DAYS 1-5 (JANUARY 28 – FEBRUARY 1)

Temperatures went up overnight – what a balmy morning! Well, in comparison to recent temperatures it feels rather mild. This is a brief interlude of milder air though today, ahead of a cold front that will bring us back to the colder side of things just in time for the arrival of our Saturday storm. But before that, we may see a few snow showers with the slow passage of the cold front today. Our Saturday storm has not even formed yet, and will do so this evening when a couple pieces of energy arrive from different places and start a storm party. Low pressure forms then moves north northeast and rapidly intensifies, passing somewhere in the vicinity of the 40/70 benchmark, could be a little bit either side, and could do a little wiggle in its track as it responds to changes in the upper level steering winds. These little details will help shape the specific development, orientation, and behavior of the snowfall area and any heavier banding and lighter snowfalls that can and often do develop in between heavier bands. Basic timing for onset of snow is from south to north during the overnight / pre-dawn hours of Saturday, then a storm that peaks during the day and evening, and leaves us late evening Saturday to very early Sunday morning. Two high tide cycles need to be watched for minor to moderate coastal flooding, the morning and the evening high tides on Saturday, with north-facing coastal areas the most vulnerable due to a northeast to north wind. The low’s track and behavior will determine whether or not a mix of rain gets involved over Nantucket and the outer portion of Cape Cod for part of the storm. I don’t think much rain will get in there, but the snow there will likely be a little wetter / stickier consistency due to that milder atmosphere, compared to the powder type of snow we see across the remainder of the region. The fluff factor may not be as great in this storm as it was in our recent significant snowfall, as the flakes may be much smaller in size. This can have an impact on overall accumulation too – a factor I have considered. Will blizzard conditions occur? Blizzard conditions occur when you have a period of 3 or more hours of sustained wind or frequent wind gusts over 35 MPH, combined with considerable falling and/or blowing snow (doesn’t have to be falling snow, but will be here), reducing visibility to under 1/4 mile. This is definitely possible especially closer to the coast where the wind is likely to meet that criteria versus points further inland. But still, inland areas can expect plenty of blowing snow, and drifting of the fallen snow, regardless of whether or not they reach “official” blizzard status. There used to be a temperature criteria for a blizzard (below 20F, below 10F for a “severe blizzard”) but these were dropped by NWS. Ironically, much of the region may meet the old temperature critera anyway. Power outages are always possible in a storm like this, but I think the drier nature of the snow and the leafless trees will be a mitigating factor. Once this storm exits, we’ll be left with a cold but dry day on Sunday, breezy but not too bad, so that post-storm cleanup can proceed without hindrance. The cold and dry weather will continue through Monday, the final day of January, before we see a moderation to greet February on Tuesday.

TODAY: Cloudy. Chance of snow showers. Highs 30-37. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Overcast. Snow arriving overnight south to north. Lows 15-22. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY: Overcast. Snow, varying intensities, may fall very heavily under banding features with significant rates of accumulation. Blowing and drifting snow. Blizzard conditions possible, especially near the coast. Highs 17-24 except 24-31 Cape Cod / Islands. South Shore to Cape Cod. Wind NE to N 15-30 MPH with gusts 35-50 MPH inland and 25-40 MPH with gusts 50-70 MPH coast with isolated gusts 75-80 MPH possible.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Cloudy with snow tapering off. Total snow accumulation 10-18 inches with bands of above 18-24 inches and isolated greater than 24 inch amounts possible, but not definite. Blowing and drifting snow. Lows 12-19. Wind N to NW 15-30 MPH, higher gusts with strongest in the evening, diminishing a little overnight.

SUNDAY: Early clouds, then sunny. Highs 22-29. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, a few higher gusts. Areas of blowing snow at times.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 2-9. Wind NW diminishing to under 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Sunny. Highs 23-30. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 15-22 evening, rising overnight. Wind S up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 30-37. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (FEBRUARY 2-6)

Milder with rain chances at times early-mid period . Colder later in the period, may end it with a snow chance.

DAYS 11-15 (FEBRUARY 7-11)

Starting out chilly, then milder again. Additional unsettled weather threats.

C-19 Chat Post – January 28 2022

DAYS 1-5 (JANUARY 27-31)

Low temperatures at dawn range from just below zero to the lower 20s, coldest spots being in north central MA and southwestern NH, warmest being over Cape Cod. This is typical for a mid winter morning in SNE. We’ll enjoy a sunny day today but it will be pretty cold, however with light wind. Clouds will move in tonight ahead of a weak cold front approaching from the west, and this boundary will be in the region on Friday with a mostly cloudy sky and the chance of a few snow showers, but nothing impactful. As this is going on we’ll start to see a storm system take shape off the US Southeast Coast. We’ve seen (and continue to see) many of the same typical model antics leading up to this thing over the last few days, but sorting through all of that I’ve come up the following. The storm’s track will be offshore, but exactly how far offshore is still a little bit of a mystery. However, I feel it will be close enough to give the entire WHW forecast area a significant snowfall starting late Friday night / early Saturday morning, and tapering off during Saturday night. The storm will also produce a lot of wind and cause coastal flooding especially around the times of high tide Saturday morning and evening as tides will also be astronomically high. Sunday will feature dry weather with sunshine and chilly air, but a good day for post-storm cleanup, and on the current track I expect a generally lower water content snowfall for most of the region which helps with cleanup as you don’t have waterlogged snow to deal with. Fair and chilly weather will continue Monday as high pressure controls to close January.

TODAY: Sunny. Highs 22-29. Wind N up to 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Increasing clouds. Temperatures steady 22-29 evening, rising slightly overnight. Wind S up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Cloudy. Chance of snow showers. Highs 30-37. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Overcast. Snow arriving overnight. Lows 15-22. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY: Overcast. Snow. Blowing and drifting snow. Significant snow accumulation expected. Highs 18-25 except 25-32 South Shore to Cape Cod. Wind NE 15-30 MPH, higher gusts.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Cloudy with snow tapering off. Total snow accumulation 8-15 inches with a couple bands or areas above 15 inches favoring areas east of I-95. Blowing and drifting snow likely. Lows 15-22. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.

SUNDAY: Sunny. Highs 25-32. Wind NW 10-20 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 2-9. Wind NW under 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Sunny. Highs 25-32. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (FEBRUARY 1-5)

Milder weather the first few days of February along with a chance of a couple rounds of rain shower activity especially around February 4. Turning colder at the end of the period.

DAYS 11-15 (FEBRUARY 6-10)

Overall milder pattern, but may start out on the cold side first with a snow/rain threat as we transition back to milder again.

C-19 Chat Post – January 27 2022

DAYS 1-5 (JANUARY 26-30)

The cold is back! After a one-day break we’re back to the chill from Canada, and this time it will hang around for several days. We’ll at least enjoy dry weather with the cold for the next couple of days, but keep an eye out early today for icy patches on untreated surfaces in any areas where melt-water yesterday was not able to dry up before the temperature dropped last night. Friday, we see the clouds back along with the chance of some snow shower activity as another cold front moves into the area. While this is going on, a storm will be developing off the US Southeast Coast, destined to make a rapid run north northeastward just off the East Coast while rapidly intensifying, with cold air in place here. Yes, a pretty classic set-up for a significant snow (or mostly snow) event for us along with lots of wind. We won’t have a blocking set-up this time. Any wobble or wiggle in the storm’s path would be caused by its own upper level set-up. We’ll also be looking at coastal impacts because of combined wind and astronomical high tides as we head for a new moon (which occurs early next week on February 1). What’s left to figure out is the exact track of the low and the orientation of the precipitation shield (banding, dry slots, etc.) as to helping us figure out snowfall accumulation by numbers. I know that some maps are already out there, but I’ll probably make my first broad accumulation estimate in the comments section later today, and it will definitely be on tomorrow’s blog. I will see that a scenario of double-digit snowfall for a good part of the WHW forecast area is definitely on the table for a system that arrives Friday night and continues through Saturday. By Sunday, we’ll see improved weather and it will be a good day for post-storm cleanup as high pressure moves in.

TODAY: Sunny. Highs 20-27. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

TONIGHT: Clear. Lows -2 to +3 interior low elevations, 4-9 most locations, 10-15 Cape Cod. Wind NW diminishing to under 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Sunny. Highs 23-30. Wind N up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Increasing clouds. Lows 12-19. Wind W under 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Cloudy. Chance of snow showers. Highs 28-35. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Overcast. Snow arriving overnight. Lows 15-22. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY: Overcast. Snow. Blowing and drifting snow. Significant snow accumulation expected. Slight chance of a snow/rain mix Cape Cod. Highs 18-25 except 25-32 South Shore to Cape Cod. Wind NE 15-30 MPH, higher gusts.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Cloudy with snow tapering off evening. Clearing overnight. Blowing and drifting snow likely. Lows 15-22. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.

SUNDAY: Sunny. Highs 25-32. Wind NW 10-20 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JANUARY 31 – FEBRUARY 4)

A dry and seasonably cold end to January. February likely starts with a temperature moderation and a couple periods of unsettled weather.

DAYS 11-15 (FEBRUARY 5-9)

Overall milder pattern but variable temperatures expected. Being near the border of mild to the south and cold to the north means episodes of unsettled weather are more possible.

C-19 Chat Post – January 26 2022

DAYS 1-5 (JANUARY 25-29)

The last bits of light snow are exciting Cape Ann and a mix of snow/rain are departing via Cape Cod as we have now seen a warm front pass by. A general coating to 1 inch of snow fell during the night ahead of the front. Today we get a relatively mild day before a cold front comes through later and returns the cold of mid winter to our region for the rest of this week. High pressure will bring fair weather for midweek, but later in the week things start to change. A disturbances approaches Friday with an increase in clouds and perhaps a few snow showers, and as this happens low pressure will be taking place off the US Southeast Coast. This system will have pretty deep roots to the south including Gulf of Mexico and Atlantic moisture, and all signs point to a rapidly moving and intensifying low pressure system making a run up along and likely off the US East Coast. This would likely bring a significant snow/wind event to our region Friday night into Saturday, the amount of both determined by the exact storm track.

TODAY: Cloudy start, then increasing sun. Highs 35-42. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Partly cloudy evening. Clearing overnight. Lows 13-20. Wind shifting to NW 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 20-27. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 0-8 except 8-15 Cape Cod. Wind NW 5-15 MPH. Wind chill below 0.

THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 24-31. Wind N up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 12-19. Wind N under 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of snow showers. Highs 23-30. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Overcast with snow likely. Lows 15-22. Wind NE to N 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.

SATURDAY: Overcast with snow likely morning, tapering off during the afternoon. Highs 22-29. Wind NE to N 15-25 MPH, higher gusts.

DAYS 6-10 (JANUARY 30 – FEBRUARY 3)

Fair, cold end to January. Unsettled weather to start February then fair and colder at the end of the period.

DAYS 11-15 (FEBRUARY 4-8)

Milder trend, additional unsettled weather at times.

C-19 Chat Post – January 25 2022

DAYS 1-5 (JANUARY 24-28)

A bubble of high pressure will bring fair and cold weather to our area today. A small low pressure area cutting north of the region brings a warm front toward us tonight and through the area early Tuesday with some light snow except mix/rain South Coast, followed by a brief interlude of milder air during the day Tuesday. After that, the low’s cold front will swing through and return cold but dry weather to us for Wednesday and Thursday ahead of the next disturbance which returns clouds and the chance of some snow showers by Friday…

TODAY: Sun and patchy clouds. Highs 26-33. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Clouds increase. Periods of light snow late evening and overnight with accumulations of generally under 1 inch but up to 1 inch possible, Lows 18-25 evening, rising slightly overnight. Wind S to SW up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy morning with lingering snow showers except mix/rain showers South Coast. Partly sunny afternoon. Highs 35-42. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy evening. Clearing overnight. Lows 13-20. Wind shifting to NW 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 20-27. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 0-8 except 8-15 Cape Cod. Wind NW 5-15 MPH. Wind chill below 0.

THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 24-31. Wind N up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 12-19. Wind N under 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of snow showers. Highs 23-30. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JANUARY 29 – FEBRUARY 2)

Watching the January 29-30 weekend for a potential winter storm threat. Model guidance remains variable and inconsistent, as is usually the case. However the pattern supports at least something nearby, if not directly impacting the region, favoring the first half of the weekend, followed by a shot of windy/cold weather. Cold end to January then perhaps a slight moderation and a little unsettled weather to start off February.

DAYS 11-15 (FEBRUARY 3-7)

Transition to a milder pattern gets underway but may involve some additional unsettled weather between milder air trying to move up from the south and still cold air to the north.

C-19 Chat Post – January 24 2022

DAYS 1-5 (JANUARY 23-27)

While high pressure tries to control the weather here in New England it will have issues keeping a couple of small intruders out – those intruders being a couple of rather weak disturbances coming along via the Great Lakes. The first one will bring cloudiness today and perhaps some snow showers this evening. After a sunnier interlude during the day Monday, the next one will approach Monday night into Tuesday, with a shield of snow ahead of its warm front bringing a small accumulation to at least parts of the region. While we get briefly into the warm sector as this low travels just north of here, Tuesday ends up as our mildest day of this forecast period, because the cold front will then swing quickly through with colder air returning Tuesday night, and a second front will whistle across the region early Wednesday bringing in another shot of much colder air, a gusty wind making that feel even sharper. High pressure brings fair weather Thursday with a slightly temperature moderation but still sub-normal.

TODAY: Lots of clouds, partial sun possible. Highs 31-38. Wind SW 10-20 MPH.

TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Chance of snow showers. Lows 21-28. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

MONDAY: Patchy clouds, more sun likely. Highs 25-32. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Clouds return. A coating to 1 inch of snow possible overnight. Lows 18-25. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy to partly sunny. Chance of snow early morning. Highs 35-42. Wind SW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Lows 22-30. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Partly cloudy. Chance of a snow shower. Highs 30-37 morning, falling into the 20s afternoon. Wind W to NW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 0-8 except 8-15 Cape Cod. Wind NW 5-15 MPH. Wind chill below 0.

THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 27-34. Wind N up to 10 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JANUARY 28 – FEBRUARY 1)

Temperatures are expected to remain generally below normal for this period. We remain vulnerable to potential storm systems as well with the first one to watch between later January 28 and January 29. Guidance, as expected, has been inconsistent with this and offers no help in trying to make many early guesses on the impact from this system, so that will happen later.

DAYS 11-15 (FEBRUARY 2-6)

Pattern change starts to take place with a milder trend trying to develop as we see more upper level high pressure becoming established over the southeastern US, but with a lot of cold air in Canada this still leaves our region vulnerable to unsettled weather with temperature fluctuations.

C-19 Chat Post – January 23 2022

DAYS 1-5 (JANUARY 22-26)

The ocean-effect snow machine tends to work in relatively short bursts in our area, as it’s not too often we have the conditions perfect to have it persist for all that long, but this time is a little different. Since early Friday, this has been going on, starting over Cape Cod and the MA South Shore, with a brief tapering break, then a return to activity that then shifted more to the north to include Boston and Cape Ann as well, and heading southwestward into southern portions of central MA at times as well. I’ve even seen occasional flakes here in Woburn which is about 10 to 12 miles northwest of Boston, being right on the edge of the northernmost band at times. Snowfall accumulations with events like this are often very difficult to get exactly right, due to the sometimes narrow heavier bands that can shift back and forth, or remain in place, depending on the exact location of little convergence zones and overall wind direction at any given time. These snowfalls often present in very high snow to water ratios, as previously mentioned by a fellow meteorologist on the blog yesterday (20:1 ratios can be very common and even sometimes they can go much higher than that). It doesn’t take much moisture to pile up a few inches of pure feather fluff snow. This is very easy to clean, but it can make the roads slippery if there is partial melting and refreezing due to previous road treatment but also very cold air in place, or a quick covering of snow is then packed down by vehicular traffic. Some may wonder why an onshore wind off an ocean that is quite mild (40+ degrees) would create such fluffy snow. Well the quick answer is that the air heading from eastern Canada and Maine into and across those waters was very cold, in some cases below zero, so yes, it does modify, but maybe only to the teens and 20s by the time it’s crossed the water enroute to the shore, picking up enough moisture to deposit the fluff in the still very cold air, even after it’s been modified. I mentioned that this set up is less common to see here because our “average” weather does not create this set up of northeast winds for very long periods of time to create the ocean effect snow, in contrast to a place like Buffalo, where they average colder than we do anyway and also tend to see more persistent winds from the west, giving them more opportunity for lake effect events. Of course if you take the entire Great Lakes into account, you’re talking about a huge sample size compared to our very small area of coast, so it pretty much becomes an irrelevant comparison at that point – but you get the idea by keeping it in the proper perspective. 🙂 So how about the rest of the weather for this weekend and early next week? Well, we are being missed by a storm to the south today, as became clear would likely happen during the past few days. And we’ll have more cold but generally dry weather for Sunday and Monday as weak high pressure dominates our weather, although some upper level energy passing through will bring some varying amounts of cloudiness during Sunday before we end up with more sun Monday. When we get to Tuesday and Wednesday, it gets a little more complex. We’re going to be in a set-up that guidance can mess up royally even just a couple days out. Tuesday a wave of low pressure passes to our north, a warm front passing by in the morning with no more than clouds and maybe some spotty snowfall. We “warm up” in a relative sense that day, pushing 40 or so, and then a cold front swings by later. It would likely be mild enough for a rain shower with this but I’m not even sure there will be enough moisture to produce anything, and then we chill-down behind that front Tuesday night into Wednesday. There is going to be more energy back to our southwest so we have to watch for a wave of low pressure to form, just in case it’s a little more of something than guidance currently indicates. If this is the case, Wednesday could end up messy with overrunning precipitation, probably of the frozen variety, or it could all end up happening too far to the south and we stay mainly dry and chilly. This will be the puzzle I’ll be trying to solve over the next few days. For now, for forecast purposes, I’ll lean dry but add the chance of some snow/mix for southern areas.

TODAY: Lots of clouds northeastern through south central MA southward with occasional snow showers, but more persistent snow shower bands especially near and south of Boston where up to a few additional inches of snow are possible. More sun to the northwest. Highs 17-24, but 25-30 Cape Cod / Islands. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Clearing. Lows 8-15. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 25-32 Wind W up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 10-17 Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 27-34. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Clouds increase. Lows 20-27. Wind SE up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Spotty light snow early. Maybe a rain shower late. Highs 35-42. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Lows 22-30. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of mix/snow southern areas. Highs 31-38. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JANUARY 27-31)

The overall pattern remains colder than normal. Watching for two potential low pressure impacts around January 28-29 and again about January 30-31. Too soon for any speculation on details.

DAYS 11-15 (FEBRUARY 1-5)

The beginning of a pattern change. Trending milder, some unsettled weather during the transition.

C-19 Chat Post – January 22 2022

DAYS 1-5 (JANUARY 21-25)

Cold and mainly dry weather will be the story for the next few days. Ocean-effect snow showers will be one exception from the MA South Shore to Cape Cod today, where some minor snowfall accumulations will occur, and a few more of these may occur tonight into Saturday as well as a storm passes to the south of our area, keeping the wind’s trajectory just onshore enough. High pressure will be the main player in our weather through through Monday, supplying the cold air. High pressure shifts offshore Tuesday with moderating temperatures, and a frontal boundary approaches from the west with a chance of some precipitation – and by then it may be mild enough to talk about rain showers.

TODAY: Clouds and snow showers MA South Shore through Cape Cod with a coating to as much of 3 inches of accumulation, except a band of greater than 3 inches likely over a narrow area. More sunshine elsewhere. Highs 18-25. Wind NE to N 5-15 MPH, a few higher gusts.

TONIGHT: Variably cloudy. Possible snow showers Cape Cod and MA South Shore. Lows 0-8 north and west of Boston, 8-15 Boston through Cape Cod. Wind N to NE up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of snow showers MA South Shore and Cape Cod early. Highs 23-30. Wind NE 5-15 MPH early, shifting to NW.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Lows 12-19. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 28-35. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 15-22 Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 28-35. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 17-24. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY: Increasing clouds. Chance of mix/rain showers. Highs 35-42. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JANUARY 26-30)

The overall pattern remains colder than normal. We’ll have to watch low pressure to the south for potential impact early and again later in the period.

DAYS 11-15 (JANUARY 31 – FEBRUARY 4)

Temperatures near to below normal and a couple additional opportunities for wintry weather.