Tuesday July 14 2026 Forecast (7:20AM)

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DAYS 1-5 (JULY 14-18)

Today we turn up the heat and humidity but keep it breezy between high pressure to our south and a vigorous low pressure area moving across southeastern Canada. The latter will trigger strong to severe thunderstorms in southern Quebec and northern New England later today into this evening, but that activity will fade as it heads southward, surviving as a few showers and possibly a thunderstorm in to southern NH and northern MA Wednesday morning, and regenerating as mainly isolated showers and storms south of I-90 midday into afternoon Wednesday before its triggering frontal boundary pushes away. That boundary will serve to knock down the humidity Wednesday while it will still be fairly hot. Another front heads southward into the region on Thursday and can trigger a few more showers and thunderstorms mainly later in the day, but that day will not be as hot as Wednesday. The cooling trend will continue into Friday as the second front pushes through the region and off to the south. Currently, I expect Saturday to feature fair weather, though there may be some high and mid level clouds to contend with, however it should be quite comfortable to be outside that day.

TODAY: Smoke-filtered sunshine along with patchy clouds. Highs 74-81 Nantucket and Outer Cape Cod, 82-89 remainder of South Coast, 90-97 elsewhere. Dew point climbs to middle / upper 60s. Wind SW 10-20 MPH.

TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. An overnight shower or thunderstorm possible in southern NH and northern MA. Lows 66-73. Dew point 60+. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Partly sunny. A morning shower possible mainly in MA and then isolated midday to mid afternoon showers and thunderstorms possible south of I-90. Highs 80-87 Nantucket and Outer Cape Cod, 88-95 elsewhere. Dew point falls below 60. Wind W to NW 10-20 MPH, diminishing later in the day.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 63-70. Dew point sub-60. Wind NW up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Partly cloudy. A shower or thunderstorm possible mainly southern NH and eastern MA late afternoon or evening. Highs 83-90. Dew point briefly spikes 60+. Wind W 5-15 MPH, gusts over 20 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 60-67. Dew point falls to 50s. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Sun and passing clouds. Highs 78-85. Dew point stays in 50s. Wind N 5-15 MPH but with coastal sea breezes developing.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 58-65. Dew point 55 or lower. Wind N up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Variably cloudy. Highs 78-85, coolest coast. Dew point in 50s. Wind NE to E up to 10 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JULY 19-23)

Still leaning dry but watching for the chance of a disturbance being close enough for a shower threat on July 19, but more likely to see higher humidity and shower chances the first half of next week. Temperatures somewhat variable but around normal overall.

DAYS 11-15 (JULY 24-28)

Drier early through mid period before shower and thunderstorm chances increase later in the period. Temperatures near to above normal.

109 thoughts on “Tuesday July 14 2026 Forecast (7:20AM)”

  2. New Bedford, Taunton, Plymouth, Marshfield, Bedford, Lawrence, Norwood, Falmouth, Hyannis, Chatham, all 72 at 7:00 a.m. Don’t see that much uniformity very often.

    Meanwhile, Logan 75. Sticks out like a sore thumb. Actual temp there is a little under that. 😉

  7. Thanks TK
    Ryan Hanrahan chiming in on that severe threat for parts of northern New England today.
    ⚡️ An unusually significant severe weather event is expected across far northern New England and Quebec later today.

    ️ Destructive wind, large hail, and significant tornadoes are possible.

    1. You got the word. yay/ You probably should have thought with your stomach instead of your head. 🙂 🙂 🙂

    2. Ugh. Choices are So frustrating. But you got it and it gets you into any car you choose 😉

  10. The temperature rise this morning is very very slow.
    Will we ever reach the predicted highs by many? Pete had
    a big fat 98 for Boston. Unless things change rather dramatically, this looks unlikely.

    1. 81 at Logan and 79 at Norwood. Last week when it hit near 100, the temperature was at or approaching 90 by now. I am NOT complaining. The longer the heat is delayed, the better!!!!

  11. Wordle 2 today! Four letters on first guess, and lucky 1 in 4 guess after that!

  20. Still only 85 here. Not so bad on a day that is supposed to be awfully hot. I don’t get it.

    I understand that the high temperature won’t be until 4 or 5 PM, but still on those really hot days it would be higher that this.

    Keep the heat at bay, fine with me. WOuldn’t it be cool if we didn’t even hit 90 today. 🙂 🙂 🙂

  21. Mid 80s approaching noon, but the models suggest serious warm air advection the rest of the afternoon.

    We’ll trade the cirrus for that smoke plume I posted above.

    I still think 95-98F is in play, just not quite how we usually get to it. Might expect it to be 91-93F already to get there.

    But, I’d watch that 2-5pm, 3-6pm time frame, where, instead of adding 1-2F more degrees, we see some bigger temp rises. And a high temp not til 5, maybe even 5:30pm. All due to the 850 mb temps really rising this afternoon. We’ll see 🙂

    1. Yes, I understood that to be the case. I am just surprised it is still hanging just in the mid 80s. I am grateful for that. I hope it stays that way!!! Will be watching.

      1. 19C supports maybe 93 or 94,
        21 C supports 97
        22 C supports up to 99.

        Big difference there.

  22. The temperature may not be rising fast, but the dew point is.
    We’re up to 85 with a DISGUSTING dew point of 69!!!!!

    UGH!!!

    1. Neat !!

      I was going to post that I just took a ride and I didn’t appreciate earlier on, how “dark”, relatively speaking, it is outside. Very faint shadows with the disc of the sun barely visible.

      I do think it should get “brighter” as the afternoon wears on, as well lose the cloud debris, but the thick smoke plume will continue to have a noticeable effect.

      1. Very Dark indeed.
        No wonder the temperature isn’t going up, there is virtually no sunshine and what there is , is very very dim. I don’t know how much is clouds and how much is smoke, but it looks very weird out.

            1. Indeed.

              Boston points southeast, it’s both.

              I’d say by 1:30pm in Boston and 2pm on the south shore, maybe 3pm on Cape Cod, it should be just the smoke and a bit brighter.

        2. Its the same here in Hartford. Looks 100% overcast and smokey at the same time. Brainard is reporting “Fair” conditions and BDL is reporting “overcast”. Both are sitting at 87F with dewpoints of 67 and 66 respectively. Not sure the NWS projected highs of 96-98 here are going to verify this afternoon unless it brightens up a bit.

  28. Just about 1 PM and not watches or warnings up.

    I wonder if the severe threat up north will be totally mitigated by the clouds and smoke?

    2. Thanks Mark !

      I forced myself to read that article and shook while reading it.

      10 years ago, I had a stent put in my widow maker. For some reason, mentally, I didn’t have a struggle with that, afterwards. But, the recent blood pressure thing, I’ve had a tough mental recovery from, the vulnerability piece of it. Maybe it’s because I’m that much older now.

      Anyhow, I liked how he talked about the need for therapy and the mental piece. That’s been the hardest part for me and the part I’m still working through. It’s tough.

      And, obviously, thank goodness he survived.

  31. Thank you TK!

    Wordle: Finally got around to solving today, I hate when work gets in the way. Got a 3 and happy to see that everyone boarded the train today.

  32. The sky looks quite strange for 1:30pm on a July afternoon – my weather app is reporting sunny so most of this must be smoke as opposed to clouds.

  33. It is now yellow in Marshfield.

    Both my daughters, one here at the house and one in Duxbury, via text, asked, why is it yellow? And they are correct. An hour ago, it was a dark great sky, like before snow, now, it’s still dark, but decidedly yellow. Strange looking.

  34. Well, it’s nearly 2pm and since noon, the temps have gone nowhere, if not down a degree or 2F.

    Have to adjust down to highs of 88F-93F at 5:30pm, assuming it gets somewhat brighter.

    If it stays this dark, we won’t even hit 90F, but, I think it will get a bit brighter near 3pm, at which time, I’m going to watch the World Cup match. France/Spain should be really good !!

  35. 85/ 70 here.
    It has brightened up considerably and the sun is casting a shadow. I suspect temp will near 90, but not much higher.

    1. We went though the same thing.

      Real dark 15 mins ago and as the plume translated southeastward, the eastern third of the sky was dark and overhead and the western sky was brighter.

      I can see some shadows now, not strong, but certainly stronger than 15 mins ago.

      Now casting the visible, there’s another thick plume approaching in central NH and the Merrimack valley, I wonder if we go darker 3-3:30pm and then get brighter again.

      Fascinating day. Will we hit 90F ? 🙂

      1. I think the places most likely to rise a decent amount btwn now and 5:30pm are southwest NH, southern VT , west central and western MA and northern CT.

        Logan might get a 90F or 91F, but as TK points out, all the surrounding obs probably fall in the 86-89F range.

      1. looks like no watch is being issued. unless they remived the MD and haven’t posted the watch yet.

  41. 90/76

    Didn’t take smoke into account when I said 93 but that’s OK. I don’t mind.

    Pete…Massive smoke plume yellowing skies all across New England. Temps won’t live up to expectations today or tomorrow because wildfire smoke is very good at scattering sunlight.

    1. Which means 89. If that stays the high, they are going to have FOUR 90 degree days in the books that were all 89. Thermometer has not been fixed yet.

      See my issue here? This is IMPORTANT. This is not trivial at all.

  44. 87 in Woburn. That should be my high for the day, which will fall a few degrees below my expectation.

    Pretty much everyone stayed under 90 today with a few exceptions.

  45. Latest SRG shows tomorrow’s smoke plume thicker than today’s for at least a few hours. It’s fairly narrow, and therefore more concentrated. The guidance did not do as well at picking up on this and this also lead to over-forecasts of temps pretty much across the board. I’ll be lowering tomorrow’s on my next update.

    Boston should fail to make 90 tomorrow IMO, and the dew point will also be lower than today, and it will continue to be breezy.

    There is no longer a need for any heat-related advisories in the region.

    1. FYI: NWS’s point forecast is failing to take into account the smoke plume. It evacuates it after 8 a.m. tomorrow. That will not be the case. So those temps are already too high and will be in considerable error.

      1. I never thought that I would actually welcome wildfire smoke. It’s not only going to prevent our temperatures from that 96-98 range but struggle to 90. Maybe just 85? 🙂

        According to Jacob, it’s also preventing severe storms for NNE. All is good. 🙂

        1. Skies are going to look very strange the next couple of days though. Oh well, a small price to pay I guess.

          1. I don’t look at that as a price to pay. Strange-looking skies make for excellent photo-ops.

            As far as preventing storms … limited impact there, but a little bit, yes.

        2. The range was never going to be 96-98 today.

          I went 90-97 before the smoke ended up thicker than expected, and I figured most areas would be closer to 90.

          This was never a set-up for extreme heat.

            1. I was talking about my range. Others had that. I didn’t agree, forecast-wise. I even felt like I might have been a little too aggressive with 97 as my top. 🙂

  46. Thank you.

    Today was a 2 on my scale from 0 to 10. While it didn’t really get hot (hence the 2 and not a 0 or 1), the air was about as gross as it gets: Combination of high dew point AND the smoke. Try breathing really deeply outside today. You can’t.

    I sometimes cry with joy the first crisp mornings, still many weeks away, as I can breathe deeply and don’t around like a zombie with brain fog caused by heat and humidity.

    1. I love those first crisp days too. I have trouble finding energy in the hot and humid. But I get it back in spades once the cooler weather sits in and I love it.

  47. Thanks TK.

    It’s actually kind of crazy how poor the modeling was today on both temperatures, and on what’s increasingly looking like a non-event for the NNE severe weather. Clearly our numerical models have no concept on how to handle atmospheric responses to significant smoke plumes.

    Which is a little jarring in the sense that this (a major wildfire smoke event) is not an everyday occurrence, but also not exactly a rare one. It’s a pretty sizable blind spot in a science that doesn’t have nearly as many of them anymore. And in a world where forecasting is very heavily reliant on NWP, a blind spot like that sticks out like a sore thumb.

    TLDR: there *is* still a place for human input to forecasts, let alone the messaging/impacts/decision support component.

    1. Just a curious thought. Not intended as anything but wondering out loud. I do understand how guidance might not see the impact of the wildfires??? But even our meteorologist from Pete to TK etc didn’t see it in time to adjust the pre forecast. Not sure pre-forecast is a word but…

      1. I feel like I dropped the ball this morning. When I saw how thick the smoke plume coming in was I almost trimmed two to four off my forecast but I didn’t. Hindsight……

        I’m definitely lowering tomorrow. Maybe even Thursday.

        1. My thoughts exactly. Pete I know feels the same. But to me models and humans work together and even combined are not infallible. Neither of you “dropped the ball”. It’s not a perfect science and all do the best possible.

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