DAYS 1-5 (FEBRUARY 18-22)

Today through tonight low pressure takes a track eastward while passing to our north. Its warm front sends a batch of high / mid level clouds through this morning. Some of you may have seen a nice sunrise if you were up early for it, but now we’ll get some limiting of the sun for a few hours this morning as that front comes by, otherwise uneventfully. While technically we’ll be in the “warm sector” of this passing low, it’s not going to be a warm day. Yes you may notice now as we head through mid February that an increasing sun angle makes the sun feel warmer, but temperatures today still run near to a little below normal, made to feel colder still by a gusty wind. Previously, I spoke of the chance of passing snow showers in northern portions of the WHW forecast area today, but during the day these are not very likely. If we are to see any, it would be with the approach and passage of the low’s cold front this evening / tonight as the system moves down the St. Lawrence Valley into southeastern Canada. Moisture is less available than it was for the trough that produced yesterday’s snow showers/squalls, so I’m not expecting much, just a few spotty light snow showers at most. Monday, behind the front and ahead of approaching high pressure, we will experience sun and passing clouds, an active breeze, and dry weather. High pressure builds overhead Tuesday and early Wednesday with lots of sun and a seasonably chilly day Tuesday, and a cold night following that with a clear sky / calm wind combination. During Wednesday as the high center slips off to the east, and we start a warming process, we’ll see some cloudiness return to limit the sun, a little more wind, but a milder afternoon after that cold start. This milder regime will continue Thursday as we start to see more cloudiness still ahead of an approaching low pressure area and frontal system, which can bring precipitation to us by Thursday evening or night. A larger storm at that time will be located well offshore, not close enough to impact the region.

TODAY: Intervals of clouds and sun with the most limited sun this morning and again later in the day and the most sun during the midday hours. Highs 30-37. Wind SW 10-20 MPH with gusts around 30 MPH except 20-30 MPH with gusts above 30 MPH along the South Coast.

TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. A brief snow shower may occur southern NH / northern MA. Lows 22-29. Wind shifting to NW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.

MONDAY: Sun and passing clouds. Highs 32-39. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts possible.

MONDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 17-24. Wind NW diminishing to under 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 33-40. Wind W to variable up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 15-22. Wind calm.

WEDNESDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 38-45. Wind S up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Lows 30-37. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy. Mix/rain potential by evening or night. Highs 40-47. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (FEBRUARY 23-27)

Low pressure brings unsettled weather to start the period, and another smaller system may impact the region with a period of precipitation sometime over the February 24-25 weekend, with yet another system potentially approaching the region at the end of the period. None of these look like “big events” at this time but will monitor of course as guidance out that far is wishy-washy, like Charlie Brown. 😉

DAYS 11-15 (FEBRUARY 28 – MARCH 3)

Pattern may support a couple unsettled weather systems or even one more prolonged period of unsettled weather during this time frame. Continued lower than average confidence even for this time period’s typical uncertainty. Temperatures near to slightly above normal.

DAYS 1-5 (FEBRUARY 17-21)

It’s a 3-day weekend for many, and it will be cold and generally on the quiet side, despite 2 separate low pressure areas having some impact on the region. The first slides by to our south today but some of its snowfall gets up into southern New England – a light event in general with generally 1 to 2 inches for the South Coast and dustings/coatings northward toward I-90, and generally nothing more than flakes in the air from that system north of there. However as this starts to pull away, at unstable atmosphere from a low pressure trough swinging through from the west can trigger snow showers, especially north of I-90, and these can put down scattered coatings of snow during this afternoon to very early evening before they move away. Sunday, another low pressure area will move rapidly eastward, passing across northern New England. This may also cause a few snow showers during Sunday afternoon, most of which would occur north of I-90 again. Other than localized dustings which get blown around by a gusty wind, I’m not expecting much of any accumulation from Sunday’s snow showers. Presidents Day will feature more sunshine but still breezy conditions as high pressure approaches from the west. This high will move over the region on Tuesday which will be a bright and tranquil winter day. It then shifts eastward on Wednesday, which will also feature fair weather but with milder air after a cold start.

TODAY: Overcast through early afternoon with periods of snow mainly near and south of I-90 with most accumulation of 1 or 2 inches along the South Coast and a slight chance of up to 3 inches over Martha’s Vineyard or Nantucket. Breaking/thinning clouds mainly to the north and west later, but additional developing instability clouds mainly north of I-90 with scattered snow showers during the afternoon – some producing minor accumulations. Highs 30-37. Wind W to variable up to 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Partly cloudy to mostly clear. Lows 13-20. Wind variable to W up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Partly cloudy. A passing snow shower possible. Highs 30-37. Wind W 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 12-19. Wind NW 10-20 MPH with higher gusts in the evening. Wind chill below 10 in the evening.

MONDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 27-34. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, diminishing.

MONDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 15-22. Wind W under 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 33-40. Wind W to variable up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 17-24. Wind calm.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 38-45. Wind S up to 10 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (FEBRUARY 22-26)

One storm offshore should keep its precipitation over the ocean while a weaker system from the west brings clouds and a light precipitation chance on February 22. One or two more systems can bring rain/mix/snow (details TBD) to the region during the February 24-26 window. Temperatures start out somewhat above normal then trend slightly colder.

DAYS 11-15 (FEBRUARY 27 – MARCH 2)

Pattern may support a couple unsettled weather systems or even one more prolonged period of unsettled weather during this time frame. Low confidence at this point. Temperatures near to slightly above normal for the period.

DAYS 1-5 (FEBRUARY 16-20)

We finally have a pattern that brings the feel of winter for a string of days. Last night’s minor snowfall, while quick-hitting and not dropping much accumulation (generally a coating to just over 1 inch), leaves behind some icy areas where a partial melt and then re-freeze took place. Be aware of that if going outside today. In addition, a couple plumes of snow showers are about the region (one in southwestern and south central NH and another in central MA as of sunrise). These will dawdle about the region for a little while and will lower visibility and cause some additional minor snowfall accumulation where they are, but they should dissipate later on. Otherwise, look for a mainly dry but windy and cold day for the region in the wake of departing low pressure. Wind slackens later today and settles down tonight as a sliver of high pressure moves across the region.

The weather during the upcoming 3-day weekend will be governed by a trio of weather systems. Saturday, low pressure races eastward and tracks just south of New England, but far enough south that a shield of snow accompanying it only dusts areas south of I-90 with a brief period of light snow, while no more than a few flakes visit areas to the north. However, areas that largely miss out on the synoptic snow from the passing low to the south do stand the chance of seeing a passing snow shower from an upper level trough late in the day Saturday. Another low pressure area tracks quickly eastward across northern New England on Sunday, and with cold air in place this can bring a few snow showers to areas mainly north of I-90. The wind picks back up again on Sunday with the passage of that system, but not to the levels we will see during today. Finally, high pressure moves into the region for the Monday holiday with dry, more tranquil, but still chilly weather, which will also last through Tuesday.

TODAY: Sun/cloud mix. Snow showers possible especially west of I-495 early to mid morning with briefly low visibility and small accumulation possible. Highs 33-40. Wind NW 15-25 MPH, gusts as high as 35-45 MPH, strongest through early afternoon with a gradual diminishment thereafter.

TONIGHT: A few passing low clouds evening departing to the east. Increasing high clouds overnight. Lows 20-27. Wind W diminishing to under 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Overcast through mid afternoon – thickest to the south of I-90 where a period of light snow can result in a minor accumulation, and thinner to the north where the sun may be seen through it but a few snowflakes can fall. A clearing trend begins toward the end of the day. Highs 30-37. Wind W to variable up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy to mostly clear. Lows 13-20. Wind variable to W up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Partly cloudy. A passing snow shower possible. Highs 30-37. Wind W 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 12-19. Wind NW 10-20 MPH with higher gusts in the evening. Wind chill below 10 in the evening.

MONDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 27-34. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, diminishing.

MONDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 15-22. Wind W under 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 33-40. Wind W to variable up to 10 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (FEBRUARY 21-25)

Disturbances around February 22 and 24 bring what look like fairly minor precipitation threat, otherwise a mostly dry weather pattern is anticipated. Temperatures start out somewhat above normal then trend slightly colder.

DAYS 11-15 (FEBRUARY 26 – MARCH 1)

One or two additional unsettled weather threats take place this period, but far too soon to try to determine the magnitude and details of any threats. Temperatures near to slightly above normal for the period but with day-to-day variability.

DAYS 1-5 (FEBRUARY 15-19)

Two low pressure systems will impact our region during the next 5 days. The first one approaches later today and passes through tonight. It’s a small, fast-moving one but has a decent slug of moisture with it. The low pressure area is destined to pass just to our north, but its warm front will generate a batch of accumulating snow this evening. It will be a short-lived event, not dropping too much snow, but enough to cause slippery travel on untreated surfaces. Once the initial band goes by, a few additional snow showers can occur until a cold front drops through the region early on Friday morning. The balance of Friday will be dry but quite windy and on the cold side. The cold air will keep hold of the region as we get into the holiday weekend. Another small and fast-moving low pressure area will move through the region Saturday. Currently the expectation is that the low center will pass just to our south, with a period of two of mostly light snowfall expected. The snow coverage and any accumulation from this system will come into focus over the next couple days. Another disturbance may bring a snow shower on Sunday, reinforcing the cold air through Monday, when dry weather is expected.

TODAY: Sun followed by clouds. Highs 31-38. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Cloudy with snow except some mix/rain South Coast. Snow accumulation generally 1/2 to 2 inches – a few under 1/2 inch amounts possible mainly South Coast, and a few over 2 inch amounts possible mainly north of Route 2. Lows 26-33. Wind shifting to S 5-15 MPH then back to W.

FRIDAY: Any early snow showers ending with a sun/cloud mix. Highs 33-40. Wind W increasing to 15-25 MPH with gusts above 30 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 21-28. Wind W 10-20 MPH with higher gusts in the evening, diminishing overnight.

SATURDAY: Cloudy. Periods of light snow likely. Highs 28-35. Wind variable to NE up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy with any light snow ending in the evening. Partly cloudy overnight. Lows 13-20. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY: Partly cloudy. A passing snow shower possible. Highs 30-37. Wind NW 10-20 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 12-19. Wind NW 10-20 MPH. Wind chill below 10.

MONDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 27-34. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

DAYS 6-10 (FEBRUARY 20-24)

Snow/rain shower chance about February 22 and snow/mix/rain chance around February 24. Temperatures quite variable during this period with both above normal and below normal days – details worked out later.

DAYS 11-15 (FEBRUARY 25-29)

One or two additional unsettled weather threats during the last several days of February. Temperatures near to slightly above normal for the period but with day-to-day variability.

DAYS 1-5 (FEBRUARY 14-18)

A cold westerly air flow will chill us off today. A small low pressure system packing a little punch will approach Thursday and bring a minor snowfall to the region as it passes through Thursday night and early Friday. A follow-up system will bring a minor snow chance on Saturday and another disturbance behind that brings the chance of a snow shower on Sunday with continued cold weather.

TODAY: Sun and passing clouds. Highs 28-35. Wind NW 10-20 MPH. Wind chill near to below 20 at times.

TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 13-20. Wind NW 5-15 MPH. Wind chill below 10.

THURSDAY: Sun followed by clouds. Highs 31-38. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Cloudy with snow except some mix/rain South Coast. Snow accumulation under 1 inch South coast, 1 to 3 inches elsewhere, greatest chance of greater than 2 inches north of the Route 2 corridor. Lows 26-33. Wind variable 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Any early snow showers ending with a sun/cloud mix. Highs 33-40. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 21-28. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY: Mostly cloudy. Snow showers likely. Highs 28-35. Wind variable 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 13-20. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY: Partly cloudy. A passing snow shower possible. Highs 30-37. Wind NW 10-20 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (FEBRUARY 19-23)

Generally dry but cold weather expected February 19 through 23 but can be interrupted by a brief snow event about February 22.

DAYS 11-15 (FEBRUARY 24-28)

One or two additional winter weather threats during the late part of February. Temperatures near to below normal.

DAYS 1-5 (FEBRUARY 13-17)

A lot of forecasts had to be adjusted in short order due to a rare mass poor modeling of an event that was literally 24 hours from its beginning. Not something we often see, and it will usually catch everybody off guard in the age of technology-infused forecasting. That’s why phases like “guidance not gospel” and “meteorology not modelology” are important to remember, but even knowing that sometimes isn’t going to save your well-thought-out forecast from taking a hit. This is pretty much one of those cases. That said, we still do get hit by a winter storm today. It’s just not as big a hit and not as far to the north as previously prognosticated. The storm responsible for today’s snow (which still starts as rain in some areas) is going to track about 50 miles further south and intensify a little less than anticipated about 24 hours ago, so a significant forecast adjustment will be made regarding snow amounts, which you will see in the detailed forecast that appears below. After the low pressure area passes our region today and moves seaward tonight, the rest of the forecast is generally the same in terms of timing of systems and overall weather expected. A cold front may bring a snow shower early Wednesday. A small and quick-moving low pressure area will bring a shot of snow (some mix/rain South Coast) Thursday night / early Friday, and if there’s one change, this one looks a little more widespread in coverage than it did previously. The follow-up system for Friday night and early Saturday looks a little less impactful, with this one more likely to produce just snow showers. Basically those two systems look opposite to 24 hours ago.

TODAY: Overcast. Snow, likely starts as rain near and east of I-95 before changing to snow. Snow starts to taper off and end from west to east later in the day to early evening. Expected snow accumulations 1-3 inches Nantucket and Martha’s Vineyard, 3-6 Cape Cod and immediate South Coast of MA/RI/CT, 6-9 inches everywhere else south of I-90, 3-6 inches I-90 from central MA to the North Shore of Boston, 1-3 inches northeastern MA and southern NH, around 1 inch southwestern NH and far north central MA. Temperatures steady 30-37 through midday, falling into the 20s by evening. Wind NE increasing to 10-20 MPH inland and 15-30 MPH coast, higher gusts likely especially MA South Shore through Cape Cod and Islands, over 40 MPH at times in those areas.

TONIGHT: Clearing. Lows 15-22. Wind NW 10-20 MPH. Wind chill below 10.

WEDNESDAY: Sun and passing clouds. Chance of snow showers in the morning. Highs 28-35. Wind NW 10-20 MPH. Wind chill near to below 20 at times.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 13-20. Wind NW 5-15 MPH. Wind chill below 10.

THURSDAY: Sun followed by clouds. Highs 31-38. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Cloudy with snow except some mix/rain South Coast. Up to an inch or two of snow may accumulate mainly away from the South Coast. Lows 27-34. Wind variable 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Any early snow showers ending with a sun/cloud mix. Highs 33-40. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Chance of snow showers overnight. Lows 21-28. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of snow showers in the morning. Highs 28-35. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

DAYS 6-10 (FEBRUARY 18-22)

A disturbance brings scattered snow showers to the region February 18. Generally dry but cold weather expected February 19 through 21. Another shot at snow to end the period.

DAYS 11-15 (FEBRUARY 23-27)

Dry through mid period, and another storm threat later in the period. Temperatures near to below normal.

DAYS 1-5 (FEBRUARY 12-16)

A winter storm is on the way, but not today. Today we’ll have sun that will fade behind increasing clouds later today in advance of the storm system, so commuting to and front work and school today, even this evening, will be no issue. But things change notably by Tuesday morning when a shield of precipitation arrives and traverses the region during the course of the day. The storm system responsible for this upcoming event is currently in the form of a low pressure area moving into the Tennessee Valley and as it reaches the Appalachians, it will spawn a new low in the Delmarva region, which will then track east northeastward passing just southeast of New England by later Tuesday. Temperatures will be marginal enough that the precipitation can start as rain from about the Providence RI to Plymouth MA area eastward through Cape Cod, but most of these areas will go over to snow fairly quickly during the morning – though it will take longer on Outer Cod and Nantucket to do so. Elsewhere, it’s just a straight snow event. But it doesn’t last long, and it’s already pulling eastward and out of the region by late afternoon and gone by evening. The snowfall amounts that will appear below in the detailed forecast will reflect a tiny tick southward in the heaviest snow amounts, but there are no big changes other than to trim a little off the higher amounts in southern NH and north central MA. Behind Tuesday’s event, we can expect cold February weather heading through the remainder of the week. A cold front passing by Wednesday morning or midday may bring a few snow showers with it, and a small, fast-moving low pressure area will bring a quick shot of accumulating snow Thursday night and early Friday.

TODAY: Increasing high clouds. Highs 40-47. Wind N up to 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Thickening overcast. Lows 30-37. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY: Overcast. Snow, may begin as rain Providence-Plymouth line to Cape Cod and Islands before changing to snow. Snow starts to taper off and end from west to east later in the day to early evening. Expected snow accumulations 1-3 inches Nantucket and Martha’s Vineyard, 3-6 Cape Cod and immediate South Coast of MA/RI/CT, as well as interior southern NH to far north central MA, 6-10 inches elsewhere, with pocket amounts of 10-12 inches favoring the Worcester MA area to northern RI. Temperatures steady 30-37 through midday, falling into the 20s by evening. Wind NE 10-20 MPH inland and 15-30 MPH coast, higher gusts likely especially MA South Shore through Cape Cod and Islands, over 40 MPH at times in those areas.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Lows 15-22. Wind NW 10-20 MPH. Wind chill below 10.

WEDNESDAY: Sun and passing clouds. Chance of snow showers in the morning. Highs 28-35. Wind NW 10-20 MPH. Wind chill near to below 20 at times.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 13-20. Wind NW 5-15 MPH. Wind chill below 10.

THURSDAY: Sun followed by clouds. Highs 31-38. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Cloudy with snow or snow showers – minor accumulation expected. Lows 25-32. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Any early snow showers ending with a sun/cloud mix. Highs 33-40. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (FEBRUARY 17-21)

Low pressure brings a chance of snow to the region early on February 17. Another disturbance brings a chance of snow showers on February 18. Generally dry weather thereafter. Temperatures below normal.

DAYS 11-15 (FEBRUARY 21-25)

Watching for potential low pressure impacts around February 22 and 25. Pattern may keep these more to the south and our area on the dry side.

DAYS 1-5 (FEBRUARY 11-15)

We’re post cold front, but it’s not going to be that chilly a day today – noticeably cooler than yesterday, yes, but still above normal for the season. Cold air does drain in slowly, but it’s going to take its time doing so, using up all of the available time through Monday evening ahead of an approaching storm. So today, it’s a gusty breeze and a dry day to be had with a sun / cloud mix. Tonight we clear out, and Monday we see increasing high clouds ahead of the aforementioned storm system. Storm? What’s up with that? Hey now it’s winter in New England, and just because much of the region hasn’t seen much up until now, that means little or nothing going forward. Why? You remember the gradual transition pattern change I talked about? Well, it’s changed. And we have a winter storm inbound – one that’s going to have some impact on the entire region. One change I am making to the previous forecast is lessening the chance that any rain is involved. This because the precipitation onset is late enough (Tuesday morning) that it’ll be cold enough across virtually all of the region to support snow. And any areas along the South Coast that start as rain will flip to snow in fairly short order. The upcoming storm will produce a moderate to borderline heavy snowfall for the vast majority of the region. Only the immediate South Coast and especially Outer Cape Cod and Nantucket may come in on the lighter side, because of the milder atmospheric profile there making it harder for the snow to accumulate, with a lower snow to water ratio. The snowfall amounts in the detailed forecast will reflect that. The timing on the storm’s precipitation is generally about dawn to dusk Tuesday. A coastal flood threat exists for the Tuesday high tide, as the tides are astronomically high anyway, and it won’t take much to create splashover and some low lying inundation up to a foot or so. This should just be for one tide cycle though. Tuesday night, the storm’s gone. Midweek features mainly dry and cold weather, along with wind. Brr! The snow that falls Tuesday is not going to be going anywhere for a while.

TODAY: Partly sunny. Highs 45-52. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts possible.

TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 27-34. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, diminishing.

MONDAY: Increasing high clouds. Highs 40-47. Wind N up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Thickening overcast. Lows 30-37. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY: Overcast. Snow, may begin as rain along the South Coast and will likely start as rain over the islands where it will take longer to change to snow. Expected accumulations 1-3 inches Nantucket and Martha’s Vineyard, 3-6 Cape Cod and immediate South Coast of MA/RI/CT, 6-10 inches elsewhere, with isolated amounts of 10-12 inches probable. Temperatures steady 30-37 through midday, falling into the 20s by evening. Wind NE 10-20 MPH, higher gusts possible along the coast, shifting to N.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Lows 15-22. Wind NW 10-20 MPH. Wind chill below 10.

WEDNESDAY: Sun and passing clouds. Highs 28-35. Wind NW 10-20 MPH. Wind chill near to below 20 at times.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 13-20. Wind NW 5-15 MPH. Wind chill below 10.

THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 30-37. Wind NW 10-20 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (FEBRUARY 16-20)

Disturbance from the west brings snow showers to the region February 16. Storm system follows that up and brings a chance of snow on February 17. Fair, colder weather follows this and lasts through the rest of the period.

DAYS 11-15 (FEBRUARY 21-25)

Fair weather and below normal temperatures early through mid period. Winter storm threat later in the period.

DAYS 1-5 (FEBRUARY 10-14)

A very mild Saturday is the feature for this weekend. Although today may start with dense fog in some locations, this will burn off and a sun/cloud mix is going to be met with temperatures rising to the 40s on the South Coast and 50s elsewhere. A couple locations may challenge records, set just last year, but I think they will fall short of those values. Example: Record high at Boston (Logan) is 60. I think they will peak at 57 or 58. Records or not, it will be a very nice mid winter day, feeling spring-like. Tonight, a cold front swings through the region with some rain showers, but this front is not delivering a quick shot of cold so I’m not expecting any black ice issues as low temperatures should remain above freezing generally across the region. In fact, behind the cold front, Sunday will still be a fairly mild day compared to the long term averages for the date, but we won’t challenge any records. Also, expect a dry day with sun and passing clouds. Colder air will continue to filter into the region gradually as we move through Sunday night and Monday. But once again, as we’ve seen many times this winter, the polar jet stream remains to our north, and the cold air delivery will be modest. This is also important in terms of our next storm threat, which we start to see increasing clouds from during Monday. Low pressure is going to be moving from the Tennessee Valley into the Appalachian Mountains late Monday. A redevelopment of this low pressure area will take place along the Atlantic Coast late Monday night and early Tuesday, after which it will track south of New England. The track of this low pressure area and its precipitation swath is key to our rain vs snow and snowfall accumulation forecast for the storm system, which is only going to be about a 12 hour event from pre-dawn to late afternoon on Tuesday. There are basically 2 main scenarios that can take place as I see it now. Scenario 1 is a low that develops near the Delmarva region and tracks just to the south of New England. This scenario would have the potential to see the precipitation start as rain along the coast, especially the South Coast, with a bit warmer lower atmosphere from a slightly stronger onshore flow (keeping in mind we’re lacking significant cold what the polar jet would have helped provide). The storm dynamics would still overcome this and flip those areas to snow, with a general snow event for the rest of the region. Snow-to-water ratios would be under 10:1 for most of the region in this scenario, with a ballpark guess for snowfall amounts being 2-4 inches along the South Coast and 4-8 inches for the balance of the region. Scenario 2 would be a low pressure system that redevelops a little further south, maybe northeastern NC or southern VA, then tracks a little further south of our region. While this would be a slightly colder scenario (but again not that much colder with the lack of the cold air from the polar jet), it would be cold enough to be basically a snow event for the entire region, but with a suppressed precipitation shield compared to scenario 1. This would result in lower snowfall amounts most on the order of 2-4 inches in southern NH and north central to northeastern MA with 4-8 inches being a good first guess for the remainder of the region. I don’t think this event lasts long enough and is heavy enough for enough time for anybody to hit double-digit snowfall amounts, even in the “snowiest” scenario for any given location. So for now, these ballpark snow guesses based on the 2 outlined scenarios will sit in this discussion and I’ll add updated forecast amounts to the detailed forecast on tomorrow morning’s blog update (sooner in the comments section if I feel more confident about how it plays out by tonight). Another aspect of the coming storm will be a coastal flood threat as astronomical tides will be high at the time of the storm’s passage. The Tuesday high tide is the most threatening for flooding issues. Regardless of the storm’s track and resultant impact, we see it depart late Tuesday, and Valentine’s Day Wednesday will be fair and cold, along with a gusty wind – finally feeling like mid winter around here.

TODAY: Areas of fog until mid morning, otherwise a sun/cloud mix with most sun late morning and more clouds this afternoon. Late-day rain showers southwestern NH and central MA. Highs 45-52 South Coast and tip of Cape Ann MA, 52-59 elsewhere. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy with rain showers early to mid evening. Partly cloudy late evening and overnight. Lows 33-40. Wind SW 5-15 MPH shifting to NW, a few higher gusts possible.

SUNDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 45-52. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts possible.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 27-34. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, diminishing.

MONDAY: Increasing high clouds. Highs 40-47. Wind N up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Thickening overcast. Rain/mix/snow likely toward dawn. Lows 30-37. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY: Overcast. Rain/mix/snow becoming all snow, ending by late-day. Temperatures steady 30-37. Wind NE 10-20 MPH, shifting to N.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Lows 15-22. Wind NW 10-20 MPH. Wind chill below 10.

WEDNESDAY: Sun and passing clouds. Highs 28-35. Wind NW 10-20 MPH. Wind chill near to below 20 at times.

DAYS 6-10 (FEBRUARY 15-19)

Watching for another possible low pressure area to bring a mix/snow chance around February 16 to early February 17 but this remains low confidence and the system may be further south. Fair weather to end the period. Temperatures below normal.

DAYS 11-15 (FEBRUARY 20-24)

2 potential snow threats to start and end the period with below normal temperatures. A suppressed storm track pattern is still possible as well (where those systems would stay to the south).

DAYS 1-5 (FEBRUARY 9-13)

A variety of weather is coming up during the next several days. A nice sunrise was just visible in eastern MA and southeastern NH with much of the region also frosted over heavily as overnight calm and mainly clear weather allowed temperatures to fall to dew point levels. Clouds advance quickly from west to east this morning and a brief episode of rain and/or sleet may occur, mainly northwest of Boston and near the South Coast, as a warm front moves through. This will be followed by the return of sun and a milder afternoon. The upcoming weekend will feature above normal temperatures, despite the passage of a cold front Saturday night. This front will bring rain showers to the region, but dry weather will dominate during the day Saturday and again on Sunday. Ahead of the front, Saturday will be the warmest day with 50+ high temperatures for pretty much everybody except perhaps portions of the South Coast, Cape Cod, and the Islands which may fail to reach 50. We can also see some areas of fog Saturday morning before we see lots of clouds and intervals of sun. I think the sun will lack enough so that record high temperatures, including the 60 set just last year at Boston, are not tied or broken. Sunday will be the cooler of the 2 weekend days, but still above normal for this time of year as the colder air will be slow to advect into the region. And then early next week, while colder air continues to filter into the region from high pressure in eastern Canada, we’ll be watching for the passage of low pressure near or south of the region. Model guidance continues to be in disagreement and inconsistent with this system. For now, it’s safe, forecast-wise, to go for a swath of probable precipitation of the liquid or frozen variety, odds favoring the frozen variety for most of the region, from late Monday to midday Tuesday. Details in precipitation type and timing will still need to be worked out. Model watchers: Knowing the uncertainty, don’t focus on any one model solution.

TODAY: Early sun east coastal areas, then lots of clouds through midday including the potential for brief rain or sleet north and west of Boston and near the South Coast. Sunshine returning during the afternoon west to east. Highs 43-50. Wind S under 10 MPH becoming SW and increasing to 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. Areas of fog forming. Lows 36-43. Wind SW 5-15 MPH evening, diminishing to under 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Areas of fog until mid morning, otherwise lots of clouds and intervals of sun. Late-day rain showers southwestern NH and central MA. Highs 48-53 South Coast, 54-59 elsewhere. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy with rain showers early to mid evening. Partly cloudy late evening and overnight. Lows 33-40. Wind SW 5-15 MPH shifting to NW, a few higher gusts possible.

SUNDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 40-47. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts possible.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 27-34. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, diminishing.

MONDAY: Increasing clouds. Highs 38-45. Wind N up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Overcast with rain/mix/snow probable. Lows 30-37. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY: Overcast with mix/snow probable in the morning, ending in the afternoon. Temperatures steady 30-37. Wind NE 10-20 MPH, shifting to N.

DAYS 6-10 (FEBRUARY 14-18)

Fair weather during the middle of next week. Watching for another possible low pressure area to bring a mix/snow chance around February 16 to early February 17 but this is low confidence and the system may be further south. Fair weather to end the period. Temperatures below normal.

DAYS 11-15 (FEBRUARY 19-23)

General pattern is cold/dry, but 1 snow threat may occur mid to late period.

DAYS 1-5 (FEBRUARY 8-12)

High pressure brings fair weather to our region today, and after a cold start, we’ll have a decent temperature moderation taking us to afternoon high temps that are not bad for early February. But even milder weather is ahead. A warm front will approach then pass the region Friday and Friday night with lots of clouds, but it still looks like any precipitation generated by it will travel to our north. As a storm that was once a menace for California travels across southeastern Canada, Saturday, we’ll be in a mild westerly flow of Pacific origin, and while much of the day looks rain-free, a batch of rain showers later in the day or at night will signal the arrival of a cold front. Behind this front, expect Sunday to be cooler and breezy with dry weather. The cooling trend will continue through Monday, at which time we’ll see cloudiness advancing ahead of our next storm threat, which can spread precipitation (rain/mix/snow) into the region later Monday. Precipitation type for this system, assuming it doesn’t miss to the south, can’t really be determined quite yet. At Day 5, there are questions to answer regarding how much cold air will be in place before the arrival. Stay tuned.

TODAY: Patchy clouds, but plenty of sun. Highs 39-46. Wind variable under 10 MPH becoming SE up to 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 32-39. Wind SE-S up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Partly to mostly cloudy. Highs 42-49, coolest northwest of Boston in higher elevations. Wind SE 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Lows 35-42. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY: Partly sunny. A passing rain shower possible late in the day. Highs 50-57. Wind SW 10-20 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy with a chance of a rain shower evening. Partly cloudy overnight. Lows 30-37. Wind W 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

SUNDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 40-47. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 27-34. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, diminishing.

MONDAY: Increasing clouds. Chance of rain/mix/snow late in the day or at night. Highs 38-45. Wind N up to 10 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (FEBRUARY 13-17)

Low pressure moves near or south of the region early February 13. Potential for mix to snow followed by drying as the system moves away. Generally dry/chilly weather is expected during the middle of next week. Watching for another possible low pressure area to bring a mix/snow chance around February 16 to early February 17 but this is low confidence and the system may be further south.

DAYS 11-15 (FEBRUARY 18-22)

Overall pattern looks on the drier side with below normal temperatures as the idea is stronger blocking suppressing a storm track mostly to our south.

DAYS 1-5 (FEBRUARY 7-11)

A northeast flow between a distant storm at sea and high pressure to the north propels clouds into southeastern MA for several more hours today before a clearing trend begins there. Elsewhere, sunshine will be more abundant without the impact of the flow off the ocean, and a gradual backing of the wind to the north will start clearing out southeastern areas later as well. High pressure moves over the region tonight and Thursday with fair weather – a cold night tonight and a modest warm up Thursday. Some high level clouds will stream across the sky at times through Thursday but start to increase Thursday night and especially Friday ahead of a warm front. This front should take any light precipitation it generates to the north of our region, but result in a very mild day here on Saturday with a sun/cloud mix. A rain shower may accompany a cold front crossing the region later Saturday, setting up a fair and slightly colder day Sunday, post front, with a northwest wind.

TODAY: Lots of clouds MA South Shore to southeastern RI eastward, with a few snow showers Cape Cod, followed by a clearing trend later today. Elsewhere, mostly sunny. Highs 32-39. Wind NE 5-15 MPH, strongest coast, shifting to N and diminishing later.

TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 15-22. Wind N-NW under 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 39-46. Wind variable under 10 MPH becoming SW up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 32-39. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Partly to mostly cloudy. Highs 42-49, coolest northwest of Boston in higher elevations. Wind SE 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Lows 35-42. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY: Partly sunny. A passing rain shower possible late in the day. Highs 50-57. Wind SW 10-20 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 30-37. Wind W 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

SUNDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 40-47. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

DAYS 6-10 (FEBRUARY 12-16)

Watching a passing low pressure area, most likely to our south, to be possibly close enough to bring a period of mix to snow later February 12 into February 13, followed by fair and colder weather mid to late next week.

DAYS 11-15 (FEBRUARY 17-21)

Overall pattern looks on the drier side with below normal temperatures as the idea is stronger blocking suppressing a storm track mostly to our south.

DAYS 1-5 (FEBRUARY 6-10)

Large scale blocking remains in place with high pressure ridging from our west to our north, and low pressure stretching from northeast of the Bahamas to south of Nova Scotia. Between these systems a north to northeast air flow will remain established over our region through Wednesday. A canopy of clouds will be generally located from the I-95 region eastward, with thickest and most persistent cloud cover over southeastern MA through Wednesday. It is here, mainly coastal Plymouth County to Cape Cod, where occasional to at times more persistent ocean-effect snow showers can occur, with some minor accumulations possible. This will not be a high-impact event. Weather systems start to move eastward during midweek, and the high pressure ridge will find its way into and across our region during Thursday and Friday with fair weather and moderating temperatures. While we’ll have lost the cloud deck from the ocean, we’ll start to see some high and mid level clouds moving in at times from the west on Thursday and even more so on Friday. By Friday night, a warm front moving into the region can generate some light precipitation, mainly rain though the possibility of some mixed precipitation across higher elevations of central MA and southwestern NH. This does not look like a widespread event or anything more than just light intensity. It leads a mild air mass into the region to start the weekend on Saturday, with temperatures rising to well over the seasonal average for the date. It should be a mainly dry day, but I can’t rule out a passing rain shower or two from a weak trough of low pressure passing by.

THROUGH WEDNESDAY: Lots of clouds I-95 eastward, fewer clouds to the west. Occasional snow showers Plymouth County MA to Cape Cod / Islands. Minor accumulations possible. Highs 32-39. Lows 21-28. Wind NE 10-20 MPH except 15-25 MPH Cape Cod with a few higher gusts possible.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Lows 15-22. Wind N-NW 5-15 MPH, diminishing.

THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 39-46. Wind variable under 10 MPH becoming SW up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 32-39. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Partly to mostly cloudy. Highs 42-49, coolest northwest of Boston in higher elevations. Wind SE 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. A period of light rain possible, with some mix of rain/sleet/snow possible higher elevations well west and north of Boston. Lows 32-39. Wind SE-S 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY: Partly sunny. A passing rain shower or two possible. Highs 51-58. Wind S-SW 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (FEBRUARY 11-15)

A cold front swings through the region as a trough departs to the east with mild air ahead of it, a potential rain shower, and a modest cool down following later on February 11 to finish off the weekend. Low pressure threatens a more widespread precipitation event in the February 12-13 time frame, but timing and low pressure track will help determine the details. These can be brought into better focus during the next several days. Fair and seasonably chilly weather follows that storm threat for the middle of next week.

DAYS 11-15 (FEBRUARY 16-20)

Another potential storm system can impact the region early to mid period. Temperatures trend to below normal.

DAYS 1-5 (FEBRUARY 5-9)

Large scale blocking is in place. The systems that impact our weather over the next few days are high pressure, which extends from near the Great Lakes into southeastern Canada, and low pressure, which stretches from off the coast of Florida to south of Nova Scotia. After abundant sunshine today, retrogression of upper level low pressure to our east will strengthen a northeasterly air flow, especially in coastal areas and across southeastern MA and RI, later today and tonight through Tuesday and into Wednesday. Cloudiness will return to eastern and southeastern portions of our region, most especially from the Seacoast of NH south southwestward through RI and much of eastern and southeastern MA starting this evening and going through Tuesday, into Wednesday. In addition, ocean-effect snow showers become more likely starting later this evening until sometime early or midday Wednesday, generally southeast of a Boston-Providence line. This region can see coatings of snow with up to an inch or two possible in some locations. Watch for occasionally to frequently slick untreated surfaces where these occur. The air flow backs to a more north and northwest direction later Wednesday when a clear-out process takes place. As the block weakens somewhat, systems will start to drift eastward, and high pressure will move over the region during Thursday with dry and tranquil weather, along with a warming trend after a chilly start to the day. High level clouds will appear during the afternoon in advance of an approaching trough and frontal system, which will send more cloudiness into the region during day on Friday, along with a continued milder trend, and a chance of some mixed precipitation and rain by Friday evening…

TODAY: Mostly sunny. Clouds arrive in southeastern MA around sunset. Highs 33-40. Wind N-NE 5-15 mph.

TONIGHT: Lots of clouds southeastern MA with possible snow showers. Mostly clear to partly cloudy elsewhere. Lows 18-25, coldest inland. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY / TUESDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Probable coastal snow showers southeastern MA / Cape Cod with a coating to around an inch of accumulation likely, and locally up to 2 inches of accumulation possible. Highs 31-38. Lows 21-28. Wind NE 10-20 MPH except 15-25 MPH Cape Cod, higher gusts possible in some coastal locations.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy to partly sunny. Snow showers ending in southeastern MA. Highs 32-39. Wind N 5-15 MPH except 15-25 MPH Cape Cod.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Lows 15-22. Wind N-NW 5-15 MPH, diminishing.

THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 39-46. Wind variable under 10 MPH becoming SW up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 32-39. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Partly to mostly cloudy. Chance of mix/rain at night. Highs 42-49, coolest northwest of Boston in higher elevations. Wind SE 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (FEBRUARY 10-14)

A more west to east movement of weather systems during this period. Low pressure moves through the Great Lakes to southeastern Canada early in the period and another low pressure area follows that up to pass near or just south of the region early next week. A rain shower is possible February 10 otherwise the February 10-11 weekend looks mainly dry with above normal temperatures, warmest to start, cooler to finish. Rain/mix/snow potential exists February 12 into February 13. Dry weather should end the period with seasonably chilly conditions.

DAYS 11-15 (FEBRUARY 15-19)

Another potential storm system can impact the region around mid period.

DAYS 1-5 (FEBRUARY 4-8)

Even during our quiet stretches of weather there can be things to keep an eye on, and that will be the case during the coming several days for our area. But most importantly to many people who were longing for sunshine, we finally have a day today where it’s pretty much 100% sunny regionwide. The ONE small exception is a last band of ocean-effect stratocumulus clouds streaming from north to south over Cape Cod as of sunrise that will dissipate by mid morning, and I think that should be it for clouds today. There will be a bit of a breeze today making the highs around 40 feel colder, but not substantially so. The wind drops off tonight which will make it a cold one as any “heat” that the sun gave us radiates quickly back to space. Inland locations, closer to calm winds, will be coldest, while a feeble coastal breeze combined with the effect of the “warmer” ocean water will keep the temperature from falling as low there as it does inland. Monday’s breeze will become a little more active again as the sun mixes up the atmosphere, and it may be a couple degrees colder across the region than it is today, but look for plenty of sun. The exception is the southeastern portion of MA which may see an increase in ocean-effect cloud bands once again . The rest of the eastern portion of the WHW forecast area (southeastern NH, northeastern MA, and RI) can see some bands of higher clouds drift in from the northeast later in the day. Where are these clouds coming from? While we have high pressure ridging from the Great Lakes through southeastern Canada, supplying our fair weather, at the same time, as part of a large scale blocking pattern will be offshore low pressure. In fact, two storms out there will have an influence on our sensible weather during the next several days. The first one, southeast of Nova Scotia, will be responsible for helping turn the surface wind more to the northeast and returning the lower clouds to southeastern areas later Monday, and the outer edge clouds from the storm’s circulation will be the higher clouds that spin in from the northeast. That first area will start to drift away to the east, but while all this is going on, another storm passing very far to our south (through the US Southeast and Florida) will move into the western Atlantic and we’ll end up with elongated low pressure well to our southeast with high pressure to our north and northwest. That will maintain a more northeasterly air flow for our region into midweek, during Tuesday and Wednesday. This will result in more cloudiness again favoring southeastern MA and into RI. At any point from Monday evening through Wednesday, we can see bands of ocean-effect snow showers impacting mainly areas south of Boston. If/when this occurs, we’ll have to watch for localized quick but small snowfall accumulations that can make for temporarily slippery travel conditions. Once we get to Thursday, the blocking weakens and shifts slightly so that a more eastward movement of large scale features occurs. This will put a high pressure area over our region with light winds and a clearer sky. After a cold morning Thursday, we’ll see a nice temperature rebound and a milder afternoon. So, despite all the activity to keep an eye on, there’s still some nice mid winter weather to be had in our region in the days ahead…

TODAY: Early clouds Cape Cod, otherwise sunny. Highs 35-42. Wind N-NW 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Clear. Lows 13-18 inland, 19-24 coast. Wind N under 10 MPH inland, up to 10 MPH coast.

MONDAY: Sunny through midday. Lower clouds return to southeastern MA by later in the day with a few higher clouds appearing elsewhere later too. Highs 33-40. Wind N-NE 5-15 mph.

MONDAY NIGHT: Lots of clouds southeastern MA with possible snow showers. Mostly clear to partly cloudy elsewhere. Lows 18-25, coldest inland. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY: Variably cloudy. Potential coastal snow showers favoring southeastern MA / Cape Cod. Highs 31-38. Lows 21-28. Wind NE 10-20 MPH, higher gusts possible in some coastal locations.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Lows 15-22. Wind N-NW 5-15 MPH, diminishing.

THURSDAY: Sunny. Highs 39-46. Wind variable under 10 MPH becoming SW up to 10 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (FEBRUARY 9-13)

A more west to east movement of weather systems during this period. Initially, high pressure hangs on with fair weather to start February 9, but a trough / low pressure moving into the Great Lakes eventually to southeastern Canada brings a warm front through the region late that day with a chance of rain and higher elevation snow at night. This system’s cold front swings through with a chance of rain showers but mild air initially on February 10 before slightly colder air arrives to finish the weekend February 11 with dry weather. Watching for a storm system to bring the chance of rain/mix/snow to the region February 12 into February 13, but this far in advance there’s no way to provide any details.

DAYS 11-15 (FEBRUARY 14-18)

A more active pattern sends 1 or 2 potential storm systems our way at mid month. Variable temperatures during the period – no major extremes indicated.