DAYS 1-5 (APRIL 13-17)

A warm front approaches today with a considerable amount of cloud cover, but not really a bad day at all – not too windy, fairly mild for mid April. It’s tonight when we see more cloudiness and some chance of light rainfall as the front enters the vicinity. It still looks like that boundary will come to a halt, somewhat bisecting our region with much of eastern MA and southern NH being on the cool side Thursday while to the southwest it warms nicely – a set-up not atypical of spring at all. Meanwhile, the low pressure parenting the boundary will also be sending another front eastward out of NY/PA into New England at night, and a pretty solid area of thunderstorms will have formed with it, and push into and eventually across our region during the night, weakening as it does so while running into increasingly stable air. However, it still can be good for some downpours and rumbles of thunder. Friday, it all moves off to the east and we get into at first a northerly flow behind a developing low pressure wave, and then eventually a westerly flow as the day goes on – turning out to be fair and rather mild. This is good news for opening day at Fenway Park. Low pressure still has to move eastward and pass north of our region, and will do so during Saturday. Somewhat similar to the set-up we had last week, we’ll find another disturbance moving along the eastern side of that larger low, and a cold front will swing its way across New England later Saturday. Ahead of it we get a mild day, and how dry it stays during the day will depend on the timing of the front and the showers (and possible thunderstorms) it triggers. For now I’m optimistic we make it through most of the day rain-free, but if you are making weekend plans, keep in mind this shower threat. For Sunday (Easter for those celebrating), we end up with a nice dry day, but the trade-off will be a cool breeze that arrives behind the cold front…

TODAY: Partly sunny to mostly cloudy. Highs 57-64, coolest coast. Wind variable to SE up to 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Periods of light rain. Lows 43-50. Wind SE to S up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of light rain favoring northern and eastern areas early in the day. Chance of drizzle NH Seacoast and MA East Coast. Chance of rain showers from west to east later in the day. Highs 50-57 southeastern NH and northeastern MA, 58-65 southeastern NH and eastern MA to RI and 66-73 central MA to northeastern CT except cooler along the South Coast. Wind NE-E 5-15 MPH most of eastern and northeastern MA and southern NH, variable to SW 5-15 MPH south central MA, northeastern CT, RI, and MA South Coast.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy with rain showers likely including the chance of thunderstorms, especially west of Boston. Lows 47-54. Wind variable 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy with patchy fog and a chance of drizzle early, then partly to mostly sunny. Highs 63-70, probably occurring late in the day, except cooler in some coastal areas especially Cape Cod. Wind N up to 10 MPH in the morning becoming W and increasing to 10-20 MPH during the afternoon.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 42-49. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY: Mostly sunny morning. Variably cloudy afternoon with a chance of rain showers and thunderstorms especially late-day. Highs 61-68 except cooler South Coast / Cape Cod. Wind SW 10-20 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy with a chance of showers and possible thunderstorms in the evening, then clearing. Lows 42-47. Wind SW 5-15 MPH with higher gusts, shifting to NW.

SUNDAY: Sun and passing clouds. Highs 52-59. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, gusty.

DAYS 6-10 (APRIL 18-22)

April 18 (Patriots Day for ME, MA, and CT), “Marathon Monday”, and the traditional late morning first-pitch Red Sox home game, and the weather looks just fine! A little bit on the cooler side, especially in the morning, but we are looking at high pressure bringing fair weather, although we’ll see increasing high cloudiness well in advance of our next unsettled threat. While this is day 6, the set-up we should have probably can allow for a sea breeze so you can take this into account if you plan to be at Fenway or along the Boston Marathon route closer to the city – obviously too soon for timing and details but putting the idea out there now for advance planning reasons, and will fine-tune. Looking at the threat of rain and even interior higher elevation snow for April 19 and another potential unsettled weather threat by the end of this period as we stay in an active weather pattern.

DAYS 11-15 (APRIL 23-28)

Still low confidence on the outlook but staying with the idea of a zonal flow upper pattern and temperatures more likely to be on the cooler side of normal as the chilly air from Canada has the edge on its battle with the warmer air to the south. A couple of unsettled weather threats likely result from this battle zone and disturbances coming along the jet stream.

C-19 Chat Post – 4-13-2022

DAYS 1-5 (APRIL 12-16)

Step 1: Try to bring these 5 days into a little more focus. With so much going on, the time of year, and touchy guidance, it’s a task to sort things in enough detail for a useful forecast, but here we go, with the process to be repeated for many days to come it seems. Today, a warm front went through overnight and early this morning, and a cold front will be coming along in short order – late morning and midday. Until around noon or so we run the chance for rain showers across the WHW forecast area. Ironically behind the cold front is when we’ll actually warm up as we combine a drying west to northwest wind, down sloping off hills / mountains, with higher April sun angle as the sky clears out. But tonight somewhat cooler air will be more felt, especially as a brisk breeze continues to blow. Wednesday, we’ll already see increasing clouds ahead of our next weather system, as its warm front approaches. This system is to be more complex than the one passing now. The parent low pressure area will be maturing and it will already be a redevelopment of this system that moves through the Great Lakes and stacks up with an upper low between there and Hudson Bay in Canada. When this happens we usually see an arcing frontal system way out ahead of the parent low, in occlusion mode, and that’s what we will see moving into our region. Will the warm front make it into southern New England? Yes, most likely. Will it make it all the way across the WHW forecast area? Probably not. I figure a cut-off zone somewhere around the MA South Shore to perhaps northern Worcester County of MA or southwestern NH Thursday, with a resultant big temperature contrast from northeast to southwest across the region, as well as a lot of clouds, some drizzle possible on the cool side of the boundary where wind will be coming off the Atlantic, and then an increasing chance of rain showers west to east later in the day and at night as the then occluding frontal system (cold front catching up to warm front) moves in and passes through. A weak wave of low pressure that forms on that front as it slowly goes by may delay our improvement on Friday, but it will eventually turn out to be a nice day as we get into a drying westerly air flow, especially during the afternoon, just in time for opening day at Fenway Park. While we have that nicer weather, the original low pressure system that causes the Thursday’s conglomeration will still be over interior southeastern Canada, but far enough away not to bother us with any unsettled weather. This system will still have an impact on the start of our weekend, however, as it the entire circulation will help spawn another disturbance that will drag its cold front into our region by later Saturday, with the chance for rain showers. While timing on this is iffy, we should be able to get through at least part of Saturday without that threat.

TODAY: Mostly cloudy with a chance of rain showers during the morning. Mostly sunny afternoon. Highs 63-70, cooler Cape Cod and a few other coastal areas. Wind SW 5-15 MPH morning, NW 10-20 MPH afternoon.

TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 41-48. Wind NW 5-15 MPH early, diminishing and becoming variable.

WEDNESDAY: Increasing clouds. Highs 57-64, coolest coast. Wind variable to SE up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Chance of light rain. Lows 43-50. Wind SE to S up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of light rain favoring northern and eastern areas early in the day. Chance of drizzle NH Seacoast and MA East Coast. Chance of rain showers from west to east later in the day. Highs 50-58 southeastern NH and northeastern MA, 58-65 southeastern NH and eastern MA to RI and 65-72 central MA to northeastern CT except cooler along the South Coast. Wind NE-E 5-15 MPH most of eastern and northeastern MA and southern NH, variable to SW 5-15 MPH south central MA, northeastern CT, RI, and MA South Coast.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy with rain showers likely. Lows 47-54. Wind variable 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy with patchy fog and a chance of drizzle early, then partly to mostly sunny. Highs 63-70, probably occurring late in the day, except cooler in some coastal areas especially Cape Cod. Wind variable up to 10 MPH early becoming W and increasing to 10-20 MPH during the afternoon.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 42-49. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY: Mostly sunny morning. Variably cloudy afternoon with a chance of rain showers especially late-day. Highs 60-67. Wind SW 10-20 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (APRIL 17-21)

Step 2 is to try to make a little more sense of this 5-day period, and right now it looks like the front that goes by later Saturday will set us up for a dry, breezy, and cool Sunday April 17, which is Easter for those celebrating. Next day, April 18, Patriots Day, Marathon Monday, morning first-pitch Sox game, is a traditionally busy New England day with weather always under a microscope. At that time I believe we’ll see dry weather to start, but it may not stay that way until day’s end. It also looks like we’ll be on the cooler side of normal for temperatures, and I wonder if by nighttime we even see some interior higher elevation snowfall with the precipitation that threatens with the arrival and passage of low pressure. Many details to iron out on this. Leaning toward drier weather for the middle and end of this period, but may have to watch for a quick disturbance / frontal system April 20-21 with briefly unsettled weather.

DAYS 11-15 (APRIL 22-26)

Step 3 is to be cautious on the outlook this far in advance given questionable model guidance and just the time of year in general – volatile spring in the Northeast. Still leaning toward the upper level west to east (zonal flow) pattern but with the tendency for us to be on the cooler side. However, warmer air will reside not far away leaning any temperatures forecast vulnerable this far in advance. Being near the battle zone leaves me more confident we’ll endure a couple periods of unsettled weather.

C-19 Chat Post – 4-12-2022

DAYS 1-5 (APRIL 11-15)

There are a lot of things to sort out for the next several days as we head toward the half way point of April, so let’s get to it! First, a bubble of high pressure brings fair weather to our region today, with lots of sunshine – a nice change after several days of unsettled weather under an upper low. But the fair weather is short-lived. A low pressure area heading eastward, destined to pass to our north, will bring its warm front across the region late this evening with some light rainfall, with low temperatures occurring in the late evening before holding steady or even rising a little overnight in the warm sector. This low’s cold front will quickly swing across the region from west to east with a few additional rain showers until about midday Tuesday, and after its passage we will see a return to sunshine. As can be the case around here, it will be noticeably warmer behind the cold front as we will be experiencing atmospheric conditions that allow a significant warming at the surface – a drying westerly wind and full, high-angle sun, after not having the benefit of either while we are in the warm sector during the pre-dawn and early-morning hours. Tuesday night we do get a delivery of cooler air both from the normal exit of daytime heating from the lower atmosphere as well as advection of cooler air on a northwesterly breeze. Wednesday will turn out cooler than Tuesday, especially along the coast, as we quickly lose the gusty land breeze in favor of a variable to onshore breeze ahead of an approaching warm front from the next low pressure system. Clouds return during Wednesday, with an eventual rain threat as the front nears later in the day and at night. The forecast dilemma I have about this next system is trying to determine whether or not that warm front gets across the entire WHW forecast area. If yes, we break into warm air Thursday for several hours. If no, we’re rather cool, cloudier, and possibly wet. If somewhere in between, well, then we end up with one of those big temperature ranges that New England can be famous for in the springtime, along with a variety of weather ranging from overcast to sunny, depending on where you are. Right now, my leaning is somewhat optimistic, in that we get the front to come through at least most of the region for at least a few hours, so my forecast will reflect this, leaving the possibility open that northeastern MA and southeastern NH don’t get quite that lucky – and then the forecast will likely need adjustment ahead. Friday, we’ll be back into a mild westerly air flow as the larger parent low pressure area goes by to our north, and this looks like it will be accompanied by dry weather, which is great news if you’re a baseball (especially Red Sox) fan – opening day at Fenway Park!

TODAY: Sunny – some high clouds appearing later in the day from the west. Highs 58-65, but turning cooler in some coastal areas by mid-late afternoon. Wind NW 5-15 MPH gusting around 20 MPH this morning, diminishing to under 10 MPH and shifting to SW this afternoon except for local sea breezes developing in coastal areas.

TONIGHT: Clouding up. Light rain at times late evening and overnight. Lows 44-51. Wind S up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy with a chance of rain showers during the morning. Mostly sunny afternoon. Highs 63-70, cooler Cape Cod and a few other coastal areas. Wind SW 5-15 MPH morning, NW 10-20 MPH afternoon.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 41-48. Wind NW 5-15 MPH early, diminishing and becoming variable.

WEDNESDAY: Increasing clouds. Chance of light rain by later in the day. Highs 57-64, coolest coast. Wind variable to SE up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Chance of light rain. Lows 43-50. Wind SE to S up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of light rain favoring northern and eastern areas early in the day. Highs 50-58 southeastern NH and northeastern MA, 58-65 southeastern NH and eastern MA to RI and 65-72 central MA to northeastern CT except cooler along the South Coast. Wind SW 5-15 MPH, may stay E in some southern NH and northeastern MA areas.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy with rain showers likely. Lows 47-54. Wind variable 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Partly to mostly sunny. Highs 63-70, cooler Cape Cod. Wind W 10-20 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (APRIL 16-20)

A lot of uncertainty for the April 16-18 period which for some is Easter weekend and also leads to Patriots Day often known as “Marathon Monday”. There are indications of a significant cool-down and eventual unsettled weather, which may even include some higher elevation snow. Model guidance is variable and inconsistent and is not of much help now. Fine-tuning will be required. Looks fair and quieter toward April 19-20.

DAYS 11-15 (APRIL 21-25)

No big changes in my thought process for this forecast period. Low confidence forecast leans toward an upper level pattern that is mostly a zonal (west to east) flow, but with cooler than average temperatures winning out but still with warmer air not that far away. Battle zone means a couple additional unsettled weather episodes.

C-19 Chat Post – 4-11-2022

DAYS 1-5 (APRIL 10-14)

We remain in an active weather pattern as a result of being near the oft-mentioned battle zone between cold air lingering in Canada and spring warmth to our south. Today, upper level low pressure is still in the process of crossing the Northeast. It was responsible for showers and thunderstorms with hail Saturday, and today will result in lots of clouds developing but this time just a few passing rain showers are possible. Tonight, it moves away and we clear out overnight, and set up for a nice Monday as a small bubble of high pressure moves across our area. A small low pressure area will follow this, tracking just north of our region and bringing a quick warm front / cold front combo across the area with some unsettled weather Monday night and Tuesday morning, before we clear out again with fairly mild air for Tuesday afternoon. And when we get to midweek, we’ll do it again with a slightly larger-sized system bringing its warm front toward our area Wednesday. There’s a bit more of a question as to whether or not this front will be able to push through and that is a key to Thursday’s forecast, which is more uncertain between cooler air and lots of clouds with some light rainfall or warmer air with a sun/cloud mix and a chance of showers. I’m leaning toward scenario #2 but with low confidence.

TODAY: Variably cloudy. Isolated rain showers possible this afternoon. Highs 51-58. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.

TONIGHT: Clearing. Lows 38-45. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 55-62, coolest coast. Wind W 5-15 MPH becoming variable up to 10 MPH with coastal sea breeze possible in the afternoon.

MONDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers. Lows 43-50. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy with a chance of showers early, then partly sunny. Highs 58-65, cooler Cape Cod. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 38-45. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of light rain. Highs 55-60 coast, 60-65 inland. Wind variable to SE 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Chance of light rain. Lows 43-50. Wind S up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Partly sunny. Chance of showers. Highs 58-65, cooler South Coast. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (APRIL 15-19)

Looking for a drier westerly air flow for the first couple days of this period leading into the start of next weekend, then watching for an unsettled period of weather later weekend and early the following week before drier weather returns, but this remains a low confidence forecast. Temperatures start mild then trend cooler.

DAYS 11-15 (APRIL 20-24)

This part of the forecast also continues to be low confidence. Leaning toward an upper level pattern that is mostly west to east, but with cooler than average temperatures winning out but still with warmer air not that far away. Battle zone means a couple additional unsettled weather episodes.

C-19 Chat Post – 4-10-2022

DAYS 1-5 (APRIL 9-13)

The weekend is upon us, and this second weekend of April will feature “OK” weather by the standards of many people, but far from ideal. But we must keep in mind as I often mention, that the spring season in many parts of the US, including our own area, is a time of variability and volatility, the result of those lessening but lingering pushes of cold air from Canada as the winter snow cover retreats battling with the early pushes of warmth and humidity invading areas to our south. We sit in the battle zone often, and will do so in the days ahead. I never bought an often-advertised multi-day warm up to the 70s, and I still do not. But let’s back up a bit and look at this weekend. We have to deal with upper level low pressure which has to traverse the Northeast from west to east, and will do so through Sunday. With the core of this upper low still to the west today, we’ll see a surface low pressure area quickly develop and move right across New England, the center passing just west of the WHW forecast area midday and afternoon. We’ll see 2 rounds of showers and potential thunderstorms as this system passes through – the first later this morning moving generally south to north along a warm front, and another during the afternoon along a cold front that swings through from west to east. The greatest concentration of showers and possible thunderstorms should occur near and north of I-90, and a few of them may contain brief downpours of rain and even some small hail. By later afternoon, it’s gone, and we quiet down for evening. During Sunday, the upper low will be continuing its trek across the region, so after a sunny start, we’ll see lots of clouds developing with a few rain showers possible during the afternoon, before these dissipate with the setting sun. During the first half of next week, we’ll sit near a frontal boundary once again, so the previously-advertised sunny warm stretch you may have caught via some media (not here) will not really be how things play out. As previously stated, when we are in this pattern, we have to watch for disturbances running along the boundary, and we have to watch for the impact the colder ocean water has on our region, especially coastal areas. Monday, a small bubble of high pressure passing just to the south of us, with our region on the northern side of it, means a general westerly air flow and fair/mild weather, but the wind field should be weak enough that a few coastal areas may flip to a sea breeze during the day. Monday night, a disturbance from the west comes along with more clouds and the chance of a little bit of light rainfall. This exits Tuesday leaving us with partial clearing and while it warms up inland we’ll need to watch for onshore breezes at the coast where it can be considerably cooler. While other forecasts advertise fair and warm weather for Wednesday, I’m not nearly convinced of this, as we may see yet another disturbance bring clouds, potential showers, and again a cooler coastline while it’s mild inland. There’s still enough uncertainty heading toward midweek that some adjustment to that part of the forecast may be needed.

TODAY: Mostly cloudy with scattered showers passing by south to north mid morning to midday. Variably cloudy remainder of day with additional rain showers and possible thunderstorms passing through from west to east, a few of which may contain small hail, coming to an end by late in the day. Highs 56-63, coolest coast. Wind SE-S 5-15 MPH during the morning, shifting to SW-W during the afternoon, with a few higher gusts possible.

TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 38-45. Wind W 5-15 MPH, shifting to NW.

SUNDAY: Mostly sunny start, then variably cloudy. Scattered showers afternoon. Highs 51-58. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 38-45. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 55-62, coolest coast. Wind W 5-15 MPH becoming variable up to 10 MPH with coastal sea breeze possible in the afternoon.

MONDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers. Lows 43-50. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy early, then partly sunny. Highs 54-61, coolest coast. Wind variable up to 10 MPH with coastal sea breezes.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 38-45. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of light rain. Highs 55-60 coast, 60-65 inland. Wind variable to SE 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (APRIL 14-18)

A stronger low pressure area may track west and north of our region April 14-15 with a varying amount of cloudiness and eventually a shower potential. The trend is for a cooler westerly air flow for the April 16-17 weekend, but this part of the forecast is lower confidence, as is the end of the period when we may have to watch for a coastal disturbance with the threat of rainfall and even the potential for some inland mix/snow as colder air may be around at that time.

DAYS 11-15 (APRIL 19-23)

This part of the forecast also continues to be low confidence. Leaning toward the zonal (west to east) flow pattern with variable temperatures and a couple unsettled weather threats difficult to focus and time so far in advance.

C-19 Chat Post – 4-9-2022

DAYS 1-5 (APRIL 8-12)

Low pressure moving across the region early this morning has produce showers and in some cases thunderstorms, which were quite potent on the MA South Coast up to the South Shore. While the heaviest activity has now moved offshore and is racing away into the Gulf of Maine (as of the time of this writing) we’ll still have some lingering shower activity around with patches of fog as well until the low pressure area gets north of our latitude. At that time, a drying westerly air flow will replace the damp easterly one. Improvement comes by midday, and the afternoon will be quite nice overall, including being rather mild in comparison to the last couple days. All we have to watch for is a pop up shower that is possible, especially over interior locations, later in the afternoon through the early evening hours. Our weekend will be so-so, but far from what we have just gone through. Upper level low pressure has to cross the region from west to east. Saturday, while we are still on the eastern side of this low, we’re quite vulnerable to showery weather especially as another surface low forms and scoots through the region. The timing for showers looks highest in the morning and midday hours, and we should see some improvement after. Sunday, the shower threat is still there, but lower, and focused on afternoon, with the cold pool of air associated with the upper low still over us. I’ve doubted previous medium range forecasts for a flip to just fair and warm weather by early next week, and this doubt remains in force. Yes, it looks better both Monday & Tuesday with small areas of high pressure in control, but between them a disturbance, likely the first in a series, will move through with some unsettled weather Monday night. This timing is obviously not set in stone – but looks this way at this time.

TODAY: Cloudy morning with areas of fog, scattered showers, and isolated thunderstorms. Sun/cloud mix afternoon with a slight chance of a shower. Highs 58-65, coolest South Coast. Wind E to variable 5-15 MPH early becoming W 5-15 MPH with higher gusts.

TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 38-45. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY: Mostly cloudy with scattered to numerous showers morning-midday, then partly cloudy. Highs 56-63. Wind SW 5-15 MPH shifting to W.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 38-45. Wind W 5-15 MPH, shifting to NW.

SUNDAY: Partly sunny. Isolated showers mainly afternoon. Highs 51-58. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 38-45. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 55-62. Wind variable up to 10 MPH, coastal sea breezes possible.

MONDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers. Lows 43-50. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 54-61. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (APRIL 13-17)

We’ll be near a boundary zone between chilly Canadian air and warmer air in much of the US Mid Atlantic and Southeast. Where have we heard this before? It’s going to be difficult to pin down details, but right now I’d put the odds at fair weather highest at both ends of this forecast period and odds of unsettled weather highest in the middle, however the entire period may be vulnerable to unsettled weather and certainly some temperature variability. There will be a lot of fine-tuning to do with this forecast.

DAYS 11-15 (APRIL 18-22)

Very low confidence forecast. Expecting an overall zonal flow pattern with a couple minor disturbances bringing brief rainfall threats in a regime of mostly dry weather and seasonable though slightly variable temperatures.

C-19 Chat Post – 4-8-2022

DAYS 1-5 (APRIL 7-11)

We’ve a case of the Aprils – the real Aprils, not the false Aprils. Often, this month is depicted as being a month full of sunshine, warmth, and emerging flowers. While we can have plenty of days with warm sunshine, and yes we are seeing our first flowers emerge and will see many more to follow, the reality is and has always been that our weather in April is variable, often cool, and frequently unsettled. We have a case of the latter – the real Aprils – right now, as we sit in a stretch of unsettled and fairly cool (but not overly cold) weather. It can be a lot worse, like on this day in 1982 when, the day after a major snowstorm, the temperature sat in the teens to lower 20s with wind chill dipping to the single digits – all day long – while we dug out from 10 to 16 inches of snowfall. What’s going on now is far more typical. Yesterday, one storm system scooted by to our south, bringing a period of rain, and just as that one has moved out, we are already under the cloud canopy of the next system, although breaks are allowing areas of sun early today. This next system consists of a large, mature low pressure area spinning in the Great Lakes, underneath its upper level low pressure partner. An occluded front arcs out from that low and approaches us from the west today. Where its triple-point is, we’ll see a new surface low pressure area develop today, and it is that low that will move north northeastward, right across our region, tonight and early Friday, with another round of rain and even some thunderstorms. Preceding that will just be a few showers that may wander into the area this afternoon. Once the new surface low passes our area early Friday, we’ll see improvement, some clearing, and milder air, but there still can be a few pop-up showers due to cooling air aloft during the afternoon on Friday. The weekend will be when that old surface low and upper level low pressure area have to drift eastward across our region, and this means a cooling trend with additional rain shower threats. The greatest threat for the rain showers will be Saturday as that is when we will see our most unstable air. So not a terrible weekend, but definitely at least partially unsettled, especially the first half. Once we get to Monday, high pressure is in control and it’s fair and slightly milder again.

TODAY: Broken clouds allowing partial sunshine at times this morning. Generally cloudy with isolated to scattered rain showers this afternoon. Highs 47-54. Wind SE 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Overcast. Scattered to numerous rain showers in the evening. Widespread rain showers and possible thunderstorms overnight. Fog areas. Temperatures steady 47-54. Wind SE 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

FRIDAY: Cloudy with additional rain showers around during the morning. Partly sunny with a slight chance of a passing rain shower in the afternoon. Highs 57-64. Wind variable up to 10 MPH early becoming W 5-15 MPH with higher gusts.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 38-45. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY: Variably cloudy. Scattered rain showers mainly midday-afternoon. Highs 56-63. Wind W 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 40-47. Wind W 5-15 MPH, gusty.

SUNDAY: Partly sunny. Isolated rain showers mainly afternoon. Highs 51-58. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, gusty.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 38-45. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 55-62. Wind variable up to 10 MPH, coastal sea breezes possible.

DAYS 6-10 (APRIL 12-16)

I still don’t completely trust “the warm up” with fair weather all the way. Chances there for a disturbance and some cloudiness and even some rainfall threat during a transition or attempt for warmer air to move in early in the period. I think we do warm up for a day or two (target April 13-14), but by April 15 already see a rain shower threat with a frontal system moving through, leading to a drier but cooler end to the period. Still not a very high confidence forecast.

DAYS 11-15 (APRIL 17-21)

Low confidence forecast of a zonal flow pattern and a couple minor disturbances bringing brief rainfall threats in a regime of mostly dry weather and seasonable though slightly variable temperatures.

C-19 Chat Post – 4-7-2022

DAYS 1-5 (APRIL 6-10)

Quite a number of days ago we talked about watching the April 6-8 period for unsettled weather. Well, here it is. We’ll be impacted by several low pressure areas over the next few days, with lingering impacts even into the weekend. This is how it breaks down. Today, the first low pressure area will be moving eastward and taking a track just to the south of New England. We’ll be on the northern side of its envelope of rain, which will have its greatest impact on the WHW forecast area from mid morning to midday, heaviest to the south of I-90, then taper to just drizzle and patchy light rain later in the day. A region-wide easterly air flow off the Atlantic combined with the overcast ensures us of a very chilly and raw feeling day as well. Between this first system, which departs overnight tonight, and the next one which approaches Thursday, enough dry air may work in to cause breaks in the clouds, but we won’t get all that much benefit from that in terms of sun, except for the possibility of seeing a little bit early Thursday, as much of the cloud-breaking time will occur before sunrise. Wet weather comes back in from west to east later Thursday, but we may get through much of the day rain-free. It will still be cool Thursday, but up a few degrees over today. The storm system bringing us this round of wet weather will be more complex than its predecessor, starting out as low pressure in mature to decaying stage entering the Great Lakes, then redeveloping over the northern Middle Atlantic region. It is this redevelopment that will move right up across our region Thursday night and early Friday, bringing us our heaviest rainfall, which will be more in the form of showers with even the chance of some thunder. This system will start to move away during Friday, with partial improvement and milder air moving in, but upper level low pressure still over the Northeast means that we keep a rain shower chance in place during Friday, and even into the weekend, especially Saturday, as it will take a few days for the upper trough to traverse the entire region. We’ll see that rain shower chance drop off Sunday, not to zero, but less than Saturday. The trade-off will be that we’ll also undergo a cooling trend…

TODAY: Overcast. Rain eastern CT, RI, southern MA, expanding northward for several hours, then tapering to drizzle and periods of light rain west to east midday on. Highs 45-52. Wind E 5-15 MPH, 10-20 MPH coast, higher gusts.

TONIGHT: Clouds break. Fog patches linger. Lows 37-44. Wind E 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY: Broken clouds may allow a glimpse of sun around sunrise, then thickening overcast. Rain returns by late-day west to east. Highs 46-53. Wind E-SE 5-15 MPH, higher gusts in coastal areas.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Overcast. Numerous rain showers. Chance of thunderstorms. Areas of fog. Temperatures steady 46-53. Wind SE 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

FRIDAY: Cloudy with additional rain showers around during the morning. Partly sunny with a slight chance of a passing rain shower in the afternoon. Highs 57-64. Wind variable up to 10 MPH early becoming W 10-20 MPH and gusty.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 38-45. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY: Variably cloudy. Scattered rain showers mainly midday-afternoon. Highs 56-63. Wind W 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 40-47. Wind W 5-15 MPH, gusty.

SUNDAY: Partly sunny. Isolated rain showers mainly afternoon. Highs 51-58. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, gusty.

DAYS 6-10 (APRIL 11-15)

The upper level pattern says dry spell and above normal temperatures, but I’m often a little skeptical about how easily we can pull off a stretch for 5 days in April without “something” going wrong, and I am skeptical this time. We need to watch a boundary to the north and high pressure in eastern Canada, often underplayed by medium range guidance, in case we end up with a back-door front or a boundary nearby that becomes a running-board for a disturbance or two. It may not be all sunshine, warmth, and emerging flowers next week, but the pattern does look better than this week at least.

DAYS 11-15 (APRIL 16-20)

The pattern wants to try to stay dry and on the milder side to start, but we may be contending with a large cool pool from Canada by mid to late period. This part of the forecast is very low confidence, however, and is only a step above saying “I have no idea what’s going to happen yet…”