Saturday May 29 2021 Forecast (8:18AM)

61 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (MAY 29 – JUNE 2)

The timing may not be great, but after a fairly warm and dry meteorological spring, we are going to end it with a stretch of cool and wet weather over the Memorial Day Weekend. This happens as a frontal boundary sits to the south of the region and a series of low pressure waves travel along it. The first of these spread its rain into the region late yesterday and provided a good soaking of 1 to 2 inches, much of it falling during the night time hours. Today, as that first low pressure wave departs, the rain will taper off and some residual moisture result in a few more areas of mostly lighter rain crossing the area in patches while low level moisture on a northeast wind creates pockets of drizzle, especially closer to eastern coastal areas. Temperatures that fell into the 40s during the night due to the combination of the advance of a chilly eastern Canadian airmass into the region and colder air being brought down from above by rainfall will hardly recover at all today. With the thick overcast in place, very limited solar radiation will make it through, only enough to “warm” us up a few degrees, so early morning temperatures which range from 42 to 49 across the WHW forecast area will only warm about 3 degrees maximum in any given location. In comparison to the middle 80s to lower 90s we experienced just 3 days ago, that feels pretty cold! However, we’ve seen this happen both in the cool-down and warm-up directions many times here in the spring. It’s just one characteristic of our climate. Another important note: While we’re not exactly experiencing good beach weather this weekend, over the next couple of days, the combination of astronomically high tides and an onshore wind up to moderate speeds will result in areas of coastal flooding around the times of high tides. Water levels may be up to around a foot above normal during peak high tide times, so keep this in mind if you will be near the water. Looking ahead a little, the next main low pressure wave will respond to an upper level wind that turns a little more southerly, and this low is now expected to cut across the Connecticut Valley late Sunday through early Monday, with a more showery rainfall pattern resulting, with fairly good coverage of showers any time Sunday into the morning hours of Memorial Day Monday. If we see a tongue of drier air move up from the southwest quickly enough, it may end up drier for some of the Memorial Day ceremonies being held on Monday, but that part of the forecast will have to be tweaked right up into that morning since it’s hard to predict the timing of showery precipitation, and it will come down to exact location of the low center and trough axis. With a bit more southerly air flow evolving during the latter portion of the weekend, we’ll warm things up slightly, so that some locations may get back to the 60s during Monday. So this ends Meteorological Spring, which was warm and dry overall, on a chilly and wet note, but provides some additional beneficial rainfall. Looking ahead, June begins on a warmer note with a bit more humid feel as high pressure sits over the Middle Atlantic region to just offshore of there on Tuesday and Wednesday, but while this goes on a frontal boundary will be drifting toward our area from the west, bringing with it some clouds, and possibly leading to the chance of showers again by later Wednesday…

TODAY: Overcast. Periods of rain. Areas of drizzle and fog. Highs 45-52. Wind NE 5-15 MPH with gusts up to 25 MPH inland and 10-20 MPH with gusts up to 35 MPH coastal areas.

TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Areas of drizzle and fog especially near the coast. Lows 42-49. Wind NE 5-15 MPH with gusts 20-30 MPH, strongest at the coast.

SUNDAY: Cloudy. Rain likely in the morning. Showers likely in the afternoon. Areas of fog and drizzle. Highs 48-55. Wind NE to E 5-15 MPH with gusts 20-30 MPH, strongest in coastal areas.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Showers likely. Slight chance of a thunderstorm overnight. Areas of fog and drizzle. Temperatures steady 48-55. Wind E to SE 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

MONDAY (MEMORIAL DAY): Mostly cloudy. Showers likely in the morning. Chance of showers in the afternoon. Highs 58-65. Wind SE 5-15 MPH shifting to SW during the morning then NW during the afternoon.

MONDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Areas of fog possible. Lows 50-57. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 71-78. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 55-62. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Partly to mostly cloudy. Chance of showers late-day or evening. Highs 72-79. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 7-10 (JUNE 3-7)

Seasonably warm, more humid, and episodes of isolated to scattered showers/thunderstorms with the general pattern likely to feature high pressure offshore, high pressure in Canada, and a weak boundary nearby. An intrusion of cooler air is possible around June 4-5, but not certain.

DAYS 11-15 (JUNE 8-12)

Overall idea right now is similar pattern will continue but shower threat may decrease somewhat.

61 thoughts on “Saturday May 29 2021 Forecast (8:18AM)”

  1. Good morning and thank you TK.
    Substantial rain last evening and overnight. As of a few minutes ago, measured 2.58 inches in ye ole rain gauge.

    1. Despite my having to eat my NAM-disparaging words on round 1, I do think that round 1 will have produced more rain across the region in general than the rest of the weekend. Can there be exceptions? Yup, but probably not many.

      I’m personally loving the cool/damp weather from a selfish standpoint because I have no excuse not to get a bunch of unfinished tasks done inside during the course of the next 3 days.

      Woburn is having their Memorial Day ceremony on Monday. Typically this would start at 8AM with a parade of two bands, military representatives, and city officials into the common, followed by a full ceremony, then a parade from there up to one of the main cemeteries not too far from the city center, and a shorter ceremony there, then for those who want to stick with it until the end, bused to the east side of the city for another short parade down the road that leads to the other larger cemetery where a ceremony is held similar to the one at the other cemetery.

      However, this year, it’s starting at 9AM. and they are just confining it to the full ceremony in the city center (Woburn Common) without a parade. This makes sense to me given we’re right on the edge of coming out of the restrictions and there is a significant percentage of the crowd over 65 years old. Personally, I’m very happy they are doing the ceremony and equally happy they are still practicing safety for the protection of those still vulnerable, as face masks will be required to attend. The risk may be quite low now, but to analogize a bit, it’s kind of like the “low but not zero” tornado risk talk we use sometimes. This ceremony is to be held regardless of weather. We’ve done many Memorial Day and Veterans Day ceremonies and parades in rain, wind, cold, heat, etc. here in the city. We’re a tough bunch, but smart too. 😉 …

  2. Thank you, TK

    We are also having a few remembrances in cemeteries. I know some are upset that there will not be a parade. We will not have one on the fourth either. I am disappointed also but understand. In addition to safety due to covid, parades typically depend on sponsors. Planning takes close to a year. It was not possible for most ….maybe all….towns to coordinate the many moving parts it takes to make these events possible.

    1. A lot of the not-happening July 4th ceremonies are very much because of lack of time to properly sponsor & plan rooted in the uncertainty of when it would be safe to do so. It was a fine-line for a lot of cities & towns that risked having to put work in that would go for naught or end up with an event far less organized (and therefore risky to hold) than was acceptable. It’s sad how many nasty reactions I’ve seen on social media by people who don’t understand this. Sure we all want everything to be right back on track this summer, but it’s just not that simple. It will take a number of months to climb out of the hole, and larger events like that will be the most impacted.

      1. Exactly. I think once it is explained, most understand. I had absolutely no clue what went into planning …nor I think did anyone on our committee. Most do not. But it was a blast.

  3. We had a little less in Natick at 2.4 inches than Dave. Just curious what your ballpark estimate is for the balance of the weekend. Need to know how big a puzzle to start. Thanks.

      1. Thanks. I like Cheney’s songs. The words usually resonate for me. A few others also but new country. Not my go to but is part of my Pandora list. My girls got me interested

  5. Logan came in at 2.05 inches, so once again I am wondering
    IF my rain gauge needs to be recalibrated. I am sitting at 2.63 inches. I mean it did pour all night, but still that is quite a difference over 5 or 6 miles.

  9. Thanks TK. A lot of rain in a short amount of time. 1.75 here and now on to round 2. Dave, glad to hear Mrs. OS is doing a little better.

  11. Thanks TK.

    2.1” of rain so far here in Coventry CT bringing us to a total of 3.2” in the last 3 days and 5.68” so far on the month of May. And round 1 is not over yet with another batch of moderate rain approaching from the southwest.

    My daughters entire softball tournament was cancelled this weekend which is surprising as they play through pretty much anything.

  13. Thanks TK.

    Is a record cold “high” temp possible at Logan for today?

    I heard that wet snowflakes were recorded at Worcester very early this morning. Is that correct?

    1. Don’t know. But on June 1 and 2, 2015 (I could be wrong about the year), Logan’s high temperature was 49F. I believe that was a record.

    3. In their technical discussions they tend to use GMT or Z-time, like what we use for the guidance.

      In their public information they use whatever time we’re on. Right now, they use Daylight Savings Time. It’d be downright silly for them to be using Standard Time while we’re on DST, unless they were TRYING to confuse everyone. 😉

      1. According to Dave Epstein this morning, they are on Standard time with regard to their official climo data. I never thought of it before in that way.

  15. Just thinking out loud. I do enjoy nature

    With a solid east wind, I noticed something today that I am surprised I didn’t see earlier. Perhaps, it is because we don’t often have an east wind as strong as today

    The neighborhood is rimmed on the WSW, W and NW by a hill topped with a deep layer of mature trees. I love to watch they sway in the wind…and boy, can they away. But today, it is newer, less mature and not tall trees in our yard that are doubling over.

    I hadn’t noticed how the rim protects the smaller trees from winds except from the east which is the only unprotected direction

  16. Looks like a whole new batch of rain has bubbled up from the SW. Looks like it will be steady rain for sometime yet today.

  17. Thanks TK !

    I started a camp fire about 4pm. First drops set in at 6:30, but by then, we had a nice hot fire. Also, with good pine trees above, rain ‘starts’ later because it takes a while to drench the tree, so we managed to hang in there til quiet hours at 10.

    More challenging today with everything soaked, but we’ll get one going and try to stay relatively warm and dry. 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂

  19. Tom, you are one tough camper. I admire it. I love camping and have done so in bad conditions, but I feel like I’m too old for it, now.

    I do recall trekking through the Adirondacks – about 35 miles – in the summer of 1986 with friends. We pitched tents where we could a few nights and got steady downpours, and slept in a lean-toe two nights (it was like staying at the Four Seasons, compared to the camping). Still, I have fond memories, especially of building a roaring fire – it took a while – to warm up and dry out. The Adirondacks can get quite cold in summer; colder than the Whites in NH. I also camped in the Adirondacks in July of 2004 with my children. We experienced 30s at night; freezing fog on Mt. Marcy.

  22. For May 29th, this is a rather cool set of temperatures across all of Canada. Not much warmth at all. Notably, Montreal and Quebec City are sitting pretty this weekend, at 17 and 15 degrees celsius, respectively, under partly cloudy skies. https://weather.gc.ca/canada_e.html

    1. On that map, you’ll also find a link to warnings/advisories. You’ll notice the extraordinarily widespread frost advisories. across large parts of Canada.

    2. There have been several “coldest in 10, 20, or 30 years” type things going on around the entire world of late. Different regime it seems! AMO? Probably somewhat. Other factors? Most likely.

  23. As we all know how lucky we are to have this blog & the experience of TK & others I just wanted to acknowledge Tk . I had a job in Plymouth that I really needed to get done today ( normally I would have called it a rain day . Due to a family situation I need to be in Maine next weekend so I can’t do my side hustle & all of June is booked out solid , so getting a job in was huge . Tk & I have been talking since yesterday & he watched this closely for me & advised since last night this job would be a go just be patient. Well he was spot on & even was communicating with me while I was out in the field ( radar pictures & all lol . Thanks again Tk as you really came through for me in a big time way today .

  25. Just saw that AJ was forecasting another 1.5 inches for the Boston/metro west area for the balence of the weekend. Does this jibe with your outlook? I am running out of indoor activities.

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