Thursday January 9 2025 Forecast (6:43AM)

81 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (JANUARY 9-13)

The large low pressure area in Atlantic Canada continues to drive cold air into our region on a gusty wind. A disturbance moving through from north to south will cause some snow showers this morning and midday which can result in minor accumulation of snow in some areas, otherwise we stay mainly dry through Friday. Low pressure passes well south of New England Saturday but patches of light snowfall are expected here from a disturbance moving through north of that low from the west. A narrow area of high pressure will bring fair, cold weather for Sunday before another low approaches from the west on Monday with an increase in clouds.

TODAY: Partly sunny. Scattered snow showers likely with minor spotty accumulation. Highs 23-30. Wind N to NW 15-30 MPH with gusts 35-45 MPH. Wind chill below 20 often, below 15 at times.

TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 11-18. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Partly cloudy. Highs 27-34. Wind NW 10-20 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Increasing clouds. Lows 13-20. Wind N up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Cloudy. Periods of light snow – accumulation up to 1 inch possible. Highs 23-30. Wind N up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Lows 14-21. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 28-35. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 12-19. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY: Increasing clouds. Highs 27-34. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JANUARY 14-18)

A disturbance / weak low brings a snow shower chance January 14, otherwise a dry and cold pattern much of next week.

DAYS 11-15 (JANUARY 19-23)

Early to mid period snow potential, followed by dry weather. Temperatures below normal, and may include a significant shot of arctic air.

81 thoughts on “Thursday January 9 2025 Forecast (6:43AM)”

  5. Thanks, TK!

    The wind continues to be relentless. I drove to North Dartmouth and back yesterday afternoon and my little Corolla was all over the road!

  6. Thanks TK
    Different day same story where I am windy and feeling like the single digits and teens.

  7. I think the wind will actually help avoid road accumulation where the snow showers are “heaviest” .. not particularly heavy, but it’s heavy enough here to reduce visibility at the moment.

    Can’t rule these out until about early afternoon – last band may actually be a N-S parallel to wind band out by I-495, maybe I-95. We’ll see if/where that sets up.

  10. Snowing moderately here now and already a dusting on grass and roads but not much wind at the moment.

    1. That batch just touched the city with the Eastern end. Looked
      a tad meaty to the West. 🙂

  12. I can’t believe the amount of conspiracy theories about CA and the fires. It’s going to be a long few years. People need to be sympathetic, what happened to us as humans.

    2. Absolutely heartbreaking. Tens of thousands of people have lost everything. The very last thing they need are the lies some are spreading. We have lost our way, and I pray we find our north. Soon.

  13. This morning’s HRRR does NOT even show the snow
    that is actually falling. BAD HRRR! BAD HRRR!!!

  22. Solid dusting in Reading MA.

    Between the wind and the super dry air, most of the very light amounts that fall will be gone by the end of the day, having blown away and sublimated.

  23. Thanks TK.

    22F here in Coventry and nothing but cold, windy, brown tundra outside.

    Just looking at the 0z Euro and 12z GFS and both agree (although with different evolutions) that the pattern gets active from around 1/19-1/20 on. Precip threats showing up every other day from about MLK day on. Of course with the deep cold pattern relaxing a bit and storm track coming north, we may be dealing with p-type issues in parts of the region for some of these systems. But at least we still have climatology going for us being not far off the coldest time of year and the sun angle will still be relatively low.

  24. These relentless winds have been affecting lift operations at the ski areas up north but the silver lining is that the spine of the Greens has been receiving persistent upslope snows. Killington, Sugarbush, and Jay Peak have reported accumulating snow every day this month so far with Jay Peak receiving 31″ in the last 7 days. Skiing will be good and many of the central/northern VT resorts should be 90-100% open this weekend.

    Areas in NH and Maine further east do not cash in much in these setups and could really use a good dumping of snow. Sugarloaf and Sunday River Maine are less than 50% open and have reported little new snow in the last week.

    1. Was just gonna mention this. The winds have really put a damper on things. Some resorts have been limited in their snowmaking due to the water sources being so low from the fall drought.

      1. We didn’t have the snowmaking problem, but I remember lifts closing one time. Great excuse to spend the afternoon in front of a fire in the lounge.

  25. If we don’t get enough precipitation in the next few months could we have brush fire issues as early as mid March?

  26. Thanks, TK. We had a dusting of snow around 6:00 a.m. today in Sudbury but that disappared fast. Now just some dim sunlight and as usual, gusts of wind.

  27. Thanks TK, I think about 1,036 tiny flakes fell here on the south coast, The dry streak continues…a nice break from the December deluge. My sump pump gets a nice break. The length of cold and wind has been pretty impressive. Last time I was outside for an extended period was barbecuing steaks on New Years Day.

  32. CPC below normal most of country 8-14, but now has shifted to an above normal precip pattern here to go along with the cold.

    They once again have zero areas of above normal across the entire lower 48.

      1. I believe we’ll have a few opportunities during the final 11 days of January and this may extend into the first week or so of February before we get a lull…

  34. ECMWF — 50th Birthday!

    I posted a few days ago that the ECMWF has been around for 50 years as of 2025 (Can’t remember when I first looked at it.) I think it was conceived in the early 1970’s and became a “thing” in 1975 and started making forecasts in ’78 or ’79. Daily forecasts started either in ’80 or’81. There are a number of events planned as part of a celebration. (link below)

    It has evolved in its own right … sometimes for the better and sometimes not so much. In recent times, it has become a user of and a contributor to Google’s AI weather models as well as being involved with machine learning. I think it uses GraphCast and has contributed in some way to GenCast … not that these would ever replace the Euro or any other current model in the near term.

    I also posted that maybe the model has lost some luster from the days when we called it The King but in the same breath I referred to it as a survivor. It’s tough to last 50 years in the world of computing unless you are committed to a philosophy making changes and advances.

    https://www.ecmwf.int/en/about/media-centre/stories/anniversary

  35. NWS map for the next event indicates <1" for most of the area with 1-2" forecast for northeastern MA & the NH Seacoast.

    My thought is 1/2 to 1 1/2" with locally around 2". Basically the same idea.

    Summation: Coating to 2 inches, with 2 being the exception rather than the rule.

  36. How did I miss that Pete is the chief met for NBc10. Wayyyyyyyy past due and I am beyond happy for him.

      1. I can’t tell what that is replying to but did you also not know Pete has been promoted?

  37. https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=qpf_acc-imp&rh=2025010912&fh=384&r=us_sw&dpdt=&mc=

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=ecmwf_full&p=qpf_acc-imp&rh=2025010912&fh=360&r=us_sw&dpdt=&mc=

    I don’t think an atmospheric river event would be good but you’d hope for a gentle rain system soon, but not in the cards.

    But, hopefully that Santa Ana setup with low pressure in northern Baja and high pressure to the north won’t set up as vigorously again.

  39. Look at this from the NWS in Little Rock, talk about a range.

    “Additional snow accumulations between 1 and 9 inches and ice
    accumulations around two tenths of an inch”

  40. I heard earlier Little Rock only averages four inches of snow for the entire winter. They very well could get more of that with this storm system.

  41. Not a common write up for central NC, especially the surface temps that will allow the snow to accumulate immediately.

    Snow: The event will likely begin as predominantly snow and some
    sleet at the onset of precipitation moving in from the west
    beginning to reach the ground in the Triad around rush hour (4-6PM).
    Surface temperatures are expected to be initially above freezing,
    but will rapidly drop below 32 degrees as precipitation begins to
    reach the ground. Given the multiple days of very cold conditions,
    the ground will be sufficiently cold, with 4 inch soil temperatures
    mostly in the 30s this morning, which will allow for efficient and
    immediate accumulation of snow. This will be very atypical compared
    to a normal “Carolina`s winter event” where it would take a couple
    hours for accumulation to begin. Any untreated surface will likely
    become slick and hazardous to traverse. Along and north of the I-85
    corridor is most likely to remain mostly snow and sleet with
    accumulations of 2 to 4 inches are expected. Locally higher amounts
    will certainly be possible, especially where it remains all snow for
    the duration of the event.

    Freezing rain: Forecast confidence remains lowest with the freezing
    rain accumulations and location of greatest impacts. A majority of
    guidance has a swath of ice accumulations developing after midnight,
    as surface temperatures drop to below freezing in the insitu CAD
    regime that sets up at precipitation onset, however vary on its
    placement. Latest forecast leans heavily on the cooler guidance
    (ECMWF and Canadian) to lock in the CAD over a majority of our area
    with some surface temps rising above freezing in Cumberland,
    Sampson, and Wayne. This blend results in multiple hours of freezing
    rain accumulation from Wadesboro to Sanford and southern Wake County
    through Smithfield and Rocky Mount. This forecast solution results
    in 0.1″ to around 0.2″ in a 50-60 mile wide swath centered around
    this line. Within this band, locally higher amounts in excess of
    0.25″ will be possible and would result in more numerous power
    outages in the areas affected. Where this forecast may go wrong is
    if the insitu wedge doesn`t hold over the southern Piedmont,
    Sandhills, southern Piedmont and the central/southern Coastal Plain
    and southerly flow and gradual warming above freezing at the surface
    occurs, which would significantly narrow/lessen the freezing rain
    accumulations as a transition to all rain occurs.

    Sleet: In between the snow and freezing rain corridors will likely
    be a transition to mainly sleet for an hour or two, but may remain
    stationary for several hours as the warm nose ceases to spread
    farther north. This is most likely to occur perhaps along and just
    south of the I-85 corridor into the Triangle and cut into snowfall
    totals to closer to the 0.5″ to around 2″.

    By Saturday morning, precipitation will likely rapidly come to an end
    in the Triad by 4-6 AM, the Triangle by 5-7 AM, and exiting the
    Coastal Plain by 8 AM. Surface temperatures are expected to rise
    above freezing everywhere by 11 AM. West to northwest surface winds
    are expected to increase to 20 to 30 mph by late Sat morning, and
    depending on snow/ice accumulations that occur overnight, may
    increase the risk for continued power outages and may inhibit
    restoration efforts. Infrequent gusts to around 35 mph will be
    possible from the Triad eastward into the northern Coastal Plain.

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