C-19 Chat Post – February 5 2021

DAYS 1-5 (FEBRUARY 4-8)

Upper level low pressure hung around overnight with a few more snow showers, adding another dusting or coating of snow to some locations. Now, it’s moving out and after a lot of clouds to start we’ll get a break in the unsettled weather as a sliver of high pressure moves in to bring some sun today, but that won’t last long as another low heads for the St. Lawrence Valley on Friday and its trailing frontal systems combine to bring us more precipitation, starting out as snow with a minor accumulation in southern NH and perhaps parts of adjacent northern MA, with rain elsewhere, then rain in all areas as the day goes on. This exits at night and is replaced by dry and colder weather Saturday. Next, 2 systems will fail to phase as they move by the region on Sunday, a southern stream one passing well to the south of New England early Sunday while a northern stream system heads into the region with its cold front later in the day, perhaps with a snow shower or squall, reinforcing the cold air for Monday when we may have another system rapidly approaching by the end of the day from the west in a fast-flowing jet stream.

TODAY: Lots of clouds and a lingering snow flurry possible, then sunshine. Highs 36-43. Wind NW 5-15 MPH becoming variable under 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Increasing clouds. Lows 25-32.Wind variable to SE up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Cloudy. A period of rain south and mix/snow northern MA and southern NH with accumulation of up to but mostly less than 1 inch, then numerous rain showers in all areas during the afternoon. Highs 38-45. Wind SE up to 10 MPH morning, SW 10-20 MPH afternoon.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Lows 22-29. Wind W 10-20 MPH. Watch for black ice formation!

SATURDAY: Partly cloudy. Highs 32-39. Wind W 10-20 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 18-25. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY: Variably cloudy. A few snow showers possible and a risk of a heavier snow squall later in the day. Highs 30-37. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Lows 15-22. Wind NW 10-20 MPH.

MONDAY: Sun followed by clouds. Snow possible at night. Highs 28-35. Wind NW 10-20 MPH morning, variable 5-15 MPH afternoon.

DAYS 6-10 (FEBRUARY 9-13)

This period looks colder and mostly dry with a storm track to the south of the region.

DAYS 11-15 (FEBRUARY 14-18)

This period looks a little less cold but with a more active and unsettled pattern for our area.

C-19 Chat Post – February 4 2021

DAYS 1-5 (FEBRUARY 3-7)

The broad low pressure circulation that constitutes the winter storm still having a minor impact on the region today will gradually drift off to the east and away from us through tonight, but during that process we still have a little bit of ocean-effect snow on the North Shore and into Metro Boston this morning and another disturbance passing by to the southeast that will cause some snow shower activity across southern and eastern sections this morning into early afternoon, so some spotty small snowfall accumulations can be expected. In areas that were a little warmer during the recent storm and some melting occurred, a lot of that froze up overnight so beware of icy patches if you are heading out today. A narrow area of high pressure moves in and provides us with one nice winter day on Thursday before the next system brings unsettled weather in for Friday. This will be a minor impact event as low pressure tracks well northwest of New England and drags its frontal boundaries through the region – warm front followed quickly by cold front. Enough cold air will be around for a minor snowfall event at the start of this mainly in northern MA and southern NH with minor accumulation there, but the bulk of what falls will be in the form of rain and come later in the day. This system will push offshore and open the door to colder air coming back in over the weekend. The next storm threat we are watching is for Sunday, but right now my opinion is that 2 pieces of energy needing to phase for this to become anything significant will not phase and we’ll just have some cloudiness and a chance of light snowfall. However, with it being day 5 of this forecast, apply the uncertainty of a forecast 5 days out along with the additional questionable guidance performance, and it goes without saying that we’ll have to keep a close eye on this.

TODAY: Mostly cloudy to partly sunny with a chance of light snow or snow showers through mid afternoon. Spotty dustings and coatings of snow. Highs 33-40. Wind N to NW increasing to 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.

TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 22-29. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 36-43. Wind NW 5-15 MPH becoming variable.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Increasing clouds. Lows 25-32.Wind variable to SE up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Cloudy. A period of rain south and mix/snow northern MA and southern NH with accumulation of up to but mostly less than 1 inch, then numerous rain showers in all areas during the afternoon. Highs 38-45. Wind SE up to 10 MPH morning, SW 10-20 MPH afternoon.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Lows 22-29. Wind W 10-20 MPH. Watch for black ice formation!

SATURDAY: Partly cloudy. Highs 32-39. Wind W 10-20 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 18-25. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of light snow or flurries. Highs 27-34. Wind variable 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (FEBRUARY 8-12)

Leaning toward a colder/drier period of weather with a weaker storm track to the south of the region. More about this in upcoming blog posts…

DAYS 11-15 (FEBRUARY 13-17)

Low confidence but leaning toward a slight temperature moderation but more active weather pattern for mid February. Elaboration to come…

C-19 Chat Post – February 3 2021

DAYS 1-5 (FEBRUARY 2-6)

I’ll start by saying that looking at the snowfall accumulation map from the NWS this morning, this may be the most “variable” snowfall distribution I have seen in all my years of forecasting with some of the sharpest snowfall gradients. Looking back, the forecast was “ok”, off for some areas, on for others. Areas that I thought may get a slushy inch or two saw a few flakes and a slushy coating at most before turning to rain, while my top range was ok except for a few 17 to 20 inch amounts. Amazingly, the 20 inch amount occurred in town that borders my home town of Woburn – Wilmington MA, while here at Woods Hill, while I still have to officially measure what fell since 1:30 a.m. when I was sitting at 9.5 inches, I’m probably around 10 for the total as it looks like about 1/2 inch managed to add up after that. And then you have the gradient from about 1 inch at Logan to 13 inches just down the road and up the hill at Blue Hill Observatory in Milton. Synoptic banding, elevation, and a coastal front all played major rolls in the storm – a forecaster’s nightmare in a way, but a weather nut’s fascination. I’ll say that the latter is the bigger deal for me on this one, personally. But now it’s time to move on and look ahead. We still have some impact from this storm system today and even into Wednesday as its complex elongated low center does a little dance just offshore before pulling away. So we’ll have a spotty mainly light variety of precipitation today and some additional snow or snow showers for a while on Wednesday, not producing any significant accumulation. Then we get a break Thursday as high pressure moves in with a nice day. The next low passes northwest of our area on Friday with its frontal system bringing some unsettled weather, probably starting with some light snow/mix and ending up as rain showers. Behind this comes drier but somewhat colder air for the start of the weekend…

P.S.: Punxutawney Phil saw his shadow this morning, which means he agrees with the WHW long range forecast for the month of March. 😉

TODAY: Cloudy. Occasional showers of rain and pockets of freezing rain, sleet, & snow. No significant ice or snow accumulation but watch for slippery areas. Highs 35-42 morning, falling slightly in the afternoon. Wind NE to N 10-20 MPH with gusts to 30 MPH inland and 15-25 MPH with gusts to 40 MPH coastal areas except 45-55 MPH Cape Cod, especially in the morning and midday.

TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Additional mix/snow showers evening. Lows 25-32. Wind N to NW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy to partly sunny with a chance of light snow or snow showers through mid afternoon. Highs 33-40. Wind N to NW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 22-29. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 36-43. Wind NW 5-15 MPH becoming variable.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Increasing clouds. Lows 25-32.Wind variable to SE up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy. A touch of rain/mix/snow possible in the morning. Chance of rain showers in the afternoon. Highs 38-45. Wind SE up to 10 MPH morning, SW 10-20 MPH afternoon.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Lows 22-29. Wind W 10-20 MPH.

SATURDAY: Partly cloudy. Highs 32-39. Wind W 10-20 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (FEBRUARY 7-11)

Watching for a possible storm system to impact the region with snow/mix/rain on February 7, departing by February 8 with windy/cold weather in its wake. Fair and still cold but more tranquil February 9-11 but another disturbance may pass not that far south of the region about February 10.

DAYS 11-15 (FEBRUARY 12-16)

Temperatures look a little more moderate heading into mid month. Next unsettled weather threat comes during the early and middle of this period, but this remains a low confidence forecast.

C-19 Chat Post – February 2 2021

DAYS 1-5 (FEBRUARY 1-5)

Welcome to February! We start the second month of 2021 off with a winter storm. The timing of the event has been slipping a little more to the earlier side with time, and we’ve already had some snow from the evolving system falling in parts of southern New England, even some minor accumulation, but it will continue to fight a dry air mass over the region and take several hours to really get going and make a solid push northward. At the same time, some ocean-effect snow showers may be drifting in from the east. Looking at the temperature profile this morning, with 30s over Cape Cod and 10s over interior southern New England, we’re probably already looking at the formation of a coastal front, probably a little further west than we typically see it. This will allow snow that falls over interior MA and northeastern CT and maybe northwestern RI, well as interior southern NH to be a little fluffier and pile up better, whereas snow that falls east of that boundary will be a wetter variety. We’ll have to monitor for where the exact set-up of this boundary is, but my best guess is the I-495 belt for the longest period of time. But, the east winds are occurring really over Cape Cod as of 7 a.m., with winds from the northeast or north elsewhere, so the boundary itself is probably setting up to the southeast of Boston initially before it migrates westward with time. I’m still expecting the strongest band of precipitation to push from south to north through the region from early afternoon to early evening in southern areas (CT, RI, southern MA) and later afternoon into late evening in areas to the north (central to northern MA into southern NH). I am not making any big changes to the snow amounts I posted yesterday, other than adding an inch or two and allowing for a little more fluff factor over inland areas, and of course the rain/snow line will be monitored as it certainly looks like it will be involved over Cape Cod and into parts of the MA South Shore, and then we’ll see how far it can get beyond that. It may never quite have enough push to get into or through the Boston area until after the heaviest precipitation has shut down anyway, so here is an updated run-down of my expected snowfall accumulation after we’re done with that main band of precipitation late tonight…

Up to 2 inches outer Cape Cod, 2-4 inches remainder of Cape Cod and immediate South Coast to the eastern side of Buzzards Bay and South Shore of MA up to Plymouth, as well as the upper part of Cape Ann MA, 4-8 inches immediate NH Seacoast to immediate North Shore of MA, Logan Airport, interior southeastern MA to Narragansett Bay, 8-12 inches most of RI and northeastern CT as well as south central MA northeastward through Metro Boston and up to northeastern MA and southeastern NH away from the immediate coast, and 12-16 inches north central MA through southwestern NH, highest amounts in the higher elevations. It’s important to keep in mind the sharp snowfall gradient expected in eastern areas and that on-the-fly adjustments may be needed as very subtle changes in the overall storm behavior leads to significant changes in snowfall amounts in these sharp gradient areas.

As far as coastal impact from the storm, we’ll have to keep an eye on the today’s afternoon high tide for some minor flooding in southern coastal MA and RI but not expecting a big issue, then minor to pockets of moderate coastal flooding with both high tide cycles Tuesday on east-facing and north-facing shores especially. And to summarize the power outage risk, it will be there, but I don’t expect widespread problems, since the areas with the greatest snow accumulation now look like they may have a little bit of a drier consistency to the snow at least to start out. However do expect enough sticky snow to fall in at least parts of the region for potential power disruptions. The strongest wind gusts being along the coast and especially Cape Cod may also contribute to some power outages there as well.

Looking ahead, we stay unsettled Tuesday with scattered rain/snow showers in a slightly milder atmosphere, before colder air sneaks back in on Wednesday and the energy from the original low pressure area comes across with the potential for some morning snow or snow showers, though that does not look like significant additional snowfall – more nuisance variety. The rest of Wednesday should turn dry, breezy, and chilly behind the departing complex storm system before high pressure moves in for a nice winter day on Thursday, allowing any remaining storm cleanup to finish up. By Friday, it’s back to unsettled weather, but this time its from low pressure passing northwest of New England. Its warm front may cause brief rain/mix/snow early before we warm up and see a risk of rain showers ahead of an approaching cold front.

TODAY: Overcast. Patchy light snow anywhere and a few snow showers off the ocean possible in eastern MA this morning. Steady snow arriving south to north from late morning through early afternoon across the entire area, may mix with rain quickly over Cape Cod. Highs ranging from near 20 in north central MA an southwestern NH to near 35 Cape Cod. Wind N to NE 5-15 MPH interior areas, NE to E increasing to 10-20 MPH coastal areas with higher gusts especially southeastern MA.

TONIGHT: Overcast. Moderate to heavy snow except mix coast and rain Cape Cod evening, tapering off to a few rain/snow showers south to north overnight. Temperatures rise to 27-34 except 35-42 coastal areas, warmest Cape Cod. Wind E to NE 10-20 MPH with gusts as high as 30 MPH inland, 15-25 MPH with gusts as high as 40 MPH coastal areas, except 25-35 MPH with gusts 50-60 MPH Cape Cod.

TUESDAY: Cloudy. Occasional rain & snow showers. Highs 35-42 morning, falling slightly in the afternoon. Wind NE to N 10-20 MPH with gusts to 30 MPH inland and 15-25 MPH with gusts to 40 MPH coastal areas except 45-55 MPH Cape Cod, especially in the morning and midday.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Additional mix/snow showers evening. Lows 25-32. Wind N to NW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy with a chance of light snow or snow showers morning. Partly sunny afternoon. Highs 33-40. Wind N to NW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 22-29. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 36-43. Wind NW 5-15 MPH becoming variable.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Increasing clouds. Lows 25-32.Wind variable to SE up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy. A touch of rain/mix/snow possible in the morning. Chance of rain showers in the afternoon. Highs 38-45. Wind SE up to 10 MPH morning, SW 10-20 MPH afternoon.

DAYS 6-10 (FEBRUARY 6-10)

Colder air moves back into the region during the February 6-7 weekend but not as cold as the air mass we are just getting rid of now, so while there is the chance of unsettled weather from 1 or 2 low pressure areas impacting the region through early February 8, the precipitation type and timing is indeterminate at this point and this forecast will be brought into focus over the next few days. Expecting fair and colder weather to return later February 8 through February 9 with a moderation in temperature by the end of the period when we’ll have to watch for a bit of unsettled weather.

DAYS 11-15 (FEBRUARY 11-15)

Temperatures look a little more moderate heading into mid month. Next unsettled weather threat comes during the middle of this period, but this remains a low confidence forecast with only vague ideas possible for now. More evaluation of the mid month pattern can be done after we get by the current storm.

C-19 Chat Post – February 1 2021

DAYS 1-5 (JANUARY 31- FEBRUARY 4)

The arctic air mass that has frozen us decently well over the last few days will be on the way out today, although it will still be a cold day, running below normal for the end of January. The high & mid level clouds you see in the sky are in advance of the coming winter storm that will impact the region later Monday through Tuesday, with greatest impact Monday night. This will happen as low pressure heads from the Ohio Valley to the northern Middle Atlantic Coast. This low never turn into a power house, but it will have an elongated center, first with a west-to-east orientation south of New England, then in response to upper level low pressure will rotate counterclockwise to more of a south-to-north orientation as it passes south and east of New England Monday through Tuesday, before moving away and organizing into a more formidable storm system in the Canadian Maritime Provinces on Wednesday. After that, high pressure will move in providing us with fair weather and not-too-cold air for Thursday.

Before I go to the detailed forecast here is an updated run-down of the aspects of the coming storm…

Arrival timing: Snow arrives south to north Monday afternoon but may be mixed with rain South Coast, Cape Cod, and MA South Shore.

Storm peak (heaviest precipitation): Monday night to very early Tuesday.

Snow amounts: Slushy under 1 inch tip of Cape Ann MA, immediate South Shore of MA south of Plymouth, Buzzards Bay region eastward through Cape Cod. 1-3 inches middle of Cape Ann MA, immediate MA South Shore south of Boston to Plymouth, southward just inland of the MA South Shore south of Plymouth to the western side of Buzzards Bay, 3-6 inches immediate NH Seacoast to immediate North Shore of MA, Logan Airport, interior southeastern MA to Narragansett Bay, 6-12 inches elsewhere with highest amounts in the I-495 belt west of Boston especially higher elevations.

Rain vs. snow: A rain/snow line will spend most of its time near the shoreline with southeastern MA especially Cape Cod in rain longest. This rain/snow line may migrate northwestward for a while during the storm, or even oscillate in response to precipitation intensity and is the reason for a very sharp snowfall gradient in the forecast. When you see this, there is a higher-than-usual potential that areas in this sharp gradient zone need a forecast adjustment.

Coastal impact: While not extremely strong, some significant and persistent onshore wind from the east and northeast, with some strong gusts across Cape Cod, then eventually more from the north, will probably result in minor to possibly moderate coastal flooding for the Monday afternoon, early Tuesday morning, and Tuesday afternoon high tides, with the greatest threat likely for the latter 2 high tide cycles.

Power outages: This will be a higher water content snow, so isolated to scattered power outages are possible, especially where snowfall accumulations are 4 or more inches. The stronger wind gusts along the coastline and especially over Cape Cod may also result in a few isolated power outages. Not expecting widespread power problems.

TODAY: Increasing clouds. Highs 25-32. Wind N under 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Thickening overcast.. Lows 15-22. Wind NE up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Overcast. Snow arriving south to north during the afternoon at least into the I-90 belt, may be mixed with rain South Coast / Cape Cod. Highs 26-33 except 33-40 South Coast / Cape Cod. Wind NE to E increasing to 10-20 MPH, higher gusts especially coastal areas by late-day.

MONDAY NIGHT: Overcast. Moderate to heavy snow except mix coast and rain Cape Cod evening, tapering off to a few rain/snow showers south to north overnight. Temperatures rise slightly to 28-35 except 35-42 coastal areas, warmest Cape Cod. Wind E to NE 10-20 MPH with gusts as high as 30 MPH inland, 15-25 MPH with gusts as high as 40 MPH coastal areas, except 25-35 MPH with gusts 50-60 MPH Cape Cod.

TUESDAY: Cloudy. Occasional rain & snow showers. Highs 35-42 morning, falling slightly in the afternoon. Wind NE to N 10-20 MPH with gusts to 30 MPH inland and 15-25 MPH with gusts to 40 MPH coastal areas except 45-55 MPH Cape Cod, especially in the morning and midday.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Additional mix/snow showers evening. Lows 25-32. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.

WEDNESDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 33-40. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 22-29. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 36-43. Wind NW 5-15 MPH becoming variable.

DAYS 6-10 (FEBRUARY 5-9)

Next low pressure area passes well north of the region on February 5 with a warm front / cold front combo meaning maybe a brief light mix then a chance of rain showers. Additional unsettled weather possible during the February 6-7 weekend and possibly February 8 as colder air from the west slowly makes its way toward this area. Too early for detail on precipitation chances at this time. Fair, colder weather to end this period.

DAYS 11-15 (FEBRUARY 10-14)

Temperatures start cold then moderate, unsettled weather threat mid to late period. Low confidence forecast with a lot of re-evaluation needed.

C-19 Chat Post – January 31 2021

DAYS 1-5 (JANUARY 30- FEBRUARY 3)

Before we get into talking about the upcoming storm, let’s talk about the cold that still has hold of us. Another day today of well below normal temperatures, but this time less wind, so it won’t feel as harsh as yesterday. We’ll also have nearly 100% sunshine, which is now just starting to be noticeably a bit higher in the sky during the day than it was in the darkest days of late November through early January. It’s subtle, but it’s there, now being light well into the 5:00 p.m. hour. If you’re an early riser you’ve noticed the same on the other end of the day – that morning twilight starting a little earlier. In fact, Boston experienced its first sunrise before 7:00 a.m. today, 1 minute before. While the sunsets there are just a few days away from reaching the 5:00 p.m. or later threshold, we will probably only see the sun go down one of the next 4 days – today. Tomorrow is about a 50/50 shot and will depend on how quickly high cloudiness advance ahead of the coming storm, and how much they thicken up. But since they will be coming from the direction we’d be looking to see sunset, this is reducing our odds of seeing Sunday’s sunset. When we get to Monday we’ll be under a thickening blanket of altostratus clouds as our storm, a redevelopment of an Ohio Valley low, starts to make a northeastward movement to the south of New England. So definitely no sunset visible that day, nor will it be visible on Tuesday, the first day it occurs 5:00 p.m. or later at Boston, as we will still be under complete influence of that storm system, which will not be out of here until Wednesday, when we will actually visibly see our first post-5:00 p.m. sunset (at least in most of the region, pending any post-storm passing cloudiness). Hey, how did I get to Wednesday’s weather without talking in as much detail as I could about the storm? Don’t worry. I didn’t forget. I was just saving that until the last part of this discussion. You’re not getting snowfall amounts out of me yet, but you may start to see those in the comments section of the blog from me as we get deeper into the day and I get to look over another set of model guidance to get a better idea of how they are handling the evolution of this system. The energy for this system just came onshore on the West Coast yesterday, and it was with today’s 00z model guidance that we finally started to get better sampling for model initialization, and from here on in, in theory, the guidance should be performing the best it can under current reduced air travel circumstances. As always, the models are guidance, one set of tools in the meteorological process – one I hope leads me to a fairly accurate prognostication of upcoming events. And here is what I think so far, followed by a detailed forecast….

Storm timing: Snow arrives south to north Monday afternoon.

Storm peak (heaviest precipitation): Monday night to very early Tuesday.

Snow amounts: No numbers yet, but highest chance for the most significant accumulation currently expected in the I-95 belt and/or I-495 belt.

Rain vs. snow: A rain/snow line will probably be involved in this storm, most likely limiting snowfall near the coast especially southeastern MA.

Coastal impact: While not extremely strong, some significant and persistent onshore wind from the northeast & east will probably result in minor to possibly moderate coastal flooding focused on the high tide in the early hours of Tuesday morning. A more northerly wind may cause minor flooding on north-facing shores for the Tuesday afternoon high tide.

Duration of storm: While I’m leaning toward the heaviest precipitation being Monday night, it should be lighter and more spotty (still with a possible rain/snow line involved) through Tuesday, but that does not mean some areas cannot see additional snow accumulation.

TODAY: Sunny. Highs 18-25. Wind NW 5-15 MPH gusting 20-25 MPH morning, diminishing in the afternoon. Wind chill below 10 at times.

TONIGHT: Clear. Lows 0-7 except 8-15 urban centers. Wind NW under 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Sunny start, variably cloudy finish. Highs 25-32. Wind N under 10 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: High overcast. Lows 15-22. Wind NE up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Thickening overcast. Snow arriving south to north during the afternoon at least into the I-90 belt, may be mixed with rain South Coast / Cape Cod. Highs 26-33 except 33-40 South Coast / Cape Cod. Wind NE increasing to 10-20 MPH, higher gusts especially coastal areas by late-day.

MONDAY NIGHT: Overcast. Snow, possibly heavy at times, with significant accumulation possible, except rain/mix South Coast and possibly South Shore of MA. Temperatures steady 26-33 interior areas and North Shore of MA to NH Seacoast, steady or rising slightly 34-41 coastal areas to the south. Wind NE to E 10-20 MPH except 15-25 MPH coastal areas with higher gusts.

TUESDAY: Overcast. Periods of snow northwest of Boston, snow/mix/rain Boston south. Temperatures generally steady 26–33 interior locations, NH Seacoast, and North Shore of MA and 34-41 coastal areas Boston southward. Wind E backing to N 10-20 MPH inland and 15-30 MPH coast with higher gusts.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Additional mix/snow showers evening. Lows 25-32. Wind N 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.

WEDNESDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 33-40. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.

DAYS 6-10 (FEBRUARY 4-8)

A shift in the large scale pattern as a plunge of arctic air enters the west central US and the East Coast moderates, meaning a milder trend for our area February 4-5. Next low pressure area travels well northwest of New England and its warm front / cold front combo brings a chance of some brief snow/mix/rain followed by rain showers sometime those two days. The February 6-8 period may see some additional unsettled weather with an active jet stream between very cold air to our northwest and milder air across the southeastern US.

DAYS 11-15 (FEBRUARY 9-13)

The cold air that moves into areas to our west and north will probably find its way to the Northeast with time, so expect colder weather for this period, probably starting out dry, but eventually ending up with a threat of unsettled weather by later in the period.

C-19 Chat Post – January 30 2021

DAYS 1-5 (JANUARY 29- FEBRUARY 2)

A frigid Friday for us as a large ocean storm pulls arctic air down out of Canada right across New England. Also, we have the snow threat for eastern areas as a result of a trough swinging around the back side of a large ocean storm. While this event will be short-lived, occurring from north to south over a 2 to 4 hour period this afternoon, it can produce some significant snowfall in a brief time, especially over Cape Cod, along with a lot of wind, so brief blizzard conditions may occur especially for the outer Cape which is likely to be in the heaviest of the snowfall combined with the steadiest/strongest wind. Other than a few additional ocean-effect flurries for Cape Cod tonight into early Saturday, by later today the snow threat is gone and it’s just cold and dry into the weekend, although the core of the cold will have departed and we’ll see an abatement of the wind as well. By Sunday, even though we’ll still be below freezing, it will feel mild in comparison to what we’ll be going through today. And then our attention turns to the early week storm threat. There is not all that much to say yet, other than the threat is there, and the timing for our area looks like later Monday night and Tuesday at this time. The potential is increase for a significant snowfall from this event, but it’s too early to know if a rain/snow line will be involved and far too early to really talk about snow amounts. These details will become clearer as we progress into and through the weekend. In the mean time, stay warm!

TODAY: Variably cloudy. A period of snow showers/squalls moving north to south across NH Seacoast and eastern MA this afternoon, heaviest Cape Cod, accumulations of a coating to 1 inch I-95 belt, 1-3 inches Cape Ann & MA South Shore, 3-6 inches Cape Cod. Highs 14-21. Wind N 15-25 MPH, higher gusts. Wind chill below zero at times.

TONIGHT: Clouds and additional snow showers Cape Cod, clear elsewhere. Lows 5-12. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts. Wind chill below zero.

SATURDAY: Sunny. Highs 18-25. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts. Wind chill occasionally below 10.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 0-7 except 8-15 urban centers. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, diminishing. Wind chill occasionally below zero.

SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 25-32. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Increasing high clouds. Lows 15-22. Wind N up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Thickening overcast. Highs 25-32. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Overcast. Snow arriving. Lows 20-27. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY: Overcast. Snow likely, mix/rain possible. Highs 28-35. Wind NE 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.

DAYS 6-10 (FEBRUARY 3-7)

Fair, breezy, briefly colder February 3 post-storm. Temperature moderation follows later next week with some unsettled weather returning in around mid period as the next low pressure area tracks north of the region, with drier/colder air following that.

DAYS 11-15 (FEBRUARY 8-12)

The overall pattern may quiet down but there remains a lot of uncertainty due to the questions surrounding the status of blocking, which should be much weaker. Will re-evaluate this period over the next few days.

C-19 Chat Post – January 29 2021