Saturday October 30 2021 Forecast (10:28AM)

DAYS 1-5 (OCTOBER 30 – NOVEMBER 3)

Today is “storm day” number two this week, but we’ll find it to be a much tamer event in comparison to the one we experienced previously. However, rain and some gusty wind will hamper cleanup and power restoration efforts especially in the areas that were hardest-hit. After this set-back, conditions will improve. The aspects of today’s event are still expected to be as described in the previous update: two main surges of rain, one that already went though leaving us with pockets of lighter rain and drizzle, and another surge to come during the afternoon and evening, this one containing areas of heavier rain and potential thunder as the low center cuts right across RI and eastern MA from south to north. Again a reminder to watch for slippery roads where leaves cover them, and blocked storm drains leading to road and parking lot flooding. Behind the departing low we will see a drying southwest wind, and other than the slight chance of a brief passing shower, Sunday is looking quite nice with a sun/cloud mix and mild air despite a breeze. Trick-or-treat weather Sunday evening looks a.o.k. with dry conditions, a light breeze, and temps sinking gradually into the 50s. Heading into the first part of next week, a pleasant first day of November Monday, and then a cold front moves through Tuesday aiding in the process of a cooling trend into midweek, with temperatures sitting a little below normal by Wednesday.

TODAY: Overcast with drizzle and periods of rain through midday then widespread rain showers and possible thunderstorms moving in from south to north during the afternoon. Highs 56-63. Wind E 5-15 MPH inland and 15-25 MPH coast, with gusts up to 40 MPH possible mainly coastal areas later in the day.

TONIGHT: Overcast with rain showers likely including the chance of thunderstorms in the evening. Mostly cloudy with lingering rain showers possible overnight. Areas of fog. Lows 48-55. Wind variable 5-15 MPH becoming SW.

SUNDAY: Partly sunny. Slight chance of a brief passing rain shower. Highs 61-68. Wind SW 5-15 MPH, gusts around 20 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Evening temps (trick-or-treat time) falling into 50s. Lows 43-50. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 54-61. Wind W 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

MONDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 38-45. Wind WNW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

TUESDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 52-59. Wind W 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Chance of rain showers. Lows 41-48. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Partly cloudy. Highs 48-55. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (NOVEMBER 4-8)

Watch for a wave of low pressure to produce a period of rain (possible inland mix) November 4 into November 5. Upper low may produce a few rain and/or snow showers around the November 6-7 weekend but leaning away from a more organized storm system. Otherwise, mostly dry weather. Temperatures below normal.

DAYS 11-15 (NOVEMBER 9-13)

The transition to a milder pattern may be marked by a cloudier and more unsettled stretch as we head toward the middle of November. Obviously too soon for any attempt at details.

47 thoughts on “Saturday October 30 2021 Forecast (10:28AM)”

  1. Looking back at the storm, I think I am impressed with the HRRR´s performance as far out as 36 hrs pre-event. Going to keep this in mind for future events.

    Sadly, I look at the EURO a lot less. Always used to go to it first, now, I´ve switched to the GFS and within 36 hrs, will be complimenting it with HRRR.

    1. European model is less-than-impressive these days. Still gets some idea of the general pattern right, but not to the degree it once did. I think they “upgraded” it one too many times. 😛

      HRRR was good in the short range on the last event. One of my colleagues made particular mention of this. He doesn’t talk on the blog but we are in touch daily in chat / email.

    1. This tune reminds me of some of the more rock-style tunes on late 1970s and 1980s Alan Parsons Project albums. 🙂

      I can hear singer LennyZakatek (who sang a handful of their songs) doing the vocals for this one.

  2. Thanks TK.

    The sun has actually come out at my daughters softball game in Franklin CT and it is feeling warm. The first game this morning was brutal with constant drizzle and on and off periods of rain. Hopefully will finish this second game before the heavier slug of rain comes in. Thought we would have a cancellation today but it is the last weekend of fall ball and the coach wanted to get it in.

    1. Nice. I’d love to see it here for our pumpkin event on the common tonight and the many other events tonight also.

  3. No wind here; but if Wunder is even close to correct, there is considerable wind on the cape. I don’t see it as strong on the south shore, but that could easily be timing of when I check the station

    1. Wow! You really got nailed. Yes, hard to believe it’s been 10 years. 🙂

      All Logan got was a lousy inch, then only 9.3” for that 2011-12 season. 🙁

      The price paid for October snow. 😉

      1. That October snow kills winter snow thing has to be abandoned. We’ve already posted data here multiple times that says it’s 50/50, at best. October snow does NOT automatically kill the winter. It just simply doesn’t.

    2. Thanks, Mark. Destructive and beautiful all at once. It was sure quite a memorable storm. We were in framingham then, but sure looked similar there.

    3. We got 10” in Coventry. My yard faired pretty well but lots of destruction and power outages nearby. We got lucky and were one of the few in the area not to lose power.

  4. Thanks, TK!

    I hope everyone has a chance to catch their breath this weekend.

    I remember teaching remotely from my dining room a year ago with moderate snow falling.

    Dew point has come up a lot in the last hour or so.

    Sun? What’s that?

  5. Just picked up some wood in marshfield I figured tonight would be a good night for the first fire . Waiting on the heavy rain / nothing yet .

  6. A few decades ago, when my kids were relatively young, a friend made the comment that we always saw snow before November 11. We’d had snow that year, but I wasn’t sure whether that was true. So I watched. And sure enough….maybe not always but often enough. Caution,,,,I said saw snow 😉

  7. We postponed until tomorrow night but I fear we lost our headless horseman as she is the headless horseman at Sturbridge village also

  8. Thank you, TK.

    Thankfully there wasn’t much rain at the football game I went to with friends: Harvard against Dartmouth at the venerable Harvard Stadium (1902 gem).

    Biked through very heavy rain about an hour ago. Hard to brake when it’s so wet. Little traction as you’re riding through rivulets. Plus all the leaves around made it slippery. And it was dark. Oh well. Made it home.

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