Saturday Forecast

53 Comments

8:51AM

DAYS 1-5 (APRIL 9-13)…
High pressure builds north of the region today and tonight while elongated low pressure sneaks out just south of New England, close enough for cloudiness but too far south for any precipitation other than brief rain/snow Cape Cod and Islands tonight. High pressure extends southward Sunday with more sun, but a gusty wind and cold air around will make it feel less like April and more like February or early March. As has been the case for quite some time, weather systems continue to move right along, and this means clouds and some light precipitation (rain/mix/snow) will be here as early as the late-night hours of Sunday night, into Monday morning, as a warm front approaches from the next low pressure system. With a little luck, this front will make it through the region for a bit milder air coinciding with the Red Sox home opener at Fenway Park on Monday afternoon. At this point it looks like any lingering precipitation would be in the form of rain and remain northwest of Boston. This won’t be the case for too long, however, as a cold front will slide into the region with increasing rain chances by Monday night and into Tuesday. This system should push offshore as high pressure builds in from the north during Wednesday. There is some question this far in advance at how quickly clearing will arrive, but will just leave some cloudiness in the forecast for now and adjust later, if needed.
TODAY: Sunshine filtered at times by variable high cloudiness, then less sun and more clouds later in the day especially CT, RI, and southern MA. Highs in the middle 40s to lower 50s. Wind light NW shifting to NE.
TONIGHT: Partly to mostly cloudy. A period of rain and snow possible mainly Cape Cod and the Islands. Lows in the middle 20s to lower 30s. Wind NE 5-15 MPH but higher gusts near the South Coast.
SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs in the lower to middle 40s. Wind N to NW 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.
MONDAY: Mostly cloudy. Spotty light snow/sleet/rain possible in the morning then scattered rain showers mainly northwest of Boston in the afternoon. Lows around 30. Highs in the 40s to lower 50s.
TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Rain showers likely. Lows around 40. Highs in the 50s.
WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Lows in the 30s. Highs in the middle 40s to lower 50s, coolest coast.

DAYS 6-10 (APRIL 14-18)…
High pressure builds north of the region with fair weather but cool temperatures, especially coast, April 14-15. Upper level low pressure area may back westward toward the region for the weekend of April 16-17 with more cloudiness and some risk of spotty rain. High pressure builds back eastward with fair weather April 18.

DAYS 11-15 (APRIL 19-23)…
Continuing to lean toward the drier side of a pattern of blocked up weather systems. Temperatures fairly close to normal and often cooler in coastal areas during the daytimes.

53 thoughts on “Saturday Forecast”

    1. Great image.

      SO if it faces us, then what? A sun spot is different than a solar storm, isn’t it?
      OR is it one in the same? tx

      1. I’m not sure. Looking at other solar images, it does look like there is a solar storm associated with this sunspot.

        I’m assuming it means an increased chance at the northern lights later next week.

        I use the Stanford solar center to look at these images.

    2. Sunspots have been rare recently as the sun has gone through a long “quiet period”. This probably will continue for a while, despite this activity.

  7. So TK you mentioned a few days ago when the euro showed about a foot of snow today for Boston that this was a test for the model (assume you meant code upgrade test). So I assume this means it flunked?

  8. There are finally signs of a warmer signal heading out way by the third/last week of April. How sustained remains to be seen.

  10. Visible satellite loop for the Northeast today shows nicely how the approaching low is not really approaching much anymore. It’s basically done from a northeastward track in the pre-dawn hours to an east southeast track this morning. Even the high cloudiness may have trouble really getting into the region other than far southern locations, and then tonight the mid level overcast should just get in enough for a possible rain to snow period of no significance by the Cape. A far cry, as noted above, from the outcome given by the ECMWF just a few short days ago, revealing again at least one major limitation of what we consider one of our best pieces of guidance.

    I think sometimes people look at such modeling failures incorrectly. Yes it’s frustrating, but I have to trust those who program and maintain this and other models to learn from these errors and adjust, and in the mean time try to use my knowledge of the limitations of technology to my advantage.

    1. Thank you, TK. An inquiring mind wants to know how close we want to get to being able to accurately predict weather a week or so in advance. I know it would be great and, in many instances, could be a huge advantage when it comes to severe storms. However, I enjoy the womder and the give and take. Perhaps, I am in the minority.

      1. I don’t think we’ll ever get that close. No matter how much technology we have, the atmosphere is complex enough that we’ll never be able to model it more than a few days in advance with much more accuracy than we have already.

        What will be more important and more achievable is modeling in the shorter term with greater accuracy, not only with large scale events, but much smaller scale events with regard to localized impact. Some short range guidance are getting better and better at placing convective showers and especially lines (including t-storms) up to 24 hours in advance. If we can eventually fine-tune this to narrowing down where severe weather (flood, wind, etc.) is most likely, advanced planning on the smaller and local scale will be more possible and we can avoid unnecessary risk and planning as well as cost in areas that we know will not be affected, as well as more importantly improve lead-time and preparation detail for the areas that will be impacted.

  11. Friends in NJ/NYC for harbor cruise tonight. Not looking great down there now. Is that expected to lift out? Thank you.

    1. It may pull out of there by evening. My friend lives in Delaware and opening day of little league baseball for his son was “snowed out” today.

          1. Crazy… (pause). My cousin’s daughter… I think everyone understood it.

            BTW don’t we all have at least one crazy cousin anyway? 😛

  12. This morning I put my shovel away for the season. I certainly won’t have need for it tonight or tomorrow that’s for sure. I didn’t get to use it like last winter but a bit more than I thought for an El Niño season…and in April no less.

    Congrats TK on your 25-35 inch range…only 1.1″ beyond it! (36.1″) 😀

  14. New Jersey, including the Philadelphia area is getting pummeled with snow.
    HEAVY snow reported in Philadelphia. 😀

    1. I’m super happy it’s there and not here. I’m sure they are not happy about it. BUT we’ve had enough snow. 30 inches is far to much.

      1. You’re a wimp! Oooooo 30 inches… I can’t take it!!! 😛
        Come on man, toughen up! 30 inches is EASY! We never even had any sustained snowcover this season. It was a PIECE OF CAKE! 😀

        3. If we got 30 inches of snow and cold only in December and January and then spring comes in February that would be fine, but the 4-5 month cold dark low sun angles are a killer for me.

          1. I understand. The low sun isn’t for everyone. Well regardless of the current pattern the bright side of the year is here!

  15. Charlie, I am going to put down a fertilizer tomorrow but is there something else I should put down now? Crab grass or weed preventer?

    1. You can apply your lime as well. Crabgrass only in sunny areas. Anywhere that’s more than 70% shade apply a straight fertilizer in those areas.

  17. GFS has been very consistent in progressing the early week system offshore enough so that it clears at least by later Wednesday and then is fair Thursday-Friday, but today’s 18z run decides, NOPE, that front is gonna spawn a low and then retrograde for unsettled weather starting Monday and lasting all week! 😉

  18. CMC backs one in here on Friday. Almost looks like a back door kind of deal with that high to the north.
    I will say next week looks pretty unsettled with meh temps in the high 40’s low 50’s

    1. I’ve been reluctant to jump into the unsettled regime because the progressive pattern such as depicted by the GFS (before 18z) has been what we’ve had, but at this time of year we have to watch for it to just come out of nowhere, and no we have GFS (1 run so far), CMC, and ECMWF on board for the “plug up pattern” starting next week.

    1. ECMWF drops a front out of eastern Canada on the 19th and send a trough southward into the Northeast while the ridge backs up into west central Canada, more amplified than the GFS, and we know that’s a trait of the Euro.

  20. Well, we’ll see what the next few runs show. The NAO looks to not drop as much, and crosses neutral around the 18th. That’s differs from earlier. And the ensemble members look fairly tight. AO looks a little better too around the same period. I’m willing to wait a few days to see if it really plugs up, but it sure smells like it.

  21. Models have a tough time this time of year with all the airmass changes, wavelength changes, etc.

    1. Ideally the models like everything to be the same and unchanging, as if the atmosphere is in a controlled box. So we’re already making and relying on something that has built-in limitations.

  22. Very quick update in progress…
    I’m doing a walk along the Charles River this morning. Would have been more pleasant in January. 😉

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