The Week Ahead

11:25PM

Things will be moving right along this week. Cold fronts are expected to move through late Monday, late Wednesday, and late Friday, with chances for thunderstorms each of those times. The first one on Monday may produce some strong to severe storms. The window for storms will be 2PM to 8PM from NW to SE across the region. Look for updates Monday. In the mean time, the detailed forecast for the Boston area for the coming week…

OVERNIGHT: Variably cloudy. A few showers. Low 64-69. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Partly sunny. Scattered thunderstorms from NW to SE during a 6-hour period from 2PM to 8PM. Some storms may be strong to severe with high winds and hail, torrential rain, and frequent lightning. High 86-91. Wind SW 10-20 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Low 63-68. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY: Partly cloudy. High 81-86. Wind NW 10-15 MPH.

TUESDAY  NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Low 61-66. Wind W 5-10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Partly cloudy. Chance of thunderstorms late. High 84-89. Wind SW 10-15 MPH.

THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 63. High 84.

FRIDAY: PM thunderstorms. Low 68. High 88.

SATURDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 66. High 86.

SUNDAY: Mostly cloudy. Low 66. High 85.

52 thoughts on “The Week Ahead”

  1. For my meteorology-knowledgeable readers: I think the 00Z NAM is a piece of junk and completely off with initialization and handling of a shortwave that it depicts as a wave just south of New England on Wednesday. This is a high risk, high reward forecast tossing it out.

  2. Good Morning and happy August 1st. I hope everyone had a great weekend.
    It looks like thunderstorms are a possibility this afternoon. The storm prediction center continues to have us in the slight risk for severe weather with a 15% chance for hail and winds. Tornado threat does not show up on the map since it is less than 2%.
    Will see if any of those percentages change when the next update issued between 8:30 and 9:00 this morning.
    No change to the thunderstorm index which remains at a 2 which is MODERATE since there is a threat for severe weather but nothing widespread. In addition the storm prediction center has parts of SNE in the general risk thunderstorm category for tomorrow. Will see if they upgrade that to a slight risk when they issue the day 2 update around 1:30 this afternoon but lets get through today first.

  3. Last evening, Dr. Greg Forbes was talking about the possibility of tornadoes
    In NE due to Sw surface winds and NW winds aloft along with juicy air and plenty of lift. Givent that, he only rated us 2-3 on the TorCon index. It is a 2 as of this morning.
    Something to watch, anyway.

    Have a great day all.

  4. From the NWS This Morning:

    INSTABILITY PARAMETERS ARE QUITE FAVORABLE FOR SCT
    STRONG TO SEVERE TSTMS TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON ALONG AN
    APPROACHING COLD FRONT. CAPES UP TO 2000 J/KG WITH STEEP MID
    LEVEL LAPSE RATES GREATER THAN 7 C/KM…PERHAPS INDICATIVE OF A
    MODIFIED EML ENVIRONMENT. DEEP LAYER 0-6KM SHEAR IS MARGINAL WITH
    VALUES 25-30 KT BUT THIS SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO GET SOME
    ORGANIZATION GIVEN MAGNITUDE OF INSTABILITY. MAGNITUDE OF SHEAR
    LIKELY NOT STRONG ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SUPERCELLS UNLESS VALUES
    INCREASE TO 35-40 KT…SO MULTICELLULAR CONVECTION WILL BE THE
    PRIMARY MODE. DAMAGING WIND AND LARGE HAIL THE MAIN THREAT WITH
    TSTMS.

  5. From the Severe Storms Prediction Center this AM:

    …NORTHEAST/MID ATLANTIC THIS AFTN AND EARLY EVE…
    RESIDUAL EML PLUME BEING DRAWN ESEWD AHEAD OF AMPLIFYING ERN
    CANADIAN TROUGH…IN CONJUNCTION WITH SFC HEATING…SUFFICIENTLY
    MOIST LOW LVL ENVIRONMENT…AND 30-40 KT NNWLY DEEP SHEAR WILL
    SUPPORT WDLY SCTD TO SCTD STORMS POSING A THREAT FOR HAIL AND
    LOCALLY DMGG WIND. SOME OF THE STORMS BRIEFLY MAY ASSUME SUPERCELL
    CHARACTERISTICS. WHILE WEAK LOW LVL CONVERGENCE SHOULD LIMIT STORM
    COVERAGE…PRESENCE OF SUBSTANTIAL DEEP DIRECTIONAL SHEAR WITH
    RELATIVELY STEEP LOW TO MID LVL LAPSE RATES SUGGEST THAT SVR
    POTENTIAL WILL BE SUFFICIENTLY GREAT TO WARRANT EXTENSION OF SLIGHT
    RISK AREA WWD INTO OH AND SWD INTO MD/DE. THE STORMS MAY EVOLVE
    INTO SEVERAL SMALL CLUSTERS/BROKEN BANDS AS THEY MOVE/DEVELOP
    SEWD…WITH A DIMINISHING THREAT FOR ISOLD SVR WIND AND POSSIBLY
    HAIL CONTINUING INTO THIS EVE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION AND PARTS
    OF NEW ENGLAND.

    We shall see as usual.

  6. Your right Old Salty we shall see what develops. The sunshine is out, the dew points are getting up there, and we have the front coming through to provide the lift needed for thunderstorms. I saw Greg Forbes this morning give that 2 for New England on the tor con index and as they say you could never rule out a tornado but I think it is a very low chance.

  7. Any more info on soon-to-be Emily? I’m still in the lesser Antilles and from what I’m hearing, we’re going to get whacked with something. The meteorologists on tv down here are a joke and the only weather site I can load with such slow and limited Internet access is this one since it’s all text. Looks like it’ll affect Tues-Wed-Thurs and we are supposed to fly back to Boston on Wednesday afternoon… Think we should extend our stay (in a first floor condo just 30 feet from the high tide mark) and ride it out? Or do you think it’ll be bad enough that we should buy another earlier (Tues morn) flight and leave before it hits? Thanks for helping a girl out. Trying to find out reliable info down here is like snorkeling without a mask…

  8. Hurricane Hunters are flying around the system and as of now they have not found an area of low pressure at the surface. It is becoming better organized and I would expect if this does form into a depression that tropical storm watches or warnings may be needed for parts of the Lesser Antilles. There is weak shear and plenty of warm water for this system to develop. I am thinking Tuesday is the day for impact with whatever this is going to become.

  9. One thing I have noticed this morning with these showers and thunderstorms in Upstate NY is they look like pulse type storms where they blow up and weaken quickly. Will see if that trend continues here in SNE should any thunderstorms develop.

    1. Hi JJ.

      It sure has gotten hot and humid, no lacking in fuel for whatever develops to feed on, all the way to the coast too.

  10. Hmmm….

    No Severe Thunderstorm Watch?? Interesting.

    Some of the current storms have tops of 34,000 feet with golf ball sized hail.

    We shall see what they do as they march towards the coastal plain.

  11. Clouds just beginning to build in Framingham but have gone from high thin clouds to thicker and darker in a matter of a minutes

  12. A warning went out in the Amherst area and reported a cell sitting nearly stationary over that area and producing about 3 inches of rain so far.

  13. Isolated severe weather is popping up across parts of SNE. There is one storm not only producing severe weather near the CT River Valley area but it has also prompted a flash flood warning.

  14. Severe Thunderstorm Watch went up until 10:00pm and already some storms that have reached severe levels. Heavy rain, vivid lightning, gusty winds, and hail look to be the big threats with these storms.

  15. I wonder what took so long?

    That one storm out by Worcester has tops to 41,000 feet with hail
    1.25 inches in diameter. I’d say that one is severe for sure.

    I wonder how they will be as they approach the coast?

  16. Those thunderstorms out west have stayed in place for quiet a while. They are forecasted to move east but they have not. Is there some type of mechanism that will allow this to happen or will they stay to the west of 495 again.

  17. Its a double whammy for those areas since it is not just the severe weather but also the possibility of flash flooding.

  18. Coastal,

    I agree. Something funky is going on.

    We shall see when the whole mechanism shifts eastward, which it will.

  19. The cell I mentioned at 2:10 had been in the same location for a while before that and has barely moved since that. The clouds continue to thicken here but no storms/rain.

  20. The STW is up until 10PM. Looks like the translation of dynamics Eastward
    will be a slow process. The NWS did mention “Pulsing” T-storms.

    Just wonder how much punch will be left.

  21. I found this:

    A pulse storm is a thunderstorm that produces strong to severe weather in a short period of time. The environmental conditions conducive to pulse storms are strong CAPE and weak wind shear. The strong CAPE contributes to a strong thunderstorm updraft. Strong and severe thunderstorms often have strong updrafts associated with them. The weak wind shear is what causes the duration of the storm to be small. Contributing to weak shear are weak upper tropospheric winds and weak winds within the troposphere in general. Since the shear is weak, the downdraft will fall into the vicinity of the updraft and cut off the inflow into the updraft. The downdraft will also reduce the momentum within the updraft.

    Not sure if this explains what is going on or not?

    1. The Pulse storm also shows cyclic development and redevelopment, hence the term ‘pulse’. Each cell does not last long, but can be quite intense at maturity. When they collapse, the outflow from one cell will often kick off a new one.

  22. There is much cloudiness being blown off of those semi-stationary storms.
    I’d wager this will reduce the energy available when the dynamics shift East.
    I don’t think we will see severe weather in Eastern Sections. But I’m no Met and
    could easily be wrong. Curious to see.

    1. Old salty I was wondering if the cloud cover over this area would hinder the storm development. While the clouds are thick over framingham there was blue sky with white clouds to the south when I looked about 20 minutes ago

  23. I was watching Pete Bouchard at 4:00 pm and he mentioned about a report of a funnel cloud over Chicopee. Pete also said that the Boston area won’t see the effects of any severe storms until 7:00-8:00 pm and around 9:00-10:00 pm for the Cape & Islands.

    Based on all that I would say that we have little to worry about in eastern sections for quite awhile yet…plus no crackling noise for now on AM radio.

        1. I bet the “funnel” was associated with what would have been a “landspout” and not a true tornadic development.

  24. TorCon index still at a 2 for all of New Enland:

    •2: Very low chance of a tornado, but hail and/or strong wind gusts possible

    As JJ says, probably not much of a chance for a tornado, but a 2 still means it is
    possible.

  25. TK

    What is your take on Forbes? Does he mail it in sometimes? Or does he always
    take his TorCon index very seriously? I mean he shouldn’t have it at 2, if it really
    should be at 0.

    Curious?

    1. I’ve never really been able to figure Forbes out. But I think he may have been a mailman in a former life…if that tells you anything.

  26. Tk,

    Many Thanks

    LOL!!

    You made my day!! OK, then for these type of situations I’ll stick with
    the Severe Storms Predicition Center for any tornado assessment.

    Hey, just wondering…. Do you know a met by the name of Mike Murray out of
    the New Jersey Area?

  27. TK,

    OK. Many thanks

    Mike used to forecast on Some NYC radio stations
    and way back when used the handle SNONUT.
    I got to know him from a usergroup on the Web during the 90s.

    He was a good guy and forecasted much like you do.

  28. Landspouts are actually quite common but would often be missed around here because of the lack of dust. Unlike their tornadic cousins, landspouts are more closely related to true waterspouts, in that they do not need a rotating thunderstorm to develop, and are a weaker (relative to tornadoes) vortex often on the front side of a rapidly developing storm. I observed one on Saturday June 18 1988 from a hill in Woburn, that caused a dust whirl on the ground (it was in Lexington) that rose up into the cloud base. A rapidly developing storm was there, that then broke on Woburn with torrential rain, and lots of lightning, at 6PM that evening.

      1. They can cause damage but usually in small areas and not as bad as tornado damage. A landspout can be thought of as a glorified dust devil with a big ego and a cloud on top of it. Again note that they don’t always have dust in their circulations, that just depends on where they are.

  29. You may remember a video from several years back of a guy in Texas with 6 tornadoes visible at the same time, basically surrounding him. They were all, in fact, land spouts.

  30. Sure doesn’t look like more storms tonight. I’m a little disappointed but don’t tell anyone 🙂

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