3:11AM

Warm front slowly pushing northeastward will finally win out and the mild air will continue to scour out the cold and melt the newly fallen light snow during the day today.

Very weak cold front crosses the region tonight with a band of rain showers, followed by fair weather but only a tiny cool-down Monday as a small bubble of high pressure visits.

A stronger cold front approaches from the west Tuesday with a very mild push of air ahead of it, then passes through Wednesday with rain showers possibly ending as snow showers.

High pressure brings fair and chilly weather for the end of the coming work week.

Forecast for eastern MA, RI, and southern NH…

TODAY: Mostly cloudy. Early morning patches of fog, drizzle and pockets of freezing drizzle with a few icy spots remaining. Highs 52-57. Wind SE to SW 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Rain showers crossing the region west to east. Lows 42-47. Wind SW 5-15 MPH shifting to W.

MONDAY: Mostly cloudy east coastal areas and Cape Cod early, otherwise mostly sunny. Highs 49-54. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 39. High 60.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy with rain showers AM. Partly cloudy with snow showers PM. Low 46. High 50 early then falling.

THURSDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 26. High 40.

FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 22. High 44.

8:20AM

A cold front passed by overnight, quietly in southern New England, but not before putting down several inches of snow in some of the northern New England ski areas! It’s also been cold enough up there to be making snow, so a bit of an early start to the season for some.

The cold front will come to a halt just south of New England today and mild air to the southwest and west of the region will ride up over it, creating lots of clouds today and Saturday. Some light precipitation may break out on Saturday but not looking for a heavy event. By Sunday, the front will have returned northward as a warm front and will introduce a thaw that will last a few days, until a cold front brings us back to the chill around the middle of next week.

Forecast for RI, eastern MA, and southern NH…

TODAY: Mostly cloudy. Highs 33-38. Wind N  up to 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Cloudy. Lows 24-29. Wind NE under 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Cloudy. A few periods of light snow (no significant accumulation) and rain. Highs 35-40. Wind E up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Chance of rain showers early. Patchy fog late. Temperatures steady 35-40. Wind SE under 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Mostly cloudy. Highs 50-55. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 43. High 55.

TUESDAY: Partly sunny. Low 44. High 60.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy. AM rain showers. PM snow showers. Low 40. High 50.

THURSDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 23. High 40.

8:42AM

It sounds like a rerun but the overall chilly/dry pattern of November will maintain itself right through the last few days of the month and into the first hours of December before moderation takes place for the early days of the new month.

The mostly non-storm (except some bands of moderate snow and accumulation in parts of far southern New England) is in a doddle just offshore but will pull away later today, allowing high pressure to build in for Thursday. A cold front will cross the region from northwest to southeast Thursday night, reinforcing the cold air for Friday.

As December starts, Saturday & Sunday will feature the approach and passage of a warm front which will bring clouds and eventually moderating temperatures. But with lots of dry air around and not a tremendous moisture punch with the front, precipitation will be scarce at best, and for now is being excluded from the forecast which follows this discussion.

Looking ahead into early next week, following the guidance of the European computer model which shows a bit more up and down temperature swings versus a mild spell. It still looks like a dry pattern even with the swings.

Forecast for eastern MA, RI, and southern NH…

TODAY: Mostly cloudy. Isolated light snow and rain showers. Highs 36-41. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 25-30. Wind W 5-10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 40-45. Wind W 10-20 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Slight chance of a snow shower reaching portions of southern NH and northeastern MA. Lows 25-30. Wind W 10-20 MPH with gusts to 30 MPH, shifting to NW.

FRIDAY: Variably cloudy. Highs 33-38. Wind NW 10-20 MPH.

SATURDAY: Mostly cloudy. Low 22. High 39.

SUNDAY: Mostly cloudy. Low 36. High 49.

MONDAY: Partly sunny. Low 30. High 44.

TUESDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 35. High 50.

8:09AM

12:43PM (edit for time period and to tweak snow amount through tonight – no major changes still)

Updated forecast for eastern MA, RI, and southern NH…

THIS AFTERNOON & TONIGHT: Overcast with periods of light snow northern MA/southern NH with little accumulation, periods of light to occasionally moderate snow elsewhere except sometimes mixed or rain in coastal areas with snow accumulations mostly a coating to around 1 inch except locally around 2 inches in some higher elevations south and southwest of Boston. Temperatures holding in the 30s. Wind N up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Variably cloudy.  Chance of snow showers. Highs 35-40. Wind NW 10-20 MPH.

THURSDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 25. High 43.

FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 23. High 37.

SATURDAY: Partly sunny. Low 26. High 39.

SUNDAY: Mostly cloudy. Low 32. High 49.

MONDAY: Partly sunny. Low 33. High 44.

2:44AM

Simple week as we end November and start December. High pressure slides in for a bright, chilly Monday even though a weak boundary will cross the region virtually unnoticed. Tuesday’s a cloudy day with a touch of light snow mainly near and south of the Mass Pike (mix Cape Cod & Islands). This will be a very low impact event as it is a flat open wave of low pressure moving very rapidly along to the east northeast with very little support. Upper level trough swings through Wednesday with lots of clouds and a few snow showers. High pressure will be in general control Thursday & Friday with chilly/dry weather, though a weak reinforcing cold front late Thursday will result in Friday being the colder of the 2 days. The weekend (December’s first two days) will likely present more clouds and moderating temperatures.

Forecast for eastern MA, RI, and southern NH…

TODAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 40-45. Wind W 10-15 MPH with gusts 20-25 MPH.

TONIGHT: Increasing clouds south to north. Lows 23-28. Wind light variable.

TUESDAY: Cloudy. A period of light snow mainly across the southern half of eastern MA and RI except mixed rain/snow in coastal RI across Cape Cod & the Islands. Snow accumulation less than 1 inch in areas that it falls. Highs 35-40. Wind NE 5-10 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Decreasing clouds northwest to southeast. Lows 22-27. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Variably cloudy.  Chance of snow showers. Highs 35-40. Wind NW 10-20 MPH.

THURSDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 25. High 43.

FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 23. High 37.

SATURDAY: Partly sunny. Low 26. High 39.

SUNDAY: Mostly cloudy. Low 32. High 49.

9:15AM

This evening’s update will focus on the week ahead (Monday through Sunday).

This update will focus on the last 6 days of November (today through Friday).

It’s a chilly/dry pattern for November’s home stretch. A strong west northwest flow that was established with a cold front’s passage early Saturday will continue today before relaxing Monday. It will be strong enough today to pick up moisture from the Great Lakes (snow showers abundant around that area to the mountains of western New England) and drag it across New England. A few stray snow showers may try to reach southern New England (especially the interior and hills) before drying up during this afternoon/evening. So this means that the sun from the morning will share the sky with clouds this afternoon. Monday will be a sunnier day as dry air is dominant and the air flow relaxes somewhat. An open wave of low pressure will move rapidly east northeastward from the Mid Atlantic into the waters southeast of New England Tuesday and Wednesday. This storm will intensify over water but be moving so quickly and be far enough south to limit the precipitation threat for southern New England. It will be cold enough for snow in most areas, except some mix/rain immediate coastal areas and over Cape Cod & the Islands. Anyway, precipitation will be very light from this event over most areas and any snow accumulation is likely to be limited. High pressure returns with cold/dry weather to end the week.

Forecast for eastern MA, RI, and southern NH…

TODAY: Mostly sunny this morning. Sun mixed with clouds this afternoon with a slight chance of a stray snow shower reaching some areas mainly well north and west of Boston. Highs around 40. Wind WNW 10-20 MPH gusting to 30 MPH.

TONIGHT: Partly cloudy with isolated light snow showers early, followed by clearing. Lows in the 20s. Wind W diminishing to around 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs around 40. Wind W 10-15 MPH.

TUESDAY: Cloudy. PM light snow inland, mix coast, mix/rain Cape Cod and the Islands. Low 22. High 38.

WEDNESDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of snow showers. Low 27. High 38.

THURSDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 22. High 36.

FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 21. High 40.

8:06AM

A cold front is now moving offshore and in will rush colder air for the balance of the weekend, along with gusty wind. High pressure will crest over southern New England Monday which will be a fair and chilly day. Low pressure will ride out of the Midwest and bring unsettled weather Tuesday and Wednesday with some rain and snow, but this will not be a significant system. The end of the week looks fair and chilly again as the overall pattern remains one featuring below normal temperatures and precipitation.

Updated forecast for eastern MA, RI, and southern NH…

TODAY: Variably cloudy. Highs around 45 through midday then falling to the 30s late. Wind W 10-20 MPH gusting around 30 MPH.

TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows around 30. Wind W 10-20 MPH gusting to 30 MPH.

SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs around 40. Wind W 10-20 MPH gusting to 30 MPH.

MONDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 22. High 42.

TUESDAY: Increasing clouds. Rain late. Low 28. High 46.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy. AM mix / PM snow showers. Low 30. High 40.

THURSDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 25. High 38.

FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 21. High 39.

5:45PM

I hope anybody traveling today has made it safely to their destination! If you  have to travel on the holiday itself, no worries from the weather. Looks great as high pressure dominates. This high will hang around for “Black Friday” which will be a splendid day, with sunshine and mild air. It won’t last though. The chilly/dry pattern that we have been in will continue. We’ll snap right back to it with the passage of a strong cold front Saturday morning (a little earlier than I thought yesterday). This will bring a band of rain showers as the air will still be mild. But right behind it, in will flow the cold on a gusty wind later Saturday. This chilly air will stick around into early  next week. The next “event of note” will be the passage of a fairly weak storm system around the middle of next week. The timing is a little slower than on the previous forecast (Wednesday vs. Tuesday), and again it remains too early at 7 days distance to figure out the track and if any mix/snow will be involved, so a generic and low confidence forecast will be presented here regarding that event.

I would like to wish all of you a very Happy Thanksgiving! I hope you are all with people you love and can enjoy the day. Be safe this weekend! I will continue to update the blog throughout.

Forecast for eastern MA, RI, and southern NH…

TONIGHT: Areas of low clouds near the coast. A few high clouds otherwise. Patchy fog forming in valleys, swamps, and bogs. Areas of frost. Lows upper 20s to middle 30s, lowest in the valley areas. Wind NE under 10 MPH becoming calm.

THURSDAY – THANKSGIVING: Any low clouds and patches of fog dissipating in the morning as any frost melts, then sunny. Highs 48-53. Wind light variable.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 33-38. Wind S under 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Sunny until late in the day when the sun will set into a deck of clouds in the west. Highs 53-58. Wind S to SW around 10 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Clouds move in west to east along with a threat of rain showers toward dawn. Lows 43-48. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY: Mostly cloudy with passing rain showers in the morning, then partly cloudy. Highs around 50 then falling through the 40s during the day and into the 30s by evening. Wind SW 5-15 MPH shifting to NW and increasing to 15-25 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 23-28. Wind NW 10-20 MPH and gusty.

SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 38-43. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 24. High 42.

TUESDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 28. High 47.

WEDNESDAY: Cloudy with rain/mix AM. Variably cloudy PM. Low 33. High 43.

7:32PM

The quiet pattern continues and will last through Friday before some changes take place. High pressure northeast of New England and low pressure far to the southeast will combine to cause a weak to moderate east to northeast flow over southern New England through Wednesday as a weak upper trough moves in from the west. This will promote a variably cloudy sky through Wednesday night along with cool air, but with no precipitation, conditions will be excellent for traveling just before Thanksgiving Day. The holiday itself on Thursday will be a very nice one as a narrow high pressure area builds overhead, and this high will push offshore on Black Friday, resulting in a fair and milder day, conducive to heavy mall traffic and lots of money spending.

The remainder of Thanksgiving weekend will see some changes take place. A strong cold front will approach then cross the region Saturday and Saturday night. A band of rain showers will accompany the front as the air will still be mild ahead of it. But a sharp shot of cold air will come in as the front passes (exact timing remains to be seen but best guess is Saturday evening for the front to cross the region). Most of the moisture will be offshore rather quickly so the chance of snow showers on Sunday is remote, at best. But if any moisture is around it would be cold enough to support snow showers.

Looking into early next week, a fair and cold Monday should be followed by a threat of unsettled weather Tuesday (too early to be sure on rain vs. snow, or the significance of the event).

Updated forecast for eastern MA, RI, and southern NH…

TONIGHT: Variably cloudy. Lows 28-33. Wind NE under 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Variably cloudy. Highs 48-53. Wind NE-E 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 31-36. Wind NE-N 5-10 MPH.

THURSDAY (THANKSGIVING): Mostly sunny. Highs 50-55. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Mostly sunny.  Low 37. High 56.

SATURDAY: Mostly cloudy. PM rain showers. Low 40. High 49.

SUNDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 27. High 42.

MONDAY: Mostly sunny.  Low 22. High 44.

TUESDAY: Cloudy. Chance of rain/mix.  Low 29. High 43.

5:21PM

No major discussion changes. Travel weather still looks great leading up to Thanksgiving. Black Friday shopping weather looks great. Transition from brief mild to cold this weekend. Updated forecast for eastern MA, RI, and southern NH…

TONIGHT: Variably cloudy. Lows 25-35, coldest inland valleys. Wind N-NE under 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Variably cloudy. Highs 47-52. Wind NE around 10 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Lows 33-38. Wind NE-E up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Highs 46-51. Wind NE-E 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY – THANKSGIVING: Partly to mostly sunny. Low 34. High 54.

FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 38. High 55.

SATURDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of rain showers. Low 40. High 49.

SUNDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of snow showers. Low 27. High 39.

MONDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 21. High 41.

9:17PM

Are you looking for good news about traveling around the area this week, and decent weather for Thanksgiving football games? What about Black Friday shopping? And what’s next weekend going to be like? I think you’ll like the answers for the most part.

High pressure will dominate the region Monday into Tuesday with fair weather. As the center of this high shifts northeastward into the Canadian Maritimes later Tuesday and Wednesday, and low pressure forms well southeast of New England, an onshore flow will promote some low clouds from the ocean at least in southeastern and eastern sections. Also, a trough in upper levels approaching from the southwest will also add some cloudiness to the region by midweek. Based on current expected timing, rebuilding high pressure should push the clouds offshore on Thanksgiving, which should be a fair and seasonable day. This high will sit overhead and milder air will make for a perfect Black  Friday. Looking ahead to next weekend, a cold front and low pressure trough should bring slightly unsettled and eventually colder weather to the region.

Forecast for eastern MA, RI, and southern NH…

OVERNIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 22-27 except 28-33 coast and urban centers. Wind N under 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs around 50. Wind N up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows around 30. Wind NNE under 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Clouds roll into eastern areas, sunshine holding on over locations to the west. Highs around 50. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Low 37. High 49.

THURSDAY – THANKSGIVING: Clearing. Low 34. High 52.

FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 35. High 56.

SATURDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of rain showers. Low 42. High 50.

SUNDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of snow showers. Low 28. High 42.

9:02PM

No major changes to the discussion. Summarizing, high pressure centered north of New England will provide quiet and chilly weather this weekend. Only some low clouds will come off the ocean at times in southeastern MA, Cape Cod, and the Islands, due to a north northeast wind flow of chilly air over relatively warm water. Early next week, storminess will develop in the western Atlantic but stay far enough offshore to not have a direct impact. What may happen is that the flow between it and high pressure to the north may send low clouds in from the ocean by Tuesday/Wednesday, and even without that some of the higher and middle clouds around the storm’s circulation would possibly expand over the region. As for travel weather heading into the Thanksgiving holiday, expect mainly favorable conditions.

Updated forecast for eastern MA, RI, and southern NH…

OVERNIGHT: Clearing. Lows middle 20s inland valleys to middle 30s urban centers. Wind N under 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Low clouds at times from Plymouth County MA southward. Sunny elsewhere. Highs around 50. Wind N-NNE 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows upper 20s inland valleys to middle 30s coast. Wind light N-NNE.

SUNDAY: Mostly sunny to partly cloudy with some additional low clouds in far southeastern MA. Highs around 50. Wind NNE 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 31. High 51.

TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Low 33. High 48.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Low 37. High 47.

THURSDAY – THANKSGIVING: Partly cloudy. Low 33. High 52.

10:02PM

High pressure to the north and evolving low pressure far to the south and east will keep southern New England on the chilly, dry side for the next several days. A north northeast wind at low levels will drive some additional low cloudiness across southeastern MA Friday. A weak disturbance at high levels will spread some high cloudiness across the sky Friday as well. Sunshine will dominate the weekend. A broad low pressure area will organize to the southeast of New England during the first part of next week, but far enough out there so that we never see any precipitation from it, only some cloudiness. This is good news regarding the weather for pre-Thanksgiving travel.

Forecast for eastern MA, RI, and southern NH…

OVERNIGHT & FRIDAY: Variable high cloudiness but still some sunshine during the day except in southeastern MA, Cape Cold, & the Islands where areas of low clouds continue. Highs 45-50. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 25-30 except lower 30s coast and urban centers. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 45-50. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 25-30. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 45-50. Wind variable 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY: Partly sunny. Low 29. High 48.

TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Low 33. High 50.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Low 34. High 51.

THURSDAY – THANKSGIVING DAY:  Partly cloudy. Low 32. High 54.

My outlook for this winter is pretty straightforward, and will presented just that way. I’m going to spare going into detail on the technical stuff and we can discuss that in the comment section below if you are interested.

What I will say is that all major factors influencing climate were taken into account (PDO, AO, NAO, QBO, solar cycle, ENSO, among other things). The major players in the pattern this winter will be an easterly QBO (winds predominantly from the east at high altitudes over the equatorial Pacific Ocean), neutral ENSO (neither La Nina nor El Nino), an often negative AO/NAO (blocking pattern in the northern hemisphere), and a weak solar maximum (higher sunspot activity but not out of control).

I think the most important thing these lead to is a tendency for drier than normal conditions (which may become a problem as 2013 goes on). This is a pattern of variable temperatures but frequent spells of cooler than normal weather, which we have not seen for the better part of a couple years. The general pattern under this setup features a mean ridge position in the middle of the US with troughs dominating both the East and West Coasts. This pattern also favors frequent cut-off low pressure areas near or off the East Coast. The blocking may be fairly strong on a frequent basis, and this is the reasoning for the drier forecast. Blocking too strong would force many  of the storms to be too far south and/or east to have major impact on New England. This type of a pattern may spell out bigger snow totals for the Middle Atlantic.

So, what are we gonna see? I will consider the 2012-2013 winter to be December 1 through March 31, even though we can and do see snow in April and even as late as May. The winter overall should feature near to below normal temperatures, below normal precipitation, and near to below normal snowfall. The month by month breakdown:

December… Temperature: near to below normal. Precipitation: below normal. Snow: near to below normal.

January… Temperature: below to much below normal. Precipitation: below normal. Snow: near to below normal.

Feburary… Temperature: near to below normal. Precipitation: near to below normal.  Snow: near to below normal.

March… Temperature: near normal. Precipitation: near to above normal. Snow: Near to above normal.

Any questions, please go to the comments section below!  If it is your first time commenting, be patient as I need to approve you the first comment for each email.

10:49PM

No big changes from the previous discussion. Dry, chilly pattern continues through the weekend. Watching an ocean storm for early next week, battling with high pressure to the north. The indications are for the storm to evolve a little further to the south and east, lessening the chance of direct impact from stronger winds and heavier precipitation, but probably close enough to at least through clouds over the region. Again, still far away, with time to fine-tune. With a big travel week next week, this forecast is very important.

In the short term, there will still be some issues with minor coastal flooding through Thursday at high tide times.

Updated forecast for eastern MA, RI, and southern NH…

OVERNIGHT: Cloudy intervals southeastern MA. Clear elsewhere. Lows 25-30 inland valleys, 30-38 elsewhere, mildest near the coast and in urban centers. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY: Occasional low clouds from the ocean over southeastern Massachusetts, the Cape and Islands. Mostly sunny elsewhere (some high clouds from the southwest later). Highs 42-47. Wind N-NE 10-20 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Occasional low clouds from the ocean over southeastern MA, Cape Cod, and the Islands. Variable high clouds elsewhere. Lows 25-30 inland, 31-36 coast. Wind N-NE 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Partly cloudy to mostly sunny. Highs 44-49. Wind NE-N 10-15 MPH.

SATURDAY: Sunny. Low 24. High 47.

SUNDAY: Brightest sun north, filtered sun south. Low 28. High 48.

MONDAY: Mostly cloudy. Low 35. High 45.

TUESDAY: Cloudy. Chance of rain south. Low 35. High 45.

WEDNESDAY: Cloudy. Chance of rain south and east. Low 35. High 45.