DAYS 1-5 (JANUARY 17-21)
A sugar-dusting of snow fell in some areas overnight, and a little thicker coating in the South Coast region as a disturbance passed by the region. Today, high pressure noses in for a fair weather day and feeling fairly pleasant for mid January with above-freezing high temps and less wind. High pressure shifts offshore and a southerly wind increase for Saturday. But while this warms us up we end up cloudy as a cold front approaches. This front will bring a round of rain with the milder air in place Saturday late-day / early-night, before partial clearing arrives from west to east as the front pushes offshore. Colder air filters in Sunday, but we’ll have some diurnal temperature rise to overcome that along with some sun to start. But as colder air filters in from the north and west, clouds thicken back up as a low pressure wave rides up along the front that moved offshore the day before. This low pressure area will be moving quickly, but intensifying as it goes by, and this will result in a period of accumulating snow for Sunday evening to early Monday, with a widespread light to moderate snowfall expected. The lowest amounts are expected across Cape Cod and the Islands where some rain will be involved early on as the mild air holds on longest there. By the end of the event, we’ll be experiencing the onset of an arctic air invasion which will put us into the deep freeze late Monday and Tuesday, but with dry weather.
TODAY: Clouds give way to sun. Highs 30-37. Wind W up to 10 MPH.
TONIGHT: Clear evening. Increasing clouds overnight. Lows 21-28 evening. Temperatures rise slowly overnight. Wind W under 10 MPH evening, S 5-15 MPH overnight.
SATURDAY: Cloudy. Rain arrives late-day. Highs 40-47. Wind S 5-15 MPH, gusts 20+ MPH.
SATURDAY NIGHT: Cloudy with rain during the evening. Rain ends, clouds thinning overnight. Lows 32-39. Wind S 5-15 MPH, shifting to W.
SUNDAY: Limited sunshine in the morning, thicker overcast afternoon. Snow arrives late-day / evening except rain at first Cape Cod / Islands. Highs 35-42. Wind W up to 10 MPH shifting to N.
SUNDAY NIGHT: Overcast with snow except rain/mix changing to snow Cape Cod / Islands. Expected snowfall accumulation 3 to 6 inches, except 1 to 3 inches Cape Cod / Islands. Lows 18-25. Wind N 5-15 MPH.
MONDAY (MLK JR DAY): Sun/cloud mix. Highs 25-32 early, then falling through 20s. Wind N to NW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.
MONDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 3-10. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.
TUESDAY: Sunny. Highs 13-20. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.
DAYS 6-10 (JANUARY 22-26)
Dry and very cold middle of next week (Wednesday-Thursday) while another storm tracks out to sea to the southeast of New England. Follow up system brings a snow chance late next week (Friday and/or Saturday). Fair, cold weather returns end of next weekend.
DAYS 11-15 (JANUARY 27-31)
One or two additional opportunities for snow in a continued cold pattern to end January.
Good morning and thank you TK.
Nice call on the snow last night. You nailed that one and early as well. Nice little dusting here.
6z Nam has corrected as suggested by TK.
I see snow amount forecasts, but as of now I”m gping with 5-8 inches, subject to change. Perhaps warranting a Winter Storm watch and/or warning.
We shall see
Oh and not for nothing, but I swear I heard Pete say that we were in for a series of near misses.
That would strongly suggest more Suppression!!!
He didn’t really say they’d all be near-misses. The one that goes by during the arctic surge is to be a near-miss. After that, jury’s out.
I saw Pete and what he was suggesting was “active pattern” / “much to watch”.
That’s not exactly what I heard. Agree active pattern, but
he was quite clear that he thought there would be a bunch of misses. 🙂 Certainly something to watch.
TK, That was the gist of his Fb video. It was classic Pete.
I can’t share. He mentioned the bitter cold and also “close calls after Tuesday…. One, two, three..”
“Close calls” was the phrase, yes! And any met knows that we can’t be certain of hit or miss more than a few days out, so Pete was definitely speaking to the pattern, not specific misses. 🙂
Yes. And that was a direct quote from his FB video.
Thanks TK !
That’s the perfect description (sugar-dusting) of snow is what happened overnight.
Happy Friday everyone !!
Agree. I love that description!
https://radar.weather.gov/ridge/standard/KBOX_loop.gif
Neat little feature just off shore this morning.
Thanks TK.
6z GFS still very bullish for Sunday night with a general 6-12” across SNE
https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=snku_acc-imp&rh=2025011706&fh=108&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=
6z RDPS still high and tight with 6-12” inland but delivering rain SE of a Hartford to Worcester to Lowell line
https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=rdps&p=snku_acc-imp&rh=2025011706&fh=84&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=
NAM as Dave said is slowly starting to come around and now showing a general 2-5”
6z Euro is similar to 0z and not as bullish as GFS, showing more of a 2-4/3-5” type deal..
6z ICON with moderate accumulations ranging from 2” SE MA to 6” northern Worcester County:
https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=icon&p=snku_acc-imp&rh=2025011706&fh=120&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=
Still going with 5-8 inches. Waiting on the 12Z runs. 🙂
https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/goes/sector_band.php?sat=G16§or=can&band=09&length=24
The easy to see energy north of MN and ND is the Saturday system (I believe).
I think the Sunday night northern stream piece, which is harder to see, is across eastern Washington State and northern Idaho.
https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=hrrr&p=ref1km_ptype&rh=2025011712&fh=48&r=conus&dpdt=&mc=
At 48 hrs, HRRR is simulating the system in its infancy.
Thank you, TK!
Thank you TK!
Happy Friday to the WHW community!
The 12Z NAM is still NOT there yet. Shows some signs, but
NOT enough.
https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?rh=2025011712&fh=63&dpdt=&mc=&r=us_ne&p=ref1km_ptype&m=nam
Kuchera snow
https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=nam&p=snku_acc-imp&rh=2025011712&fh=75&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=
3KM NAM, on the other hand, is a little more tuned in
https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=nam4km&p=ref1km_ptype&rh=2025011712&fh=59&r=conus&dpdt=&mc=
https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=nam4km&p=ref1km_ptype&rh=2025011712&fh=60&r=conus&dpdt=&mc=
Snow with it NOT over yet
https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?rh=2025011712&fh=60&dpdt=&mc=&r=us_ne&p=snku_acc-imp&m=nam4km
Thanks TK
By far, not a powerhouse storm passing by.
Yet, whether it’s the storm being south of us or the wind going ageostrophic, the sfc winds are coming around pretty quickly to the N early in the event.
What’s your thinking down here Tom for us .
Perhaps mix or light rain at the start changing to snow.
I 100% agree with TK’s amts and would lean down here towards the 3-4 part of the range.
You both have good numbers . I’ll take the snow machine out incase I need it . I have a funny feeling on the rain , but I trust above .
Lines up with TK’s thoughts. 🙂
https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=nam&p=sfcwind_mslp&rh=2025011712&fh=60&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=
https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=nam4km&p=sfcwind_mslp&rh=2025011712&fh=60&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=
FWIW, the 6Z Euro
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2025011706/ecmwf_mslp_pcpn_frzn_neus_22.png
24 hour precip is NOT much
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=ecmwf®ion=neus&pkg=apcpn24&runtime=2025011706&fh=78
ratio????
The correct formula for figuring out the total MLK Day snowfall is simple.
Snowfall=P(Y−X=m|Y>X)=∑kP(Y−X=m,X=k|Y>X)=∑kP(Y−X=m|X=k,Y>X)P(X=k|Y>X)=∑kP(Y−k=m|Y>k)P(X=k|Y>X).
Please be sure to memorize this! Pop quiz later!!
🙂 🙂 🙂
And the answer is: FIIK !!!!!
I calculated this to be, as expected, 42 units. The trick is to find the correct units 🙂
Correct answer!
Wait. There is an answer?? My eyes are still spinning having read it…I applaud anyone who can go further.
Hilarious !!
12Z ICON Kuchera Snow. Big woof
https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=icon&p=snku_acc-imp&rh=2025011712&fh=78&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=
12Z RDPS still has NOT corrected
https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=rdps&p=prateptype-imp&rh=2025011712&fh=63&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=
Pretty juiced up, but UP NORTH!!!
https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=rdps&p=snku_acc-imp&rh=2025011712&fh=69&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=
LOL ….
We’d need heat advisories for the warm sector in SE Mass.
Seriously though ……
The Saturday milder system does drag a cool front through and slowly, colder, drier air should seep southeastward through southern New England, thus setting up the temp contrast just southeast of southern New England, thus, the storm track should be near the benchmark, not up through interior SE Mass.
I don’t buy the warm scenario.
Discussion from NWS
Given the considerable differences between the NAM/RGEM…there
remains plenty of uncertainty on the exact outcome. While no
solutions can be ruled out at this point…we are favoring the
GEFS/EPS Ensembles along with the UKMET that support a middle ground
with the wave of low pressure tracking near the Benchmark. This
solution would bring a period of accumulating/plowable snowfall
which may start as a brief period of rain. A very preliminary
snowfall forecast indicates that 2-6″ of snow is possible across a
good portion of the region…which is supported by the latest NBM
model. That is the most likely solution based on the current
data…but given that there still is a large spread in the models
this is not set in stone. There still is a low risk for little if
any snowfall if the storm track trends east like the NAM or a far
western solution like the RGEM…which would support mainly rain on
the coastal plain. There also would be a low probability for a swath
of over 6″+ of snow with a stronger low pressure system tracking
just inside the Benchmark. But right now odds favoring more on the
order of a 2-6″ type of snow for most locations…but probably less
towards the Cape/Islands where Ptype issues are more likely.
Early NWS snow map
https://www.weather.gov/images/box/winter/StormTotalSnowWeb.jpg
We’re two days out but stations are still holding back on putting out maps. Some have and here they are:
https://ibb.co/QprkZ1V
Thanks Doc. ALWAYS appreciate these.
Thank you very much. I share your maps with my family. They also thank you
GFS still looking nice
https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?rh=2025011712&fh=60&dpdt=&mc=&r=us_ne&p=prateptype_cat-imp&m=gfs
But then again, it’s the GFS
Kuchera Snow
https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=snku_acc-imp&rh=2025011712&fh=69&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=
14″ jackpot for me on the GFS, lol. Not happening!
Every time you post a snow storm that’s in advance of an upcoming snow event, it’s like you have a perfectly suitable girl you’re going steady with but you’re looking around for an upgrade. lol
Good one
I keep wondering if a strong flow from the NW will “push” the storm further south. I watched TV mets this AM. Even those that gave precise amounts seemed hesitant.
https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=prateptype_cat-imp&rh=2025011712&fh=96&r=conus&dpdt=&mc=
They will be at a standstill in the deep south if any of this verifies.
https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=prateptype_cat-imp&rh=2025011712&fh=102&r=conus&dpdt=&mc=
Low pressure in the Gulf of America.
It is and ALWAYS will remain GULF OF MEXICO as long as I am alive!@(@(!)#)(!@*#()*!@)(#*)(!@*#)(@!#)(!@)(
I’m 100% with you !!!!
I just can’t help it, it cracks me up every time I think of it.
It can be the Gulf of anything it wants if Canada wants to annex Massachusetts
For Sure!
Canadian STILL heading “home”!!!
https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?rh=2025011712&fh=60&dpdt=&mc=&r=us_ne&p=prateptype-imp&m=gdps
That GFS Gulf storm is the FIRST MISS with the newly entrenched Arctic Air!!!
https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=prateptype_cat-imp&rh=2025011712&fh=123&r=conus&dpdt=&mc=
Miss #2
https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=prateptype_cat-imp&rh=2025011712&fh=183&r=conus&dpdt=&mc=
Midweek one never had a chance to get up here. Still very much in the game for the second one late next week.
Miss #3, only to the WEST this time!
Can’t win!!!
https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=prateptype_cat-imp&rh=2025011712&fh=276&r=conus&dpdt=&mc=
Let me go out on a limb and say that an hour 276 projection on the operational GFS is probably not going to happen as projected 🙂
The followup midweek storm in the Gulf of America is intriguing with the frigid air entrenched right down to the coastline. That one is going to be interesting to watch with heavy snow and ice possible as far south as New Orleans, Savannah and the Panhandle of Florida.
That one will definitely end up a miss for us. The follow-up threat on the 24th/25th will bear watching…cold air will be relaxing and should provide an avenue for that system to head north up and off the northeast coast. 12z GFS showing a grazer right now for that one but the Euro had a direct hit on the last couple runs.
Yup, we’ll see.
UKMET for Sunday
https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?rh=2025011712&fh=63&dpdt=&mc=&r=us_ne&p=prateptype_ukmo-imp&m=ukmo_global
10:1 snow
https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=ukmo_global&p=sn10_acc-imp&rh=2025011712&fh=75&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=
I would think ratios would be better than 10:1? That is probably a 5-7″/low end warning scenario.
Agree. Same with Euro depiction.
Cindy has 3-6 but just said leaning towards higher end
12Z EURO 10:1 snow. Not much
https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=ecmwf_full&p=sn10_acc-imp&rh=2025011712&fh=72&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=
I wouldn’t make to much of future systems on the GFS ….
The current one it didn’t get a clue on until it got to only 72 hrs out.
So why trust anything it depicts 150+ hrs out ????????
Perhaps.
Definitely, not “perhaps”:)
fwiw, the Euro agrees. 🙂 so I stand with “perhaps”
Not actually, the Euro at 276 hours is cold and dry. It does have a storm post 300 hours on 1/31 that travels over us but still as depicted would be mostly a snow/ice event.
But I dont put any stock in any model operational runs at that time frame. Overall the pattern in both model ensembles looks good through month’s end IMO.
to = too
Channel 7: Widespread 3-5″ with possible isolated 6″ spots.
Yep, posted that in the graphic above! 🙂
Just for fun, the NWS high end (10% chance) snow
https://www.weather.gov/images/box/winter/SnowAmt90Prcntl.jpg
guess it’s not buying the 14″ on the GFS as the possible high end!
Pete from about 5 minutes ago
As he says….let’s go!
https://x.com/petenbcboston/status/1880334100244074799?s=61
🙂
We are leaving shortly to head up to snowy Sugarbush, VT for the weekend. I’ll try to check in and post a picture if we have some decent views. Fingers crossed the drive back Sunday evening isnt too much of a disaster.
Enjoy Mark! One of my favorites. They had a rough start but looks good for the foreseeable future.
Once upon a time I was at Sugarbush and was going to ski there, but instead moved up the road a bit to Stowe. So, never skiied
Sugarbush. Looked like a nice area. ENJOY!!!
What a great weekend. Enjoy. And wishes for safe travels home
Thanks all. They have cashed in on the upslope snow this season. 4 feet since New Years and 135″ on the season. Will be nice to hit it when it is 100% open.
Looks to me like the HRRR is going too far N&W
https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?rh=2025011718&fh=48&dpdt=&mc=&r=conus&p=ref1km_ptype&m=hrrr
Are models still confused due to the Ana-wave? And do these types of events usually overachieve?
Beats me. Looks like model mayhem to me.
The medium range guidance will struggle to pick them out, then place & time them beyond day 6 or 7. They will then struggle as is typical with track (though usually better with timing) in the day 4-6 range, and then get “better” inside day 4. The problem now is that the GFS model is overcooking precipitation while the ECMWF is slightly undercooking it, hence yesterday’s comment by me that my expectation is that the event will land somewhere between those 2 operational model depictions. The Canadian group is way left and way warm. I expect a correction there on the 00z run, certainly the 12z after that. Yesterday, I noted the NAM needed up to 2 runs to “find” the storm. It did in 2 runs and should be zoning in pretty well from here – barring any surprises. My idea remains the same.
Looks like the HRRR is in camp Canadian.
I’ll start giving the HRRR audience about 24 hours out.
Okey dokey. :)_
This afternoon’s NAM run is “just” outside its 48 hr. best range.
Hopefully it improves some over previous runs.
I would certainly like a little more model agreement at this point as we are getting closer.
NAM is more N&W as well. Do I detect a trend here??????
https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?rh=2025011718&fh=54&dpdt=&mc=&r=us_ne&p=ref1km_ptype&m=nam
You detect the 12km NAM being too far west for 1 run. Will be further east on 00z.
Turns out it was NOT , but not too far West. Farther West for sure, but since the rain snow line collapsed so fast, it was fine. 🙂 🙂
I suspect the track of the low center will be a little east of the 18z NAM’s projection.
would be good.
3KM NAM looks much better and the regular NAM collapses the rian/snow line SE
https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=nam4km&p=ref1km_ptype&rh=2025011718&fh=56&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=
NAM Kuchera Snow.
https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=nam&p=snku_acc-imp&rh=2025011718&fh=63&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=
We have a winter storm watch and a severe weather alert.
https://www.weather.gov/box/
https://forecast.weather.gov/wwamap/wwatxtget.php?cwa=BOX&wwa=winter%20storm%20watch
Also must be noted: The watch being issued further west does NOT mean the track is expected to shift much further west.
They issue these based on a combination of forecast confidence and maximum potential snowfall (higher end scenario).
The probability of 6+ outside the watch area is lower, as well as confidence based on the model spread, so they won’t issue the watch there for now.
Thank you, sir. Just came here to post links. You saved me the time.
3KM at hout 60
https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=nam4km&p=ref1km_ptype&rh=2025011718&fh=60&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=
Kuchera Snow (not complete)
https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=nam4km&p=snku_acc-imp&rh=2025011718&fh=60&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=
First Winter Storm Watch of the season for me.
18Z ICON snow
https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=icon&p=snku_acc-imp&rh=2025011718&fh=66&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=
RAIN Involved near the coast.
RDPS hasn’t really correct, although it nudged a bit farther
S&E
https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?rh=2025011718&fh=69&dpdt=&mc=&r=us_ne&p=snku_acc-imp&m=rdps
After watching wankum there is a lot of uncertainty it seems which way this thing is going to shift which will determine numbers
All I can say is that when it comes to snow amounts, I have bought into NOTHING. Looking for consistency in tomorrow runs one way or the other.
The inconsistency is baffling to me. I’m convinced we have way too much info at our fingertips now and models have been tinkered with so much that they are too sensitive to small changes. I feel like forecasting was better before all that.
AGREE. I have posted about this within the past week. I feel that the models today do a reasonable job, but have lost some of their luster. When was the last time we heard the ECMWF referred to as The King.
I can’t remember when we said Euro was King!!!!
I dunno, but I am getting a sense of a NW creep. Let’s hope it
goes no farther.
GFS looks awesome!
The flow from the NW is an issue. I wonder if it could suppress things to the south.
These things change with upgrades which can fix some things, but break others.
Ironically, the European model has been the most consistent for the longest on this system.
I currently lean toward a combo of its ensembles and the GFS ensembles for my snowfall forecast, which remains a general 3 to 6 inches (less on the Cape). Can someone go over 6? Certainly. I’ll pinpoint that, if I think it’s going to happen, on the next update.
Tk I still have a funny feeling on getting skunked down here , hope I’m wrong but I just have a feeling
Forecasting is just as good, if not better. But that depends on who is doing the forecasting and who is just following the models and flip flopping their info with every run of every piece of guidance.
But I will agree, there’s almost too much info. 🙂
18Z GFS
https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=prateptype_cat-imp&rh=2025011718&fh=54&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=
Snow
https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=snku_acc-imp&rh=2025011718&fh=66&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=
GIMMIE SOME OF THIS!!!!
The inconsistency is really just born of enhanced model biases and shortcomings, much of which is seen and adjusted for.
I don’t need the models to be right. I need them to be predictable in their inconsistency. Anticipated model error actually works most of the time. 🙂
Thank you. I wondered. So fun to follow and then look back on.
Latest maps from around the dial
https://ibb.co/Bwcgzsf
Thank you, Dr sir, and wow WBz
WBZ & NWS are still giving a lot of weight to the Canadian group of guidance. I’m more in with the others, but in my 3-6 general forecast I would allow for pockets or narrow bands of 6+. The rate of deepening of that low as it goes by should not be underestimated.
thank you. love seeing these.
someday, it woukf be nice to see these graded
You should give them the jpd official grade post storm!
With snow on the ground just makes the incoming artic blast seem worse.
Allen Media Group, which owns a bunch of TV stations, mostly in the Midwest, is letting go most local meteorologists (and news anchors) at many of their stations in favor of a “centralized news desk”, corporate style.
Pardon my harshness, but this is one dumb ass move. And what’s scary is it’s a trend in media, with more and more corporate control. How long until this makes its way to larger markets like Boston?
Yup, let’s boot all the experts that are really good at the areas they cover, especially in times of big storms or severe weather, in favor of some generic forecast for “everyone” from a central location, probably largely automated.
Yup, we’re heading in the right direction….. NOT.
Dumb ass doesn’t begin to be strong enough IMO. This country is a mess
18z ECMWF – same deal. Widespread 3-6 (1-3 Cape Cod).
1-3 here is also very likely as well
Definitely not looking like higher end . Changes so quick . Last night Plymouth county getting the hit & now it’s inland again !!!
3-6 for you.
Time will tell Tk & you know more than I do. What I’m seeing tonight by some of our local Mets they definitely don’t think the high end will be reached . I would be happy with 4 or 5 inches . I hope it’s still a go tomorrow as I said above I just don’t have a good feeling with this one down here & I want to be wrong
I know. Ch 5 has 1-3, so I get why you don’t buy my 3-6.
It’s not that at all .
I posted the correct formula for forecasting snowfall amounts at 10:05 AM today.
Just looked again Longshot I failed
I hope we get 3-6 down here as snow is a helpful insulator and it’s not great to have little snow on the ground when your looking at 2 days with a high of 15F and 2 nights with lows near 0F.
I hate that kind of cold , furnace goes like crazy . My house is quite drafty as I need to replace my current windows ( it’s on the long list )
JR says to focus on the “high” end of the 3-6” range. You don’t hear that from a tv met very often. ❄️ 🙂
For what area
For the region. I just watched him.
JR comes in a VERY close second to Pete for me. I miss them as a team. Both the nicest folks you’d ever want to know.
He said “right now he’d focused on higher end but it will probably need tuning”
https://whdh.com/weather/#watch-forecast
I saw him also. He has a large area in the 3-6 and said as of tonight he would lean towards the 6.
What channel is he on , the NBC 10
Vicki provided the link to it above.
48 hours. NAM and I are in general agreement.
The further NW track is not the right solution.
Whew! 😉
JR’s final words of the night…next storm starting next Friday night! ❄️ 🙂
One storm at a time.
Seen the 00z guidance.
Noooooooooooooooo changes to my forecast at this point! But there will probably be a pocket or band (or two) of 6+. Hoping by morning I have a better idea on that.
Well it’s the RGEM vs the rest.
Winter Storm watch ousted but leaves out 95 SE for now until the afternoon shift they said. Also could swing to a warning or advisory.
Good morning Hadi. Nice to see your name this morning.
Nice write up from the NWS
The main forecast challenge continues to be the likelihood of a
plowable snowfall late Sun into Sun night for much of the region.
Precipitation should develop by mid to late Sunday
afternoon…roughly between 2 and 6 pm continuing into Sunday night.
However…there remains tremendous spread amongst the models and
potential specific outcomes. We will break it down more below.
An anafrontal wave of low pressure in the Carolinas early Sun
morning will race northeastward. However…there is still
significant model differences on the track and intensity of the wave
of low pressure. The RGEM has continually been the strongest and
furthest northwest with this low pressure system. In fact…the
system tracks so close to the coast that Ptype would mainly be rain
across eastern MA/RI with heavy snow of 6″+ across the interior.
Meanwhile…the ECMWF and NAM have tended to be weaker and further
southeast with this low pressure system. This results in a colder
solution but with less QPF…so while Ptype would mainly be snow
northwest of the Cape Cod Canal it would be more of an advisory type
of event. The GFS/UKMET lean more towards the more amped up
solutions…albeit not quite as extreme as the RGEM. While there is
not a classic closed mid level low…the more amped solutions do
indicate a closed 850 mb low which would support at least a brief
period of strong frontogenesis/good ratio type of snow. This would
result in a period of 1-2″ per hour snowfall rates for a short
duration if it materialized.
Given the uncertainty that remains…we continue to blend a lot of
the guidance. We are thinking that this is a borderline Winter
Weather Advisory/Low End Winter Storm Warning. Thinking the greatest
risk for 4-8″ of snow is to the northwest of I-95. The storm is
fairly progressive..but if enough banding were to develop a low risk
would exist for localized 10″ snow amounts. Overall..we did not make
too many changes to the going forecast other than to expand the
Winter Storm Watch into northeast MA. Now if some of the more amped
up solutions tick a bit further southeast…later shifts may have to
consider expanding the Winter Storm Watches a bit further southeast.
Not enough confidence to do that right now given potential Ptype
issues with a stronger/further northwest track. At the same
time…the weaker more strung out solutions like the NAM/ECMWF would
result in Ptype being mainly snow northwest of the Cape Cod
Canal…but more of a 2-5″/3-6″ event for a large chunk of our area.
So in a nutshell…this event looks to be right on the cusp between
a Winter Weather Advisory/Winter Storm Warning setup. Again…we
opted to go with a Watch northwest of I-95…which should give later
shifts more flexibility in converting to an Advisory or upgrading to
a warning. The good news is that the accumulating snow will have
come to an end in time for the Monday morning commute.
However…temps well below freezing should result in untreated roads
being snow covered and slippery.
It would be a much better write up if Boston were included as well.
Keep in mind I was never going for a winter storm warning level snowfall for anybody initially, including Boston (3-6 initial call which brings them right to the limit if they got max).
The addition of higher totals inland is conditional and a result of being able to be more specific close to the event after tweaking the expected storm track (we’re working with a window-of-error of about 100 miles still, which makes a notable difference in snow amounts and a less notable difference if you melt it all down).
A nice “pretty in pink” sunrise this morning. Glad I was up early enough to witness it. 🙂
“Red sky in the morning, sailors take warning”.
This is going to take place 2 mornings in a row for 2 systems. 🙂
New post!