Tuesday Forecast

53 Comments

7:32AM

DAYS 1-5 (OCTOBER 30-NOVEMBER 3)
A cool high pressure area moves into the region today then sinks to the south Wednesday allow a temperature moderation. The weather looks decent for both the Red Sox World Series victory parade in the late morning to early afternoon as well as trick-or-treat activities in the evening. A cold front will get closer to the region from the north Wednesday night into Thursday and may get across southern NH into parts of northern MA before pushing back to the north by early Friday, which will end up a wet day as a wave of low pressure moves up from the southwest. An additional wave may prolong wet weather into early Saturday before it departs and drier and cooler air overtakes the region. Forecast details…
TODAY: Mostly sunny to partly cloudy. Highs 48-55. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.
TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 26-34. Diminishing NW wind.
WEDNESDAY: Partly cloudy. Highs 55-62. Wind W 5-15 MPH.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Lows 48-55. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.
THURSDAY: Variably cloudy. Highs 58-65. Wind SW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.
FRIDAY: Cloudy. Numerous rain showers. Chance of thunderstorms. Lows from the lower to middle 50s. Highs from the upper 50s to lower 60s.
SATURDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of rain early. Lows in the 40s. Highs in the 50s.

DAYS 6-10 (NOVEMBER 4-8)
Fair November 4-5. Unsettled weather later November 6 through early November 8. Temperatures near to above normal, but coolest very early and very late in the period.

DAYS 11-15 (NOVEMBER 9-13)
Dry and cooler, then moderating. Unsettled weather may return later in the period.

53 thoughts on “Tuesday Forecast”

  6. Following the SSTs for the season, here is the latest from Boston Buoy, located
    16 Nautical miles East of Boston:

    Current Water Temp: 53.6
    Average: 52.34
    Departure: 1.26

    https://imgur.com/a/6XZZ5Wp

    As the water temperature slowly cools, the average goes down as well.

    It appears, however, that the anomaly is slowly diminishing.

    Given that, I expect the anomaly to increase a bit by week’s end due to the milder
    weather this week and more SW winds transporting milder SSTs NE to our
    area. Plus I don’t know what effect, if any, the ocean currents will have this week.

    Will continue to monitor.

    FWIW, at this time several years ago for the Snotober event, the Boston Buoy temperature was 52 IIRC.

    So, we are above average, but not by a large amount. In short, for snow enthusiasts, we “should” be ok for the Winter season.

    1. Btw, fwiw here is how I came up with the averages:

      From the NOAA site, I downloaded a text file for every year they had going back to 1984. The data looks like this:

      YYYY MM DD hh WD WSPD GST WVHT DPD APD MWD BAR ATMP WTMP DEWP VIS TIDE
      2003 01 01 00 153 0.6 1.2 0.99 6.67 5.03 999 1012.8 4.7 6.0 4.6 99.0 99.00
      2003 01 01 01 183 3.4 3.8 0.93 6.67 4.92 999 1012.6 4.7 6.0 4.6 99.0 99.00
      2003 01 01 02 180 4.2 5.0 0.89 6.25 4.91 999 1011.8 5.0 6.0 4.9 99.0 99.00
      2003 01 01 03 207 6.4 7.4 0.80 6.67 4.89 999 1011.1 5.9 6.0 5.8 99.0 99.00
      2003 01 01 04 204 7.3 8.2 0.70 6.67 4.73 999 1010.3 6.0 6.0 5.3 99.0 99.00
      2003 01 01 05 211 5.0 6.3 0.69 6.67 4.08 999 1009.6 6.6 6.0 5.3 99.0 99.00
      2003 01 01 06 235 6.4 7.8 0.67 2.70 3.68 999 1010.9 6.4 6.0 5.0 99.0 99.00
      2003 01 01 07 245 6.6 8.3 0.64 7.69 3.66 999 1011.3 6.1 6.0 4.8 99.0 99.00
      2003 01 01 08 233 7.3 8.7 0.64 7.14 3.81 999 1012.4 6.3 6.0 4.7 99.0 99.00
      2003 01 01 09 225 5.6 6.9 0.58 7.14 3.76 999 1012.5 6.3 6.0 4.5 99.0 99.00
      2003 01 01 10 222 6.1 6.9 0.60 6.67 4.35 999 1012.7 6.6 6.0 4.7 99.0 99.00
      2003 01 01 11 234 6.5 7.6 0.62 7.14 4.03 999 1013.4 6.3 6.0 4.5 99.0 99.00
      2003 01 01 12 247 5.7 6.8 0.63 6.67 4.80 999 1014.3 5.9 6.0 4.3 99.0 99.00
      2003 01 01 13 260 5.0 5.8 0.56 6.67 4.59 999 1015.0 5.9 6.0 4.2 99.0 99.00
      2003 01 01 14 273 5.0 5.9 0.51 6.25 4.62 999 1015.8 5.9 6.0 3.0 99.0 99.00
      2003 01 01 15 280 4.6 5.6 0.46 7.69 4.67 999 1017.3 5.8 6.0 2.7 99.0 99.00
      2003 01 01 16 320 4.1 4.6 0.41 7.14 5.36 999 1016.6 5.6 6.0 1.6 99.0 99.00
      2003 01 01 17 322 4.6 5.4 0.33 7.14 5.40 999 1015.9 5.5 6.0 1.1 99.0 99.00
      2003 01 01 18 330 5.3 6.7 0.33 7.14 4.90 999 1015.3 5.5 6.0 0.1 99.0 99.00
      2003 01 01 19 340 5.6 6.2 0.44 2.63 3.57 999 1015.8 5.2 6.0 -0.8 99.0 99.00
      2003 01 01 20 340 5.0 5.9 0.49 2.94 3.35 999 1015.8 5.1 6.0 -1.1 99.0 99.00
      2003 01 01 21 5 7.4 8.7 0.57 2.70 3.34 999 1014.3 4.6 5.9 -0.3 99.0 99.00
      2003 01 01 22 15 7.2 9.4 0.60 3.13 3.51 999 1014.2 4.8 5.9 1.8 99.0 99.00
      2003 01 01 23 34 7.5 8.7 0.81 3.45 3.48 999 1014.3 4.7 5.9 2.4 99.0 99.00
      2003 01 02 00 48 9.7 11.0 0.88 3.70 3.61 999 1014.0 4.3 5.9 2.5 99.0 99.00
      2003 01 02 01 42 11.8 14.4 1.19 4.17 3.79 999 1012.0 4.0 6.0 2.4 99.0 99.00
      2003 01 02 02 38 11.8 14.1 1.41 4.76 4.15 999 1011.2 4.3 6.0 2.8 99.0 99.00
      2003 01 02 03 40 12.5 15.6 1.93 5.26 4.59 999 1010.0 4.4 6.0 2.9 99.0 99.00
      2003 01 02 04 35 12.9 15.3 2.00 5.88 4.78 999 1008.9 4.3 6.0 2.9 99.0 99.00
      2003 01 02 05 33 14.8 18.5 2.58 6.25 5.22 999 1007.2 4.0 6.0 2.6 99.0 99.00
      2003 01 02 06 31 14.2 18.1 3.15 7.14 5.66 999 1007.5 3.2 999.0 1.8 99.0 99.00
      2003 01 02 07 28 15.5 19.3 3.37 7.69 5.98 999 1006.6 2.9 6.0 1.8 99.0 99.00
      2003 01 02 08 16 15.7 19.1 3.66 8.33 6.18 999 1006.3 2.2 6.0 1.0 99.0 99.00
      2003 01 02 09 18 16.6 20.8 4.08 8.33 6.46 999 1006.2 2.1 5.9 1.1 99.0 99.00
      2003 01 02 10 8 16.6 20.7 4.47 8.33 6.74 999 1006.8 0.8 5.9 -0.1 99.0 99.00
      2003 01 02 11 10 16.2 20.1 4.51 8.33 6.84 999 1008.8 -0.7 5.9 -2.0 99.0 99.00
      2003 01 02 12 8 16.9 20.9 4.03 8.33 6.57 999 1009.1 -1.4 5.9 -2.6 99.0 99.00
      2003 01 02 13 360 15.6 18.7 4.34 9.09 6.89 999 1011.5 -1.7 5.9 -3.1 99.0 99.00
      2003 01 02 14 354 14.7 18.5 4.24 10.00 6.86 999 1013.0 -2.3 5.9 -3.9 99.0 99.00
      2003 01 02 15 348 13.9 17.0 4.07 9.09 7.05 999 1015.4 -2.7 5.9 -4.8 99.0 99.00
      2003 01 02 16 357 13.0 16.1 4.21 10.00 7.21 999 1014.8 -3.0 5.9 -4.7 99.0 99.00
      2003 01 02 17 355 13.0 16.4 3.75 10.00 6.97 999 1015.0 -3.1 5.9 -5.2 99.0 99.00
      2003 01 02 18 350 11.6 15.7 3.77 10.00 6.93 999 1016.1 -2.6 5.9 -5.1 99.0 99.00
      2003 01 02 19 353 11.0 13.9 3.24 9.09 6.67 999 1018.0 -2.6 5.9 -5.6 99.0 99.00
      2003 01 02 20 5 11.3 14.1 3.27 9.09 6.52 999 1018.1 -1.9 5.8 -5.2 99.0 99.00
      2003 01 02 21 7 11.2 15.6 3.48 9.09 6.64 999 1019.5 -1.2 5.8 -5.3 99.0 99.00
      2003 01 02 22 17 11.2 14.6 3.22 9.09 6.50 999 1020.5 -0.4 5.8 -4.5 99.0 99.00
      2003 01 02 23 27 10.6 13.6 3.40 9.09 6.79 999 1021.1 -0.2 5.8 -5.5 99.0 99.00
      2003 01 03 00 26 9.8 12.7 3.19 9.09 6.52 999 1022.1 0.1 5.8 -4.6 99.0 99.00
      2003 01 03 01 35 9.8 12.2 3.08 9.09 6.40 999 1022.6 0.4 5.8 -4.9 99.0 99.00
      2003 01 03 02 37 10.0 12.2 3.10 9.09 6.33 999 1022.6 0.5 5.8 -4.6 99.0 99.00
      2003 01 03 03 35 9.8 12.3 3.15 9.09 6.57 999 1023.1 0.5 5.8 -4.5 99.0 99.00
      2003 01 03 04 44 9.0 11.9 2.83 9.09 6.42 999 1023.5 0.5 5.8 -4.7 99.0 99.00
      2003 01 03 05 57 9.0 11.8 2.61 8.33 6.24 999 1022.7 0.9 5.8 -4.1 99.0 99.00

      I opened up Excel and did a text to data and saved as an Excel workbook.

      Then I imported each of those for each year into an Access database.
      I then created a query that computed the average, standard deviation and
      variance. Then I wrote a VB module to create an XML file with that
      data for each day of the year. Then I uploaded the XML file to my mobile app
      and created some special screens to display the date such that it displays it
      for the current date, plus I did an select such that it will display
      the data for any date selected.

      I could not find a suitable site for the average, so I took matters into my
      own hands.

  7. Eric spoke of possible shenanigans for Friday.

    Shear is there. Here is a NAM helicity Loop:

    https://climate.cod.edu/data/forecast/animations/06Z-20181030_NAMNE_con_1kmhel-0-84-10-100.gif

    One thing to note: CAPE is lacking. In fact from the NAM it is non-existent.

    For a High-shear, low-CAPE (HSLC) event we need at least some CAPE.
    Preferrably at least 500 joules, but can happen with less. But, I don’t see how
    it happens with ZERO CAPE???????

    Perhaps something happens between now and then to provide some CAPE.
    If so, watch out.

  8. Hopefully were done with tornadoes for 2018 but Friday looks to be a day to just keep an eye on at this point.

  9. Thank you, TK.

    Thanks for sharing Dr. Judah Cohen’s blog, JP Dave. I laughed when you said the following:

    “Just read Dr. Cohen’s blog. It is mind boggling and very very tough read.

    My take: Things are up in the air, but could get very interesting. We shall see.
    Some mixed signals.”

    Yes, when someone erudite doesn’t want to commit to a prediction about the future – due to conflicting trend data – he or she tends to resort to jargon-filled hedging. I get it. In economics there are plenty of experts who do the same when the uncertainty component in the model is significant. The problem for economists is that no matter how erudite or how sophisticated the model predictions tend to be inaccurate, and often wildly off base. Sit 12 economists in a room and ask them to predict when the next recession will hit, and you’ll probably get 12 different answers.

  11. 12Z GFS is totally devoid of helicity for Friday and/or Saturday very much unlike
    the NAM??????????????????????????????????

    1. Not complaining, just wondering what’s up. That is a HUGE difference
      between those 2 models.

      Right now, waiting on the Euro for more clarification.

  12. Ok, Euro looking much more interesting. I think the GFS is out to lunch today having a peanut butter and jelly sandwich.

    Some Euro charts for 12Z Friday. We’ll see if it gets more interesting or not later
    in the day and/or Saturday.

    https://imgur.com/a/Za3UP7S

  13. I have to figure out which charts to display.

    I know it’s still early, BUT right now, the 12Z Euro is advertising a severe out break in the wee hours of Saturday to about 8 or 9AM.

    Sweat Index is off the charts as is Total Totals.
    Helicity values very high. Has juicy low passing “just’ to our NW and we
    are primed for action. LCL levels are about 50 meters.

    Let me get my thoughts together….I may be delayed as I may be called into a meeting shortly.

  14. The EURO to me is a conservative model when it comes to severe weather parameters. It does not often go bonkers when it comes to those parameters. Plenty of time to still watch this.

      1. WTF????????????????????????

        I typed it in and it still was not happy_)!@*#()!@()#&*!*()@&#

        Severe storms possible starting at 52 and tornadoes possible
        at 55+

  17. NWS not yet talking about any type of severe weather, but their main comment
    was: This could be a wet and wild storm, and will continue to be
    monitored.

    Friday-Saturday…

    A more prominent surface low develops along the front along the
    Central Gulf Coast and moves northeast to New York. A 160-kt upper
    jet does the pushing Friday, while a 50-60 kt low level jet moves up
    the coast. The upper jet will generate strong lift, with vertical
    motion of about 50 mb/hour. The low level jet will bring gusty
    southwest winds, especially the South Coast and Islands. It will
    also transport Gulf moisture into New England and generate lift over
    the stalled front. Precipitable water values climb to 1.5-1.7
    inches, which would be about 2 Std Dev above normal for early
    November. Expect rain, heavy at times, through the day. Stability
    parameters are favorable for thunder, especially over CT and Western
    Mass. This could be a wet and wild storm, and will continue to be
    monitored.

  18. Looking quickly at tropical tidbits EURO does have 998 low going west of us overnight Fri into early Sat am.

    1. JJ, I have seen that the SREF isn’t tuned into
      High-shear, low-CAPE (HSLC) environments very well at all.

      The NAM, especially the 3KM NAM, the HRRR and the Euro do a much
      better job picking up on this.

      We shall see as it is still 4-5 days out.

      1. Here is a link to a paper on the high-shear, low-CAPE (HSLC) environments.

        First an excerpt:

        Conventional techniques for forecasting significant severe weather have been noted to perform poorly in HSLC environments (Guyer and Dean 2010; R. Thompson 2012, personal communication). Additionally, the compressed nature of HSLC convection (Davies 1990; Markowski and Straka 2000; McAvoy et al. 2000; Cope 2004) may result in poor radar sampling, as shallow or small-scale circulations may not be adequately resolved by the existing Weather Surveillance Radar-1988 Doppler (WSR-88D) network, particularly at greater distances from the radar (Davis and Parker 2012). HSLC environments can also produce severe weather with little or no cloud-to-ground lightning (Davies 1990; McAvoy et al. 2000; Cope 2004; van den Broeke et al. 2005). The combination of the preceding factors suggests a critical need for a better understanding of the environmental features discriminating between HSLC severe convection and nonsevere convection, both to improve operational forecasts and to advance our understanding.

        Link:

        https://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/10.1175/WAF-D-13-00041.1

    1. I think based on current timing, afternoon looks worse down that way. But I would check again. This is based largely on the NAM which I think has an ok idea at this point.

        1. I was thinking more regionally and basing it on the NAM’s idea with my own adjustments added in. 🙂

    2. If one goes by the 12Z NAM, 5 Am to 8AM would be workse than 3PM to 8PM.
      18Z NAM coming out now. CMC agrees. GFS agrees.

    3. Thank you both. I am heading north early am and wife and kids are driving up after 3pm. I’ll check back on Thursday. Thanks again!

      1. I’ll have to search. My main contact who usually knows all this is in the process of moving so he’s probably not fully updated.

      1. I love that show, too, Coastal.

        The host is of Dutch descent. It’s low-key, informative, and takes me places I’ve been and others I haven’t.

Comments are closed.