DAYS 1-5 (SEPTEMBER 27 – OCTOBER 1)
The September storm continues. This update focuses on the main points and overall impact / timeline, then a look beyond, as not much has changed. The synoptic picture still shows the blocking pattern with high pressure to the north and the low pressure area that is the storm doing its westward turn back toward NJ where it will loop over by tonight, then begin a trek east northeastward while weakening, finally passing just southeast of our region Monday night and departing to the east of our area Tuesday. As previously outlined, the strongest winds have been in coastal areas, but occasional strong gusts further inland have occurred too, bringing down vulnerable tree limbs (in some cases whole trees) and resulting in scattered power outages. This issue has been more prominent in higher elevations and along the coast. Also, high tide coastal flooding has been occurring as expected, and the next two high tide cycles (midday and late night today) will continue this before it subsides. The full moon occurred last night so tides are astronomically high anyway, which has added to the problem. Bands of heavier rainfall continue to wheel in on the north side of the low and some of this is causing poor drainage flooding and will also lead to some stream and small river flooding, although I do not expect the latter to be too severe. When improvement comes on Tuesday, I do expect a lot of clouds to linger, but we should see some breaks of sun. It is midweek when we will have a period of much nicer (and warmer) weather.
TODAY: Overcast. Rain areas transitioning to showers, but any can be heavy. Slight chance of thunder. Temperatures generally steady 55-62 through midday rising slightly to 58-65 later in the day, particularly south of Boston. Wind NE to E 15-30 MPH inland with gusts around 40 MPH, 25-40 MPH coast with gusts 45-55 MPH and isolated gusts as high 60 MPH (Blue Hill and exposed coastal areas), strongest early in the day then gradually slackening.
TONIGHT / MONDAY: Cloudy. Periodic rain. Lows 53-60. Highs 60-67. Wind NE 10-20 MPH inland, 15-30 MPH coast, higher gusts continue.
MONDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Rain tapers to showers the ends. Areas of fog. Lows 52-59. Wind N diminishing to under 10 MPH.
TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy to partly sunny. Highs 63-70. Wind W up to 10 MPH.
TUESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Patchy fog. Lows 50-57. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.
WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 68-75. Wind S 5-15 MPH.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Fog patches interior low elevations. Lows 52-59. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.
THURSDAY: Sunny. Highs 71-78. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.
DAYS 6-10 (OCTOBER 2-6)
A cold front goes by in the pre-dawn of October 2 with a shower chance, then fair weather dominates the balance of the time into October 4 with a cooler northwesterly flow then lighter wind. Pushing back timing of next wet weather threat to a bit later in the period (around October 5). Will watch the track of low pressure from the west and southwest for that threat as we’ll be in a more zonal flow pattern then.
DAYS 11-15 (OCTOBER 6-10)
Zonal flow pattern. A couple systems can bring shower threats but overall pattern is dry, seasonable to mild.
Thank you TK.
Next high tide roughly 12;20 PM.
Good morning and thank you TK.
58, up from 57.
Ocean: 60
Wordle: 4
Logan is still a bit under 2 inches and likely will exceed that by storms end. Not sure model estimates of 4 inches plus will materialize for Boston, perhaps in a few locations. As of right now TK’s forecast of 2-4 inches looks pretty good.
BTW, I think I heard a big clap of thunder an hour or 2 ago. Not sure if it was real or a dream. It got me stirring and I got up not too much later.
Interesting storm. Logan gusted to 58 mph about 830 last night, according to JR. Now to about 40ish, windy, but no big deal.
I think Blue Hill may have recorded a record gust, 58 MPH. Funny, but it sounds low to me.
Well up to 5.60 for storm total so far.
Wow
Where?
Here in JP. Happy to screen shot. Milton is over 5 inches as well.
Great 4.
Thank you.
Great 4, JpDave !
Thanks Tom
Thanks TK !
Wordle: 5
Very nice 5 also. I’m still working on it
Good luck, Vicki !
Nice 5
12z HRRR, FWIW ….
https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=hrrr&p=qpf_acc-imp&rh=2026092712&fh=27&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=
Thank you, TK.
We remain at our low of 56 with a 55 DP. So far system total 2.03
Sounds about right.
We have 1.5″ so far.
Wordle in 5 today.
Nice 5.
Welcome to the 5 car 🙂
Aa of 9am, Logan is up to 1.77 inches, if I added correctly and that does not include anything overnight Friday into Sat am which might have been a tenth or 2.
Thanks, TK!
4.51″ here and still raining.
Basement dry so far.
Good luck, Captain !
Power outage last night, back now but cable is still out. Two large ash limbs down in yard, one in garden, one just missed cars. Quite the storm.
Wordle 4
Great 4 !
Nice and welcome to the 4 car.
Thanks TK
Waking up to no power
Hope it’s back soon, JJ !
https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=hrrr&p=pwat&rh=2026092712&fh=9&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=
Later this afternoon, a drop locally, a bit in precipitable water values and the simulated radar does show a lot less coverage in showers locally this afternoon.
But ….
https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=hrrr&p=pwat&rh=2026092712&fh=25&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=
They rise again tomorrow morning with the re-approach of the weakened sfc now.
Many radar simulations show yet another healthy rain band pushing through during the morning commute and that should be another healthy deposit of rain.