Sunday June 6 2021 Forecast (7:57AM)

54 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (JUNE 6-10)

While it is technically late spring, the weather pattern will allow us to feel mid summer heat the next few days as high pressure sits over us aloft and a surface high builds across the Mid Atlantic then offshore through Tuesday. The air will be stable enough to keep any showers and thunderstorms from popping up through Monday, though we may see some remnant clouds in the sky at times from activity that occurs in the Midwest and Great Lakes. Tuesday, while we keep the ridging and hot weather in place, we will see an increase in available moisture in the form of higher dew point air (more humidity than the previous two days) and a better chance of showers and thunderstorms developing with the day’s heating. Not expecting widespread activity Tuesday, just scattered, but areas that do see something can be in for some very heavy downpours. Wednesday, a strong cold front will move down from eastern Canada and while the day likely is a humid and very warm one ahead of the front, there will be the risk of showers and thunderstorms ahead of and along the front as it moves through the region, the details of which can be fine tuned as we get a little closer to this event. Behind the front, Canadian high pressure will bring much cooler and drier weather to our region Thursday.

TODAY: Sunshine and patchy high clouds. Highs 90-97 except much cooler South Coast / Cape Cod and a few protruded locations on the eastern coast. Moderately humid – dew point lower to middle 60s. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. Patchy fog mostly interior lower elevations. Lows 67-74. Moderately humid – dew point lower to middle 60s. Wind SW under 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Partly cloudy. Highs 91-98, cooler South Coast / Cape Cod again. Humid – dew point middle 60s. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 69-76. Humid – dew point middle to upper 60s. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Partly cloudy. Scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms possible. Highs 88-95, cooler South Coast / Cape Cod. Very humid – dew point upper 60s to lower 70s. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 68-75. Very humid – dew point upper 60s to near 70. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of showers and thunderstorms. Highs 85-92, cooler Cape Cod. Very humid – dew point near 70. Wind W 5-15 MPH, possibly gusty.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Chance of showers/thunderstorms evening. Areas of fog. Lows 60-67. Humid evening – dew point 60s, drying overnight – dew point falling to 50s. Wind variable 5-15 MPH shifting to N.

THURSDAY: Partly cloudy. Highs 71-78, coolest eastern coastal areas and Cape Cod. Dry – dew point falling to upper 40s. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 7-10 (JUNE 11-15)

Canadian high pressure brings dry and seasonable weather for June 11. Attempted return of warmer and more humid air from the south sets up the potential for some unsettled weather in the June 12-13 period. High pressure should return with fair weather later in the period.

DAYS 11-15 (JUNE 16-20)

As we head down the home stretch of astronomical spring and toward the summer solstice (late on June 20), expect a generally zonal (west to east) flow pattern with variable temperatures and a couple shower threats from passing disturbances, but dry weather most of the time.

54 thoughts on “Sunday June 6 2021 Forecast (7:57AM)”

  1. Thanks TK.

    TK – Will you be forecasting your temps a little higher from now on due to Logan’s “off” thermometer until they decide to correct it?

    With your forecast temps of 91-98 for tomorrow, Logan could conceivably reach their first “100” degrees of the year/season, as inaccurate as it would probably be.

    1. No. I forecast the temps based on what I think they will be, not based on what I think a bad thermometer will tell you it is. Also, the WHW forecast area is quite vast in comparison to Logan’s relatively microscopic piece of real estate. 🙂

  3. Good morning and thank you TK.

    Is 100 degrees in play over the next 3 days?
    With a SW wind, likely to fall a bit short. Worth watching
    anyway.

  5. I have some concern for students and staff Monday – Wednesday of this week.

    Very warm weekend leading into a very hot Monday. Then, followed by very warm, but very humid Tuesday and Wednesday.

    Very warm school buildings can make for uncomfortable days and of course, all students and staff will have a face-mask on.

    2. Sutton will have two snow days next year and the remainder will be remote. I think we often forget heat. Maybe the same could apply in this case

      1. so so, thanks. This damn heat does not help.
        Installed an AC yesterday, and 1 or 2 more today.

  9. Temp story of the day is the heat all the way to the south coast and onto Cape Cod, with a more westerly breeze.

    Save for Chatham, Cape reporting low-mid 80s at 11am. Mid-upper 80s on South Coast.

  10. In a combo of late spring / early summer, we have a bit of both going on in the eastern US now with the heat in the North and relatively “cooler” (though quite humid) conditions in the South where there is a lot more cloud cover. Lots of 90s & lower 100s in the North & mostly 80s in the South. This is not all that unusual, to be perfectly honest. But the set-up is not typically long-lasting.

    1. Upper low sitting under a 500 mb ridge.

      Very common. Impressed though by the temps in this particular setup, though I do suppose so close to the solstice, its going to be a hot and warm setup, as opposed to say mild and cool.

  11. I don’t like the current WSW wind. If that holds temps could get higher, Hope it is an obs time wind and it reverts back to SW.

    1. I think the disturbance that gave northern New England storms yesterday kind of briefly ¨flattened¨ out the ridge and as a result, getting more of a westerly sfc wind today.

      If I´m interpreting the models correctly, looks like the ridge re-asserts itself in the next 48 hrs for an eventual turn of the wind back to more SW.

    2. 850 mb temps progged to be 17-18 C, perhaps a touch higher.
      That would represent highs of 90-92, but I suspect the high temps today will be in the mid 90s and perhaps a tad higher.

      from NWS

      Morning soundings at Albany and Long Island
      showed mainly dry adiabatic lapse rates up to 650-mb, but with
      small inversions near 800-mb. Equiv 850-mb temps from the
      inversion base would be around 16-17C, supporting max temps
      around 90. Breaking the inversion and allowing for deeper mixing
      to 700-mb would generate equiv temps of around 20 or 21C,
      supporting max temps in the mid 90s and possibly a few upper
      90s.

  12. Hi all, lurker coming out of the lurker woods.

    TK, I know a bit too early to ask this but will be “that person” anyways. As of right now, what is your feeling towards rain on the 12th? Your unsettled weather comment has me a bit worried! I work at a dance studio and we’re having our recital outdoor that day (stage is covered but not audience. And they will be sitting on chairs in grass). We have the day after as a rain date but that’s about all we can do.

    Crossing my fingers as we could not have our recital last year and I’d hate to see the kids bummed out all over again (although obviously we cannot control the weather )

    3. I’m not overly worried about it right now. Today’s medium range guidance trend is a bit drier than previously. We’ll keep a close eye on it.

      1. Thanks TK and Vicki.
        And good luck to your daughter, Tom!. All these kids worked so hard while wearing masks all year, they deserve to be able to show off their hard work!

  13. Back in the “pre-pandemic” days, did schools close for intense heat, or was that just for extremely cold days of winter? I forget.

    Actually given that most students haven’t seen each other in over a year in most cases, hot classrooms might not feel so bad, relatively speaking. Just a thought.

  14. Here in CT there were school districts that would have early dismissal for heat but never closed for heat.

  15. Thanks TK. 93F on the car thermometer here in Watertown CT. Feels hotter today at the softball tournament but thankful again for the breeze.

    Bombers are 5-0 in the tournament and going to the championship game!

    1. Great to hear about your daughter’s team. Looks like they’re a juggernaut, unlike their name counterparts in the Bronx. Though your Islanders look solid, physical, and a real challenge to the Bruins. What a place to play hockey, by the way; old school Nassau Coliseum. The arena was rocking and sounded like it did in the early 1980s.

      Thanks for sending the Killington shot. You don’t know how happy I am to see snow – if only on a picture – on a day like today. Just ran 7 miles to try and acclimate. BP down to 74 over 44 with high heart rate upon my return home. It’ll recover, but bodies were not meant for this heat.

  17. A little bit more westerly wind was good news today as it dried the air out by four to six degrees dew point wise. Some locations that had dew points in the middle 60s early this morning now have them in the upper 50s. Certainly not dry crispy air but not nearly soupy either…

    I noticed Boston’s ob is missing at the moment. I did mention the suspected issue to NWS today but I’m not sure if that has anything to do with it. I don’t think that they will have anybody out there that quickly, but you never know.

        1. I believe that data for Boston is a buoy in the inner harbor (Station BHBM3 – 8443970 – Boston, MA )
          and not the one 16 NM East of Boston (Station 44013 (LLNR 420) – BOSTON 16 NM East of Boston, MA). Ave. for this date is 54.65 according to the 30 year data I’ve downloaded.

          Current Water temp at Boston Buoy. 61.9

          https://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=44013

  19. 93 in Sutton with the DP hanging strong at 61. A lovely hot breeze. Areas of north framingham received a reverse 911 call to day their power would be off for 2-3 hours. Areas of Sudbury also from what I’m hearing. Wonder if rainshine is impacted. I do miss seeing rainshine here

  20. Thanks, TK:

    Our max today was 94.5

    Can you predict the Wet Bulb Globe Temperature (WBGT)?
    If so, can someone tell me what it will be around 2 pm tomorrow?

    Our school will be hosting a regional track and field meet tomorrow afternoon and the MIAA now has a Heat Modification Policy.

    It the WBGT is above 86.1, there can be no practices, games or meets.

  21. Mark congratulations to your daughter. Tough weather to play in.

    Captain good luck tomorrow.

  22. Kids (both girls and families) are reporting 89 to 91 in Marshfield and Scituate depending where they are. But said a nice breeze.

  23. Thanks Joshua and Vicki. The girls won the championship game 4-2. They also ended up winning the tournament in Coventry RI a few weeks ago so that’s two in a row. They really do have a great team and are having a lot of fun out there.

    Wished a few times I was laying on that swath of snow at Killington today. It was a hot one. Tomorrow is worse and I see the NWS has issued heat advisories for heat index of 95-100. Just got word the kids are getting an early release here tomorrow. Tuesday is the last day of school anyway so I’m sure they aren’t missing much!

    1. Worcester is three hours early Monday and Tuesday. Masks play a big part in this … as Tom thought they might

    1. Water temps can change a few degrees in a day based on circulation. Over the long term, they tend to change slowly.

      You can use the analogy of body weight of a human can change up to 4 or 5 pounds in one day based on water retention, but their overall body weight doesn’t change that quickly over a period of days…

      1. Not to mention fluctuations between day and night when
        the water is no longer heated by the sun. I check the
        water temperature almost daily and there is almost always
        a difference between first thing in the morning and mid to late afternoon. (When the sun is out).

        1. Yes, there is a diurnal range in the water, but just much less than that of the air most of the time.

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