DAYS 1-5 (NOVEMBER 21-25)

As we head through Thanksgiving Week, there are no significant changes to the forecast discussion idea you’ve been reading during the last few days. We’ve only got one storm to deal with during this 5-day period, and while it will have some impact on pre-holiday travel, we could most certainly have seen something worse than what we are going to see. First, we start today with a cold and fairly calm morning under an area of high pressure. As the high retreats to the northeast and a low pressure area heads from the Ohio Valley into the Great Lakes, we’ll see increasing high clouds during the day, first battling some dry air aloft, and eventually winning the battle and blotting out the sun to end the day. We’ll see a redevelopment of this low around New Jersey by the early hours of Wednesday, and then during the day the low will move northeastward and cut right across southeastern New England. Precipitation with this system will arrive by mid to late evening today from west to east, starting as snow over interior locations mainly north of I-90, where some accumulation is likely before it turns to rain overnight. Elsewhere, other than a brief start as wet snow or mixed snow and rain, we’re looking at a rain event. The bulk of the rain will occur Wednesday morning, tapering off to just patchy drizzle by around midday. Low pressure heads offshore during the afternoon but we likely stay under its cloud canopy through sunset, so I’m not expecting any sun to appear. Wednesday evening though, a clearing trend commences, along with much drier air on a gusty north to northwest wind. Thanksgiving Day looks dry with a sun/cloud mix and a gusty breeze from the northwest, shifting to the west and diminishing gradually during the day. For morning outdoor activities such as runs, football games, and local / regional travel, we can expect early morning low temps in the upper 30s to lower 40s, rising through the 40s with a northwesterly wind 10-20 MPH and some higher gusts. As we head from midday through afternoon, the wind will become westerly and gradually slacken as we see a sun/cloud mix and temps peaking around 50 for the region in general (range upper 40s to lower 50s) for highs). Previously, I had mentioned additional storminess staying to our south late this week (into Thanksgiving Weekend). In fact, I don’t even think the energy down there will do much to form a storm system as it slides harmlessly well south of our region, while we see dry weather and colder air coming out of Canada with a colder trend through Saturday…

TODAY: Sunshine followed by increasing high clouds. Highs 42-49. Wind variable under 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Thickening overcast. Rain arrives overnight but may start as snow over interior higher elevations with a coating to as much as 2 inches possible in higher elevations of southwestern NH and north central MA before dawn before changing to rain. Lows 32-39. Wind variable up to 10 MPH evening becoming SE.

WEDNESDAY: Overcast with rain likely through midday. Cloudy remainder of day with patchy drizzle early afternoon. Highs 48-55 occurring in the morning, mildest in southeastern MA / RI. Wind SE 5-15 MPH with higher gusts, becoming variable for a while, then N 15-25 MPH with higher gusts later in the day. A brief period of wind gusts over 30 MPH inland and 40 MPH at the coast in the late afternoon / early evening.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 32-39. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, gusty.

THURSDAY (THANKSGIVING): Partly cloudy. Highs 46-53. Wind NW 10-20 MPH with higher gusts, shifting to W and gradually diminishing.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 31-38. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Partly cloudy. Highs 41-48. Wind W shifting to NW increasing to 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 22-29. Wind NW to N 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 33-40. Wind N 5-15 MPH, higher gusts, diminishing late.

DAYS 6-10 (NOVEMBER 26-30)

Low pressure approaches November 26 with clouds moving in. Rain, may start as mix, that night and into November 27 before a clearing trend follows. Dry weather November 28, seasonably chilly. Passing trough and frontal system with briefly milder air and a rain shower threat November 29. Dry, windy, colder weather to wrap up the month on November 30.

DAYS 11-15 (DECEMBER 1-5)

Large scale pattern features a northwest flow with colder, mostly dry weather in the early days of December.

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DAYS 1-5 (NOVEMBER 20-24)

It’s a holiday week and there are a lot of plans dependent on the weather. For the most part, I don’t see weather being a big factor in most plans. High pressure to our northwest delivers a chilly northerly breeze but fair weather today. The high moves over the region tonight and it will be a clear, cold one. Tuesday, as the high starts to give way to approaching low pressure, high clouds will fan across the sky, limiting and dimming the sun often, but they may struggle to thicken as they battle dry air up there at first. Eventually, they win the battle and it turns overcast in the evening. Low pressure will make a run from the eastern Great Lakes to the St. Lawrence Valley Wednesday but quickly redevelop in the Delmarva region and track across southern New England. This brings wet weather to our region with the bulk of the precipitation from this system falling in the first 12 hours of Wednesday and in the form of rain, but the first several hours of the precipitation will probably fall as at least mix and probably snow in the higher elevations of southwestern NH and north central MA where some accumulation is likely – currently thinking a solid coating to 2 inches. Any accumulation will wash away / melt away during the day Wednesday. Drier air arrives later Wednesday with breaking clouds and eventual clearing, first to the west, lastly near the coast. The delivery of cold air behind that system is not particularly strong, so while Thanksgiving Day is likely to be breezy and cool, outside of a gusty breeze it won’t be that bad for outdoor activities (morning races, football games).

TODAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 38-45. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Clear. Lows 18-25. Wind N under 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Sunshine followed by increasing high clouds. Highs 42-49. Wind variable under 10 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Thickening overcast. Rain arrives overnight but may start as snow over interior higher elevations with a coating to as much as 2 inches possible in higher elevations of southwestern NH and north central MA by dawn. Lows 32-39. Wind variable up to 10 MPH evening becoming SE.

WEDNESDAY: Overcast with rain likely through midday. Breaking clouds in the afternoon from west to east. Highs 46-53. Wind SE 5-15 MPH with higher gusts, becoming variable for a while, then NW 15-25 MPH with higher gusts later in the day.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 32-39. Wind W 10-20 MPH, gusty.

THURSDAY: Partly cloudy. Highs 44-51. Wind W 10-20 MPH, gusty.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Lows 31-38. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy. Highs 43-50. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (NOVEMBER 25-29)

The balance of Thanksgiving Weekend looks dry as low pressure is kept south of the region and high pressure holds its control. Low pressure does move through bringing a chance of rain (maybe brief higher elevation mix) on November 27 before another period of dry weather follows that into the middle of next week.

DAYS 11-15 (NOVEMBER 30 – DECEMBER 4)

Overall pattern continues to look on the dry and chilly side heading from the final day of November through the first few days of December. There may be a quick moving trough / low to contend with somewhere early to mid period.

DAYS 1-5 (NOVEMBER 19-23)

Here’s your 5-day outlook leading up to and including Thanksgiving Day. There are no significant changes to the discussion posted yesterday. Today’s weather will be bright, breezy (after a somewhat calm start), and chilly. Some clouds move in later and a light shower of rain and higher elevation snow is possible as a cold front crosses the region during this evening. Reinforcing cold air arrives tonight and hangs around through Tuesday, with dry weather. High pressure located to the west allows Monday to be quite breezy before it builds closer and shuts the wind down Monday night and Tuesday. Progressive low pressure moves into the Northeast Wednesday via the eastern Great Lakes and as the primary center heads for the St. Lawrence Valley, a secondary low center will quickly organize near the Delmarva and move across southern New England during the day before heading out quickly through the Gulf of Maine by Wednesday evening. This system’s impact will be felt as precipitation arriving as mainly rain late Tuesday night except a period of snow over interior areas, especially higher elevations, before mainly rain through midday Wednesday, then quick drying thereafter. Look for another windy period as dry, chilly air moves in behind the system for later Wednesday through the Thanksgiving holiday itself. While it’s not likely to be a very cold Thanksgiving, a more seasonable chill and a gusty breeze will still call for dressing for the weather if you’re traveling or going to a run or football game. More details to come as we get closer to that day.

TODAY: Sunny morning. Partly cloudy this afternoon. Highs 42-49. Wind W 5-15 MPH, higher gusts possible.

TONIGHT: Variably cloudy with a passing shower of rain and/or snow possible in the evening. Clear overnight. Lows 25-32. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 38-45. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 18-25. Wind N under 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Sunshine followed by increasing high clouds. Highs 42-49. Wind variable under 10 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Thickening overcast. Rain arrives overnight but may start as snow over interior higher elevation. Lows 33-40. Wind variable up to 10 MPH evening becoming SE.

WEDNESDAY: Overcast with rain likely through midday. Clearing afternoon west to east but some additional clouds southern NH and northern MA. Highs 46-53. Wind SE 5-15 MPH with higher gusts, becoming variable for a while, then NW 15-25 MPH with higher gusts later in the day.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 28-35. Wind W 10-20 MPH, gusty.

THURSDAY: Partly cloudy. Highs 45-52. Wind W 10-20 MPH, gusty.

DAYS 6-10 (NOVEMBER 24-28)

Quick breakdown of Thanksgiving Weekend (Friday 11/24 through Sunday 11-26) indicates additional low pressure areas passing south of the region around Friday and another moving into the region to the west and south of New England Sunday, with weak high pressure between the 2. This pattern should be generally dry but may feature a fan of clouds across the sky both Friday, a sunnier Saturday, and a cloudier Sunday, but not high confidence. Early the follow week, watch for a rain chance Monday 11/27, dry Tuesday 11/28.

DAYS 11-15 (NOVEMBER 29 – DECEMBER 3)

Pattern looks mainly dry and on the chilly side of normal to end November and start December.

DAYS 1-5 (NOVEMBER 18-22)

This weekend features a significant change in the weather, and it comes early. Today, we start out generally cloudy but quite mild with high temperatures in the middle 50s to lower 60s being realized this morning, along with rain showers in the region. Two more significant areas of rain will miss the area. The first is associated with an offshore low pressure area which stays offshore as it passes by to the southeast. The second is a wider swath of rain showers northwest to north of our region with a wave of low pressure riding north northeastward along a strong cold front. That front will swing through from west to east later this morning to mid afternoon, first in southwestern NH and central MA, last for Cape Cod and the Islands. This will put an end to the threat of wet weather, clear the sky, and drop the temperatures. Winds, which are mostly light and blowing from the south or southwest ahead of the front, will shift to north and northwest behind the front, and as the passing low to the east starts to deepen in the Gulf of Maine, the wind will increase as the afternoon goes on, becoming gusty, at which time you’ll really feel the drop in temperature, enhanced by the wind. The wind portion of the cold air delivery will ease up somewhat tonight as a ridge of high pressure noses into the region, but we’ll stay in a breezy set-up through Sunday, though with a bit more of a shift to a west wind ahead of a trough that has to pass through during the afternoon and evening. This may bring a couple of showers of rain, wet snow, or graupel to the region, but otherwise its main impact will be a wind shift back to northwest and a secondary push of cold air for Sunday night and Monday. Continued breezy conditions are expected Monday as the axis of high pressure will remain to our west and we’ll still feel some influence from eastern Canadian low pressure. But the high will shift eastward Monday night into Tuesday for more tranquil but still chilly weather. In fact Monday night, some locations may see their first reading of the season below 20 for low temps! Tuesday will feature sun that will then have to share the sky with increasing high clouds ahead of an approaching low pressure and frontal system. This system is going to thicken the clouds up Tuesday evening and bring a period of precipitation, mainly rain that may start as snow in interior higher elevations, during about the first 12 hours of Wednesday. As it passes, a secondary low developing with it will rapidly intensify but should be just about to move out as it starts to do so. This will allow for clearing and colder weather for Wednesday afternoon and evening, though we may see some wrap-around clouds behind the intensifying low as it pulls away. Winds will become quite gusty as this system pulls away too, but should peak during the evening before easing later at night. So if there is going to be any negative impact due to weather in the pre-Thanksgiving period, it’s confined to Wednesday.

TODAY: Mainly cloudy this morning with rain showers pushing through the region from southwest to northeast, lingering to early afternoon Cape Cod. Clearing west to east midday and afternoon, reaching Cape Cod near sunset. Highs 54-61 this morning, then cooling into the 40s west to east midday on. Wind S-SW 5-15 MPH, except SE to variable around Cape Cod, then shifting to N-NW from west to east and increasing to 10-20 MPH with higher gusts. Gusts may exceed 30 MPH by late in the day southeastern MA coastal areas.

TONIGHT: Clear. Lows 28-35. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts evening.

SUNDAY: Sunny morning. Sun/cloud mix afternoon with a chance of a passing shower of rain/graupel/snow mainly north of I-90. Highs 42-49. Wind W 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Lows 23-30. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 38-45. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 18-25. Wind calm.

TUESDAY: Sunshine followed by increasing high clouds. Highs 42-49. Wind variable under 10 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Thickening overcast. Rain arrives overnight but may start as snow over interior higher elevation. Lows 33-40. Wind variable up to 10 MPH evening becoming SE.

WEDNESDAY: Overcast with rain likely through midday. Clearing afternoon west to east but some additional clouds southern NH and northern MA. Highs 45-52. Wind SE 5-15 MPH with higher gusts, becoming variable for a while, then N-NW 15-25 MPH with higher gusts later in the day.

DAYS 6-10 (NOVEMBER 23-27)

Fair, breezy, cool weather Thanksgiving Day with a gusty westerly wind. Generally dry and seasonably chilly weather for the balance of Thanksgiving Weekend with one additional low staying weak and passing well to the south of the region by early in the weekend. The next trough and low pressure brings a chance of rain to the region by the end of the period.

DAYS 11-15 (NOVEMBER 28 – DECEMBER 2)

Pattern looks mainly dry and on the chilly side of normal to end November and start December.

DAYS 1-5 (NOVEMBER 17-21)

Some areas of dense fog are around to start today due to increased moisture from off the ocean to the south. Some limited visibility has resulted, slowing travel especially in areas south of I-90 so use caution if traveling early today. This is also a signal for a rather warm November day ahead, not record shattering by any stretch, but a 60+ day for most of the region ahead of an approaching trough. This trough will drive a cold front through here tomorrow that will put an end to the mild party. It now appears that the bulk of the rain shield from a coastal / ocean storm will stay offshore, but still can clip parts of far southeastern MA during the morning Saturday. Otherwise, just look for rain showers pushing through with the cold front mainly during the first half of Saturday before we see a drying trend quickly set in, and a clearing/colder trend to follow as the cold front moves offshore. This will set us up for a breezy, chilly, but bright day on Sunday. Similar weather continues Monday with high pressure to our northwest. This high will settle across the region Monday night, which will be a cold one, and a very chilly start to Tuesday with bright sun. The sun fades later Tuesday as the next trough and developing low pressure area approaches from the west, and may spread its precipitation into our region as early as Tuesday night. Will work on that timing – system can be a touch slower too.

TODAY: Areas of fog into mid morning, otherwise sun limited by clouds. Highs 60-67. Wind S 5-15 MPH, gusts 20 MPH or higher are possible.

TONIGHT: Clouds thicken. Rain showers arrive west to east overnight. Chance of steadier rain toward dawn mainly Cape Cod and the Islands. Areas of fog. Lows 50-57. Wind S 5-15 MPH becoming variable Cape Cod.

SATURDAY: Mainly cloudy through early afternoon with rain showers ending from west to east during midday. Breaking clouds later in the day. Highs 50-57 occurring in the morning, then cooling into the 40s. Wind variable 5-15 MPH becoming N to NW and increasing to 10-20 MPH with higher gusts, especially eastern coastal areas.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Lows 28-35. Wind N-NW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

SUNDAY: Sun and passing clouds. Highs 42-49. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts possible.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 23-30. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY: Sunny. Highs 42-49. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 21-28. Wind calm.

TUESDAY: Sunshine followed by increasing clouds. Highs 42-49. Wind variable under 10 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (NOVEMBER 22-26)

Progressive trough and low pressure / frontal system swings through the region on November 22 with rain, followed by drying later in the day. Thanksgiving Day looks dry, breezy, and seasonable with a gusty west wind. Remainder of Thanksgiving Weekend looks dry and on the chilly side, but not extreme. More details to come on the holiday weekend in upcoming posts.

DAYS 11-15 (NOVEMBER 27 – DECEMBER 1)

Watch for a precipitation threat early period, probably rain, then a dry stretch to follow that with a shot of colder air before some moderation.

DAYS 1-5 (NOVEMBER 16-20)

An area of high pressure to our south provides a fair and milder day today. The high shifts eastward Friday as low pressure off the Atlantic Coast starts to move northward at the same time a trough of low pressure approaches from the west. The trough from the west also drives low pressure north of our region with a cold front to swing through the region during Saturday, while the low from the south tracks north northeast and passes offshore. We get a warmer Friday with clouds increasing then some wet weather in the region Friday night into Saturday from an interaction of the cold front and offshore low. But it does look like the heaviest rain associated with the storm passing by will stay offshore or just clip Cape Cod for a brief time. Later Saturday through Sunday, as low pressure intensifies in the Gulf of Maine and heads into the Maritime Provinces of Canada, we’ll see dry, colder weather with a gusty breeze here. High pressure in east central Canada and low pressure still impacting the Canadian Maritimes will funnel chilly air but keep it dry here into early next week as well.

TODAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 55-62. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 45-52. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Partly to mostly cloudy. Highs 60-67. Wind S 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy with a chance of rain showers evening. Cloudy overnight with an increasing rain chance. Areas of fog develop. Lows 50-57. Wind becoming variable up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Cloudy through midday with rain likely I-95 belt eastward and a good chance of showers elsewhere. Mostly cloudy with a few lingering rain showers possible in the afternoon. Highs 50-57 occurring in the morning, then cooling into the 40s. Wind variable 5-15 MPH becoming N and increasing to 10-20 MPH with higher gusts, especially eastern coastal areas.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Lows 28-35. Wind N-NW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

SUNDAY: Sun and passing clouds. Highs 42-49. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts possible.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 23-30. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY: Sunny. Highs 42-49. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (NOVEMBER 21-25)

High pressure to the north hangs on with fair, cool weather November 21. A progressive low pressure area and frontal system will pass through on November 22 with unsettled weather, mainly rain, but may start as snow/mix in some areas early. Fair weather returns for Thanksgiving Day into the extended holiday weekend with seasonable temperatures for the holiday then a colder trend.

DAYS 11-15 (NOVEMBER 26-30)

Some temperature moderation expected in the last several days of the month, with a period of wet weather possible around November 27-28 as another trough moves through from the west.

DAYS 1-5 (NOVEMBER 15-19)

A cold start today, quite frosty in some areas with high pressure overhead. A light northerly air flow has driven some ocean effect clouds over Cape Cod but those will move out / dissipate early today as the high pressure area shifts to the south and our air flow across the region becomes light west to southwest. While this is happening, warmer air will be advecting in above us and create a variable amount of high cloudiness as the day goes on. These clouds will peak this evening before clearing out overnight as a warm front moves quietly through the region. What this front will do is boost Thursday’s high temperatures by about 10 degrees over today’s chillier readings. Another dry day is in store for us Thursday. Things start to change on Friday with high pressure further offshore and a low pressure trough approaching from the west. A southerly air flow will increase the moisture and resultant cloud cover in the region, and at the same time we’ll be watching a plume of moisture associated with a developing low pressure area to the south. This storm will pass by to the southeast of New England Friday night into Saturday while the trough to the west sends another low to our north, and its trailing cold front moves eastward across our region. This is a recipe for some wet weather with showers from the cold front, but also a swath of rain from the coastal / ocean low. The latter looks like it will have the greatest impact to the east of I-95 during the first 12 hours of Saturday before it starts to exit to the northeast and the cold front pulls through. This will shift the wind flow to northerly and drive drier, colder air into the region, and as these systems fully phase in eastern Canada we can expect dry weather but a gusty, chilly day on Sunday to finish the weekend.

TODAY: Early morning clouds exit Cape Cod, otherwise sun and high clouds. Highs 47-54. Wind N under 10 MPH except up to 10 MPH Cape Cod early, then shifting to W-SW up to 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Lots of high clouds evening, then a clearing trend overnight. Lows 36-43. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 52-59. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 45-52. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Partly to mostly cloudy. Highs 60-67. Wind S 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy with a chance of rain showers evening. Cloudy overnight with rain likely, especially from the I-95 belt eastward. Lows 48-55. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY: Cloudy through midday with rain likely I-95 belt eastward and a good chance of showers elsewhere. Mostly cloudy with a few lingering rain showers possible in the afternoon. Highs 50-57 occurring in the morning, then cooling into the 40s. Wind variable 5-15 MPH becoming N and increasing to 10-20 MPH with higher gusts, especially eastern coastal areas.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Lows 28-35. Wind N-NW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

SUNDAY: Sun and passing clouds. Highs 42-49. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts possible.

DAYS 6-10 (NOVEMBER 20-24)

High pressure brings dry and seasonably chilly weather early next week. Watching for a progressive system to pass by during November 22 with a good chance of precipitation, mostly rain, but may start as snow/mix to the west/north favoring higher elevations if it comes in quickly enough. Thanksgiving Day looks dry and breezy, but not too chilly. Colder air arrives the day after that with a secondary cold front moving through that may produce a rain or snow shower with otherwise dry weather expected.

DAYS 11-15 (NOVEMBER 25-29)

Pattern looks dry for the balance of Thanksgiving Weekend before the precipitation chance goes up early the following week with a progressive trough arriving.

DAYS 1-5 (NOVEMBER 14-18)

A disturbance brought the first measurable snow of the season to some locations in the WHW forecast area last evening, a coating to just under 1 inch of snowfall mainly in higher elevations of Worcester County being about the extent of it. Elsewhere, a few snow and rain showers occurred, with some areas seeing nothing at all, especially further southeast as the activity diminished and dissipated on the way there. The system is now offshore and will move away today. Other than one more passing sprinkle or flurry this morning in a few locations and maybe an ocean-effect shower episode on Outer Cape Cod around midday we’ll have a dry, cool day with lots of clouds giving way to more sun with time. High pressure builds in tonight and will be with us during the midweek period, gradually shifting eastward and offshore by Thursday. Some high cloud patches will be with us at times on Wednesday as warmer air starts to move in, first aloft. We won’t notice it too much at the surface with only a modest warm-up Wednesday, but we will on Thursday when it turns noticeably milder. The warm-up will continue into Friday but that day will feature more cloudiness as we have both an approaching trough from the west and increased moisture ahead of low pressure to our south. This is likely to lead to a period of wet weather focused on later Friday evening until midday Saturday, lasting longest in eastern areas which will be closer to an at-least partial phasing of the trough from the west and the low pressure from the south. The latter will be intensifying as it passes by early Saturday, and eventually will pull dry air in behind it, with a drier finish to the day. Expect gusty winds with this system, especially in eastern areas and particularly near the coast. A few more details on wind and rain are to be determined, which I will do in the next few updates. But for now plan on a wet start to the weekend.

TODAY: Lots of clouds to start, more sun to finish. A passing light sprinkle or flurry possible until midday and a few rain showers possible Outer Cape Cod until early afternoon. Highs 42-49. Wind NW to N 10-20 MPH, higher gusts possible in eastern coastal areas.

TONIGHT: Clear. Lows 25-32. Wind NW diminishing to under 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Sunny. Highs 45-52. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 25-32. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 52-59. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 35-42. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Partly to mostly cloudy. Late-day rain showers possible. Highs 56-63. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Rain likely late evening and overnight. Lows 45-52. Wind E 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY: Cloudy with rain likely in the morning. Breaking clouds afternoon. Highs 52-59. Wind NE-N 10-20 MPH, gusts to 30 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (NOVEMBER 19-23)

Much of this period is likely to feature dry weather and near to below normal temperatures, with one system to pass by around the day before Thanksgiving with slightly milder weather and a chance of some rain. Details TBD and elaboration to come in future blog posts.

DAYS 11-15 (NOVEMBER 24-28)

Medium range indications are for a mainly dry and somewhat seasonable though variable temperature regime for Thanksgiving Weekend. Precipitation chances may increase early the following week with a trough moving in, but that is low confidence this far out.

DAYS 1-5 (NOVEMBER 13-17)

Most of the next 5 days will feature dry weather. The week will start chilly and end with a warming trend. A quick-moving disturbance in a northwesterly air flow will bring clouds in later today, then some rain and snow showers through the region this evening and tonight. Other than the low chance of a brief coating of snow in a few places in southern NH and central to possibly northeastern MA, this will be an inconsequential event. The disturbance exits early Tuesday but a fresh push of cold air and a northerly air flow behind the system can create a few rain showers on Outer Cape Cod while some cloud bands move from north to south near and just off the eastern coastline. High pressure builds in for fair and more tranquil weather Wednesday before it pushes offshore later Wednesday and Thursday, allowing a warm-up to begin. By Friday, with high pressure off to the east and northeast, low pressure to the south, and a trough of low pressure and frontal system approaching from the west, we’ll see increasing cloudiness. The opportunity for wet weather then increases by later on Friday, but I’m not certain just yet of the timing and the scope of any rainfall and will fine-tune that part of the forecast as we go through the next several days.

TODAY: Sun followed by clouds. Highs 41-48. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy this evening with passing rain and/or snow showers. Partly cloudy overnight. Lows 28-35. Wind W 5-15 MPH shifting to NW.

TUESDAY: Sun and passing clouds – most clouds near the coast and especially Outer Cape Cod where a few rain showers are possible. Highs 42-49. Wind NW to N 10-20 MPH, higher gusts possible in eastern coastal areas.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 25-32. Wind NW diminishing to under 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Sunny. Highs 45-52. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 25-32. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Partly cloudy. Highs 52-59. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 35-42. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Partly to mostly cloudy. Late-day rain showers possible. Highs 56-63. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (NOVEMBER 18-22)

Low pressure passes by to the southeast and another low passes by to the north with a trailing frontal boundary moving through the region at the start of the weekend on November 18. The amount and duration of rain will be determined by the interaction of these systems, but early on I lean toward the greatest chance of wet weather the first half of Saturday and favoring eastern and southern portions of the region, before it dries out later. Generally dry, chilly weather follows to end the weekend and start Thanksgiving Week, but have to watch for another low pressure system with an unsettled weather threat by the end of this period, which would be about the day before Thanksgiving, based on current medium range timing, which is not high confidence.

DAYS 11-15 (NOVEMBER 23-27)

Trend is for a mainly dry and somewhat seasonable though variable temperature regime heading from Thanksgiving through its holiday weekend time period with a westerly flow and a lack of significant moisture in the region.

DAYS 1-5 (NOVEMBER 12-16)

A quick Sunday update. Dry regime continues. Only chance of precipitation is from a passing disturbance in a northwest flow late Monday to early Tuesday, which can bring a few snow and rain showers to the region. Otherwise we remain dominated by high pressure with dry weather. Temperatures will run below normal for a few days, with a warm-up later in the period.

TODAY: Partly to mostly sunny. Highs 40-47. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 26-33. Wind NW up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Clouds increase. A late day rain shower possible. Highs 43-50. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Chance of rain and snow showers. Lows 33-40. Wind W to NW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

TUESDAY: Partly to mostly sunny. A passing rain or snow shower possible until midday. Highs 41-48. Wind NW 10-20 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Lows 22-29. Wind NW diminishing to under 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Sunny. Highs 45-52. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 25-32. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Partly cloudy. Highs 52-59. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (NOVEMBER 17-21)

A low pressure trough from the west and some probable tropical moisture from the south turns the region mainly cloudy with a period of two of wet weather likely in the November 17-18 time frame. Timing and details to be worked out as we go through the week. Fair, cooler to colder mid to late period as unsettled system pulls away and drier Canadian air replaces it.

DAYS 11-15 (NOVEMBER 22-26)

Looking for a progressive low pressure / frontal system to move through just before Thanksgiving to start the period, then mostly fair weather seems more likely as we head into and possibly through the extended holiday weekend period. This is not a high confidence forecast but based on pattern trends that may keep southern jet stream moisture and northern jet stream energy apart.

DAYS 1-5 (NOVEMBER 11-15)

November has been dry so far, continuing a trend from October, and our dry regime will continue for the next 5 days (at least). We’ve also turned to a cooler than normal pattern and that will also continue through 5 days. High pressure will provide the dry weather for this weekend. A brisk breeze at times will make the air feel a little colder than it is today, so keep that in mind if you’ll be outside for any Veterans Day parades / ceremonies. For this moment please allow me to thank all those who have served us and remember those who have passed on since coming back from service. Winds drop off tonight providing a decent set-up for radiational cooling, and Sunday’s wind will be a little less than today’s – a nice November day! Our overall northwest flow pattern continues into early next week, and a disturbance will move through the region late Monday into Tuesday, bringing more clouds and a chance of some passing rain and snow showers. Reinforcing cold air follows it for Tuesday but we’ll begin a slight moderation on Wednesday after a cold start to the day.

TODAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 43-50. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 24-31. Wind NW up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 40-47. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 26-33. Wind NW up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Clouds increase. A late day rain shower possible. Highs 43-50. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Chance of rain and snow showers. Lows 33-40. Wind W to NW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

TUESDAY: Partly to mostly sunny. A passing rain or snow shower possible until midday. Highs 41-48. Wind NW 10-20 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Lows 22-29. Wind NW diminishing to under 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Sunny. Highs 43-50. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (NOVEMBER 16-20)

High pressure shifts eastward toward the end of next week allowing a warm-up but also opening the door to both a trough from the west and a potential impact from tropical moisture to the south. It’s far too soon for the exact timeline on this threat but looking at later November 17 into November 18 (the start of the 3rd weekend of the month). This would be followed by a drier, colder finish to this period as the system departs to the northeast and pulls in a batch of polar air.

DAYS 11-15 (NOVEMBER 21-25)

Thanksgiving Week. We’ll need to watch for a progressive system to move through sometime before or around the holiday, but it’s too soon to know how impactful it will be. A drier pattern follows. Details to be worked out.

DAYS 1-5 (NOVEMBER 10-14)

As we reach the middle of November, we’re going to be in a chilly weather pattern dominated by an air flow out of Canada, but also a mainly dry one. A southwesterly air flow aloft keeps us under a blanket of clouds much of today, but a clearing trend will begin later and may set-up a nice sunset at least for some parts of the region. High pressure builds in for the weekend, with upper level high pressure to our west and a trough to our northeast. This set-up is dry but with below normal temperatures, with the colder of the two weekend days being Sunday. For Saturday, outdoor Veterans Day parades and ceremonies will take place with dry, chilly conditions – temperatures ranging from the upper 30s to middle 40s depending on time of event. A northwest flow continues into early next week with a disturbance bringing our only precipitation threat of the 5-day period late Monday to very early Tuesday – some rain and snow showers, but nothing that looks significant as it will be a fast-moving system with dry air around.

TODAY: Considerably cloudy – some limited sun. Highs 45-52. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, a few higher gusts.

TONIGHT: Clearing. Lows 30-37. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 43-50. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 24-31. Wind NW up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 40-47. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 26-33. Wind NW up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Clouds increase. A late day rain shower possible. Highs 42-49. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Chance of rain and snow showers. Lows 33-40. Wind W to NW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

TUESDAY: Partly to mostly sunny. Highs 40-47. Wind NW 10-20 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (NOVEMBER 15-19)

High pressure brings dry weather November 15-16 with a moderating temperature trend. High pressure shifts offshore and a low pressure trough approaches and moves in from the west with mild weather but a better rain chance November 17-18, timing details to be worked out. Dry, colder at the end of the period as a progressive pattern allows the system to move out to the east.

DAYS 11-15 (NOVEMBER 20-24)

Generally west to east flow pattern, and mostly dry weather but one trough will likely pass by at some point with some unsettled weather. Too early to determine how close to the Thanksgiving Holiday (November 23) this will be. Temperatures variable but averaging near to above normal.

DAYS 1-5 (NOVEMBER 9-13)

A low pressure wave on a frontal system provides unsettled and chilly weather today. The frontal boundary will lift just far enough north to allow the South Coast to be relatively warmer than the chilly, raw feel the rest of the region has. Drier air arrives tonight as the low pressure wave pulls the frontal boundary to the south. We then have generally dry and chilly weather for Friday through the weekend and Monday as well. Upper level low pressure will be the cause of plenty of clouds and perhaps a spot shower of liquid and/or frozen precipitation on Friday, then we’re generally in the clear for the weekend before another upper low brings more clouds again Monday.

TODAY: Cloudy. Rain moves through from west to east this morning and ends midday. Highs 43-50 except 50-57 immediate South Coast. Wind NE up to 10 MPH except variable to SW for a while along the South Coast.

TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Lows 34-41. Wind N up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy. A spot shower of rain / sleet / graupel possible. Highs 45-52. Wind N up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Lows 25-32. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 45-52. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 23-30. Wind NW up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 41-49. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 26-33. Wind NW up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Variably cloudy. Highs 43-50. Wind NW up to 10 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (NOVEMBER 14-18)

High pressure brings dry weather November 14-16, starting chilly then moderating. High pressure shifts offshore late next week opening the door for milder air but also an increased chance for wet weather as a trough of low pressure approaches from the west.

DAYS 11-15 (NOVEMBER 19-23)

Low pressure exits with a shot of dry, colder air early in the period. A west to east flow pattern dominates for the balance of the period, and despite mostly dry weather, watch for 1 or 2 quick-moving disturbances to bring clouds and brief precipitation threats. Temperatures variable but averaging near to above normal.

DAYS 1-5 (NOVEMBER 8-12)

If you step outside this morning (or were out there overnight), you’ve been shocked by a drastic change in the feel of the air, as yesterday’s relatively high humidity and mildness has been replaced by a sharp shot of Canadian chill and very dry air, along with a gusty breeze that isn’t ready to ease up. This is the theme of our day, with little help from a low angle sun mixed with passing stratocumulus / cumulus clouds. Low temperatures this morning range from the middle 30s to lower 40s, and while the air temperature does rise into the middle to upper 40s during the day today, a continued gusty breeze will often make it feel as if it is under 40. This takes place as we get air coming in between Canadian Maritime low pressure and a high pressure area moving from the Great Lakes through Ontario and Quebec. Tonight, the wind will slacken as a narrow extension of that high pressure noses across New England, but a quick-moving west-to-east zonal flow pattern in place brings the next low pressure system our way quickly, and we’ll see the clouds fanning in from it tonight, thickening up from late evening through overnight as a push of warm air aloft moves rapidly east. This will result in a band of precipitation, some of it of the frozen variety, especially from the I-90 region northward, with mostly rain to the south. But this burst will be brief and have little impact on the WHW region. During that day Thursday as the system struggles to remain intact, we’ll see a surface frontal boundary across far southern areas and a weak wave of low pressure trying to form on it. With the exception of the South Coast which may be milder for a few hours, expect a cool, raw, cloudy November day with spotty light rain/drizzle of little consequence, eventually ending. Dry air works back in from the west Thursday evening through Friday, although the upper level remains of what was once a more organized low will rotate through the region Friday with lots of clouds. I cannot rule out a sprinkle of rain or a few pellets of ice or graupel from some of these clouds, but Friday will be largely a dry day. High pressure, still centered to our west and northwest, will provide a dry but chilly mid November weekend for us, which includes Veterans Day Saturday. Morning temperatures will be rising from the upper 30s into the lower 40s and afternoon temperatures will peak in the 40s for any parades and outdoor ceremonies scheduled that day, including a moderately gusty breeze making it feel a little colder than it is.

TODAY: Sun and passing clouds. Highs 45-52. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, gusts 20-25 MPH.

TONIGHT: Clouding over. Rain arriving west to east by dawn, may start mixed with sleet and/or snow especially interior higher elevation locations. Lows 34-41. Wind N up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy. Rain chance highest early southern NH and eastern MA, then spotty very light rain / drizzle possible thereafter. Highs 44-51, mildest South Coast where some locations may max out a bit warmer. Wind NE-E up to 10 MPH except may turn S or SW for a time South Coast.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 28-35. Wind N up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy. A spot shower of rain / sleet / graupel possible. Highs 45-52. Wind N up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Lows 25-32. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 45-52. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 25-32. Wind NW up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 45-52. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (NOVEMBER 13-17)

High pressure is expected to provide dry weather and keep additional unsettled weather to the south of our region from the early to middle portion of next week with a gradual temperature moderation occurring. High pressure shifts eastward after that with milder air but also an increased chance to see clouds and possible wet weather by late week.

DAYS 11-15 (NOVEMBER 18-22)

A west to east flow dominates with one or two frontal systems bringing unsettled weather chances, but no prolonged or big storms indicated. Temperatures near to above normal.

DAYS 1-5 (NOVEMBER 7-11)

The large scale weather pattern dominating is a zonal (west to east) flow. This means that weather systems are on the move and not lingering. Overnight, a warm front pushed through, and late evening lows in the 40s were followed by a temperature rise into the 50s, along with higher humidity (dew point nearly matching but in general trailing the temps by a degree to a few degrees). Rain showers also moved through most areas, and with the help of a trough of low pressure, a swath of widespread showers will move across eastern CT, RI, and southeastern MA into mid morning before departing. Between this and an approaching cold front we get a slice of sunshine and a mild day with highs topping 60 across most of the region. The cold front trailing low pressure moving across southeastern Canada will swing through our region late this afternoon and evening, producing a few scattered rain showers, and a sharp turn to colder weather overnight. This sets up a fair but chilly Wednesday with below normal temperatures, as high pressure builds from the Great Lakes across northern New England / southeastern Canada. The next low pressure system makes a run at our region via the Great Lakes on Thursday. It’s quick-moving, as previously noted, so clouds move in rapidly ahead of it Wednesday night and a band of precipitation associated with warm air advecting in aloft arrives in the pre-dawn hours with air cold enough that some if it can fall as sleet and/or wet snow, especially north of I-90. But this system is going to be moving along a non-supporting upper air flow and won’t be strengthening, but weakening rapidly, and as the initial band of precipitation exits as quickly as it arrived, additional precipitation will start to dry up so anything that falls after the initial burst would be limited, and in the form of very light rain. A weak surface low will move eastward along a frontal boundary which will probably never lift any further north than the South Coast region, so with the exception of a possible brief shot of mild air along the South Coast, most of the area will have a light northeast flow and chilly weather Thursday. This all slides away to the southeast Thursday night and another surface wave passes well south of the region late Friday, but during the day Friday an upper level trough will swing trough with lots of clouds. These can produce a spot shower of rain and even graupel in isolated locations, otherwise expect generally dry weather Friday. High pressure builds in Saturday with dry, breezy, and chilly weather for Veterans Day.

TODAY: Cloudy start including widespread showers into mid morning from eastern CT through RI and southeastern MA, then emerging sun and passing clouds before clouds increase again northwest to southeast later, with a few scattered showers possible northwest to southeast afternoon. Highs 60-67. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 33-40. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Sun and passing clouds. Highs 45-52. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, gusts 20-25 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Clouding over. Good chance of rain by dawn, may start mixed with sleet and/or snow especially interior higher elevation locations. Lows 34-41. Wind N up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy. Rain chance highest early southern NH and eastern MA, then spotty very light rain / drizzle possible thereafter. Highs 44-51, mildest South Coast where some locations may max out a bit warmer. Wind NE-E up to 10 MPH except may turn S or SW for a time South Coast.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 28-35. Wind N up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy. A spot shower of rain / sleet / graupel possible. Highs 45-52. Wind N up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Lows 25-32. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 45-52. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (NOVEMBER 12-16)

High pressure is expected to provide dry weather and keep additional unsettled weather to the south to finish off the weekend on November 12. High pressure shifts to the south and east with dry weather continuing and a slow milder trend for the early to middle portion of next week.

DAYS 11-15 (NOVEMBER 17-21)

A west to east flow dominates with one or two frontal systems bringing unsettled weather chances, but no prolonged or big storms indicated. Temperatures near to above normal.