DAYS 1-5 (JANUARY 5-9)

High pressure is now east of our region and a warm front is passing through this morning. A combination of increasing mid level moisture and low level moisture will result in patchy drizzle and scattered to numerous rain showers from this morning through early afternoon. While the precipitation will be the most spotty over the interior (west of I-95), some of it can fall as freezing drizzle/rain this morning while temperatures are still below freezing, creating slippery travel on untreated surfaces. Temperatures will rise sufficiently to put an end to any problems by noon. East of I-95, there’s no icing threat, but that is where rain showers will be most numerous with even a heavier shower possible in some locations. The mild air of today will be short-lived, as a cold front will cross the region this evening and return a colder air mass to us. Thursday will see fair weather thanks to a small area of high pressure, but a low pressure area emerging off the Mid Atlantic Coast will move quickly northeastward, passing southeast of New England, bringing a widespread snowfall to the region Thursday night and Friday. The progressive pattern and slow strengthening of this low will prevent it from being a major snowstorm for our area, but it will be the first widespread appreciable snowfall of the season. Mixing with rain over outer Cape Cod through Martha’s Vineyard may hold down snowfall amounts there, and even more so on Nantucket, as the ocean water temperatures are still rather warm to prevent such influence. Also, lighter precipitation amounts will keep snowfall accumulations on the lower side as you head north and west of Boston. The current call on the “jackpot area” for snowfall is Boston’s southern suburbs and interior areas of southeastern MA that combine the heaviest precipitation with snow-supporting temperatures – but even there, not a major snowstorm. The fast movement of this system essentially makes it about a 10 hour event, from pre-dawn to early afternoon Friday, and we may even see breaks of sun before Friday is over. Expect fair and seasonably cold weather Saturday to very early Sunday before the next low pressure system impacts the region later Sunday. This one is more likely to be tracking north of our region, allowing a warm up and bringing the chance of rain showers.

TODAY: Mostly cloudy. Patchy drizzle and rain showers early through mid morning with some icing possible on untreated surfaces mostly west of I-95. Scattered to numerous rain showers, most numerous southeastern MA especially Cape Cod, mid through late morning. Highs 45-52. Wind variable under 10 MPH early becoming SW 5-15 MPH inland and 10-20 MPH coast with higher gusts.

TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy evening. Partly cloudy overnight. Lows 30-37. Wind shifting to NW 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 36-43. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Becoming cloudy. Snow arriving pre-dawn southwest to northeast. Lows 23-30. Wind variable up to 10 MPH becoming NE.

FRIDAY: Cloudy through midday with snow likely (may mix with rain Cape Cod and Islands), accumulating 2-6 inches, heaviest interior southeastern MA. Breaking clouds and partial sun possible later in the day. Highs 28-35. Wind NE to N 5-15 MPH with higher gusts especially coastal areas, shifting to NW later in the day.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Lows 12-19. Wind NW 10-20 MPH and gusty.

SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 28-35. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 18-25. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY: Early sun then mostly cloudy. Chance of rain showers afternoon. Highs 40-47. Wind SW 10-20 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JANUARY 10-14)

Shot of arctic air early next week. Moderating temperatures but the chance of some unsettled weather later next week. More details to come.

DAYS 11-15 (JANUARY 15-19)

Overall pattern looks colder than average with a couple of snowfall threats possible, but generally drier than normal.

C-19 Chat Post – January 5 2022

DAYS 1-5 (JANUARY 4-8)

Our pattern while similar in terms of activity starts to trend colder as we pierce January. One would expect this as we head toward the heart of winter as well as little further away from a pattern that kept us so mild. But we’re not done with mild air quite yet. You may not feel that way if you step outside this morning where many places sit below 20. First, we will have a bright and cold day today, the first day with substantial sun since December 23. High pressure will provide this for us, and it won’t be as cold as yesterday was, though still chilly – with temperatures climbing into the 30s. High pressure shifts offshore and low pressure passes north of the region Wednesday – a mild day that turns wet. A cold front will charge through the area Wednesday night returning a seasonable chill to us by Thursday. This sets up a wintry precipitation threat for Friday as low pressure takes aim at the Northeast. Model guidance is still showing a fairly large spread of outcomes, not only in the low pressure’s track, development, and intensity, but in snowfall amounts for the region. For example, through midday Friday, model snowfall output for Boston range from nothing at all to just under 1 foot of snow. Ah, so the accumulation is going to be 0 to 12 inches? Sure. That’s one way to look at it, but not the right way. The right way to look at it is that it’s still too soon to talk numbers. I’ll go no further than just saying that the higher probability, based on how I think the pattern will help this play out, is a light to moderate snowfall for the majority of the region. But there are still questions to be answered and fine tuning to do. Behind this system comes a cold and dry day to start the weekend on Saturday.

TODAY: Sunny. Highs 33-40. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Increasing clouds. Temperatures steady 33-40. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Brief sleet possible northern MA southern NH early morning. Chance of rain showers midday-afternoon, favoring eastern areas. Highs 45-52. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Chance of rain showers in the evening. Lows 33-40. Wind shifting to NW 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 36-43. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Lows 28-35. Wind variable 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Cloudy with snow/mix likely. Highs 34-41. Wind variable 10-20 mostly E to N 10-20 MPH and gusty.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Lows 12-19. Wind NW 10-20 MPH and gusty.

SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 28-35. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JANUARY 9-13)

Systems may bring precipitation later January 9 into January 10, with another threat later in the period. Overall temperature trend is colder.

DAYS 11-15 (JANUARY 14-18)

Trend continues to be for near to below normal temperatures near on the drier side of normal for precipitation but active enough that a couple snow/mix threats can occur.

C-19 Chat Post – January 4 2022

DAYS 1-5 (JANUARY 3-7)

Low pressure moving rapidly northeastward will pass southeast of New England today. With cold air in place, the northern edge of its precipitation shield will be in the form of snow and bring an accumulating snowfall to the islands of Nantucket and Martha’s Vineyard and a minor accumulation to the immediate South Coast of New England during the day today. We may also see some coatings of snow on the MA South Shore due to some ocean effect snow shower bands that may set up there as the day goes on. This will also be our coldest day we’ve seen in quite some time with pretty much the entire region failing to reach freezing and many areas staying in the 20s. The exception is Cape Cod and the Islands which sit just above freezing as of sunrise but will see the temperatures go down a few degrees during the day with the help of snow falling into air that is drying out at the surface resulting in cooling. The temperatures will moderate to a more seasonable chill on Tuesday as high pressure brings fair weather. This high slides offshore and moisture streams northward ahead of an approaching cold front on Wednesday, parented by low pressure that will pass north of our region by early Thursday. So Wednesday will be unsettled but mild, and Thursday will turn fair and cooler as the cold front pushes offshore. We’ve been watching the late week period for a storm threat, and as is to be expected, model guidance is all over the place solutions, so for now I’ll just keep the idea of unsettled weather with a chance of some snow/mix/rain for Friday, then fine-tune as we go along this week.

TODAY: Mostly cloudy. Snow showers possible MA South Shore with dustings. A period of snow South Coast and Cape Cod (accumulating a coating to 2 inches) and the islands (accumulating 2 to 5 inches, heaviest on Nantucket). Highs 25-32 except as high as 35 Cape Cod / Islands early day. Wind NW to NE 5-15 MPH, higher gusts possible.

TONIGHT: Clearing. Lows 12-18. Wind NW 5-15 MPH. Wind chill often below 10.

TUESDAY: Sunny. Highs 33-40. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Increasing clouds. Temperatures steady 33-40. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of rain showers. Highs 43-50. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Chance of rain showers in the evening. Lows 33-40. Wind shifting to NW 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 36-43. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Lows 28-35. Wind variable 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Cloudy with a chance of snow/mix/rain. Highs 35-42. Wind variable 10-20 MPH and gusty.

DAYS 6-10 (JANUARY 8-12)

Fast-moving systems. Fair/cold January 8, milder January 9, next frontal system brings chance of mix/rain showers later January 9 to early January 10, fair and colder to follow, and another disturbance may approach late period. This is not a high confidence forecasts with unreliable guidance, mainly developed due to pattern anticipation / timing.

DAYS 11-15 (JANUARY 13-17)

Mid January trends continue to look a little cold, and questions remain as to our snow chances, as it looks a little on the drier side, but this remains a very low confidence forecast.

C-19 Chat Post – January 3 2022

DAYS 1-5 (JANUARY 2-6)

This second day of 2022 will be a transition day. We’ll be heading out of our mild and wet spell that started the year off and toward our first significant cold shot in a while. A cold front will cross the region during the day today into this evening. While we start out with abundant low level moisture, producing lots of drizzle and fog, the only real rainfall around early this morning is over Nantucket which sits on the northern edge of a solid swath of rain to the south, pretty much all of it to miss New England during today. Instead, we’ll see some rain showers try to move in from the north and west with the cold front, but at the same time the available moisture will be decreasing, so the greatest chance for these showers is north of Boston, in northeastern MA and southern NH. By the time the temperature has dropped enough to support snow showers, most of the moisture will be gone, but I’ll leave the slight chance in the forecast tonight in case we see a few stray flakes make it into the WHW forecast area. This leads us to a one-day shot of very cold air for Monday, while a wave of low pressure travels rapidly northeastward, passing southeast of New England, far enough to spare the region a snowstorm, but close enough so that some flakes may visit Cape Cod and the Islands enough to accumulate a little bit, including with a little ocean enhancement, and some flakes in the air may get as far north as Boston for a brief period of time, but this is far less likely with the very dry air that will be in place. This is also potentially the set-up for a good sunset, depending on the timing and placement of the edge of the cloud shield, so photographers, be on stand-by for that, just in case. Snow or not, good sunset or not, it will be cold Monday through Tuesday morning – something we’ve not had to contend with much this young winter season. And like other times, the cold shot will be fleeting with moderating temperatures heading toward the middle of the week. Fair weather is expected Tuesday with high pressure in control, and then low pressure will pass northwest of the region on Wednesday, its warm front / cold front combo bringing us some unsettled weather. Drier and cooler air will follow this for Thursday.

TODAY: Cloudy with areas of fog and drizzle, some rain Nantucket, during the morning. Mostly cloudy with a chance of rain showers, favoring southern NH and northeastern MA, this afternoon. Highs 44-51 occurring in the morning then falling slowly during the afternoon. Wind W to NW increasing to 10-20 MPH with higher gusts by the end of the day.

TONIGHT: Variably cloudy. A passing light snow shower possible, favoring northern MA and southern NH. Lows 18-25. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts. wind chill below 20.

MONDAY: Mostly cloudy but some filtered sun north and west of Boston. Chance of snow with minor accumulation (up to an inch or two) favoring Cape Cod and Islands. Highs 27-34. Wind NW to N 10-20 MPH, higher gusts. Wind chill below 20 at times.

MONDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Lows 12-18. Wind NW 5-15 MPH. Wind chill often below 10.

TUESDAY: Sunny. Highs 33-40. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Increasing clouds. Temperatures steady 33-40. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of rain showers. Highs 43-50. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Chance of rain showers in the evening. Lows 33-40. Wind shifting to NW 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 40-47 in the morning, then turning cooler. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JANUARY 7-11)

A storm system passing by, probably just to the southeast, will bring the chance of some snow/mix January 7 followed by fair and cold weather for the January 8-9 weekend. Slight moderation and another precipitation threat later in the period.

DAYS 11-15 (JANUARY 12-16)

Mid January has a colder look to it, and some questions remain as to our snow chances, as it looks a little on the drier side, but this remains a low confidence forecast.

C-19 Chat Post – January 2 2022

DAYS 1-5 (JANUARY 1-5)

Welcome to 2022! Happy New Year to all! We’ll start the year with weather that reminds me of New Year’s Day 1985, except with a slightly more uniform temperature profile. Back on that Tuesday in the mid 1980s, we had a low pressure area passing to our northwest with warm air aloft. A warm front was struggling to get through parts of the region, which were stuck in the upper 30s as high pressure in eastern Canada was sending a little wedge of low level cold down across parts of the region. Eventually everybody warmed into the 50s once the front went through on that occasionally rainy day with drizzle and fog. We have similar weather today, but the colder air is stuck further north (from about Manchester NH northward), so the WHW area is a little bit more uniformly in the 40s to around 50, and these temperatures will not change all that much today, and even tonight, when we get another surge of rainfall from the passing low. Sunday, a transition begins, which the low’s trailing cold front pulls through the region and temperatures that remain steady for a while then start to fall. Most of the moisture associated with the current system will have exited by the time this front is making its way across the area, but it may produce some rain showers during the day and as colder air comes in a follow up trough can trigger a few snow showers during Sunday night. Monday will feature mid-winter cold, but it will be fleeting, as we moderate rather quickly Tuesday and Wednesday ahead of the next approaching low pressure system, which may bring rain showers by Wednesday.

TODAY (NEW YEAR’S DAY): Cloudy. Periods of rain. Areas of drizzle and fog. Highs 43-50. Wind SE to S 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Cloudy. Rain likely. Areas of drizzle and fog. Lows 38-45. Wind S to SW 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of rain showers. Areas of fog early. Highs 45-52 occurring in the morning then falling slowly during the afternoon. Wind SW 10-20 MPH shifting to W.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Chance of snow showers. Lows 20-27. Wind W 10-20 MPH shifting to NW, higher gusts.

MONDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 28-35. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts. Wind chill below 20 at times.

MONDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 12-18. Wind NW 5-15 MPH. Wind chill below 10 at times.

TUESDAY: Sunny. Highs 33-40. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Increasing clouds. Temperatures steady 33-40. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of rain showers. Highs 43-50. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JANUARY 6-10)

Watch for some unsettled weather with us near a boundary of mild and colder air in the January 6-8 time frame, leaving the door open for rain, mix, or snow. Fair, colder finish to the period.

DAYS 11-15 (JANUARY 11-15)

Mid January has a colder look to it, and some questions remain as to our snow chances, as it looks a little on the drier side of average, but this is LOW confidence so don’t draw the conclusion that there are no chances for any wintry weather.

C-19 Chat Post – January 1 2022

DAYS 1-5 (DECEMBER 31 – JANUARY 4)

We’re about to change the year but keep the same pattern. And so it goes. The final day of 2021 will feature low level moisture plaguing us at the surface with low clouds, fog, and patches of drizzle, while some upper level energy adds the chance of a few rain showers. This doesn’t change all that much this evening as we count down the final hours of the year and welcome 2022, which will open with an unsettled weekend. Low pressure tracks across the Northeast Saturday with periods of rain as the air will be too mild to support any freezing or frozen precipitation. A cold front does pull through the region on Sunday with a few more rain showers around, but as colder air finally does arrive any leftover precipitation would be snow showers at night, and then we get a sharp but brief shot of cold air Monday. But this pattern does not let cold hang around long and we’ll already be moderating by Tuesday with continued fair weather.

TODAY: Cloudy. Areas of fog and drizzle. Isolated to scattered rain showers. Highs 40-47. Wind variable under 10 MPH.

TONIGHT (NEW YEAR’S EVE): Cloudy. Areas of fog and drizzle. Isolated rain showers. Lows 38-45. Wind variable to S up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY (NEW YEAR’S DAY): Cloudy. Periods of rain. Highs 42-49. Wind SE to S 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Rain likely. Areas of drizzle and fog. Lows 38-45. Wind S to SW 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of rain showers. Areas of fog early. Highs 45-52. Wind SW 10-20 MPH shifting to W.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Chance of snow showers. Lows 20-27. Wind W 10-20 MPH shifting to NW, higher gusts.

MONDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 28-35. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts. Wind chill below 20 at times.

MONDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 12-18. Wind NW 5-15 MPH. Wind chill below 10 at times.

TUESDAY: Sunny. Highs 33-40. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JANUARY 5-9)

Moderating temperatures early period. Mid period unsettled weather, track of low pressure to determine scope and type of precipitation. Fair, colder finish to the period.

DAYS 11-15 (JANUARY 10-14)

Same overall pattern but a hint at a colder trend. One or two systems may bring precipitation threats.

C-19 Chat Post – December 31 2021

DAYS 1-5 (DECEMBER 30 – JANUARY 3)

La Nina / weak to moderate MJO mostly in phase 7 / positive NAO / etc… There are some of you who know what this means, and others that may not. Basically these 3 and other (etc) reasons as well are why our overall weather pattern is as it is and isn’t really changing all that much for now either. Highlights are quick-moving but not powerful storm systems in fairly regular and frequent succession, rain favored over snow, overall mild but brief cold. The next weak low crosses the region tonight and early Friday. A small bubble of high pressure moves in later Friday but with weak air flow and a lot of low level moisture, any clearing we see will be very limited. The next low, while not a strong system, will have more moisture with it, and we look for a rainy start to 2022 on Saturday. While the trailing frontal system from this low is to be somewhat aligned with the upper level winds, it won’t move offshore all that quickly, and with another wave of low pressure moving along it and upper level energy still to swing through, we stay unsettled though mild into Sunday as well, though rainfall will take the form of more showers than steady. Finally later Sunday colder air will arrive, but most of the precipitation will have exited and we may just see a few snow showers with its arrival. A brief but sharp cold shot follows for Monday as a chunk of cold air is pulled southeastward out of Canada and into the northeastern US, but this will come along with dry weather between low pressure to the east and high pressure to the west.

TODAY: Cloudy. Area of drizzle and fog. Patchy light rain possible late-day. Highs 40-47. Wind variable under 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Cloudy. Areas of drizzle and fog. Chance of light rain. Lows 33-40. Wind variable under 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Cloudy start with areas of fog and drizzle and a chance of light rain. Mostly cloudy midday on with a few breaks of sun possible as well. Highs 40-47. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT (NEW YEAR’S EVE): Mostly cloudy. Lows 38-45. Wind variable to S up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY (NEW YEAR’S DAY): Cloudy. Periods of rain. Highs 42-49. Wind SE to S 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Chance of rain. Areas of drizzle and fog. Lows 38-45. Wind S to SW 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of rain showers. Areas of fog early. Highs 45-52. Wind SW 10-20 MPH shifting to W.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Chance of snow showers. Lows 20-27. Wind W 10-20 MPH shifting to NW, higher gusts.

MONDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 28-35. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts. Wind chill below 20 at times.

DAYS 6-10 (JANUARY 4-8)

Fast-moving systems as the same general pattern continues. Unreliable guidance and difficulty in timing anything leads to a general idea of fair weather and moderating temperatures early in the period, unsettled weather mid period, fair and colder weather later in the period, but this is a low confidence outlook.

DAYS 11-15 (JANUARY 9-13)

Same overall pattern but a hint at a colder trend. One or two systems may bring precipitation threats.

C-19 Chat Post – December 30 2021

DAYS 1-5 (DECEMBER 29 – JANUARY 2)

The remains of a low pressure system exit today but clouds hang in after the chance of an early snow flurry. The next system in the string of disturbances arrives Thursday, but this time the atmosphere will be warm enough to support just a light rain event. A bubble of high pressure brings a drier day for the last of 2021, though the clouds may be stubborn to let go. As 2022 arrives, the pattern will stay the same, and the next low pressure area, this one with a bit more moisture available, arrives on New Year’s Day with more rain. Behind this one another low should pass to the south of New England on a trailing frontal system, but far enough away to keep its main precipitation off to the south and east while we just see rain showers on Sunday from an upper level disturbance, which may end as snow showers as colder air arrives.

TODAY: Mostly cloudy. A few snow flurries around early. Highs 37-44. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Lows 30-37. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Cloudy. Light rain mostly midday and afternoon. Highs 40-47. Wind variable to S up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Cloudy with a chance of rain during the evening. Mostly to partly cloudy overnight. Areas of black ice forming. Lows 27-34. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy to partly sunny. Highs 36-41. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT (NEW YEAR’S EVE): Increasing clouds. Lows 29-36. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY (NEW YEAR’S DAY): Cloudy. Periods of rain. Highs 42-49. Wind SE to E 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Chance of rain. Areas of drizzle and fog. Lows 35-42. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Mostly cloudy to partly sunny. Chance of rain showers, may end as snow showers. Highs 42-49 morning, falling into the 30s during the afternoon. Wind variable becoming W increasing to 10-20 MPH and gusty.

DAYS 6-10 (JANUARY 3-7)

Same overall pattern. A colder/dry interlude followed by moderating and another precipitation (favoring rain) chance later in the period.

DAYS 11-15 (JANUARY 8-12)

Pattern remains active, temperature trend appears to be colder, potentially increasing opportunities for some snowfall.