C-19 Chat Post – December 29 2021

DAYS 1-5 (DECEMBER 28 – JANUARY 1)

A caution: Overnight some areas of rain and snow moved through and in some locations the ground is icy due to temperatures at or just below freezing where rain or partial snow melt occurred. Use caution exiting home / apartments and walking / driving on untreated surfaces, especially north and west of Boston. This will only last a short while as temperatures will rise above freezing during this morning and melt any of the ice. Our weather pattern continues to be one where we see most of the cold and snow in the western US, a very mild and dry southeastern US, and frequent but weak weather systems passing through our region between the two. Another such weather system passes by during tonight and early Wednesday, producing a light variety of precipitation. The next one on its heels will be a rain event Thursday. We enjoy a dry final day of 2021 on Friday thanks to an area of high pressure, and it won’t be all that cold for activities such as First Night in Boston that include many outdoor events. As 2022 arrives though, we’ll already be seeing impact from the next low pressure area coming along. Indications are that this will be a rain event too.

TODAY: Cloudy with spotty snow flurries and sprinkles of rain as well as patchy light fog early morning, then mostly cloudy to partly sunny. Highs 40-47. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Light snow/ice/rain possible overnight. Lows 28-35. Wind N under 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Cloudy. Spotty light mix/ice away from coast, rain coast, mainly in the morning. Highs 37-44. Wind E 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Lows 30-37. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of light rain, may start as freezing rain away from the coast. Highs 40-47. Wind variable to S up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Cloudy with a chance of rain during the evening. Clearing overnight. Watch for black ice formation. Lows 25-32. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Mostly sunny to partly cloudy. Highs 35-42. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT (NEW YEAR’S EVE): Increasing clouds. Lows 28-35. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY (NEW YEAR’S DAY): Cloudy. Periods of rain. Highs 42-49. Wind SE to E 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JANUARY 2-6)

Transition from mild/wet to cold/dry early in the period. Moderating temperatures and one or two systems bringing precipitation chances mid to late period as the active weather pattern continues.

DAYS 11-15 (JANUARY 7-11)

Pattern remains active, temperature trend appears to be colder, potentially increasing opportunities for some snowfall.

C-19 Chat Post – December 28 2021

DAYS 1-5 (DECEMBER 27-31)

The final 5-days of 2021 will present a continuation of the weather pattern we’ve been in: Frequent weather systems passing through, no major storms in terms of powerful low pressure areas, but plenty of things to keep track of. The ridge of high pressure in the southeastern US remains a major player in the large scale pattern while we see some seriously cold air enter the western US, helping to fuel the contrast that keeps these systems coming. Locally, we’ll only see minor impacts from these systems as there is not much support to keep them healthy as they move through the region. After a nice but cold start today, we’ll see clouds move in ahead of the next disturbance which will result in a little bit of snow, ice, and rain tonight, depending on your location. A second impulse will come along later Tuesday night into Wednesday, producing a minor variety of precipitation. Despite these being “minor” events in terms of strength and duration, both of them can become a little more significant in that they both bring threats of some icing conditions away from the immediate coast where freezing rain occurs, so travel hazards for walking and driving on untreated surfaces exist for both late tonight into Tuesday morning and again early Wednesday. The air should warm enough so that the next threat from a system moving through on Thursday should be mostly in the form of light rain, but temperature may also be marginal for icing over some interior areas for this, depending on its timing, so we have to keep an eye on it too. It looks like an area of high pressure should bring dry weather at the end of this 5-day period as we reach the final day of 2021 on Friday.

TODAY: Sunshine followed by clouds. Highs 31-38. Wind W up to 10 MPH becoming variable under 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Cloudy. Late evening and overnight light snow to freezing rain except mix to rain South Coast region and South Shore of MA. Lows 22-29 evening, rising to 30-37 overnight. Wind S under 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Cloudy with spotty light freezing rain inland and rain near the coast early, then partly sunny. Highs 40-47. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Light snow/ice/rain possible overnight. Lows 28-35. Wind N under 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Cloudy. Spotty light mix/ice away from coast, rain coast, mainly in the morning. Highs 37-44. Wind E 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Lows 30-37. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of light rain, may start as freezing rain away from the coast. Highs 40-47. Wind variable to S up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Lows 25-32. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Mostly sunny to partly cloudy. Highs 35-42. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JANUARY 1-5)

New year, continued active pattern, as we watch for precipitation events on New Year’s Weekend (January 1-2) and another toward the end of the period. The confidence is low on any forecast out beyond a few days still, so won’t try to guess on any details for these events. Variable temperatures averaging close to normal.

DAYS 11-15 (JANUARY 6-10)

Pattern remains active, temperature trend appears to be colder.

C-19 Chat Post – December 27 2021

DAYS 1-5 (DECEMBER 26-30)

The Christmas event was a little more potent than even our best short range guidance indicated, representing the second significant failure by short range guidance in as many months and reinforcing the idea that even that needs to be taken with some salt grains in this pattern, which will continue for some time to come. We see improvement today as our most recent system moves away to the east and a bubble of high pressure moves in later today into Monday. It’s important to note that some areas, especially west and north of Boston, still have ice on untreated surfaces that will take a while to melt away, but should do so for the most part by later today… We’ll be eyeing two low pressure systems for this 5-day period as we head down the home stretch of 2021. The indications are that neither of these will be major systems, and that the first one will be in the process of dissipating as it passes by Monday night and early Tuesday, and the second one will also be weakening but may have more moisture with it as it comes through the region Wednesday. Fine-tuning will be needed…

TODAY: Mostly cloudy to partly sunny. Highs 35-42. Wind N-NW 10-20 MPH and gusty.

TONIGHT: Clearing. Lows 18-25. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, diminishing.

MONDAY: Sunny to partly cloudy. Highs 33-40. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy with a brief period of light snow possible. Lows 23-30. Wind variable under 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Variably cloudy. Highs 35-42. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Lows 28-35. Wind NE under 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Cloudy. Chance of snow/mix north, mix/rain south. Highs 35-42. Wind NE-E 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Cloudy with a chance of rain/mix/snow evening. Breaking clouds overnight. Lows 33-40. Wind SE 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 38-45. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (DECEMBER 31 – JANUARY 4)

Two disturbance may bring episodes of precipitation during this period, favored times around January 1 and 4. Neither look like major events. Temperatures variable, averaging close to normal.

DAYS 11-15 (JANUARY 5-9)

Variable temperatures, averaging close to normal. One or two disturbances bring precipitation threats.

C-19 Chat Post – December 26 2021

DAYS 1-5 (DECEMBER 25-29)

A Christmas Day travel hazard due to freezing rain (except the South Shore of MA and South Coast region where the temperature is already and will remain above freezing. As the rain moves in early this morning from the west, it will freeze on untreated surfaces where temperatures are at or below 32F. We won’t see enough icing for tree damage and power outages, but we will see enough for hazardous driving and walking on untreated surfaces until such a time that the temperature rises sufficiently to stop the process and melt the ice on these surfaces. This may take much of the day to happen especially over interior areas to the west and north of Boston. With low pressure pulling away and intensifying through Sunday, other than the possibility of a few snow flurries from an upper level disturbance, we will be dry and not too cold, so most icy spots will melt away / dry up and walking conditions will improve. High pressure brings fair weather Monday into Tuesday. The next low pressure area is due Wednesday with another round of unsettled weather, early leaning toward rain over snow.

TODAY (CHRISTMAS DAY): Cloudy. Rain arriving from west to east early. Icing conditions away from the coast, gradually diminishing from southeast to northwest later in the day. Highs 33-40. Wind E to N up to 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Chance of mix/snow showers. Lows 26-33. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of snow showers. Highs 35-42. Wind N-NW 10-20 MPH and gusty.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Lows 17-24. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, diminishing.

MONDAY: Sunny to partly cloudy. Highs 33-40. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Lows 23-30. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Variably cloudy. Highs 35-42. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Lows 28-35. Wind SE under 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Cloudy. Mix/rain likely. Highs 38-45. Wind SE 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (DECEMBER 30 – JANUARY 3)

Two disturbance may bring episodes of precipitation during this period. Neither look like major events. Temperatures near to slightly below normal.

DAYS 11-15 (JANUARY 4-8)

Variable temperatures, averaging close to normal. One or two disturbances bring precipitation threats. Timing / details not possible this far in advance.

C-19 Chat Post – December 25 2021

DAYS 1-5 (DECEMBER 24-28)

A little bit of winter weather for Christmas Eve and Christmas Day. Our region sits on the colder side of a frontal boundary today as a wave of low pressure moves by this morning, producing a light snowfall for the region. The boundary shifts a little bit to the north allowing some warming aloft as another disturbance comes along for Christmas Day, so any precipitation that starts as sleet or snow in northern MA northward will quickly switch to freezing rain/drizzle, especially away from the coast, with icing likely. To the south, the temperature should be warm enough so that most areas see rain, but there still could be some pockets of freezing rain away from the coast in the early morning. The surface should warm enough to transition most areas to non-freezing rain by midday, except a few lingering pockts of icing in places like the Merrimack Valley and southern NH. While this will not be a major system, it doesn’t take much freezing precipitation to produce hazardous walking and driving conditions on untreated surfaces, so keep this in mind if you are doing holiday travel by wheels or by feet. The low pressure area responsible for the Christmas Day precipitation will intensify as it moves away to the east on Sunday, leaving us with a blustery and chilly ending to the holiday weekend with a few snow showers possible as an upper disturbance moves through. When we get to early next week, we’ll again find ourselves on the colder side of a boundary with additional disturbances trying to make it out of the Midwest into the Northeast. I don’t have much faith in these systems surviving fully, so we’ll probably just end up with varying amounts of cloud cover with mostly precipitation-free conditions. That’s the leaning for now.

TODAY: Cloudy with snow of a coating to 1 inch (locally up to 2 inches) this morning. Partly sunny this afternoon. Highs 28-35. Wind NW up to 10 MPH.

TONIGHT (CHRISTMAS EVE): Clouds return. A little snow or sleet possible southern NH and northern MA pre-dawn, with a bit of light rain / freezing rain to the south. Lows 25-32 evening, rising slowly overnight. Wind N to E under 10 MPH.

SATURDAY (CHRISTMAS DAY): Cloudy. Periods of rain with freezing rain away from the coast and especially near and north of I-90, transitioning to plain rain from south to north before tapering off during midday-afternoon. Highs 34-41. Wind E to N up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Chance of mix/snow showers. Lows 26-33. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of snow showers. Highs 33-40. Wind N-NW 10-20 MPH and gusty.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Lows 17-24. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, diminishing.

MONDAY: Sunny to partly cloudy. Highs 33-40. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Lows 23-30. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Variably cloudy. Highs 35-42. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (DECEMBER 29 – JANUARY 2)

Two disturbance may bring episodes of precipitation during this period. Neither look like major events. Temperatures near to slightly below normal.

DAYS 11-15 (JANUARY 3-7)

Variable temperatures, averaging close to normal. One or two disturbances bring precipitation threats. Timing / details not possible this far in advance.

C-19 Chat Post – December 24 2021

DAYS 1-5 (DECEMBER 23-27)

We sit on the cold side of a frontal boundary and will spend most of our time there during the next several days. High pressure brings fair but cold and breezy conditions today. A wave of low pressure moving along the frontal boundary to our south with trigger a period of snow Friday morning with minor accumulation, whitening up the ground for Christmas Eve. Another low pressure area will approach from the west by early Christmas Day (Saturday), bringing more unsettled weather to the region, but with warmer air moving in aloft, while many areas may start as snow, a combination of sleet, freezing rain, and rain will likely take over the precipitation. The good news is that this will not be a big storm system. However, it only takes a minor amount of frozen / freezing precipitation to cause travel hazards, so those with plans to drive or walk need to keep this in mind as we head through Christmas Day. The low responsible for this will intensify once offshore Sunday, but will be moving away quickly. This will make for a cold and gusty day, and an upper level disturbance may trigger a few snow showers. Behind all of this, high pressure should bring us a fair and chilly day Monday, but with clouds moving in as the next disturbance approaches (though timing and confidence on the strength and track of any system beyond just a few days out is low due to the ongoing near uselessness of the guidance).

TODAY: Sunshine dominates but high clouds increase later in the day. Highs 28-35. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, gusts 20-25 MPH.

TONIGHT: Clouding up. Light snow arriving west to east overnight. Lows 18-25. Wind diminishing to calm.

FRIDAY (CHRISTMAS EVE): Mostly cloudy with light snow ending from west to east during the morning – accumulation of a coating to 2 inches expected. Clearing afternoon. Highs 30-37. Wind calm then NW up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT (CHRISTMAS EVE): Clouding up. Snow arriving late evening or overnight, accumulating a coating to 1/2 inch, changing to sleet / ice / rain especially south of I-90 toward dawn. Lows 25-32 evening, rising slightly overnight. Wind N up to 10 MPH shifting to E overnight.

SATURDAY (CHRISTMAS DAY): Cloudy. Periods of snow/mix to ice/rain southern NH, mix to rain elsewhere, may tapering off but changing to a few snow flurries later in the day. Highs 35-42, mildest South Coast through midday, cooling later in the day. Wind E shifting to N increasing to 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Chance of mix/snow showers. Lows 26-33. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of snow showers. Highs 33-40. Wind N-NW 10-20 MPH and gusty.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Lows 17-24. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, diminishing.

MONDAY: Sunny to partly cloudy. Highs 33-40. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (DECEMBER 28 – JANUARY 1)

Two disturbance may bring episodes of precipitation during this period. Neither look like major events. Temperatures near to slightly below normal.

DAYS 11-15 (JANUARY 2-6)

Variable temperatures, averaging close to normal. One or two disturbances may bring precipitation threats. Guidance will be of no help at this time.

C-19 Chat Post – December 23 2021

DAYS 1-5 (DECEMBER 22-26)

The previously-prognosticated active pattern with no big storms is ongoing. Keep in mind that when I mentioned this pattern many days ago, I also told you that we could not provide details for timing and impacts of any systems that far in advance, but now in the 5-day period we can elaborate more. We start with a grazing by an offshore storm system today which will be moving rapidly northeastward. Though the center will be quite a distance to our southeast, its precipitation shield is large enough that it will produce a period of rain for several hours this morning. However, surface temperatures will be cold enough over the interior areas, especially west of the I-95 belt, that the rain will be freezing on untreated surfaces, making it slippery for travel. This will have some impact on the morning commute. The good news is that not only does the precipitation exit by midday, but the temperature climbs above freezing in all areas so that any ice will melt. We’ll also see clearing with dry air and increasing wind as the day goes on, which will dry off any surface so that we don’t see any re-freezing tonight. High pressure will bring dry and seasonably cold weather on Thursday. Once we get to Friday and Saturday, Christmas Eve and Christmas Day, we will see a couple of disturbances moving east southeastward across our area. This will be the broken up remnants of a low pressure and frontal system that will be blocked from cleanly passing through the northeastern US by high pressure in eastern Canada. With enough cold air around, we may see some festive snowflakes for at least parts of the region from these systems, with no significant impact expected for travel. Model guidance is not handling the second half of the weekend well, with different models showing different outcomes. Right now it looks like a lingering disturbance passing through on Sunday will produce some scattered snow showers, but some fine-tuning of this part of the forecast will still be needed.

TODAY: Cloudy morning with a period of rain except pockets of freezing rain west of I-95. Gradual clearing afternoon. Highs 39-44 except 45-50 South Shore through South Coast of MA. Wind NE 5-15 MPH morning, NW 10-20 MPH with higher gusts afternoon.

TONIGHT: Clear. Lows 22-29. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 35-42. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Increasing clouds. Chance of light snow overnight. Lows 23-30. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY (CHRISTMAS EVE): Cloudy with a chance of light snow morning. Variably cloudy with a chance of snow showers afternoon. Highs 33-40. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Chance of light snow late evening and overnight except rain/mix South Coast. Lows 28-35. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY (CHRISTMAS DAY): Cloudy. Periods of light snow/mix except mix/rain South Coast. Highs 35-42. Wind variable 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Chance of mix/snow showers. Lows 28-35. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of snow showers. Highs 35-42. Wind N-NW 10-20 MPH and gusty.

DAYS 6-10 (DECEMBER 27-31)

Temperatures variable averaging near normal. At least once disturbance brings a precipitation opportunity favoring mid period.

DAYS 11-15 (JANUARY 1-5)

Variable temperatures, averaging close to normal. One or two disturbances may bring precipitation threats.

C-19 Chat Post – December 22 2021