Monday February 1 2021 Forecast (7:45AM)

518 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (FEBRUARY 1-5)

Welcome to February! We start the second month of 2021 off with a winter storm. The timing of the event has been slipping a little more to the earlier side with time, and we’ve already had some snow from the evolving system falling in parts of southern New England, even some minor accumulation, but it will continue to fight a dry air mass over the region and take several hours to really get going and make a solid push northward. At the same time, some ocean-effect snow showers may be drifting in from the east. Looking at the temperature profile this morning, with 30s over Cape Cod and 10s over interior southern New England, we’re probably already looking at the formation of a coastal front, probably a little further west than we typically see it. This will allow snow that falls over interior MA and northeastern CT and maybe northwestern RI, well as interior southern NH to be a little fluffier and pile up better, whereas snow that falls east of that boundary will be a wetter variety. We’ll have to monitor for where the exact set-up of this boundary is, but my best guess is the I-495 belt for the longest period of time. But, the east winds are occurring really over Cape Cod as of 7 a.m., with winds from the northeast or north elsewhere, so the boundary itself is probably setting up to the southeast of Boston initially before it migrates westward with time. I’m still expecting the strongest band of precipitation to push from south to north through the region from early afternoon to early evening in southern areas (CT, RI, southern MA) and later afternoon into late evening in areas to the north (central to northern MA into southern NH). I am not making any big changes to the snow amounts I posted yesterday, other than adding an inch or two and allowing for a little more fluff factor over inland areas, and of course the rain/snow line will be monitored as it certainly looks like it will be involved over Cape Cod and into parts of the MA South Shore, and then we’ll see how far it can get beyond that. It may never quite have enough push to get into or through the Boston area until after the heaviest precipitation has shut down anyway, so here is an updated run-down of my expected snowfall accumulation after we’re done with that main band of precipitation late tonight…

Up to 2 inches outer Cape Cod, 2-4 inches remainder of Cape Cod and immediate South Coast to the eastern side of Buzzards Bay and South Shore of MA up to Plymouth, as well as the upper part of Cape Ann MA, 4-8 inches immediate NH Seacoast to immediate North Shore of MA, Logan Airport, interior southeastern MA to Narragansett Bay, 8-12 inches most of RI and northeastern CT as well as south central MA northeastward through Metro Boston and up to northeastern MA and southeastern NH away from the immediate coast, and 12-16 inches north central MA through southwestern NH, highest amounts in the higher elevations. It’s important to keep in mind the sharp snowfall gradient expected in eastern areas and that on-the-fly adjustments may be needed as very subtle changes in the overall storm behavior leads to significant changes in snowfall amounts in these sharp gradient areas.

As far as coastal impact from the storm, we’ll have to keep an eye on the today’s afternoon high tide for some minor flooding in southern coastal MA and RI but not expecting a big issue, then minor to pockets of moderate coastal flooding with both high tide cycles Tuesday on east-facing and north-facing shores especially. And to summarize the power outage risk, it will be there, but I don’t expect widespread problems, since the areas with the greatest snow accumulation now look like they may have a little bit of a drier consistency to the snow at least to start out. However do expect enough sticky snow to fall in at least parts of the region for potential power disruptions. The strongest wind gusts being along the coast and especially Cape Cod may also contribute to some power outages there as well.

Looking ahead, we stay unsettled Tuesday with scattered rain/snow showers in a slightly milder atmosphere, before colder air sneaks back in on Wednesday and the energy from the original low pressure area comes across with the potential for some morning snow or snow showers, though that does not look like significant additional snowfall – more nuisance variety. The rest of Wednesday should turn dry, breezy, and chilly behind the departing complex storm system before high pressure moves in for a nice winter day on Thursday, allowing any remaining storm cleanup to finish up. By Friday, it’s back to unsettled weather, but this time its from low pressure passing northwest of New England. Its warm front may cause brief rain/mix/snow early before we warm up and see a risk of rain showers ahead of an approaching cold front.

TODAY: Overcast. Patchy light snow anywhere and a few snow showers off the ocean possible in eastern MA this morning. Steady snow arriving south to north from late morning through early afternoon across the entire area, may mix with rain quickly over Cape Cod. Highs ranging from near 20 in north central MA an southwestern NH to near 35 Cape Cod. Wind N to NE 5-15 MPH interior areas, NE to E increasing to 10-20 MPH coastal areas with higher gusts especially southeastern MA.

TONIGHT: Overcast. Moderate to heavy snow except mix coast and rain Cape Cod evening, tapering off to a few rain/snow showers south to north overnight. Temperatures rise to 27-34 except 35-42 coastal areas, warmest Cape Cod. Wind E to NE 10-20 MPH with gusts as high as 30 MPH inland, 15-25 MPH with gusts as high as 40 MPH coastal areas, except 25-35 MPH with gusts 50-60 MPH Cape Cod.

TUESDAY: Cloudy. Occasional rain & snow showers. Highs 35-42 morning, falling slightly in the afternoon. Wind NE to N 10-20 MPH with gusts to 30 MPH inland and 15-25 MPH with gusts to 40 MPH coastal areas except 45-55 MPH Cape Cod, especially in the morning and midday.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Additional mix/snow showers evening. Lows 25-32. Wind N to NW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy with a chance of light snow or snow showers morning. Partly sunny afternoon. Highs 33-40. Wind N to NW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 22-29. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 36-43. Wind NW 5-15 MPH becoming variable.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Increasing clouds. Lows 25-32.Wind variable to SE up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy. A touch of rain/mix/snow possible in the morning. Chance of rain showers in the afternoon. Highs 38-45. Wind SE up to 10 MPH morning, SW 10-20 MPH afternoon.

DAYS 6-10 (FEBRUARY 6-10)

Colder air moves back into the region during the February 6-7 weekend but not as cold as the air mass we are just getting rid of now, so while there is the chance of unsettled weather from 1 or 2 low pressure areas impacting the region through early February 8, the precipitation type and timing is indeterminate at this point and this forecast will be brought into focus over the next few days. Expecting fair and colder weather to return later February 8 through February 9 with a moderation in temperature by the end of the period when we’ll have to watch for a bit of unsettled weather.

DAYS 11-15 (FEBRUARY 11-15)

Temperatures look a little more moderate heading into mid month. Next unsettled weather threat comes during the middle of this period, but this remains a low confidence forecast with only vague ideas possible for now. More evaluation of the mid month pattern can be done after we get by the current storm.

518 thoughts on “Monday February 1 2021 Forecast (7:45AM)”

  3. Good morning and thank you YK for another detailed discussion.

    Although I saw a few flakes earlier this morning, not seeing anything at the moment.

    Just about to kick into now casting. Of course will be looking
    at the 12Z guidance.

  4. Thanks TK !

    Looking forward to seeing what happens.

    February, yay ! Only 3.5 months of winter to go ………

    1. A weather event is always fun, but in the time we are in now, extra laughs are like gold. Thanks for those Tom.

    2. Thanks Dr. S. It appears that Ch. 4 has increased snow totals for Boston just a bit. Before I left this morning it was 4-8 inches. Now it’s 6-9”.

    3. All look pretty much the same as night, save for minor adjustments. All look reasonable. Looks like our Mets
      have done a decent job. Now let’s see if they verify.

    4. Lurker here and I just wanted to tell you how much I appreciate the time you take to put all the different totals forecast into one place. Between the blog and this, I think I’m covered.

  6. The Ch. 25 met last night mentioned the possibility NYC will get a “Top 10” snowstorm out of this.

    Hard to believe that NYC and Philly getting considerably more snow than Boston given the storm track just south of Nantucket. They get all snow and we get “snow to rain”. Go figure.

    At least JPD should be well satisfied. Either side of a foot for the JP neighborhood? 🙂

    2. Geography a bit and location relative to low pressure.

      2) NYC gets more of a NE to N wind, while Boston has more of an E or ENE wind due to location relative to the low.

      1) A NE wind in New York City is a land breeze, while in Boston, its off of the water.

  9. Can´t help but notice that all the down east Maine, as well as northern and central Maine continue to see small pressure RISES.

    This indicates a bridged bubble of high pressure still has a piece extending back to the northwest of Maine.

    Might be that small thing that keeps the immediate coast a tiny bit colder than modeled, since the bridged high will not have fully moved away.

    Also, inland temps in southern Maine and NH are very, very cold, so, I wouldn´t be shocked by that coastal front having some back and forth movements during the event that make some communities see sudden temp drops after having some time on the eastern side of the coastal front.

    1. But good ol’ Marshfield is already at 36F which is always a “snow killer” for Boston eventually. 😉

      1. Yes, after the last 3 days, it feels downright balmy down here.

        In fact, the roads are a bit wet, condensation I believe, from the above freezing, somewhat humid air, going over what are probably very cold pavement temperatures.

  10. Thanks, TK…

    Middleborough schools are working a half-day with dismissal at 11:30.

    Foxborough schools (where Mrs. Fantastic is a subsitute teacher) are being dismissed one hour early.

      1. Those dismissed students could run into the snow Tom do you think . Off to doctors soon & need to hustle into work after .

        1. They could. Hopefully, midday daytime brightness on the dark pavement can be somewhat effective up to 2 or 3pm to help everyone get a jump on the initial waves of snow.

      1. Mrs. Fantastic leaves at 1:25 and has to commute back to Taunton.

        I am nervous that the storm could be ramping up big time then.

        Rob Carolan said this morning that folks should be off the roads by noon.

          1. 2nd that and thanks to Mrs. Fantastic for being a substitute teacher !

            Wow, in a non-covid setting, a lot is thrown at them. Now, they also have so many other things on their plates.

            1. She is the only sub in her old middle school. She retired in June, 2019. She works every day.

    2. HRRR must have been quite high before, because I feel like I see purple (6 inches) all the way to the immediate coast on the south shore and to the Cape Bridges.

    1. Speaking of, I am still struggling to get used to the new NWS radar.

      I really miss the old one, especially today.

        1. My biggest struggles have been that it doesn´t fully load. I don´t know if that happens for everyone or its something about my computer.

          But, I´ll select the radar and multiple pieces of the region the radar covers never come in. Its not that its not precipitating, its like a rectangular panel or 2 are missing.

  14. Thanks TK
    The snow is coming down and so far it is the powdery snow which I hope it stays that way as it will be easier to move. It is looking like a foot or little more than a foot for my area which if that happens would be the second storm of the winter to produce that much snow.

  18. Thanks TK.

    2.1″ of snow here so far in Coventry CT. I consider this “bonus snow” at this point as I wasn’t really expecting much till after daybreak. Snowing lightly now and 25F. It’s a very light and powdery snow so far.

    Kids are on a remote learning snow day that ends about 12:30.

    1. Mark looking at some of the short range models CT looks much better in the snow department than it did a couple weeks ago.

      1. I was just looking at that some more.
        It may be a scale issue and which observation city is used.

        Pivotal I think has a number displayed for Boston while
        COD site has the number displayed for Bedford. I think that
        accounts for much of the discrepancy. However, looking very closely, I think there is still some, but not as glaring as the
        comparing 2 different locations.

        As an example, I’ll give you the 12Z NAM Kuchera Snow for Pivotal and College of Dupage and you be the judge.

        Pivotal

        https://m2.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/nam/2021020112/084/snku_acc.us_ne.png

        College of DuPage

        https://imgur.com/a/CcXxKsq

        Click on the above image to enlarge

  21. Thanks TK!
    JPD I just started using radar scope this summer on your recommendation and I can’t be more satisfied with that product. It is also my go to radar and I have a few to choose from. I like the relative velocity feature during severe weather to depict rotation, such a great tool. I find it really depicts the snow intensity using super- res reflectivity tilt 1.

  22. So where is the snow? This morning the tv mets kept touting the start time of 8-9 am for Boston. I thought to myself that timeframe was mighty early anyway.

    Dry air eating away at precip I suspect.

  25. AH CRAP!!! I spoke too soon.

    Logan’s wind has gone to just NE to ENE, I’d day 55 degrees.

    AND temperature has SHOT up to 32!

    3. Yup! Been 32 here in Sharon for the last hour. The longer that low sits and spins off the Delmarva, the more warm air gets ushered up here.

      1. Indeed. Ocean at 40.46 Degrees at Boston Buoy

        Once we get into the good snow, it will mitigate that quite a bit. I think even Logan can hover between 32 and 34 with
        higher intensity snow coming down. As long as the warmer
        air doesn’t get in at the 850mb level or any other level up
        there for that matter.

  30. The GFS looks PATHETIC!! It gets worse with each successive run!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

          1. You are a gentleman and a scholar. I’d love for this to verify but you know I’m no snow fan. And no way is this the solution… as much as I would like it to be.

            1. I agree. Well, let’s say that I highly doubt that
              this GFS solution will verify. Down your way, I think you will definitely get less snow than here and most especially West of here. 🙂

  33. Retrac if you like it now wait until you track severe thunderstorms with it. 🙂 we have a lot a weather today so this will be a great day to explore it’s features. Enjoy!!

        1. If you look at the RAW observation data you will see that the text on your display said NorthEast, but the raw
          data said 060 Degrees which is ENE. But 60 is better than 70, 80 or 90.

          000
          SAUS70 KWBC 011600 RRX
          MTRBOS
          METAR KBOS 011554Z 06022G27KT 10SM OVC027 01/M03 A3015 RMK AO2 PK WND
          06027/1553 SLP208 T00111033

    1. Saw that but again I think bulk of the heavy stuff is long gone by then. We get out 10-12 from now through 10 PM

      1. We’ll know soon enough.

        I’m just waiting for the snow and watch it pile up to see how much we can pull off before any changeover. 🙂

  39. I get my weather observations at the NWS page that updates every hour.

    11:00 am obs. NE 25G31

    Where do you get yours JPD?

  43. Mark northern NJ NYC area look to be the jackpot.
    When this is done I believe NY will lead Boston in the snowfall standings.

    1. He is reporting rain on the islands and someone replied to him mentioning rain in Chatham and maybe zigging into Cambridge. I just messaged so to see what it is doing around museum of science area. May or may not hear back since he is working.

  47. In central Marshfield, visibility coming down, it’s snowing lightly.

    In eastern Marshfield, visibility is excellent and it’s a light rain/snow mix.

  48. Jumped to 34 here in JP’s Neighborhood. Bummer!

    Snow better get going before it goes up anymore.

    Logan has been holding at 34 for some time now.

    DP 29

    Hoping we get to 31-32 once the snow gets going.

  54. OK, I got a steady light snow going on now.
    So it “should” snow from now until about 10PM to perhaps 1 or 2AM, depending on model guidance. So it is a question of how intense the snow will get and for how long.

  55. CT shoreline now getting crushed. 2″ in the last hour in Fairfield with 7″ on the ground and 30 mph wind gusts,

    Still just light snow/flurries here in Coventry after 2″ overnight. Up to 27F.

  56. IEMBot PHI
    @iembot_phi
    8m

    At 11:00 AM EST, Somerville [Somerset Co, NJ] TRAINED SPOTTER reports SNOW of 17.50 INCH. AVERAGE OF 3.6 INCHES PER HOUR PAST 2.5 HOURS.

  58. I’ll be reporting from home as the doctor pulled me out for the week & he put a brace on me . The temperature has me really suspect here . I guess we will see how much the south shore gets

    1. So you got your additional week out this week instead of last week. Maybe that’s a good thing…

      Thanks, as always, TK!

  60. Snow moving death band moving up from the Southcoast. Condition should continue to slowly deteriorate over the next 3 hours or so.

    1. It’s beginning to look serious here and we are no where near the good stuff. I think the wind makes it look more fierce than it is.

  62. 10:30 update from the NWS

    Some adjustments to temperatures this morning…cooler air
    holding on in Boston, a bit warmer on the Cape. Forecast is on
    track, with light to moderate snow ongoing on the islands and
    south coast of RI/MA. Snow reports so far are in the 1 to 2
    inch range in CT and should start to come in for areas further
    east soon. Radar shows heavier snow bands currently over Long
    Island and the NYC metro area with sfc obs indicating heavy snow
    and <1/4 mile vsbys (already seeing reports of 2"/hr snow
    there). Hi-res guidance has the heavy snow timing coming in
    right around when previously expected, perhaps an hour slower.
    Heaviest snow moves onshore noon-1PM, expanding north into the
    Boston metro area by around 3 PM. Forecast amounts remain
    unchanged.

  64. Quick break from weather. Old salty, my granddaughter just txtd me that heartland seasons 1-13 are now on Netflix. 14 is still airing in Canada so not on Netflix yet. I have yet to see 12 and 13. Not sure if you found them elsewhere and have already seen them

    1. No, I didn’t want to pay for them.

      I knew they were starting Feb. 1, so they are on my list.
      So happy she is enjoying the show.

      thank you

      1. Enjoying is putting it mildly. She has heartland tee shirts ans a heartland daily journal and everything heartland. It is fun to watch.

  66. We’re at 35 with dp 30. Waiting for that to come down a bit.
    Would like to see 32, but will accept 33. But I have no say!

  67. Home safety from school.

    In the school parking lot, it was 36 with big flakes and the snow was melting on contact.

    In the back roads of Taunton, it was 33 on the car thermometer and the snow was just starting to stick on the pavement.

    Winds picking up and snow intensity, as well.

    1. I’m really thinking Boston / points south come in on the lower & I could be wrong but I think the the changeover is going to be faster

      2. I think we need to worry about precip shutting off (dry slot) as the limiting factor before any changeover

    2. Tom what do you make of the temps high 30s all night according to weather bug . No 4-8 happening with those temps , no way !

      1. I think, out in your area, a few miles inland, that when that heavy band comes in, you may drop to 33F or 34F and then level out.

        How long that heavy precip continues over our area will determine how much wet snow you get.

        Then, as we dry slot later in the night, temps could climb to 35F-37F before leveling off again and slowly falling into the lower 30s again as the wind begins to back to NE and N.

        1. I’m not buying it Tom at all . I’m even wondering if the plows even make it out . That cold air certainly left in a hurry .

          1. True, the ocean can scour out the cold air pretty quickly.

            I do think the air above is cold enough that when that band that is probably an hour away, moves north, that it will still snow where you are, where it might rain here at the ocean´s edge.

            Could you get 2 inches of cement snow, sure that´s possible. I think 5, maybe 6 is still in the cards for you in a short 3 hr period.

  75. Snow just picked up in intensity here in Sharon after a nice gentle non accumulating snow since noon. Temp down to 32 after a high of 34, now holding steady, dp at 27. Snow starting to stick. Was hoping I had another hour or two to work without the kids but looks like pickup time

  76. 12z euro showing that mix fest for eastern area but I’m liking that pink spot over my area. 🙂

  78. Heaviest band is a tad bit more narrow than recently progged I’m noticing. Not sure what that means yet, if anything.

  79. Weather bug has pembroke now at 36 & remains that way most of the night until it jumps up to 37.

  80. First flakes. Literally, two big fat snowflakes, then it stopped.

    I am imagining this invisible shield of dry air vaporizing the snow and letting only a few escapees get down to ground. Bands of darker clouds both to the southeast, and swirling in from the north.

    TK, thanks for your forecast and for this blog. Storm Central!!

  81. I don’t see any lightning out of the intense band in western NJ has anyone seen any reports of thunder snow out of these intense bands?

  83. Not sure where the snow is going but it sure isn’t accumulating very fast. Definitely more intense now. Still what looks to be fine flakes.

  84. Still mostly light snow here but the heavier band appears to be knocking on our doorstep. Holding steady at 27F.

    1. We just popped up a degree to 26. Seems to now be ramping up. Daughter and SIL just came in from a curbside pickup at our farm and said back roads are pretty covered wind getting greasy as my dad would say.

  86. Sutton just called a full remote for tomorrow..,..unless there are power outages. I really wish they would call a snow day. Everyone needs a break and a few says are nothing.

    I’m betting I am not the only one in Sutton now wishing for a power outage now 🙂 🙂

    1. Hope that verifies Jimmy. I’m sure not getting a snowstorm here yet. Still waiting in fact for a dusting on the ground.

  88. These may be naive questions, but is there sort of a drop dead time when we know how this will play out or is it hour by hour all the way? Also is too early to know where the heaviest band will track. Thanks.

    1. It is way out there in the future but that would be something if two storms in a week delivered widespread double digit snowfall amounts. This brings back memories of 2011 here in CT with that six week snow blitz.

      1. Yep, long way to go but we are talking a 6 day threat here and the pattern looks ripe for something early next week with that big trough diving down in the east. All models look intriguing but things will need to come together just right.

  90. I am in the heavy band right now and it is moving from south to north in CT. 1/4 mile visibility for about an hour and wind gusts close to 35 mph hour so it will be interesting if where I am we reach blizzard criteria.

  91. Mark I am hoping you could get in on the action. A lot of reporting stations in CT showing 1/4 visibility.

  93. This is a NYC special, along with some other places to our west and southwest, but not a Boston bonanza. In fact, I’ll go further than that. I think it’s mostly a Boston flop. The temperature is 34F, wet surface even after some snow showers. I do think it’ll snow for a while but not all that intensely and then mix/ rain, and the snow will be less than 6 inches, probably around 4 near the coast in the city (a bit more in places like JP). There will be bigger amounts well inland to our southwest, west, and northwest. However, the coast just didn’t retain enough cold air. The heavier bands appear to be setting up further from the coast as well. And, I think the south coast won’t have much measurable snow at all.

    1. Actually bands look very good and orientation wise look like that the cost will do well. Temp will drop to around 31-31. We shall see

  96. 13.3 inches so far for NYC. They had 10.5 from the December storm so just a few more inches they will have above normal snowfall for the season. The winter forecast for NYC when it comes to snowfall is going to be a bust.

    1. Yep, lots of winter forecasts this year calling for dominant La Nina and SE Ridge not materializing so far, Let’s hope we can keep it rolling through February. So far the first 10 days of the month are looking POTENTIALLY pretty good!

  98. Ryan Hanrahan
    @ryanhanrahan
    22m

    Wow – 10.2″ of snow as of 1 p.m. from the official observer in Bridgeport!

  99. Finally picking up in intensity in a bit and looking more like a snowstorm here in Coventry CT. Moderate snow and wind. Dropped a degree to 26F.

  103. The 10-16 inches Ryan Hanrahan is calling for looks like it will happen for a lot of CT. I would not be surprised if some areas get 18 inches.

  105. 1:30 NWS update. Again not a busy before the storm even starts. How many live at Logan?

    Radar shows the initial band of heavy snow is moving onto the
    south coast of RI and MA early this afternoon as expected. This
    is resulting in obs showing heavy snow and <1/4 mile visibility
    at locations like Westerly and Newport. Temperatures along the
    south coast are in the 32-35 degree range, but with dewpoints 27
    to 32, there is room for dynamic cooling beneath this heavier
    snow, and accumulation should begin in earnest. Winds are coming
    up on schedule as well, gusting to 46 kts on Nantucket, 25 to 35
    kts on the outer Cape, and 25 to 30 kts on the north shore.

  106. Not sure what is going on here but the radar looks great overhead, like it should be ripping snow, but it’s coming down moderate at best. I would definitely not classify this as heavy snow. It’s blowing around more than anything. I have about 3″ so far. Most of that fell overnight! Beginning to wonder if the screw zone here in NC CT shown on many of the models is going to come to fruition.

    Not to sound like Dave, but I am NOT impressed so far!

    2. Mark, I was just typing that same thought. I look outside and its not snowing particularly heavy but according to the radar it should be heavier. If this is the case, we’re running out of time get get cranking. We’re counting on high rates to get our accumulations before this thing dry slots and shuts down tonight

      1. Not sure what is going on here, but dry air must be eating away at this in the mid levels. It’s definitely not a ratio thing as temp is only 27. Its a powdery snow.

  107. 34 here and snowing at a good intensity light snow. Not Moderate at this point, but beginning to accumulate. Nearing 1 inch on snow covered surfaces, about 1/2 inch on the walk, Nothing in the salt treated street.

  108. The timing of the arrival of the heavy snow keeps getting pushed up now saying 4 instead of 3 & rain line in the city around 10 . Could maybe underperform ?? Thoughts .

  109. I don’t want to be a kill joy here, but I am wondering if that nice band does what it has on so many other storms and that is go poof before it gets to the Boston Area. I have been watching it and so far so good. If we don’t get that, you can throw the snowfall projections out the window.

    2. That’s what I am seeing, too.

      Also, thermometer is stuck at 34F. I’m sure it can go down with dynamic cooling as Hadi suggested. But, until this point there’s little on the ground, save maybe a half inch. Pavements and streets are mostly wet, not snow-covered.

      Btw, Hadi and others I don’t think this storm is a bust by any means. In fact quite the opposite. I just believe that Boston will not be where the heavy action is, at least not coastal Boston.

  111. Ground is wet here in hingham. That’s all to report. It’s going how I was hoping it would go. Hope it continues.

  112. Definitely need a met to chime here on what the hell is going on. Just had what looked like a death band rotate over me and its nothing more than a glorified flizzard out there.

    Meanwhile areas just south of Hartford are reporting 6″ already.

    Typically snow shadowing shows up well on radar so its not that. Must be dry air still trying to eat away at this.

    Definitely need to lower my expectations for this storm unless things change in a hurry here….

    1. How can it be a bust if it was scheduled to start around 2-3 PM? Very well could bust, but we haven’t even had the storm yet? Not trying to be a jerk, but let’s wait a few hours. So if Logan gets 3 inches but JP/WR get a foot then it’s a bust?

    2. You do realize that I forecast most of the snow to fall there between late afternoon and late evening, correct?

      I expect that Logan airport will pick up around 4-in and the western part of the city up to twice that amount but most of it is going to fall over a 4-hour to 6-hour period that has not arrived yet.

      If those areas come in more than one inch below my expectation then I will declare it a bust for Boston but that is not going to happen until I no longer expect any accumulating snow to fall there.

    1. This is the thing with synoptic banding. Keep an eye on that band to the northwest of Boston that runs from Springfield up to near leominster. These are going to be your jackpot zones if the current trend continues. But it’s also very early in the game yet as I noted above.

  118. I have arrived back in Woburn as of 2:45 p.m. and the temperature here is 32. The cold air is not holding here at least for now. The early lead in the model battle goes to the GFS.

  122. What am I missing. I thought all along that this was the rough start time. I thought the rain snow line at or even in from the coast was going to be a bit of an unknown. I thought heaviest wasn’t supposed to be for another few hours.

    Was I reading I correctly?

    Even if I have been doing just that, I’m sure enjoying the beauty out there

    1. Further north yes, but down here we should have been pounding snow for a few hours by now. A healthy band just went through on the radar and did not deliver here at all. Yet I am seeing reports and pictures 10-20 miles from me here in CT of it ripping snow.

      Must be a subsidence zone over Tolland County or something but you typically see that on radar. I don’t get it but dry air seems to be winning the battle here.

        1. As far as I’m concerned things are pretty much right on track with my expectations.

          But I can only speak for my own expectations. 🙂

      1. On this one, I am thrilled.

        If it was a much colder storm, I´d be hoping for a lot of snow or if it had snow but less wind, I´d be hoping for a lot of snow.

        But wet snow and wind, no thanks. I´ve done the 3 to 4 day power outage before. Fun at first, by day 2 or 3, it stinks. Seeing your breath in your house is absolutely depressing.

  125. I am in between heavy snow bands. Still snowing at a good clip. Another one comin onto the CT shoreline and will see if it rotates up my way.

  128. Ryan Hanrahan
    @ryanhanrahan
    2m

    Looks like we have reached blizzard criteria in Waterbury and Bridgeport with 3 consecutive hours of heavy snow (visibility1/4 mile or less) and frequent wind gusts 35 mph or more.

    1. Ryan just upped the entire state to 10-18″ . Things will need to turn around in a hurry here if we are going to get anything close to the low end of that range.

  129. Measurement as of 3:00 p.m. at Woburn is 0.2 inch snow. We have light snow falling now and the temperature is sitting right at 32 here, approximately 10 degrees warmer than what the NAM forecast for me at this time. Wind is from the East but light.

    2. Wind is east here, too, in Back Bay. I’d say we have a grand total thus far of 0.4 inch. Nothing is sticking on the roadways. It’s 33.4F and snowing quite lightly.

      I’m sticking to my guns on this one, as I’ve been in the 4-5 inch prediction zone for several days, at least for the immediate coastal area in Boston. And I’d say pretty much nada in terms of snow from Pembroke to Nantucket.

      It’s fairly unusual for NYC to outperform Boston, but it does happen from time to time. 2010 was one of those years, and there have been others. I happen to love seeing the snow fall in Manhattan. Beautiful sight.

  130. Flurries continue to dance about in the wind here in Coventry CT 28F. Snowing at an average rate of a pathetic 0.2″/per hour for the last 15 hours.

    TK, please advise what the heck is going on here as I am getting more frustrated and hostile with each passing minute 🙂

    1. So far I feel that everything is going according to my expectation. I’m comfortable with my ranges posted above at the moment.

  134. 3 PM, Logan’s wind was at 050 degrees. I’d like to see that back a little more to so 40 or even 30 degrees.

  137. Ryan finally caught on to the subsidence zone parked over us here in NE CT.

    Unimpressive is an understatement!

    Ryan Hanrahan
    @ryanhanrahan
    16m

    A persistent area of lighter snow is resulting in unimpressive snow totals in northeastern Connecticut. In fact, got a report of only 2″ from Russ in Woodstock! Expect a zone of lighter amounts in parts of Tolland & Windham Counties. #nbcct

    https://twitter.com/ryanhanrahan/status/1356335320195870723?s=20

    1. NAM was too cold near the shoreline, even some distance inland. That’s already being proven at least for the early part of the storm. My temp was 20 F when I left for reading at 32F when I returned home just 7 hours later.

  139. Cornboy my friend I just saw your message from this morning! It went to moderation so I had to find and approve it.

    Woburn I still have in the 6-12 inch band and I’m comfortable with that. I’ll venture a guess of 9 to 11 for the city of Woooooobin when it’s all done. Synoptic banding doesn’t hold and it’s under that. I don’t think we’ll make it to 12.

    1. Thanks. Maybe I am sadistic, but I want a good storm. Since I spent 8 hours fixing my snowblower.

      Hope all is well!

    1. Glad. Send it here, please. It’s barely snowing at this point where I am. Temperature is holding steady at 33.2F.

  141. TK, don’t subsidence zones usually show up pretty well on radar? The radar does not look that bad over NE CT right now but I can tell you that it is barely doing anything here. I have literally had only about a half inch accumulation all afternoon.

    1. Usually, but sometimes if the drying is taking place underneath where the radar beam is, it’s deceiving.

  142. It is coming down pretty hard here in JP. Beginning to look like a storm. Heavy band is now expanding and looking good.

    temp 34, dp 32. Not sure the temp will drop any. We shall see.
    Gonna have to make hay at 34. It is sticking to Everything. Really looking Wintry out there.

        1. Sorry you are getting rain, but as you said, you are happy about that. I see Marshfield airport is at 37 degrees.

    2. Not often we get a big snow storm at 34 degrees, but I have seen it before. Here’s a hoping.

      TK what do you have for me in JP? 7-9 inches. Something like that?

  143. Logan’s wind has backed around to 040 degrees, which is 5 degrees North of due NE. Over the afternoon, it has backed 20 degrees. I see this as nothing but a GOOD sign for snow. I’d like to see it back a little bit more.

  144. I think it’s done here in pembroke it’s actually getting brighter . At least I will not need my driveway cleared as there is absolutely no way it will accumulate here , big disappointment but when I went out this morning with no jacket you could sense it was going to play out this way .

  148. Logan just dropped to 32. Here in JP dropped to 33.
    The effects of that wind backing is taking place.
    I think we stay snow for a good long time, at least until it
    warms aloft, and then perhaps some sleet instead of rain.

    1. Or it is simply the heavier snow doing its dynamic cooling or a combination of both. Either way, I’ll take it.

  152. Bit larger flakes here. Temp up to 28. 3.75. Kids are having a blast sledding. Nana is enjoying watching from the slider. Snowing a bit in the house too.

  153. 18Z GFS still says RAIN in Boston before 10PM AND it portrays MUCH lighter precipitation than ALL other models. Still at this late hour.

    1. Whatever they use for pre-treatment here in Woburn smells like soup stock and works AWESOME because I’ve had moderate snow for an hour now and the roads are just wet.

  155. Looks like channel 5 took an inch of the top as high mark now 15. 2 inches in Natick and temp has climbed to 30.

    1. If they showed you a map with tenths of inches it’s probably just a model run (my guess is NAM 18z).

  156. mix of rain and snow here in East Bridgewater. temp is 34. not really accumulating any more. only got about 1.5″

      1. I think they need to come down some for the city . Many places will verify & many will not but I’m not the professional. All in all not an easy job & I definitely tip my cap to all of them .

  159. A friend of mine in the PVD area is reporting sleet mixed with snow. This indicates some warming aloft now.

      1. According to the accumulations I’ve seen down there, it seems about on schedule.

        Radar trend: NW synoptic band seems to be intensifying while the SE band is very slightly weakening. Significant subsidence area continues in NE CT.

  160. It’s really coming down here. Cannot call it Heavy yet, but certainly Moderate snow. How many times when mets call for heavy snow or moderate to heavy snow do we really see heavy snow??? We really don’t see heavy snow all that often. To be sure we have, but so far today, at least at my location, NO HEAVY SNOW!

    1. I equate true heavy snow to meeting severe thunderstorm criteria in summer. We get watches and warnings but very rarely do we reach severe

  163. This is hands down the WORST subsidence area I have ever been in. How when the bands are rotating in from SE to NW does it stay parked in the same area the ENTIRE day! I literally have not accumulated more than inch the entire afternoon while the rest of the State is getting CRUSHED. Approaching 18″ now in several locations along the shoreline and in western CT.

    1. 3.5″ total so far, 2″ of that occurred overnight and 1.5″ during the dat today. Still flurrying and up to 29F

    2. I had that bulls**t last time. Totally sucks

      On Radar it looks like a damn black hole sucking in the universe.

      1. what radar are you looking at? I don’t see it on the “My Radar” app I am using. Makes it look like it should be snowing pretty good.

  164. What’s worse is the radar is showing it is ripping snow overhead again!

    Well at least I should be able to clear the driveway in about 10 min with the leaf blower .

  165. I am up to 9 inches and with the rate of the snow falling I should have no problem reaching a foot of snow.

  166. Rain is awfully close. We are holding onto snow and even though it is 33, it looks like it wants to RAIN!

  168. Based on what I can tell the warming aloft is advancing fairly steadily. NBC’s in-house model (which isn’t too bad, actually) has sleet/rain moving into Metro Boston in a couple hours and progressing quite a distance to the NW with time as the precip tapers off. Been snowing pretty good here for nearly 2 hours now but I can’t say that the rate here is insane. I’ll be right back with an official measurement…

  170. About 3 inches so far in the kingdom of Chelmsford, coming down moderate, no wind to speak of. Thus ends my report.

      1. You have to have an account on youtube then all you do is click subscribe then activate the notification bell.

        1. Ok thanks . I’ll look into it . Ace posted yesterday & I enjoyed the presentation I always liked him .

  173. 1.7 inch snow so far in Woburn. Wind has picked up a bit. Radar indicates it should be snowing heavier than it is – but .. it’s not. Moderate snow.

    1. Aint that the truth!

      I can at least say that I think the snow intensity here is more on the moderate side now. But definitely not heavy,

        1. For me in NE CT, the issue has been snow intensity not rain/snow line. But yes, in Metro Boston, the issue the next few hours is going to be advancement of that R/S line NW.

  174. NWS discussion on the Superbowl Sunday storm threat:

    Then Sunday high amplitude ridge over the Eastern Pacific into Western Canada, forces a piece of the polar vortex to descend into the Great Lakes and OH Valley. Operational EC has a very intense coastal low (sub 970 mb) becoming an inside runner Sunday. The EC ensembles show large spread here with the mean tracking closer to the benchmark. GFS and CMC
    ensembles not as bullish but all agree on arctic short wave/front entering the Great Lakes/OH Valley. Thus lots of uncertainty but potential is there given evolving high amplitude pattern.

  176. Mostly wet on streets and pavement. It’s never been a heavy snow in the city, not in Back Bay at least. I don’t think we’ll even get to 4 inches. And even that will melt and be compacted so in the morning it’ll look like much less. On to the next storm.

  178. Tk could you please explain to me why just now Harvey puts out still snow map for my area . I am scrambling trying to figure this out .

    1. He actually has a snow map for the entire area – as they have to, because the storm is in progress. My advice is to email Harvey. He can definitely answer a question about what he does better than I can. I am controlling my forecast – not anyone else’s. I’m sure Harvey will be glad to explain his reasoning. 🙂 I can guess though: Half of your town is snowing and the other half is raining as of 5:45PM. We did say that there would be a very sharp gradient near the coast and a very high potential that things don’t quite work out the way they were shown on maps. This is why during-storm adjustments are often necessary.

      1. I actually emailed mike both last night & this afternoon with no response . I’ve also messaged Harvey a few times with no response which I found odd . I do not know about half the town snowing as that’s not what I’m hearing from friends & neighbors. Appreciate your response . But the point is at 6:00 to be still having a good slug of snow down this way I find that to be misleading . It’s just my opinion & you know I like Harvey it’s not saying anything bad .

          1. Exactly. Do you have Twitter. If not, maybe sign up. It is pretty simple once you figure it out. Pete often resounds to me on Twitter. Eric has a couple of times

            1. Vicki I sent mike a response last night I believe it was Twitter & today a private message not on Twitter .

      2. Well said. We have had rain here several times with snow or ice in the center. I’ve mentioned it often.

  179. I just saw a plow go down Beacon Street, but it was tearing up the road more than plowing. That was unnecessary.

  180. Looking at the radar, it appears we’re in a prolonged heavy band. The temperature has stayed consistently 33 degrees since 12:30!

    1. Eric commented to a question about a heavy band sound of here on Twitter earlier. He said that was pretty much the storm. I wonder if this is the band since we have really picked up.

    2. We are holding at 28 in south Sutton. I’d be surprised if toward Sutton center is not a couple of degrees colder

  182. Uxbridge had a full remote today but cancelled for tomorrow. Come on Sutton!!!!!!

    That said, our superintendent has done a phenomenal job weeding the way through covid, so I really only have great things to say. And I need to add every single member of education staff and the school committee.

    1. WRSD superintendent canceled for tomorrow and said for the kids to take advantage of the New England winter if they can. I thought that was really cool.

  183. Rain mixed with snowflakes/snowflakes mixed with rain here at home (Dorchester).

    Que sera, sera… 🙁

    Game over??

  184. Hey mark has your intensity picked up at all. It sucks that you’ve been dry slotted most of the storm. I’ve been on the extreme edge of the dry slot to my south and have had mostly mod to occasionally heavy snow, however 5 miles south of here is what your experiencing. Although I went through a couple of short lived dry slots that seemed to fill in over my head. What a bummer.

    2. Most real map is the NWS map.

      We’re barely hanging onto snow in JP. Expect rain at any moment. Still at 33 here. Perhaps 2-3 inches of paste has accumulated at a ratio or 3 or 4 to 1 I would guess. I mean this stuff is SLOP!!

      I am NOT Impressed in the slightest little bit over this gigantic let down of a useless storm.

  189. SC – yes, finally got into the good stuff here, of course right when I went out to shovel! Heavy snow and blizzard conditions at times. I’d say we are at 6” now but hard to measure with the wind. Driveway was literally down to 2” in spots and up to 8” in others

  190. Going out for shoveling round #1 of 2. Will report a measurement (so far) when I’m done with that round.

  191. 8” but suspect wind it taking some. My area to measure is fairly well protected. But I opened the slider to go out to measure and the wind blew an inch into the house.

  194. It’s been wild here for a couple of hours. 4.5″ of snow. Temp dropped a smidge to 32.5.

  196. My Dad measured an average of 11 inches about an hour ago at Billerica Ma. He said once he hit 128 this evening you couldn’t see 3 feet in front of you. Said worst conditions he has seen in 2 years.

  198. It’s not just the snow that is coming down at a good clip where I am but the wind is the strongest its been all day.

      1. Lol. It’s Cornboy. :). TK and I go way back. Don’t talk too much now, but waaaaaay back. Thanks for the welcome. Seems like a pretty good groups here.

  200. Just about 7 inches in North Reading…I took the kids out at 530 and there was 3 inches and now 7…snowing at a pretty good clip, temp 32

  201. Great to hear mark. Looks like some more heavier bands blossoming to our south. We could be in this for a little while longer and maybe play catch up. I understand that no two storms are alike, but it’s frustrating to be dry slotted when there are walls of precip all around you and they just can’t penetrate the dry zone wherever that may set up on any given storm. You just pay it isn’t over you if you are a lover of snow. As for me here I’m at 6 1/2” and snowing heavily now with temp of 28 degrees and very gusty 25 to 30 mph

  204. Huh, wtf????

    Raining in Marshfield and several miles to the South it is SNOWING in Plymouth according to NWS obs

    Plymouth, Plymouth Municipal Airport, MA
    (KPYM) 41.90861N 70.72806W
    2 Day History

    Last Updated: Feb 1 2021, 7:52 pm EST
    Mon, 01 Feb 2021 19:52:00 -0500
    Weather: Light Snow Fog/Mist and Breezy
    Temperature: 35.0 °F (1.7 °C)
    Dewpoint: 34.0 °F (1.1 °C)
    Relative Humidity: 96 %
    Wind: from the Northeast at 20.7 gusting to 38.0 MPH (18 gusting to 33 KT)
    Wind Chill: 24 F (-4 C)
    Visibility: 4.00 miles
    MSL Pressure: 1007.9 mb

  206. It’s snowing here in pembroke I expect maybe some to stick if it continues but I am not expecting much at all . I will monitor the changes .

  207. About 10 in Andover, coming down hard. Just did a 2nd clean up, between periods, about 6 or 7 in with my Toro battery powered snow thrower, did an outstanding job. Great snow for it, love it.

  209. For those of us at the coast, too bad this high wasnt sitting north of us.

    Barrow, AK´s current pressure is 1050.1 mb or 31.00 inches !!!!!!

    oh and its -25F, with a dp of -32F and an east wind at 9 mph for a wind chill of -46F.

  210. DB, Fox, cowboy and Ceterias. And I sincerely apologize if I missed new folks. Soooo many comments

    Welcome.

    Ceterias….do you know a Rickley or Marotoli family in N reading. Odd are no but thought I’d ask

      1. Snowing at a good clip. Flipped to all snow. Around 4-5 inches but a bunch got soaked so looks like 3 inches.

  213. 5.5 and still snowing in Woburn.
    The snow is very sticky but it is not very heavy (water laden). It’s rather light. Absolute winter wonderland here.

    1. I always end up with 2-3 inches more that most in Woburn. I mean I’m higher but not talking mountains. I’ll get Good measurement when I got out at 10 for first removal pass.

  216. I had meetings from 5:30 to 9 p.m. just brought the dog out and we are absolutely getting pounded right in Amesbury. Slow start, but lots of fury now.

  217. Just a very light coating of slush here in Hingham near the ocean. Outside you can see both flakes and rain. Story of the storm for us.

  220. Snowing very hard in jp. We’re at eastern edge of big band just westvof the city. Paste falling from the sky.

  221. 6+ in Westwood in moderate snow. Evidence of dry slotting coming up from the south. May be able to top coat another couple of inches to bring snow total to 8+ – lower end of the range. Not bad but was more impressed with the recent wind gusts than I ever was with snow intensity. A few miles and a couple of degrees was the difference here. All in all well forecasted for most.

    1. I see that dry slot….heading this way also. A bit late to the party but mentioned last night. So far for here, it has gone exactly as I thought I’d heard. A foot is awesome. Any more tonight is icing on the cake

  223. Nice little storm in Natick. Snow days for all of us (representing 3 different towns in the 128 belt) tomorrow , so no complaints!

    1. Awesome. Still not Sutton but then with the supers handling of covid and the amazing job our school staff has done, I’m not complaining. Although, I wish the staff had the day. My grands will have it as long as they get assigned work done

  225. According to Mark Rosenthal, there is a lot of arctic air that will be spilling in here over the next few weeks. He believes that February will be quite interesting. He also mentioned aka the “polar vortex”.

    Do you agree with this TK?

    1. Cant speak for TK but the pattern on the models looks pretty interesting the next few weeks…active with a decent amount of cold air around. Euro weeklies look pretty cold right through the end of February as well. We will have more chances this month for sure, starting with this weekend.

  226. Still snowing lightly here in Coventry CT but dry slot fast approaching. I reported 8″ of snow to the NWS. Perhaps a bit generous with all the blowing but I measured in several spots.
    Temp up to 31F. Finally got into some heavy snow and occasional whiteout conditions for a few hours this evening which was fun.

    Feeling better now but still frustrating to see towns a mere 15-20 miles to my southwest and northeast getting pummeled with 12-16″ of snow. A few of those short range models really nailed the dry slot that set up over us in much of NC/NE CT.

    1. Or head to sleep. Who the hews know.

      Sleep well all..enjoy. Tk. Awesome job. Thank you. And thank you to every single person here.

  235. So, I keep looking at the radar and it looks like the rain line is north west of me. Why am I still getting snow. Temp is 35F

  237. That 30” report in Mendham NJ, which I believe is the highest for the storm so far, is in my office’s CWA. We may end up seeing some higher reports trickle in especially as we add a little more on tomorrow. Needless to say, busy times down here. Much less where I am though, just over 6” for the entire event so far with maybe another 1-3 to come by this time tomorrow.

  239. Just got in from the second round of shoveling.
    Shoveled 5 in of sticky but lightweight snow in round one. Shoveled 4 inches of much wetter heavier snow in round 2. During the second round outside the snow turned to sleet. accounting for settling and taking into account my measurements I am calling this 9.5 inches on Woods Hill in Woburn. That would fall right in the range I had for my area. Not sure how everything else verified but first glance it looks pretty decent. anyway because it’s in the process of dying. Once again we got lucky. It missed the power lines and it missed the cable lines. Just had to move it a little bit off part of the sidewalk. It probably weighed about 400 lbs. Nate and I were able to slide it over just enough to get it off the sidewalk.

    1. Outstanding job with this forecast TK! And just caught up on the day’s chat – from my layman’s eyes just based on the huge variations in accumulations from town to town even those proximate- not an easy one to peg, I assume?

      Thank you as always for everything- mad met skills, blog creation/moderation & super belated ty for answering my question in the early am – no rest for the (.us) wicked, right?

  240. Per Boston tide guage, 3.26 ft storm surge in Boston harbor turned a 10 ft tide to a 13 ft+ tide around 2 am this morning.

    Alternate bus stop schedule for Brant rock this morning.

  243. My Dad measured an average 17 inches at 1am last night at Billerica, he will let me know how much they got when he wakes up. I’m jealous. One of the largest snow totals in my area since 2 years ago if they hit 19 inches

  244. New weather post! I picked up a tad more overnight so will report a final right after I measure it.

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