C-19 Chat Post – 7-5-2022

DAYS 1-5 (JULY 4-8)

Happy Independence Day! This will be a top 10 summer day across our area with high pressure in control, sunshine and a few decorative high cloud patches, and maybe a few fair-weather clouds popping up during the day. The air will be dry and the temperature generally in the range that is comfortable for anyone outside for both daytime (remember sun screen!) and evening (remember insect repellent!) activities. The overall weather pattern we’ve entered the summer in remains with us though, and we’ll be seeing a disturbance move through out region from northwest to southeast Tuesday, bringing more cloudiness and some unsettled weather. However we may get through a lot of the day without rainfall threatening – just having some showers pass by mostly to the north in the morning, with a warm front, and a shower/thunderstorm threat holding off until the nighttime hours, with a cold front. This system exits early Wednesday, and high pressure builds in with fair weather for midweek, then slides away later in the week as the next disturbance approaches with unsettled weather returning for Friday.

TODAY (INDEPENDENCE DAY): Mostly sunny. Highs 81-88, cooler coastal areas. Dew point 50s. Wind NW up to 10 MPH but some coastal sea breezes midday-afternoon.

TONIGHT: Partly cloudy evening. Mostly cloudy overnight. Lows 58-65. Dew point 50s. Wind NW under 10 MPH shifting to S overnight.

TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy with a chance of showers favoring northern MA and southern NH in the morning. Partly sunny afternoon. Highs 78-85, cooler South Coast. Dew point rising to lower to middle 60s. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy with a chance of showers/thunderstorms. Patchy fog. Lows 60-67. Dew point lower 60s. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 78-85, coolest coast. Dew point near 60. Wind variable up to 10 MPH with coastal sea breezes.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 60-67. Dew point below 60. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 78-85, coolest coast. Dew point under 60. Wind variable up to 10 MPH with coastal sea breezes.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Lows 60-67. Dew point under 60. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of showers, possibly thunderstorms. Highs 76-83. Dew point over 60. Wind variable 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JULY 9-13)

High pressure is expected to bring fair, dry weather for July 9-10 weekend. High pressure shifts to the south and a boundary sits north of to near the region with higher humidity and an increased chance of showers and thunderstorms later in the period.

DAYS 11-15 (JULY 14-18)

High pressure in control most of this period. Near to above normal temperatures, mostly dry weather with continued limited rain chances.

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C-19 Chat Post – 7-4-2022

DAYS 1-5 (JULY 3-7)

Short and sweet update here. Cold front has pushed offshore. Dew points have been lowering from northwest to southeast and this trend will continue today. We start with an extensive high cloud shield over the region but this will gradually clear away and the limited sun will become brighter by midday onward with just a few fair-weather cumulus popping up to decorate the sky, so it does turn out to be a wonderful Sunday, and this great weather will continue through the Monday Independence Day holiday too. Look for some coastal sea breezes though as we’ll have fairly light wind. Our only unsettled weather day in this 5-day forecast is Tuesday, which will feature clouds and a shower chance as a disturbance moves in from the northwest. This is much more quickly and of shorter-duration than medium range guidance had this just a few days ago, so here’s another example about what us meteorologists say about trusting guidance too much too far out and using it wisely. High pressure returns by midweek with fair weather and pleasant air.

TODAY: Limited sun morning. Brighter sun and a few clouds afternoon. Highs 80-87. Dew point 50s Boston north and west, 60s elsewhere, with a lowering trend. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 60-67. Dew point below 60. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY (INDEPENDENCE DAY): Mostly sunny. Highs 81-88, cooler some coastal areas. Dew point below 60. Wind NW up to 10 MPH but some coastal sea breezes possible.

MONDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear to partly cloudy. Lows 58-65. Dew point lower 50s. Wind NW under 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Showers likely and a chance of thunderstorms, especially afternoon. Highs 76-83. Dew point rising into 60s. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy with a chance of showers/thunderstorms evening. Partly cloudy overnight. Patchy fog. Lows 60-67. Dew point lower 60s. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 78-85, coolest coast. Dew point near 60. Wind variable up to 10 MPH with coastal sea breezes.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 60-67. Dew point below 60. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 78-85, coolest coast. Dew point under 60. Wind variable up to 10 MPH with coastal sea breezes.

DAYS 6-10 (JULY 8-12)

Limited rainfall chances to probably one disturbance passing by mid period. Low humidity and near normal temperatures to start the period, possibly replaced by warmer and more humid weather later in the period.

DAYS 11-15 (JULY 13-17)

High pressure in control most of this period. Near to above normal temperatures, mostly dry weather with continued limited rain chances.

C-19 Chat Post – 7-3-2022

DAYS 1-5 (JULY 2-6)

An unsettled Saturday. That’s what we have. But we’ll have our “quiet times” around the region today too. A batch of showers and thunderstorms rolled across New England, thunder focused more toward the South Coast, in the pre-dawn to shortly-after-dawn time frame, and is heading offshore as I write this update. We’ll be vulnerable to showers and thunderstorms at any time here in the WHW today until this evening, but the tendency will be for the threat to diminish from northwest to southeast late-day / evening as a cold front slides through the region. If you have outdoor plans today, keep a very close eye on the weather. Any storms that do occur can be strong to severe. When it’s done, most people won’t see severe weather at all, but those that do can get a pretty solid hit. It’s very important to keep this in mind in any case, but even more so with this being a holiday weekend and many outdoor things going on. After today’s “headache” though, it’s clear sailing for Sunday and Independence Day Monday, as high pressure takes over and sends a refreshing Canadian air mass into our area. Tuesday looks more humid and unsettled as a disturbance moves into the region on a northwesterly air flow aloft, but this should be departing by Wednesday with some improvement in the weather.

TODAY: Mostly cloudy to partly sunny. Showers and thunderstorms possible at any time, with any thunderstorms potentially strong to locally severe. Highs 79-86. Dew point upper 60s to near 70. Wind SW 5-15 MPH, possible higher gusts.

TONIGHT: Variably cloudy with isolated showers/thunderstorms evening. Clearing overnight. Lows 61-68. Dew point falling to 50s north of I-90 but hanging in the lower 60s to the south. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY: Lingering clouds South Coast early, otherwise mostly sunny. Highs 80-87. Dew point middle to upper 50s except lower 60s South Coast early. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 60-67. Dew point below 60. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY (INDEPENDENCE DAY): Sun/cloud mix. Highs 81-88, cooler some coastal areas. Dew point below 60. Wind W up to 10 MPH but some coastal sea breezes possible.

MONDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear to partly cloudy. Lows 58-65. Dew point lower 50s. Wind W under 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Showers likely and a chance of thunderstorms, especially afternoon. Highs 76-83. Dew point rising into 60s. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy with a chance of showers/thunderstorms evening. Partly cloudy overnight. Patchy fog. Lows 60-67. Dew point lower 60s. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 78-85, coolest coast. Dew point near 60. Wind variable up to 10 MPH with coastal sea breezes.

DAYS 6-10 (JULY 7-11)

Two disturbances should move through the region with a west to northwest flow during this period bringing opportunities for showers/thunderstorms for relatively brief periods of time. Temperatures ups and downs with air mass changes but no extreme heat or cool anticipated during this time frame.

DAYS 11-15 (JULY 12-16)

Weaker westerly flow and more high pressure to the south should allow for warmth and somewhat higher humidity to be the rule but with limited shower and thunderstorm opportunities.

C-19 Chat Post – 7-2-2022

DAYS 1-5 (JULY 1-5)

On this first day of July, many people begin a multi-day holiday weekend, so basically we treat this 5-day period like it’s one extended weekend, and weather-wise, it’s going to be a pretty good one as far as summertime weekends go. No, it’s not going to be perfect. We have some heat in the forecast, some thunderstorms in the forecast, and some wonderfully warm and dry weather as well. High pressure slides offshore today and in comes the heat. But the humidity is not going to jump up right away. That’s actually going to spike later today, mainly this evening, tonight, and into Saturday. On the heading edge of this “dew point boundary” we may see an isolated thunderstorm or two fire up somewhere in the WHW forecast area this afternoon, but I would not cancel any plans over it. Just keep an eye out for building clouds and if you hear thunder, be ready to move to a place of safety while any storm passes by your area. The most likely time for this to happen is mid to late afternoon. Tonight, the storm threat vanishes in the evening but returns overnight as a disturbance moves through the region. Another disturbance brings the chance of a couple morning showers and thunderstorms Saturday as we sit in the soupy air. And finally a cold front will slice across the region from northwest to southeast Saturday midday and afternoon, finally exiting via the South Coast during the evening hours. This front will trigger the best chance of thunderstorms, in terms of coverage and intensity, but it will likely take the place of one line or a couple line segments. Any of these storms can become strong to severe, so anybody with outdoor plans should be very aware of the weather Saturday. From Saturday evening on through Sunday as well as Independence Day Monday, it’s “clear sailing” with a Canadian air mass arriving and providing great weather. When we get to Tuesday, we’ll be eyeing the approach of a disturbance from the northwest which at least brings clouds, and perhaps a shower and thunderstorm chance. Some fine-tuning is needed for this, as quick-moving disturbances are hard to time beyond a couple days in advance.

TODAY: Sun/cloud mix. Isolated thunderstorms mid to late afternoon. Highs 88-95, cooler South Coast. Dew point ranging from middle 50s north and west to middle 60s South Coast through early afternoon, rising to middle to upper 60s all areas later. Wind SW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts by late in the day.

TONIGHT: Partly cloudy evening. Variably cloudy overnight with isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms possible. Lows 67-74. Dew point upper 60s. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY: Variably cloudy. A shower or thunderstorm possible early, then a passing shower or thunderstorm during the afternoon and early evening from west northwest to east southeast across the region, with any thunderstorms potentially strong to locally severe. Highs 85-92, cooler South Coast. Dew point rising to upper 60s to around 70 through early afternoon, then falling slightly especially in northwestern areas by late day. Wind SW 10-20 MPH except variable with potential strong gusts near storms, shifting to W from northwest to southeast later in the day.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Evening showers and thunderstorms possible, mainly South Coast. Areas of fog especially South Coast. Lows 62-69. Dew point falling to upper 50s north of I-90 but staying in 60s to the south. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY: Lingering clouds South Coast early, otherwise mostly sunny. Highs 80-87. Dew point middle to upper 50s except lower 60s South Coast early. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 60-67. Dew point below 60. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY (INDEPENDENCE DAY): Sun/cloud mix. Highs 81-88, cooler some coastal areas. Wind W up to 10 MPH but some coastal sea breezes possible.

MONDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear to partly cloudy. Lows 58-65. Wind W under 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Increasing clouds. A shower or thunderstorm possible. Highs 76-83, coolest coast. Wind variable up to 10 MPH with coastal sea breezes.

DAYS 6-10 (JULY 6-10)

Two disturbances should move through the region with a west to northwest flow during this period bringing opportunities for showers/thunderstorms for relatively brief periods of time, and some variable temperatures but not straying that far from normal.

DAYS 11-15 (JULY 11-15)

Weaker westerly flow and more high pressure to the south should allow for warmth and somewhat higher humidity to be the rule but with limited shower and thunderstorm opportunities.

C-19 Chat Post – 7-1-2022

DAYS 1-5 (JUNE 30 – JULY 4)

The disturbance that I’d been eyeing for several days for Wednesday night to produce a passing shower and possible thunderstorm certainly did that, especially in northern MA and southern NH where a good batch of storms occurred. There was no severe weather, but many saw downpours and a good lightning show for a while late late evening. That cleared out later and is now gone, and the only speed bump in the next 5 days is a cold front passing through on Saturday with a shower and thunderstorm threat. Otherwise, we have lots of great early summertime weather in store for us. High pressure will bring fair weather today with lots of sun, few clouds, manageable dew points, and warm air – a great final day of June! High pressure shifts offshore on Friday and delivers the heat to our region, although the dew point will be slow to rise, so while it turns out to be a hot day, it won’t be oppressively humid. However, the humidity will spike more noticeably Friday night as a warm front slides across the region (really more a dew point boundary than a true air mass front). These types of boundaries can kick off showers and thunderstorms sometimes, and there is that chance later Friday night (mostly during the overnight hours). This will lead to several hours of more oppressive humidity through midday Saturday, and a little longer for southern MA, CT, and RI. A cold front will be moving into and across the region starting by midday and taking until evening to reach the South Coast region. While this front will be ready to deliver drier air, it will also trigger showers and thunderstorms which have the potential to be strong to locally severe. The exact timing of showers and storms for each location is uncertain obviously, but the general idea is that the threat will start by early afternoon in southern NH through central MA then progress east southeastward to the South Coast by the evening hours where it may linger for a while. Locations mostly north of the Mass Pike likely see improvement for any Saturday evening fireworks displays. Overnight, drier air will flow into the region, but it will remain muggy along the South Coast into Sunday morning before the drier air finally arrives there. Some guidance has showers lingering along the South Coast into the morning as well, but at this point I am optimistic these will have largely moved offshore and that Sunday will be a dry day region-wide with lots of sun, some fair-weather clouds, warm air, but much lower humidity than Saturday. And right now it also looks like the high pressure area that brings this weather for Sunday will hold its influence for Independence Day Monday with a sun/cloud mix (sun dominating), seasonable warmth, and fairly low humidity. Many outdoor activities and evening fireworks displays take place both Sunday and Monday, and the weather looks great for it all…

TODAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 78-85. Dew point lower 50s. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 58-65. Dew point middle 50s. Wind WSW up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 88-95, cooler South Coast. Dew point upper 50s to lower 60s. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy evening. Variably cloudy overnight with isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms possible. Lows 67-74. Dew point rising to middle 60s. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY: Variably cloudy. A shower or thunderstorm possible early, then a passing shower or thunderstorm during the afternoon and early evening from west northwest to east southeast across the region, with any thunderstorms potentially strong to locally severe. Highs 85-92, cooler South Coast. Dew point rising to upper 60s to around 70 through early afternoon, then falling slightly especially in northwestern areas by late day. Wind SW 10-20 MPH except variable with potential strong gusts near storms, shifting to W from northwest to southeast later in the day.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Evening showers and thunderstorms possible, mainly South Coast. Areas of fog especially South Coast. Lows 62-69. Dew point falling to upper 50s north of I-90 but staying in 60s to the south. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY: Lingering clouds South Coast early, otherwise mostly sunny. Highs 80-87. Dew point middle to upper 50s except lower 60s South Coast early. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 60-67. Dew point below 60. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY (INDEPENDENCE DAY): Sun/cloud mix. Highs 81-88, cooler some coastal areas. Wind W up to 10 MPH but some coastal sea breezes possible.

DAYS 6-10 (JULY 5-9)

Two disturbances should move through the region with a west to northwest flow during this period bringing opportunities for showers/thunderstorms for relatively brief periods of time, and some variable temperatures but not straying that far from normal.

DAYS 11-15 (JULY 10-14)

Weaker westerly flow and more high pressure to the south should allow for warmth and somewhat higher humidity to be the rule but with limited shower and thunderstorm opportunities.

C-19 Chat Post – 6-30-2022

DAYS 1-5 (JUNE 29 – JULY 3)

The feel of summer builds over the next few days as we head toward the holiday weekend. High pressure #1 sits atop us today with dry, warm weather, light wind, and cooling coastal sea breezes. A quick interruption takes place tonight as a trough moves quickly across the region with a late evening shower threat, but it’s gone overnight and another high pressure area moves in for Thursday which will be a great day to end of the month of June. This high slides offshore and cue the heat for Friday, the first of July. However, humidity will be slow to increase so we’ll hold off on the really muggy feel until later Friday night and into Saturday. Saturday is the only unsettled daytime in this stretch, as we’ll have a cold front moving across the region. The timing of this front will determine when the greatest threat of a shower or thunderstorm is, but the general idea is it looks like a midday and afternoon event at this point, from northwest to southeast, starting first in sotuhwestern NH and central MA, starting later and lasting into evening toward the South Coast and Cape Cod. Still, fine-tuning is left to do with this. High pressure builds toward us from Canada Sunday which looks like a great summer day – warm but much lower humidity.

TODAY: Sunny to partly cloudy. Highs 77-84, coolest coast. Dew point lower 50s. Wind variable up to 10 MPH with coastal sea breezes developing.

TONIGHT: Variably cloudy. Chance of a passing shower with a slight chance of a thunderstorm, favoring central MA and southern NH. Lows 60-67. Dew point upper 50s. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 78-85. Dew point lower 50s. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 58-65. Dew point middle 50s. Wind WSW up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 88-95, cooler South Coast. Dew point upper 50s to lower 60s. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 67-74. Dew point lower to middle 60s. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY: Partly sunny. Chance of showers and thunderstorms midday and afternoon. Highs 85-92, cooler South Coast. Dew point middle to upper 60s. Wind SW 10-20 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Evening showers and thunderstorms possible, mainly South Coast. Lows 62-69. Dew point falling through 60s into 50s from northwest to southeast. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 78-85. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JULY 4-8)

High pressure should hold control of the weather through July 4 into July 5 with a warming trend. A little faster timing on guidance today for the next shower and thunderstorm threat, possibly by late July 5, but have to watch this for changes. A couple more disturbances later in the period bring additional shower and thunderstorm threats and a slight cooling trend.

DAYS 11-15 (JULY 9-13)

High pressure / dry air early period. Higher humidity / shower and thunderstorm threat later in the period based on current expected trends.

C-19 Chat Post – 6-29-2022

DAYS 1-5 (JUNE 28 – JULY 2)

High pressure will bring two wonderful early summer days today and Wednesday, and Thursday says “hey wait, I wanna be wonderful too!” Well, I think it will. The details of each day will be determined by the position of governing high pressure, which sitting to our west today brings mild and dry air with a general land breeze, and sitting overhead Wednesday brings lighter wind, warming air, but cooling coastal sea breezes. But we have a little interruption Wednesday night to deal with, that many people may not even notice, and that’s a trough sliding across the area from west to east. This weak, fast-moving system will bring clouds and perhaps a passing shower, but will be gone before the sun comes up Thursday, which will be a bright and warmer day as another high builds in. By Friday, this high will slide offshore into the perfect position to deliver us some summer heat, and an increase in humidity, though not to oppressive levels on that particular day. We will get our humidity spike on Saturday as a cold front approaches, triggering the chance of showers and thunderstorms. The coverage and intensity of showers and storms will be depending on the sun’s heating before the front’s arrival and the timing of the front as it crosses the area. This aspect of the forecast will be fine-tuned as we draw closer to its occurrence, so for now the forecast wording will be more generalized.

TODAY: Sun with passing clouds. Highs 76-83. Dew point near 50. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: A few clouds early, then clear. Lows 53-60. Dew point near 50. Wind N under 10 MPH early, then calm.

WEDNESDAY: Sunny to partly cloudy. Highs 77-84, coolest coast. Dew point lower 50s. Wind variable up to 10 MPH with coastal sea breezes developing.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Chance of a passing shower. Lows 60-67. Dew point upper 50s. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 78-85. Dew point lower 50s. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 58-65. Dew point middle 50s. Wind WSW up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 88-95, cooler South Coast. Dew point upper 50s to lower 60s. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 67-74. Dew point lower to middle 60s. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY: Partly sunny. Chance of showers and thunderstorms. Highs 85-92, cooler South Coast. Dew point middle to upper 60s. Wind SW 10-20 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JULY 3-7)

High pressure is expected to be in control of the weather for July 3-5 with fair weather, refreshing Canadian air to start then a warming trend following. Disturbances from the west bring increased humidity and the chance of showers / thunderstorms later in the period.

DAYS 11-15 (JULY 8-12)

Shower/thunderstorm risk early in the period then high pressure takes over with fair weather, drier at first then more humid again later in the period when the shower/thunderstorm risk may return.

C-19 Chat Post – 6-28-2022