Dry Pattern

274 Comments

4:40PM

It’s quietly continuing drier than normal, with long term rainfall deficits of 3 inches or more, and no significant rain in sight for southern New England.

A frontal system sitting southwest of the region is acting as an avenue for clouds, which have been fanning across the sky, especially over southern MA and RI, during Tuesday. These clouds will hang in for tonight with only a slight chance a touch of light rain goes across RI and far southern MA, but as we get into Wednesday, dry air wins out again and sunshine increases in all areas, continuing Thursday and Friday along with a moderating temperature trend as high pressure dominates.

The weekend should feature more sun then clouds Saturday and more clouds than sun Sunday as an early call, with mild air Saturday only cooling slightly on Sunday. We will be between a frontal system to the west, which will approach later Sunday, and forecast Hurricane Sandy in the western Atlantic. The track of Sandy and any possible interaction with the jet stream and US East Coast is still highly uncertain. The only reflection of this possibility will be in a forecast shower threat at the end of the period. Don’t read too much into it at this time, as there is plenty of time to work out what will happen early next week.

In the mean time, the forecast for eastern MA, RI, and southern NH…

TONIGHT: Clouds dominate, thickest south and west of Boston, with only a slight chance of brief light rain in southern MA and RI. Lows 40-45 to the north, 44-49 to the south. Wind variable under 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Partly to mostly sunny. Highs around 60. Wind light variable to NE.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 43-48 but as low as 40 in a few inland valleys. Wind variable under 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs around 60. Wind SE up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 48. High 66.

SATURDAY: Partly sunny. Low 51. High 67.

SUNDAY: Mostly cloudy. Low 50. High 62.

MONDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers. Low 48. High 59.

TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of rain. Low 48. High 58.

274 thoughts on “Dry Pattern”

  5. seems about 50/50 we will know once it is right off of floridays coast if it goes up the coast or goes out to sea

  7. For what it’s worth here are two snippets from Pete B’s blog

    “Long range, all eyes are on the tropics as we await the latest track on Tropical Storm Sandy. Her track has us doing backflips in the Weather Center. There’s a lot to consider on this storm. And before we hop on the Hype Train, we want to be sure where it’s going”

    ” Last time I saw true phasing was during the Blizzard of ’93 and of course, the Perfect Storm.

    With that said, even if we do phase, the outcome will be MUCH weaker than either of those storms. Nonetheless, we’re talking about a big wind and rain maker: torrents of tropical rain, winds to 50-60 mph, and coastal flooding/beach erosion.”

    1. Sometimes by just mentioning what would happen IF….. drags you onto the hype train automatically. People here the big terms, and the story grows from there. Why not stop at: “If phasing were to occur, a significant storm would result for the East Coast”. It should be left there at this stage.

      2. Isn’t that the fault of the people who feed on the hype? And then want to misinterpret and play the blame game.

        1. But most people (I’m thinking of my wife, father, mother-in-law,etc) only hear the buzz words of a forecast unlike those of us this blog who understand the weather and pay close attention to detail. I was trying to explain the situation with Sandy to my wife this evening and she latched on to “the Perfect Storm” comment.

          1. I agree with both of you. Better public education would mitigate that issue, Vicki, but Keith also has a very valid point.

            1. I can remember back several years ago I happened to be listening to WJDA (a local AM station in Quincy) which at the time was running the Adult Standards format. I tuned it in as we were in middle of pretty big snowstorm and I was trying to see if they were running any local info about it. Not only were they running no info the prerecorded forecast was actually from the night before and at that time the forecast had been only calling for a light snowfall. I can remember my mother in law who was listening to the station arguing with me that we were only going to get a light snowfall when we had already got about 6 inches and were due for another 6 or more. She said…But I heard it on the radio!! LOL. I called the station and left a message that their engineer must have fallen asleep at the switch. 8 hours later the same forecast was still airing!

            2. Agree but I honestly do not think the average person wants to know more. His/her life is full enough. I read Barry’s blog and Pete’s full blog trying to be an average person (which I come close to) and thought Barry’s was more alarming which surprised me. I really don’t remember him speaking out this early.

              I guess as is the case with politics we are responsible for educating ourselves. But I totally get what you are both saying.

  8. Harvey is not certain on what will happen, but he is stressing he is very concearned. Looking at it now he said looks like out too sea. But there is a disturbance out there that he is concearned about that could whip that baby up the coast. I trust him. He tells it like it is.

    1. Seems they are all telling it like it is. Well the ones I’ve heard. They are saying there is conflicting info.

    2. That’s the best approach Harvey can take. IF the potential of the Euro forecast was realized it would be a significant storm. He has enough experience not to just dismiss that possibility, even though his stronger feeling is that it won’t be as big a deal, if much of one at all.

  9. Im not going to buy into the hype just yet. There is alot that needs to happen just right. I just don’t want it to affect my vacation,LOL. So much can change in a week.

    1. I don’t think it’s hype. Guess that’s where I differ. I think it’s possibilities and we are being presented with them. As I said if we want to hype then it’s our fault. I will say I have asked tens of people if they’d rather know what might happen ahead or wait until its near the time and find out “for sure” which is still not certain. Every one of the people said they’d rather know what MIGHT happen and be aware in their minds what has to be done if it does.

    1. It would be impossible for that thing to be tropical up here. The water is simply far too cold.

  11. I think when all is said and done the impacts won’t be that bad and most of the energy will be over the fish.

    1. I still agree with you jj. Out too sea is my call as well. In my oppinion only, I think Harvey is the best tv met out there today, the best. As he told it like it was tonight, he also stressed he is extremely concerned on what could happen. Some of his most trusted guidance is showing hints. My eyes and ears start to pay more attention when he talks like this. I wish I remembered what he said on that disturbance, that he said could be key.

  12. 18z GFS continues well to the east…however, instead of the feature completely going out to sea, it gets blocked by rapidly building high pressure up around Newfoundland. It begins to retrograde westward across Nova Scotia and then moves southward, east of New England.

    1. A couple previous runs did something similar, after the storm become a large post-tropical low.

  13. For those who haven’t noticed yet, Ch. 5 now has 7-day forecasts…they are referred to as “5-day + 2”. Unfortunately, the last 2 days do not show up on their website.

    I wish Ch. 5 would just go all out and have 7-day forecasts like the other stations and stop being so timid. I may send an e-mail to Harvey and voice my opinion on this.

  14. I think you have to lay out all the options but stress this is a low confidence forecast and were still many days away from this POTENTIAL event.

  15. I think, by and large, the message being delivered the last few days has been appropriate. I think that the meteorologists cant win. If they say nothing and something significant happens, then they get flack for not giving enough lead time. If they say there’s opportunity, then some say…look at that, they cant figure out what is going to happen. And of course, if they go with the EURO, then they hype. So, I feel for them.

  17. The last “real miss” of a forecast that I can remember, on a grand scale, was on a snowstorm a few winters ago. If you recall, there were forecasts of more than 12 inches of snow and schools and businesses closed early, etc. If I remember correctly, there was light rain most of the afternoon, as the heavy precip stayed just to the south and save for a couple inches of snow that night, the big snow never came. I seem to recall seeing the TV mets on TV apologizing for the missed forecast and at the time, thinking, I had never seen that before.

    Here’s the thing though….the storm was about 100 to 150 miles further southeast. The big storm materialized, it was there.

    Thats what fascinates me about this. When this all plays out, one of these supposedly reliable models is going to have missed by a major amount, not in terms of a hundred miles or so, but many times that.

  18. I remember that storm back in February 2010. It was one of many to hit the Mid Atlantic that winter. The storm that was strange was snowicane later that month where SNE got rain and just to the west and southwest of SNE had a good dumping of snow. That storm ended up being the grand finale of a very snowy winter for the Mid Atlantic.

  19. I did not go to work that day and waited all day for the snow and we ended up with under 3 inches.

    1. My husband stayed home too. I remember it as well and I remember sincere apologies by the mets which was very impressive

  20. Just got out of class and saw a image of the 18z GFS making landfall just east of Maine. Is that accurate?

  21. Patience is key with this type of situation. Can’t get sucked into either solution at this point. I continue to believe that this misses but not by much and we will feel effects of Sandy.

  22. Hadi I agree. I feel we may dodge a bullet. I do also feel we get some fringe effects. The only thing that had me just a tad going the other way, was Harvey being concerned.

    1. this would be one heck of a blizzard. :D… Also i think if anything this is just as strong as a nor easter.

  26. I sent an e-mail to Harvey requesting that those 2 extra days be included on the website just like on TV. I will let everyone here know what his response is assuming I get one. I have sent e-mails to Harvey and the station in the past and I have always had prompt and pleasant responses. 🙂

  27. Latest Recon Plane Dropsonde on Sandy :

    Pressure : 991 mb

    Max flight wind : 65 knots

    Seeing mention in report of ragged eye.

  28. From Todd at BZ.

    Tropical Storm Sandy…thousand of miles away from New England could play a major role in our weather early next week. At this point all scenarios are still on the table with a direct hit and major implications to a complete and harmless miss. Sandy will travel northward through the rest of the workweek into a position off the SE US by Sunday. At that point the atmosphere will be going through a major transformation as the jetstream buckles into the East Coast. That buckle could do one of two things, it could steer Sandy out to sea or steer it north and capture it blowing it up into a major tropical / hybrid – Nor’easter type storm. Also at play here is something we call the NAO…a huge roadblock in the atmosphere located over the North Atlantic and Greenland. If the block gets strong enough it could prevent an escape route for Sandy, leaving it no other choice but to curl back up here into the New England. I’m not trying to be an alarmist here but such a track would have very damaging impacts for New England…the coast would see significant coastal flooding and beach erosion over several tidal cycles. The interior would not be spared either…very strong wind gusts would produce tree and power line damage. Again, if the storm hits us…and that is a big if still…but a possibility that this weather office is very conscience of. My hope is that we will have a much better feel on the situation by Thursday, but this is a very complicated set-up so please stay current on the forecast.

  29. Ok, 18z GEFS ensemble is in and most, if not all of the members back right into New England. The track out to sea, with the exception of 3 members is gone.

    1. Are the 18 GEFS ensemble just has bad sometimes as the 18 operational runs are? Hasn’t the EURO historically for several months now over amplified troughs? I just can’t see what the 12Z Euro did today of taking the storm northwest right into NY.

      1. I dont know in regards to question #1. I do know that since 18z last night, there’s been an increase in members on each run shifting towards the coast.

        1. I hope it doesn’t pan out from a homeowner standpoint. I could take the wind, but if we had heavy rain too and power out, many peoples basements including mine would be in big trouble without our sump pumps.

          From weather standpoint, if it did come to fruition the way the EURO shows it, then it would be something we rarely see. A track from south of Jaimaica to here just doesn’t happen that often and with such a strong storm this is projected to be even when it is extra-tropical.

  30. I have to say that I love that all of these guys are just telling it as they see it. Good for them. I need to pick up batteries and water etc for winter anyway so it’ll prompt me to get it done. If this doesn’t pan out, it’ll be one less thing to do when we get that huge winter storm I’m counting on :).

    2. It looks pretty intense on the models. Lets not forget that the full moon is on Monday too. That would not be good.

    1. I saw that too Hadi. They had us in the warmer area for Nov, Dec and Jan. They had the northwest and parts of the southeast in colder and in the case of the northwest, much colder in a couple of the months I think. They said that they think El Nino may not be much of a factor and they just don’t know about the atlantic blocking, but they said they are pretty confident on an Aleutian ridge, which will cause the much colder air to be pumped into the Northwest.

  33. http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/data/sst/contour/natlanti.fc.gif

    If this whole idea of Sandy getting captured and drawn into New England plays out, check out these water temps. If you look somewhere between 68 to 70 longitude, while the gulf stream isnt as warm as it is near the immediate atlantic coastline, it does help to keep the water warmer further north, as say compared to off the coastline of say, Maryland.

  35. UGH with that outlook for first few months of winter. With that said you could still get snow in a mild pattern.

      1. I do agree that this coming winter will be snowier than last winter. That won’t be hard to do. 😉

  36. Just a note: 18z ensembles should mean little or nothing.

    And another note: The potential event is still 6 or 7 days away from impact here.

    1. TK. What do you think about my suggestion that the EURO has had a history for several months of overamplifying troughs? Does that come into play here and that is why it has the more extreme solution right now.

      1. You’re right on the button and yes I believe it comes into play here. The model has not fixed its issue. I’m not sure why.

        The Euro mislead Barry last week. That’s rare.

        1. Yes. I noticed that too. Barry has still been hanging on to the Euro in his extended forecast and has been frequently. He is one of e best IMO, but he needs to start believing more in the GFS as it has handled precip events very well for several months now.

  37. I meant about the ensembles is that others overall are coming closer to a coastal situation. I don’t even pay attention to an 18z run of the GFS.

  39. North I agree I have noticed way over amplification on the euro over the last 6 months. JMA brought this up on an earlier post.

  41. I agree :re the Euro, but the trough is pretty amplified on most of the models. It’s the timing of the shortwave pivoting around it and the exact track/speed of Sandy that are going to determine if/when the phasing occurs and when the storm starts to make the turn N/NW.

    It is hard to ignore that the majority of the GFS ensembles now bring the storm northwest, making landfall somewhere in the northeast or maritimes. Many of the ensemble tracks are particularly concerning as they bring the storm in perpendicular to the coast in an E to W direction. Areas to the north of the track would have a battering east wind, storm surge, and significant beach erosion. This would be eastern NE in 9 or 10 of these ensemble solutions:

    http://icons-ak.wunderground.com/data/images/at201218_ensmodel.gif

    1. i was looking at that last night and it showed about half and half . half of it going one way and an other half going out to sea

  42. You know you are a weather geek when you check this blog more often than Facebook. Can’t help but be intriqued by all of the predictions. I realize that there are a LOT of “ifs” but I am completely hooked. Mother Nature has a mind of her own and it will be interesting to see what happens. I will report in tomorrow on how Jamaica fared tomorrow when we talk to our family down there.

    1. I think they will be OK – the latest advisory has the storm at 60mph. Some dry air had worked into the system preventing it from strengthening more rapidly. It will probably be a minimal Cat 1 hurricane at landfall.

    2. At least they don’t have the de-forested hills and mountains like Haiti, so hey can take hearing a little better. I hope your family is safe when you talk to them.

  43. TK, Henry M. said he thinks there will be a significant east coast storm early next week regardless given the very negative NAO. (i.e. even if Sandy goes out to sea and does not get captured, the wave pivoting around the trough will spawn a more typical coastal storm, giving the east coast rain and some gusty winds). Do you agree with this? I’m not seeing this on any of the models, which are pretty much Sandy or bust.

    1. I think if Sandy is directly involved then the coastal storm is Monday-Tuesday. I think if she is not involved it may be more like somewhere in the first 5 days of November.

  44. I am starting to see something that may actually support the non-phasing idea even more, and believe it or not it may be a result of blocking that is too strong.

    Evidence on the operational 00z GFS: High pressure ridge building stronger south of Greenland to near Newfoundland. This ridge may be strong enough and far enough south to cause the trough that would have captured Sandy to try to split with the main part lifting more to the north in Canada and leaving a southern extension much too weak to do the job. In addition, what often develops south of such a ridge is an induced trough and a little enhanced mini southern jet stream, which may carry Sandy far enough east that she escapes the trough from the west anyway. This may be a key point that the Euro and other models have been missing. The Euro, typically trying to over-amplify the trough from the west, would have an easy time messing up this forecast. It still doesn’t feel right to me. I want to see if the GFS starts to grab hold of this idea more than just with this operational 00z run. If this scenario is indeed mostly right, the extratropical storm formerly known as Sandy would still probably feel the blocking and do a large cyclonic loop, but probably only far enough west to impact the Maritimes of Canada with wind and rain at some point. Here in New England our impact would be rough surf and large ocean swells. I know that’s a little too detailed this far out but just wanted to paint out how that scenario would go, if it indeed turns out to be the correct one.

    1. What is the GFS trying to do around hour 170 (Halloween)? Sandy is NE of Bermuda at that time, but it pivots a huge swath of heavy rain back west over New England??

  45. 0z Canadian hits us at hour 156 (Tuesday) and parks the storm nearly motionless over New England for three consecutive days. The low is 969 mb at its height when it enters NE. The storm initially moves due north with a track well SE of New England but then retrogrades it in at the last minute and parks it over us.

    The models are just all over the place. Too many factors at play this far out. I’m afraid it’s going to be a few more days before any consensus solution begins to emerge.

    1. The GEM just introduced an entirely new scenario. Kicks Sandy out, but then baroclinic development leads to a powerful low (not Sandy) that moves westward right into New England. I’m having a good laugh at the moment.

  46. 00z Euro places a 940mb low east of the Delmarva Monday afternoon and then slides it into NYC. So that model isn’t doing a lot of budging… Still not buying this scenario.

    1. I should be printing some of these model runs, especially the specific time frame where it has a 940 mb low east of the Delmarva. 🙂

  47. Its Wednesday, which means the 7 day outlooks go out to next Tuesday. Good luck to the TV Mets on what they are going to put on them for next Monday-Tuesday.

  48. Henry Margusity ‏@Accu_Henry

    Leaning toward the GFS now. That Sandy gets whipped out to sea and another storms forms off of NJ due to low NAO.

    1. hmmm Henry, I think at this point, the EURO solution has a better chance at verifying than that scenerio

  49. one of the models i forget which one had a secondary low pressure forming off our coast as sandy was way out at sea. with that 540 line right around areas north of the mass boarder. I wish i remembered which model was saying this so we all could have a good laugh.

  50. Good Morning. Al Roker continued the tactic of the New England mets and was just plain honest about what might and might not happen. He had a GREAT graphic showing what the two model scenarios are. I’d sure like to see forecasting continue like this because I think then the general public would get the education TK spoke of. My sister-in-law who is in Atlanta and trying to decide whether to head up here this weekend emailed me already. She had been watching Roker also and her comment was “now I see what all of these weather guys go through.”

    1. I alway enjoy watching Al Roker’s forecasts. Did you see him with the running cap on this morning? Definately not one of his finest hat moments 🙂

      1. Confession. I did not have a meeting this morning so I was “listening” with my eyes closed since I was still in bed. I opened them long enough to see his map and then closed them again 🙂 I am a huge Today show fan and love Matt and miss Meredith 🙁

  51. I just saw the tropical update on twc and they seemed pretty logical about it. They showed the two scenerios but said if the storm comes up the east coast it could be a historic storm. Don’t know if they are hyping that up a bit, especially at this early point in time.

    Sue – my best wishes for your family. Looks like a lot of wind and rain for sure. I don’t know where on the island they are but at this point it seems most of the rain and maybe wind is on the east side of the storm.

    I am excited about all of this – just hoping no one anywhere gets hurt or there is no excessive damage – no damage at all would be best!

    I think someone else mentioned this in an earlier post – can you imagine if this was Jan. or Feb.? If the ingredients were right, we would have a real major snowstorm.

  53. Decent analysis from Taunton….

    SUNDAY INTO THE EARLY WEEK…NEGATIVE NAO CONTINUES WITH LARGE
    HEMISPHERIC BLOCKING PATTERN IN PLACE. WITH LARGE UPPER RIDGE
    BUILDING ACROSS THE MARITIMES AND RESPONDING DIGGING LONG WAVE
    TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS…BIG QUESTION WILL BE WHAT HAPPENS
    TO SANDY AS IT SLOWLY MOVES OFF THE SE U.S. COAST. MODELS ARE IN
    GOOD AGREEMENT EARLY…MOVING N OUT OF EASTERN CUBA AND THE BAHAMAS
    DURING THE WEEK…BUT CONTINUED LARGE MODEL VARIANCE WITH THEIR
    SOLUTIONS DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. THE BIG DETERMINING FACTOR LOOKS
    TO BE THE POSSIBILITY OF A CUTOFF UPPER SYSTEM OR DIGGING TROUGH
    THAT BECOMES NEGATIVELY TILTED…CAPTURING SANDY OR ITS REMNANTS
    AND BRINGING IT BACK TOWARD THE MID ATLC OR NEW ENGLAND COAST.

    OF COURSE…THIS SCENARIO HAS HUGE IMPLICATIONS. LOOKING FROM A
    CLIMATOLOGICAL PERSPECTIVE AND EVALUATING THE LITERATURE…WE SEE
    PATTERNS FROM HAZEL IN 1954 AND THE GREAT GALE OF 1878 IN WHERE
    TROPICAL SYSTEMS DID NOT CURVE SIGNIFICANTLY BACK TO THE WEST…AND
    THIS IS THE SAME CONCERNING A CLIMATOLOGICAL LITERARY REVIEW
    EVALUATING LATE SYSTEM SUB-TROPICAL SYSTEMS IN PROXIMITY TO BERMUDA.
    HOWEVER…THERE HAVE BEEN AWKWARD MOVING SYSTEMS TO AFFECT THE
    REGION SUCH AS ESTHER IN 1961 THAT ACTUALLY MADE A LARGE LOOP OFF
    CAPE COD BEFORE MOVING JUST EAST OF THE CAPE INTO WESTERN MAINE IN
    SEPTEMBER 1961.

    NOTING SEVERAL ENSEMBLE MEMBERS OF THE GFS TRYING TO CAPTURE THE
    SYSTEM…WHETHER AS A TROPICAL OR HYBRID STORM AND BRINGING IT
    TOWARD THE COAST. HOWEVER…THE 00Z GFS OP RUN AS WELL AS SEVERAL
    OTHER MODELS AND SOME OF THEIR ENSEMBLE MEMBERS KEEP THE SYSTEM WELL
    OFFSHORE. ONE OF THE MORE CONSISTENT MODELS HAS BEEN THE OP RUN OF
    THE ECMWF…WHICH HAS BEEN BULLISH IN WRAPPING THE SYSTEM NWWD BACK
    TO THE COAST. THE CANADIAN GGEM HAS BEEN LESS CONSISTENT AND ITS OP
    RUN ACTUALLY KEEPS THE SYSTEM WELL OFFSHORE THOUGH SOME OF ITS
    ENSEMBLE MEMBERS SHOW SOME BACKING.

    THERE IS NO GOOD SOLN /ENSEMBLE OR OPERATIONAL/ TO FOLLOW AT THIS
    TIME…SO STUCK CLOSE TO HPC GUIDANCE FOR THIS PORTION OF THE
    FORECAST. THERE ARE A VARIETY OF SCENARIOS WITH EITHER A COMPLETE
    MISS /HIGH SEAS ON THE OPEN WATERS/…A CLOSE PASS /STRONG WINDS AND
    HIGH SEAS POSSIBLY LEADING TO COASTAL FLOODING AND ISOLATED POWER
    OUTAGES/…OR A DIRECT HIT /STRONG WINDS WITH PARTIALLY FOLIATED
    TREES POSSIBLY RESULTING IN WIDESPREAD POWER OUTAGES…HIGH SEAS
    COMBINED WITH WINDS RESULTING IN SIGNIFICANT BEACH EROSION AND
    COASTAL FLOODING…ESPECIALLY DURING PERIODS OF HIGH TIDE…AND
    FINALLY HEAVY RAINS RESULTING IN INTERIOR FLOODING/.

    THERE WILL BE MANY MORE MODEL RUNS TO EXAMINE DURING THE NEXT
    SEVERAL DAYS THAT SHOULD GIVE US MORE CONFIDENCE TO THIS SYSTEM/S
    ULTIMATE TRACK. THE BEST ADVICE IS TO STAY TUNED TO THE LATEST
    FORECASTS AND BE PREPARED FOR EVERY SCENARIO…BEST OR WORST CASE.

  54. I have my own confession. All this waiting is frustrating. I wish the models would at least somewhat agree on this one way or the other. Pretty soon we wont be able to say, “this is still many days out, anything can happen.” If the EURO solution ends up being correct, we will start to feel effects as early as sun night which is now only 5 days away. A 5 day forecast should at least be in the ballpark as to what the weather will be, IMO

  55. Posted on BZ by Weatherwizard:

    WeatherWizard • 2 hours ago

    Good morning.

    Sandy Analysis
    I am going to concentrate less on the models and more on the importance of several factors. If Sandy is further west of the core it will lead to a very interesting situation with a major storm impacting the Northeast. If it is spread out it will cancel out and probably steer east and make it very difficult for a capture of significance to impact the US. I am going to use the models to illustrate:

    The 00z GFS (newest data) made a big shift west but still misses the East coast. I would not pay attention to the exact track on the GFS because what it is telling me and several others is this is going to show a big hit soon for the Northeast. The latent heat distribution is heavily waited to the NW on this run and results in a stronger ridge:

    With the latent heat release on the west side it is strengthening the ridge to the north. In return this solution helps strengthen our ocean low amplifying the pattern and making the block further west.

    The sfc ridging noses down the mtns…CAD! Cold Air Damming is occurring in this model and NO it is not going to bring an ice storm like we see in winter time. Instead it enhances a coastal front along the Carolinas and sparks off some more convection north and west of the core. This further enhances the ridging!
    HIGH TERRAIN!

    Many people have already looked past Jamaica and Cuba and are forecasting for the East Coast. This is a big red flag because the high terrain of these places could throw a curve ball at us in terms of track and future of Sandy. The high terrain could destroy and do weird things with tropical systems.

    Sandy is currently on track to pass over some rough terrain. This will disrupt Sandy at least a little. A few things are running through my mind while this storm passes Cuba:

    1) Sandy gets completely destroyed by the higher terrain and we are left wondering what storm. This would be the least likely solution obviously.

    2) Sandy interacts with the higher terrain and comes off to the west of where model guidance has it.

    3) The inflow from Sandy gets disrupted and dry air gets entrained as it departs as winds come down the higher terrain leading to drying. This cuts off the convection on the eastern quadrants further supporting a more westward motion.

    So 1 of my thoughts would prevent a storm altogether, but the other 2 would favor a major storm possibility along the Northeast.
    EUROPEAN
    NEW 00z A big hit for the Northern Middle Atlantic with track going inland just south of NYC into PA

    \

    Older 12z which still had a major hit just to the north of NYC
    KEY POINTS

    – Sandy needs to pass Cuba first before we can give these models any credit

    -If Sandy does pass Cuba it will likely lead to a major storm that will move inland somewhere in the Middle Atlantic and Northeast

    2. He’s definitely right on the first point. The storm needs to get into the Bahamas before it becomes clearer what is going to happen. Not sure how he can be so sure on the second point – there are still several models that hold the storm together through Cuba, but then propel it east out to sea.

  57. Better model consensus coming as soon as this afternoon? Just read this on accuweather:

    The trough of low pressure that Sandy will be interacting with just moved ashore over the Western U.S. this morning, and got sampled by the 12Z (8 am EDT) set of land-based balloon-borne radiosondes for the first time. One of the reasons the models have been in such poor agreement on the long-term fate of Sandy is that the strength of this trough has not been very well known, since it has been over the ocean where we have limited data. Now that the trough is over land, it will be better sampled, and the next set of 12Z model runs, due out this afternoon between 2 pm – 4pm EDT, will hopefully begin to converge on a common solution.

  58. Should we begin to worry? Henry Margusity has written off a direct hit from Sandy for our area, while just yesterday he had out his Big Daddy hat.

  59. I took a quick trip to Target and picked up batteries for my two lanterns and glow sticks. I have always loved having glow sticks if there is a power outage when there are kids in the house. They give light in the night without the risk.

      1. No. There were not many others in the store. I am sure I’m being premature but I rarely have time during the day to get there and thought I’d take advantage of it since I won’t start work till noon.

  60. As I have said here a gazillion times, WeatherWizard should be posting here instead of wasting such informative posts on the trolls at WBZ.

    Thanks Coastal for sharing! 🙂

  63. I read Melissa’s blog on BZ and it seems her feeling is that if the system does come up the coast it will be into NY/NJ and not the Cape. I know it’s early but this seems to be a bit of a shift.

        1. Was referring to the blog – I don’t have a chance to watch tv during the day so I was surprised her blog wasn’t more in line with the other two. Glad she explained on TV

    1. good grief – bz has NY/NJ, not 5 and 7 have committed. John can probably tell you if 5 has. And now GFS has Maine. This is interesting.

  67. GFS has some serious precip totals and winds for eastern sections of NE. The beach erosion would be serious as well.

      1. Hi Kviri —- glad you have joined the “fun” – well discussion is fun ….flood is not. And that’s a great question. I have friends who had a lot of problems in 2010 and need to set up his pump.

        1. Yeah… the trick this time around is that we’re going out of state on vacation starting on Friday night, so we won’t be around to keep an eye on things.

          I hope against hope for OTS, but that seems less likely by the hour.

  70. This is beginning to sound like it could be for real – or are we all getting too excited at this point? I watched Melissa on WBZ at noon and ‘though the spaghetti charts and the “cone” (I guess that’s what you call it) gives this storm a good potential here, there are still lots of possibilities that the storm could go out to sea. I don’t want to be a spoil-sport, I just want to wait another day or so. Ok, so I have already started planning on what extra batteries we’ll need! 🙂

    1. I was feeling better about it not being a hit when the Euro and GFS were in less agreement. Now that the GFS is trending west, and closer to the Euro it will be interesting to see if the Euro budges slightly east in the 12Z run.

    2. Actually, I think the “cone” was a landfall possibility around Wash. D.C. or NY. from what I saw.

      1. I must be getting weather punchy as all I could think of was Maxwell Smart saying step into the “cone of silence”

    2. sure does – one report I said was she is a right-handed (eyed?) storm and that the area of Jamaica to the right will be most affected. I was hoping she’d wobble off to the right so the worst affected area would be OTS

      Thanks for posting that North

      1. The eye looks to be very close to the area that our family lives. Glad she isn’t any stronger than a Cat 1.

          1. We have not spoken to them since last night. We will call them we get home from work and hope their phones are working.

  72. I just want to say that I am glad I am part of this blog! And I can share and learn from other people who love the weather as much as I do! 🙂

    1. I second that emotion! And I have been arguing with my coworkers all morning about the storm. I finally told them that I have people “in the know” and they should probably just listen to what I have to say. 🙂

  74. I bet the Euro and GFS split the difference from Philly to Bar Harbor and ends up making landfall at the eastern tip of Long Island from the SE Direction.

    1. I’d bet on that too coastal, and I think that would be the worst case scenerio as far as landfalling location and direction goes

      1. Whew – wasn’t it Henry M that said a few days ago it would be devastating for the area if that happened

  75. Just saw this on the online Jamaican newspaper site:

    There are reports that a man is stranded off the south-coast, closer to the Pedro Cays as Hurricane Sandy approaches Jamaica.

  76. Seen many GFS shifts only to shift back. Give me a couple more runs of that track then we’ll talk, provided the other ones don’t change their mind in the mean time…

    48 hours before it’s confidence time.

        1. Mother nature likes her tricks and treats too I guess – and seriously – you can’t beat New England!

  78. Compare the 06z and 12z GFS runs. Nothing close to similarity. At least one can argue the Euro has been more consistent in its forecast, when trying to make a case for a landfall.

    1. TK, please buy into a New England land falling Hurricane so we, the bloggers, can enjoy the excitement even more. And do it soon before it goes out to sea. 🙂

      3. Ok, while I’m at it, after landfall the center will get stuck over the Quabbin Reservoir for 3 days and the cyclone will intensify because of a government experiment of heating the water to kill off microbes, and it will become the first cyclone ever to lose tropical characteristics over water, make landfall, and regain tropical characteristics over a lake.

        Oh and it will intensify a sudden after shock from the Maine earthquake due to the latent heat transfer from the water to the surrounding bedrock, create a new fault line, and slice the eastern half of New England off and make it an island called New Island.

        That better? 🙂

  79. That run of the EURO literally drives the center of Sandy up the Delaware Bay between Delaware and NJ. Bet there havent been too many landfalling hurricanes there in history.

  81. And now…an excerpt from the Presidential Debate between the GFS (Gov. Romney) and the EURO (Pres. Obama)

    Q: What do you think of each others solution(s) with regards to Hurricane Sandy ?

    GFS (Romney) : Based on the EURO’s recent poor performance, there are 16 trillion reasons its solutions are not trustworthy.

    EURO (Obama) : Now……..in regards to Sandy and the GFS….the GFS never shows any consistency. Can anyone recall what its solution was on Sandy just 6 hrs ago ?

  84. Ive been wondering something about tropical vs. extra-tropical, warm core vs. cold core systems. Looking at the model maps, is there any way to tell which is which in this situation with Sandy? Is there any parameter on the maps that will tell u which it is when making landfall?

    1. I’ll try with this…..

      I’d think the 850 mb temps near the center might be telling. I think, for example, there’s a frame on the EURO, when its east of northern Fl, and some of the warmest 850 mb temps are near the center….conversely, as it approaches “its forecasted landfall”, I think a transition might be taking place as cooler air is being drawn into the system.

          1. That be the start of the transition then, plus that may be the baroclinic zone that the NHC is talking about which the storm starts to get some fuel from. If I am not mistaken that is jet stream influence, but could be wrong.

      2. Makes sense Tom, thanks! On the EURO is loses its warm core just east of VA/MD. On the GFS, it doesnt lose it until its due east of Boston, then curls back. Interesting bc on the GFS, it seems to follow the gulf stream.

        1. Am I correct that following the gulf stream would be the reason GFS doesn’t have it losing it’s warm core until east of Boston.

          What temps does the ocean have to be to sustain a hurricane?

          1. It might be. Im not sure if ocean temp is included in the model run input data though. As far as ur second question, my best guess would be at least mid 70’s-mid 80’s for true tropical development. I think a system could sustain on water temps in the 70’s but i dont think for very long anything below that.

  85. This is Harvey’s facebook status:

    Harvey here…My confidence is growing…expect beach erosion, coastal flooding, wind damage & possibly flooding early next week…detail on NewsCenter 5, beginning at 5. Harvey

    1. I do like Harvey – an all time favorite. And have a lot of faith in his forecasts.

      Everyone is stressing the coast and for good reason. Does that mean there will be more of a normal storm effect for inland?

        1. Like I said last night, my oppinion he is by far the best tv met out there today. He tells it like it is. I have never seen or heard such concern out of Harvey. The entire ch5 weather team is top notch.

    1. There are several going back in history that have some similar characteristics to this potential.

      Who wants to try to come up with them? A little quiz…

          1. I kind of thought so, so figured I would take the guess. Growing up in Marshfield, I clearly remember that storm, also I lived right by the beach, major destruction.I will never forget.

  88. Coastal… I replied at 4:36PM to your 3:04PM post above. Please see the reply up there if you have not already. 🙂

    1. Not quite, other than potential intensity. Track and origin and jet stream configuration are completely different here.

    1. Was that the year they had to cancel the head of the Charles? We were trying to remember that year the other day?

      1. Now that you mention it Vicki, I believe you are correct on that. The head of the Charles was cancelled for the first time in its history.

  93. Hey Vicki…there was a segment on WBZ at 6:00 that showed Framingham cutting down many trees to hopefully prevent power outages.

    I wish you the best of luck keeping your power for a change come Monday-Tuesday with Sandy! As for me, I plan to purchase batteries first thing tomorrow. 🙂

    1. This whole area has been cutting. NSTAR has stripped everything along the power lines through all towns. Shhhhhh I love power outages

      1. Oh that’s right, I forgot. Power outages drive me crazy. I get upset if power is lost for even an hour. They don’t happen too often here in Boston in general thankfully. 😉

          1. Vicki, if you don’t already you should watch a new series called “Revolution” Monday’s at 10:00 pm on NBC. The entire world suddenly goes dark. No electricity, no batteries, no power. Real scary stuff. 😉

  97. Recon Plane on Sandy:

    Extrapolated pressure of 964 mb, max flight wind of 96 knots……

    Satellite presentation, unfortunately for those in that region, looks very healthy.

    This may be the first hurricane this year which was classified a hurricane, south of 30N Latitude. Most of the other storms, even Isaac, struggled in the tropical latitudes and got their act together around 30N Latitude.

  98. Not surprised by 18z GFS. That trough just came onto the mainland so now it’s starting to get sampled by the models. Let’s see if the euro holds strong but the trough is the key player and now we should have more data coming in.

  99. If I am not mistaken an “extratropical” storm can cause just as much damage (if not moreso) than the former tropical storm itself. I hope the mets really emphasize that a good deal of damage could occur if the worst case scenario. IIRC back in early September 2010 an extratropical storm really slammed Nova Scotia and much of Atlantic Canada…wasn’t that “Harvey”?

    Am I correct on this TK?

    1. Earl. The hurricane that missed our area. And yes, it strengthened as it went past New England, over water that was less than 80F.

      1. Because it was transitioning with expanding wind field and tightening relative pressure gradient.

      2. Thanks Tom…now I remember. We were all still over at the WBZ blog back then in the good ol’ days when the trolls were at their peak. Also some radio stations were playing the oldie “Duke of Earl”. 😉

        1. It was when Todd headed to Nantucket since he’d never experienced a hurricane and the trolls criticized him for that. It was a low point for the blog. I felt horrible for Todd who was simple fascinated by weather

          Sorry. On my soapbox again 🙁

    2. Extratropical storms can be damaging because during the shortly after transition from warm core to cold core, the wind field can rapidly expand to cover a larger area, and the winds can still be quite strong. Also, in classic northward-moving tropical cyclones, some intense rains usually occur to the left of the track. This happened, as you know, with Irene.

  100. Were going to get something its look like right now. The question is what.
    I saw the comment about WeatherWizard predicting normal snowfall. I’ll take that after last winter.

  101. I read the three main blogs. Have not seen TV reports. BZ seems to be the most aggressive which surprises me. Pete is saying prepare but has doubts sandy “will hand off the baton”. And Harvey is the most vague although specific As Alice said – I think – this gets curiouser and curiouser.

  104. Part of me doesnt even want to see any more runs of the GFS, its like being on a roller coaster. Just amazed by the consistency of the EURO, right or wrong in the end, its gone through several runs with different data each time and still comes back to the same or similar solution. Like Hadi said, lets see if the new info from the trough coming in has any effect on the 0Z run.

  105. Whats it been now, 3 or 4 days since the initial model runs suggesting a big east coast storm. I dont know about anyone else, but I’m mentally tired from watching all the computer models. 🙂

    Now, I just wish there was more consistency. Just need to finish out the week and by Friday afternoon, I hope there’s more confidence and concensus on what will happen, so that I can prepare as needed. Especially have to keep the camper safe !! 🙂 🙂

  106. Updated blog.

    I am still leaving detail out since October 29-31 is 5 to 7 days away.

    There is no need to go into detail, because anything too detailed will end up insufficiently verifying.

    I’m stair-stepping toward detail over the next few days.

Comments are closed.