Thursday February 4 2021 Forecast (7:24AM)

162 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (FEBRUARY 4-8)

Upper level low pressure hung around overnight with a few more snow showers, adding another dusting or coating of snow to some locations. Now, it’s moving out and after a lot of clouds to start we’ll get a break in the unsettled weather as a sliver of high pressure moves in to bring some sun today, but that won’t last long as another low heads for the St. Lawrence Valley on Friday and its trailing frontal systems combine to bring us more precipitation, starting out as snow with a minor accumulation in southern NH and perhaps parts of adjacent northern MA, with rain elsewhere, then rain in all areas as the day goes on. This exits at night and is replaced by dry and colder weather Saturday. Next, 2 systems will fail to phase as they move by the region on Sunday, a southern stream one passing well to the south of New England early Sunday while a northern stream system heads into the region with its cold front later in the day, perhaps with a snow shower or squall, reinforcing the cold air for Monday when we may have another system rapidly approaching by the end of the day from the west in a fast-flowing jet stream.

TODAY: Lots of clouds and a lingering snow flurry possible, then sunshine. Highs 36-43. Wind NW 5-15 MPH becoming variable under 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Increasing clouds. Lows 25-32.Wind variable to SE up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Cloudy. A period of rain south and mix/snow northern MA and southern NH with accumulation of up to but mostly less than 1 inch, then numerous rain showers in all areas during the afternoon. Highs 38-45. Wind SE up to 10 MPH morning, SW 10-20 MPH afternoon.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Lows 22-29. Wind W 10-20 MPH. Watch for black ice formation!

SATURDAY: Partly cloudy. Highs 32-39. Wind W 10-20 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 18-25. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY: Variably cloudy. A few snow showers possible and a risk of a heavier snow squall later in the day. Highs 30-37. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Lows 15-22. Wind NW 10-20 MPH.

MONDAY: Sun followed by clouds. Snow possible at night. Highs 28-35. Wind NW 10-20 MPH morning, variable 5-15 MPH afternoon.

DAYS 6-10 (FEBRUARY 9-13)

This period looks colder and mostly dry with a storm track to the south of the region.

DAYS 11-15 (FEBRUARY 14-18)

This period looks a little less cold but with a more active and unsettled pattern for our area.

162 thoughts on “Thursday February 4 2021 Forecast (7:24AM)”

    1. True snow is the opposite of false snow – the snow they spread around when they film another gangster movie set in Boston during the winter but the ground is clear.

  3. I took a better look. We received a good 1/4 inch coating over night. Really looks beautiful out there.

          1. Euro EPS mean is farther SE and somewhat more interesting for Tuesday. I think what happens with the Sunday system will impact Tuesday. Either way, Tuesday doesn’t look like a big deal.

  7. Thanks, TK!

    Tom, someone upstairs heard you. I think we had the perfect snow overnight. There were flakes every time I woke up and yet not one stuck. Beautiful without interfering with travel and vaccine schedules.

  8. Thanks TK.

    Had a dusting here each of the last two mornings as well.

    We can joke about the ICON but the 6z GFS and 6z EPS have made a big jump back NW for the Sunday system.

    6z Euro EPS ensemble mean….

    https://www.americanwx.com/bb/uploads/monthly_2021_02/eps_mslp_lows_conus_90.png.2e7e30ecd79b96dde5318f771708d58a.png

    Do we have some fresh squeezed lemonade in the works after all?

    Either way, this system will be hauling so doesn’t look like a huge deal even if we get clipped.

    1. I LOVE lemonade, most especially on a hot day. May be my
      most favorite beverage of all time, except perhaps for a really good vanilla Frappe, or shake or cabinet depending on one’s location. 🙂

      1. Here is where TK or JMA chimes in to say, NAM at 84 hours??? You gotta be kidding me! Toss it! It’s confused! Sunday will be a fish storm. Get over it!

            1. I definitely wouldn’t have added the get over it part. Nor am I 100% convinced it’s totally out to sea.

              We can still be clipped by the southern stream system if it has enough moisture on its northern side even if the northern and southern streams do not phase.

              We are not going to get a major snowstorm on Sunday though.

            2. I told you yesterday about dismissing these storms to early old salty as we saw one winter here where they went poof & came back to get us . I’m not saying that’s the case here yet .

  15. Thank you, TK.

    Sunday’s `lemonade’ storm is looking a bit more interesting, though it’s likely going to be another one for the fishes.

    Speaking of lemonade I like it to. It’s my go-to drink on hot, summer days.

    Looks like a once every 20 years event is going to happen in the Netherlands. You may recall I’d been talking about a Scandinavian high and the chance of snow in England. Well, the models have shifted a bit with respect to the area of low pressure. It’s very unusual for lows to approach the Netherlands from the south. It’s usually southwest, west, or northwest. With the high positioned due north, the storm will be a significant snow maker – about 8 inches is forecast. That is uncommon in Holland. It’ll be followed by 4 days of sunny and very cold weather (teens and 20s during the day). Hopefully the high remains stationary for another week, as that would boost the chances for an 11 cities tour – ice skating event that happens once every 30 years. People skate from town to town on the canals.

  17. I been hesitant to call of the weekend system. Yeah its not going to be anything like what it was showing last weekend, at least the way it looks right now but the GFS , NAM, ICON all shifting north. and though we do not have the 12 euro yet I did look at the 6z and it has become more aplified and further north. Not as north as the GFS,NAM and Icon but further north. So there is a clear trend at least today sending it further north. I wouldn’t call of the storm. If my memory serves me right there are many times in which the euro shows a storm, then looses it in the 4 to 7 day period just for it to reappear.

  18. Thanks TK!

    I don’t buy the north shift with the weekend storm at this point. I think it ends up south. Definitely not gonna go all in on one or two runs. Noticed the 12z ICON, which had been further west, shifted east, and the RGEM remains wayyyy OTS.

  19. 12Z ICON has slipped South of the 6Z run, thus starting its new trend of OTS. 🙂 🙂

    Wonder what the Euro will have? A system on an approach to
    Bermuda! That is my go to slam.

  20. Even if the southern stream energy clips the area, temps will be too marginal to result in any meaningful snow for the majority of the area. We really need a phased system to experience significant snow which doesn’t appear to happen in time, if at all.

    2. 850mb temps look fine and surface temps are 32 or below for most of the region so I don’t really agree that lighter precip wouldn’t accumulate this time of year.

      But yes, without a phased system, and given the quick speed of this storm, a significant 6″+ snow will be hard to come by even if the track continues to trend closer.

  21. The CMC/RGEM combo had an atrocious performance on that last storm, even within 36 hours out. Not sure I would put too much stock in them right now.

    12z ICON isn’t stellar either, but looks a lot like the 12z GFS now. A sideswipe with a period of light snow is plausible solution at this point.

      1. Ahh, didnt look at the 6z GEFS. Last run of the ensembles I looked at was 0z and the shift from yesterday’s runs to this morning’s runs was noticeably NW.

        1. North of 0z for sure. And the mean position of the 12z is about the same as the 06z because there are also fewer southeastern outliers (i.e., better consensus). But I’ve seen this look before, and to see those northwestern outliers disappear is a major red flag. It has all the makings of a head fake to me.

    2. Some of those members closer to the shore are pretty strong too…down into the 970’s and 980’s mb range. Muy interesente.

  25. Want another red flag? The mean position is about the same as 06z, but many fewer northwest outliers in the 12z GEFS. This is going to shift back southeast. Meteorology, not models.

    2. If you are wanting a period of snow Sunday, the 12z GEFS looks better than 6z to me. Much less spread and the spread is NW of the mean.

      You are probably right in your assessment and I am definitely not saying this is going to be a big hit, but there is enough uncertainty to keep me interested 🙂

      1. Always appreciate your thoughts and enthusiasm! I’ll certainly be watching as well.

        Prediction for the 12z Euro: north of 0z but probably about the same as 06z (similar to what happened with the 0z vs 12z UKMET). This to me would be another indicator that the “north trend” is about to reverse…

    1. Indeed, this is a very risky time of year to be skiing there as well, especially with all the recent snow up there.

  27. If there are some hints that the arctic air is going to be delayed coming into the east, than that seems to me to indirectly imply that the Sunday storm will come closer to New England.

    What is keeping the arctic air from blasting into the eastern US is probably a jet stream that is more parallel to the coast, then just screaming west to east.

  29. A met just posted this on AmericanWx but really shows how inconsistent/confused the Euro has been lately:

    Last 3 runs of the Euro with a massive shift NW:

    https://www.americanwx.com/bb/uploads/monthly_2021_02/trend-ecmwf_full-2021020412-f078.prateptype_cat_ecmwf.conus.gif.ab57730c3f85225a9a614d02d71fb718.gif

    Last 3 runs of the GFSv16 with small ticks NW:

    https://www.americanwx.com/bb/uploads/monthly_2021_02/trend-gfs_para-2021020412-f078.prateptype_cat.conus.gif.a1c89dec7c54cc26041d0f36dd2dffcd.gif

  31. I think the changes are occuring because the medium range setup of high pressure west of Greenland, under which a piece of the polar vortex settles ……. how that sets up has major implications for how the 500 mb flow will be across the US.

    Slightly different locations and amplitude of these features then have a big effect on where the disturbances in the flow travel.

    Though it hasn´t shown, LA Nina´s tend to have SE ridges associated with them.

    Thus, I would favor the arctic air and its associated deep trof to back a bit into west central Canada and a more WSW or SW flow aloft along the east coast. I think the Sunday disturbance a few disturbances after that will have the chance to parallel the coast and provide us with snow/rain opportunities.

    1. Great points Tom. We are just battling a very progressive flow here. Will definitely be interesting to see how this shakes out.

      1. Of course if the French create Weather models like they do automobiles, you can toss it in the garbage. I speak from experience because I once owned a brand new Peugeot.
        It was a beautiful looking vehicle with 5 on floor with turbo.
        I loved it when it worked. The thing choked to death in cold weather like you wouldn’t believe and then the damn battery
        blew up while my wife and I were sitting in the car. I thought the hood was going to tear off and fly in the air.

        Get the idea.

  33. After a review of the 12z set…. There will be no changes made to the discussion posted this morning.

  34. GFS is adamant about temperature departures of -35 to -45F when that arctic air reaches the northern Rockies & Plains.

    Some of these weather maps are starting to remind me of the 1980s. This entire winter so far has had a late 70s & 80s vibe to it.

  35. How did the ECMWF become nearly as bad as the Canadian? Wow….

    Let’s replace high pressure with low pressure over the course of TWO runs! Alrighty then!

    1. the weaker and further south don’t have phasing going on if I understand the ensembles. Yes I am procrastinating and not working on what I should. 😛

    2. From past experience the strong members nearer the coast are big boo-boos. This skews the mean. Toss the known crap runs and the mean would shift way SE. Knowing the EPS & Euro in general has been worth about as much as the scum water at the bottom of a dumpster, I feel this is a pretty easy toss.

  38. TK, I think we’re probably thinking along the same lines here. I just don’t see it. Obviously the phased solution is off the table and it’s all up to the southern stream. Those can get us occasionally, but usually when a front is nearby offshore. We have a front coming through tomorrow but it’s blasting east. Should never speak in absolutes but I’d be real surprised if this spreads steady precip into the coastal plain.

    Theoretically, given the lack of a high to the north, even if precip does get into the coastal plain I’d bet on the thermal profiles being more marginal than modeled in the unlikely event it does end up closer…

    1. We are indeed thinking the same way. Thank you for your thoughts on the situation…

      What do you think about that arctic invasion heading into the US soon? It’s kind of a slow-motion invasion if you know what I mean.

      1. That is a tough one, and I don’t think I have a great feel for it. I’m not a big fan of “slow motion” invasions though. Pure Arctic air like that in our latitudes can’t stay Arctic forever. I wonder if it ends up really cold to our west but we get either a shorter duration and/or watered down cold shot towards next weekend. Maybe the Southeast ridge gets a bit of revenge after all (though it definitely doesn’t look “winter warm”). Would seem to make a bit more sense with the MJO, which is now becoming quite amplified. But I also don’t think we hold off the colder air forever, and similar to what you’ve said, maybe it’s the second half of the month that we should really be watching…

        1. From the original definition, since I created it:

          An Extreme Hype Watch is issued when conditions are favorable for media hype of an event to reach extreme levels within the next 48-72 hours. If conditions warrant, a Hype Advisory or Extreme Hype Warning will be issued as the event draws nearer.

          It’s still 72 hours away, so if anything it would only be a watch. However, this doesn’t even rise to that level yet. If all of the models were showing this, then maybe.

          Trying to use the same joke over and over, especially when it’s not warranted, makes it not funny any more. Next you’ll take a sharpie to the map and include snow farther north.

          2. Nah, if all the models were showing this, then it would be reality, not hype 🙂

            The sharpie map? Good idea.

  42. 35-35.

    Ryan Siccop set to try to kick the game winning FG for Tampa Bay. 46 yds

    Tom Brady has driven the Bucs 47 yards in the last 38 seconds and called time out with 4 seconds to go.

    Chiefs are out of timeouts, cannot ice Siccop.

    The snap, the ball is placed down and the kick is ……..

    And the power goes out region wide due to heavy wet snow ….

  48. It’s been one of those long days and I am exhausted and everything is striking me funny, but, when y’all mention French models, all I can think of is Brigitte Bardot. 🙂

  51. Harvey just saying hate to flip flop from what I said yesterday but there is a chance for a little or a lot of snow for Sunday & it needs to be watched very , very closely .

    1. OK, WTF?????

      What have we got going on here. Too many factors are pointing to well, we may have lemonade yet. 🙂

      Love it.

      Now, DYING to see the 0Z runs. 🙂 🙂 🙂

      This kind of crap keeps me sane (OR INSANE!) during the pandemic.

  56. That is the time period I am waiting to see if the Almanac is right as it is calling for a 1-2 foot blizzard.

  58. Not to jump the gun, your NWS snow map for tomorrow:

    NWS Boston
    @NWSBoston
    55m

    [Friday] As a warm front lifts across southern New England, we expect light snow before transitioning to rain. While most of southern New England receives less than a coating of snow, the higher terrain of western Massachusetts could accumulate between 1 and 2 inches of snow.

    https://twitter.com/NWSBoston/status/1357447812087046146?s=20

    1. Alarm Bells?????????????????? A bit much, don’t ya think.

      0Z runs start processing in less than 1/2 hour. First results around 8:40 PM. 🙂

  60. Mark our hockey teams aren’t looking too good out of the gate both with a record of 3-4-2. With a 56 game season you can’t afford to have a start like that. At least we have the Yankees to look forward to and as I said the other day anything short of a World Series appearance would be a disappointing season.

    1. Pathetic starts for both…they need to turn it around ASAP with the short season! Particularly disappointing for the Islanders after their run to the Eastern Conference finals last season.

    2. It’s a 12 hour storm Harvey just said . He just said the best model he likes says fringe hit the others say big hit it’s a tough call

  62. NWS discussion

    Sunday through Monday…

    The forecast becomes less confident heading into the second half of
    the weekend. We are continuing to watch model trends for a potential
    coastal storm Sunday into Sunday night. Over the past 24 hours the
    GFS/ECMWF/Canadian have made a shift to the north. The 12z GFS/ECMWF
    give a glancing blow to southern New England, giving southeast zones
    (Cape Cod and the Islands) a better chance for accumulations, while
    the Canadian remains sill far enough offshore. Notably the 12z NAM
    remains the most robust and impactful for southern New England.
    Yesterday we were looking at model guidance that kept this potential
    coastal low well to the south of the area. Still, a storm worth
    watching as it is still 3 days out. Additionally, given that the
    shortwave associated with the formation of the low is located over
    the north Pacific Ocean – it hasn`t been properly sampled, yet.

  63. Pete B with a snow map on Twitter. 1-3 most of SNE and 3-5 SE CT, Southern half of RI and a bit of SE Mass.

  64. For the last twenty years I have counted on The Patriots to shorten my winters by keeping things interesting into February. Now it is up to TK and all of you at WHW…and maybe a little TB12. Thanks!

  66. 18z Euro EPS did not come any further NW, perhaps a tick back SE. Still a big cluster of members both NW and SE of the mean.

    00z NAM rolling now….

    1. I think there is accumulating snow one way or the other if I heard Harvey right either a lot or a little but south shore had a few solid inches under the little bit of snow .

Comments are closed.