DAYS 1-5 (AUGUST 19-23)
Two systems of tropical origin have some impact on our weather the next 5 days. First, the remains of what was once Tropical Storm Fred pass through our region today from southwest to northeast, in the form of a weak low pressure area, but with plenty of moisture. It will produce a couple rounds of showers, the first being a pretty solid batch of rainfall, steadiest I-90 northward, a little more showery to the south. Keep in mind that the low level wind shear associated with systems like this can sometimes lead to brief, usually weak tornadoes occurring with some of the convective cells. These can lead to locally damaging winds and this is a slight possibility during the morning and midday hours as the first batch of showers comes across the region. Also, some localized flooding may occur with heavier rain in poor drainage areas. The second shower batch will be more in the form of a scattered shower area moving through as the low center gets ready to pull away later on, and this system will have made its exit by tonight. A small area of high pressure sneaks in behind it for Friday, which will likely be a rain-free day with the exception of a possible pop up shower, and it will be warm and quite humid. A back-door cold front will slip down from the northeast this weekend with a bit of a cooling trend and a slight drop in the humidity. Our attention will be on Henri, forecast to be a category 1 hurricane south of New England by later in the weekend. There is still a significant deal of uncertainty with the eventual track of this system and its impact on SNE. My advice is to be prepared for an impact while keeping in mind that we may still be impacted minimally. This is all going to depend on the track and strength details, which will reveal themselves the next couple of days. Subtle details of strength of high pressure ridging to the north of the system and a trough of low pressure approaching from the west will have the final say in this, so for now my forecast will reflect the potential for rainfall from the system later Sunday into Monday, with some wind.
TODAY: Mainly cloudy. Numerous to widespread showers and possible thunderstorms morning-midday southwest to northeast across the region. Scattered showers and thunderstorms west to east again later in the day. Highs 75-82. Dew point upper 60s to middle 70s. Wind S up to 10 MPH. Briefly stronger wind gusts are possible in some showers and storms.
TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Slight chance of a passing shower this evening. Patchy fog. Lows 67-74. Dew point upper 60s to lower 70s. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.
FRIDAY: Partly sunny. Isolated showers and thunderstorms possible. Highs 80-87. Dew point upper 60s to lower 70s. Wind W up to 10 MPH.
FRIDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Areas of fog. Lows 65-72. Dew point upper 60s. Wind SW under 10 MPH.
SATURDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 78-85, coolest coast. Dew point upper to middle 60s. Wind SW up to 10 MPH shifting to E during the day.
SATURDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Patchy fog. Lows 62-69. Dew point middle to lower 60s. Wind E under 10 MPH.
SUNDAY: Mostly cloudy. Rain is possible mainly later in the day favoring southern areas. Areas of fog.Highs 72-79. Dew point middle to upper 60s. Wind E to NE 5-15 MPH, may be stronger South Coast region later in the day.
SUNDAY NIGHT: Cloudy with periods of rain and a chance of thunderstorms. Fog likely. Lows 63-70. Dew point middle to upper 60s. Wind E to NE 10-20 MPH and gusty, may be stronger especially in coastal areas.
MONDAY: Mostly cloudy with a chance of rain or showers in the morning. Partly sunny afternoon. Highs 75-82. Dew point upper to middle 60s. Wind variable to W 5-15 MPH.
DAYS 6-10 (AUGUST 24-28)
A trough moving through from the west brings the chance of additional shower and thunderstorm activity August 24 possibly into August 25 before high pressure builds in with dry and seasonably warm weather thereafter.
DAYS 11-15 (AUGUST 29 – SEPTEMBER 2)
High pressure is expected to dominate, with limited rain chances and fairly warm weather.