DAYS 1-5 (JUNE 9-13)

I often use the quote “all systems fail in a drought” when in or talking about a drought. You know that obviously that’s never 100% true, and even though only part of our region (as of last report) is classified in drought at this time, drought or no drought, this system is not a failure today. A developing low pressure wave passing through the region is already bringing a nice slug of rain, the first associated with its warm front this morning. This round will be the most widespread and deliver about a half to an inch and a half of rainfall to the region, including the potential for some embedded thunder. “Round 2” is not going to be as widespread or long-lasting, but in the form of isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms, some possibly strong/severe, with the system’s cold front that will be pulling through the region early to mid afternoon. After that, we’re done with the rain threat from it, and drier air flows in to clear us out through tonight, setting up a nice day on Friday as high pressure builds toward the region from the west. This high pressure area, while not a strong one, will be over us Friday night into Saturday before sliding off to the east. During this time, a wave of low pressure will form and pass well south of the region, and may only add some clouds to the sky, but will bring no rain threat, so Saturday is definitely to be the pick of the coming weekend. But don’t get too nervous about Sunday by my saying that. I think we salvage a good part of the weekend with dry weather the majority of Sunday. As an upper level low pressure area and associated surface low and frontal system approach from the west later Sunday, we will see clouds roll in and the chance of rainfall increase, but based on current timing it looks like most of that will occur Sunday night. The upper low still has to cross our region Monday, based on current expecting timing, so that day carries the chance of at least some pop up showers and potential thunderstorms.

TODAY: Cloudy with widespread showers and embedded thunderstorms in the morning, tapering off / ending southwest to northeast by midday. Variably cloudy midday through mid afternoon with isolated to scattered showers/thunderstorms, some of which may be strong to locally severe. Sun/cloud mix later in the day. Humid through early afternoon – dew point 60s. Highs 70-77. Wind E 5-15 MPH morning, S at similar speeds but gusty afternoon, shifting to W late in the day or evening.

TONIGHT: Clearing. Lows 52-59. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Sunshine and passing clouds. Highs 73-80. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 52-59. Wind variable under 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 73-80, coolest coast. Wind variable up to 10 MPH with coastal sea breezes.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Lows 59-66. Wind SE to variable up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of showers by late day. Highs 75-82. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Showers likely. Chance of thunderstorms. Lows 60-67. Wind S to variable 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of showers and thunderstorms. Highs 75-82. Wind variable to W 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

DAYS 6-10 (JUNE 14-18)

High pressure builds in from Canada with fair and seasonably mild weather the first few days of this period, coolest temperatures at the coast. A low pressure system approaching and arriving from the west later in the period brings the chance of unsettled weather back to the region.

DAYS 11-15 (JUNE 19-23)

Overall weak westerly air flow with a tendency, eventually, for more high pressure south of New England. An initial push of mild and dry Canadian air would be followed by a transition period with clouds and a shower chance, then perhaps the feel of summer by the end of the period.

C-19 Chat Post – 6-9-2022

DAYS 1-5 (JUNE 8-12)

This morning starts overcast and damp / humid. In some places, it’s quite rainy – specifically I speak of a band of moderate to heavy showers from the South Shore to Narragansett Bay moving to the east, crossing Cape Cod into mid morning, while there are just isolated to scattered showers elsewhere. All of the shower activity will head offshore as a front clears the area by later this morning, after which we will see improvement – breaks in the clouds first, and then even a fair amount of clearing / sun this afternoon. While the air will dry out somewhat, the temperature will respond to the emerging sun and it will be a mild to warm afternoon. Our drier interlude will be short-lived, however, as a wave of low pressure races toward our region tonight and brings another slug of rainfall, this one fairly widespread and at least briefly moderate to heavy, during Thursday morning and midday, before it moves away. Do the clouds break as quickly Thursday as they do today? Probably not, but we still should work enough dry air into the region to see at least breaks of sun as the afternoon goes on. Complete clearing arrives as a result of drier air moving into the region behind the departed low Thursday night and lasts through Friday, which will be a nice day. A weak bubble of high pressure moving in to provide Friday’s nice weather will hang around into Saturday as well before sliding offshore. The next rain threat for the coming weekend has been one I’ve been doubting for a few days now, of the opinion that the system will be weaker and further south than it first appeared on guidance. I still feel this way, but the guidance is also (and has been for several runs) trending in this direction, giving me a little more confidence in this prognostication. What does that mean? It means that I think other than a brief rain chance near the South Coast Saturday night, if that even happens, the bulk of the weekend is dry. What we do have to watch for is the arrival of upper level low pressure from the west, which if quick enough can turn Sunday unsettled before it concludes. I’ll be watching for the timing and integrity of this feature as we get closer to the weekend, and fine-tune appropriately…

TODAY: Cloudy start including widespread moderate to heavy showers and a slight risk of thunder in southeastern MA and scattered to isolated showers elsewhere, ending from west to east by late morning. Becoming partly to mostly sunny midday-afternoon. Highs 75-82, coolest South Coast. Wind S 5-15 MPH shifting to W, occasional higher gusts.

TONIGHT: Clouding up. Rain chances increase toward dawn. Lows 60-67. Wind W diminishing to under 10 MPH then becoming variable to calm.

THURSDAY: Cloudy with widespread showers and embedded thunderstorms in the morning, tapering off / ending southwest to northeast midday. Breaking clouds and partial sun possible as the afternoon goes on. Highs 70-77. Wind E 5-15 MPH morning, S at similar speeds but gusty afternoon, shifting to W late in the day or evening.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Lows 52-59. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Sunshine and passing clouds. Highs 73-80. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 52-59. Wind variable under 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 73-80, coolest coast. Wind variable up to 10 MPH with coastal sea breezes.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Brief rain chance South Coast. Lows 60-67. Wind SE up to 10 MPH becoming variable.

SUNDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of showers by late day. Highs 75-82. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JUNE 13-17)

Upper level low pressure brings the chance of showers and thunderstorms June 13 before high pressure moves in for a few days with fair weather. Another system approaching from the west increases the chance of unsettled weather by the end of the period.

DAYS 11-15 (JUNE 18-22)

Overall weak westerly air flow with a tendency, eventually, for more high pressure south of New England. After a transition with a couple of unsettled episodes, the feel of summer may be here before this forecast period concludes, just in time for the arrival of summer itself.

C-19 Chat Post – 6-8-2022

DAYS 1-5 (JUNE 7-11)

High pressure slides offshore today and much of the day will be fairly nice, a bit warmer (still coolest coast) and rain-free, even though clouds will be on the increase as the day goes on, ahead of an approaching trough and cold front. This front brings showers tonight and Wednesday morning. An additional shower or t-storm may pop up around midday as the actual frontal boundary comes through the region, then we get a dry interlude, but we don’t completely clear out as the front doesn’t really get far and a wave of low pressure approaches from the southwest. This low pressure wave will bring us a period of widespread showers Wednesday night and Thursday morning, helping to cut into our nearly 5-inch rainfall deficit for the year-so-far. Improvement comes later Thursday as the low moves away, and high pressure builds in with nice weather for Friday and into Saturday. Leaning toward an upcoming storm threat for the weekend being weaker and further south than modeled, so for now I have dry through Saturday…

TODAY: Increasing clouds. Chance of showers by evening, favoring eastern CT, central MA, and southwestern NH. Highs 74-81, coolest South Coast. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Showers likely. Chance of a thunderstorm. Lows 56-63. Wind SW to variable 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Showers likely through mid morning. Chance of a shower or thunderstorm midday. Highs 73-80. Wind variable to W 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Showers likely, especially late evening and overnight. Areas of fog. Lows 58-65. Wind variable 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY: Cloudy with showers likely in the morning. Sun/cloud mix afternoon. Highs 70-77. Wind variable 5-15 MPH becoming NW.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 53-60. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Sun/cloud mix. Highs 71-78, coolest coast. Wind variable up to 10 MPH with coastal sea breezes.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 52-59. Wind variable under 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 73-80, coolest coast. Wind variable up to 10 MPH with coastal sea breezes.

DAYS 6-10 (JUNE 12-16)

If my idea about the weekend system is right, we may see dry weather Sunday June 12 with only a fleeting chance of rain near the South Coast. Upper level low pressure in the region early next week may kick off some diurnal isolated to scattered shower and thunderstorms June 13 and/or 14. Fair weather follows as that low moves away and weak high pressure dominates later in the period. Temperatures near to slightly below normal.

DAYS 11-15 (JUNE 17-21)

Continuing the idea of a weak westerly flow but mean trough position to our west by a short distance, sending minor disturbances and a couple shower chances. Temperatures mostly near normal though a bit variable – no extremes expected.

C-19 Chat Post – 6-7-2022

DAYS 1-5 (JUNE 6-10)

This work week (Monday-Friday) will feature unsettled weather in the middle book-ended by fair weather. We start with high pressure in control as it slides from over our region to offshore today into Tuesday with fair weather. A frontal system approaches later Tuesday sending in the clouds and eventually a round of showers Tuesday evening into early Wednesday. This front passes through and enough dry air gets in to shut off the showers for a time, but the front doesn’t get far, and a wave of low pressure traveling along it will bring us a round of rainfall Wednesday night into Thursday morning before a stronger push of dry air clears us out later Thursday. This sets up the fair and dry weather for Friday as high pressure moves in.

TODAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 73-80, coolest South Coast. Wind S up to 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 52-59. Wind S up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Increasing clouds. Chance of showers by evening, favoring eastern CT, central MA, and southwestern NH. Highs 74-81, coolest South Coast. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Showers likely. Chance of a thunderstorm. Lows 56-63. Wind SW to variable 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers, favoring the morning. Highs 68-75. Wind variable 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Showers likely. Areas of fog. Lows 58-65. Wind variable 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY: Cloudy with showers likely in the morning. Sun/cloud mix afternoon. Highs 70-77. Wind variable 5-15 MPH becoming NW.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 53-60. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Sun/cloud mix. Highs 71-78, coolest coast. Wind variable up to 10 MPH with coastal sea breezes.

DAYS 6-10 (JUNE 11-15)

Uncertainty in the forecast for the June 11-12 weekend. Most of our guidance has low pressure making a run at the region, but the timing varies, and this is not unusual to see on various models beyond a few days. Suffice it to say we can expect a period of unsettled weather at some time this weekend as it stands now, but it may be only for a number of hours and I’m not quite sure what the timing is quite yet. Re-evaluation next update. Trend is for fair weather early the following week and maybe some unsettled weather by the very end of the 6-10 day period. Temperatures near to slightly below normal.

DAYS 11-15 (JUNE 16-20)

Continuing the idea of a weak westerly flow but mean trough position to our west by a short distance, sending minor disturbances and a couple shower chances. Temperatures mostly near normal though a bit variable – no extremes expected.

C-19 Chat Post – 6-6-2022

DAYS 1-5 (JUNE 5-9)

High pressure brings fair and seasonably mild June weather to us today and Monday, even as the high slips off to the east later Monday. By Tuesday, the high’s departure is enough to allow clouds and eventual showers in from the west as a trough sends low pressure and a frontal system our way, but we will probably get through a fair amount of the day without any rain, based on current timing. The trough’s passage will be rather slow, so unsettled weather will continue into midweek, culminating with a possible heavier batch of showers later Wednesday / early Thursday as a low pressure wave passes through. Drier air should return by later Thursday.

TODAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 71-78, coolest coast. Wind W to variable up to 10 MPH but some light coastal sea breezes midday-afternoon.

TONIGHT: Mostly clear to partly cloudy. Lows 50-57. Wind S up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Mostly sunny to partly cloudy. Highs 72-79, coolest South Coast. Wind S up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 52-59. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of showers, especially later in the day. Highs 73-80, coolest South Coast. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Showers likely. Chance of a thunderstorm. Lows 57-64. Wind SW to variable 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers, favoring the morning. Highs 72-79. Wind variable 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Showers likely. Areas of fog. Lows 60-67. Wind variable 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY: Cloudy with showers likely in the morning. Sun/cloud mix afternoon. Highs 70-77. Wind variable 5-15 MPH becoming W 10-20 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JUNE 10-14)

A weak westerly flow continues. High pressure should bring fair weather to start and end the period with best chance of unsettled weather mid period. Temperatures near to slightly below normal.

DAYS 11-15 (JUNE 15-19)

Continued generally weak westerly flow pattern with mean trough position not too far to our west which sends a few disturbances through the region, producing shower threats. Still holding off on the idea of a switch to East Coast ridge later in the period, but watching for that possible pattern shift.

C-19 Chat Post – 6-5-2022

DAYS 1-5 (JUNE 4-8)

The first weekend of June, keeping in mind that while we call this meteorological summer that it is still spring, behaves like late spring. Starting out today we have a considerable covering of stratus clouds, but with little more to feed it and high-angle sun to work on it, we’ll see it dissipate by midday. The June sun will then work on what little moisture is near ground level to help raise some thermals and pop some diurnal cumulus clouds this afternoon, making for a sun/cloud mix. Later in the day, a cold front coming along from the west may trigger some taller clouds, enough to produce a shower (maybe even brief downpour) for some areas, but coverage on these looks low, with best chance of occurrence north of I-90, so while these will not be beneficial in terms of our rainfall deficit, they will also not be overly-interrupting of outdoor plans, maybe just causing brief delays of activities here and there. Tonight, the front pushes eastward, offshore, and we experience a clear and dry night, a bit cool too. Sunday, high pressure brings us a top 10 “chamber of commerce” style day, with lots of sunshine, low humidity, and mild air. For people desiring the beach or lake for swimming, it will be a little cooler than most would like, but no surprise for early June. Still a very nice day for outdoor activities! The high pressure area will slide off to the east but retain control of our weather Monday – another nice day – before giving it up Tuesday as an approaching trough from the west sends a frontal system our way, increasing the cloudiness and eventually bringing a chance of showers, which as it looks now will hang around into Wednesday as the front slows down while moving through. I must also mention that a tropical low (not strong enough to be a tropical storm as of yet) is moving northeastward across South Florida today, bringing heavy rain and areas of flooding there, and this system, likely to get a name (Alex) as it heads offshore, remains well south of New England into early next week on its ocean journey, but may eventually kick up our ocean swells but most likely not until Monday. But our water “hazard” this weekend will be that the water temps are still a bit too chilly for safe swimming, so keep that in mind if you do have “in-water” plans.

TODAY: Mostly cloudy start, then a sun/cloud mix. A late-day shower possible, favoring areas north of I-90. Highs 71-78, coolest along the coast. Wind variable to S up to 10 MPH with light coastal sea breezes.

TONIGHT: Mostly clear. A few fog patches interior low-lying spots. Lows 48-55. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 71-78, coolest coast. Wind W to variable up to 10 MPH but some light coastal sea breezes midday-afternoon.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear to partly cloudy. Lows 50-57. Wind S up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Mostly sunny to partly cloudy. Highs 72-79, coolest South Coast. Wind S up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 52-59. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of showers, especially later in the day. Highs 73-80, coolest South Coast. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Showers likely. Chance of a thunderstorm. Lows 57-64. Wind SW to variable 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers, favoring the morning. Highs 72-79. Wind variable 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JUNE 9-13)

The aforementioned trough will still be to our west for a good part of this period of time, and this gives us an opportunity for a couple additional episodes of unsettled weather. With a weekend (June 11-12) in there there will be plenty of scrutiny on the details for the weather, but as you know it’s a bit early to be confident of day-to-day details, so there will be fine-tuning to come. For now, I’ll lean toward early June 9 and late June 10 to early June 11 as having the slightly higher probabilities of seeing any wet weather. Temperatures for this period will average near to slightly below normal.

DAYS 11-15 (JUNE 14-18)

Continued generally weak westerly flow pattern with mean trough position not too far to our west which sends a few disturbances through the region with shower threats, but mostly minor systems and limited rain threats. Early hints that the pattern wants to shift a little later in the period to put more ridge near the East Coast, but this will probably take place later than current mid range projections indicate, so will hold back on going for this. Temperatures slightly below to near normal.

C-19 Chat Post – 6-4-2022

DAYS 1-5 (JUNE 3-7)

One more unsettled and cool day in our early June stretch of weather that reminds us more of April. A final disturbance is moving across the region from west to east, and the shower threat will be with us through midday under an overcast sky with areas of fog and drizzle about as well. After that, a drying-out process begins, but the atmosphere will be unstable enough so that a few more showers may pop up later in the day, moving southeastward across the region through early evening. This can have some impact on any outdoor early evening graduation ceremonies. Our weekend is looking much better, but as previously mentioned there is one more disturbance going by on Saturday, the main impact of it to our north, but a little frontal boundary has to swing through our region and a situation similar to later today exists for Saturday afternoon / early evening, although any shower activity on this boundary should have a little lower coverage than any activity that pops up today – something to keep an eye on though. Sunday looks like a stellar, “top 10 / chamber of commerce” type day with high pressure in control, providing lots of sunshine and dry, mild air. Monday, high pressure shifts offshore and we warm up a little bit, but keep fair weather – just a few more clouds around than Sunday. A frontal system approaches the region Tuesday with more clouds still, and eventually the threat of showers and possibly a thunderstorm. Also of note, a tropical system will be moving across South Florida from southwest to northeast the next couple days (bringing some heavy rain and a threat of flooding there), and as this system moves out into the Atlantic, far south of New England, it will be a formidable system as it strengthens but loses tropical characteristics, and it will stir up some larger ocean swells which can impact our coastal areas up here, especially early next week.

TODAY: Cloudy with showers as well as areas of fog and drizzle this morning. Breaking clouds afternoon with an additional shower possible late afternoon through sunset. Highs 63-70, coolest coast. Wind variable to E up to 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Lots of clouds. Fog patches forming. Lows 50-57. Wind E to variable under 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Lots of clouds to start, then sun/cloud mix. Mid to late afternoon passing shower possible. Highs 71-78. Wind variable to S up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy early, then clearing. Lows 48-55. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 71-78, coolest coast. Wind W to variable up to 10 MPH but some light coastal sea breezes midday-afternoon.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 50-57. Wind S up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Partly cloudy. Highs 72-79, coolest South Coast. Wind S up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 52-59. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of showers, especially later in the day. Highs 73-80, coolest South Coast. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JUNE 8-12)

A trough of low pressure swinging through the region to start the period (June 8) brings a shower threat, and another follows that (June 9-10) with another shower or t-storm chance. End of the period is drier with high pressure moving in. Temperatures near to slightly below normal overall.

DAYS 11-15 (JUNE 13-17)

Continued generally weak westerly flow pattern with mean trough position not too far to our west which sends a few disturbances through the region with shower threats, but mostly minor systems and limited rain threats. Temperatures slightly below to near normal.

C-19 Chat Post – 6-3-2022

DAYS 1-5 (JUNE 2-6)

Cool and unsettled weather continues for a couple more days as a frontal boundary lies across the region and disturbances move through the area. Our greatest rain chance remaining in this unsettled episode comes tonight and early Friday. High pressure builds in with fair, cool to mild, dry weather for the first weekend of June. Previously, I have talked about June 6 (Monday) being the start of an unsettled period of weather early the following week. For now, I am thinking that the weekend high pressure area will shift offshore but still be close enough to keep our weather fair.

TODAY: Cloudy. Highs 60-67. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Cloudy. Showers likely. Areas of fog. Lows 52-59. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Cloudy with showers as well as areas of fog and drizzle morning. Breaking clouds afternoon with an additional isolated shower possible. Highs 63-70, coolest coast. Wind variable to N up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Gradual clearing. Fog patches evening. Lows 50-57. Wind N up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Sun and passing clouds. Highs 71-78. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy early, then clearing. Lows 51-58. Wind N up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Sun and high clouds. Highs 71-78, coolest coast. Wind variable up to 10 MPH with coastal sea breezes.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 55-62. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Partly cloudy. Highs 73-80, coolest South Coast. Wind S up to 10 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JUNE 7-11)

Two troughs / frontal systems to move through the Northeast with a weak westerly flow, bringing a couple episodes of unsettled weather during this period with temperatures near to below normal. Too early for details / timing of each system and its products.

DAYS 11-15 (JUNE 12-16)

Overall weak westerly flow pattern should bring mostly fair weather overall but a couple disturbances also bring shower threats, which we cannot time this far in advance. No extremes of temperature foreseen.