Friday Forecast

114 Comments

7:25AM

DAYS 1-5 (APRIL 8-12)…
And upper level low crossing the region today will make the atmosphere unstable and create some cloudiness and spot rain showers. High pressure builds to the north of the region for the weekend but has enough push to keep a developing storm just far enough to the south and in a configuration that only a brief period of rain/snow is possible Saturday night over the South Coast region of New England. This high will deliver plenty of chilly air, however. A warm front will approach on Monday and may trigger some very light snow/mix/rain. The warm air will get in but an approaching cold front Tuesday will likely trigger more widespread rain showers.
TODAY: Variably cloudy. Isolated to scattered rain showers. Highs in the lower to middle 50s. Wind SW 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.
TONIGHT: Variably cloudy early, then clearing. Lows in the 30s. Wind W 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.
SATURDAY: Mostly sunny but some increasing clouds especially CT/RI/southern MA later in the day. Highs in the middle 40s to lower 50s. Wind light NW shifting to NE.
SATURDAY NIGHT: Partly to mostly cloudy. A period of rain and snow possible near the South Coast. Lows in the middle 20s to lower 30s. Wind NE 5-15 MPH but higher gusts near the South Coast.
SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs in the lower to middle 40s. Wind N to NW 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.
MONDAY: Mostly cloudy. Spotty light snow/sleet/rain possible. Lows around 30. Highs in the 40s.
TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Rain showers likely. Lows around 40. Highs in the 50s.

DAYS 6-10 (APRIL 13-17)…
High pressure builds north of the region with fair weather but cool temperatures, especially coast, April 13-15. Upper level low pressure area may back westward toward the region for the April 16-17 with more cloudiness and some risk of spotty rain.

DAYS 11-15 (APRIL 18-22)…
Leaning toward the drier side of a pattern of blocked up weather systems. Temperatures not far from seasonal normals.

114 thoughts on “Friday Forecast”

  3. Thanks TK!

    What are folks thinking for the last chance of frost for the urban core of Boston and the suburbs? I believe we are close to the historical average last chance of frost – April 10th or thereabouts, with suburbia a month later. But is this year different? Mother Nature seems to be dragging her feet…

    I have some plants that I’d love to be able to bring outside.

    2. Hi all! Stepped into my WBZ Blog outfit while some maintenance is done with my admin account this morning/midday. 😉

      2. Anyone remember the handles of some of the noteworthy trolls from that site back in the day?

            1. I always thought Charlie went by his regular name until a few months ago he changed it to “Weatherman”. Of course AFAIC the only true WEATHERMAN here on this blog is TK! 😀

              1. 😉 There are a couple others hiding out and a bunch reading. We’re always being watched. 😉

  6. Total snowfall @ Logan to date = 36.1″

    I would say it is now time to call it a wrap TK!

    Not bad considering an El Niño winter. 😀

  8. Somehow I feel like I can be more of a wise ass when I use this name. 😉

    I mean if I do get too out of line I can always suspend myself, right? 😀

    2. And exactly where were you a wise-ass????
      Perhaps I can be such a one, that I didn’t see it? 😀 😀 😀

    3. You’re all talk TopKatt – I lurked on the WBZ blog too and you, Baileyman and OS were always my go to’ and the voices of reason amidst anarchy!

      2. I was a voice of reason?
        Well, I did get invited here, so I must have exhibited some
        decent behavior. 😀

  9. Total April snowfall @ Logan = 6.6″ (#8)

    The debate regarding snow in April should end right here once and for all!! 😀

    2. And yes we also acknowledge that it is rare to have a “snowy April” by the standards of the month. 😉

      This was the year. We’ll see when the next one is. Maybe 2017. Maybe 2027. I’m betting on somewhere between those. 🙂

    2. Very cold aloft. I didn’t think hail would occur but apparently the clouds are tall enough!

      1. Hail in Uxbridge…at 11:11….perfect little golf balls. Think someone is watching the Masters from above

  11. TK, NAM 12km and 4km as well as the WRF have the precip shield further north tomorrow night and envelope much of CT and RI in rain/snow. Do you think they are out to lunch?

    NAM 32km, RGEM and the global models are further south.

    1. I noticed that, but pretty much ignored it. Reason, it still didn’t show any
      accumulation, so IF it were to snow, doesn’t look like it would amount to anything, UNLESS there is that special April surprise.

      12Z GFS is exit stage right as is last night’s Euro.

    2. They tend to overdue precip in the northern sector and basically treat precip aloft as precip reaching the ground. Go with the further south solution.

      1. Thank you TK. I wasn’t buying it.

        I suppose there is some remote chance of some shenanigans, but highly unlikely. 😀

  12. I do agree that tomorrow night will likely be (was) the last chance of any meaningful snow depending on what part of the region you live in. I do see that the models have an ocean storm lurking around 4/15 and some cold air nearby on the GFS so you can never say never, but probability is low.

  13. HRRR experimental brings the clipper out to the coast of Delaware, so that too is likely
    to have the system pass out South and East of our area before any curvature Northward.

    1. Yes and that assumes 10:1 ratio and normal conditions and not the fact
      that the ground has had a chance to warm up some since our cold snap. 😀

      Minimal to zero impact at all.

  17. Got my Guns N Roses tickets. (busy summer concert series for me with Dave Matthews, Paul Simon, and 3 nights of Phish). I’m forecasting for there to be November Rain in July in Foxboro…

  19. One of the few cold spots on the earth’s temperature map is the Baffin Island region. They’ve had an epic winter that is not likely to end anytime soon. Much more snow than usual, but also much colder than usual. You may recall that the harbors last year were only free of ice from early July through late September. The last reading above 32F was last October. They’ll get tantalizingly close this weekend only to fall back to the teens and low 20s during the day next week. A hardy lot, those Inuit.

    http://www.camcentral.com/camviewer.php?script=listings&task=list&item=location&show=Canada&page=5&id=17446

  20. Just got a report of snow/graupel in both South Windsor and Tolland, CT. Turned the ground briefly white.

    I don’t think what you guys are seeing up there is hail, more likely it is sleet. Perhaps TK can chime in on that.

    1. Daughter said was perfectly round and did cover ground but disappeared before she could get outside to take pic. Curious to see what TK says

  21. The 12z GFS shows a potentially warm April 18th, Marathon Day.

    Not that I’m running, but it just seems to me by how we’ve started April so cold, that it only figures that somewhere in the middle of the month is going to be warm.

    I think its been nice and cool for the runners the last several marathons.

    2. Patriots Day weekend 2014 was the most beautiful April weekend I have ever experienced in Boston. From start to finish remarkably nice. No heat. No cold. No precipitation. It was as if the Gods up in the heavens were honoring Boston after its 2013 tragedy. Patriots Day 2013 was actually a nice day weather-wise, but on the cool side much like Patriots Day 2015.

      1. The start to finish was not meant to be a pun but could be read as such. I really meant from Saturday (start) through Monday (finish).

  22. My fifth graders told me that it was hailing when they were out at recess today (about 12 noon, in Milton). Don’t know they are correct about it being hail, but they insisted that it was frozen.

    1. Oh, it was. Looked like hail to me and not sleet. If it is very cold aloft, very difficult for it to be sleet. 😀

    1. Nice size to it as well. About dime size. As Vicki indicated, nice and round, like
      marbles falling from the sky. Made a nice sound also. 😀 😀

      I press the LIKE button. 😀

  24. The last two days have reminded me of late October/early November in the Netherlands. From the rain and wind, the unstable atmosphere, 40s and 50s, cloudiness, sporadic glimpses of the sun followed by more rain and wind and other precipitation forms. It’s like fall in Holland. It’s weird.

  26. I thought it was funny that bloggers have been asking about last frost. Today I saw 3 ,,, that 3!! different landscaping company tilling, mulching, and planting flowers. One place was legacy place. The other was the McDonald’s in Milford. The other was patriot place specifically the bass pro entrance.

      1. They can afford to take the chance. I sure wouldn’t consider any part of April safe unless the plant were hardy enough to handle frost or freeze.

        What were they planting?

    2. Planting is ok. Late frost is not always killing, and steps can be taken to protect plants etc. if we do happen to have a late heavy frost or light freeze.

      1. It certainly is ok if a person doesn’t mind. I’ve spent too much time covering plants with sheets to want to take the time or chance and sadly even then have lost some that were planted for special reasons. I am too old to want to spin my wheels….ill let the youth do that.

        1. The petunia’s did just fine that were planted near my work.
          That said, I don’t put annuals in until around Mother’s Day.

          1. Petunias are one of the ones I see planted early. Pansies also. I agree re Mother’s Day. We always had the kids pick out flowers every Mother’s Day and for the most part planted very close to the day.

  27. Going on the Cape to do some Ecological and Geology research for the 15th to 18th with my professor 🙂 Now I only hope its sunny, but with my luck its gonna be raining buckets lol

      1. for the past week if My mood controlled the weather, There would have been a severe weather out breaks with a bunch of snow as well 😛 The amount of things that ticked me off this past week
        today would be sunny with 70s if I had my way 😀

        1. If my mood controlled the weather many days would be sunny and warm, but 2 days ago we’d have had frequent squalls with a lot of hands slapping a lot of people upside their heads.

          1. I was just kidding. Although a week with bronchitis, constant coughing and no sleep and not being able to do anything (I’m not good at doing nothing) has dampened my mood a touch.

    1. Thanks, that makes sense with all the cold air aloft and instability. You need a mid level layer of warmer air to create sleet and we only really had that at the surface!

    2. That’s very interesting, I hadn’t heard about anything of the sort, thanks for sharing. Particularly interesting because our friend Dr. Ryan Maue made a post on Twitter a couple hours ago regarding the upcoming GFS upgrade, which is already in “parallel” testing. He keeps track of model performance, using the same 500mb anomaly method mentioned in this article (I guess that’s the standard for model performance?) In the very early going, the new GFS is actually under-performing not only the ECMWF, but also the current version of the GFS. Yikes. I’m sure it will get plenty of tweaking, but it’ll never compete with the ECMWF.

        2. I’m disappointed they have not been able to correct that. Nobody’s expecting perfection, but almost every time in a range outside of a few days that model predicts an outrageous amount of precipitation (not always snow) that just does come even close to verifying.

  31. Vicki, I hope you get better soon. This weather is NOT conducive to good respiratory health.

      2. You inviting me, Charlie? 😉

        It is just bronchitis. My grandson seemed to want to share it with me.

        I did get some new meds today. For a steroid inhaler the copay for seniors is $215. Yes, there is no period in that number except at the end and that is with a prescription plan

      3. As long as they’re not allergic to dust most of the year and can handle 2 months of humidity AND heat during monsoon season. 😉

        Actually, a family I knew moved from this area to Nevada because of the health of the father, but that was back in 1977.

  32. If our mood controlled the weather. We would have 70’s-80’s, with a quick thunderstorm to deliver a quick .50-1.00 per week. It would only last 1-2 hours. Then back to sun. Any more rain clouds just blah

    1. My wife and her sister informed me, they are never in the mood for snow. They always want 55+. I talked them into 55+. They insisted on 65+. 🙂

      1. She has enough moods all on her own without help from us…..don’t ya love those moods ⛈❄️

  33. Yes, Charlie, you are correct. Arizona is known for good air for respiratory problems. My grandmother spent her last years there. It probably extended her life a bit. She had emphysema.

  34. Some believe God controls the weather or major weather phenomena. The idea of curses persists in some cultures, including ours in some quarters, I don’t believe this. But, if there is a God, he/she oversees how we humans manage impactful weather, treat our fellow beings in need after natural disasters, and are prudent stewards of our earth. That’s my humble opinion.

      1. Were you moved by the words to the point of being speechless? That would be a first. 😉

  36. Charlie, I am going to put down a fertilizer tomorrow but is there something else I should put down now? Crab grass or weed preventer?

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