Saturday November 18 2023 Forecast (7:56AM)

DAYS 1-5 (NOVEMBER 18-22)

This weekend features a significant change in the weather, and it comes early. Today, we start out generally cloudy but quite mild with high temperatures in the middle 50s to lower 60s being realized this morning, along with rain showers in the region. Two more significant areas of rain will miss the area. The first is associated with an offshore low pressure area which stays offshore as it passes by to the southeast. The second is a wider swath of rain showers northwest to north of our region with a wave of low pressure riding north northeastward along a strong cold front. That front will swing through from west to east later this morning to mid afternoon, first in southwestern NH and central MA, last for Cape Cod and the Islands. This will put an end to the threat of wet weather, clear the sky, and drop the temperatures. Winds, which are mostly light and blowing from the south or southwest ahead of the front, will shift to north and northwest behind the front, and as the passing low to the east starts to deepen in the Gulf of Maine, the wind will increase as the afternoon goes on, becoming gusty, at which time you’ll really feel the drop in temperature, enhanced by the wind. The wind portion of the cold air delivery will ease up somewhat tonight as a ridge of high pressure noses into the region, but we’ll stay in a breezy set-up through Sunday, though with a bit more of a shift to a west wind ahead of a trough that has to pass through during the afternoon and evening. This may bring a couple of showers of rain, wet snow, or graupel to the region, but otherwise its main impact will be a wind shift back to northwest and a secondary push of cold air for Sunday night and Monday. Continued breezy conditions are expected Monday as the axis of high pressure will remain to our west and we’ll still feel some influence from eastern Canadian low pressure. But the high will shift eastward Monday night into Tuesday for more tranquil but still chilly weather. In fact Monday night, some locations may see their first reading of the season below 20 for low temps! Tuesday will feature sun that will then have to share the sky with increasing high clouds ahead of an approaching low pressure and frontal system. This system is going to thicken the clouds up Tuesday evening and bring a period of precipitation, mainly rain that may start as snow in interior higher elevations, during about the first 12 hours of Wednesday. As it passes, a secondary low developing with it will rapidly intensify but should be just about to move out as it starts to do so. This will allow for clearing and colder weather for Wednesday afternoon and evening, though we may see some wrap-around clouds behind the intensifying low as it pulls away. Winds will become quite gusty as this system pulls away too, but should peak during the evening before easing later at night. So if there is going to be any negative impact due to weather in the pre-Thanksgiving period, it’s confined to Wednesday.

TODAY: Mainly cloudy this morning with rain showers pushing through the region from southwest to northeast, lingering to early afternoon Cape Cod. Clearing west to east midday and afternoon, reaching Cape Cod near sunset. Highs 54-61 this morning, then cooling into the 40s west to east midday on. Wind S-SW 5-15 MPH, except SE to variable around Cape Cod, then shifting to N-NW from west to east and increasing to 10-20 MPH with higher gusts. Gusts may exceed 30 MPH by late in the day southeastern MA coastal areas.

TONIGHT: Clear. Lows 28-35. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts evening.

SUNDAY: Sunny morning. Sun/cloud mix afternoon with a chance of a passing shower of rain/graupel/snow mainly north of I-90. Highs 42-49. Wind W 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Lows 23-30. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 38-45. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 18-25. Wind calm.

TUESDAY: Sunshine followed by increasing high clouds. Highs 42-49. Wind variable under 10 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Thickening overcast. Rain arrives overnight but may start as snow over interior higher elevation. Lows 33-40. Wind variable up to 10 MPH evening becoming SE.

WEDNESDAY: Overcast with rain likely through midday. Clearing afternoon west to east but some additional clouds southern NH and northern MA. Highs 45-52. Wind SE 5-15 MPH with higher gusts, becoming variable for a while, then N-NW 15-25 MPH with higher gusts later in the day.

DAYS 6-10 (NOVEMBER 23-27)

Fair, breezy, cool weather Thanksgiving Day with a gusty westerly wind. Generally dry and seasonably chilly weather for the balance of Thanksgiving Weekend with one additional low staying weak and passing well to the south of the region by early in the weekend. The next trough and low pressure brings a chance of rain to the region by the end of the period.


Pattern looks mainly dry and on the chilly side of normal to end November and start December.

22 thoughts on “Saturday November 18 2023 Forecast (7:56AM)”

  1. Good morning and thank you TK.

    Awaiting the hilarious new run of the GFS. Should be worth
    many laughs. πŸ™‚

  2. Thanks, TK.

    Long-range forecasts are fairly worthless at this point. Just last week, according to several long-range models (eg, CFS weeklies), Boston and vicinity was going to experience above to well above normal temperatures throughout the latter half of November. No doubt, we’ve had a couple of days with above normal temps, but the latter half of November overall is not going to be above normal in terms of temperature.

    1. They’re still going to get pretty wet there during the course of the parade but it will be a more showery and milder less windy wet than a driving northeast wind type of wet.

      I was at that event in 2021 and 2022 and will be returning to it next year. I’m sitting in out this year to do something with my son and catch up on some things that need to get done but I will be watching it on DVR later. ☺️

  3. Right on cue the GFS gives me a perfect example of what I have been talking about.

    Compare the 06Z and the 12Z surface forecast chart from the operational runs for 12Z November 24th.

    Completely different.

    I rest my case.

  4. We have had blue sky dotted with white clouds a good deal of the mid day. Might be some darker clouds moving in from the west now

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