Thursday June 22 2023 Forecast (7:36AM)

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DAYS 1-5 (JUNE 22-26)

I don’t have many adjustments to make to yesterday’s discussion and forecast. On the large scale, we remain in a transitional but somewhat repeating pattern. Transient Rex block (high pressure eastern Canada / US Northeast with low pressure to the south southwest of this region) moves into a transient omega where the trough to our southwest becomes the eastern member of a pair of upper level lows (Ohio Valley and West Coast to Rockies initially). But this pattern will be transitional, as in not generally stationary upper features but ones that progress eastward, albeit not at the same speeds. The easternmost low takes its time drifting eastward through this coming weekend while the one further west is moving along more swiftly, and the reason the “omega” setup is short-lived is because the western upper low catches up and overtakes the eastern one in the Northeast by early next week. What sensible weather to we get as a result of all of this. In summary: An unsettled overall pattern lacking any real heat, but not lacking humidity. We start today again with some areas of stratus, most of it set to dissipate as the sun rises higher into the sky, but look for increasing high to mid level clouds from the south north. Why? A warm front will approach today into Friday and likely take until late Friday to get full through the region. I’m not expecting widespread rainfall from this feature, as initially it will battle dry air, and some previous model forecasts of a rainy Thursday afternoon/evening will not come to fruition. Some sprinkle/rain may work into the South Coast and a few areas south of I-90 by this evening, but not enough to cancel any outdoor plans you have. Some patchy rain moves up through the region tonight and when we get to Friday it’s more a domination by clouds and not so much by rain, with just a few passing showers possible as the warm front works its way across the region. If there are any heavier showers Friday they are more likely to occur in the western reaches of the WHW forecast area (toward the Connecticut Valley). Despite the inability to really heat up as the warm front passes due to the abundant cloud cover, you will notice the humidity spike up. And the higher humidity is to be with us through the coming weekend and Monday as well. During this time, we’ll see the upper low to our west meander a bit and then edge eastward, making it close to the region by Sunday, while the second low will be playing catch up and reach the Great Lakes / Midwest by Monday. Along with the aforementioned higher humidity we’ll also see shower and thunderstorm chances this weekend and Monday, but I suspect Saturday’s activity will be more on the isolated to scattered side, favoring Cape Cod early in the day and interior areas mostly well west and northwest of Boston from the afternoon through evening, so Saturday itself may not really be that bad a day with warmer temperatures and the chance for more sun, as long as you don’t mind the humidity increase. Shower and thunderstorm chances increase Sunday and Monday, but there will be a diurnal component to them, with most numerous activity likely reserved for the afternoon and early evening hours. And while it will certainly not be raining all the time any of these days, any rainfall that occurs has the potential to be heavy.

TODAY: Partly to mostly cloudy. A light shower possible South Coast later and anywhere south of I-90 by evening. Highs 70-77, coolest coast. Wind SE up to 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. A few light showers around. Lows 60-67. Wind S up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy. Isolated showers. Highs 71-78, coolest South Coast. Dew point passing 60. Wind SE-S 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Scattered showers evening. Areas of fog. Lows 62-69. Dew point 60+. Wind S up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Partly sunny. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms, favoring Cape Cod early and eastern CT / central MA / southwestern NH later. Highs 77-84. Dew point 60+. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Isolated showers. Patchy fog forming. Lows 62-69. Dew point 60+. Wind S up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Mostly cloudy. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms, favoring the afternoon hours. Highs 75-82. Dew point 60+. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Scattered showers and thunderstorms early. Areas of fog. Lows 62-69. Dew point 60+. Wind S up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Mostly cloudy. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms, favoring the afternoon hours. Highs 75-82. Dew point 60+. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JUNE 27 – JULY 1)

Upper level low pressure traverses the region from west to east into the middle of next week with shower and thunderstorm chances and high humidity through June 28, then as a weak ridge moves in behind the departing low expect a drying trend and slightly warmer conditions June 29 through July 1.

DAYS 11-15 (JULY 2-6)

While this forecast is still low confidence, the trend is similar to the thinking of yesterday. A weak block may reappear with high pressure north and low pressure south, but displaced a little more so the high is further east and low further southwest. Placement and oscillation of features would determine day to day weather but the overall idea for now is a little drier and temperatures that run near to slightly below normal with a tendency for more large scale flow off the Atlantic instead of a land breeze. This would prevent major heat through the holiday period.

61 thoughts on “Thursday June 22 2023 Forecast (7:36AM)”

  7. Thanks, TK.

    I like to have an almost constant flow of natural air coming into the apartment, even in winter unless it’s really cold outside. Normally, however, from late May through late August I only open the windows briefly in the morning and it’s hardly ever to cool things down. Thus far this year I’ve kept my windows open all day and every day. It’s cooled things down at night and in the morning, and even with the increased humidity it’s never felt uncomfortable.

    I call it September in June. While the light suggests otherwise, the weather itself has been quite September-like.

    1. I feel the same. I have windows in front of house facing the deck slider on the back and love the air going through. While upstairs has been using AC, I’ve used only fresh air with only a few exceptions.

  10. Yesterday, I brought up a hot day in Goose Bay, Newfoundland. TK mentioned their all time record high of 104F on July 4, 1944.

    Boston, on that date, wherever they were taking the temp, hit 78F. Sounds a little similar.

    Anyhow, while I was in the climate data base, I was curious as to the rest of summer in 1944 in Boston.

    Well, august had some hot weather after an unremarkable July temp wise.

    A 99F on August 5th and then an 8 day heatwave from Aug 10-17th.

    The highs were: 90F, 99F, 101F, 100F, 97F, 98F, 97F and 97F.

  13. Today’s tweets from Simon Knott include his bicycle journey in Suffolk County, England, to numerous (mostly) medieval churches. His day started out sunny, but is now threatening to rain as you can see in the very latest tweet and picture (storm clouds above). There have been quite a few powerful thunderstorms in Eastern England and the Netherlands in recent days. https://twitter.com/last_of_england

  17. Based on the 1944 temperatures Tom posted above, perhaps August 2023 will have the intense heat? Sounds like summer of 1944 had a similar pattern. I would be curious what May and June of that year was like.

    Those August 1944 temperatures seem awful even by today’s standards with A/C most everywhere. Must have been horrible with probably no real relief even at local beaches.

  20. South Shore Yogi is in Scituate now. I don’t blame him/her one bit for enjoying the south shore.

  22. Stiff east wind at times on my daily jog. A little warmer in Cambridge than Boston, I think. At least that’s what it felt like while I was running.

  23. The sun has been out here for couple hours. A good wrong with the forecast today as it was calling for cloudy and off and in showers.

  25. As JJ noted, last night’s TV forecasts were not accurate. It’s been sunny all day in Boston. Frankly, fewer clouds than yesterday, at least during my 90 minute runs on both days.

    Speaking of forecasts and their importance (and the need to heed warnings). Yesterday’s Red Rocks concert in Colorado should NOT have gone ahead as scheduled. It should have been postponed. There was ample warning. This could have gone very badly. https://twitter.com/DenverChannel/status/1671764245044920324

    1. There was a lot of model following I’ve noticed. Same model that I discarded that was originally forecasting today as a rainy day. It had me a little bit nervous initially and then it was obvious that it was barking up the wrong tree.

      To be fair, the clouds are increasing even much more slowly than I thought they would today. I figured we would be mostly cloudy by now but it just shows you that the guidance not gospel and the meteorology not modelology things that I say all the time are very true.

      I still see a lot of stuff in media where somebody is talking about individual showers being shown by models 3 days in advance. You cannot do that and be accurate for any reason other than luck.

      Even though we have a good TV market here in the city I think lately the push to fill certain slots in certain ways has resulted in a lot of inexperienced people being tossed in front of the camera. In my opinion this is not fair to them or the viewers.

      And I’m not being insensitive here. It’s just the result of the method being used. But I understand what’s going on and it’s just something that has to happen. They need to gain experience somehow, but in the process there can be some forecasts that don’t work out so well. Even though I don’t think it should be compromised all that much for weather information, which is very important. So it’s finding the balance I guess.

      Regarding the Red Rock situation. Hail storms like that are not entirely unusual at all. But the vast vast vast majority of them occur over a place that is not a packed concert venue right at the time of the show. It’s important to keep these things in perspective.

      The weather forecast was calling for thunderstorms with the possibility of significant and large hail. This was a fail by the venue.

  26. The Oceangate passengers and crew have died. The sub suffered “catastrophic implosion”.

    It is now “search & recovery”. 🙁

  27. I was just looking at the GFS again .. hadn’t paid a lot of attention to it recently as it’s been essentially useless.

    Current status: Still useless. I’m so disappointed that the problems with this model have not been addressed. 🙁

    In all the years I’ve forecast the weather using the models as a guide, based on the level of technology and ability we were at, THIS version of the GFS is the most disappointing model I have ever seen, with the possible exception of the NOGAPS model that was prominent in the 1990s as a tool and was run until 2013 when it was replaced by the NAVGEM (another one I never used). Basically if you went opposite to what model’s forecast was for a given place and time, you had a better than even chance of being correct. 🙂 And I had a work partner who swore by it. Ouch! (Probably because it was a Navy model and he was in the Navy – but no bias there hahaha.)

  28. One more item, I want to get more detailed but I can’t yet.
    There are some positive developments regarding my brother. I’ll share those as soon as I can! 🙂

  30. On the musician topic. I joined some friends tonight for the Johnny Cash features concert on Sutton Common. The performer was Matt York from Pembroke!!

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