Monday Forecast

128 Comments

2:48AM

DAYS 1-5 (DECEMBER 26-30)
The pattern remains similar to what we’ve been seeing with a general storm track across the Great Lakes into southeastern Canada. These systems drag their fronts through New England and produce our precipitation threats, often rain-dominated, but sometimes other precipitation types occur depending on timing and local conditions. We’ll be dealing with 2 of these systems during this period, one today to early Tuesday, and another one on Thursday. If the moisture sneaks in quickly enough, some spotty flakes of snow and pellets of ice may develop in parts of the region during the day today as clouds become dominant. By evening and tonight, warm enough air will result in just rain showers, although cold air trapped near the ground may allow any of that rain to freeze on some surfaces in interior northern MA into southern NH for a while before it eventually warms up enough there to eliminate that issue. This system will push offshore putting an end to the rain showers early Tuesday. A period of dry weather will follow through Wednesday. But the quick-moving pattern brings the next system in on Thursday. For now, this system looks like largely a rain event as a redevelopment of low pressure on the passing front will likely be occurring too late and in the wrong position to be the type of system that would result in significant snowfall. However, cold air moving in quickly on the back side may mean a brief period of snow for some areas at the end, provided moisture hangs around long enough. The end of the week should end up dry but much colder.
TODAY: Clouding up. Spotty light snow/sleet showers possible midday and afternoon. Late-day highs 30-36 southern NH and northern MA and 37-44 southeastern MA and RI. Wind light S.
TONIGHT: Cloudy. Rain showers likely except brief freezing rain possible in portions of southern NH and interior northern MA. Patchy fog. Temperatures rise to 38-48. Wind S to SW 5-15 MPH.
TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy early to mid morning with rain showers ending. Partly to mostly sunny late morning on. Highs 47-54. Wind W 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.
TUESDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 24-31. Wind W 5-15 MPH.
WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 33-40. Wind W 5-15 MPH.
THURSDAY: Cloudy. Rain showers likely, may end as mix/snow some areas at night. Lows 22-30. Highs 38-45.
FRIDAY: Partly cloudy. Windy. Lows 22-30. Highs 30-38.

DAYS 6-10 (DECEMBER 31-JANUARY 4)
New Year’s Eve outlook: Dry and cold. New Year’s Day outlook: Snow/mix to rain but does not look like a strong weather system. Another system may bring precipitation, favoring rain, later January 2 into January 3. Should dry out by the end of the period.

DAYS 11-15 (JANUARY 5-9)
Same general pattern with 1 or 2 precipitation threats. Rain favored over snow but far too early for any high confidence.

128 thoughts on “Monday Forecast”

  1. REPOST…

    SAK says:
    December 26, 2016 at 2:17 AM

    Haven’t seen anyone mention it yet, but our Monday storm may start off with some spotty flurries and/or sleet across eastern and northeastern Mass late morning/early afternoon. I did include that in my StormHQ Weekly Outlook (https://stormhqblog.wordpress.com/2016/12/26/weekly-outlook-december-26-2016-january-1-2017/)

    Also, I’m willing to wager that the majority of us see more snow on New Year’s Day than from the Thursday system. Oh sure, the Euro could be right, and I’m not counting on it.

  3. 0Z Euro looking more and more interesting…

    surface

    http://imgur.com/a/RSAr5

    Run total snow (in central and sne this is from the Thursday/Fri event. way up north it has some from today/tomorrow) (also this is NOT 10:1, it is a proprietary snow algorithm based on temperature profiles etc. it used to be 10:1)

    http://imgur.com/a/JRp8G

    btw, by my count, this now makes 7 runs in a row it has had this feature.

  4. Interesting from the NWS:

    US National Weather Service Boston MA

    [Potential Noreaster Thursday into Thursday night]

    Confidence growing in a potential Noreaster Thu/Thu night. Bulk of accumulating snow most likely across the distant interior, with odds favoring mainly rain along the Boston to Providence corridor. Still a lot of uncertainty on track and where the rain/snow line sets up, so nothing is set in stone at this point.

  5. NWS says confidence is increasing for a nor’easter Thursday/Thursday night–mainly rain on the coastal plain

    1. Rain is most likely along the coastal plain, however, there is “room” for a surprise. Thermal profiles look interesting. It will actually be more of a boundary layer issue along the coast (that damn warm ocean). Perhaps we can grab a bit more of a Northerly component of the wind and/or More intense precipitation.
      I am NOT predicting snow, just saying the potential is there for some snow
      even at the coast. We shall see how it plays out.

      fwiw:

      Boston Buoy: Water Temperature (WTMP): 46.4 °F
      Stellwagen: Water Temperature (WTMP): 46.0 °F

  7. AccuWeather Trivia Quiz.

    What’s the most snow to ever fall on Xmas day in Boston?

    A. 12.5″
    B. 6.4″
    C. 3.3″
    D. 2.5″

    Answer later today.

    1. Most logical would be A: 12.5″, but it’s probably something stupid like B: 6.4 inches.

      As A kid I do remember a couple of storms that were MORE than 6.4 inches, BUT I don’t know what it was like in the City.

      Ok, I’m going with B.

      And thank you Longshot

      1. That’s insane. It truly sounds unbelievable, it truly does.

        I can distinctly remember at least 2 Christmas days with MORE
        snow than that. OF course I was living in Millis, some 21 miles
        SW of Boston, so that could account for it.

        I also remember one day where my Dad said it was going to change to rain. It did not, but could have easily in Boston.

        Weird, weird, weird.

      2. Well then, since I don’t like peaking, I’ll say A

        JPDave. I remember a very recent (early 2000s) decent Cnristmas snow. But again, Boston is rarely representative of the area

        Thank you, Longshot

    1. That is exactly what has been happening. Will it continue? Who knows.
      The way things have been going, likely to be an inland and up North
      snow event, but I suppose we can hope. 😀

  11. 12Z NAM

    Surface with 2M temps

    http://www.instantweathermaps.com/NAM-php/showmap-conusncep.php?run=2016122612&var=PCPPRSTMP_2m&hour=084

    850MB

    http://www.instantweathermaps.com/NAM-php/showmap-conusncep.php?run=2016122612&var=PCPPRSTMP_850mb&hour=084

    http://www.instantweathermaps.com/NAM-php/showmap-conusncep.php?run=2016122612&var=TMPHGTGRD_850mb&hour=084

    IF we had a High to the North With A NE to NNE cold wind feeding into this,
    It WOULD be SNOW here. However, out ahead of this system we have a SE flow
    with a pretty good marine layer penetrating a fair amount inland. That is the
    reason the call is for RAIN along the coastal plain.

    NAM has 850 0C line a bit farther North than the Euro.

    I would very much like to see the 12Z Euro run please.

    And fwiw, I think it still passes a bit farther South and East then depicted above.

    ALSO, NAM’s wheelhouse is 48 hours in, so the above has to be taken a with a
    few grains of salt. What I take out of it is, the NAM has the general theme, now
    we need to fine tune it.

    GFS will be out fairly soon.

  12. From Gray, ME NWS office:

    A long wave trough will approach the Great Lakes region on
    Thursday. As it does so, low pressure will develop off the Mid
    Atlantic region before heading quickly to the north, northeast.
    Rapid cyclogenesis may occur Thursday evening as the surface low
    drops from 990 mb to 978 mb in a six hour period with the latest
    Euro solution.

  13. Early thoughts on timing for Thursday? Driving from Natick to Madison Square Garden for my annual Phish at MSG trip.

    1. About 1 PMish for the start give or take.
      Could start as a touch of snow in Natick.
      I suppose you’re taking the PIKE to Sturbridge and then I84?
      It is “possible” You could have snow in that area. Stay tuned as
      the details get ironed out.

      If there is any question, You could always divert South and take 95 all the way.

      Phish? I thought that they disbanded? Did they and get back together? OR
      did I have misinformation?

      I like some of their stuff, especially the tunes that sound like the Dead.

      1. Disbanded in 2004, reformed in 2009. Met and married my wife during the disbandment. Then they came back and have had to pick and choose my shows–used to do 8-10 a year, now it’s more like 3-4.

  14. C for the trivia.
    Too bad the 0z EURO only gives me around 2 inches where northern New England gets good dumping

  19. Although, I really want a look at the 12Z Euro, this 12Z GFS looks fairly reasonable.

    We’ll see how it shakes out.

  21. I feel the same way. When you love snow you look for any signs of hope.
    I feel Thursday is a rainorama but hope I am wrong.

  22. That 3.3″ of snow on Christmas Day in Boston occurred in both 1974 and 2002. I remember 1974 because I got my first blue Radio Shack weather radio (remember those?). I was a freshman in high school. It was a complete surprise finding that under our tree. It was from my grandmother. She knew I was into weather as I couldn’t get enough of watching Don Kent and the other tv mets of the day. 🙂

    Interestingly enough, a lot more snow falls in Boston the day after Christmas…have no idea why exactly.

    2. 2002 must be the storm I am thinking of in the early 2000s. We had much more than 3.3 in Framingham.

      What a great memory of your grandmother’s gift, Philip. I really enjoyed reading it!!

  24. Latest from NWS:

    Thursday and Thursday night…

    This is where the majority of the focus was placed in the long term
    portion of the forecast. Initial weak low pressure will be moving
    across eastern Canada. At the same time, a shortwave will be
    dropping southeastward from the Great Lakes spawning low pressure
    developing off the New England coast. For the last few days, the
    ECMWF has developed this system quicker and further southwest than
    most of the other guidance. While the ECMWF continues to develop
    the system quicker/further southwest, the other guidance has trended
    closer towards that scenario. Now that certainly does not mean that
    trend will continue, we are still 90+ hours out in the model
    guidance world and there a lot of parts.

    With that said, we can say confidence is increasing on the potential
    for a rapidly intensifying Noreaster with a moderate to significant
    precipitation event. The guidance pretty much agrees on a sub 970 mb
    low moving into the Canadian Maritimes by Friday morning. The
    question is does this process occur far enough southwest to get
    southern New England in the brunt of the storm or does that remain
    across northern New England.

    To add to the complexity of this forecast, ptype is also uncertain.
    The antecedent airmass is not that cold and there is no high
    pressure system in eastern Canada. This will likely result in
    mainly rain along the coastal plain after perhaps a period of snow
    at the onset. At this time, the best chance for significant snow
    will be across western and north central MA, and particularly
    northwest MA. We could certainly see this shift further southeast
    or even northwest out of our county warning area completely.
    Nonetheless, potential for a noreaster impacting our region Thu into
    Thu night is increasing

  25. I remember December 2002 Christmas as we had dinner earlier with my grandma and uncle so my mom and I would get home before the snow started to fall.
    This date 6 years ago we were dealing with the Blizzard of 2010 which started a six week stretch of one snow storm after another.

  26. Hmm. Strong southerly wind before the Thursday system. Very progressive. Low pressure to the north where you’d want high pressure.

  27. 12z Euro shows a pretty amazing storm developing late this week. TK has laid out all the reasons why this will not be a snow producer for SNE, and he’s right, but this could be a northern New England classic the way it looks now.

  28. Happy Boxing Day!

    Hope everyone’s weekend festivities were wonderful.

    I, too, am remembering the Boxing Day Blizzard from 2010. A total of 14″ from that one.

    I also remember the 1974 Christmas snows as a 14-year old. Philip, you and I must be the same age! I remember watching Bruce Schwoegler on the 11 pm newscast on Christmas Eve saying that there was no chance of a white Christmas and waking up to find 3-4″ on the ground overnight.

    Based on that memory, I am going to go with C on today’s quiz.

  29. That 12z Euro is a sight to behold… 990mb to 965mb in 12 hours! 12-18″ snow for most of interior New England on a 10:1 ratio, actual ratios likely higher. Subject to change of course, but high end potential with this.

    1. Saw that. I have not had a chance to thoroughly analyze thar. 850 looks fine, but i don’t know other levels.
      That marine lAyer is a killer.

  30. 3-2-1 until the ECMWF acolytes, the internet troll “weathermen,” and associated acts that won’t / can’t synoptic forecast, rip and read the 12z ECMWF and deliver their definitive big snow maps for public consumption.

    I will bet an undergraduate degree, a master’s degree, and 20 plus years experience that this storm can’t act the way the ECMWF depcits.

  31. I thought there would have been an almost solid overcast by now, but the sun is still bright with just a few whispees. Are we still on track or will precip be delayed on arrival TK?

  32. The meteorologist at NY NJ PA weather seems to be in love with 12z EURO with this tweet
    Looking over data. There is growing support for moderate to heavy snowfall for the Hudson River Valley and NW CT on Thursday night.

    JPDave does the 12z EURO snowfall map support that?

  34. 18z NAM is interesting as well… earlier redevelopment, more precip, colder… but development is quite far west, it actually tracks inside the Canal. You’ll never get coastal snow with that.

    Thermal profiles will be interesting to watch no matter what. Unlike most of what we’ve seen this year, this will be a case where the low levels are warmer and it’s colder upstairs. Potential dynamic cooling situation would bring the R/S line farther southeast than it might otherwise be, especially if the storm turns out as powerful as the current guidance shows. Still almost impossible to get that line far enough southeast for most of us though. And the models can’t trend a whole lot stronger with this thing; my question is will they lock in here, or swing back towards a weaker solution.

    1. A very low chance for most of us, haha. Guess we’ll leave it on the table this far out though 🙂

      FWIW, going back to the NAM posts, there’s also a “parallel” 12km NAM as part of the ongoing upgrade of that series, and it is more west and warmer compared to the current operational version.

      2. Wx, updates do not nessessarily mean better as seen in the crap fest of a EURO update. Euro is no king anymore in my opinion.

  37. If you live near or at the coast I wouldn’t be excited about seeing snow Thursday. Interior SNE best shot at any snow.

  38. Just need a 50 or so mile shift to the east and Im fair game in the Merrimack Valley. We shall see… So ar this winter is for storms to track further west than originally forecasted.

  39. I looked over the Euro. The problem is in the lower levels.
    The 925 MB temps is a fair amount above freezing. (+3 to +4 C) Freezing level at about 3,000 feet or thereabout. No snow that way. Considerably COLDER above that.
    It is the facuckta marine layer warming the lower couple of thousand feet of
    the atmosphere. Perhaps a tiny bit of front end and a bit on the back end, depending
    upon how fast it shuts down.

  40. Here is the 18Z 12km NAM total snow map based on 10:1.
    Those totals closer to the coast, even IF real, won’t be there as the snow
    would be too wet and melting even IF it snowed some.

  43. Could it be a situation in which the heavier precip falls as snow and the lighter precip falls as sleet/rain

  46. With the term “nor’easter” being tossed around liberally by the media, I can guarantee you now that the building unreasonable expectations are already ongoing and will continue. Therefore there will be a lot of disappointed people closer to the coast later in the week that were somehow expecting a snowstorm.

    Also, I’m not going to hold back at all from expressing my extreme disappointment at local TV stations talking about snow amounts and showing model snow forecasts TODAY, for the potential on Thursday and early Friday. I saw exact amounts talked about, and I saw positions of rain/snow lines discussed. I’m SO against this that I can’t even express it enough.

    I DON’T GIVE A CRAP about ratings. It’s NOT RESPONSIBLE. PERIOD!

    1. Have you written to the station management? I have multiple times but not recently. As you know I’m vocal on blogs, but I make sure to follow up with a phone call, email or written letter. Otherwise, I figure, it does no good at all. Perhaps everyone here should write

      1. I’ve talked to the met’s. They’ve assured me that writing to station management will likely produce no results. They’re stuck playing the part.

        1. I talked to Pete and he felt differently. Not writing surely does no good. Being upset here does no good except make you feel better for a bit which I completely understand and identify with. Writing may not do good but then again….it might if there are a series of emails or calls. If they know folks like retrac and me and others here have stopped watching …..it is worth a shot. I plan to write to some of the mets also to see what their thoughts are but below are management contacts.

          mailto:station_management@whdh.com
          WBZ admin office tel:617-787-7000
          Wcvb. Bill Fine is general manager. This is link to a form. http://www.wcvb.com/article/untitled-content-1474488608/3618504

          1. My one wish is that folks on here at least stop finding fault with The mets. And understand it is out of their hands. Talk about sticking them between a rock and a hard place

    3. Is it even a true northeaster ? I would say no. The winds won’t be NE for very long in eastern New England. Initially S to briefly NE to NW. Not too excited about this particular system.

    4. This is not a storm that any responsible outlet should be using computer generated snowfall totals. So many factors that models miss 72 plus hours out.

      Prior southerly flow, fast progressive flow, no high to north, warm surface temps, warm through 925mb, higher than climo SSTs, and IF rapid intensification were to take place, shadows, dry slots, rapid westside drying would all be prevalent.

      I am actually reasonably confident as to how this plays out just details to refine

    5. That’s precisely why I don’t even turn them on. Haven’t for years. All the weather you need to know is right here.

  47. Answer to AccuWeather Trivia Quiz.

    What’s the most snow to ever fall on Xmas day in Boston?

    A. 12.5″
    B. 6.4″
    C. 3.3″
    D. 2.5″

    The answer is C.

      1. Light mist here in Boston…temp 37F

        For those in distant suburbs especially, be careful this evening until warmth arrives!

  49. Storm to fast.
    redevelopment does not happen as quick as the euro and Nam are showing
    boundary level issues due to extremely warm ocean temps.
    southerly flow, weak northeast component then strong northwest all of which not good for anyone in the eastern half of southern New england and even those in northern new england east of i95.
    storm set up looks good for interior Maine but thats about it.

    Now if the system intensifies much faster than models are showing off the mid atlantic lets say Virginia/Delaware kind of placement Interior southern New england could get a good dump.

    Im not getting excited at all because I think at the moment as it looks like it just starts to develop south of us.

  51. Monday night and mets again throwing out numbers . Wankum I actually like this model showing 2 inches.

    1. Shut up—————————— how about you wait and see . I love this guy but wait Mike it’s Monday

        1. If the mets have no choice Vicki, then what good is the job title of “Chief” Meteorologist? How can station staff just go along with such a clear disservice to the viewing public?

          1. Even those titles are in the name of making the news team sound “sexy” if you’ll pardon the expression. What the mets do is indeed largely determined by their non meteorologist bosses.

          2. It is the same in corporate America. They go along or they are fired. Note the turnover at 7. The motto of 7 is you heard it here first. Pete was told to get the numbers out first. Period. I have not spoken to him since he left. I often wonder if he just could not do it any more

  53. 0z Nam is developing the coastal low sooner and although it still hugs the coast is colder than the 18z…it really blows up the low just as it passes boston

  55. Of course we are talking about a NAM run in which the storm it’s forecasting is beyond 60 hours… 🙂

    1. True, but the NAM is showing the system stronger sooner. That “may” mean
      something. We shall find out. 😀

      1. It’s not enough to do any more than make me take note. It could come in weaker next run and that may mean something too. I just can’t put too much weight on that model that far out.

        And the ECMWF has not proven itself to be very reliable lately, so I take note, but that’s about it.

        The 18z GFS is equally plausible in its reasoning. We’ll see if the 00z continues that them or moves toward the other guidance.

        1. I know and understand. I’m watching. I sense something is happening here. I can’t wait to see the currently maligned Euro. I won’t be staying up for that, but WILL have a look at the GFS before I retire. 😀

  58. Very interesting write up from the Taunton NWS office this evening:

    Main Emphasis:
    here is the possibility that strong upward motion may lead to some cooling of the column to shift or keep the rain/snow line a tad further SE than otherwise one
    would think at first look.

    Thu/Thu night…Amplifying upper trough instigates surface
    cyclogenesis south of New England. Model consensus deepens this
    surface system quickly as it moves toward downeast Maine. The ECMWF
    operational runs have been fairly consistent and supported by its
    ensembles. The last few GFS runs have been trending closer to the
    ECMWF, although still lighter with the QPF. We are hedging toward
    the heavier QPF of the ECMWF given its run to run consistency and
    ensemble support. Rapid intensification may lead to a period of
    strong upward velocity Thu afternoon and early evening. There is
    also a signal for a decent comma head and some wrap around moisture
    into at least NE MA and perhaps even central MA as the thermal
    profile cools.

    For associated weather, anticipate potentially heavy snow fall
    across the Worcester Hills and east slopes of the Berkshires limited
    a little by event duration and somewhat low snow ratios given a
    marginal boundary layer profile. We are likely to see some elevation
    differences with this event. Along and southeast of the I95
    corridor, the precipitation will likely be mostly just rain. In
    between to the NW of the I95 corridor in eastern interior MA and
    across northern CT and far northern RI, the precipitation type looks
    to be challenging. It may be cold enough to produce some
    accumulating snow on the front end and across northeast and east
    central MA there could be some modest accumulation on the back end
    with wrap around moisture. Where it stays all snow, probably north
    and west of Worcester and Springfield, there is the potential for
    over 6 inches of heavy wet snow. Amounts will probably drop off
    fairly quickly south and east of Worcester. There is the possibility
    that strong upward motion may lead to some cooling of the column to
    shift or keep the rain/snow line a tad further SE than otherwise one
    would think at first look.

      1. This is the way I lean at the moment. The evidence after applied meteorology leads one in this direction.

  60. Local TV met quote: “I’ll show you the time line on this northeaster moving up the coast.”

    I’m not sure if the news director made this met say that tonight, but either way I highly disagree with it.

    Whether you believe the NAM, ECMWF, or GFS, we’re looking at a developing low between New Jersey and south of Long Island moving somewhere in the vicinity of Cape Cod. That is NOT a “northeaster moving up the coast”. Sorry. It’s just wrong.

  63. 0z Euro snowmap thru Fri night:
    https://s27.postimg.org/us5n725tv/Capture.jpg

    The Euro has the coastal forming over the Delmarva and tracking northeast to a position near or just east of Boston on Thursday.

    The ski areas of VT, NH, ME and potentially even the Berkshires really jackpot on this one, even if we are to cut these inflated snow totals by a third or half.

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