Friday March 19 2021 Forecast (6:52AM)

38 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (MARCH 19-23)

When I drew up my “1/2 to 2 inch” snowfall forecast thinking that was conservative enough two days in advance (undercutting many other forecasts), it still was not enough to be accurate. That’s one aspect of trying to predict the future. It just doesn’t always pan out exactly how you think. And even now, so much scrutiny is placed on a forecast involving snowfall amounts, more so than temperature, or wind speed, or any other parameter, that “everybody is watching” and waiting for you to be incorrect. Sure, the forecast deserves criticism as anything is subject to it, as long as it’s fair criticism. The forecast was wrong, because the precipitation outran the cold air overnight, so by the time it was snowing, or almost time to snow, it was drying out. Most of us were off by a couple of hours in arrival of cold air vs. end of precipitation timing. The cold air was just a touch slower getting in than most forecasts, and the precipitation was just a touch quicker existing than most of us guessed. Therefore, most areas just saw a few flakes and basically no accumulation, except closer to the South Coast where some coatings have occurred. Had this been a situation with just rain and now possible switch to snow, nobody would really have noticed. That’s what I mean by higher level of scrutiny due to this odd obsession we have with frozen stuff vs. liquid stuff. Anyway, any remaining snowfall near the South Coast will be ending soon, and probably over by the time most people read this. But regardless, we needed whatever moisture fell as we’ve been dry all month after a minor event on March 1. After one windy and chilly day today, we have a string of nicer days ahead, just in time for the start of spring (Vernal Equinox Saturday at 5:37 a.m.) as high pressure builds in over the weekend and holds into early next week. After somewhat uniformly cool air Saturday, the Sunday-Tuesday period will see inland areas warm up most each day while the coast is cooler.

TODAY: Any South Coast snow ends early, otherwise clouds give way to sun. Highs 36-43. Wind N 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.

TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 23-30. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts, diminishing to 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY: Sun and passing clouds. Highs 45-52. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 22-29. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 52-59, but cooler eastern coastal areas. Wind NE up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 32-39. Wind variable under 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Sunny. Highs 53-60 except cooler coast. Wind variable up to 10 MPH with coastal sea breezes.

MONDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 33-40. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Sunny. Highs 55-62 except cooler coast. Wind variable up to 10 MPH with coastal sea breezes.

DAYS 6-10 (MARCH 24-28)

March 24 may turn unsettled as low pressure drifts up from the south and a disturbance arrives from the west, bringing the chance for some rainfall. High pressure should bring dry weather March 25-27 with initially cooler weather then moderating temperatures. Next disturbance may bring the chance for unsettled weather by the end of the period.

DAYS 11-15 (MARCH 29 – APRIL 2)

As usual trying to time anything more than 10 days in advance is nearly impossible, but while 1 or 2 disturbances may threaten with some unsettled weather in the final days of March and very start of April, the general pattern is still looking on the drier side with near to above normal temperatures on average, but variations day to day.

38 thoughts on “Friday March 19 2021 Forecast (6:52AM)”

  2. The “snowy” half of the system may have failed miserably, but the “rainy” half passed with flying colors.

    0.66” at Logan

  5. Good morning and thank you TK. No complaints about the forecast from me. Crap happens.

    0.82 inch of rain in me ole bucket this morning.

    Temp has dropped to 29.

    Rain outran the cold, simple as that. (although I am sure there is a complicated reason for why that happened.)

    Let’s bring on Spring. I am actually ready. 🙂 🙂

  6. Thank you TK!
    A much needed .71” in the rain bucket. Hopefully that temporarily helps with the fire risk we’ve had the last few days.

  7. Thank you, TK!

    Love reading your explanations.

    Looks like NYC will squeak out a victory in the snow race.

    1. Thanks TK. Joshua it looks like by 0.1 my will be win unless Boston could squeak out 0.2 to win. If Boston wins that way to me it would be walking in the winning run with the bases loaded.

    1. Thanks for the reminder! Blah! Though my allergies usually begin flaring up second week of May so at least I can enjoy these first several days of warm before then 🙂

  9. Thank you, TK. Interesting read.

    I seriously doubt anyone reading here does not know my view on faulting weather folks so I will spare everyone from repeating. And yes, I do hear that very deep, collective sigh.

    I believe strongly that forecasts should be put out in advance. By now, for those who do not understand that these are preliminary outlooks for potential planning purposes and NOT set in stone need to be ignored. Science is not perfect. When you add in all of the variables that weather folks face, well…..an intelligent individual doesn’t need an explanation.

    I posted the temp several times last night because even I was smart enough to know that the rain had begun early (or what I thought was early) and was accumulating equally early. And the cold air just wasn’t here yet.

    I am not smart enough to use wording that “the precipitation outran the cold air.” But it was fairly clear that was happening.

    And criticism? I’d challenge anyone who is critical to work under the public eye for a while.

    On two positive notes (one has been mentioned)….I never get why folks look for negatives and not positives….we had 1.13 inch of rain. Very welcome rain. The second is that I spend snow days in my jammies. It is a rare treat on top of another rare treat. So today……I am spending the day in my jammies….snow or no snow.

    Now how can anyone not look at that as a banner day!

    Rant over. Off to chase the only squirrel we have had since moving here off of the suet feeder I have set up for blue birds.

  10. For JPDave……had my 2nd Moderna shot yesterday and I feel fine today.
    Hope yours goes as well!

      1. I watched the Grammy Awards and thought it was the best version of it in quite a long while. Perhaps 20 years. There were a couple performances that were not my cup o’ tea but most of the lives were awesome! I love how they kept it to the music and left the politics OUT of it. I have no issue whatsoever with an artist writing and performing songs about whatever they want (politics, religion, the models coming in later after the time change, etc.) but please at all awards shows spare us the political speeches, just get up there and thank your fans for supporting you! 🙂

        2. I never minded the political speeches as long as they were not long. Of course, I usually agreed with them 100% so that makes it easier to take. You probably didn’t hear any this time around because a certain somebody is not in the White House anymore. 🙂

          I thought that it was an excellent show and the diversity of artists was very apparent. Kudos to the Grammies.

          1. Oh I have no problem with whatever they believe and you’re probably right about that too… I just don’t think the awards shows are the place to rant. It takes away from the show. Let the music do the talking I say! Anyway, it did this year and I loved it. 🙂

    2. That is good, but would have been better, in my opinion, if she had a tattoo on her arm. Based on the photos I see online, most people getting vaccinated have tattoos!

      And she needs a mask over that beguiling smile.

  15. I’m in danger of having lost TWO of my final four teams in my brother’s pool before we’re 6 games into the NCAA tournament. HAHAHAHAHA…

    1. Not only did I lose 2 final four teams, I lost one of the teams I had going to the championship game. Well, at least this pool was for fun with no $ this year. I don’t follow college b-ball at all but I like to do the pool. I guess the only thing to do now is to root for Gonzaga to go all the way without ever losing a game.

      1. That’s why I don’t play anymore. Too many early upsets nowadays that can totally ruin a bracket on the first day.

        1. That’s what makes it fun! For me, it’s not all about winning. It’s just exciting to follow and I live for the early upsets! I picked a bunch – just not the right ones so far. 😉 Imagine how boring it would be if the “favored” team won every time? Anything can happen out there. Today, Ohio State (a #2 seed) looked right past Oral Roberts (#15), and lost to them in OT. It busted my bracket big time, but whatever. 🙂

  16. I have been fortunate to go to the Final Four and National Championship in 1996 and two years ago seeing the first two rounds in Hartford. The atmosphere is great at these tournament games. I am hoping to go back to the tournament in 2023 when the first and second round will be in Albany. I had Ohio State going to the elite 8.

    1. Me too! I saw some of the Big Ten conference final, and they gave Illinois quite a game.
      (I also had Michigan State going to the sweet 16.)

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