3:18AM

DAYS 1-5 (JANUARY 30-FEBRUARY 3)
The front and low pressure area that produced snow and rain overnight is on its way out now and today we await the arrival and passage of an arctic cold front, still expected to deliver snow showers and snow squalls to the region from west to east mid afternoon to early evening. These can drop visibility very quickly to near zero and also deposit a small accumulation of snow in short order, making for hazardous travel, so if you plan to be on the road later today, be aware of this possibility. This front will lead a shot of bitterly cold air into the region, along with wind, making the feel of this air mass rival that of January 21, even though the actual air temperatures will probably not be quite as cold as they were then. But I’m splitting hairs here – it will be very cold. Thankfully, we’re not actually getting into the full core of this cold air mass, as the heart of the air mass will peal northeastward and stay just north of our area as it heads back up into eastern Canada. So after this somewhat eventful end to the fairly uneventful month of January, what do the first few days of February have in store? The answer: Not much. It will be a quiet period of weather with temperature moderation taking place as high pressure moves overhead on Friday and then sinks to the south of the region during the course of the weekend. Although I cannot say with confidence the sky will be 100% clear on the morning of groundhog day, odds favor any small or large rodents that wander around outside will have a decent shot at seeing their shadows on Saturday morning, unless they rise before dawn! So there’s my groundhog day prediction! I will not venture to predict the score of the super bowl at this time – after all, it’s 5 days away and too early for numbers. 😉
Forecast details…
TODAY: Mostly cloudy early morning with snow/mix southeastern NH and northeastern MA and rain MA South Shore to Cape Cod diminishing. Sun/cloud mix mid morning on. Snow showers/squalls arriving from the west in central MA and southwestern NH by later in the afternoon. Highs 28-35. Wind W increasing to 15-25 MPH with higher gusts.
TONIGHT: Variably cloudy evening with snow showers/squalls likely. Briefly very low visibility in falling and blowing snow with accumulations of a coating to 1 1/2 inch possible. Clear overnight. Lows 3-10. Wind W 15-30 MPH with gusts 35-45 MPH. Wind chill falling well below 0 at times.
THURSDAY: Sunny. Highs 8-15. Wind W 15-25 MPH, higher gusts. Wind chill often below 0.
THURSDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 0-7. Wind W 5-15 MPH, higher gusts. Wind chill often below 0.
FRIDAY: Sunny. Highs 18-25. Wind W 5-15 MPH.
SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Lows in the 0s. Highs from the middle 20s to lower 30s.
SUNDAY: Partly sunny. Lows from the middle 10s to lower 20s. Highs from the middle 30s to lower 40s.

DAYS 6-10 (FEBRUARY 4-8)
Monday February 4 will be a milder day overall with a warm front producing scattered rain/ice then a cold front later with rain showers. Fair, breezy, but on the mild side Tuesday February 5. Current expecting timing brings a risk of rain/mix February 6 and 8 although neither look like big storms as the overall pattern will be fairly zonal with split jet streams.

DAYS 11-15 (FEBRUARY 9-13)
Fairly zonal pattern with disturbances producing possible unsettled weather about February 10 and again toward the end of the period. Temperatures near to above normal.

7:23AM

DAYS 1-5 (JANUARY 29-FEBRUARY 2)
Light onshore flow produces some light ocean effect snow showers in eastern MA and southeastern NH through midday today with no significant impact. Low pressure tracking north of the region tonight into Wednesday will drag a front across the region, and its precipitation will arrive as mainly snow then change to mainly rain (except far north and west where it stays snow or briefly mixes) then may end as snow on the back side briefly Wednesday morning as a wave of low pressure forms on the front and cuts across the region from southwest to northeast. An arctic cold front charges across the region west to east during Wednesday afternoon and early evening, producing snow showers and squalls that may briefly bring visibility to very low levels and may coat the ground quickly with snow, creating hazardous travel. Once these are by, the door is open to bitterly cold air which will be here but for a brief visit late Wednesday night through early Friday, rivaling the magnitude of the cold of January 21, but probably falling just shy, but with wind, you won’t notice much of a difference anyway. Even though Friday’s still cold, it will be one of those days when the 20s feel like the 40s in comparison to the day before. Expect dry weather and further temperature moderation for Groundhog Day with high pressure in control.
Detailed forecast…
TODAY: Cloudy. Light snow showers with dustings and minor coatings eastern MA and southeastern NH through midday. Snow arriving in central MA, southwestern NH, and eastern CT to western RI by dusk. Highs 30-37. Wind NE to E up to 10 MPH this morning, E to SE up to 15 MPH this afternoon.
TONIGHT: Cloudy. Snow to possible mix northwest, snow to rain most other areas, and may just start as rain South Shore of MA and South Coast of MA/RI, then a brief switch back to snow in most areas pre-dawn before ending. Snow accumulation patchy coatings far southeastern areas, coating to 1 inch I-95 belt, 1-3 inches central MA and interior southern NH. Temperatures rise slightly to 32-36 north and west, 37-41 south and east through late evening then fall back to 25-32 around dawn. Wind variable 5-15 MPH, mainly NE to N interior areas and SE to S in coastal areas, shifting to N-NW all areas up to 10-20 MPH with higher gusts toward dawn.
WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy with a lingering snow shower eastern areas early then a sun/cloud mix. Snow showers/squalls likely west to east mid to late afternoon. Highs 28-35. Wind NW to W 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy with a few snow squalls around early then clear. Lows 0-7. Wind NW 15-30 MPH. Wind chill falling below 0.
THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 8-15. Wind NW 15-30 MPH. Wind chill well below 0 at times.
FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. Lows in the 0s. Highs in the 20s.
SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Lows from the middle 0s to lower 10s. Highs from the upper 20s to middle 30s.

DAYS 6-10 (FEBRUARY 3-7)
Moderating temperatures with dry weather February 3 and a risk of rain showers later February 4. Dry and slightly cooler February 5. Unsettled weather possible with a risk of rain/mix/snow February 6-7 as we’ll be near a boundary between cold air north and mild air south.

DAYS 11-15 (FEBRUARY 8-12)
Unsettled weather departs early period and may return at the end of the period with variable temperatures. Not a great feel for how this period plays out at this time.

7:34AM

DAYS 1-5 (JANUARY 28-FEBRUARY 1)
High pressure brings seasonably cold weather to the region today. If you’re up early enough you may see a deck of clouds hiding the rising sun. These clouds are with an ocean storm that is missing the region. A couple hundred miles further west with that system and we’d be digging out from quite the snowstorm later today. But, not the case. The next winter weather event arrives later Tuesday as low pressure moves into the Great Lakes and a new low forms on its trailing front in the Middle Atlantic. This low will likely track right across southeastern New England Tuesday night, and this track will produce a snow-to-rain-to-snow scenario for many areas, but it may stay as snow/mix in the higher elevations of north central MA and southwestern NH throughout the event, where even though it won’t be a prolific producer, snow amounts there will be the highest. Before the arrival of this system, some eastern coastal areas of MA may see some ocean effect snow showers due to an onshore flow developing during the day Tuesday. As for the precipitation produced by the low, all areas end as snow at least briefly around dawn Wednesday as colder air rushes back in behind the departing low, and perhaps just enough to create some slippery travel for the morning commute in areas that didn’t really see any accumulation previously – something to watch for that morning. An arctic cold front will cross the region later Wednesday, bringing one of the better snow shower and snow squall chances we’ve had in a while. But squalls or not, the door will be open for a bitter blast of air, not quite to the degree of the one of January 21, but with more wind, making it feel just as cold if not a little colder when you factor that in. This will be for Thursday, the final day of the month. Triple-F Day, otherwise known as “Friday February First”, will open the new month on a cold note, but not as cold as the day before, as the core of the cold will have moved up in to the Canadian Maritimes by then. Earlier I had been thinking that we could see a sneaky snow event on that day, but at this time my feeling is that will be suppressed well to the south and pass through the Mid Atlantic region as a relatively minor system as high pressure builds in across New England.
Detailed forecast…
TODAY: High cloudiness hides the early morning sun then becoming mostly sunny. Highs 26-33. Wind N 5-15 MPH.
TONIGHT: Clouding up. Lows 15-22. Wind N
TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy. A few snow showers eastern MA coastal areas. Highs 30-37. Wind light NE to E.
TUESDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Snow to possible mix northwest, snow to rain most other areas, and may just start as rain South Shore of MA and South Coast of MA/RI, then a brief switch back to snow in most areas pre-dawn before ending. Snow accumulation patchy coatings far southeastern areas, coating to 1 inch I-95 belt, 1-3 inches central MA and interior southern NH. Temperatures rise slightly to 32-36 north and west, 37-41 south and east through late evening then fall back to 25-32 around dawn. Wind variable 5-15 MPH, mainly NE to N interior areas and SE to S in coastal areas, shifting to N-NW all areas up to 10-20 MPH with higher gusts toward dawn.
WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy with a lingering snow shower eastern areas early then a sun/cloud mix. Late-day snow showers/squalls possible. Highs 28-35. Wind NW to W 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.
THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Windy. Lows in the 0s. Highs in the 10s. Wind chill well below 0 at times.
FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. Lows in the 0s. Highs in the 20s.

DAYS 6-10 (FEBRUARY 2-6)
February 2-3 weekend looks dry, starting chilly ending milder as high pressure first over the region then sinks to the south and east. February 4 looks mild with possible rain showers. Windy, cooler, drier weather arrives February 5 as a cold front moves through and offshore. Will watch for a minor low pressure system with a threat of snow/mix by the end of the period.

DAYS 11-15 (FEBRUARY 7-11)
Seasonably chilly early period, milder following this with the next storm threat likely to be a Great Lakes system with mix/rain threat here, then a chilly end to the period. Confidence on timing low.

7:30AM

DAYS 1-5 (JANUARY 27-31)
The final 5 days of January will resent a variety of weather from mild to rain and snow to frigid cold, but will manage to avoid producing a major storm. However that does not mean we will be storm-free. After today’s nearly silent warm front / cold front combo goes through with little fanfare, and an ocean storm misses the area to the southeast later Monday, a front from the west will move in during Tuesday and a new low will form on it Tuesday night, pulling through the region and exiting Wednesday. This system will be responsible for the precipitation variety pack, probably starting as snow, going to rain, and ending as snow. Still have to fine-tune this one early in the week. What will follow it is a bitter blast of arctic air as a lobe of the Polar Vortex swings across the Northeast, although it appears the brunt of this will remain west and north of the region as the lobe starts to pull back into eastern Canada during its passage.
Detailed forecast…
TODAY: Variably cloudy. Slight risk of a rain or snow shower. Highs 38-45. Wind light variable early, becoming S 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.
TONIGHT: Variably cloudy. Lows 22-29. Wind shifting to W 5-15 MPH but a few higher gusts.
MONDAY: Partly cloudy. Highs 29-36. Wind N 5-15 MPH.
MONDAY NIGHT: Clouding up. Lows 15-22. Wind N 5-15 MPH.
TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Late-day snow/mix likely, changing to rain at night. Highs 32-39. Wind light variable becoming SE 5-15 MPH.
WEDNESDAY: Cloudy with rain/mix/snow potential to start, then sun/cloud mix with late-day snow shower possible. Temperatures start out upper 30s to lower 40s then fall rapidly by late-day.
THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Lows in the 0s. Highs in the 10s.

DAYS 6-10 (FEBRUARY 1-5)
Risk of snow or snow showers February 1 from a passing disturbance then dry and cold February 2-3 weekend. Milder weather follows.

DAYS 11-15 (FEBRUARY 6-10)
Leaning a little more toward a milder scenario based on the latest info, but still have to watch plenty of cold air not all that far to the north. May turn a little more unsettle if we are close to the boundary.

8:32AM

DAYS 1-5 (JANUARY 26-30)
As we move into the late days of January we eye a couple more storm systems, neither of which look like impressive precipitation producers, although one will be more productive than the other, and we also look to the arrival of an arctic air mass at the very end of this 5-day period. First, we start with a fair but chilly day today as a narrow area of high pressure dominates. This high will move off to the east Sunday, which will end up a milder way as a warm front moves through while its parent low moves down the St. Lawrence Valley. This front may produce a touch of light snow, favoring areas north and west of Boston, and then a few rain showers may occur in the warm sector which will be over the region during the afternoon. This system’s cold front will come through uneventfully late in the day and will return colder air to the region for Monday as an extension of high pressure in east central Canada noses into New England. While this is happening, a strong ocean storm will get going and travel up along the cold front as it continues to move away from New England later Monday, so that storm will safely remain over the water. During this time, another low will travel into the Great Lakes, bringing our next round of unsettled weather into the region Tuesday. This looks like another warm front / cold front combo, and with a little more moisture to work with more of the region should see a snow to mix to rain situation. The initial cold front coming through early Wednesday will be in the process of having a wave of low pressure develop on it, and this may occur right over southern New England so that there may be a burst of rain ending as mix or snow as colder air arrives. Will have to keep an eye on this as enough snow at the wrong time could cause issues with the Wednesday morning commute, but being several days away still it’s really impossible to know how this will work out, specifically. During the day Wednesday, a secondary cold front will come through, possibly with a snow shower, and definitely introducing some of the coldest air of the season-so-far with a temperature free-fall likely occurring by the end of the day. Will work on the timing and details.
Detailed forecast…
TODAY: Partly sunny. Highs 26-33. Wind W to SW up to 10 MPH.
TONIGHT: Variably cloudy. Lows 15-22. Wind light variable.
SUNDAY: Mostly cloudy morning with a couple periods of light snow possible, favoring northern MA and southern NH. Variably cloudy afternoon with a passing rain shower possible. Highs 38-45. Wind light variable early, becoming S 5-15 MPH.
SUNDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Lows 22-29. Wind shifting to W 5-15 MPH but a few higher gusts.
MONDAY: Partly cloudy. Highs 29-36. Wind N 5-15 MPH.
TUESDAY: Cloudy. Snow/mix/rain. Temperatures rise through the 30s.
WEDNESDAY: Cloudy with rain/mix/snow potential to start, then sun/cloud mix with late-day snow shower possible. Temperatures start out upper 30s to lower 40s then fall rapidly by late-day.

DAYS 6-10 (JANUARY 31-FEBRUARY 4)
Dry and very cold end to January. Will watch a low pressure trough coming along which may spawn a surface low and a chance of snow February 1 before drier and a more modified cold for the February 2-3 weekend. A warm-up possible to end the period.

DAYS 11-15 (FEBRUARY 5-9)
The weather is somewhat more indeterminate than is even average for a period 11 to 15 days away. Trying not to be swayed by inconsistent guidance and have seen signals for both moderation and a cold/dry pattern. Will split the difference for now and call for a few air mass changes but minor weather systems between them.

7:09AM

DAYS 1-5 (JANUARY 25-29)
Dry air has replaced the mild/wet/windy weather of yesterday. A secondary cold front may produce a snow shower this evening and will lead colder air into the region for the start of the weekend. Later in the weekend a passing disturbance may bring showers of snow and rain. With a trough in place in the Northeast another low pressure system will bring the chance of snow/mix/rain by Monday night into Tuesday. Detailed forecast…
TODAY: Variably cloudy. Isolated to scattered snow showers mid afternoon on. Highs 33-40. Wind W 5-15 MPH, higher gusts possible.
TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. Isolated snow showers evening. Lows 13-20. Wind NW 10-20 MPH and gusty early, diminishing overnight.
SATURDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 26-33. Wind W to SW up to 10 MPH.
SATURDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Lows 15-22. Wind light variable.
SUNDAY: Variably cloudy. Passing snow and rain showers possible. Highs 35-42. Wind S 5-15 MPH.
MONDAY: Mostly sunny day. Clouds arrive with a risk of snow late night. Lows in the 20s. Highs in the 30s.
TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Risk of rain/mix/snow. Temperatures generally in the 30s.

DAYS 6-10 (JANUARY 30-FEBRUARY 3)
A period of below to much below normal temperatures as a lobe of the polar vortex brings arctic air into the region during this period. No major storminess expected, just some light snow or snow showers events possible.

DAYS 11-15 (FEBRUARY 4-8)
My leaning is toward colder and drier than normal at this time with polar jet stream dominant and mean polar vortex lobe position in eastern Canada.

7:35AM

DAYS 1-5 (JANUARY 24-28)
Now comes that spring preview, ok maybe I’m getting a little ahead of myself on that one, but the thought of many that venture outside today, even during the rain, is how much it feels like a spring day. And it should, today’s high temperatures would be above average for some of our early spring days here in New England, but I would also be lying if I told you this was highly unusual for a winter’s day. This is just the variety that our weather prevents, like going from the single-digit arctic deep-freeze of just 3 days ago to this. There will be pros and cons to today’s weather, with the most obvious pro being the natural melting of much of the packed ice/snow that lies on our paths of mobility. Much of this, and all of it in many cases, will be vanished by day’s end. The cons are several, but the most obvious will be the areas of flooding that ensue due to heavier rainfall on frozen ground as well as not being unable to run off due to some still-clogged storm drains. But we will get through this, and after it all pushes offshore tonight, the temperatures will fall back toward seasonable levels, but this time we won’t see the flash freeze and tundra-like landscape. However we will have to be concerned with black ice and re-freezing of puddles and any standing water, because despite an increasing wind it won’t be enough to fully dry everything off. This will also be a concern for the couple days following today as it will be getting cold again so any ice will tend to linger. Along with this colder air, which gets reinforced this weekend, may come some snow showers, first of the isolated variety Friday evening as cold front goes by, and secondly from a disturbance crossing the region on Sunday. We’ll have our eyes on a third system approaching from the west Monday but before that gets here, our wind may turn onshore due to high pressure to the north and that may bring in enough moisture for some ocean-effect snow showers. But this is still a few days away so I’m not highly confident this will take place.
TODAY: Overcast. Numerous to widespread rain showers. Downpours and possible thunder west to east mid through late afternoon. Areas of fog.
Highs 48-55. Wind S 10-20 MPH with gusts 35-55 MPH, strongest coastal areas, shifting to W during the day from west to east.
TONIGHT: Cloudy evening with rain ending, maybe as brief mix some areas west of Boston. Clearing overnight. Areas of black ice possible. Lows 25-32. Wind NW 10-20 MPH and gusty.
FRIDAY: Mostly sunny to partly cloudy. Highs 32-39. Wind NW to W 10-20 MPH.
FRIDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Risk of a passing snow shower. Lows 13-20. Wind W to NW 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.
SATURDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 23-30. Wind W 5-15 MPH.
SUNDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of snow showers except mix/rain showers South Coast. Lows in the 10s. Highs in the 30s.
MONDAY: Mostly cloudy. Possible snow showers. Lows in the 20s. Highs in the 30s.

DAYS 6-10 (JANUARY 29-FEBRUARY 2)
Potential storm system moving through January 29 with the early leaning toward a light to moderate precipitation variety due to a storm track over or northwest of the region. Colder trend thereafter at which time we’ll have to watch additional storminess which is favored to pass mostly south of the region at this time.

DAYS 11-15 (FEBRUARY 3-7)
A broad trough will dominate and a surface low may cut through the Great Lakes around mid period. Our weather here would be dry/cold to start, briefly mild/wet, then dry/cold to finish the period. Forecast not high confidence.

7:31AM

DAYS 1-5 (JANUARY 23-27)
High pressure offshore and a slow-moving cold front approaching from the west today brings milder but mainly cloudy weather today. Wet weather arrives west to east during this evening as the front draws near, and a wave of low pressure forming on it and moving up along it will enhance the wet weather through most of Thursday. We’ll have to watch for a concentrated line of downpours and gusty winds associated with this system as it has been strongly indicated by short-range guidance. Rough idea on timing of this feature, if it occurs, would be late morning to mid afternoon from west to east across the region. By Thursday evening, the wet weather will come to an end as the cold front starts to push offshore after the low pressure wave goes by. This will bring drier and seasonably colder weather in for Friday. During this warm-up, we should be able to get rid of a fair amount of our tundra-like snow/ice left on the ground by the Sunday storm and frozen in place by the arctic air that followed it. Speaking of arctic air, we’ll get a taste of that, but to a lesser degree, by Saturday. And then by Sunday a disturbance should throw some snow showers into the mix. This doesn’t look like an important storm at this point.
Forecast details…
TODAY: Mostly cloudy. Rain showers arriving western areas later in the day, with patchy freezing rain possible interior areas to start. Highs 38-45. Wind S to SW 5-15 MPH with higher gusts.
TONIGHT: Cloudy with rain showers likely evening becoming a steady rain overnight. Areas of fog. Temperatures steady 38-45. Wind SW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts possible especially South Coast.
THURSDAY: Overcast. Rain likely. One or two period of heavy rain possible. Areas of fog. Highs 48-55. Wind S 10-20 MPH with gusts 35-55 MPH, strongest coastal areas, shifting to W during the day from west to east.
THURSDAY NIGHT: Cloudy evening with rain ending, maybe as brief mix some areas west of Boston. Clearing overnight. Areas of black ice possible. Lows 25-32. Wind NW 10-20 MPH and gusty.
FRIDAY: Mostly sunny to partly cloudy. Risk of a snow shower evening. Breezy. Highs 32-39. Wind NW to W 10-20 MPH.
SATURDAY: Partly sunny. Windy. Lows in the 10s. Highs in the 20s.
SUNDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of snow showers. Lows in the 10s. Highs from the middle 20s to lower 30s.

DAYS 6-10 (JANUARY 28-FEBRUARY 1)
A potential storm during the January 28-29 period but not sure if all the ingredients will come together for a significant event as it is too far away to be sure. Leaning toward dry/cold for the end of January / beginning of February but may have to watch additional storminess to the south and east.

DAYS 11-15 (FEBRUARY 2-6)
Somewhat active pattern so may have to watch 1 or 2 weather systems in this time period and with the temperatures still trying to average below normal that would leave the door open for snow chances (don’t interpret this as “here come the blizzards!” because it’s not really what I mean). Been monitoring for a potential pattern retrogression and moderation, but it appears that would attempt to take place after this time period.

7:35AM

DAYS 1-5 (JANUARY 22-26)
Arctic high pressure moves overhead today, which will still be cold and breezy, but not nearly as cold as yesterday was. High pressure then move offshore and opens the door for a midweek warm-up, but the trade-off will be wet weather arriving by late Wednesday through Thursday. Colder/drier air returns by Friday, but only seasonable cold as the slow-moving front that creates the midweek wet spell moves offshore. But a second cold front will deliver colder air by the start of the weekend.
Forecast details…
TODAY: Sunshine, filtered late by high clouds. Highs 21-28. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, gusts 20-25 MPH. Wind chill often below 20.
TONIGHT: Clouding over. Lows 11-18 evening, rising back to the 20s overnight. Wind light variable early, becoming light S to SW.
WEDNESDAY: Cloudy. Rain showers arriving west to east during the afternoon, with patchy freezing rain possible interior areas to start. Areas of fog mid to late afternoon. Highs 38-45. Wind S to SW 5-15 MPH with higher gusts.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Cloudy with rain showers likely evening becoming a steady rain overnight. Areas of fog. Temperatures steady 38-45. Wind SW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts possible especially South Coast.
THURSDAY: Overcast. Rain likely. Areas of fog. Highs 45-52. Wind S 10-20 MPH with higher gusts, shifting to W during the day from west to east.
FRIDAY: Mostly sunny to partly cloudy. Risk of a snow shower evening. Breezy. Lows in the 20s. Highs in the 30s.
SATURDAY: Partly sunny. Chance of snow showers. Windy. Lows in the 10s. Highs in the 20s.

DAYS 6-10 (JANUARY 27-31)
Will watch the January 27-29 period for potential storminess which would occur while it was cold enough for snow/mix. Dry, cold end to month.

DAYS 11-15 (FEBRUARY 1-5)
Starts out cold/dry, some unsettled weather follows as it tries to moderate. This forecast is purposely vague and low confidence because of the uncertainty of the large scale pattern. May see retrogression of trough toward the western US but unsure how quickly this might take place.

7:23AM

DAYS 1-5 (JANUARY 21-25)
I bet many of you are tired from dealing with winter weather and perhaps watching an exciting football game, or perhaps some of you, like me are battling with or recovering from a winter cold, so today’s blog update will be short and to-the-point. Kind of taking it easy. First, it’s a bitterly cold northwesterly air flow today with arctic air dominating, and other than a few ocean-effect flurries on the outer part of Cape Cod we’ll see dry weather, then we moderate ever so slightly as high pressure moves overhead Tuesday. This high moves offshore by Wednesday and a cold front approaches, and it warms significantly that the next round of precipitation falls as rain showers, however it may be cold enough at ground level for some freezing rain at the start from this, so something to keep an eye on. This front will get hung up in its attempt to get offshore Thursday and with low pressure riding up along it, it means more precipitation, but this time it will be mild enough for a rain event. However as it pulls away, there may be just enough cold air to end it as a mix or brief snow at night, if the timing is correct. On Friday we’re back to chilly and dry weather for the most part, but a disturbance approaching later in the day and evening may trigger some snow showers.
Forecast details…
TODAY (MLK JR DAY): Partly sunny. A few snow flurries outer Cape Cod. Highs 5-12. Wind NW 15-25 MPH, higher gusts. Wind chill -5 to -15 at times.
TONIGHT: Clearing. Lows -2 to +5. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts. Wind chill -8 to -15 at times.
TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 22-29. Wind NW 5-15 MPH becoming light variable during the afternoon.
TUESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 11-18 evening, then slowly rising overnight. Wind light variable evening, light S overnight.
WEDNESDAY: Partly sunny early, then mostly cloudy. Rain showers arriving west to east but may fall as freezing rain at first. Highs 38-45. Wind S to SW increasing to 10-20 MPH.
THURSDAY: Cloudy. Rain, may end as mix/snow late. Temperatures fall from the 40s to the 30s.
FRIDAY: Partly cloudy. Risk of snow showers late-day and evening. Lows in the 20s. Highs in the 30s.

DAYS 6-10 (JANUARY 26-30)
Colder air will dominate much of this period. We’ll have to watch the January 27-29 period for potential storminess, but the very early idea is that it may be too far south and east to have a significant impact and we’d just see more energy from the polar jet stream with snow showers. Low confidence. Many days to iron it out. Fair weather later in the period.

DAYS 11-15 (JANUARY 31 – FEBRUARY 4)
Large scale pattern retrogression (westward movement) may occur with low pressure scooting back to the west and a flat ridge in the US Southeast. This would allow some milder weather and a westerly flow with minor weather systems passing through the region. Again a low confidence forecast for this period.

8:55AM

DAYS 1-5 (JANUARY 18-21)
We saw the snow behave about as expected, and based on the later-day update, the changeover lines as well. The little details are still revealing themselves as the storm is progressing, and one thing to watch has been a boundary between milder and very cold air that slid down the Maine and NH Coasts into northeastern MA overnight, putting places like Lawrence into the middle and upper teens while Boston was reaching the middle 30s. This boundary, as of the writing of this blog, is slowly coming down the coast of MA now and we will have to see if it reaches the city of Boston before the morning is over. While we have a variety of precipitation from sleet and freezing rain over many areas to just plain rain where it’s mild enough, all of this will continue for some time, with areas seeing freezing rain the longest obviously having the most direct impact. But later, as precipitation begins to taper off, possibly as snow in some areas, the big story will become the temperature drop in areas that were in the milder air. Anything wet or any slush/snow not removed will freeze solid in very rapid fashion by the end of the day today. That will be the largest threat leftover with this event, other than the ongoing freezing rain. Still looking for a clearing trend tonight, but the definite is the bitter cold and strong wind, so if you do plan to try viewing the total lunar eclipse, you may want to choose a window to look out of rather than going outside. I think there will be enough clear sky to see it. Not forgetting coastal flooding, which will be an issue from mid morning to midday around the late morning high tide, which is astronomically quite high anyway and being added to by some moderately strong wind along the coast. Fairly widespread minor flooding is expected with pockets of moderate flooding. By tonight, a north northwest wind will mean minor flooding should be confined to north-facing shores of Cape Cod Bay with the late evening high tide. It will be cold enough by then that any splash over is likely to freeze on anything it makes contact with. So once this is over, we won’t have anything to talk about right? I mean everybody else may be talking about blizzards on models that won’t verify, but here at WHW we’ll talk about the upcoming few days, and you might wanna listen, because Monday is going to be one cold day, with lots of wind. Straight shot of Arctic air and wind chill to emphasize it. But at least it will be dry! There may be no more ice falling from the sky, but there will be plenty of ice left on the ground, so be careful if you will be out there. As we approach midweek, the cold eases a bit Tuesday, and much more so Wednesday and Thursday, which will turn somewhat unsettled as a front arrives and then hangs around. The details of this still have to be figured out, so the forecast below will be fairly generic to reflect the unknowns a few days out.
Forecast details…
TODAY: Overcast with sleet, freezing rain, rain to the southeast, some snow southwestern NH, then all precipitation tapering off west to east late in the day. Thunder is possible RI and southeastern MA mid to late morning. Large temperature contrast ranging from around 15 northern MA and southern to NH to the 40s South Coast, but temperatures falling below 10 north and all the way to the 10s south by the end of the day. Wind variable 15-25 MPH South Coast, becoming N with higher gusts late-day, and elsewhere wind E to N 5-15 MPH increasing to 15-25 MPH late day. Higher wind gusts all areas late in the day. Wind chill falling below 0 by end of day.
TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 0-7. Wind N to NW 15-30 MPH. Wind chill frequently -5 to -10 and occasional -10 to -20.
MONDAY (MLK JR DAY): Sun and passing clouds. Highs 8-15. Wind NW 15-30 MPH. Wind chill frequently -5 to -15.
MONDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 0-7. Wind NW 15-25 MPH, diminishing gradually. Wind chill below -10 at times.
TUESDAY: Sunny. Highs 21-28. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, a few higher gusts.
WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of snow/mix showers transitioning to rain showers. Temperatures rise from the 20s to the 40s.
THURSDAY: Cloudy. Chance of rain, may end as mix/snow late. Temperatures fall from the 40s to the 30s.

DAYS 6-10 (JANUARY 25-29)
Seasonably chilly January 25, dry during day but snow showers at night as much colder air arrives for the January 26-27 weekend with a couple periods of snow showers possible. Slight moderation, still cold, and mostly dry end of period.

DAYS 11-15 (JANUARY 30-FEBRUARY 3)
Look for a colder than average period of weather, dominated by a polar jet stream and minor systems with snow shower threats.

6:57AM

DAYS 1-5 (JANUARY 18-21)
As it turns out, and I almost did this, I should have left my first call numbers essentially alone, because this update will return to them generally, with a tweak or two, and it would not surprise me to be in the lower end of the ranges based on sleet indeed being dominant in the frozen precipitation region of the storm. The freezing rain / rain line may end up a touch further northwest than previously indicated, but probably not by all that much. Most of the other aspects of the storm remain the same in terms of the short-term forecast that you saw on yesterday’s update, including the brutal cold after the storm departs and the chance at seeing at least some of the total lunar eclipse late Sunday night to very early Monday morning. The next round of unsettled weather is likely to be wet rather than white as we’ll get high pressure to move offshore and provide the region with a southerly flow as low pressure heads up the St. Lawrence Valley during Wednesday. This system may be moving quickly enough that the first half of the day is the most unsettled.
Forecast details…
TODAY: Sunshine followed by increasing cloudiness. A few snow showers possible MA East Coast this afternoon. Highs 22-29. Wind N up to 10 MPH.
TONIGHT: Overcast. A few snow showers possible MA East Coast early. Snow arriving west to east, becoming heavy at times by late evening into overnight, with a changeover line progressing northward toward dawn that results in sleet in a large area except freezing rain to the south except some plain rain along the immediate shoreline and over Cape Cod. Lows 18-25 but temperatures rise slowly especially near the South Coast overnight. Wind E to NE increasing to 10-20 MPH, higher gusts especially coast.
SUNDAY: Overcast with snow/sleet southern NH and north central MA, rain south of a Plymouth MA to Providence RI line, with freezing rain and sleet in between these areas. Precipitation tapering off from west to east by late-day with breaking clouds. Total snow/sleet accumulation expected ranging from up to 1 inch Nantucket to 1-2 inches MV and Cape Cod and South Coast, 2-4 inches South Shore and along the Mass Pike and into Boston, 4-8 inches north central and northeastern MA and southeastern NH, 8-12 inches hills of north central MA and southwestern NH. Highs 22-29 northern areas, 30-37 southern areas with mildest Cape Cod and Islands, occurring by late morning, then temperatures falling in all areas during the afternoon. Wind NE 15-25 MPH with higher gusts, especially coast, during the morning, then N to NW 15-35 MPH afternoon.
SUNDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Lows 0-7. Wind N to NW 15-30 MPH. Wind chill frequently -5 to -10 and occasional -10 to -20.
MONDAY (MLK JR DAY): Sun and passing clouds. Highs 8-15. Wind NW 15-30 MPH. Wind chill frequently -5 to -15.
TUESDAY: Sunshine and high clouds. Lows in the 0s. Highs in the 20s daytime but rising further into the 30s at night.
WEDNESDAY: Cloudy with rain showers morning. Partly sunny afternoon. Temperatures rise to the 40s morning then fall to the 30s evening.

DAYS 6-10 (JANUARY 24-28)
With a front not far offshore we’ll watch for a low pressure area that comes up along it January 24 to early January 25. It remains to be seen what the track of that system is so any range of possibilities exists and I have no business trying to make a solid guess, based on ongoing model performances. It should be colder by mid to late period and we may deal with a snow threat around the January 26-27 weekend, but this can’t be said with a ton of confidence either.

DAYS 11-15 (JANUARY 29-FEBRUARY 2)
A lobe of the Polar Vortex will bring below to much below normal temperatures and small systems rounding its base can bring occasional episodes of light snow or snow showers during this period. And to follow the trend, this is also low confidence.

7:29AM

DAYS 1-5 (JANUARY 18-22)
The first of 2 storm systems, and by far the weaker of the 2, has let us off easy as much of the snow associated with it has dried up, and only patchy inconsequential snow will be around this morning with many places seeing nothing at all. However it is still a passing low and we do get a brief shot of milder air today before colder air returns tonight and Saturday and sets the stage for the clearly stronger second storm coming through the region from Saturday evening to Sunday evening, about a 24-hour event. This will be a cold storm in that cold air will dominate at the surface. The question remains how much warm air gets in aloft and as a result where do the lines between snow, sleet, and freezing rain set up. While our fairly reliable European model came in a little warmer looking which would mean more sleet further north, and our somewhat reliable NAM model came in colder meaning less sleet pushing as far north, as far as guidance influence goes I am not going to change anything from yesterday’s forecast. Experience leads me to want to lean slightly to the colder solution as yesterday’s preliminary numbers were kind of a “split the difference” first guess. So the adjustment made today will be very minor to my snow/sleet accumulation numbers, and I will tweak further on the next update, if necessary, as it will be done well before the precipitation arrives. Another aspect of this storm I did not mention previously but need to now is that we will see minor to moderate coastal flooding during the late morning / midday high tide Sunday, which is astronomically high at this time. A more offshore wind will lessen the flooding issue for the late night high tide with the exception of north-facing shores in Cape Cod Bay which will see some minor to moderate flooding at that time. What hasn’t changed at all is the brutal cold that follows the storm Sunday night and MLK Jr Day on Monday, which will ease up slightly Tuesday as high pressure moves overhead. The other big question, for sky watchers, becomes whether or not we will see at least some partial clearing Sunday night, allowing us to get at least some view of a total lunar eclipse that starts later in the 9PM hour and peaks shortly after midnight. There is a fair chance that we may get to see at least some of the event.
Forecast details…
TODAY: Mostly cloudy to partly sunny. Patchy light snow/mix early to mid morning. Highs 33-40. Wind S up to 10 MPH.
TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 15-22. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.
SATURDAY: Sunshine followed by increasing cloudiness. Highs 22-29. Wind N up to 10 MPH.
SATURDAY NIGHT: Overcast with snow arriving west to east, becoming heavy at times by late evening and overnight, mixing with or turning to sleet and freezing rain South Coast and slowly advancing northward in the pre-dawn. Lows 18-25 but temperatures rise slowly especially near the South Coast overnight. Wind E to NE increasing to 10-20 MPH, higher gusts especially coast.
SUNDAY: Overcast with mostly snow that may mix with sleet southern NH and northern MA, snow mixing with or turning to sleet Boston to Worcester corridor, and sleet and freezing rain to the south with plain rain possible immediate South Coast and especially Cape Cod and the Islands. Precipitation tapering off from west to east by late-day with breaking clouds. Total snow/sleet accumulation expected ranging from up to 1 inch Nantucket to 1-3 inches MV and Cape Cod, 3-6 inches South Coast to Plymouth MA, 6-10 inches Providence RI and eastern CT area up through Boston area and I-95 belt, 10-16 inches I-495 belt into central MA northward into southern NH. Highs 22-29 northern areas, 30-37 southern areas with mildest Cape Cod and Islands, occurring by late morning, then temperatures falling in all areas during the afternoon. Wind NE 15-25 MPH with higher gusts, especially coast, during the morning, then N to NW 15-35 MPH afternoon.
MONDAY (MLK JR DAY): Sun and passing clouds. Windy. Lows from the lower to middle 0s. Highs from the upper 0s to middle 10s.
TUESDAY: Sunshine and high clouds. Lows in the 0s. Highs in the 20s.

DAYS 6-10 (JANUARY 23-27)
High pressure moves offshore and a front moves through from west to east January 23 with rain/snow showers with milder air in the region. Colder air returns for the remainder of the period with mainly dry weather January 24-25 as low pressure passes offshore, then another low pressure area may bring some snow and snow showers during the January 26-27 weekend.

DAYS 11-15 (JANUARY 28-FEBRUARY 1)
A lobe of the Polar Vortex will bring below to much below normal temperatures and small systems rounding its base can bring occasional episodes of light snow or snow showers during this period.

2:01AM

DAYS 1-5 (JANUARY 17-21)
Here is a breakdown of the weather I expect to occur during the next 5 days – classic New England winter weather at its “finest”…
We begin with a cold but day today as high pressure moves in from Canada. This high will not hang around and will make way for a minor low pressure system moving across New England Friday, passing north of southern New England. Its warm front will produce a period of snow (mix to rain to the south) with minor accumulation as it passes through during Friday morning. Its cold front will come through later in the day fairly uneventful, but it will open the door for cold air again which will settle in during Friday night and Saturday. And then we turn our attention to the well-advertised bigger storm for Sunday. It will actually move in during Saturday night, as snow spread west to east during the evening hours. The low pressure center which will be coming out of the Ohio Valley is likely to “jump the mountains” and redevelop near the Delmarva. The very cold high pressure system in eastern Canada will likely cause the center of this system to pass just south of New England. It won’t be a powerful low, but the combination of it and the high to the north, warm air to the south feeding the system and arctic cold banked over New England are the ingredients for a significant winter weather event. This low will also be fairly elongated and not concentrated in one compact powerful center. So how does it impact southeastern New England? This is how I think it goes. Heaviest of the snowfall for the entire region will be Saturday night, in the late-night hours or pre-dawn hours of Sunday, however warmer air working in aloft and more marginal surface temperatures along the South Coast will turn the snow to a period of sleet then rain there fairly quickly, so accumulations are expected to be most minimal there. We are very likely to see the warm air aloft work its way northward into a good portion of southern New England during the course of the precipitation event, which continues through most of the day Sunday. All the while, the cold air will be very stubborn near the ground. As you know, the temperatures profile in the atmosphere will determine what falls in any given location. My best guess at this point is that we see mostly snow with possible sleet mix across southern NH to the I-495 belt of MA down to about the Mass Pike, and in these areas my first guess for snowfall is 8-14 inches. In a fairly wide band which includes the I-95 belt from northeastern MA to the Mass Pike and the city of Boston the snow will be followed by sleet and a first guess for this band of real estate is 4-8 inches of snow topped with sleet. To the south, in the Plymouth MA to Providence RI and southeastern CT corridor, I’d expect a turn to rain, however a narrow strip of freezing rain would be possible near the sleet/rain line depending on surface temperatures (something to watch closely) but these areas would see 2-4 inches of snow before a changeover, and a coating to 2 inch snow amount early in the storm would occur closer to the South Coast including much of Cape Cod. PLEASE keep in mind that I am first guessing these amounts 3 days before the storm and these are not solid final numbers just yet. There is a lot of wiggle room still at this point, as just mere miles difference in storm track / temperature profile impacts these boundaries. Regardless of the details of the storm, it will be ready to pull the cold air right back in as it starts to move away Sunday evening, so everybody ends as snow tapering to snow showers. The big question: Will the clouds break in time for at least a little bit of view of the total lunar eclipse that takes place from Sunday evening to the early hours of Monday morning? Time will tell. What is certain is that bitterly cold arctic air will be in place, along with plenty of wind, for the MLK Jr birthday observance on Monday.
Forecast details…
TODAY: Sunshine and high clouds. Highs 23-30. Wind N 5-15 MPH, gusts 20-25 MPH.
TONIGHT: Thickening overcast. Areas of snow arrive overnight. Lows 13-20. Wind light variable.
FRIDAY: Cloudy morning with areas of snow, accumulating a coating to 1 inch but some 2 inch amounts possible higher elevations of central MA and southern NH, but changing to mix/rain South Coast, ending midday. Mostly cloudy to partly sunny afternoon. Highs 33-40. Wind S up to 10 MPH.
FRIDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 15-22. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.
SATURDAY: Partly sunny day. Cloudy with snow arriving west to east at night. Highs 22-29. Wind N up to 10 MPH.
SUNDAY: Significant storm of snow/sleet/ice/rain. Temperatures range from 20s north and west to near 40 Cape Cod during the day, falling rapidly at night.
MONDAY (MLK JR DAY): Sun and passing clouds. Windy. Lows from the lower to middle 0s. Highs from the upper 0s to middle 10s.

DAYS 6-10 (JANUARY 22-26)
Not highly confident on this forecast but the idea would be for dry/cold January 22, milder with rain/snow showers January 23, dry/colder January 24, and another low pressure system potentially impacting the region later in the period with a precipitation threat.

DAYS 11-15 (JANUARY 27-31)
Will be monitoring for a lobe of Polar Vortex and where it ends up. Further east and we’re colder and drier with a few light snow threats. Further west, not quite as cold but possibly stormier. Leaning toward the colder/drier scenario at this time. Will re-evalulate this period in future updates.

7:36AM

DAYS 1-5 (JANUARY 16-20)
And now both systems are in the 5-day range, but for today’s update I’ll put some numbers to event number 1 and stay vague on event number 2 because we may not be through seeing guidance adjustment. If ever the 3-day-rule for guidance and 2-day rule for hard numbers applied, this will be the time. First, a slightly milder day today but becoming breezy as a cold front approaches. This front may bring a shower of mixed rain and snow, or snow, to a few locations this evening but it will be largely a dry passage, returning cold air to the region for Thursday. A minor low pressure system is still set to pass through on Friday with some snow/mix north, mix/rain south (see below for numbers). A break Saturday as cold air returns yet again and sets the stage for a larger winter storm that arrives in the pre-dawn hours of Sunday and lasts much of the day. What remains uncertain is precipitation type, snow/ice/rain areas, and how quickly it moves out. Will try to have a much more solid idea on this for tomorrow’s update.
TODAY: Partly cloudy. Highs 35-42. Wind W 5-15 MPH, higher gusts late in the day.
TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. A passing mix rain/snow or snow shower possible early. Lows 15-22. Wind SW 10-20 MPH shifting to NW with higher gusts.
THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 22-29. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, diminishing during the day.
THURSDAY NIGHT: Clouding over. Risk of mix south, snow north before dawn. Temperatures rise to upper 20s north, lower 30s south. Wind light variable.
FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy. Mix to rain South Coast, snow ending as mix/rain elsewhere from west to east. Snow accumulation of less than 1 inch South Coast, coating to 2 inches elsewhere with 2 inch amounts most likely southern NH and central MA. Highs 33-40. Wind light variable becoming W 5-15 MPH later in the day.
SATURDAY: Partly sunny. Lows in the 10s. Highs from the upper 20s to lower 30s.
SUNDAY: Overcast with snow/ice/rain likely. Lows in the 20s. Highs from the upper 20s to lower 40s north to south.

DAYS 6-10 (JANUARY 21-25)
Dry, windy, very cold MLK Jr Day Monday January 21. Gradual temperature moderation through mid period with the next event more likely to be mix to rain but far out there so will keep an eye on it. Drier weather returns at the end of the period.

DAYS 11-15 (JANUARY 26-30)
Colder as a broad trough overtakes the weather with a couple clipper type systems bringing snow threats, based on current pattern trends. Still not highly confident about the pattern evolution yet.