12:08AM

Yes, it is happening, in stages. Instead of re-explaining it, read the post by Matt Noyes which some bloggers have linked in recent updates.

For the more immediate future… Low pressure is tracking north northeastward, west of New England, sending a band of moderate to heavy rain into an unseasonably warm and humid late November air mass as the final day of the month begins. Dry air behind a cold front will put an end to the rain by dawn in most of eastern MA. It will not turn that cool behind the initial front. A secondary front or trough will pass by tonight from the west, with some clouds, and introduce slightly colder air for the first few days of December. This will be reinforced by another cold front passing by on Friday evening. This front will have little weather with it, just a few clouds.

We do warm up by Sunday and Monday ahead of the next storm system, but this time not to the levels we just saw. Another shot of chilly air arrives toward the middle of next week and this one may contain some snowflakes, though no big storm is seen at this time.

Boston Area Forecast…

OVERNIGHT: Showers, with an area of moderate to heavy rain and possible thunder moving through from west to east especially between 1:30AM & dawn. Mild and humid. Low 55-60. Wind S 10-15 MPH gusting to 20 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Clouds and showers may linger at the coast and over eastern Essex County early in the morning otherwise sun becoming dominant with just some passing clouds. Temperature holding 55-60 much of the day. Wind SW 10-20 MPH gusting to 30 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy early, then clearing. Low 30-35. Wind W 10-20 MPH.

THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. High 42-47. Wind W 10-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 26. High 48.

SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 26. High 42.

SUNDAY: Partly sunny. Low 33. High 55.

MONDAY: Chance of rain showers. Low 39. High 51.

TUESDAY: Chance of rain or snow showers. Low 35. High 42.

4:30PM

We continue with our mild spell for the last couple days of November, with some cooling as we get into December. No extreme cold is seen just yet.

I apologize for the lack of update yesterday and the short discussion today. A more comprehensive discussion should be posted later tonight.

In the mean time, updated Boston area forecast follows…

TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Low 44-49. Wind SE 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy. High 61-66. Wind S 10-20 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Rain showers likely. Low 50-55. Wind S 10-20 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Cloudy with showers through mid morning then becoming partly sunny. High 55-60. Wind SW 10-20 MPH.

THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 40. High 52.

FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 30. High 50.

SATURDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 25. High 45.

SUNDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 25. High 47.

8:06AM

Boston Area Forecast…

TODAY: Dense fog melting away to sunshine during the morning. Sun/clouds afternoon. High 55-60. Wind SE under 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Variably cloudy. Patchy fog. Low 45-50. Wind S under 10  MPH.

MONDAY: Partly sunny. High 60-65. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Rain at night. Low 47. High 58.

WEDNESDAY: Rain early. Breaking clouds. Low 41. High 49.

THURSDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 34. High 49.

FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 28. High 46.

SATURDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 23. High 41.

12:24PM

Some of you may have greeted Black Friday at midnight. But whether you were out there in the overnight chill and frost, or are out there today, or not out there at all, it’s a great weather day today. After a cold & frosty start, it’s turned milder with plenty of sun.

There are a couple of tweaks to the previous forecast, with one being that today’s high temperature will not be as high as I had forecast, and tomorrow’s will be a little higher than in the previous update. Tomorrow will be a great day to put up outside decorations, and I will be doing just that…

By Sunday, moisture will begin to increase in the form of more clouds, and temperatures will be down a little but though it will still be a mild day.

A frontal system and low pressure area will bring unsettled weather for the first few days of next week, which are also the last few days of November.

Looking a bit further ahead, there are signs of more frequent visits of colder air as December gets underway.

Boston Area Forecast Update…

THIS AFTERNOON: Mostly sunny. High 55-60. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Low ranging from upper 20s inland valleys to near 40 coast. Wind SW under 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Partly cloudy. High 60-65. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Low 43-48. Wind S up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Mostly cloudy. High 53-58. Wind SE 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY: Cloudy. Periods of rain. Low 44. High 56.

TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Showers likely. Low 42. High 52.

WEDNESDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of showers. Low 35. High 48.

8:06PM

A big holiday weekend is upon us. The Wednesday storm is now exiting, having produced heavy rain in southern New England which ended as mixed rain/snow in some areas. Heavier snow was confined to the mountains of northern New England with some ski areas picking up decent snow and meaning that some people will be able to ski this weekend. With the storm now history, the only issue left behind is a slight risk of coastal flooding at the time of high tides through early Thursday, as tides are astronomically very high. Major flooding will not occur.

As far as the actual weather goes, we have clear sailing for the next few days, with a chilly Thanksgiving Day, a big warm-up for Black Friday, a slight cool-down over the weekend, and some clouds returning at the end of the weekend ahead of unsettled weather, which will be due early next week.

The forecast details for the Boston area…

TONIGHT: Clearing. Low 23-28 inland, 29-34 Boston and coast. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY – THANKSGIVING: Sunny. High school football game-time temperature starting out in the lower 30s ending 35-40. Afternoon high 43-48. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Clear. Low ranging from 20-25 inland valleys to 30-35 along the coast and in Boston. Wind W under 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Sunny. High 60-65. Wind W 10-15 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Clear. Low 40-45. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY: Partly cloudy. High 55-60. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Low 40-45. Wind NE 5-10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Mostly cloudy. High 50-55. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY: Chance of rain. Low 41. High 50.

TUESDAY: Chance of rain. Low 41. High 50.

WEDNESDAY: Chance of showers. Low 40. High 53.

To every one of you: Have a safe and happy Thanksgiving! And thanks for reading. 🙂

11:30PM

Low pressure will cut across southern New England like an express train Wednesday morning and early afternoon then race away to the northeast during Wednesday night. This will be a short-duration but moderate to high impact system for the region. Heavy rain and gusty winds will impact the morning commute in the Boston area. This time, heavy snow will be confined mainly to the mountains of northern New England. By afternoon, the heaviest precipitation will be on the way out, with most rain done in southern New England.

By Thanksgiving morning, the storm will be long gone, and we will enjoy a bright but chilly holiday.

High pressure will build off the East Coast once again, with a fair and milder period of weather for the remainder of the Thanksgiving weekend.

By early next week, low pressure will approach from the southwest. There are some questions on timing of this system, but except the potential for unsettled weather at any point during the last 3 days of November.

Detailed forecast for the Boston area…

OVERNIGHT: Overcast. Rain becoming moderate to heavy toward dawn. Low around 40. Wind E increasing to 10-20 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Overcast. Moderate to heavy rain early morning (through around 8AM), a period of lighter rain mid morning, then embedded heavier showers west to east late morning (10AM to just before noon). Slight chance of light rain during the afternoon hours. High around 45. Wind N 10-20 MPH gusting around 30 MPH, strongest early in the day.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Low 25-30 inland, 31-36 coast. Wind NW 10-20 MPH.

THURSDAY – THANKSGIVING: Mostly sunny. Temperature rising through the 30s during the high school football games, into the 40s during local travel and dinnertime, highest about 49 before coasting back toward 40 as the sun sinks in the SW sky late day. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Clear. Heavy frost forming. Low from near 25 inland valleys to 35 coast. Wind near calm.

FRIDAY: Sunny. High 60-65. Wind WSW increasing to 10-20 MPH.

SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 44. High 59.

SUNDAY: Partly sunny. Low 41. High 54.

MONDAY: Chance of rain. Low 42. High 51.

TUESDAY: Chance of rain. Low 40. High 50.

WEDNESDAY: Chance of showers. Low 44. High 54.

12:00AM

No changes, other than a little more sun for today before clouds increase.

No need to rewrite the previous discussion, so here’s just an updated forecast!

TODAY: Sunshine becoming filtered to faded as high clouds increase. High 45-50. Wind SE 10-15 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Rain developing before midnight from southwest to northeast. Low 40-45. Wind SE 10-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Overcast. Rain through midday, ending southwest to northeast. High 53-58. Wind SE 5-15 MPH shifting to SW by early afternoon and N by late day.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Low 33-38. Wind N 10-20 MPH.

THURSDAY – THANKSGIVING: Mostly sunny. High 42-47. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 32. High 51.

SATURDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 35. High 56.

SUNDAY: Partly sunny. Low 38. High 59.

MONDAY (NOV 28): Chance of rain. Temps above normal.

TUESDAY (NOV 29): Mostly cloudy. Temps above normal.

WEDNESDAY (NOV 30): Partly sunny. Temps above normal.

9:06PM

Venturing a little further out on the limb this week to try to nail down the last 10 days of November. One thing’s for sure, despite some brief shots of cold air, we remain in a warmer than normal pattern and that will continue through month’s end.

The discussion will be short, because there are really no changes from the previous one, only adding some days at the end. What follows is a brief summary of upcoming weather for the Boston area followed by a detailed forecast.

A cold front moving through tonight is bringing only clouds but no precipitation with it. High pressure builds across northern New England Monday into Tuesday as the cold front settles just to the south and waits for low pressure to form and move along it. High pressure will hold wet weather off through Tuesday but some clouds will sneak in at times. Low pressure will cross New England from southwest to northeast Wednesday with a period of rain for the Boston area (too warm for snow this time). I still expect this to be a fast-moving feature with improvement for Thanksgiving, though along with a gusty breeze and chilly air. Much like the last few weeks, high pressure will build across the Northeast then offshore late in the week with mostly fair weather and a warming trend. The last few days of November will see at least one period of unsettled weather as low pressure tries to move in from the south and west, but may be slowed by high pressure hanging around just off the East Coast.

Details…

TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Low 40-45. Wind shifting to NW 10-15 MPH.

MONDAY: Variably cloudy. High 45-50. Wind NE 10-15 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Low 35-40. Wind E 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy. High 45-50. Wind SE 10-15 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Rain developing before midnight from southwest to northeast. Low 40-45. Wind SE 10-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Overcast. Rain through midday, ending southwest to northeast by 3PM. High 53-58. Wind SE 5-15 MPH shifting to SW by early afternoon and N by late day.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Low 33-38. Wind N 10-20 MPH.

THURSDAY – THANKSGIVING: Clearing. High 42-47. Wind N-NW 15-25 MPH.

FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 32. High 51.

SATURDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 35. High 56.

SUNDAY: Partly sunny. Low 38. High 59.

MONDAY (NOV 28): Chance of rain. Temps above normal.

TUESDAY (NOV 29): Mostly cloudy. Temps above normal.

WEDNESDAY (NOV 30): Partly sunny. Temps above normal.

5:50PM Saturday (original) / 7:32AM Sunday (edit)

The weather pattern is about to throw itself into chaos according to most reliable information. What we will see out of this for now is not a great deal of change from the type of weather we’ve been having. Frequent precipitation events, mild temperatures overall, and brief shots of cold weather, with snow threats only taking place when these cold shots and precipitation events collide (and that is not often). This situation (chaotic transitional pattern) will be in place for the foreseeable future.

The summary of events upcoming has not really changed much, and looking from now into Thanksgiving Weekend, I see these primary weather makers:

Sunday: High pressure offshore, gusty breeze from the southwest but very mild during the day, and a cold front coming through at night with little fanfare other than a gusty, shifting breeze and lots of clouds.

Monday: High pressure builds north of the region as the front hangs up to the south, meaning cooler temperatures and filtered to limited sun.

Tuesday: High pressure holds to the north, front slides northward, ripple of low pressure moving along it, south of the area, means less sun and a slight threat of rain.

Wednesday: A more organized low pressure area moves northeastward across southern New England with a period of rain during the day, and a few rain/snow showers at night.

Thursday: Thanksgiving Day will show improvement as low pressure moves away to the east northeast and high pressure builds toward the region from the west, but expect wind and chilly air, along with clouds to start, then increasing sun.

Friday: High pressure builds in – a bright day, cold start, milder finish.

Saturday: High pressure in control – fantastic late November day, dry and mild.

Forecast details for the Boston Area…

SUNDAY: Mostly sunny to partly cloudy. High 60-65. Wind SW 10-20 MPH and gusty.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Low 35-40. Wind SW 10-20 MPH shifting to NW.

MONDAY: Partly sunny. High 45-50. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Slight chance of light rain. Low 35. High 47.

WEDNESDAY: Overcast. Rain morning. Rain/snow showers night. Low 35. High 44.

THURSDAY: Clearing. Low 34. High 44.

FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 31. High 51.

SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 33. High 56.

3:34PM

Chilly air moved into the region Friday between departing low pressure to the north and high pressure to the southwest of New England. This high will settle south of New England and then off the Atlantic Coast this weekend with generally fair and milder to warmer weather. A cold front will cross the region Sunday night but is only expected to produce clouds without precipitation. A cool high pressure area builds in behind this front early next week. But the front will be lingering just to the south of New England and low pressure is expected to develop and travel along it, bringing unsettled weather for Wednesday, the big travel day before Thanksgiving. At the moment odds favor a weak to moderate and progressive system so it should not hang around. Odds also favor rain but temperatures may be borderline enough so that if we don’t have a wind off the water some areas could deal with a period of mix/snow. It’s far too early to be certain of any details, obviously. Fine-tuning to follow in the days ahead.  Thanksgiving Day, Thursday, should improve as the storm system moves away.

Tomorrow we’ll take a  peak into  Thanksgiving Weekend and Sunday we’ll venture a forecast out through the final days of November.

For now, the details for the Boston Area go this way…

TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Low ranging from the middle 20s inland valleys to middle 30s Boston. Wind W diminishing to under 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Partly cloudy early with an area of clouds moving across areas north of Boston, otherwise mostly sunny. High 51-56. Wind SW 10-20 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear to partly cloudy. Low 41-46. Wind SW 10-15 MPH.

SUNDAY: Partly sunny to mostly cloudy. High 60-65. Wind SW 10-20 MPH and gusty.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Low 45-50. Wind SW 10-20 MPH shifting to NW late.

MONDAY: Mostly sunny. High 50-55. Wind WNW 10-20 MPH.

TUESDAY: Partly sunny. Low 33. High 49.

WEDNESDAY: Cloudy. Chance of rain/mix. Low 32. High 44.

THURSDAY – THANKSGIVING: Clearing. Low 32. High 46.

FRIDAY: Partly cloudy. High 28. High 52.

3:39PM

Before you non-meteorologists ask what a “transitional phase” is, I’ll answer what I mean. All this means is that the current weather pattern (brief cool shots followed by dominant mild weather) is breaking down, but will not settle into a brand new stable pattern just yet. It will be a battle between the departing pattern and what I believe to be the upcoming one. Evidence presents itself to me in this form: Several runs of a normally stable computer model that have not looked too much like each other, but a few starting to come into some agreement. But forget the technical for now…all this means is more changeable weather from here through Thanksgiving, and probably beyond.

Highlights…

This evening: Rain/sleet/snow

Tonight/Friday:  Shot of chilly air tonight through Friday.

Weekend: Another warm-up.

Next week: Dry & chilly start, watching a storm for midweek.

Thanksgiving peek: Will lean toward improvement as progressive storm departs.

Discussion…

A wave of low pressure moving along a frontal boundary,  of which we are on the cold side, during this evening, producing light rain which will switch to sleet & snow when it comes down a little harder and colder air works in. Don’t expect much accumulation, only minor amounts on unpaved surfaces, with most of it occurring in hilly areas west and southwest of Boston (areas to the northwest may not see heavy enough precipitation to get much).

As low pressure departs Friday, expect a bright but breezy & chilly day and a cold night. This weekend, high pressure will slide off the East Coast and a southwest wind flow means milder to warmer temperatures. Expect temperatures to crack 50 Saturday and 60 Sunday.

Another front will quietly cross the region Sunday night with little or no precipitation, followed by high pressure which will bring dry and cool weather early next week.

By the middle of next week, we’ll be needing to watch a low pressure area to the southwest. It’s too early to determine where it will track exactly, and what impact it will have on the region. But way out in advance my early feeling is that Wednesday (a big travel day) will be an unsettled day, and Thursday (Thanksgiving) will see improvement. Stay tuned…

Boston Area Forecast…

THIS EVENING (THROUGH MIDNIGHT): Overcast with rain, mixing with sleet & snow, then turning to snow in some areas before tapering off. Accumulations of up to 1/2 inch are possible on unpaved surfaces especially in hilly areas west and southwest of Boston. Temperature falling into the 30s. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

OVERNIGHT (AFTER MIDNIGHT): Clearing. Low 27-32. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. High 46-51. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Low 27-32. Wind WSW 5-10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. High 51-56. Wind SW 10-15 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Low 40-45. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY: Partly sunny. High 60-65. Wind SW 10-20 MPH.

MONDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 40. High 50.

TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 30. High 50.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of rain/mix. Low 32. High 44.

THURSDAY – THANKSGIVING: AM rain/snow showers. PM clearing. Low 32. High 44.

Temps fall thru 40s this aftn and light rain comes in..picks up and ends as mix and snow tonight. Coating of snow in some places…best chance hills west and southwest of Boston.

Amateurs and pros…give me your guess how this unfolds. Full update from WHW this afternoon!!

3:43PM

A quick note for the computer model followers: I’m of the opinion that the 12z ECMWF is a piece of garbage today. It’s far too different from the last several runs for me to buy full-on.  Something’s amiss.

Discussion…

Current mild spell ends midweek as low pressure moves along a slow-moving cold front and gives us some rain Wednesday. Clouds linger behind the departing low Thursday as it turns windy and much cooler. A dry but chilly day is expected Friday due to high pressure building right across the region. High pressure slips offshore by the weekend with yet another warm-up. A disturbance early next week may bring a brief bout of unsettled weather sometime later Monday or  Tuesday, but this does not look like a big deal at this time. A bit early to look at Thanksgiving with any confidence, and even more-so due to some model flip-flopping, so I’ll leave that just out of reach for today and take a first stab at it tomorrow.

Boston Area Forecast…

TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy with a slight chance of a few light rain showers. Low 45-50. Wind W under 10 MPH shifting to N.

WEDNESDAY: Cloudy. Periods of rain, mainly during the afternoon hours. High 55-60. Wind E under 10 MPH shifting to S.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Periods of rain, especially before midnight. Low 40-45. Wind W up to 10 MPH shifting to N.

THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy to partly sunny. High 45-50. Wind NW 15-25 MPH.

FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 31. High 48.

SATURDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 29. High 53.

SUNDAY: Mostly cloudy. Low 41. High 62.

MONDAY: Partly sunny. Chance of rain or snow showers at night. Low 41. High 51.

TUESDAY:  Mostly cloudy. Chance of rain or snow showers early. Low 34. High 46.

Sorry for the delay. Only tweak from previous is cloudier today with a few sprinkles…

6:38PM

Highlights…

* Still in mild regime overall

* Warmest day: Monday

* Wettest day: Wednesday

* Windiest day: Thursday

* Coolest day: Friday

* Weekend Warm-up

Breakdown…

A weakening frontal system moves toward the region Monday, producing varying amounts of clouds and only the slight risk of a few showers in the late afternoon or evening hours.  Warm air will dominate with temperatures sitting at much above normal levels in the 60s. This front settles south of the region Tuesday allowing some sunshine mixed with clouds.  Wet  weather is expected Wednesday as the front hangs up along the coast as a wave of low pressure forms and moves northeastward along it, holding unsettled weather in. Behind this low pressure area Thursday except drier but windy and cooler weather. Continued cool weather is expected Friday but it should be a bright day under high pressure, and once this high slips offshore by the weekend it should turn milder again.

Boston Area Forecast Details…

MONDAY: Variably cloudy. High 63-68. Wind SW 10-20 MPH gusting around 25 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Scattered light rain showers. Low 46-51. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY: Variably cloudy. High 60-65. Wind SW 10-20 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Cloudy. Rain likely. Low 45. High 55.

THURSDAY: Partly sunny. Windy. Low 35. High 48.

FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 28. High 47.

SATURDAY: Partly sunny. Low 32. High 53.

SUNDAY: Partly sunny. Low 43. High 62.