The Week Ahead

291 Comments

10:59AM

This is a late-posted and brief version of the usual Sunday night post. Full blog this evening.

Simple pattern this week. A cold front plows through the region today, with brief mild air and rain showers ahead of it and a fast return to Arctic air behind it by tonight. Rain showers may end as snow showers as the cold air comes back in this afternoon. Dry and cold Tuesday through the middle of the week. Milder air tries to return later in the week but no major storminess expected at least into the first couple days of February (next weekend).

Forecast for southeastern New England…

TODAY: Mostly cloudy. Rain showers crossing the region west to east, ending as snow showers this afternoon with brief minor accumulation possible. Highs in the 40s through midday but falling to the 30s southeastern areas and upper 20s north and west of  Boston later in the day. Wind SW shifting to W increasing to 15-25 MPH with gusts over 30 MPH.

TONIGHT: Clearing. Lows around 10. Wind W 15-25 MPH with higher gusts. Wind chills below zero.

TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 13-18. Wind W 15-25 MPH with higher gusts. Wind chills around zero.

WEDNESDAY: Sunny. Low 5. High 20.

THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 10. High 25.

FRIDAY: Partly sunny. Low 15. High 30.

SATURDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of snow showers. Low 20. High 35.

SUNDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of rain showers. Low 35. High 45.

291 thoughts on “The Week Ahead”

    1. Funny how Mike Wankum (Wife switched to ch 5 during many of the incessant commercial breaks of the Grammy’s!) could tell us definitively on Sunday night
      that on the following Saturday, 6 days away, we would have a mixture of
      precipitation. Pretty smart guy to be able to know that. 😀 😀

    1. Albany 11AM Obs:

      271551 FEW014 BKN021 OVC027 1.25 -SNBLS 30 23 2915G21 G 31 035 001

      it’s 30 there and wind is NW pretty gusty.

      I’m guessing that things will dry out before temperature drops enough, BUT
      it should be monitored. 😀

      1. Thanks, OS – I was hoping the wind would dry out the roads before the cold arrives in full force. You are very correct that it should be monitored.

    2. I’ve been told that there will be no icing here, up there I have no idea, but the rain should stop a few hrs before its freezes plus the wind will help

  3. Good morning, not to bad today, raining off and on here, heading to Rhode Island to quote some properties, have a good day 🙂

  6. OOPS, BAD, BAD, BAD GFS for 2/5:

    http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-conusncep.php?run=2014012712&var=PCPPRSTMP_850mb&hour=216

    This was our big hope.

    And last night’s Euro had an Inside Runner as well:

    http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?lang=en&map=na&run=00&mod=ecmwf&stn=PNM&comp=1&run2=00&mod2=ecmwf&stn2=PNM&hh2=240&fixhh=1&hh=216

    http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?lang=en&map=na&run=00&mod=ecmwf&stn=PNM&comp=1&run2=00&mod2=ecmwf&stn2=PNM&hh2=216&fixhh=1&hh=240

    As DID the Canadian:

    http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?lang=en&map=na&run=00&mod=gemglb&stn=PNM&comp=1&run2=00&mod2=gemglb&stn2=PNM&hh2=240&fixhh=1&hh=228

    We’ll continue to monitor it as it is a very long way out there, however, current
    indications NOT looking good at all.

  7. I don’t know if this snow near Albany is from the Arctic Front, or residual from
    the Lakes: Either way, my guess is, we never see any of it, OR if we do, it will
    be just a wee bit of it. 😀

    http://www.wunderground.com/radar/radblast.asp?zoommode=pan&prevzoom=zoom&num=10&frame=0&delay=15&scale=1.000&noclutter=0&ID=ENX&type=N0R&showstorms=0&lat=0&lon=0&label=you&map.x=400&map.y=240&scale=1.000&centerx=400&centery=240&showlabels=1&rainsnow=1&lightning=1&lerror=20&num_stns_min=2&num_stns_max=9999&avg_off=9999&smooth=0

    Also, latest obs from Albany, temperature is down to 23, so it drops right on off.

  9. Ortiz just said if the redsox don’t give him a multi year deal, he’s moving on, I’m sorry I’ve never liked this guy, let him go IMO 🙂

    1. Charlie, how can you say you never liked the guy. I’ve been an avid fan of baseball for many years, and I can say with 100% confidence (unlike our weather forecasts) that Ortiz is the greatest clutch hitter in living memory. Period. Full stop. And, we’re lucky enough to have him on our team. While I don’t like rich athletes complaining about their already lucrative contracts, it doesn’t make me not like the guy.

      Re: weather. I doubt whether the snow we see in the Western part of the state and Eastern NY reaches us. It’s a little bit like some of those fronts that pass through during the summer months. It can pour in the Berkshires, and appear to be headed our way, but dissipate on its way to the coast.

      Interesting set-up for Sunday. Looks close as far as snow is concerned. Regardless, it will not be a fair-weather game. I’d say the advantage goes to Seattle big time if this is the case. They have the better defense. Manning generally doesn’t play well in the cold or in rain/snow. The Denver running game is not Seattle’s, i.e. Lynch is much better than Moreno (despite what Moreno has done to the Pats this season). My football predictions have been better than my weather-related prognoses. Seattle 27, Denver 17.

      1. I agree – I would hate to see Ortiz go. In addition to his unquestionable talent, he does a tremendous amount of charitable work – especially for children.

      3. I love your final score of Superbowl 🙂

        I’m not a big baseball follower, hence my aspect of Ortiz is different than an avid baseball fan, I’m as u probably already know am a avid die hard Patriots fan and football fan. Idk I just don’t like his cocky attitude and I’ve never liked him. Again I watch maybe 4 baseball games out of 162, and probably watch more patriots training camp practices in just july than the entire redsox season, I root for the redsox, just not emotional attached like the Patriots. I root for all 4 sports teams, but Patriots no matter what r always #1. Have a good day josh 🙂

        1. That’s fine, Charlie. Thanks for the message. I understand you’re a Pats fan and that the Sox are not a priority.

          Ortiz is cocky, yes. He also doesn’t always run out grounders. Yaz didn’t, either. Nor did Rice. I don’t know about Williams because I never saw him play.

          Nevertheless, Ortiz is money, as the expression goes. Perhaps the single greatest clutch hit of all time in Red Sox history is Ortiz’s game-tying grand-slam against the Tigers in Game 2 of the 2013 ALCS (I’d say Carbo’s pinch-hit 3-run homer is right up there as well – 75 World Series). Ortiz has delivered these moments a staggering number of times.

  11. Hmmm

    A couple of things:

    1. Was out at lunch. Snow in Boston is virtually gone. It is gone here in Roxbury.
    At home it’s about 50% gone and well on the way. Very thin and patchy there.

    2. re: Super Bowl Sunday

    Euro is all done on the 2nd as something passes through via the Inland route
    on 2/1. The Canadian also takes the Northern inland route on 2/2:

    http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?mod=gemglb&run=00&stn=PNMPR&hh=144&map=na&stn2=PNM&run2=00&mod2=gemglb&hh2=144&comp=1&fixhh=1&lang=en

    3. Re: 2/5
    For 2/5…The Canadian:

    http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?lang=en&map=na&run=12&mod=gemglb&stn=PNMPR&comp=1&run2=12&mod2=gemglb&stn2=PNMPR&hh2=204&fixhh=1&hh=216

    The Euro.

    http://www.instantweathermaps.com/ECMWF-php/showmap-ecmwf.php?run=2014012712&region=USA&var=PRMSL_msl&hour=216

    Much divergence. At this point anything goes. 😀 😀 😀

    I’m beginning to think that there will be NO MORE SNOW around here until
    at least mid-February, if then. 😀 😀

    1. Wouldn’t say that, OS. As I recall, we were all singing that tune last year in late January, and look what happened in early February and then in early March. While I don’t think we’ll get major storms like those two, I do think we’re in for more cold, more snow, more rain (ughh!), and more roller-coaster. The rain and temperature roller-coaster have been my biggest issues with this winter.

  12. With temperature still above freezing in just about all of eastern MA and some gusty wind, we should see most ground dry out sufficiently to avoid any major icing up tonight.

    There WILL be exceptions, typical places that see drainage running along the ground, downstream of melting snow, etc. – you know how that goes.

    1. Thanks, TK. Was just out with the dog and checked to see how wet surface areas are. We have total snow cover on all untreated areas here but the underneath layer is slush so that should freeze up solid. The roads are still “wet” but not enough, I think, to freeze. The wind, which has been in evidence for several hours, has dried the walkway for the most part and the flagstones.

    2. Thanks, TK, for reminding us all. Not only do you forecast and provide a great narrative, you also give us non-sensationalist warnings!

      1. Has always been and will always be my style.

        Thanks for your contributions to the blog. 🙂

  15. DT Tweet

    @DTVaWeatherman: POTENTIAL FOR MAJOR WINTER STORM FOR EASTERN US FEB 8-9
    .. has woof all over it ..

    1. Fine with me. If there’s a major storm about that time, odds favor it being Mid Atlantic southward. I think that’s the pattern we’re entering except one interruption next week.

  17. Joshua love your post about Ortiz. He should change his name to clutch.

    I disagree with your football score though 🙂 Denver will win the game going away.

    1. Anybody that picks Denver is not a true Patriot fan, this makes sense hadi bc ik you don’t root for the Patriots, and your a redskins fan, I respect Manning and welker but in my heart could never even imagine them winning, it truly makes me wanna vomit, I knew u were gonna root for Denver, 🙂

      1. Orrrrrr any pats fan who roots against Denver is afraid Manning might shine above Brady and doesn’t have the confidence to know better.

        Just sayin’

      2. Not sure Hadi ever said he was rooting for Denver. And I am sure there are Pats fans out there that may just think Denver will win based on skill, whether they like them or not.

      3. I am a true Pats fan and always have been, HOWEVER, it would not burn me at all to see Denver win. They’d deserve it. Manning is a great QB. I don’t hate the guy. I think it’s funny sometimes how overwhelmed people get with his success. He’s a very classy guy on top of it all.

        As far as Seattle? They’re ok. I like coach Pete. If they win, fine too. I am going to watch the game for entertainment. A friend of mine will be here and unless the Pats play in the Super Bowl we always root for opposite teams (a little tradition he started). 🙂

        1. I’m watching the game for enjoyment, food, commercials and food……did I say food. I have been listening re Wilson. He reminds me of Brady. I think he’s a class act. We will see I am having trouble with welkers hit. Amandola ? had a penalty called earlier in season for less severe but similar hit.

    2. Waste of money. And they installed a bunch of road sensors in the last 10 years to monitor everything, including how wet the roads are. Guess they aren’t making much use of those. All the main roads around here are dry too. Just some run-off water in a few areas (as I mentioned above we’ll have to watch tonight for ice in localized areas).

  20. I was just looking at snowfall totals for winter 2013-2014 pretty uniform north of the pike and south of the pike. The storms we have had this winter have been notable because they have tended to be hyper-local when it comes to accumulations. However the one true statement remains, you get more snow north of the pike than south of the pike. Makes me wonder why we call work so hard, forecast is simple right? The lack of precipitable water value in many of these storms with high ratios, while leading to some nice accumulations has not helped the overall drought situation which I believe will become worse as it possibly extends through the summer months, without the aid of significant winter melt-off.

    Worcester 39″
    Bedford 33.8″
    Boston 33.5″
    Lawrence 32.8″

    Hyannis 24.1″
    Taunton 23.8″
    Hartford 23.0″
    Providence 21.1″
    Springfield 20.9″

    1. Thanks for the #’s and the discussion. I agree with you about the drought potential. Some people see a handful of storms come through and they think it’s a wet pattern. The types of totals we’re getting are not going to erase a drought just like that.

      There are some hints at a messy pattern for the East, but it likely favors the Southeast and not the Northeast as we get into February. I still think we may have a pseudo-vortex in eastern Canada but it may be flatter and not allow much of anything to get up here.

      1. I am not in love with the active pattern in early February. I think the overall flow becomes flatter with less riding in the western us as a cold trough sinks down the west coast and cold air dives through the southwest, plains, midwest and into Tennessee Valley. This pattern tends to create storms that energize in the interior southeast eject off the Carolina / Virgina coast, keeping the NE drier than average.

      2. I did only NWS reporting stations. Taunton is 25 miles to your SE and its at 23.8″ and Norwood about 25 miles to your NW is at 29.8. Just shows you hyper-local some of these accumulations are as we are limited by the NWS reporting stations which obviously have some geographic holes.

  22. Interesting note about how shallow the cold air is at first. The front has gone by here (Woburn) and the wind has gone to the WNW with a falling temp. However, some scud clouds about 1500 feet off the ground are moving from SSW to NNE, still in the “warm” air. The more expansive deck of low middle clouds covering most of the sky in eastern MA is also sliding NE in the winds a little higher off the ground. Clearing line is showing up on the W horizon now though (from my vantage point). Here comes the Arctic again. 🙂

  23. Tk I totally agree, complete waste of money salting, they waste bc they wanna get paid.
    I never saw salters salting on dry road

    2. It’s one thing to pre-treat ahead of precipitation you are certain is coming, but these conditions don’t call for treatment on just about every major road/highway and most secondary roads.

      1. I’m not going out, neither have I had 1 client call out of almost 700, plus I’m out and about and all roads r dry for sure, the towns will not salt, the state will salt bc of lawsuits, again sad but I agree, this isn’t about safety, it’s safe 🙂

      2. This type of weather situation makes you concerned for black ice.

        If you are using Town/State forces, and not contractors, it is cheaper to pre-treat now, rather than take the chance that things ice over, cause accidents, and then have to come back in on overtime to do what you could of done for “free” a couple of hours earlier.

        1. The thing is, anything that is dry will not ice over because there will be no more water (melting snow, run-off, or precipitation) added to it.

          It’s areas that have the first 2 of the 3 things mentioned above still ongoing as it freezes up that need to be watched. This is not a classic black ice setup.

        2. There will always different views on every weather situation, I feel like if I went out and did a round just to collect money, I really could with only around 20 complaints stating I was trying to take there money, but I feel like if I did I’d be just stealing there money, I do agree to be safe, but I can’t apply salt to dry pavement, good day jma 🙂

  24. Providence having as much snow as Springfield to date is alarming to me. Western MA, into southern VT has had very little snow.

  25. We have relatives in Wilmington, NC. I’m very interested to see if and how much wintry precip they end up with.

            1. GFS wants to bring the snow almost
              up to Boston, although any accumulations
              at Nantucket only.

              But still, a Northward trend?

              I still don’t think it gets up here.

              Would be nice. 😀

  26. From Taunton NWS:

    TUESDAY NIGHT…
    MODELS HAVE TRENDED TOWARD A SLIGHTLY MORE AMPLIFIED UPSTREAM TROF AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY DIVES INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY. OCEAN STORM STILL FORECAST TO REMAIN WELL SE OF THE BENCHMARK BUT IT IS NOW CLOSER AND THERE IS AGREEMENT THAT NW EDGE OF PRECIP SHIELD WILL CLIP AT LEAST THE CAPE/ISLANDS.

  27. well i am hoping the gfs is correct for hour 144 😀 i know wishful thinking but at least it gives me some hope for some descent snow north of the pike 😀

    1. There is enough room for error on that to leave the option open all the way to Plymouth, though my instinct tells me that thing will end up largely offshore except for Nantucket and perhaps the Outer Cape.

  29. One thing that is for certain is that after this brief arctic air, we get in a more seasonable pattern w/ temps in the upper 30’s to around 40 degrees for highs to end Jan.

    1. I am not sure I would call it a seasonable pattern, as it probably won’t last. A temporary moderation is more likely.

  30. Harvey saying Plymouth to Nantucket may get brushed tomorrow night early Wednesday morning. Also saying the weekend could be in the upper 30s like 37.

  31. This is pretty much the first time I heard this coming this far north. But, DT WXrisk has been all over this storm for awhile down south. I know that TK pretty much despises him… it is quite evident . But he forecasts vs now casts .I for one love his face book page and he does a service for people. He can be obnoxious!!!

    1. I have not gone to DT’s page in 2 years. He does not forecast. He takes the most extreme model solution and runs with it as a bold prediction to get page views from the interested, but ignorant weather enthusiasts. No bravery there just false bravado feeding hysteria of the masses.

      1. I believe you just don’t like his style but your admission of not seeing his page for 2 years puts your argument in a pickle!!!! He looks like he might be nailing the storm in the Southeast. And might I add an area that has a very difficult time of handling an inch of snow. He has warned people with his forecast

        1. You are welcome to your opinion. It is clear by your many posts here that you embrace and promote his hype machine and evangelize his atmospheric self-promotion. You find him informative and of valuable service, which of course is not only fine, but helpful to the discussion. It takes all kinds and different styles.

          1. I don’t embrace it. I just don’t turn him off like others . If you read above I did say he was obnoxious ( Spelling??) but again he adds a service for people.

            1. He’s not for me and thanks to your posts and others I don’t need to read his stuff. They tells me nothing has changed with his style or accuracy. I don’t think he is that good at what he does, but hey we all get one right once in a while

      2. I used to go to his page yrs ago as well jma, it’s like if I were running a blog getting upset at everybody. Haven’t been back

  32. Nantucket could have a `private’ snowstorm tomorrow night into Wednesday. Wouldn’t that be nice for the locals on that normally temperate island?

  33. Eric says “plowable” snow for Sunday around here. He is the only met on board for now. I have yet to see an official forecast for the Super Bowl itself.

      1. Did he definitively state plowable snow for Sunday? That would surprise me. It means he has jumped on the 12z GFS. Which requires the shortwave to link with the barclonic zone set up to our south and pull down cold air as the low pass just to our south with a moderate, but snowy event. Lacks supports from any individual GEFS members as well as ECMWF & ENS and GGEM & ENS which have a more amplified solutions but drive the well to our west and push the 540 line into Southern Canada.

  34. I don’t despise DT. I would save that label for people much more harmful to society.

    I know he has some forecasting skill. I’m not in a place to judge how well he uses it.

    Though I don’t agree with the style of wording for a potential event that far away, I respect his right to use it.

    I am not a fan of how he treats some people. He has called me an idiot in the past for disagreeing with his forecast on more than one occasion, when all I did was give my forecast opinion and my reasoning (you can guess which one ended up being right – I’m not going to say). 🙂 But, people visit the page by choice, so I guess they can spare themselves having to see the insults by not going.

    I respect his knowledge. I just have a different style.

    1. You are more complimentary than me…I respect everyone’s right to read his page and embrace his brand of content delivery. I personally don’t respect his knowledge, skill, or style.

  36. Now that we’re on the subject, I’ll air one of my major pet peeves.

    “As I said last week..”
    “As I have been saying for days now…”
    “As I said about a week before anybody else…”

    Ok we’re all proud of calling something early, but I try to avoid these phrases like the plague. Nothing screams arrogance more than something like one of these?

    Yes I occasionally refer to something I have been talking about for a while, but ALWAYS with the aim of educating and trying to help those interested recognize something that I have recognized. I am equally open to learning from my colleagues.

    1. As I said on January 16th, I was looking at the 25th for a potential winter weather event. We got 0.3″ When you are on, you are on, and I just want everyone to know how well my forecast verified!

      2. HAHA!! Awesome.

        I think my problem is when people are making it so obvious that its use is to inflate an ego. If you call an event early and it turns out right, people will remember it without being reminded. 🙂

    2. Your comment just made me smile. You are one of the least self effacing individuals I’ve had the pleasure to “know”. And you have a talent that would often promote the opposite.

      And I will say now that anyone who calls you an idiot has automatically earned disrespect from me…..that would apply to anyone who calls another an idiot but when it comes to people I really like I have no tolerance.

      Phew. Glad I didnt hold that in. I’d have been posting it at 3 am

          1. I agree 1000% Vicki. And I am lucky enough to experience it all first hand. He is not only an exquisite forecaster, but he is also a state of the art human being and best friend.

        1. We used to have a media client who took the opposite track. His go to phrase after a blown forecast was “nobody saw this coming” Of course with this particular individual everyone had seen it coming, with one lone exception….

  38. Oddly, this map shows no snow for Boston???

    http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-conusncep.php?run=2014012718&var=PCPPRSTMP_2m&hour=216

    http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-conusncep.php?run=2014012718&var=PCPPRSTMP_850mb&hour=216

    http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-conusncep.php?run=2014012718&var=PCPTHKPRS_1000-500mb&hour=216

    This “should” be snow. Here’s the snow map for 72 hours at 240 hours:

    http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2014012718&time=72&var=ASNOWI&hour=240

    Something FISHY here.

    Anyway, it’s so far out there, not to worry. Let’s just monitor. 😀

    1. You know, I kind of think that we would have had more BIG snow storms
      with that particular jet alignment. 😀 😀 😀

      1. Yes ….. I kind of buy the look of the jet stream along the western US, into Alaska, but …… dont think the central Atlantic ridge has been that strong. I’d flatten that flow in the Atlantic Ocean some and perhaps thats accounted for the quick moving storms.

      2. Yes, their depiction of the jet stream in the East is way off. There should be 2 streams: a northern one carving its way underneath the mean PV position in eastern Canada and a weaker subtropical jet generally flowing across the Deep South and heading up toward the Carolinas (responsible for the occasional moisture that sometimes got up as far as southern New England).

        1. Thank you TK. Just didn’t reflect what has been happening. I guess they dumbed in down for dramatic effect? 😀

            1. I just wish they’d use accurate graphics. I believe every meteorologist in the public eye has the obligation to educate his or her audience.

              Use facts. They work best.

  40. Trying to stay warm, I like to follow Australia’s winter weather.

    The 40C temps that baked the start of the Australian Open tennis tournament are back in Melbourne today and again later in the week.

    When a weak front goes by, its switches their wind to the south and they get a refreshing temp drop off of the ocean.

    Seems they call this a “cool change” and all I keep hearing is the Little River Band, also from down under.

    2. I LOVE Little River Band. 🙂

      Some of my favorite bands have been from Australia, and from Scotland too. 😉

      1. Achhhh Scotland. I ran the Scottish category on jeopardy tonight and declared I may have married into the clan but am now a true member

        A of a random comment isn’t it?

  41. I tried to post on DT page and got called out right away for questioning something. I have no idea why anyone would follow him. Sure he can be right but IMO he blows one forecast after another. He then has the nerve to call people out who politely question his posts. I have no idea why as a human being someone would treat people with that much disrespect. He alway slams posters from the north thinking we are hating on him bc we always get the snow.

    Charlie you might have missed my earlier response on why I am taking the Broncos. I think Manning is a class act and I would enjoy seeing him win after the surgeries he has endured. He has done a lot to get back to this level and it’s admirable. Also just bc you are cheering for the Broncos doesn’t mean you don’t like the Pats. This is exactly the attitude of Pats fans that really bothers me. You think everything revolves around the Pats where you should look at the big picture. With that said I am cheering for the Broncos. I also have serious issues with the Hawks as an organization due to the multiple suspensions for PED and how blatant they have been.

    1. R u serious hadi, I never said I didn’t respect manning, BUT as a long time die hard Patriot fan, there’s no way as a true Patriot fan you can root for Brady’s arch enemy, no way!! Your don’t root for the Patriots, and that’s fine, but rooting for Denver to win, no bleeping way. 🙂

        1. That makes sense, I’ve never thought of anybody on here as a big Patriot fan, it’s totally different on the New England sports blogs, 85% rooting for the seadogs, as well as I am, go Seahawks!! 🙂

          1. One of my former coworkers, probably the biggest fan out there (he went to every game except ONE from 1970-2005 and only less so later due to age and health), is rooting for Denver. 🙂

          2. Be nice Vicki. Be nice Vicki. Be nice Vicki.

            Charlie. Spare me.

            Ok I tried. I’m sorry TK but I really did. I do not have an ounce of will power. Charlie IMHO you are giving true pats fans a really bad name. I have the confidence and respect for our team that you don’t. A manning win will not take away from the great QB Brady is.

  42. Seatle has the better defense and defense will win the Super Bowl. Hawks take this game and I don’t think it will be close. I heard fisher driving home and made no mention of a plowable storm here. Harvey said it could be 37 here.

  43. Had my first day of class for Spring Semester today 🙂 Glad the snow wasn’t bad, or the rain 🙂 Easy commute to and from 🙂

  44. You are completely wrong bc if you are such an avid fan you could see why people are cheering for Manning and I bet a ton of Pats fans are also cheering for him. As a football fan I would love for Manning to win bc it’s a great story. You have to take your blinders off and see the game.

    1. It will not bother me one bit if Manning & the Broncos win. Manning may be the “football enemy”, but you cannot deny the guy’s skill, accomplishments, and class.

      I’d take Brady over Manning if I were putting a team together, but at the moment, Manning’s getting ready for the big game, and Brady is not. Manning got the better of the battle this time.

    2. Forget it hadi you dont root for the Patriots or your a casual Patriot fan and thats fine, again if u r an avid Patriots fan, there’s no way u can root for the ARCH enemy picker nose Manning, great story my but, it’ll be a great story to watch Manning puke on himself.

  45. Charlie are you kidding that people aren’t big Pats fans here on the blog. You have some nerve calling out people like that. Just bc they are not jerks about their passion doesn’t mean they don’t love the team just as much as you do. You don’t know when to stop.

    2. Remember texting can be misunderstood and taken the wrong way, but yes, I’m saying if you root for manning and the broncos your a casual fan, again there’s no way you can really be an avid Patriot fan and root for Brady’s arch enemy, put it in baseball terms somehow with someone going to the Yankees from the redsox and they have the best 2aces and the Yankees were in WS, and I came on here and said yeah I’m rooting for idk Boggs/yankees to win the WS, obviously that would mean im not much of a redsox fan hey, screw Denver and pickernose manning, go Seattle!!

      1. Or you root for the best team. And that was not the pats this year. I’ve said before, when competing, we taught our kids always to respect the best. Sometimes it would be them. Sometimes it wouldn’t. But if it was not, it never detracted from their effort and having anyone else win should never threaten them.

        1. We all respect him Vicki, we just root against him, he’s Brady’s Arch enemy, I don’t know for a fact but I know Brady’s got to be rooting for Seattle, I know Steve Nelson and Steve grogan are, they as well said they respect manning but m said they have to root for Seattle at the VIP Putnam club, it’s just in the blood idk

          1. No….we all do not. And Charlie it ain’t in the blood. The greats don’t worry about this nonsense. As I said before. It’s what makes them great.

    3. You’re right, Hadi. While Charlie has a right to his opinion and his loyalty to the Patriots. One can be a Pats fan and still root for Denver in a game in which the Patriots don’t even play! The context is relevant here. For example, you might dislike Sherman’s attitude (like I do), or just the way the Seahawks play. At the same time, you may respect Manning, acknowledge his accomplishments, and be OK with him beating someone else (so long as it’s not you). I rooted for the Yankees in 2001 (post-911) in the World Series, and I am a die-hard Sox fan who loves seeing the Yankees suffer. Context always plays a role. It’s hard to be an absolutist fan. I think some European soccer fans are, but they take themselves too seriously and as a result ruin it for others when they can’t hold their venom in check.

      I’m with Vicki about the Superbowl this time around. It’ll be about seeing some exciting plays, but also the beer, chips, and yes, even commercials (however much I hate them at times). I really have no feelings one way or another. I’m truly indifferent. I don’t like either team, really. This said, I stand by my prediction: Seattle 27 – Denver 17. Manning throws 2 picks (one by Sherman, the villain), and gets sacked twice. Lynch is going to have a monster game, which will open up the passing game for Wilson. Wilson will also get sacked (3 times, in fact), but will not throw an interception.

  47. hadi we always bump heads when it comes to sports, and that is fine, I enjoy your weather post, I’m moving back to weather

    Clear and cold here 20.3 degrees brrrr

  53. Cape has mini storm tonight with up to 6 inches. Could that make it to boston? Possibly 0-1 inch is possible. So much for a storm free week.

      1. I’ll try, but perhaps others can chime in as well ….

        I interpret the GFS to be colder and a bit stormier, while I interpret the EURO to be a bit milder and less stormy.

        I also think they have the upper flows different.

        Both have a trof, but I think the GFS’ trof is sharper and more focused on the US east coast.

        I think the EURO’s trof begins to retrograde west to the central and southwest US, allowing a more SW to NE flow through the Ohio Valley and maybe thats why its a bit milder and has more of a northerly storm track.

  55. Henry Margusity ‏@HenryMargusity
    After southern snowstorm, we may see snow on the ground on almost every state in the lower 48.

    Henry Margusity ‏@HenryMargusity
    Next weeks storm may cause me to dust off the big daddy hat! Looks to me like a big snowstorm from the Plains to New England.

    Henry Margusity ‏@HenryMargusity
    Next weeks storm is a case where thunderstorms will drive into the cold air causing tremendous snow amounts.

  57. My brother is near rdu and based on gfs I think they are looking at 6-10 inches which would be great for them.

  58. I think we get a major storm in feb, my reason is we are in the process of a transitioning from one pattern to another. This is usually when we get big storms.

  59. Good Morning….

    The maps are all over the place. I make NO predictions whatsoever.
    Tk says to go with the Euro. I dunno. Last week it was go with the GFS???
    It will be what it will be. Since many of us (Most?) want Snow, I guess I’d lean
    towards a parade of inside runners/Lakes Cutters. BUT, it’s Winter in New England
    and there is Cold now and nearby later, so WHO knows.

    Fasten your seat belts and hold on. I “think” we are going to have a couple of
    weeks of Stormy weather.

    Re: Tonight.
    We’ll see if there is any change with the 12Z NAM, but right now, I don’t think any
    snow gets to Boston. Perhaps to “about” Plymouth, with the jackpot on Nantucket
    where up to 6 inches “could” fall. Very very very sharp cut off to the snow, ONCE AGAIN. 😀 😀

    Re: Saturday night/Sunday
    Looks like snow to mix/rain? Close call right now

    Re: Next week and Marguisty’s Big Daddy. 😀 😀 😀
    I’ll believe that when I see it.

    GFS has mostly a snow event.
    Canadian has Snow to rain to snow.
    Euro has a Lakes Cutter and RAIN!

    Take your pick. Both the Euro and Canadian have a fairly powerful system, while
    the GFS is a run of the mill job.\

    Re: Beyond
    There is MORE in the loaded gun and aimed right at us, although some signs point
    to more of a Mid-Atlantic event(s). We shall see.

  60. re: Tonight
    12z NAM wants to bring accumulating Snow to just North of Boston.
    Waiting for a complete run before I post any links.

        1. You sure could be correct, but that 12Z NAM had
          a SIGNIFICANT shift to the North.

          It will be interesting to see IF the 12Z GFS also
          has a Northward shift. 😀

  61. Interesting news from St. Paul, Minnesota. The following are excerpts from an email my daughter sent me yesterday:

    All public schools today are closed as well as most colleges in the area (except Macalester). The current real feel temperature is -40 degrees and I’ve decided I’m officially leaving Minnesota after graduation and never coming back! [smiley face]

    Apart from the polar vortex, my first day of classes has been really good so far.

    From the Administration:

    Hello All,

    Welcome back for the start of spring term 2014. I hope you had a restful and enjoyable break.

    Classes are scheduled to take place tomorrow as usual. For those of you not used to Minnesota winters (and even those who are) be sure to take extra care over the next few days. IT’S COLD OUTSIDE!!! Air temperatures will dip below -22 in the next twenty four hours,with wind chills dropping as low as -45 through Tuesday. Please use extra care, especially after dark. For the time being it looks like our friend the polar vortex will stay and play. We should be in the balmy 30’s, however, by the end of February.

    2. Joshua,
      My son went out to college in Chicago 6 years ago, but did end up staying there. They also have been experiencing the same crazy cold – Polar Vortex/Part II with wind chill values of about 40-45 below zero! The city is basically on hold until at least tomorrow.
      I hope you’re daughter gets through this unusual cold weather without incident, and I don’t blame her one bit for wanting to head back east!

      1. Thanks for your message. I like Chicago, and also like Minneapolis-St. Paul. The people there are wonderful. Your son’s decision to stay was a good one.

        My daughter’s emphatic statement about leaving Minnesota was a bit tongue-in-cheek. She actually likes winter. But, as she told me during her break, the cold can be brutal and far worse than what Boston gets.

    1. That is pretty PATHETIC for this time of year. PUTRID!!!

      The only reasonable spot is near the shores of beautiful Lake Ontario. 😀

  65. I actually think radar does support the NAM coming closer, I think the storm will end up much closer but still not enough to get most of us.

  67. I think the NAM underestimates the effect that super dry air has. It does this consistently. That may be why it overestimates qpf, etc … That is, the storm may come closer than initially anticipated, and in fact it may be snowing northwest of the Cape and the Islands at a certain point, but the snow never reaches the ground as the dry air vaporizes it.

  70. Places that normally don’t get much snow at all – Virginia Beach, for example – will be receiving a foot of snow. That’s impressive. Not sure when Virginia Beach last got a foot of snow. Maybe during the Revolutionary War in the 1770s? When we get our classic nor’easters, that part of the country tends to be all rain. Inland Virginia is a different story, to be sure. But at the coast, especially the most eastern-pointing coast, heavy snows are rare.

    1. I disagree hadi. There have been others here as well like tk who have said the same thing. If your looking for snow tonight it won’t be around these parts. Just my two cents hadi.

  73. For Tonight/tomorrow AM from the 12Z Canadian:

    http://meteocentre.com/models/get_mgram.php?stn=Boston&mod=gemreg&run=12&var=prcp&lang=en&map=us

    That’s about .08 inch qpf or perhaps 1 to 1.5 inches of snow for Boston.

    Here is Norfolk, VA

    http://meteocentre.com/models/get_mgram.php?stn=Boston&mod=gemreg&run=12&var=prcp&lang=en&map=us

    That’s about .87 inch qpf

    So at 10:1 about 9 inches
    15:1 about 12 inches
    20:1 about 18 inches

    I’m guessing the ratio will be about 15:1

    2. Tod Gunter said outside shot boston could see coating tops but feeling the precipitation should no go past Plymouth.

      1. Would you believe anything Gutner says? I wouldn’t.
        Given that, he could very well be right. I just don’t trust him.
        When he was on in the evenings, he was NEVER right.

  74. I don’t think anyone is saying this is a storm for Boston but if you look at radar and see where the storm is lining up it’s indeed more NW thank forecasted. Does that mean it snows here, no but chance of more snow south is increasing. You can’t just dismiss any model but rather look at the overall picture. I would also say that TK would not call the nam garbage in this time range.

  75. Hadi I know that.why do you get so you need to prove your point with everybody, your not talking with Charlie. It’s my opinion on the nam and if you don’t like it no big deal.

    1. John, you don’t know enough to evaluate most topics here. You surf from channel to channel and repeat what the tv mets say. Why not ask questions and learn? That would be better than what you have been doing. Its sad and comical at the same time.

    2. I completely agree John but you made a statement that I was disagreeing with. Not being combative in any way with you .

      1. You were trying to prove your point hadi because you did not like what I said about the nam, I stand by what I said. We all don’t need to agree. Take care.

  76. John here’s a tweet from the guy you trust.

    @HarveyWCVB: Northern edge of the area of snow may get close to Boston very late ton. & very early Wed.

      1. Patience, OS. Remember, there’s some randomness involved in all this. Some years, 2011 and 2013 come to mind, we in SNE get lucky (those who like snow) as the track is just right, the Highs are positioned well, etc … This year it’s been different. Frustrating because we’ve definitely had our share of cold air. I do think several nice-sized snowstorms will hit in February. More of the classic kind, which may mean that some of us (Tom, for instance) may not be as fortunate as others (JJ, for instance) as the snow/rain line boundary will come into play.

        1. Oh sure, understood, but you have to understand, Patience is a Virtue I do NOT possess. 😀 😀

          My yesterday prediction of no meaningful snow
          until at least mid-February is looking better right now.

          😀 😀

  78. Also reading what some mets are posting the NAM really didn’t move the storm NW but rather expanded the precip shield NW. The NAM deepened the storm more thus the increase the QPF field. Basically a stronger storm with larger QPF field.

  80. For this upcoming Sunday and the “Big Daddy”: Although for snow lovers it feels like we just can’t catch a break we can’t let one model run(12zGFS) bring us down. If I start to see more consistency there coupled with the Euro depiction then I will throw in the towel. Well, I really won’t throw in the towel until it’s in the NAMs range and the NAM shows rain too. Here’s to hoping for snow!

  81. Boy looking at where the storm is developing it sure looks further NW than modeled. I wouldn’t sleep on anything right now

  84. I see the BZ blog is targeting us again. I guess some people just can’t understand that we aren’t all necessary snow lovers and wishcasters, we just enjoy talking weather. I really hope they don’t lose sleep over it.

      2. I’m supposed to call you out………but you know me, coastal. I never speak my mind. Very meek and quiet 😉 You and I have NEVER had any sort of disagreement 😉

        Actually, John would be on his phone and you can’t post on BZ blogs from a phone to my knowledge. And it isn’t his style.

  85. In addition to snowing in Alabama and Georgia, the temps are in the teens to low 20s.

    Alabama has a large part of its state covered by something I cant recall seeing before … a civil emergency message.

  86. Dewpoints are so low and RH values are under 40%, maybe even closer to 30%.

    Just on that alone and the idea of very little ocean component to the wind to moisten the column, I’m thinking Plymouth is the furthest north on precip tonight and wouldnt be surprised if only reaches a line from Falmouth across Cape Cod Bay to Orleans.

    So, perhaps Eastham, Truro, Wellfleet northbound on Cape Cod also dont get snow.

  88. Tom,

    Your analysis “may” be spot on. We’ll know for sure tomorrow, won’t we? 😀

    That aside, I can’t for the life of me fathom that a sophisticated computer model
    utilized for prognosticating the weather, doesn’t factor in the dew points and relative humidity etc to determine IF the precip makes it to the ground. Doesn’t make
    sense to me. To be sure, it may factor it in, but have some deficiencies in doing so.
    That’s a different issue and may very well be the issue at hand. 😀

    1. Monitoring the radar loops, still looks like TOO much Eastward motion and
      NOT enough Northward motion to those echoes.

      System just doesn’t seem to have much push up the coast.

      Interesting to see the 18z and more importantly, the 0z runs.

      I’m wondering if they toggle a bit back to the East?

  91. For the record, I know who the WBZ poster is, and it is somebody that does not comment on this blog. I won’t name them. And that’s the end of that story. 🙂

      1. Oh I love a mystery. Mostly I hate to see it. Eric deserves more respect than that. He’s doing a great job

  93. Yes John crazy and hearing reports in metro Atlanta children stuck on school buses. Grid Lock on the highways.
    Interesting to note with this storm system that I was reading a weather blog from WAVY the NBC station in Norfolk VA and it was saying the EURO for that area was a drier outlier but came around to the GFS and NAM solutions.
    What happened to the once king EURO I ask???

    1. As much as I hate Taunton’s wording and lack of working knowledge of the English language sometimes, they have always been good on predicting snow amounts, especially so close to an event.

  96. Mark I think the only parts of CT that are going to see light accumulation of snow is New London County. With that said I wouldn’t be surprised other parts of the state south and east of I -84 see some flakes fly.

    1. I agree JJ, they are too far NW w/ accumulations. I think the dry cold air is going to be a factor as well, limiting the northward progression of snow.

      1. Now NWS out of Upton, NY putting all four southern counties in CT under a hazardous weather outlook. I disagree
        with that. I think New London County should be the only one under the hazardous weather outlook.

  97. Current obs from Atlanta is light snow with a temp of 22, dewpoint 18, and wind chill 12. I cannot recall an obs like that from Atlanta since maybe the superstorm of 93. Typically when it snows there, temps are marginal and snow is very wet.

  98. Good extended forecast discussion from NCEP. Talks about the upcoming pattern change with a more zonal flow favoring a much wetter pattern nation wide. This moisture will interact with the southern edge of the arctic air that is firmly in place and create opportunities for more widespread snow and ice across the country.

    http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/pmdepd.html

    1. Thanks for sending, Mark. Interesting. Important news for the Western states, I think. They need a zonal flow badly. Lows have not been coming in to California off the Pacific, and have essentially bypassed much of the state, leading to a terrible drought.

      However, zonal flow is generally not conducive to snowfall in SNE. More consistent with rain/mix, snow in the mountains.

  99. i haven’t heard from my sister in law. Her route was Atlanta to Albany yesterday and back to Atlanta today. For some reason she thought the storm was due tomorrow so she’d be fine.

  101. Update coming a little after 7.

    * COLD tonight and tomorrow, snowflakes may fall in Metro Boston but no more than a dusting. The potential for 1 inch or greater will be along and southeast of a line from outer Cape Ann to Hadi’s House to the NW corner of RI.

    * Snow ends, sun returns tomorrow, still cold!

    * Bright and chilly Thursday but you’ll notice it not feeling quite as cold.

    * Clouds, maybe a few snow showers Friday, “milder”.

    * Warm front comes through Saturday, breaks into the 40s.

    * Cooler and dry Sunday.

    * Closer to normal temperatures first half of next week with a storm threat late Tuesday or Wednesday.

  102. I understand the south is not used to snow so they are not prepared. But I don’t know how a couple of inches forecast in advance causes gridlock.

  103. I was hearing a report on TWC they don’t pre treat the roads down south like they do up here. In Atlanta a lot of people left work at 1pm so when all those people are on the highways your going to have traffic jams.

    1. JJ. I was just reading also. You are right. They don’t have the equipment which makes sense. And a lot of the reports I read said they were forecast to get a dusting later in the day. But it arrives earlier and it was more than a dusting. And there was ice at the start. Its a classic for here also. Work and school all let go early but at the same time. Heck, if we haven’t figured out staggering release, how could they. Tough mess down there

      1. Vicki a place like Charleston, South Carolina two salt trucks for the entire town. They simply don’t have the equipment down south to handle a winter storm like they are having right now.

        1. I agree. And it simply makes no sense for them to have the equipment. It was 1-2 inches that made me curious. When I talked to my sister in law she said they had about that. This was after 5:00. But if it started as ice and then everyone panicked and hit the roads at the same time, gridlock could happen with nothing. Maybe it is more about poor planning than the amount. Hard to know

          JJ did you see of charleston got snow? I was going to call some friends there but it looked as if it was rain along the coast.

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