C-19 Chat Post – March 24 2021

DAYS 1-5 (MARCH 23-27)

One more very nice day in our four-day stretch of fabulous March weather. Once again with high pressure over us and a light wind, we’ll see sea breeze development keeping the coast cooler while inland areas warm nicely. But let’s face reality: This is New England and this is March. You know this isn’t going to last, and it’s not. Changes are coming, and it starts as an often-seen springtime cut off low to our south lifts out and adds moisture in the form of cloudiness to our sky as a warm front approaches from the west Wednesday. While any rainfall from the low to the south stays mostly offshore, a bit of a link between that and the warm front does produce a period of two of rainfall from Wednesday evening into Wednesday night. Wednesday itself will be a cooler day with a more general onshore gradient wind flow and extensive cloud cover, but we’ll bust into the warm sector on Thursday when all areas see a nice southwesterly wind. This will help much of the region warm to levels that feel more like mid to late spring, but at this time of the year the water temperatures mean that a southwesterly wind is going to keep the South Coast, especially Cape Cod, much cooler, and there may also be more cloudiness down that way as a result of the warm and relatively more humid air passing over that water. As a cold front approaches and passes through the region during Friday, we’ll start in the warm air but see lots of clouds and increasing rain shower activity from west to east as the front nears. Behind that front, which will be parented by strengthening low pressure passing to the north of the region, a shot of breezy and cooler air arrives for Saturday, but it will be a dry day to start the final weekend of the month.

TODAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 52-59 coast, 60-67 inland. Wind variable up to 10 MPH with coastal sea breezes.

TONIGHT: Increasing clouds. Lows 36-43. Wind SE under 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Highs 49-56, coolest coast. Wind SE 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Periods of rain. Lows 41-48. Wind SE up to 10 MPH shifting to SW.

THURSDAY: Partly sunny except mostly cloudy at times South Coast region. Highs 49-54 Islands / Cape Cod, 57-64 remainder of South Coast, 65-72 elsewhere. Wind SW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Chance of rain showers. Lows 48-55. SW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy. Rain showers likely, especially during the afternoon. Highs 48-55 Islands & Cape Cod, 56-63 remainder of South Coast and southeastern MA as well Cape Ann, 63-70 elsewhere. Wind SW to S 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy with rain showers and a slight chance of a thunderstorm evening. Clearing overnight. Lows 38-45. Wind W 15-25 MPH.

SATURDAY: Sun and passing clouds. Highs 53-60. Wind NW 10-20 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (MARCH 28 – APRIL 1)

The back half of the last weekend of March look unsettled as low pressure approaches and moves in from the southwest with some beneficial rain potential for March 28, that may start out as a rain/sleet mix over some interior areas if enough cold air gets in just before the system arrives. With much colder air nearby, we have to watch the track and evolution of this low as it may not end cleanly as just rain on March 29, but with the potential for some mix/snow involved as well. This low may also be slow to move away with a bit of an atmospheric roadblock in place, and this should result in a windy/colder ending to the month with even a reinforcing shot of cold air possibly arriving and lasting through the first day of April. There are some notable differences in the various guidance out that far so will re-evaluate this going forward.

DAYS 11-15 (APRIL 2-6)

Going to be near boundary of Canadian cold and US Mid Atlantic warmth. You know what that means. Uncertain temperature forecast made even more complicated by the ocean water temperatures. Also the potential for a couple rounds of unsettled weather is certainly there. Not even going to try to venture anything day-to-day this far in advance. Stay tuned…

C-19 Chat Post – March 23 2021

DAYS 1-5 (MARCH 22-26)

High pressure sits atop New England early this week, continuing the very nice weather stretch that we started over the weekend. Once again the coastal areas will be cooler each day due to a sea breeze developing, and each night the inland lower elevations will be colder due to radiational cooling. High pressure partially gives way Wednesday as low pressure passes south of the region and a warm front approaches from the southwest ahead of another low pressure area heading for the Great Lakes, resulting in a general increase in cloudiness and a southeasterly air flow which will keep the region more uniform in temperature, the result being a cooler day for inland areas that won’t be able to warm as efficiently as the next 2 days. The warm front may bring a touch of light rain Wednesday evening as it passes and opens the door to a warmer southwesterly air flow for Thursday. Although this air flow will result in cooler conditions for the South Coast, especially Cape Cod and the Islands. The low heading into the Great Lakes will be passing north of our area Thursday night and Friday, dragging a cold front through when we will see our best chance for rain shower activity. We need rain as we have had a very dry March so far. However, this does not look like it will be a very significant rain producer. What it will do is introduce a cooler air mass later Friday – with the temperatures that day highly dependent on the timing of the cold front. The air behind it will probably be cold enough to allow a mix or snow should any precipitation linger long enough, but at the moment this is not very likely to occur – more of a remote possibility.

TODAY: Sunny. Highs 50-57 coast, 58-65 inland. Wind variable up to 10 MPH with coastal sea breezes.

TONIGHT: Clear. Lows 33-40. Wind variable under 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Sunny. Highs 50-57 coast, 58-65 inland. Wind variable up to 10 MPH with coastal sea breezes.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Increasing high clouds. Lows 36-43. Wind SE under 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Highs 49-56, coolest coast. Wind SE 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Chance of light rain. Lows 41-48. Wind SE up to 10 MPH shifting to SW.

THURSDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 48-55 Islands / Cape Cod, 56-63 remainder of South Coast, 64-71 elsewhere. Wind SW 10-20 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Rain showers likely. Lows 48-55. Wind SW 10-20 MPH.

FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy. Rain showers likely. Highs 57-64, may fall quickly late-day / evening. Wind SW 10-20 MPH shifting to NW by late-day.

DAYS 6-10 (MARCH 27-31)

Early call on the last weekend of March (27-28) looks dry/cool Saturday, still on the cool side but watching for the arrival of low pressure from the southwest Sunday. As this system moves through into March 29 we’ll have to watch closely as cold air will be nearby so there is a slight chance we’ll be dealing with a rain/snow line somewhere, but leaning toward a rain event for now. Rain or snow, any precipitation we can get is needed. Dry/chilly ending to March (30-31).

DAYS 11-15 (APRIL 1-5)

The trend in the early days of April is for a warm-up that may not really take hold until later in the period as we’ll be near the border of Canadian cold while US Southeast warmth tries to push in. It may be unsettled during the transition.

C-19 Chat Post – March 22 2021

DAYS 1-5 (MARCH 21-25)

This first full day of spring will feel like it – sunshine, chilly start, warming up most efficiently inland, warm-up thwarted at the coast by sea breeze. This will repeat tomorrow and Tuesday too as high pressure sits on us. This high pressure area will give way to an approaching warm front on Wednesday when clouds will increase, but it may not be much of a rainfall producer as it comes through that evening / night. What it will likely do is set us up for our warmest day regionwide (except South Coast modification) with a stronger southwesterly air flow on Thursday as we’ll be in a warm sector post warm front and pre cold front (which will be well to our west).

TODAY: Sunny. Highs 48-55 coast, 56-63 inland. Wind variable up to 10 MPH with coastal sea breezes.

TONIGHT: Clear. Patchy ground fog interior lower elevations. Lows 33-40. Wind variable under 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Sunny. Highs 48-55 coast, 56-63 inland. Wind variable up to 10 MPH with coastal sea breezes.

MONDAY NIGHT: Clear. Patchy ground fog interior lower elevations. Lows 33-40. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Sunny. Highs 49-56 coast, 57-64 inland. Wind variable up to 10 MPH with coastal sea breezes.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Clear then increasing high clouds. Patchy ground fog interior lower elevations. Lows 36-43. Wind SE under 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of light rain by late-day or evening. Highs 48-55. Wind SE 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Chance of light rain. Lows 41-48. Wind SE up to 10 MPH shifting to SW.

THURSDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 45-52 Islands / Cape Cod, 53-60 remainder of South Coast, 61-68 elsewhere. Wind SW 10-20 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (MARCH 26-30)

Low pressure passing north of the region drags a cold front through with rain showers likely March 26. Timing of systems becomes difficult out this far but best guess now is we have a mainly dry March 27-28 weekend, starting chilly and ending milder, though some guidance has suggested unsettled weather arriving before the end of the weekend so there is a little uncertainty there. March 29 looks like transition time with unsettled weather, leading to a drier but colder March 30.

DAYS 11-15 (MARCH 31 – APRIL 4)

(No change from yesterday.) Based on current anticipated timing of systems and being near the border of a mild US Southeast and a cold eastern Canada, expecting a dry but chilly finish to March and a warming trend the first few days of April marked by some unsettled weather during the transition.

C-19 Chat Post – March 21 2021

DAYS 1-5 (MARCH 20-24)

The Vernal Equinox occurred at 5:37 a.m. .. Spring is here! You know I always warn about thinking any threat of winter weather is over just because spring arrives. Well, we won’t worry about any winter weather threats right now because even though we know what late March & April can do to us here, we have a nice weather pattern to start off the new season as high pressure moves in today and sits atop New England for several days, through Tuesday in fact. Today’s temperatures will be most uniform across the region due to a westerly air flow. Sunday through Tuesday, warmest weather will be inland during the day while coastal areas are cooler due to sea breeze development. Nights will be chilly due to radiational cooling from the combination of clear sky and light wind, though we may see some ground fog formation in lower elevations each night as the temperature makes a run for the dewpoint during its overnight fall. By Wednesday, an increase in clouds and a more regional southeasterly air flow ahead of a warm front will likely make this a cooler-feeling day, and there may be some light rainfall around later in the day or in the evening as the warm front arrives.

TODAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 52-59. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 26-33. Wind W under 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 48-55 coast, 56-63 inland. Wind variable up to 10 MPH with coastal sea breezes.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Clear. Patchy ground fog interior lower elevations. Lows 33-40. Wind variable under 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Sunny. Highs 48-55 coast, 56-63 inland. Wind variable up to 10 MPH with coastal sea breezes.

MONDAY NIGHT: Clear. Patchy ground fog interior lower elevations. Lows 33-40. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Sunny. Highs 49-56 coast, 57-64 inland. Wind variable up to 10 MPH with coastal sea breezes.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Clear then increasing high clouds. Patchy ground fog interior lower elevations. Lows 36-43. Wind SE under 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of light rain by late-day or evening. Highs 48-55. Wind SE 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (MARCH 25-29)

Warmest day except cooler South Coast March 25 ahead of a cold front, the parent low pressure of which passes north of the region late March 25 and early March 26 when a better shot of rain occurs, before it turns breezy, colder, and dry later March 26. High pressure brings mostly fair weather, a cool start then moderating temperatures in the March 27-28 period before the next disturbance brings a chance of unsettled weather by March 29.

DAYS 11-15 (MARCH 30 – APRIL 3)

Based on current anticipated timing of systems and being near the border of a mild US Southeast and a cold eastern Canada, expecting a drier but chilly finish to March and a warming trend the first few days of April marked by some unsettled weather during the transition.

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C-19 Chat Post – March 20 2021

DAYS 1-5 (MARCH 19-23)

When I drew up my “1/2 to 2 inch” snowfall forecast thinking that was conservative enough two days in advance (undercutting many other forecasts), it still was not enough to be accurate. That’s one aspect of trying to predict the future. It just doesn’t always pan out exactly how you think. And even now, so much scrutiny is placed on a forecast involving snowfall amounts, more so than temperature, or wind speed, or any other parameter, that “everybody is watching” and waiting for you to be incorrect. Sure, the forecast deserves criticism as anything is subject to it, as long as it’s fair criticism. The forecast was wrong, because the precipitation outran the cold air overnight, so by the time it was snowing, or almost time to snow, it was drying out. Most of us were off by a couple of hours in arrival of cold air vs. end of precipitation timing. The cold air was just a touch slower getting in than most forecasts, and the precipitation was just a touch quicker existing than most of us guessed. Therefore, most areas just saw a few flakes and basically no accumulation, except closer to the South Coast where some coatings have occurred. Had this been a situation with just rain and now possible switch to snow, nobody would really have noticed. That’s what I mean by higher level of scrutiny due to this odd obsession we have with frozen stuff vs. liquid stuff. Anyway, any remaining snowfall near the South Coast will be ending soon, and probably over by the time most people read this. But regardless, we needed whatever moisture fell as we’ve been dry all month after a minor event on March 1. After one windy and chilly day today, we have a string of nicer days ahead, just in time for the start of spring (Vernal Equinox Saturday at 5:37 a.m.) as high pressure builds in over the weekend and holds into early next week. After somewhat uniformly cool air Saturday, the Sunday-Tuesday period will see inland areas warm up most each day while the coast is cooler.

TODAY: Any South Coast snow ends early, otherwise clouds give way to sun. Highs 36-43. Wind N 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.

TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 23-30. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts, diminishing to 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY: Sun and passing clouds. Highs 45-52. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 22-29. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 52-59, but cooler eastern coastal areas. Wind NE up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 32-39. Wind variable under 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Sunny. Highs 53-60 except cooler coast. Wind variable up to 10 MPH with coastal sea breezes.

MONDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 33-40. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Sunny. Highs 55-62 except cooler coast. Wind variable up to 10 MPH with coastal sea breezes.

DAYS 6-10 (MARCH 24-28)

March 24 may turn unsettled as low pressure drifts up from the south and a disturbance arrives from the west, bringing the chance for some rainfall. High pressure should bring dry weather March 25-27 with initially cooler weather then moderating temperatures. Next disturbance may bring the chance for unsettled weather by the end of the period.

DAYS 11-15 (MARCH 29 – APRIL 2)

As usual trying to time anything more than 10 days in advance is nearly impossible, but while 1 or 2 disturbances may threaten with some unsettled weather in the final days of March and very start of April, the general pattern is still looking on the drier side with near to above normal temperatures on average, but variations day to day.

C-19 Chat Post – March 19 2021

DAYS 1-5 (MARCH 18-22)

A hint of spring, a taste of winter, that’s how we roll here in March, and it will be no different the next few days. We had a nice day yesterday, ending up with plenty of sun and relatively mild air for mid March (very late winter), and today will have its own relative mildness to it despite an overcast and eventual rain moving in. But cold air is not far from us and will be making its way steadily south as low pressure passes south of the region tonight and early Friday on its way to sea. This will flip the rain to snow from north to south, and allow for some generally minor accumulation before the system exits. The “worst” of the snow in the pre-dawn of Friday will be to impact visibility for anybody driving. Heavy enough snow may coat some secondary roadways and walkways for a short while, making them slushy/slippery, but main roads should stay just wet with this one, and most of the 1/2 to 2 inch accumulation should be on grassy surfaces and cold car tops, etc. Is it possible that a couple years may go over 2 inches? Yes, but it would make very little difference in overall impact. By later Friday, we’re dry, breezy, chilly, and clearing out. The vernal equinox at 5:37 a.m. Saturday marks the start of spring, although Saturday morning will definitely still have the chill of winter before the March sun makes the balance of the day quite tolerable despite a gusty breeze. Sunday and Monday will feature a decent temperature moderation, especially if you are away from the shoreline. The trademark “cooler coast” will be in effect as we develop sea breezes both days under the influence of springtime high pressure.

TODAY: Cloudy. Rain arrives west to east this afternoon. Highs 46-54. Wind SW to variable up to 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Overcast. Rain evening, changing to snow overnight from north to south and accumulating 1/2 to 2 inches before tapering to snow showers. Lows 27-34. Wind variable shifting to N 5-15 MPH evening increasing to 10-20 MPH with higher gusts overnight, strongest near the coast.

FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy to partly sunny. Chance of snow showers early. Highs 36-43. Wind N 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 23-30. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts, diminishing to 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY: Sun and passing clouds. Highs 45-52. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 22-29. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 52-59, but cooler eastern coastal areas. Wind NE up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 32-39. Wind variable under 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Sunny. Highs 52-59 except cooler coast. Wind variable up to 10 MPH with coastal sea breezes.

DAYS 6-10 (MARCH 23-27)

March 23 … high pressure overhead, fair weather, mild inland, cool coast. March 24 … high pressure moves off and a frontal system approaches with a risk of rain showers. March 25-27 … Drier weather returns, cooler initially then moderating.

DAYS 11-15 (MARCH 28 – APRIL 1)

Overall pattern is dry but temperature forecast is uncertain as we will again be near a boundary between a warmer US Southeast and a colder eastern Canada, which is not unusual at all for early spring in the Northeast.

C-19 Chat Post – March 18 2021

DAYS 1-5 (MARCH 17-21)

March will be up to its antics the next few days, but first we have a pleasant St. Patrick’s Day today as high pressure finishes its job of obliterating low pressure that was trying to move into the region. But this high will give way to the next low pressure area which will be more moisture-filled, although not necessarily a strong storm itself. Its large area of moisture will be in the process of stringing itself out and moving rather quickly from west to east while the low pressure elongation passes south of New England early Friday. The moisture associated with it will be expansive enough that we get into it, with mild air in place so it starts as a rain event everywhere. But as previously stated, we were to be near the boundary of much colder air, and that boundary slips to the south and allows the cold air in, turning this to a snow event before it’s over. No, it’s not going to be a big snowstorm, but it will be the type of event that can have some impact more on visibility than actual road conditions as we will flipped over to snow (north to south) in the pre-dawn hours of Friday, and will still be snowing at commute time. With mild air and rain at first, the roads will not be primed to allow accumulating snow, but to fight against it, and with temperatures probably staying just above to right around freezing, road icing will also not be an issue when combined with the “warmer” pavement anyway. Most of our snow accumulation (which will be noted below) will be on unpaved surfaces (grass, dirt, sand, car tops, etc.). And then, just like that, it’s all gone. The precipitation moves out, maybe leaving behind a few lingering flurries as a colder northerly wind strengthens, but we’ll have enough solar radiation even if clouds hang in for a while on Friday to pretty much eliminate any snow that fell by day’s end. After a breezy and cold Friday night, and a continued breezy and chilly but dry Saturday, the back half of the weekend will remain dry with a temperature moderation. With the vernal equinox at 5:37 a.m. Saturday marking the official start of spring, we’ll have quite a nice first weekend of the new season.

TODAY: Mostly cloudy start across south central MA, RI, and eastern CT, otherwise partly to mostly sunny. Highs 47-54. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Increasing clouds. Lows 32-39. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Cloudy. Rain developing late-day west to east. Highs 50-57 except 45-50 South Coast. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Periods of rain, changing to snow from north to south. Lows 25-32. Wind variable becoming NE 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Cloudy with snow tapering to snow showers morning. Total snowfall accumulation of 1/2 to 2 inches, mostly on unpaved surfaces. Mostly cloudy to partly sunny afternoon. Highs 36-43. Wind N 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 23-30. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.

SATURDAY: Sun and passing clouds. Highs 40-47. Wind NW 10-20 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Lows 22-29. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 52-59, but cooler eastern coastal areas. Wind NE up to 10 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (MARCH 22-26)

High pressure parks off to the south of New England with fair and milder weather early in the period. A frontal system comes through mid period with a chance of some rainfall, followed by fair but somewhat colder weather later in the period.

DAYS 11-15 (MARCH 27-31)

Cool start to the period, then moderating temperatures with some unsettled weather during the transition. May turn chilly again right at month’s end as more Canadian cold slips into the Northeast.

C-19 Chat Post – March 17 2021