C-19 Chat Post – January 13 2022

DAYS 1-5 (JANUARY 11-15)

We’ve made it through the brief but sharp shot of arctic air, and today the temperature will indicate our recovery as it rises above freezing in most of our region, but you’ll need a little patience as it’ll take some time. While it’s already in the 20s to around 30 over Cape Cod with even a few spotty flurries in the area as milder air starts to move in, it’s in the 10s for most of us, but as an uneventful warm front goes by and a south to southwest breeze takes over, we’ll see that temperature rise take place, even with some increase in cloud cover at times. That milder feel to the air will last through Thursday as well, but we’ll still have to deal with a fair amount of cloudiness at times as there will be more moisture in the middle atmosphere. A weak disturbance and a frontal boundary coming along from the northwest may create a touch of light snow Thursday evening, but this will be a minor event at best. During this time an ocean storm will be strengthening south and southeast of New England, and is expected to be mainly a miss, but be close enough to throw its precipitation shield across far southeastern New England with some rain for Cape Cod and the Islands and a bit of rain/snow for the South Shore and possibly down to eastern RI. This would take place mostly during the first half of the day on Friday. Later Friday, as that storm moves away, it will help pull down another shot of arctic air from eastern Canada which will be with us Friday night and Saturday. When we get to Sunday, it will moderate slightly but still expecting a cold day. We’ll be keeping an eye on another storm system to our southwest as it approaches with clouds moving back in during Sunday. More about this system in the next section after the 5-day forecast.

TODAY: Variably cloudy. Highs 32-39. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Lows 25-32. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY: Variably cloudy. Highs 35-42. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Chance of a few snow flurries. Lows 20-27. Wind NW to N 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Cloudy through midday with a period of rain Cape Cod / Islands that may end as mix, and a chance of a period of rain and/or snow from the MA South Shore to eastern RI. Breaking clouds later. Highs 35-42 by midday. Temperatures falling later in the day. Wind NE to N 10-20 MPH, higher gusts, especially in coastal areas.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Chance of a snow shower anywhere but snow showers likely Cape Cod / Islands. Lows 5-10 except 10-15 South Coast. Wind N 10-20 MPH. Wind chill below 0.

SATURDAY: Mostly sunny except partly cloudy with possible snow showers outer Cape Cod. Highs 16-23. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts. Wind chill near 0.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 3-8 except 9-14 South Coast. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY: Increasing clouds. Highs 23-30. Wind N under 10 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JANUARY 17-21)

Watching a storm for MLK Jr Day January 17. Guidance has trended west with the track of this system during the last several runs but the track of the storm is still highly in question, so best wording is rain/mix/snow likely with gusty wind. Dry, colder January 18-19. A weaker system may bring a precipitation threat later in the period.

DAYS 11-15 (JANUARY 22-26)

We remain in a pattern where we are vulnerable to storminess with near to below normal temperatures into late January.

C-19 Chat Post – January 12 2022

DAYS 1-5 (JANUARY 10-14)

Some areas received a coating of snow in the pre-dawn hours from snow showers and snow squalls as an arctic cold front made its way southward across the region. Some of these snow showers continue over southeastern MA at dawn but will be moving out soon, although a few additional snow showers may occur near the outer portion of Cape Cod today due to the arctic air flowing over the relatively warm ocean water nearby. We have one more very cold night on tap tonight before high pressure shifts offshore Wednesday and a warm front moves through with an increase in cloud cover but also a warm-up, with the temperature going above freezing for most as a milder southwesterly air flow takes over. A couple disturbances will pass by the region, one to the north Wednesday night and another probably to the south of us Thursday night as that frontal boundary slips back through as a cold front, but other than a brief episode of light snow with either of these, not really expecting much to happen. The energy will help ignite an ocean storm south of New England Thursday into Friday, the bulk of which will pass offshore, but it may be close enough to throw a period of snow/mix into the Cape Cod area for a while on Friday. We’ll need to keep an eye on this system just in case it ends up further northwest than currently expected. Either way, its movement into the Canadian Maritimes will help drawn down another brief shot of arctic air for the start of the weekend.

TODAY: Early morning clouds and a few snow showers southeastern MA and eastern RI, and occasional clouds and snow showers outer Cape Cod through at least midday, otherwise sunny. Highs 7-14. Wind WNW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts. Wind chill below 0, as low as -15 at times.

TONIGHT: Clear. Lows -1 to +6. Wind W 5-15 MPH, diminishing. Wind chill -5 to -15 evening.

WEDNESDAY: Increasing clouds. Highs 32-39. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Snow flurries possible. Lows 25-32. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY: Variably cloudy. Highs 35-42. Wind SW up to 10 MPH shifting to NW.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Chance of a few snow flurries. Lows 20-27. Wind NW to N 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Partly sunny. Chance of snow showers southeastern MA and chance of snow/mix Cape Cod / Islands. Highs 28-35.Wind NE 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Chance of a snow shower. Lows 8-15. Wind N 10-20 MPH. Wind chill below 0.

SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 17-24. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts. Wind chill near 0.

DAYS 6-10 (JANUARY 16-20)

Watching two potential storm systems to impact the region with wintry precipitation during this period, focusing on January 16 and January 18. Low confidence forecast due to uncertain guidance, but the pattern supports this. Temperatures below normal.

DAYS 11-15 (JANUARY 21-25)

Similar pattern – watching for a couple potential precipitation threats. Temperatures near to below normal. No details possible this far in advance.

C-19 Chat Post – January 11 2022

DAYS 1-5 (JANUARY 10-14)

One cold front has passed by and introduced windy and colder weather to our region, and that will be the theme of today with generally dry weather. However, another cold front is on the way, an arctic one, and this one passes through the region later today through early tonight. While this front may trigger snow showers and squalls for some of us, it will bring in a blast of bitterly cold air for all of us on Tuesday. This is one feature that most of the guidance has actually done pretty well forecasting several days in advance, so kudos to the guidance I guess! I’m still not trusting most guidance out beyond a couple to a few days though. It’s already had varying solutions just over the last couple days for the evolution and movement of an ocean storm east of the Mid Atlantic and south southeast of New England later this week. Before we get to that, however, as we start to moderate out of the arctic air, a couple disturbances will bring some episodes of cloudiness to the region and maybe a touch of light snow later Wednesday and later Thursday. By the time we get to Friday, the ocean storm should be cranking out there at sea, and while I feel it will be far enough away for no direct impact with its precipitation shield, a northeasterly air flow between it and high pressure to our north by Friday may create a period of snow showers across southeastern portions of the WHW forecast area – something to monitor and fine tune as the week goes on. Even after we moderate from tomorrow’s bitter blast, we’ll still run on the colder side of normal through the week, the first extended stretch of cold we’ve had in quite a while.

TODAY: Partly cloudy. Isolated late-day snow showers. Highs 24-31. Wind W 10-20 MPH, higher gusts. Wind chill often below 20.

TONIGHT: Partly cloudy evening with isolated to scattered snow showers and snow squalls, some of which can briefly cause very low visibility, strong wind gusts, and quick coatings of snow with hazardous travel. Clearing overnight. Lows 3-10. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts. Wind chill -5 to -15.

TUESDAY: Sunny. Highs 7-14. Wind WNW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts. Wind chill below 0.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows -1 to +6. Wind W 5-15 MPH, diminishing. Wind chill -5 to -15 evening.

WEDNESDAY: Increasing clouds. Highs 28-35. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Snow flurries possible. Lows 20-27. Wind variable under 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 30-37. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Chance of light snow. Lows 20-27. Wind variable to N 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Partly sunny. Chance of snow showers southeastern MA. Highs 28-35.Wind NE 10-20 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JANUARY 15-19)

Watching two potential storm systems to impact the region with wintry precipitation during this period, focusing on the January 15-16 weekend (especially later Saturday into Sunday) and later January 17 into January 18. Low confidence forecast due to uncertain guidance, but the pattern supports this. Temperatures below normal.

DAYS 11-15 (JANUARY 20-24)

Similar pattern – watching for a couple potential precipitation threats. Temperatures near to below normal. No details possible this far in advance.

C-19 Chat Post – January 10 2022

DAYS 1-5 (JANUARY 9-13)

It’s an active pattern now after winter’s so-called “slow start”, which wasn’t really a slow start, it was just kind of typical for a La Nina pattern, and so is what we’re about to experience, just a little different from what we had. After our recent snow, we had a beautiful winter’s day on Saturday with lots of sun, a diminishing wind, and cold that was tolerable without wind. Today, as the atmosphere tries to warm up, and a low pressure system passes to our north sending precipitation our way, it’s warming up enough aloft so that precipitation is going to be falling as raindrops or melting from snowflakes into raindrops as it exits its birthing region in the middle troposphere. From there it will fall into colder air closer to the ground. It’s going to reach the surface in the form of rain for most, although the cold air may be thick enough to freeze it into ice pellets (sleet) over some interior areas for a while this morning. In a large portion of the region away from the immediate coast, the temperatures sit below freezing (from the upper 20s to very low 30s) as the initial batches of rain will be moving in from west to east. This spells freezing rain, and will create slippery conditions on untreated surfaces. Eventually, the surface temperatures will warm enough to eliminate this issue, but it may take several hours to do so, until a warm front gets by our area and the surfaces temperatures warm sufficiently to the upper 30s to near 40 later today. In the mean time, if you plan to be out driving or walking, keep in mind that untreated surface may be glazed with ice that is difficult to see. And tonight, once we get the cold front through, our rain threat ends, but cold air comes in quickly and again any wet and untreated surfaces will return to their icy state, being a factor later tonight as well as tomorrow until they can be treated or dry off (sublimate) enough. Tomorrow’s weather will be mainly fair, but windy and on the cold side, however this will be nothing compared to the air mass that arrives tomorrow evening with an arctic cold front, possibly announced by some snow showers and snow squalls. I’ll fine-tune that threat on the next update to the best of my ability. Squalls or no squalls though, that air mass means business, bold and cold, and Tuesday’s temperatures will struggle to be above 10 for most of us during the day, with wind chills well below zero. When we moderate back to the 20s Wednesday and the 30s Thursday, it may feel like a veritable heatwave in comparison. We’ll also have to watch a weak disturbance or two coming along from the Great Lakes / Midwest by midweek for some minor light snow threats, but these don’t look too impressive to me at the moment.

TODAY: Cloudy. Episodes of rain possibly mixed with sleet this morning, with freezing rain away from the coast eventually transitioning to non-freezing rain later in the day. Highs 36-43 occurring late in the day, except 43-50 Cape Cod. Wind calm early, then S up to 10 MPH, shifting to SW and increasing to 10-20 MPH by late in the day.

TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy evening including a chance of rain showers South Coast / Cape Cod. Clearing overnight. Black ice formation on untreated surfaces. Lows 22-29. Wind NW 10-20 MPH. Wind chill below 15 at times.

MONDAY: Mostly sunny to partly cloudy. Isolated late-day snow showers. Highs 25-32. Wind W 10-20 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy with a chance of snow showers / squalls evening. Clear overnight. Lows 3-10. Wind NW 10-20 MPH and gusty. Wind chill -5 to -15.

TUESDAY: Sunny. Highs 8-15. Wind WNW 10-20 MPH. Wind chill below 0.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows -2 to +5. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, diminishing. Wind chill -5 to -15 evening.

WEDNESDAY: Increasing clouds. Chance of light snow late-day. Highs 22-29. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Scattered light snow possible. Lows 15-22. Wind variable under 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 30-37. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JANUARY 14-18)

We enter a period of vulnerability to be impacted by first a storm over the ocean to our south, and second a low pressure area moving this way from the Midwest. It’s far too early to tell if we’ll be directly impacted by either or both of these threats, but it is something we should pay close attention to. Temperatures during this period will run below to near normal.

DAYS 11-15 (JANUARY 19-23)

Basically the situation of the previous period is expected to continue this period as well, with us in a pattern that’s vulnerable to cold and some threat of wintry precipitation. As you have already heard countless times, we can’t just look at run-to-run model guidance to try to pin point which days carry the highest threats and what might happen in each location. You know the drill by now – just something to watch and fine-tune things with time.

C-19 Chat Post – January 9 2022

DAYS 1-5 (JANUARY 8-12)

After a snow event that over-produced in some areas yesterday, thanks to that good old synoptic banding, we get to enjoy a day of wall-to-wall sunshine today, but it will start out with a biting breeze as we are still between our departing storm, now a stronger low heading out of the Canadian Maritimes into the North Atlantic, and high pressure approaching from the Great Lakes. But as this high center moves closer, winds will drop off during the day. If you are planning to travel by foot or wheels, especially this morning, keep in mind that any surfaces that were wet or slushy at the end of the day yesterday have frozen solid, and the smoother ones where a cleaner sheet of ice can form are especially hazardous. And we may be adding to the ground ice hazard in some locations on Sunday. After our nice day today, clouds will be moving in tonight ahead of a warm front that extends from low pressure that will be tracking north of us later on Sunday. Periods of rain moving in with this front will fall as freezing rain in some areas away from the coast which remain below freezing for part of the day, if not most of it. We finally get into the warm sector for a while later in the day when all areas should spend some time above freezing, with improvement in icy areas. However, this time our “warm-up” is to be short-lived. A cold front will come through here on Sunday night setting us up for a colder and breezy Monday, which will be generally dry. However, an arctic cold front will be charging through the region late in the day through early evening, and may trigger some snow showers and snow squalls. Whether or not these occur, what will definitely occur is a bitter blast of arctic air from Monday night through Tuesday night. Temperature moderation takes place Wednesday, though it will still be cold, and we’ll see clouds arrive with a weak low pressure area approaching via the Great Lakes that may result in some light snowfall if it has enough moisture.

TODAY: Sunny. Highs 25-32. Wind NW 5-15 MPH with higher gusts morning, diminishing afternoon.

TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 13-20 evening, rising into the 20s overnight. Wind calm evening, S up to 10 MPH overnight.

SUNDAY: Early sun possible especially eastern coastal locations, otherwise mainly cloudy. Scattered rain with pockets of freezing rain inland late morning and midday. Chance of rain showers all areas later in the afternoon. Highs 36-43 occurring late in the day. Wind S up to 10 MPH morning, SW 10-20 MPH afternoon.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy evening including a chance of rain showers South Coast / Cape Cod. Clearing overnight. Black ice formation on untreated surfaces. Lows 22-29. Wind NW 10-20 MPH. Wind chill below 15 at times.

MONDAY: Mostly sunny to partly cloudy. Isolated late-day snow showers. Highs 25-32. Wind W 10-20 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy with a chance of snow showers / squalls evening. Clear overnight. Lows 3-10. Wind NW 10-20 MPH and gusty. Wind chill -5 to -15.

TUESDAY: Sunny. Highs 8-15. Wind WNW 10-20 MPH. Wind chill below 0.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows -2 to +5. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, diminishing. Wind chill -5 to -15 evening.

WEDNESDAY: Increasing clouds. Chance of light snow late-day. Highs 22-29. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JANUARY 13-17)

Expecting generally below normal temperatures during this period. Watching for an ocean storm to evolve early to mid period that earliest indications show will remain at sea, but this type of pattern can set up an onshore flow that in a cold pattern can lead to ocean-effect snow showers. Watching another system for potential wintry weather impact near the end of the period but confidence is far lower on that.

DAYS 11-15 (JANUARY 18-22)

Expecting generally below normal temperatures to continue for this period. General pattern looks on the dry side but can’t rule out 1 or 2 wintry precipitation threats.

C-19 Chat Post – January 8 2022

DAYS 1-5 (JANUARY 7-11)

A quick-hitting but potent snowstorm this morning, especially under a solid synoptic band of heavy snow that sits right over Metro Boston extending south southwest and north northeast around the back side of strengthening low pressure as it passes by to the southeast. For many it’s a fluffy snow, which helps the amounts add up more, but keeps it from being heavy/wet. Wetter snow is confined to the Cape Cod region with some rain mixing in on Nantucket, where amounts will be lightest, building up to heaviest in eastern MA and RI, then dropping off as you head northwest to north central MA and southwestern NH (a similar profile to the previously mentioned amounts, which will be heavier than previously mentioned). The storm winds down this afternoon and is gone tonight. Fair and cold due to Canadian high pressure Saturday. A warm-up Sunday, but still cold enough that if rain showers arriving from the west are early enough there may be some icing over the interior. That will be from a cold front that will introduce much colder air for Monday and a secondary front that will bring in a blast of pure arctic air for Tuesday. Generally dry weather is expected those days with the exception of a possible snow squall with the arrival of Arctic air Monday evening. We’ll focus more on that after we get by this current system.

TODAY: Cloudy through midday with snow of 6 to 12 inches (maximum amounts northwestern RI to Metro Boston to Cape Ann), except 3 to 6 inches mid Cape Cod and Martha’s Vineyard and 1-3 inches outer Cape Cod and Nantucket with rain mixed in, and under 6 inches in north central MA and southwestern NH. Breaking clouds and a glimpse of sun possible later in the day. Highs 28-35. Wind N 5-15 MPH except 15-25 MPH over Cape Cod and the Islands.

TONIGHT: Clearing. Lows 12-19. Wind NW 10-20 MPH and gusty. Wind chill often near 0.

SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 27-34. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 15-22. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY: Early sun then mostly cloudy. Chance of rain showers possibly mixed with sleet and/or snow I-95 eastward, and snow/sleet showers possibly mixed with freezing rain then eventually west of I-95, mostly midday and afternoon. Highs 37-44. Wind SW 10-20 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy evening. Clearing overnight. Lows 22-29. Wind NW 10-20 MPH. Wind chill below 15 at times.

MONDAY: Mostly sunny to partly cloudy. Isolated late-day snow showers. Highs 25-32. Wind W 10-20 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy with a chance of snow showers / squalls evening. Clear overnight. Lows 8-13. Wind NW 10-20 MPH and gusty. Wind chill below 0.

TUESDAY: Sunny. Highs 12-19. Wind WNW 10-20 MPH. Wind chill below 0.

DAYS 6-10 (JANUARY 12-16)

A couple of weak low pressure systems bring threats of snow or snow showers but overall pattern is cold and on the dry side.

DAYS 11-15 (JANUARY 17-21)

Overall pattern looks colder than average with a couple of snowfall threats possible, but generally drier than normal.

C-19 Chat Post – January 7 2022

DAYS 1-5 (JANUARY 6-10)

If you are walking or driving on untreated surfaces early to mid morning, there are some icy spots mostly in the I-95 area westward as it was cold enough overnight to freeze the moisture on surface left behind by rainfall. High pressure brings dry and seasonably chilly air to our region today. Friday, we will see our first widespread significant snow of the season, a moderate and short-duration event as low pressure scoots northeastward off the Mid Atlantic Coast and passes southeast of New England in the process of heading toward the Canadian Maritimes. This low pressure area will be in the process of intensifying as it races by, so we’ll likely see some banding of heavier snowfall in a general area of light to moderate snow. Despite some inflated shorter range model numbers on recent runs, I’m not going to make any real changes to my preliminary outlook from yesterday other than some minor tweaks. Behind this system, expect a dry and cold day Saturday, then a quick moderation Sunday but along with the threat of some light precipitation (rain showers coast, mix or snow showers inland) moving through as low pressure passes north of the region and we see its warm front / cold front combination go by us. This will introduce a colder air mass for Monday as dry weather returns.

TODAY: Sun and high clouds. Highs 36-43. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Clouding up. Snow arriving pre-dawn. Lows 23-30. Wind N up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Cloudy through midday with snow of 3 to 6 inches, except 1 to 3 inches mid Cape Cod and Martha’s Vineyard where some rain mixes in and up to 1 inch outer Cape Cod and Nantucket where more rain falls, and pockets of over 6 inches possible favoring interior southeastern MA / RI, and also some sub-3-inch amounts possible in north central MA and southwestern NH. Breaking clouds and a glimpse of sun possible later in the day. Highs 28-35. Wind N 5-15 MPH except 15-25 MPH over Cape Cod and the Islands.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Lows 12-19. Wind NW 10-20 MPH and gusty. Wind chill often near 0.

SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 27-34. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 18-25. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY: Early sun then mostly cloudy. Chance of rain showers possibly mixed with sleet and/or snow I-95 eastward, and snow/sleet showers possibly mixed with rain west of I-95, mostly midday and afternoon. Highs 37-44. Wind SW 10-20 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy evening. Clearing overnight. Lows 22-29. Wind NW 10-20 MPH. Wind chill below 15 at times.

MONDAY: Mostly sunny to partly cloudy. Isolated late-day snow showers. Highs 25-32. Wind W 10-20 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JANUARY 11-15)

One-day shot of bitterly cold air January 11. A couple of weak low pressure systems bring threats of snow or snow showers (maybe some mix) thereafter, but too early for details on any precipitation threats.

DAYS 11-15 (JANUARY 16-20)

Overall pattern looks colder than average with a couple of snowfall threats possible, but generally drier than normal.

C-19 Chat Post – January 6 2022