during the night, coolest northwest to mildest southeast of Boston. Wind light variable, becoming S increasing to 10-15 MPH.

SATURDAY: Cloudy through early afternoon with numerous rain showers and possible thunderstorms, ending west to east. Breaking clouds and some sun possible mid to late afternoon. High 50-55. Wind S 10-20 MPH shifting to W.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Low 30-35. Wind W 10-15 MPH.

SUNDAY: Partly to mostly cloudy. Slight chance of rain showers in the afternoon. High 41-46. Wind W 10-20 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Mostly to partly cloudy. Low 25-30. Wind WNW 10-15 MPH.

MONDAY: Sunny start and finish, clouds in the middle part of the day with a few passing snow showers possible. High 35-40. Wind NW 10-20 MPH.

TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 17. High 38.

WEDNESDAY: Partly sunny. Low 28. High 54.

THURSDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 39. High 62.

FRIDAY: AM rain showers. Low 40. High 50.

7:55PM

Now that the disorganized winterish sort of event is winding down as snow in most places, and rather slowly at that, the only lasting impact from it will be tonight’s freeze-up as temperatures sit in the 20s in most locations (bit milder coast and southeastern MA for a while).

Not far behind this departing system is the next low pressure area, but like many others this season, this one has a destination that brings it on a track north of southern New England, putting us on the warm side. Only some brief snow/sleet may occur Friday night at the start of the precipitation from a bit of cold air hanging on. But eventually this becomes a numerous rain shower producer, but moves through rather quickly, fast enough so that the sun may even make an appearance before Saturday is over! Some lingering upper level low pressure troughing in the region means that lots of clouds will return on Sunday and probably linger on Monday as well, with a trend to chilly temperatures for a short time.

As we reach the middle of next week, it looks like a significant warm-up will take place, along with fair weather – a taste of spring (not that far different from what much of the winter was like).

Forecast for eastern MA, RI, and southern NH…

TONIGHT: Cloudy. Snow tapering off and ending from west to east with additional accumulation of less than 1 inch except locally just over 1 inch interior southeastern MA. Low 22-27. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Cloudy to partly sunny. High 35-40. Wind N around 10 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. A period of rain may begin as sleet and even wet snow especially northwest of Boston. Numerous rain showers all areas after midnight. Low 30-35 early then temperature rising back toward 40. Wind E 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY: Cloudy with rain showers in the morning. Breaking clouds in the afternoon. High 45-50. Wind E-SE 5-15 MPH in the morning, shifting to W 10-20 MPH in the afternoon.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Low 30-35. Wind W 10-15 MPH.

SUNDAY: Partly to mostly cloudy. Slight chance of light rain showers in the afternoon. High 40-45. Wind W 5-15 MPH shifting to NW.

MONDAY: Mostly cloudy. Low 25. High 35.

TUESDAY: Partly sunny. Low 15. High 40.

WEDNESDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 25. High 50.

THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 35. High 60.

9:37PM

I still hesitate to call this a storm, just because it comes in some many parts and pieces for this area. The advance first batch, caused mainly by warm air trying to move in from the southwest and riding up and over a bank of cold air pressing down from eastern Canada, is still with us, and will be in place for most of the night. But the snow will be varying in its intensity, and as warmer air starts to come in more above us, and milder surface air floods into coastal areas on an easterly wind, we’ll start to see some mixing with sleet and rain become a factor, especially within several miles of the shoreline and over far southern New England, as the night goes on, as well as into the day tomorrow.

What many are calling part 2 of the storm is a batch of showers and thunderstorms moving across Pennsylvania this evening, but that will mainly miss to the south. We do have to watch other showers and thunderstorms firing up to the north west and north of this region. The moisture from these may play a role in trying to redevelop precipitation in the belt over southern New England overnight and into Thursday. The final part of this long-duration event will come later on Thursday, as the upper level low pressure area crosses southern and central New England. This may produce some pockets of moderate to even briefly heavy snow, but it remains to be seen how widespread this will be and how much impact it will have.

Commutes…

Minimal impact with just wet roads along the coast and south of Boston for the Thursday morning commute. Minor to moderate impact further inland and especially higher elevations where a few periods of heavier snow could slick up roads.

The Thursday evening commute will also be impacted but again probably not in a widespread significant fashion. Though it will be colder and most areas that are precipitating are snowing, roads will have been treated and will likely be wet in most areas. Just periods of heavier snow showers may slick roads up anywhere in the region.

Friday morning commute should see no major impact unless some black ice has formed on untreated surfaces, especially walkways and driveways.

Remember that total snowfall accumulation can be deceiving in this type of event, as it is a prolonged event under marginal temperature conditions. Settling and melting takes place during the event. Example: An area that receives 6 inches of snow for the entire event will never have 6 inches on the ground.

Updated forecast for eastern MA, southern NH, and RI…

REMAINDER OF TONIGHT: Periods of snow, with sleet/rain along the coast, trying to push inland slightly, and also further south, trying to work north. Temperatures holding 30-35 most areas, coolest inland higher elevations, some upper 30s near the shore. Wind E increasing to 10-20 MPH.

THURSDAY: Periods of snow, except rain/mix to snow in areas to the south and east. High 35-40 early, then cooling back toward 30. Wind E-NE 10-20 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Snow ending. Mostly cloudy. Low 23-28. Watch for some icy spots. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

Total snow accumulation ranging from 1-3 inches coastal areas to 4-8 inches most inland areas, with some locally heavier amounts possible in a few higher elevations. (See above about snow-on-ground vs. accumulation forecast.)

FRIDAY: Cloudy. High 40-45. Wind NE 5-10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Cloudy. Rain showers likely. Low 38. High 54.

SUNDAY: Mostly cloudy. Low 34. High 46.

MONDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 27. High 41.

TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Low 30. High 46.

WEDNESDAY: Partly sunny. Low 39. High 56.

6:25PM

Ok, so the headline mentions Boston, but what about elsewhere? Patience is all I ask… 🙂

Here is the setup: High pressure to the north, with a cold air supply. Low pressure to the south, moving eastward in ripples or waves. These, along with some overrunning of warmer air over the top of the colder air, will produce periods of precipitation from mid or late afternoon Wednesday through much of Thursday. I say precipitation, because it won’t all be in the form of snow. Much of it will be, in parts of the region, and in some areas it may stay all snow (northern Worcester  County hills, southwestern NH). Elsewhere, enough warm air should work in aloft to bring some mixing. This will also become an issue when the precipitation intensity is lighter. In addition, a wind turning out of the east will bring modified air in off the ocean, which is running 3 to 5 degrees above normal for this time of year. So this drawn-out event will never really be that intense. The greatest chance for snow to accumulate in the Boston area will be roughly during the window of 8PM Wednesday to about dawn on Thursday, but this will depend on intensity of snowfall and the position of the line of mix/rain.

Once this mess exits Thursday night, clouds will probably hang tough on Friday, with the next storm due to arrive on Saturday. The track of this one, well north and west of southern England, spells mild temperatures and rain.

Expected snow accumulation from the entire event: Coating to around 1 inch immediate shore, 1-3 inches away from the coast to around Route 495, 3-6 inches outside Route 495, with greater than 6 inches in the hills of Worcester County and southern NH.

Forecast for eastern MA, RI, southern NH…

TONIGHT: Increasing clouds. Low 24-29. Wind light NE.

WEDNESDAY: Cloudy. Periods of light snow possible in southern NH and extreme northern MA early afternoon but most snow holding off and advancing west to east across the region mid to late afternoon. High from near freezing in the hills well NW of Boston to near 40 along the coast. Wind NE to E increasing to around 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Overcast. Snow, except a changeover line of sleet/rain working northward toward the Mass Pike, may push north of the Pike later at night and may approach the NH border, especially in northeastern MA. Precipitation intensity will vary from light to moderate. Temperatures holding around 30 in the hills well NW of Boston to near 40 along the shore. Wind E increasing to 10-20 MPH.

THURSDAY: Overcast. Periods of snow/mix well northwest of Boston, rain/mix elsewhere, trending to turn back to lighter snow or snow showers from NW to SE later in the day. High ranging from around 33 Worcester Hills to the lower 40s along the coast. Wind E 10-20 MPH, shifting to N late.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Chance of snow showers. Watch for some freezing of untreated surfaces. Low 27-32. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Cloudy. High 40-45. Wind variable around 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Rain. Low 35. High 50.

SUNDAY: Cloudy. Low 34. High 45.

MONDAY: Sunny. Low 28. High 43.

TUESDAY: Cloudy. Low 31. High 44.

Full discussion this afternoon…

Updated forecast for eastern MA, RI, and southern NH…

TODAY: Mostly sunny. High 40-45. Wind NW 10-20 MPH.

TONIGHT: Increasing clouds. Low 24-29. Wind light N.

WEDNESDAY: Cloudy. Snow late. High 35-40. Wind light NE.

THURSDAY: Mix/snow showers. Low 30. High 40.

FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy. Low 30. High 44.

SATURDAY: Chance of rain. Low 38. High 50.

SUNDAY: Clearing. Low 32. High 42.