Weekend Outlook / Peek At Next Week

201 Comments

5:39PM

Our old Winter pal, the Polar Vortex, will be spinning about eastern Canada for the foreseeable future, keeping us in a cold and dry pattern. There will be 2 brief “warm-ups”, Saturday and Monday as we get into the relative warm sectors of low pressure areas passing north of southern New England. The warm fronts from each of these will pass by Saturday morning and late Sunday night, respectively. The cold fronts from these 2 lows will come through Saturday evening and Monday afternoon, respectively. Each of these systems will produce the threat of some snow or snow showers, but no major snowstorms. Saturday’s system comes along with some decent instability, so there is some risk of minor snow accumulation in some locations with moderate to even briefly heavy snow showers. There are also indications that a main batch of snow showers will weaken as it nears the NH and MA East Coast and redevelops offshore. This will be monitored because only a brief heavy snow showers can cause dangerous travel, so we should not let down any guard. Cold eases on Saturday, when many areas may crack the freezing point for the first time in many days, but the cold will come right back in Sunday, only to ease a bit Monday and be reinforced yet again Tuesday into the middle of next week. Also, we’ll watch for some offshore storm development during the Tuesday-Thursday period of next week, but right now most indicators point to this storminess remaining offshore. As always, it will be monitored.

Updated forecast for southeastern New England (southern NH, eastern MA, and RI)…

TONIGHT: Increasing clouds. Lows around 10. Wind W to SW up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Mostly cloudy. Snow showers developing west to east in the afternoon, but possibly rain showers over far southeastern MA especially Cape Cod and the Islands. Minor snow accumulation may occur in any locally moderate to heavier snow showers. Highs in the 30s, may reach 40 Cape Cod. Wind SW to S 15-25 MPH gusting 30-40 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Isolated snow showers and snow squalls early. Localized minor accumulations and brief low visibility in any passing heavier squalls. Lows 10-15. Wind shifting to W 15-25 MPH with higher gusts.

SUNDAY: Sunshine followed by increasing cloudiness. Chance of light snow at night. Highs 15-20. Wind W 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.

MONDAY: Variably cloudy. Snow showers likely. Low 15. High 30.

TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 5. High 15.

WEDNESDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 0. High 20.

THURSDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 5. High 25.

FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 10. High 30.

201 thoughts on “Weekend Outlook / Peek At Next Week”

  8. As we freeze …… Here’s some other occurences from Nov-Jan ……

    November : Typhoon Haiyan ….. One of the strongest typhoons in record keeping era

    December : Argentina (South America) Heat Wave, hottest temps in some areas in record keeping era

    January : Australia heatwave, Melbourne 4 days of 40C + heat

    Western US drought continues. San Francisco receives 0.42 inches of rain thus far in
    December and January, combined !! Some 7.5 inches below normal over the past 54 days.

  9. I found this interesting bit of info from today’s Boston Globe (1/24/14):

    Using data from the Massachusetts Dept. of Education, a 2012 Harvard study suggests that school closures due to snow have little impact on student achievement, since most missed days are generally made up by tacking on extra days at the end of the academic year. Individual student absences, however, proved much more harmful to learning. And, researchers found, even moderate levels of snow led to a spike in students not turning up for class.

  10. I saw this ….maybe on FB

    So-called “global warming” is just a secret ploy by wacko tree-huggers to make America energy independent, clean our air and water, improve the fuel efficiency of our vehicles, kick-start 21st-century industries, and make our cities safer and more livable. Don’t let them get away with it!

    1. LOL … Whatever your stance is on how much we impact it, how can ANYBODY go this far with that thought? Unreal. 😀

        1. What I mean is that there are people that actually have that mentality and are 100% serious about stopping the helping of the environment. 😉

          1. Ahhhh got it and agree. The snark aside and there clearly was snark everything listed should be on our agenda. And it really has little to do with the term global warming which I’m learning to dislike as much as tree hugger. Funny part is that there are also extremes who believe everything happening is due to what man has done. Well not so funny 🙂

  12. I like to say global climate change, not global warming. Yes the average temperature is rising and so is the average ocean temperature. But like the envioment there are unbalances, these unbalances make some areas cooler, some warmer .some wetter and some drier. There are more extremes…. global climate change is indeed a natural sycle that happens over spans of time. Though no one can say that humans have nothing to do with the increased global climate change. If it was not for humans the climate change would be more balanced, much slower and less extreme. Human activities are aiding in increasing the speed of global climate change not the solo factor but is the factor of major change over a short period of time compared to how old the earth is. Cool thing that i actually learned in enviomental is that deforestation has gone down from 8% in russia to 1% and in south america from 9% to 5%

  13. A very balmy 20 degrees right now. Maybe mid 30’s today and a possible coating coming. I can’t see any meaningful precipitation until at least the week of Feb 2nd.

  14. Plenty of precip in long range gfs just when we start to thaw out :). I see about a week in early Feb where we warm above average and then plummet again into early march.

  15. BORING! I know there is snow showers coming through today but a coating to 2 inches is no big deal.
    NWS out of Upton hinting at a storm for Super Bowl weekend but the cold is retreating at the time so track will be critical in determining precipitation type.

  16. Brushing my teeth I heard a noise over my head. First thought was it was a mouse and it was coming through the ceiling onto my head. I never expected to see about a half dozen mourning doves on the skylight. Never before. Any guesses why? They were eating the ice crystals. Lack of water? It’s not as if there isn’t snow on the ground?

    1. I have seen birds peck at ice in a very cold spell. I am guessing they would get more water off of a chip of ice than trying to peck at snow itself, which if still powdery is probably not easily melted by their “mouths” that don’t have the heat like ours do. They peck the ice, swallow it whole, and have just enough heat in there to get water.

      1. I was thinking that must be the case too TK. The snow would be far more difficult to eat/drink. I need to get water out for them. Hate to see them that in need.

  17. Still have tears in my eye from constant laughter last night watching Steve Sweeney
    do his thing. I saw him years ago and thought he was hilarious. He’s taken it a step beyond. Absolutely the funniest comic I have ever seen. Hands down and that includes
    Jerry Seinfeld and Craig Ferguson.

    On the weather front, BORING. YAWN, yawn, yawn….

    Doesn’t this look like a line og thunderstorms developing? Watch it go poof
    as it heads towards the coastal plain, just like the T=storms do.

    AND, someone mentioned mid-30s? TOO LOW. I’m guessing 40-42 for Boston,
    anyway. And when/if it gets here it will be RAIN, until the front passes. 😀 😀 😀

    Monday’s sysetm, ha ha ha….FUGGETTA BOUT IT.

    Wednesday’s OTS. 😀

    IF we believe the GFS, sure looks stormy the beginning of February.

    Watch it RAIN.

    Now there is the potential for something for Superbowl Sunday.
    Still plenty of time to see how that shakes out. I hope it’s a foot of snow
    for the meadowlands!! Seriously, I do.

  18. Read a short piece this morning on an article in Newsweek in 1975 on global cooling. Peter Gwynne, who was then the science editor at Newsweek noted that global temperatures had gradually decreased since about 1940 (period 1940 – 1975). He included the views of several climate scientists who, at the time, predicted the planet could move toward colder temperatures of several centuries ago. Doug Struck, who writes for The Daily Climate (Scientific American) revisited the little-known piece, and others that appeared in other publications at the time (1975).

    As far as the long-range forecast, Hadi and others, I also see the possibility of a warm-up but it’s too far out in the future for any certainty at this point. My guess is we’ll return to seasonable temperatures in early February (close to 40 during the day; and 20s at night), which does not preclude snow.

  20. Big thaw coming early feb, this will get the spring chickens out, believe it or not, we’re starting the yr March 3rd Mon, it’s never fun starting the yr, but it comes so fast 🙂

    1. There may be a few very mild days in there, but I hesitate to get too confident of it because there will still be loads of low level cold in eastern Canada that can easily leak down, despite what the upper air pattern may be doing.

      Climate-wise, of course, we’ll be passing the mid point peak period as of the first weekend of February and heading the other way.

  21. I leave the house at 5am and get home 5pm or just after for work. Pulling in Friday at 5:03 it was still light out.

    1. You h be same hours mac has and he’s been saying the same thing. He is a big fan of having light well into the evening. Except its also darker in the morning longer

  23. ADULT SCIENCE QUIZ

    Here’s a quiz on how much science adults know.

    Only 7% of the adult population gets all 13 questions correct.

    See how you do–Click on link below:

    Science and Technology Knowledge Quiz

    I got 12 out of 13 and am totally embarrassed by the one I didnt answer correctly.

            1. John you are sleep deprived. No one else answering went for days without any rest. If they had, they’d be 1 for 13 …..guaranteed

    2. Here are my results:

      Science and Technology Knowledge Quiz Results

      You answered 13 of 13 questions correctly.

      This quiz is a joint effort between the Pew Research Center and Smithsonian magazine.

      I passed. 😀 😀

      1. Yay for the 13 out of 13. You are in top 7%. I on the other hand can only aspire to the top 8%………sighhhhhh. And I’m still waiting for the results of the last few TK mentioned 😉

  26. Tonight could be interesting when a heavy squall moves through. Still thinking an inch is very possible with an isolated 2 not out of the question .

  29. Its in the mid-upper 20s in NYC, DC and most of NJ with the same S and SW breeze.

    Its 35F – 40F in a good part of eastern New England.

    Thank you ocean south of New England for a quick break from the frigid air.

    1. You won’t be saying that tonight. I believe advisories will be posted by days end if not for snow than black ice. Any precipitation we get later is going to freeze.

    1. That is nothing but lift over the frontal boundary. No support for low pressure development there.

  33. 13 out of 13.
    By the way I wonder if anybody got any of the other questions wrong…
    Are you male or female, age range, education level… 😉

  34. Charlie your dead wrong about winter in mid Feb. I have seen downright bone chilling March’s. You have a different season than most people I know. You should move south.

  36. Was out and about from Noon to just a awhile ago.

    Car thermometer was reading anywhere from 37 to 40 and I was in Quincy, Dorchester, Mattapan, JP, Hyde Park, Dedham, West Roxbury and Roslindale.

    4PM obs at Boston was 37, with dew point of 23. I think safe to say “should” anything
    come down it will still be snow.

    Latest Nexrad radar:

    http://www.wunderground.com/radar/radblast.asp?zoommode=pan&prevzoom=zoom&num=10&frame=0&delay=15&scale=1.000&noclutter=0&ID=BOX&type=N0R&showstorms=0&lat=0&lon=0&label=you&map.x=400&map.y=240&scale=1.000&centerx=400&centery=240&showlabels=1&rainsnow=1&lightning=0&lerror=20&num_stns_min=2&num_stns_max=9999&avg_off=9999&smooth=0&MR=1

    1. Looking at some of the OBS, visibilities in any snow NOT impressive, ranging
      mostly from 1 to 2 miles. 😀

      1. Everything becomes snow covered later on. In Plymouth have my phone and pager on standby. Off to Kingston now.

  37. Regarding the ADULT SCIENCE QUIZ I got 13 of 13 correct, but some of those questions were total guesses on my part. I really surprised myself. I was sure my score would be like 6 or 7 out of 13. 😀

  38. I posted a short term update on the WHW Facebook Page about the snow showers moving in now (soon where they haven’t yet), and posted that a coating to a half inch may occur. I think this may be the exception though, rather than the rule, with dustings to coatings more probable. As you said OS, the visibilities are not impressive, and there are already signs of the “jump” we talked about getting ready to take place, as some activity is starting to fire up offshore, reading to receive the energy transfer from the line coming in from the west.

    I think if anybody sees 1/2 inch it would be from an isolated sneaky squall that forms behind this when a little secondary trough comes through sometime around or after 9PM.

  39. Snow and light dusting Framingham to wayland. They dropped a lot of salt on rt 20 wayland. I didn’t think u could salt by waterways

          1. There’s a weakness in the echoes heading into Boston. They will get one more burst behind that, then over by about 9PM with a coating to at MOST 1/2 inch on grass.

            Do have to watch for some road icing later though.

            1. Yes, you can use salt by rivers, as long as it is applied properly. Sand is actually more environmentally unfavorable to a water body..

  40. There are now hints at a more typical winter storm (snow inland/snow to rain coast) for next weekend including SB Sunday.

    Your thoughts TK? 😉

    I may be wrong on this, but has there ever even been a bit of rain during a Super Bowl let alone downpours?

    1. I’ll leave the Super Bowl weather research to Charlie. I am really not sure. 🙂

      As far as next weekend – there is likely to be a boundary nearby so we’ll see what happens. It’s way out but right now I’d lean toward unsettled Saturday and OK Sunday.

        1. Nope. I think we have a shot at some precipitation about next Saturday and again early in the first work week of February, but I think we’re going to be largely storm-free.

  41. There has been a very rainy superbowl recently within the last 5 or 6 years. It was in Miami but i cant remember who played.

  42. AceMaster there was a rainy Super Bowl in Miami 2006 and the game was between Bears and Colts with the Colts winning that Super Bowl.
    Closing in on an inch of snow where I am. Started out spotty in nature around 3 pm but picked up and snow pretty good from 5 until now. Forecast one track here for the coating – 2 inches.

  43. I am not a big fan of the seasonal outlooks that the government posts. They are updated once a month and the forecast goes out 14 months. It’s basically the same thing every time.

    A precipitation forecast that has a small area of above normal somewhere, usually near the Gulf Coast, and “equal chances” everywhere else.

    A temperature forecast that basically has most of the country above normal for the entire 14 month period.

    These, IMO, are not well-done at all, and I can guarantee you they don’t often verify with any significance.

    And yes, they originally had most of the northern and east central USA above normal temperature-wise for this month. Let me know how that works out…

    1. May happen, as a significant cool down is expected in Western Europe starting next weekend. But, forecasters there warn that nothing is set in stone as previous forecasts there for cool downs turned out to be false alarms.

  46. As expected, the area of snow is having trouble holding together in eastern MA. 1/2 inch seems to be the top amount but most amounts are less. Only about 0.1 inch here in Woburn with final band coming through now.

  47. Just drove from Scituate to Marshfield in a gentle light, wet snow. Recoated the few grassy areas that were starting to appear.

    Interesting “squall” line in central NY State. That probably wont hold together this far east …… 🙂

    2. Hi North, I’m not any relation to the Briggs, but might as well as be, Briggs,Gaumonds Auto Body across from the NA Police dept, and mosquito shield are all extremely close
      I’m related to the Gaumonds, and 1 of the Gaumonds is related to Brigsey if that makes any sense 🙂

    1. The new Euro is already shortening the duration of the warm-up. That’s when we get 2 systems through here, probably rain producers (though watch for sneaky low level cold in this pattern), then back to cold/dry.

  52. Have to love honesty of a 4 year old. My son comes up to me this morning and says “baba this cold weather sucks”. I first I said we don’t use sucks that’s a potty word. But then I couldn’t stop laughing. He kept on saying how cold it was and he wanted to play outside. I told him you know what Baba loves winter but since you and your brother have been in the picture I really think I am starting to want winter to be shorter.

  53. Today’s AccuWeather Trivia Quiz.

    On average, when does our last 32 degree high temperature day occur?
    A. February 13th
    B. February 26th
    C. March 9th
    D. March 14th

    Answer later today.

    4. That is a tough question.

      I presume this means 32 or less and not exactly 32. Could have been
      worded differently. We’ve had days in April that the high was 32 or less.

      But this clearly states on average. So that would mean take all dates with high
      temperature of 32 or less and see what the average last date is? Tricky.

      I’m going with March, 9. 😀

  54. Lol hadi hillarious
    Sounds like my kids, and them wanting to ride there bikes 🙂
    I’m all set with winter, we’ve had enough IMO 🙂

  55. Sounds like some boring weather coming up! I am more than ready to kiss winter good by and welcome spring.

    My heating bill from 11/22 to 12/20 was $161. That included a average temperature of 30, 28 Days and Units Used @ 129. My heating bill from 12/22 to 1/24 was $151. That included a average temperature of 26.8, 35 Days and Units Used @ 122. My brother’s gas bill, who has a similar style house but has 600 sq ft less, was $100 more than mine. I think the wood stove has started to pay for itself.

  56. Though the atmosphere wont respond to it …….

    Here are some sun data stats for Logan that might help the spirits ….

    Today alone, there is a 2:07 gain of sunlight for Boston. Tomorrow’s gain is 2:09, the next day is 2:11, etc.

    5 weeks and 1 day past the solstice, Boston has gained back 46 minutes of sunlight and 5 degrees of solar elevation.

    Every 3-4 days will now see 1 degree of sun angle increase.

    By Friday, sunrise will be pre-7 am. By next Sunday, sunset hits 5pm.

    Actual winter’s end …. nowhere in site.

    Solar winter’s end ….. we are about there. 🙂 🙂

  57. Reading Barry’s blog last night i was surprised Boston is barely 1 degree below normal so far for the month of January. With the warming coming albeit brief, would coincide with the last few days of the month. Could we possibly end the month above normal??

    1. I suspect its because we have been so far above normal for so many years. This indeed reminds me of a January as it should be. Not so for much of the rest of the country but here yes

  59. Last night with the temperature above freezing when the snow hit and them dropped
    right down to freeing or below, the big problem was black ice.

    I was out in it and after it. The crews did a great job and were out in full force
    to prevent any serious accidents.

    1. I 2nd that OS !

      Drove about 5 or so miles on 3A southbound from Scituate to Marshfield last night during that light snow. Truck thermometer read 27F, but I could definitely see salt had been applied and it really kept things from getting icy.

  60. It’s been a roller-coaster month. That’s why we’re barely below normal. Some cold stretches to be sure, but also several warm ones. I think we end the month a little more below normal than Barry indicated, given the next 5 days.

    Euro is indeed once again backing off on a significant warm-up in the Northeast. Much shorter duration. Likewise, it is backing off on a significant cool down in Western Europe. As I mentioned yesterday, forecasters there noted their skepticism regarding the long-range forecast.

    1. The Euro has been performing rather poorly (compared to its previous track record) for a while, and especially so since the resolution change. It didn’t work.

      JMA has mentioned this several times and is 100% spot on.

      And we will end up significantly below normal temperature-wise for the month.

        1. As William Bendix used to say on his 1950’s TV show,
          The Life of Riley”, “”What a revoltin’ development this is!” 😀

  62. I don’t care what the numbers say, this has been a terrible winter IMO, I honestly feel terrible for the kids, it’s to cold, boring 🙂

    1. I never got bored as a kid. Outside or inside. When there was no snow in the winter, we invented games, or played street hockey, or whatever suited.

      When it was too cold to be out, we were inside, inventing more games, making our own world. To us, it was easy. I’m not sure what has allowed kids to get so bored now…

    1. I’ve been checking out Lake Mead webcams and they are just as eye-opening.

      Its currently 118 ft below full pool. Yes, 118 feet.

      The canyon walls near the Hoover Dam have a white line on the rocks (I guess its minerals from a normal water level). To see how tall the exposed white rocks are is jaw dropping.

        1. Let’s hope something happens next week. This week is shaping up at the moment to be BORING weatherwise for us.
          Interesting 12z GFS wants to give accumulating snow to the coast in both north and south carolina for the middle of this week. You don’t see that often.

  65. I think tk, it’s from living in a warmer region the 1st 6 yrs of there life’s before we moved back here in 04, so they got used to that being able to do whatever whenever outside except when it rained, we had snow but when you knew when it snowed you had a snow day, so it was fun, I just here my kids always saying its to cold out, and it kills me idk

    Very cold out 🙁

  67. Going snow tubing. 3 hour pass starting at 3:30PM. At least the wind is dropping off. 🙂

    The Week Ahead will be a bit late. 😉

      1. From NWS upton:

        A WARM
        FRONT ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY WILL APPROACH INTO THIS EVENING. WARM
        ADVECTION HAS BEGUN AND WILL INCREASE INTO THIS EVENING AS THE FRONT NEARS. TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS WILL BE CLIMBING INTO
        THE EVENING.

        I think they underestimated the WAA

        MUCH OF THE AREA WILL BE DRY WITH THE JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF FLURRIES WITH
        THE WARM FRONT THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT

        😀 😀

  69. The snow has picked up during the second period of the Rangers Devils game at Yankee Stadium down in NY.
    Even some spotty flurries outside my window at the current moment.

    2. Weird. THe motion of the echoes are more West to East, yet the clipper is
      going to moved NE into Canada North of us. Must not have turned yet, so
      the WAA precip is moving more Eastward. There is some Northern movement,
      but now that I watch, probably not enough to get up here. 😀 We shall see.

  70. Some of the heavier snow showers staying south of SNE. Western Long Island now getting into a heavier snow shower while the snow has let up some at Yankee Stadium. Watching snow with the hockey game and seeing a marine layer come ashore with the golf tournament in La Jolla north of San Diego.

  75. I have no problem with winter. We have tons of fun indoors. We have a great basement and go on tons of play dates.

    Warm up should be brief and I think Feb will produce one big nasty blizzard.

    1. They’ll be shut down for a couple days.

      This should be interesting to watch how it plays out in the deep south.

    2. Hadi do you have a link. Sister in law flying atlanta/Albany route tonight and then back to Atlanta tues. I was going to send her a link to when, what, etc

  77. Answer to Today’s AccuWeather Trivia Quiz.

    On average, when does our last 32 degree high temperature day occur?
    A. February 13th
    B. February 26th
    C. March 9th
    D. March 14th

    The correct answer is C.

    3. Thank you. Love your quizes.

      How did we do? I know at least 2 of us got the correct answer. 😀 😀

    1. Fits the pattern this winter of the offshore systems trending closer to SE New England 48-72 hrs before an event.

  79. According to weatherunderground, a location in Siberia is -61F. (its calm)

    Canada is frigid, but comparing IR satellite pictures of Canada to Siberia is night and day. The frigid Canada air shows up as some light blues. The Siberia frigid air is dark blues.

    If a piece of that Siberia airmass ever broke off, crossed the pole and came straight down into the northeast, it might make the bouts of arctic air we’ve seen so far seem like tropical airmasses.

  81. Report I heard was they were expecting up to 1/2 inch of ice along the GA/Carolina coasts. Dylan Dryer (sp?) was reporting from Boston this morning from the Today show. I’ve been seeing her reporting from various areas around the county a fair amount.

  82. Jeremy Reiner ‏@jreineron7 1m

    The temp in Norwood went from 29 last hour to 42 just now with a south wind ~14mph. Yup, I’d say the warm front went through Norwood.#7news

  83. Morning…Yawn….
    At least there “appears” to be some storminess on the horizon.
    As Coastal posted, GFS brings one oh so close in a day or 2.
    Even so, some around Superbowl day and more significant shortly thereafter.
    Too early to speculate on rain/snow or amounts. Something to watch. 😀

      1. Temps are up into the lower 40s in Eastern and SouthEastern
        sections. Guessing RAIN as dew points are up into
        the 30s.

    1. Interesting, eh?

      AND to add to that, look at this tight little bugger from the 12Z NAM.
      This was previously WAY out to Sea. Now it is still OTS, but it’s looking
      so enticing. Just look at it sitting and spinning.

      http://www.instantweathermaps.com/NAM-php/showmap-conusncep.php?run=2014012712&var=PCPPRSTMP_2m&hour=084

      Now IF we can just get one of these up here. Nah, the atmosphere will
      wait and SEND us an Inside runner/Lakes Cutter instead just to piss us off.
      😀 😀

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