DAYS 1-5 (MARCH 12-16)

First, this reminder: If you have manual clocks and didn’t change them yet, move them forward 1 hour! Daylight Saving Time began at 2:00 a.m. today! Now, onto the weather, and today will be a very nice late winter Sunday under the influence of a small high pressure area. There will be an exception though, and that is Cape Cod and portions of the South Shore to South Coast just to the west of there, under a canopy of ocean-born clouds with a north northeast wind and low level moisture in the atmosphere. Gradually, today’s wind will be turning a little more northeast to east, and eventually, this cloud area will start to expand westward, so more coastal areas may lose the sunshine as we go through the day. However, it will at least be dry in the areas that see the cloudiness for any outdoor plans… Now, to the storm threat. A significant late-winter storm is on its way, impacting our region starting Monday and lasting into a good part of Wednesday. This doesn’t mean 3 days of full-on stormy weather. That peaks during Tuesday, but the lead-in Monday comes as clouds thicken up (although this may be taking place above a blanket of lower clouds already in place anyway). Low pressure is going to be passing just to our south and in an elongated form with a bit of a dumb-bell spin upcoming as the low becomes captured by its upper level partner and ends up doing a cyclonic loop probably just off to the southeast and east of New England Tuesday through early Wednesday. It will also be intensifying during this time a lot closer to us than many of its predecessors have done, and some of those were actually weakening as they came through, not intensifying. So this particular storm is a different animal compared to many we’ve seen this season. The main precipitation arrives late Monday night and lasts until late Tuesday night or early Wednesday morning. I think a snow or mixed rain/snow start is likely inland and a start as rain in the coastal plain for sure. It likely rains for a number of hours at the start of the storm in places like Providence and Boston and all those coastal communities, but as the storm intensifies offshore, the process of dynamic cooling will drag down cold air from above and change that rain to snow for most of, and eventually all of the region. This will take place last over Cape Cod, which will end up with the least amount of snow from the storm, with amounts building up as you head west and north. My outline of p-type and snow amounts for this system goes like this. Starts a couple hours either side of midnight Monday night / Tuesday morning as mix/snow for southwestern NH and north central MA, mix/rain south central MA, and rain eastern CT through RI and all of eastern MA. Flip to snow takes place in a general west to east motion over the inland areas (west and northwest of the coastal plain) by around dawn or shortly after, and into the coastal communities including the cities of Providence and Boston by around mid morning Tuesday, and lastly to Cape Cod by around noon Tuesday. One caveat about that: A potential dry slot can get into the South Coast region during Tuesday morning-midday which means that little or nothing may fall for an hour or two or three, which would make the change-over timing temporarily a moot point. Once precipitation resumed, however, it would be snow, or quick rain to snow, and I suspect most of what falls on Cape Cod will be snow for the balance of Tuesday afternoon into Wednesday morning. It will be Tuesday afternoon and evening that most of the snow accumulation is seen, and my first call on that is a slushy coating to 2 inches immediate South Coast including Cape Cod, 2-4 inches just inland from South Coast through the South Shore, 4-8 inches Providence up I-95 belt including Boston and the MA North Shore to the NH Seacoast and as far west as south central MA and northeastern CT with the potential for over 8 in the higher elevations of the 4-8 area, 8-12 inches from about I-495 from I-90 northward to include Worcester northward to southwestern and interior southern NH, with 12+ potential in the highest elevations of the 8-12 area. There may actually be a third low center (tertiary low) that rotates all the way around and brings one final batch of heavier snowfall into eastern areas early Wednesday morning before everything winds down during the day as spotty snow and rain showers. Snow load issues bring about the threat for damage to trees and power lines, and resultant power outages. Where this combines with wind it will be even more of an issue. And the wind aspect of this storm is significant. We start out with east and northeast winds increasing as the low center starts to pass by to the south, and then as the elongated set of lows pivots, our winds will back more to the northeast and north with time during Tuesday and into Wednesday (eventually north to northwest). Strongest wind gusts will be in coastal areas, and they may exceed 50 MPH there (Cape Ann, South Shore, Cape Cod most vulnerable to this). Thankfully, our tides are on the astronomically lower side, so while there will still likely be some coastal flooding and splashover at high tide times, it should be limited somewhat. Folks in coastal communities most vulnerable to storm-driven tidal issues should still be ready for minor to moderate flooding issues. Things calm down nicely during Wednesday night as the storm finally pulls away, and high pressure builds in for a nice “recovery” day Thursday.

TODAY: Sunshine except lots of clouds Cape Cod and MA southern South Shore to eastern South Coast, eventually expanding west and north, limiting the sun in more coastal areas with time. Highs 40-47. Wind N-NE 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Lows 28-35. Wind NE-E up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Cloudy. Highs 39-46. Wind E up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Overcast. Snow/mix/rain arriving (snow favoring higher elevations inland, rain favoring most areas initially). Lows 33-40. Wind E-NE 5-15 MPH, higher gusts in coastal areas.

TUESDAY: Overcast. Snow well inland and higher elevations. Rain changing to snow elsewhere. Snow will become heavy at times. Temperatures fall slightly to 30-37. Wind NE-N 15-25 MPH inland and 25-35 MPH coast, with gusts above 30 MPH inland and above 50 MPH coast.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Overcast. Snow tapers off gradually but still can be heavy at times. See above discussion for accumulation expectations. Lows 28-35. Wind N 15-35 MPH, higher gusts especially in coastal areas.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy with snow and rain showers likely. Highs 35-42. Wind N-NW 15-30 MPH, higher gusts.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy early, then clearing. Lows 25-32. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 41-48. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (MARCH 17-21)

Unsettled weather potential late March 17 into March 18 then a drier trend. Starting mild, then cooling. Vernal Equinox – March 20.

DAYS 11-15 (MARCH 22-26)

Early days of spring continue to look active with the good shot at a couple low pressure systems impacting the region with rain/mix/snow potentials and temperatures back to below normal.

DAYS 1-5 (MARCH 11-15)

A weekend split, though the unsettled day, today, is not all that bad. Low pressure made a run at the region, getting its clouds in and areas of snow and rain, but mainly on the lighter side, with some minor accumulation of snow mainly in the higher terrain well to the west and southwest of Boston. This area of precipitation will dry up as low pressure is deflected southeastward, eventually to become a potent storm over the water south and southeast of New England. While this process takes place, an increasing onshore wind will bring some rain and snow showers in from the ocean during the day and into this evening which can result in brief minor accumulation of snow (where they occur as snow). Exit this system tonight and enter an area of high pressure for a nice Sunday, but this interlude of nice weather will be rather short-lived too. Attention is on the evolution and development / movement of a significant storm system slated to impact our region later Monday to Wednesday. I’m not going to go into significant detail on today’s blog post about this storm. I will expand upon it significantly on tomorrow’s, however. For now, I’ll summarize my thoughts on the event this way. It’s going to be the most potent storm we directly deal with that will produce significant snow for at least part of the region this winter season (yes, it’s still winter, not spring). Low track (both surface and upper level) very important as always, but extremely so in determining precipitation profile. A slight but model-wide shift southeastward has taken place with global guidance overnight and the most recent runs (before the writing of this blog) show a solid process of dynamic cooling, ending up making more of the region see snow than rain. (Again, a guidance comment, not my actual locked-in final forecast just yet.) I bring this up because this is a process I’ve already mentioned would be a part of this storm, regardless of its track. Areas that see significant snow don’t have to be sitting in a cold airmass beforehand. Storms manufacture cold and bring it down from directly overhead in the right set-up, and this will be the right set-up for that. Snow load and wind issues will exist – details TBD. Resultant power outages will be a significant threat. Coastal issues will be limited due to astronomical low tides, fortunately, but with a potent low center likely to be passing just south and east of our region, the threat of high tide splash-over and flooding will still exist. Looking at a Monday night start time for initial precipitation favoring rain east, snow west, into Tuesday when sometime during that day, depending on the low’s track, we see the cooling take place and a rain/snow line head eastward, maybe irregularly depending on the rate of cooling via precipitation intensity (example, it could start snowing in Boston before some of its nearby western suburbs). The storm center may do a cyclonic loop / stall briefly, so the impacts likely linger into a portion of Wednesday as well. More refined detail and timing on these things with tomorrow’s post…

TODAY: Mostly cloudy. Areas of mainly light rain/snow favoring south central through southeastern MA, eastern CT, and RI during the morning. Scattered rain and snow showers favoring NH Seacoast and eastern MA this afternoon. Very minor and temporary snow accumulations possible in some areas. Generally steady temperatures 35-42. Wind NE-N 5-15 MPH, higher gusts, especially coastal areas.

TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 25-32. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 38-45. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 25-32. Wind N up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Clouding over. Highs 38-45. Wind N-NE 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT & TUESDAY: Overcast. Snow/mix/rain likely, rain favoring coastal areas, snow favoring inland areas. Lows 30-37. Highs 38-45 but may stay colder inland and start to fall all areas during Tuesday. Wind NE-E 15-35 MPH, higher gusts likely.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Overcast with snow likely, possibly heavy at times, except rain or snow South Coast and Cape Cod. Lows 28-35. Wind NE-N 15-35 MPH higher gusts likely.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy with snow and rain showers likely. Highs 35-42. Wind N 15-30 MPH, higher gusts.

DAYS 6-10 (MARCH 16-20)

Quiet start and end to this period. Mid period unsettled weather potential. Temperatures variable, averaging near normal. Vernal Equinox – March 20.

DAYS 11-15 (MARCH 21-25)

Early days of spring look active with the good shot at a couple low pressure systems impacting the region with rain/mix/snow potentials and temperatures back to below normal.

DAYS 1-5 (MARCH 10-14)

Two storms are ours to deal with during this 5-day period – the first is no big deal, the second is a bigger deal. First, high pressure provides us with a nice day today. The wind will be much lighter than the last few days as the ocean storm has moved away. Sunshine which starts out bright will become filtered by a shield of high clouds in advance of the first low we have to contend with. This storm system, while destined to become quite strong, will do so after it’s deflected southeastward, just grazing our area with some generally light precipitation. A minor accumulation of snowfall is possible mainly south and west of Boston overnight and early Saturday before the precipitation area largely dries up and a new low takes over south of New England, and heads out to sea. So that system starts our weekend a bit grey and unsettled. After the precipitation shield skirts our southern and western regions we may see a batch of rain and snow showers rotate in north of low center off the ocean, but then we recover with nicer weather late Saturday through Sunday. The next storm approaches Monday and moves in Monday night and Tuesday. This one is going to have a much higher impact on our region. What’s pretty certain is we’ll deal with some strong winds and coastal issues (though astronomical tides are not that high which is a positive aspect). What’s uncertain is the precipitation types / distribution – still to be worked out. F’or now odds favor more rain south and east (especially coastal areas) and more snow north and west (interior especially). It’s also not necessarily likely to be just one or the other for any given location, as transitions between precipitation types are also quite possible. So there will be lots of fine-tuning to come over the next few days. Bottom line: Don’t jump to any solid conclusions – just watch the updates… Reminder, EST becomes EDT at 2 a.m. Sunday when we move the clocks forward 1 hour (unless they do so automatically of course)!

TODAY: Sunshine – brightest this morning, filtered by high clouds afternoon. Highs 40-47. Wind NW under 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Clouds thicken. Snow arrives eastern CT, RI, and central to southeastern MA late evening / overnight, maybe mixed with rain coastal areas. Minor snow accumulation possible in these areas. Lows 31-38. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Mostly cloudy. Early morning light snow/mix/rain possible South Coast. Midday and afternoon rain and snow showers are possible in eastern areas which can leave a brief snow accumulation. Highs 40-47. Wind NE-N 5-15 MPH, higher gusts especially South Coast.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 25-32. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 38-45. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 25-32. Wind N up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Clouding over. Highs 38-45. Wind N-NE 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT & TUESDAY: Overcast. Snow/mix/rain likely, rain favoring coastal areas, snow favoring inland areas. Lows 30-37. Highs 38-45 but may stay colder inland. Wind NE-E 15-35 MPH, higher gusts possible.

DAYS 6-10 (MARCH 15-19)

Low pressure may linger in the area with additional precipitation into March 15. Watching another potential low pressure impact around March 18-19. Temperatures below normal.

DAYS 11-15 (MARCH 20-24)

Pattern looks active to welcome spring (Vernal Equinox March 20) with another one or two storm systems to potentially deal with. Temperatures below to near normal.

DAYS 1-5 (MARCH 9-13)

One more day on the western edge of the ocean storm today with clouds and maybe a passing sprinkle or flurry, then it heads away and high pressure builds in for a more tranquil and sunnier Friday. Low pressure makes a run at our region for early in the weekend but will be deflected southeastward by what remains of the block in the atmosphere, so while its cloud canopy invades the sky Friday night and Saturday, most of its precipitation will be shunted to our south, only clipping the South Coast. An area of high pressure will make the second half of the weekend brighter. During this time another storm system will be crossing the country and ready to enter our region during Monday. This one carries more potential with it to be a stronger impact storm for our region, but since it’s going to be arriving on day 5 the forecast for it will left very generalized for now, as it won’t be until we get closer to the event that we can sort out details. So in the words of NWS Boston (from a recent discussion), it’s “probalistic” over “deterministic” at this point. And another reminder, EST becomes EDT at 2 a.m. Sunday when we move the clocks forward 1 hour (unless they do so automatically of course)!

TODAY: Cloud/sun intervals with a passing brief snow or rain shower possible. Highs 40-47. Wind N 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 27-34.Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 40-47. wind NW 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Clouding up. Some light snow/mix/rain possible South Coast overnight. Lows 30-37. Wind N-NE 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY: Mostly cloudy. Early morning light snow/mix/rain possible South Coast. Highs 40-47. Wind NE-N 5-15 MPH, higher gusts especially South Coast.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 25-32. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 38-45. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 25-32. Wind N up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Clouding over. Late-day rain/snow possible. Highs 38-45. Wind N-NE 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (MARCH 14-18)

Potential / likely moderate to possibly major storm system impacting the region early in the period, may be slow to exit with unsettled conditions into the middle of the week before drier weather arrives. May have to watch for another system by the end of the period. Temperatures below normal.

DAYS 11-15 (MARCH 19-23)

Confidence obviously lower here but will watch for yet another storm system around the time we enter the first few days of spring following the Vernal Equinox on March 20. Temperatures below to near normal.

DAYS 1-5 (MARCH 8-12)

An ocean storm continues to spin to our east, blocked by Greenland high pressure, and this will go on for another 2 days. Our weather as a result will be breezy and cool with dominant clouds but very limited precipitation chances. The coldest air was with us as this set up, giving the region some light snow showers yesterday, but a bit of temperature moderation around the low’s circulation means that any shower activity will trend toward rain today and Thursday, but either way it will be insignificant. The block breaks down by Friday and the low pressure area wanders away to the east, releasing its grip on us and allowing high pressure to move in with more tranquil weather and sunshine to end the work week. As things begin to move along again in the atmosphere, low pressure will make a run at the region via the Great Lakes, but with some effects lingering from the ocean storm and what’s left of the block, this system will be shunted to the south, just grazing the South Coast early in the weekend, and leaving us with a generally dry and cool weekend otherwise. Oh, and don’t forget! This is the weekend that’s shorter than the others by 1 hour as we “spring foward” at 2 a.m. Sunday in the return to Daylight Saving Time.

TODAY: Mostly cloudy. A passing light rain or snow shower possible. Highs 38-45. Wind N 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.

TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Lows 28-35. Wind N 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.

THURSDAY: Partly sunny. A passing light rain shower possible. Highs 40-47. Wind N 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 27-34.Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 40-47. wind NW 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Clouding up. Some light snow/mix/rain possible South Coast overnight. Lows 30-37. Wind N-NE 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY: Mostly cloudy. Early morning light snow/mix/rain possible South Coast. Highs 40-47. Wind NE-N 5-15 MPH, higher gusts especially South Coast.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 25-32. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 38-45. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (MARCH 13-17)

Watching the potential for a moderate to major storm to impact the region with wind and precipitation early next week – details to be determined. Trending drier mid to late week. Temperatures below normal.

DAYS 11-15 (MARCH 18-22)

Lower confidence in the weather pattern for this period, but 1 or 2 more storm systems may potentially impact the region as we transition from winter to spring (Equinox on March 20). Temperatures below to near normal.

DAYS 1-5 (MARCH 7-11)

A large low pressure area east and northeast of New England will give us a gusty breeze and some of its cloudiness at times during the next few days, along with a couple chances of passing light snow and rain showers, but most of the time will be dry. The low pulls away and high pressure moves in for Friday with fair and more tranquil weather. Watching a storm system for the beginning of the weekend. Right now, model camps are split – one hit, one graze, one miss. I’m leaning toward this system not reach us on Saturday other than spreading some of its high clouds into the sky.

TODAY: Cloud/sun intervals. Highs 35-42. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.

TONIGHT: Variably cloudy. Lows 25-32. Wind NNW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy. A passing light rain or snow shower possible. Highs 38-45. Wind N 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Lows 28-35. Wind N 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.

THURSDAY: Partly sunny. A passing light rain or snow shower possible. Highs 39-46. Wind N 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 27-34.Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 40-47. wind NW 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 20-27. Wind variable under 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Sun and high clouds. Highs 40-47. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (MARCH 12-16)

There’s some uncertainty as to how 2 storm systems will impact the region. Current idea is that #1 will pass just south of the region during March 12 with lots of clouds but mostly a miss for its precipitation shield, and #2 will move up and into the region during the March 13-15 period with unsettled weather including rain and snow, details to be determined. Dry weather returning at the end of the period. Temperatures near to below normal.

DAYS 11-15 (MARCH 17-21)

Watching one more potential storm system that may impact the region with a variety of precipitation as we count down the final days of winter and welcome spring (Equinox on March 20). Temperatures mostly below normal.

DAYS 1-5 (MARCH 6-10)

A quieter stretch by March standards and certainly compared to recently is underway and will last through the next 5 days. Ironically, a large storm system will be the primary driver of the quiet pattern, as a broad low pressure area takes hold over far eastern Canada and expands it circulation to include our region, especially from Tuesday through Thursday. First, a weak area of high pressure starts us with a clear sky today but clouds from an approaching disturbance from the west will move in during the afternoon. Previously I thought this disturbance may make a hard enough run at us to bring some scattered precipitation, but it appears the organizing low to the east will be strong enough soon enough to deflect it south through Tuesday, when some of its clouds will still be moving through, then absorb it. During midweek, a couple disturbances rotating around the large low will bring us periods of clouds and maybe a passing sprinkle of rain or flurry of snow, but nothing significant. You’ll mainly notice the gusty wind that the system will provide us, and the chilly March air that accompanies it. By Friday, the low will begin to move away to the east and another area of high pressure moves in with dry, calmer weather.

TODAY: Sunny morning. Variably cloudy afternoon. Highs 40-47. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.

TONIGHT: Variably cloudy. Lows 26-33. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

TUESDAY: Variably cloudy. Highs 35-42. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Lows 25-32. Wind NNW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy. A passing light rain or snow shower possible. Highs 38-45. Wind N 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Lows 28-35. Wind N 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.

THURSDAY: Partly sunny. A passing light rain or snow shower possible. Highs 39-46. Wind N 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 27-34.Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 40-47. wind NW 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (MARCH 11-15)

Active pattern returns. Watching a couple of potential storms with rain/mix/snow threats during this 5 day period heading into mid March. Temperatures near to below normal.

DAYS 11-15 (MARCH 16-20)

Active pattern continues. An additional storm threat or two with rain/mix/snow chances during the final several days of winter. Temperatures below normal.

DAYS 1-5 (MARCH 5-9)

A trough of low pressure swings through the region this morning with clouds and maybe a quick snow flurry here and there before we clear out. That trough will be ingested by a larger low pressure circulation to the east, and it is that low that will be the primary driver of our weather through the middle of the coming week with generally dry, breezy, chilly weather. The only “interruption” is a low pressure system that tries to run into things from the west on Tuesday, and makes it across our region with a band of snow or snow showers before being stopped and deflected southward, re-crossing our region as a decaying system as its absorbed by the larger low. A second shower or snow or possibly rain may occur in the area as this happens later Tuesday, leaving that as the only “unsettled” day of the next 5.

TODAY: Mostly cloudy this morning with a slight chance of a passing snow flurry, then a sun/cloud mix this afternoon. Highs 35-42. Wind NW increasing to 10-20 MPH.

TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 23-30. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

MONDAY: Sun and passing clouds. Highs 38-45. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, gusty.

MONDAY NIGHT: Clouds increase. Lows 28-35. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY: Cloudy with a period of snow or snow showers in the morning. Mostly cloudy with a passing rain or snow shower again later in the day. Highs 36-43. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, becoming N in the afternoon.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Lows 24-31. Wind N-NW 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy to partly sunny. Highs 37-44. Wind N 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Partly to mostly cloudy. Lows 27-34. Wind NNW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

THURSDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 38-45. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

DAYS 6-10 (MARCH 10-14)

Northwesterly air flow of mainly dry and chilly weather early in the period. Watching the March 11-13 period for potential storminess. Fair weather returns at the end of the period.

DAYS 11-15 (MARCH 15-18)

This period of time looks cooler to colder than normal and there can still be a threat or two of wintry weather from passing low pressure systems during this time frame.

DAYS 1-5 (MARCH 4-8)

A stormy Saturday with a variety of precipitation (snow to the north and away from the coast, some sleet, and rain closer to the coast and down to the south). As a secondary low pressure takes over from the primary one, and heads into the waters to our east, colder air wrapping into the system will change the rain back over to snow as it is in the process of tapering to showers, providing some additional accumulation in areas that saw a burst of snow first that then went to sleet and rain, so the overall snow accumulation forecast for the event as a whole is the same as previously, but this is a reminder that in a system with “mild” air, and precipitation transitions, you’re not going to “see” all of that snowfall on the ground at once. There is settling and melting that goes on as a part of the process. Storm exits overnight and early Sunday with a few lingering snow showers around on a trough, then we get into a northwesterly air flow of mainly dry and chilly weather for the rest of the weekend and the first half of next week, with the exception of a low pressure disturbance that has to pass close to or through the region on Tuesday, on its way to be absorbed by offshore low pressure. That is our only real shot of unsettled weather after this system during the rest of this 5-day period, and it wont’ be a big deal.

TODAY: Cloudy. Snow/sleet north, rain to the south, transitioning back to snow and snow showers from northwest to southeast with some additional accumulation bringing totals for the event to under 2 inches south and east of I-95 belt, 2-4 inches I-95 belt, 4-8 inches to the northwest of there. Highs 33-40. Wind E-NE 10-20 MPH inland and 20-30 MPH coast with higher gusts early, shifting to N 10-20 MPH and gusty midday-afternoon.

TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Chance of snow showers. Lows 25-32. Wind N to NW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

SUNDAY: Mostly cloudy with a chance of snow showers early morning. Sun and passing clouds thereafter. Highs 35-42. Wind NW 10-20 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 23-30. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

MONDAY: Sun and passing clouds. Highs 38-45. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, gusty.

MONDAY NIGHT: Clouds increase. Lows 28-35. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY: Cloudy with period of snow except rain or snow in coastal areas. Highs 36-43. Wind variable 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Lows 22-29. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Sunny to partly cloudy. Highs 37-44. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (MARCH 9-13)

Northwesterly air flow of mainly dry and chilly weather early in the period. Watching the March 11-13 period for potential storminess.

DAYS 11-15 (MARCH 14-17)

During the final full week of winter, expect near to below normal temperatures and the need to watch for one or two potential systems that can bring some frozen precipitation to the region.

DAYS 1-5 (MARCH 3-7)

High pressure provides us with a bright start to our Friday, but clouds streaming into the region ahead of our next storm system will filter and eventually blot out the sun as we move through the day. As yet another low pressure area heads for the Great Lakes, the synoptic set-up is rather similar to the low pressure area that impacted our region on Tuesday, but this time with just a slightly colder atmosphere – though not much colder. Redevelopment of low pressure will take place just to our south and the center of this one will move out along or just off the New England South Coast late tonight into Saturday. The precipitation shield arriving later tonight will do so as mainly snow for the region but there will be a rain/snow line probably around Cape Cod at the onset, maybe with some sleet along it as well, and that line will move from its initial point somewhat to the north, more so along the coast than over the interior, but nevertheless will do so, limiting snowfall accumulation in such a way that the distribution will be an increased snowfall gradient as you move north northwestward across the region. Steadiest precipitation will occur through Saturday morning with a midday break, but as low pressure heads seaward it will drag slightly colder air back in and a bit of a temperature drop may occur with the rain/snow line potentially collapsing back southeastward, especially Saturday afternoon. However as this happens the precipitation should become more spotty in nature, leaving us with just showers of snow, mix, and rain northwest to southeast across the region. A few additional snow showers may linger Saturday night into early Sunday as an inverted trough behind the storm swings through the region from north to south. In the wake of the system we will have dry and chilly weather with a gusty north to northwest wind for the balance of Sunday and into Monday too. Another low pressure system will move east southeast into the Northeast via the Great Lakes on Monday night and Tuesday, bringing some rain and snow shower activity to our region, but I don’t believe this system will have much organization and impact as it will be in the process of being absorbed by a larger low pressure circulation located to the east of New England.

TODAY: Sunshine followed by increasing cloudiness. Highs 36-43. Wind N up to 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Overcast. Snow arriving west to east late evening except as mix/rain Cape Cod. Steady snow overnight, possibly heavy for a while, except rain Cape Cod and snow turning to rain South Coast and eventually MA South Shore. Lows 29-36. Wind NE to E 5-15 MPH with gusts over 20 MPH inland, 15-30 MPH with gusts over 40 MPH coast, some over 50 MPH especially Cape Cod.

SATURDAY: Overcast through midday with snow southern NH and far northern MA, snow and sleet possibly mixed with rain Cape Ann MA down 128 to I-90 belt, and some mix but mostly rain to the south. Expected snow accumulation from little or nothing along the South Coast and Cape Cod to a coating to 2 inches just away from immediate South Coast to the MA South Shore, 2-4 inches Boston (maybe under 2 Logan Airport) to Cape Ann MA westward along the I-90 belt, 4-8 inches interior northeastern MA through central and north central MA northward through southern NH except possibly under 4 inches at the NH Seacoast. Mostly cloudy with lingering snow showers, except rain showers turning to snow showers to the south, during the afternoon. Highs 31-38. Wind E-NE 10-20 MPH inland and 20-30 MPH coast with higher gusts early, shifting to N 10-20 MPH and gusty midday-afternoon.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Chance of snow showers. Lows 25-32. Wind N to NW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

SUNDAY: Mostly cloudy with a chance of snow showers early morning. Sun and passing clouds afternoon. Highs 35-42. Wind NW 10-20 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Lows 18-25. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

MONDAY: Sun and passing clouds. Highs 37-44. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, gusty.

MONDAY NIGHT: Clouds increase. Lows 25-32. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY: Cloudy with period of snow except rain or snow in coastal areas. Highs 36-43. Wind variable 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (MARCH 8-12)

Overall set-up features low pressure east of New England and high pressure from Canada to the Midwest until mid period with a generally dry and chilly northwesterly air flow. Low to the east departs opening the door for a possible storm system to impact our region on the March 11-12 weekend with a more widespread precipitation potential.

DAYS 11-15 (MARCH 13-17)

During the final full week of winter, expect near to below normal temperatures and the need to watch for one or two potential systems that can bring some frozen precipitation to the region. Obviously far too soon for any attempt at detailing these potential events.

DAYS 1-5 (MARCH 2-6)

The very active pattern goes on, but light is at the end of the tunnel (or at the end of the 5-day)! First, low pressure sliding northeastward through the Ohio Valley toward the interior Northeast will redevelop just south and southeast of New England today before moving steadily and quickly seaward. This system brings a swath of rainfall to our region with an atmosphere too mild to support snow, but surface temperatures cold enough so that some of that rain will be in the form of freezing rain from the Worcester Hills to the Monadnock region of southwestern NH – so use extra caution if traveling in those areas. Temperatures will rise above freezing in these areas around mid morning, putting an end to any icing. Rainfall exits our region later this morning and we have a drying trend from midday on, with the potential for some breaks of sun before day’s end. A sliver of high pressure brings dry weather tonight into Friday, but clouds will already be streaming in quickly on Friday ahead of our next storm. When all is said and done, this low pressure system will behave similarly to our last couple more important storm systems, with a primary low heading for the Great Lakes and redeveloping to move out just south of New England. But as has been the case all winter and even with a more recent pattern change to slightly colder, we don’t have quite the setup for just a snow event, so there will be a variety of precipitation, with most snow to the north and far less to the south where more rain will be involved. The rain-snow line is a little tricky with this, with even at this stage some significant differences in guidance, but I’m not really changing my initial idea from yesterday, which will be reflected in my snowfall amounts in the detailed forecast). Steadiest precipitation window is 12 hours – midnight Friday night to noon Saturday. As slightly colder air overtakes the region behind the storm, a period of scattered snow showers will be with us from Saturday afternoon through Sunday morning as an inverted trough of low pressure (basically the remains of the primary low pressure area) swings through our region from northwest to southeast. The next phase of our late winter pattern emerges Monday with low pressure to the east, high pressure to the west, and a drier but chilly northwesterly air flow.

TODAY: Overcast this morning with rain likely (some freezing rain in portions of north central MA to southwestern NH for a while early), tapering off by late morning. Mostly cloudy this afternoon but a few breaks of sun are possible before the end of the day. Highs 40-47. Wind variable up to 10 MPH becoming NW 5-15 MPH later in the day.

TONIGHT: Clearing. Lows 18-25. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

FRIDAY: Increasing clouds. Highs 36-43. Wind N-NE up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Overcast. Snow arrives west to east but mixed with sleet/rain South Coast which then advances north toward I-90 overnight. Lows 28-35. Wind NE to E 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

SATURDAY: Overcast through midday with snow southern NH and far northern MA, snow and sleet possibly mixed with rain Cape Ann MA down 128 to I-90 belt, and some mix but mostly rain to the south. Expected snow accumulation from little or nothing along the South Coast to a coating to 2 inches just away from immediate South Coast to the MA South Shore, 2-4 inches Boston (maybe under 2 Logan Airport) to Cape Ann MA westward along the I-90 belt, 4-8 inches interior northeastern MA through central and north central MA northward through southern NH except possibly under 4 inches at the NH Seacoast. Mostly cloudy with lingering snow showers during the afternoon. Highs 31-38. Wind E-NE 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Chance of snow showers. Lows 25-32. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY: Mostly cloudy with a chance of snow showers during the morning. Partly sunny in the afternoon. Highs 35-42. Wind NW 10-20 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Lows 18-25. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

MONDAY: Sun and passing clouds. Highs 37-44. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, gusty.

DAYS 6-10 (MARCH 7-11)

Overall set-up features low pressure east of New England and high pressure from Canada to the Midwest through at least mid period with a generally dry and chilly northwesterly air flow, but not immune to a disturbance or two bringing a few snow showers. Pattern may relax enough to allow the next low pressure system from the west to approach by the end of the period.

DAYS 11-15 (MARCH 12-16)

Return to unsettled pattern for mid March including some lingering threats of wintry precipitation. Temperatures near to below normal.

DAYS 1-5 (MARCH 1-5)

February hands off its active pattern to March which will carry it well over its first several days. First, a weak area of high pressure brings bright and dry weather to our region early today, but clouds will quickly move in as a low pressure disturbance approaches from the west later in the day. This system will bring a period of precipitation tonight, mainly rain that may start as snow in some areas, especially in northern MA northward. It moves out quickly later this evening, but on its heels is another low center destined to pass just to our north during Thursday morning and midday. As it drags a frontal boundary through, a new low center will try forming on that, but with the system moving along, the wet weather it brings to us will be exiting during the afternoon as drier air arrives with its departure. But this break won’t be lasting all that long either as the next storm system in line will be heading our way for later Friday into the weekend. How I believe this one will play out looks somewhat similar to the last 2 larger systems we’ve had – low pressure heading for the Great Lakes but redeveloping and moving out just to the south of New England. There will be a cold high pressure in place to the north, but the temperature profile for the storm will be somewhat marginal, and the low’s track will help determine where we see frozen vs. liquid precipitation and any combination of the two. Will try to lock this in a bit more next update. Timing for the system is late Friday (likely evening precipitation onset) through Saturday morning for steadiest precipitation, then a tapering off later Saturday and occasional showers of mainly snow possible through Sunday as a trough of low pressure lingers behind the departing storm.

TODAY: Watch for black ice on untreated surfaces until mid morning! Sunshine followed by clouds. Highs 37-44. Wind W up to 10 MPH becoming variable.,

TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy with some evening rain, may start as snow in some areas especially north and west of Boston. Lows 30-37 early, rising slightly overnight. Wind variable up to 10 MPH becoming SE.

THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy. Periods of rain in the morning and midday, with pockets of freezing rain possible well north and west of Boston early. Highs 40-47. Wind variable up to 10 MPH becoming NW 5-15 MPH later in the day.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Lows 18-25. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

FRIDAY: Increasing clouds. Highs 36-43. Wind N-NE up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Overcast with snow/mix north, mix/ rain south. Lows 28-35. Wind NE to E 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

SATURDAY: Overcast with snow/mix north, snow/mix/rain south, steadiest in the morning. Early call snowfall potential – 4+ inches southern NH and northern MA, 2+ inches southern MA through northeastern CT and northern RI, under 2 inches South Coast. Highs 31-38. Wind E-NE 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Chance of snow showers. Lows 25-32. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of snow or rain showers. Highs 35-42. Wind NW 10-20 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (MARCH 6-10)

Overall northwesterly air flow with chilly weather and a drier trend, but one or two disturbance can bring some mainly snow showers at times.

DAYS 11-15 (MARCH 11-15)

Chilly regime continues with a more important storm threat possible heading toward mid month.

DAYS 1-5 (FEBRUARY 28 – MARCH 4)

A minor to moderate winter storm is in progress and will continue most of the day today on this final day of February. Its greatest impact in terms of snowfall takes place southwest and west of Boston where it snowed longest during dark hours, and also heaviest as the initial band of snow was strongest – starting to weaken and break up gradually while heading northeastward as the system producing it weakens gradually and gives way to a new low to the south. That low will head eastward and keep the precipitation going for much of the day, albeit somewhat limited by daylight and lack of intensity, but we’ll continue to slowly add to the accumulation as the day goes on bringing the region generally into the predicted ranges, again favoring the lower sides of those ranges in some areas, especially to the east and northeast where the snow arrived latest and did not have the initial intensity seen to the southwest. The system exits tonight and the rest of the forecast looks on track as well. March arrives with fair weather to start Wednesday, but a disturbance will return clouds to the region later in the day with a burst of rain showers by evening, that may start as snow showers in some areas especially northwest of Boston. This will be as a warm front approaches and passes. Then the frontal boundary sinks back through the region slowly during Thursday as low pressure rides along it, but milder air in place with this system means rain instead of snow. A quick return to colder air as this exits on Thursday evening, and then we watch our next winter storm threat later Friday into Saturday as low pressure heads this way. The track of that storm will help determine the precipitation profile for our region, but at the moment I am leaning toward a track just to the south of our region with enough cold air in place for frozen precipitation (snow and sleet) in much of the area for the event, but we’ll have to watch for freezing rain and/or rain to be involved, especially to the south.

TODAY: Overcast. Snow likely, may mix with or change to rain/drizzle South Coast, Cape Cod, and possibly Cape Ann MA in the afternoon before tapering off. Snowfall accumulations 1-3 inches South Coast / Cape Cod as well as Cape Ann MA, 3-5 inches MA South Shore, inland eastern RI, remainder of MA North Shore, I-95 belt, 5-8 inches interior southern NH, central MA, and northeastern CT and interior western RI. Highs 30-37. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: An early snow flurry north and west and a bit of drizzle south and east possible otherwise clearing. Lows 20-27. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Sun gives way to clouds. Highs 37-44. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy with some rain, may start as snow in some areas. Lows 30-37 early, rising slightly overnight. Wind variable up to 10 MPH becoming SW 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy. Rain showers likely, ending later in the day. Highs 40-47. Wind SW 5-15 MPH becoming variable to N, then NW 10-20 MPH with higher gusts late in the day.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Lows 18-25. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

FRIDAY: Increasing clouds. Chance of snow/mix late day. Highs 30-37. Wind N-NE up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Overcast with snow/mix likely. Lows 26-33. Wind NE 10-20 MPH.

SATURDAY: Snow/mix tapering off. Highs 30-37. Wind NE-N 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (MARCH 5-9)

Watching the March 6-8 period for potential unsettled weather from one or two systems which may include additional frozen precipitation. Temperatures near to below normal.

DAYS 11-15 (MARCH 10-14)

General idea is for continued colder than normal but a little less frequent storm activity, though still some wintry precipitation threat before the period is over.

DAYS 1-5 (FEBRUARY 27 – MARCH 3)

A minor to moderate winter storm is inbound, and will impact us late tonight through Tuesday after a small area of high pressure starts us with fair weather today. Low pressure heads into the Great Lakes and its center elongates, a pathway to a new developing low that will then track eastward just to the south of New England during Tuesday. This will bring a light to moderate snowfall to our region, with enough warm air involved for some mixing with or turning to rain along the South Coast, and possibly South Shore up toward Boston toward the end of the event, after most of the snow accumulation has occurred. The storm exits Tuesday night and we clear out. Say hello to March on Wednesday with a small area of high pressure and fair weather, but this gets scooted along quickly by an approaching warm front which will bring clouds back and some evening precipitation (probably snow or mix to rain). Unsettled weather will be ours on Thursday as the low parenting the warm front will track just to our north, putting us on the mild side initially, then pulling its cold front through during the day with rain showers, and eventually a return to colder/drier weather by evening. Another weak area of high pressure will move across the region by early Friday, a day that starts dry and cold, but more clouds will be streaming into the region ahead of the next storm in our active pattern. This system may be moving quickly enough so that we are into its precipitation shield as early as Friday late afternoon or evening, but this timing will be monitored and refined as the week goes along…

TODAY: Patchy clouds early, then lots of sun during the morning. Sunshine fading behind increasing high to middle cloudiness during the afternoon. Highs 33-40. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Overcast. Snow arrives late evening and overnight. Lows 22-29. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY: Overcast. Snow likely, may mix with or change to rain/drizzle South Coast, Cape Cod, and possibly Cape Ann MA in the afternoon before tapering off. Snowfall accumulations 1-3 inches South Coast / Cape Cod as well as Cape Ann MA, 3-5 inches MA South Shore, inland eastern RI, remainder of MA North Shore, I-95 belt, 5-8 inches interior southern NH, central MA, and northeastern CT and interior western RI. Highs 30-37. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: An early snow flurry possible otherwise clearing. Lows 20-27. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Sun gives way to clouds. Highs 37-44. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy with some rain, may start as snow in some areas. Lows 30-37 early, rising slightly overnight. Wind variable up to 10 MPH becoming SW 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy. Rain showers likely, ending later in the day. Highs 40-47. Wind SW 5-15 MPH becoming variable to N, then NW 10-20 MPH with higher gusts late in the day.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Lows 18-25. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

FRIDAY: Increasing clouds. Chance of snow/mix late day or night. Highs 30-37. Wind N-NE up to 10 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (MARCH 4-8)

Active pattern – watching low pressure areas to bring potential wintry precipitation threats March 4 and 6-7. Temperatures near to below normal.

DAYS 11-15 (MARCH 9-13)

General idea is for continued colder than normal but a drier, less active pattern in terms of storm threats.

DAYS 1-5 (FEBRUARY 26 – MARCH 2)

For those awake last evening in a good portion of the region you may have been witness to a beautiful and somewhat rare style of snowfall in this area. Now rare and snowfall has been used together this winter several times because of the lack of snowfalls in a very mild, nearly snowless winter pattern, but this is a different kind of rare snowfall – perfect hexagonal snowflakes falling in calm air from a sky that includes some clearing enough at one point to see the moon, Venus, and Jupiter shining brightly before they set. So both rare and a bit unique. This was the end portion of a snowfall event that even slightly over-performed model and meteorologist expectations, dropping a good 1/2 to 2 inches of low water content fluff over much of the region. This was due to relatively warmer air riding up and over a cold dome of air in place and the recipe was just there for it all to happen that way. This morning, a low level inversion results in some very spotty freezing and/or frozen drizzle, then later today, we may see some additional flakes from a passing low pressure area, the center of which will scoot just north of the region this afternoon, allowing us to warm up a little over yesterday’s chill. This system won’t produce much other than a rain or snow shower to the south, with most of the snow shower activity concentrated to the north of I-90. A few of these showers of snow may put down a quick new coating, briefly slicking up some roads and walks. The system is outta here this evening and a small area of high pressure will then build in overnight into Monday with dry weather. We’ll see clouds advancing during Monday, thickening up later in the day, ahead of a well-advertised winter storm system approaching. This one is going to be a light to moderate snowfall for our region. Model guidance tends to under-estimate the scope of the cold air hanging on with these systems, so I expect this to be a mainly snow event for the WHW forecast area, beginning late Monday night and lasting well into Tuesday, with just some potential for rain to become involved right on the South Coast / Cape Cod before the main precipitation ends Tuesday afternoon. The system won’t have much wind with it for our area as we will be between a primary low that travels into the Great Lakes and a secondary low that forms and moves out south of New England, with not that expansive a circulation, kind of an elongated system, stretched west-to-east. Exit this system Tuesday night, and in builds a small area of high pressure to bring fair weather for the first day of March. But the active pattern will roll on and another low pressure system will impact our region Thursday. Early indications are that this one is destined to have milder air in place for its arrival and take a track a little further north, with a mix/rain event more in the cards versus a snowy one, but at day 5 I’m not ready to lock that idea in just yet, so we’ll see how it goes.

TODAY: Mostly cloudy. Spotty freezing/frozen drizzle this morning. Chance of snow showers north of I-90 and a possible mix/rain shower I-90 belt south in the afternoon. Highs 33-40. Wind calm early, then SW-S 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Clearing. Lows 20-27. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY: Sunshine followed by increasing clouds. Highs 35-42. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Overcast. Snow arrives late evening and overnight. Lows 22-29. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY: Overcast. Snow likely, may mix with rain before ending South Coast. Snowfall accumulations 1-3 inches South Coast / Cape Cod, 3-5 inches MA South Shore, inland RI, MA North Shore, I-95 belt, 5-8 inches interior southern NH, central MA, and northeastern CT. Higher probability for the lower sides of the ranges to verify than the upper sides. Highs 30-37. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: An early snow flurry possible otherwise clearing. Lows 20-27. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Sun/cloud mix. Highs 37-44. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Clouds increase. Lows 30-37. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of rain/mix. Highs 40-47. Wind SE 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (MARCH 3-7)

Active pattern – watching low pressure areas to bring potential wintry precipitation threats March 4 and 6-7. Temperatures near to below normal.

DAYS 11-15 (MARCH 8-12)

General idea is for continued colder than normal but a drier, less active pattern in terms of storm threats.