Friday March 11 2022 Forecast (7:48AM)

33 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (MARCH 11-15)

A quick note for early morning readers: There are some fog and freezing fog areas over parts of southeastern MA and RI and some of this is resulting in black ice. There are also patches of black ice where yesterday’s snowmelt did not dry up completely, so keep an eye out for that until about mid morning. After that any fog will be gone and the temperature will have risen enough to eliminate any icing issue. For the remainder of today, high pressure now offshore will allow an increasing southerly air flow and we’ll turn milder with more clouds, but still some sun as well – not a bad day. There are some adjustments to the details of the impact of our Saturday storm system. The boundary that this developing low will be moving along is going to be further east and moving with less delay than previously expected. So the low center, previously expected to be turning quite strong as it tracked just west of our area, will in fact be strengthening a little more slowly as it tracks across far southeastern New England (probably Cape Cod), and intensifying more rapidly just after it passes. The end result is less wind ahead of it, and an event that does start as rain for the entire region, but has a rain/snow line that progresses eastward during the course of the event. However, the bulk of the moisture will have already come through as this process takes place, so this will limit how much snow falls, even back to the west where amounts will be greater than to the east. Still, a quick temperature drop as the system departs can result in some freeze-up of untreated surfaces Saturday night into Sunday, so keep an eye out for that. Also, we’ll be dealing with much colder air and gusty wind into Sunday, despite a return to dry weather. The winds will settle down by Monday, which will be a dry and milder day as high pressure dominates. That high heads offshore Tuesday and a frontal system approaching from the west as its parent low moves by to our north may produce a rain shower Tuesday. Also, a reminder that at 2:00 a.m. Sunday we make the switch from standard time to daylight saving time.

TODAY: Areas of fog and freezing fog RI and southeastern MA early morning. Partly sunny. Highs 47-54. Wind SW-S increasing to 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Clouding over. Rain arriving overnight. Lows 40-47. Wind S-SE 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY: Cloudy. Rain, changing to snow from west to east during the day. Snow accumulation by evening up to 2 inches in higher elevations of southwestern NH and north central MA with generally a coating to 1 inch at most. Temperatures fall 40s to 30s. Wind SE-E 5-15 MPH early morning, shifting to N-NW 10-20 MPH except Cape Cod where they stay SE for longer before shifting later, with higher gusts possible.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Chance of snow showers evening. Lows 18-25. Wind NW 15-25 MPH, gusts over 30 MPH. Wind chill falling below 10.

SUNDAY: Sun and passing clouds. Highs 33-40. Wind NW 15-25 MPH, gusts over 30 MPH. Wind chill below 10 in the morning.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 18-25. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 47-54. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 35-42. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of a rain shower. Highs 51-58 except cooler South Coast / Cape Cod. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (MARCH 16-20)

A little milder pattern overall but still some variability in temperatures. A couple of low pressure systems may bring some unsettled weather but it’s difficult to time these systems this far in advance. The vernal equinox occurs at 11:33 a.m. on Sunday March 20 – the start of spring.

DAYS 11-15 (MARCH 21-25)

We will continue to see some battling of early spring warmth to our south and lingering cold of winter to our north, leaving us vulnerable to temperature changes and a couple bouts of unsettled weather heading into late March.

33 thoughts on “Friday March 11 2022 Forecast (7:48AM)”

  3. Thanks TK. Two quick questions. How much rain do you expect and do you have an upper level for winds in the Natick area?

  14. Hello from the UK-

    Ignore the kuchera maps. They are useless with the rapid upper and mid level cooling, but limited substantive low level and 2m temp change. It is March. The only molded generated maps that might help are positive change or snow depth. Even better will be good meteorologists not beholden to ad dollars.

    West of the east slopes of the Berkshires this is a 0-2″ event and gone by Tuesday.

    1. Thanks JMA! Based on your last statement, can we assume then no more than a quick coating east of the CT Valley?

    1. Do you mean how quickly does any frozen stuff on Sunday disappear? Or are you talking about the seasonal thaw?

      1. Just how quickly the ground begins to thaw out. Not sure how deep the freeze went and how much the recent warmer temps will cut into that. On a negative anecdotal note, our dog seems to be having little trouble digging holes in our front yard.

        On another note, just read Judah Cohen pushing tomorrow’s storm as a bomb cyclone. From information I have seen, rain will be an inch plus or minus and winds are not crazy dangerous at peak gusts of 40-45 where most people live. Snow will also be minimal around here. Admittedly these numbers do not cover the whole state and I may be missing something or maybe the definition is being met, though any super intensification (pressure dropping sharply) seems to be taking place after the storm passes Boston.

        He is the expert and I am trying to learn but just wondered if I was missing something about this weekend’s storm.

        1. I hate the term “bomb cyclone” especially because it’s used as a hype tool. We need to just go back to saying “rapidly strengthening” or “rapidly deepening”.

          And yes, most of the “bombing out” will take place after it goes by here. It’ll just be starting to undergo the process as it goes by, and it’s moving very rapidly.

          J.C. can use whatever term(s) he wants, but I think it could have been left out unless you’re talking about Maine and eastern Canada.

          I did a write-up on a Facebook page I admin and I went into what was important about the system, not what “sounds exciting to say”. Ugh. Overkill.

          As far as the ground … we’re a bit ahead, so depending on location, next couple weeks and things should be pretty well thawed out. We can still get pretty cold but it doesn’t persist long enough to maintain frozen ground here in southeastern New England.

        2. My son in laws here just said the frost here is pretty much gone. I pulled a couple of rods out that were holding our deer decorations and didn’t have any problems.

  16. First crocus just popped up here. It is minuscule. We are behind and I do expect the ground was either too wet or never froze enough. We should be seeing a number of them
    now.

    1. I love that sign of “hope” lol. I really get sick of winter this time of year. Saw some too Vicki on my walk this week. First thing I thought of was “my pool”!

      1. We need hope all around and your comment has me smiling. I put a candle in my window two years ago tomorrow. For hope. I never dreamed then that it would still be lit two years and a few new light bulbs later. I think I’ll head out in a bit and thank my little yellow flower of hope in the garden

    1. What I find fascinating about this storm is how NYC got clobbered with nearly 2 feet of fluffy snow and Boston barely got a foot, of sloppy wet snow no less. This was a rare snow event that NY beat Boston.

      Thanks Jimmy for remembering!

  18. Another big storm that comes to mind the same time the Blizzard of 1888 happened is the March 1993 Superstorm.

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