C-19 Chat Post – August 27 2021

DAYS 1-5 (AUGUST 25-29)

The heat is on for one more day, along with high humidity. Today’s atmosphere is only marginally unstable which may allow for a couple isolated air pass thunderstorms to pop up in the afternoon heat, but it’s quite unlikely that any one location will see one. If you do win the thunderstorm lottery, you can expect a relatively short period of heavy rain with lightning and thunder, along with brief gusty wind and maybe small hail. For most of us though, just a hot and humid late summer day today. Tonight will be one of those warm and stuffy summer nights, but during the night a cold front will be passing by with little fanfare, perhaps a shower or thunderstorm in a few locations, otherwise this front will be announced by a wind shift to north and a drop in the dew point, and while Friday will still be a fairly warm day (80s), the dew point will be falling through the 60s after having been near or over 70 today. But we’re not quite done yet, as a second front, a back-door cold front, will cross our region Friday night, shifting the wind to northeast and eventually east and making it even cooler. The dew point will reduce further so in relativity to today and early Friday it will feel even drier, but not quite as crisp had we had a continental air mass, instead of a maritime one. In addition, cloud cover will be abundant on Saturday both from some low level ocean moisture from the east, and mid level moisture from the west. So while that day will probably be rain-free, don’t expect a stellar one with lots of sunshine either. The cooler air hangs on Sunday but add in the chance of showers as the boundary that went by us to bring the cooler air is returning as a warm front. This front will push back across the region by Monday which will see the return of warmth (not too hot) and higher humidity, with an additional shower and thunderstorm chance as cold front then approaches from the northwest.

TODAY: Sun and a few clouds. A slight chance of an isolated afternoon thunderstorm favoring southwestern NH, central MA, and eastern CT areas. Highs 87-94. Dew point near 70. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. A shower or thunderstorm possible. Patchy fog. Lows 67-74. Dew point middle to upper 60s. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Partly to mostly sunny. Highs 82-89. Dew point falling through 60s. Wind NW to N 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. A brief light shower possible. Patchy ground fog. Lows 56-63. Dew point falling to middle 50s. Wind N to NE up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of a shower, favoring southern MA southward early. Highs 70-77, coolest coast. Dew point middle 50s. Wind NE to E 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Isolated showers favoring areas southwest of Boston. Lows 58-65. Dew point middle to upper 50s. Wind E up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Mostly cloudy. Scattered showers. Highs 68-75. Dew point lower to middle 60s. Wind SE up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Scattered showers. Areas of fog. Lows 62-69. Dew point lower to middle 60s. Wind SE up to 10 MPH shifting to SW.

MONDAY: Partly sunny. Chance of showers and thunderstorms. Highs 80-87. Dew point upper 60s. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (AUGUST 31 – SEPTEMBER 4)

A little unsure of timing but front may still be in the region August 31 with a shower threat then lowering humidity. A disturbance brings a shower chance in the September 1-2 window and there may also be some tropical moisture involved from a system that had been in the Gulf of Mexico previously. A warm and humid set-up follows this.

DAYS 11-15 (SEPTEMBER 5-9)

Watching for shower threats around September 6-7 and possibly again by the end of the period from disturbances which we can’t really time this far in advance. Much of this period, despite the couple shower threats, looks rain free, controlled mostly by high pressure.

C-19 Chat Post – August 26 2021

DAYS 1-5 (AUGUST 25-29)

Heat and humidity will be the theme of the weather today and Thursday with high pressure over the region. A cold front will cross the region Thursday night into Friday but conditions are not going to be very supportive for shower and thunderstorm activity so this change will just feature some cloudiness and only the slight chance of a shower, then the edge coming off the heat with lowering humidity during Friday. A stronger back-door cold front will push through from northeast to southwest Friday night, setting up a much cooler weekend, although I’m not feeling as optimistic about a mostly sunny weekend as I was previously. It appears that frontal boundary will only make it to a position just south of the South Coast and a couple of weak low pressure disturbances may move along it. This will mean that the weekend would feature a lot of clouds, and maybe even a few showers, with the shower threat weighted toward Saturday at this stage. There will still be some fine-tuning to do for that part of the outlook.

TODAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 86-93. Dew point upper 60s to 70. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Ground fog patches. Lows 68-75. Dew point upper 60s to 70. Wind SW under 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Partly cloudy. Highs 87-94. Dew point upper 60s. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. A shower possible. Patchy fog. Lows 65-72. Dew point middle to upper 60s. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 80-87. Dew point falling through 60s. Wind NW to N 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Patchy ground fog. Lows 56-63. Dew point falling to middle 50s. Wind N to NE up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of a shower, favoring southern MA southward. Highs 70-77, coolest coast. Dew point middle 50s. Wind NE to E 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Lows 58-65. Wind E up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Variably cloudy. Highs 68-75. Wind E up to 10 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (AUGUST 30 – SEPTEMBER 3)

Current timing brings warm front across the region by early August 30 with showers then higher humidity before approaching cold front brings a shower and thunderstorm threat sometime later August 30 into August 31. High pressure builds in with drier weather for the first few days of September.

DAYS 11-15 (SEPTEMBER 4-8)

Disturbances time out for around September 4 & 7 with shower threats, otherwise high pressure in general control with mostly dry weather.

C-19 Chat Post – August 25 2021

DAYS 1-5 (AUGUST 24-28)

I have to mention Henri one more time, because kind of in keeping with the “personality” of the system, its remains have been slow to exit, along with an upper low, with a cloudy and damp start to our weather today resulting. However, improvement is coming, and will take place from later morning onward as the clouds finally dissipate and clear out from west to east, along with any lingering showers and patches of drizzle. However, there will be a quick warm-up as this happens and dew points are high, so a very warm and muggy afternoon is in store, and as high pressure builds in with the air mass source region being quite warm, we have hot and humid weather for Wednesday and Thursday. A cold front approaching the region late Thursday and passing through during Thursday night will bring the chance for a shower or thunderstorm but it appears that such activity will be limited. High pressure builds in for Friday – still warm but turning drier. After that, a back door cold front will swing down the coast Friday night and introduce a cooler air mass for the start of the weekend.

TODAY: Cloudy start with patchy fog, areas of drizzle, and isolated showers. Clearing west to east late morning on leading to a mostly sunny afternoon. Highs 82-89. Dew point lower 70s. Wind NW up to 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Clear. Ground fog patches. Lows 66-73. Dew point upper 60s. Wind W under 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Sunny. Highs 86-93. Dew point upper 60s to 70. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Ground fog patches. Lows 68-75. Dew point upper 60s to 70. Wind SW under 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Partly cloudy. Highs 87-94. Dew point upper 60s. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. A shower or thunderstorm possible. Patchy fog. Lows 65-72. Dew point middle to upper 60s. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 80-87. Dew point falling through 60s. Wind NW to N 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Patchy ground fog. Lows 56-63. Dew point falling to middle 50s. Wind N to NE up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 70-77, coolest coast. Dew point middle 50s. Wind NE to E 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (AUGUST 29 – SEPTEMBER 2)

August 29 (end of weekend) becomes partly cloudy and a bit warmer and more humid as the front that came by at the end of the week comes back as a warm front, and this leads to warm and humid weather with a chance of a few showers at times for the last couple of days of the month in a southwesterly air flow. Cold front excpected come by with an additional shower threat September 1 before drier air arrives for the first couple days of the new month.

DAYS 11-15 (SEPTEMBER 3-7)

Disturbances time out for around September 4 & 7 with shower threats, otherwise high pressure in general control with mostly dry weather.

C-19 Chat Post – August 24 2021

DAYS 1-5 (AUGUST 23-27)

We’re not quite done with Henri yet. The system itself had its final advisory issued by NHC and is a tropical depression, stationary over eastern NY State. Over the next few hours the remaining low pressure system, along with an upper low, will start to move eastward and will cross our region during the course of today and this evening. It will bring episodes of showers and possible thunderstorms, some of which may be on the heavy side, with even the threat of some severe weather (damaging wind gusts biggest threat). Finally, this exits overnight and then we have 3 days of very warm to hot and humid summer weather Tuesday-Thursday as high pressure moves in. The timing of the next system, a cold front, looks like it will be early Friday as it crosses the region with a chance of showers, and the arrival of a less humid air mass, but may need to tweak that timing as the week goes on.

TODAY: Mostly cloudy. Areas of fog this morning. Scattered to numerous showers and possible thunderstorms this afternoon. Highs 76-83. Dew point upper 60s to lower 70s. Wind SE to S 5-15 MPH with higher gusts possible. Damaging wind gusts are possible in any thunderstorms.

TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy with showers and thunderstorms in the evening. Partly cloudy overnight. Areas of fog. Lows 65-72. Dew point middle to upper 60s. Wind SW up to 10 MPH shifting to N.

TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 80-87. Dew point upper 60s. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Patchy fog. Lows 64-71. Dew point middle 60s. Wind W under 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 84-91. Dew point upper 60s. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Patchy fog. Lows 65-72. Dew point middle to upper 60s. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY: Partly cloudy. Highs 86-93. Dew point upper 60s. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Patchy fog. Lows 65-72. Dew point middle to upper 60s. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Partly cloudy with a chance of showers in the morning. Mostly sunny afternoon. Highs 80-87. Dew point upper 60s falling to upper 50s. Wind SW 5-15 MPH shifting to N.

DAYS 6-10 (AUGUST 28 – SEPTEMBER 1)

High pressure builds in from eastern Canada with a fair and dry August 28-29 weekend, then sinks off to the south with warmer and more humid weather August 30-31. Frontal system may bring a few showers by September 1.

DAYS 11-15 (SEPTEMBER 2-6)

High pressure should bring mainly dry weather and near to above normal temperatures with one interruption later in the period from a frontal boundary bringing higher humidity and a chance of showers.

C-19 Chat Post – August 23 2021

DAYS 1-5 (AUGUST 22-26)

Henri was downgraded to tropical storm this morning. This is most important statistically as it means the hurricane landfall drought continues for New England with Bob (8-19-1991) still being the last tropical cyclone to make landfall as a hurricane in New England. Regardless, Henri as a strong tropical storm is still a formidable system as it moves into southern New England, with landfall on the coast near the CT/RI border by noon or a little after. There is a solid rain band ahead of the system that as of the time of this blog writing (9AM) is right over my head here, covering much of the Boston area and this will pivot northwestward over the next couple hours, producing some torrential rain and areas of flooding. What we can expect today as Henri moves ashore and inland, weakening, is for steadiest rain to the west of the center and a more showery set-up to the east (behind this main band). Strongest winds will occur east of the center and nearest the coast, 40-50 MPH with gusts to or above 60 MPH for a while in some locations, along with some storm surge of up to a few feet. The worst of this should occur between high tides which helps a little. I’m not going to waste too much time rewriting what I wrote yesterday about this, since we’re in the midst now. In the comments below several times today you will see a link posted to my colleague’s live blog and he will be updating that frequently. Henri’s slightly further eastward track means it may spend a little less timing “hanging around” but the system will still be around into Monday with additional showers and possible thunderstorms before it moves out and drier weather but very warm to hot weather enters the picture for the middle of the week.

TODAY: Cloudy through morning with numerous showers and embedded thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy afternoon with occasional showers and downpours, including possible breaks of sun especially RI and eastern MA to southeastern NH. Highs 75-82. Dew point lower to middle 70s. Wind variable 15-35 MPH, strongest South Coast where a period of higher winds occurs through midday.

TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy with areas of fog and periodic showers, some possibly heavy. Lows 68-75. Dew point upper 60s to lower 70s. Wind SE to S 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.

MONDAY: Mostly cloudy to partly sunny with occasional showers and possible thunderstorms. Highs 75-82. Dew point upper 60s to lower 70s. Wind variable to SW to W 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

MONDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Lows 61-68. Dew point near 60. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 78-85. Dew point lower 60s. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 60-67. Dew point upper 50s. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 83-90. Dew point upper 50s. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 63-70. Dew point lower 60s. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY: Partly cloudy. Highs 85-92. Dew point middle 60s. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (AUGUST 27-31)

A frontal boundary slips down from the north cooling the region down later next week before a warming trend arrives the last couple days of the month. Limited rain chances, mainly dry weather.

DAYS 11-15 (SEPTEMBER 1-5)

The early days of September look fairly dry and on the warm side with high pressure dominating.

C-19 Chat Post – August 22 2021

DAYS 1-5 (AUGUST 21-25)

First, a fairly nice though humid late August day today to start the weekend. All eyes on Henri now, though we still have about 24 hours or a little less to nail down the final details and make any preparation needed, though it must be stressed at this point that while Henri is going to cause some local flooding and power outage issues, this is not going to be a classic New England hurricane either. In fact, I don’t even think Henri will be a hurricane anymore when the center reaches land, which I am becoming more confident is going to take place somewhere on the western half of Long Island (though there is still some room for adjustment here). This represents the “left turn” scenario I described as a possible scenario. This scenario would spare our region a significant storm surge and the heaviest rain area, and while we’d still be on the storm’s windy side, its smaller size, westward turn, and weakening would also mean that wind would not be as strong as a storm with a larger wind field and further eastward track would bring us. Since we will be on the eastern side, and the precipitation will be convective and showery, there will be the conditions in place once again that can support the development of small, brief tornadoes, so we need to be on the look-out for that during the day Sunday. The timing of the system is a touch faster than I thought about 24 hours ago, so we can see these showers at any time. Henri’s movement is far enough west that we can see breaks of sunshine as well. I am still a little unsure how the center responds to steering once it gets across Long Island. It probably goes into western CT and possibly NY. Not quite sure if the then small and weaker center drifts northward before heading back eastward, or goes stationary before coming back eastward. These details will have implications on wind direction and precipitation orientation. Whatever is left of the system should take its time exiting the region from west to east during Monday, so we can expect unsettled weather that day as well. Finally, drier air arrives Tuesday into midweek as high pressure builds in from the west.

TODAY: Partly sunny. Highs 78-85, coolest coast. Dew point upper to middle 60s. Wind SW up to 10 MPH shifting to E during the day.

TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Showers arriving South Coast overnight and up to I-90 and Greater Boston by dawn. Patchy fog. Lows 62-69. Dew point middle to lower 60s. Wind E to SE 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY: Mostly cloudy. Occasional to numerous showers and possible thunderstorms. Highs 75-82. Dew point lower to middle 70s. Wind SE 10-20 MPH inland and 15-30 MPH coastal areas with higher gusts, and locally damaging wind gusts possible.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy with areas of fog and periodic showers, some possibly heavy. Lows 68-75. Dew point upper 60s to lower 70s. Wind SE to S 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.

MONDAY: Mostly cloudy to partly sunny with occasional showers and possible thunderstorms. Highs 75-82. Dew point upper 60s to lower 70s. Wind variable to SW to W 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

MONDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Lows 61-68. Dew point near 60. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 78-85. Dew point lower 60s. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 60-67. Dew point upper 50s. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 78-85. Dew point upper 50s. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (AUGUST 26-30)

High pressure will be the dominant force in the weather with mostly rain-free conditions and near to above normal temperatures.

DAYS 11-15 (AUGUST 31 – SEPTEMBER 4)

High pressure is expected to dominate, with limited rain chances and fairly warm weather.

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C-19 Chat Post – August 21 2021

DAYS 1-5 (AUGUST 20-24)

Tropical moisture lingers in the form of fog, drizzle, and a few showers, but a drying trend (in terms of rain chances) takes place today, but not so much humidity, that will be sticking around (pun potentially intended) for a while. A more general onshore flow will develop as we get into the weekend which will keep temperatures in check though, so no high heat to go along with the mugginess. As you know by now, a hurricane watch has been issued for the New England South Coast in response to the threat from Henri, which is going to make an approach to New England later this weekend from the south. There are still questions to be answered regarding the ultimate track of the center of that storm and this will determine the details of its impact on our region. This morning we see a variety of model solutions, which is no surprise, and we see a track from the NHC that brings the center onto the South Coast as a category 1 hurricane late on Sunday. However, there are scenarios on the table still covering a sooner turn to the left, or a jog to the right, and even a non-landfall. So the fine-tuning of this will be ongoing throughout the next few days so we can pin down what is most likely to happen and where. For this blog update, you won’t find grand detail in the forecast because I don’t feel that it is possible to responsibly do that yet. We should just be prepared for all of the things that a system like this can deliver and result in: strong wind with damage, heavy rain, flooding, power outages. Whatever Henri ends up bringing us, we will see improving conditions by later Monday through Tuesday.

TODAY: Mostly cloudy. Areas of fog and drizzle with isolated showers into mid morning. Highs 78-85. Dew point upper 60s to lower 70s. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Variably cloudy. Areas of fog. Lows 65-72. Dew point upper 60s. Wind SW under 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 78-85, coolest coast. Dew point upper to middle 60s. Wind SW up to 10 MPH shifting to E during the day.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Patchy fog. Lows 62-69. Dew point middle to lower 60s. Wind E under 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Mostly cloudy. Increasing chance of showers, favoring southern areas. Chance of thunderstorms favoring the South Coast in the afternoon. Areas of fog. Highs 72-79. Dew point upper 60s to lower 70s. Wind E to NE 5-15 MPH, may be stronger South Coast region later in the day.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Overcast with areas of fog. Widespread showers and embedded thunderstorms. Heavy rainfall possible. Lows 65-72. Dew point middle 60s to 70. Wind E to variable 10-20 MPH but could be stronger.

MONDAY: Mostly cloudy with a chance of rain or showers in the morning. Partly sunny afternoon. Highs 75-82. Dew point upper to middle 60s. Wind variable to W 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Lows 61-68. Dew point near 60. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 78-85. Dew point lower 60s. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (AUGUST 25-29)

High pressure will be the dominant force in the weather with mostly rain-free conditions and near to above normal temperatures.

DAYS 11-15 (AUGUST 30 – SEPTEMBER 3)

High pressure is expected to dominate, with limited rain chances and fairly warm weather.

C-19 Chat Post – August 20 2021