C-19 Chat Post – 4-10-2022

DAYS 1-5 (APRIL 9-13)

The weekend is upon us, and this second weekend of April will feature “OK” weather by the standards of many people, but far from ideal. But we must keep in mind as I often mention, that the spring season in many parts of the US, including our own area, is a time of variability and volatility, the result of those lessening but lingering pushes of cold air from Canada as the winter snow cover retreats battling with the early pushes of warmth and humidity invading areas to our south. We sit in the battle zone often, and will do so in the days ahead. I never bought an often-advertised multi-day warm up to the 70s, and I still do not. But let’s back up a bit and look at this weekend. We have to deal with upper level low pressure which has to traverse the Northeast from west to east, and will do so through Sunday. With the core of this upper low still to the west today, we’ll see a surface low pressure area quickly develop and move right across New England, the center passing just west of the WHW forecast area midday and afternoon. We’ll see 2 rounds of showers and potential thunderstorms as this system passes through – the first later this morning moving generally south to north along a warm front, and another during the afternoon along a cold front that swings through from west to east. The greatest concentration of showers and possible thunderstorms should occur near and north of I-90, and a few of them may contain brief downpours of rain and even some small hail. By later afternoon, it’s gone, and we quiet down for evening. During Sunday, the upper low will be continuing its trek across the region, so after a sunny start, we’ll see lots of clouds developing with a few rain showers possible during the afternoon, before these dissipate with the setting sun. During the first half of next week, we’ll sit near a frontal boundary once again, so the previously-advertised sunny warm stretch you may have caught via some media (not here) will not really be how things play out. As previously stated, when we are in this pattern, we have to watch for disturbances running along the boundary, and we have to watch for the impact the colder ocean water has on our region, especially coastal areas. Monday, a small bubble of high pressure passing just to the south of us, with our region on the northern side of it, means a general westerly air flow and fair/mild weather, but the wind field should be weak enough that a few coastal areas may flip to a sea breeze during the day. Monday night, a disturbance from the west comes along with more clouds and the chance of a little bit of light rainfall. This exits Tuesday leaving us with partial clearing and while it warms up inland we’ll need to watch for onshore breezes at the coast where it can be considerably cooler. While other forecasts advertise fair and warm weather for Wednesday, I’m not nearly convinced of this, as we may see yet another disturbance bring clouds, potential showers, and again a cooler coastline while it’s mild inland. There’s still enough uncertainty heading toward midweek that some adjustment to that part of the forecast may be needed.

TODAY: Mostly cloudy with scattered showers passing by south to north mid morning to midday. Variably cloudy remainder of day with additional rain showers and possible thunderstorms passing through from west to east, a few of which may contain small hail, coming to an end by late in the day. Highs 56-63, coolest coast. Wind SE-S 5-15 MPH during the morning, shifting to SW-W during the afternoon, with a few higher gusts possible.

TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 38-45. Wind W 5-15 MPH, shifting to NW.

SUNDAY: Mostly sunny start, then variably cloudy. Scattered showers afternoon. Highs 51-58. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 38-45. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 55-62, coolest coast. Wind W 5-15 MPH becoming variable up to 10 MPH with coastal sea breeze possible in the afternoon.

MONDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers. Lows 43-50. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy early, then partly sunny. Highs 54-61, coolest coast. Wind variable up to 10 MPH with coastal sea breezes.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 38-45. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of light rain. Highs 55-60 coast, 60-65 inland. Wind variable to SE 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (APRIL 14-18)

A stronger low pressure area may track west and north of our region April 14-15 with a varying amount of cloudiness and eventually a shower potential. The trend is for a cooler westerly air flow for the April 16-17 weekend, but this part of the forecast is lower confidence, as is the end of the period when we may have to watch for a coastal disturbance with the threat of rainfall and even the potential for some inland mix/snow as colder air may be around at that time.

DAYS 11-15 (APRIL 19-23)

This part of the forecast also continues to be low confidence. Leaning toward the zonal (west to east) flow pattern with variable temperatures and a couple unsettled weather threats difficult to focus and time so far in advance.

C-19 Chat Post – 4-9-2022

DAYS 1-5 (APRIL 8-12)

Low pressure moving across the region early this morning has produce showers and in some cases thunderstorms, which were quite potent on the MA South Coast up to the South Shore. While the heaviest activity has now moved offshore and is racing away into the Gulf of Maine (as of the time of this writing) we’ll still have some lingering shower activity around with patches of fog as well until the low pressure area gets north of our latitude. At that time, a drying westerly air flow will replace the damp easterly one. Improvement comes by midday, and the afternoon will be quite nice overall, including being rather mild in comparison to the last couple days. All we have to watch for is a pop up shower that is possible, especially over interior locations, later in the afternoon through the early evening hours. Our weekend will be so-so, but far from what we have just gone through. Upper level low pressure has to cross the region from west to east. Saturday, while we are still on the eastern side of this low, we’re quite vulnerable to showery weather especially as another surface low forms and scoots through the region. The timing for showers looks highest in the morning and midday hours, and we should see some improvement after. Sunday, the shower threat is still there, but lower, and focused on afternoon, with the cold pool of air associated with the upper low still over us. I’ve doubted previous medium range forecasts for a flip to just fair and warm weather by early next week, and this doubt remains in force. Yes, it looks better both Monday & Tuesday with small areas of high pressure in control, but between them a disturbance, likely the first in a series, will move through with some unsettled weather Monday night. This timing is obviously not set in stone – but looks this way at this time.

TODAY: Cloudy morning with areas of fog, scattered showers, and isolated thunderstorms. Sun/cloud mix afternoon with a slight chance of a shower. Highs 58-65, coolest South Coast. Wind E to variable 5-15 MPH early becoming W 5-15 MPH with higher gusts.

TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 38-45. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY: Mostly cloudy with scattered to numerous showers morning-midday, then partly cloudy. Highs 56-63. Wind SW 5-15 MPH shifting to W.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 38-45. Wind W 5-15 MPH, shifting to NW.

SUNDAY: Partly sunny. Isolated showers mainly afternoon. Highs 51-58. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 38-45. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 55-62. Wind variable up to 10 MPH, coastal sea breezes possible.

MONDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers. Lows 43-50. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 54-61. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (APRIL 13-17)

We’ll be near a boundary zone between chilly Canadian air and warmer air in much of the US Mid Atlantic and Southeast. Where have we heard this before? It’s going to be difficult to pin down details, but right now I’d put the odds at fair weather highest at both ends of this forecast period and odds of unsettled weather highest in the middle, however the entire period may be vulnerable to unsettled weather and certainly some temperature variability. There will be a lot of fine-tuning to do with this forecast.

DAYS 11-15 (APRIL 18-22)

Very low confidence forecast. Expecting an overall zonal flow pattern with a couple minor disturbances bringing brief rainfall threats in a regime of mostly dry weather and seasonable though slightly variable temperatures.

C-19 Chat Post – 4-8-2022

DAYS 1-5 (APRIL 7-11)

We’ve a case of the Aprils – the real Aprils, not the false Aprils. Often, this month is depicted as being a month full of sunshine, warmth, and emerging flowers. While we can have plenty of days with warm sunshine, and yes we are seeing our first flowers emerge and will see many more to follow, the reality is and has always been that our weather in April is variable, often cool, and frequently unsettled. We have a case of the latter – the real Aprils – right now, as we sit in a stretch of unsettled and fairly cool (but not overly cold) weather. It can be a lot worse, like on this day in 1982 when, the day after a major snowstorm, the temperature sat in the teens to lower 20s with wind chill dipping to the single digits – all day long – while we dug out from 10 to 16 inches of snowfall. What’s going on now is far more typical. Yesterday, one storm system scooted by to our south, bringing a period of rain, and just as that one has moved out, we are already under the cloud canopy of the next system, although breaks are allowing areas of sun early today. This next system consists of a large, mature low pressure area spinning in the Great Lakes, underneath its upper level low pressure partner. An occluded front arcs out from that low and approaches us from the west today. Where its triple-point is, we’ll see a new surface low pressure area develop today, and it is that low that will move north northeastward, right across our region, tonight and early Friday, with another round of rain and even some thunderstorms. Preceding that will just be a few showers that may wander into the area this afternoon. Once the new surface low passes our area early Friday, we’ll see improvement, some clearing, and milder air, but there still can be a few pop-up showers due to cooling air aloft during the afternoon on Friday. The weekend will be when that old surface low and upper level low pressure area have to drift eastward across our region, and this means a cooling trend with additional rain shower threats. The greatest threat for the rain showers will be Saturday as that is when we will see our most unstable air. So not a terrible weekend, but definitely at least partially unsettled, especially the first half. Once we get to Monday, high pressure is in control and it’s fair and slightly milder again.

TODAY: Broken clouds allowing partial sunshine at times this morning. Generally cloudy with isolated to scattered rain showers this afternoon. Highs 47-54. Wind SE 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Overcast. Scattered to numerous rain showers in the evening. Widespread rain showers and possible thunderstorms overnight. Fog areas. Temperatures steady 47-54. Wind SE 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

FRIDAY: Cloudy with additional rain showers around during the morning. Partly sunny with a slight chance of a passing rain shower in the afternoon. Highs 57-64. Wind variable up to 10 MPH early becoming W 5-15 MPH with higher gusts.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 38-45. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY: Variably cloudy. Scattered rain showers mainly midday-afternoon. Highs 56-63. Wind W 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 40-47. Wind W 5-15 MPH, gusty.

SUNDAY: Partly sunny. Isolated rain showers mainly afternoon. Highs 51-58. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, gusty.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 38-45. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 55-62. Wind variable up to 10 MPH, coastal sea breezes possible.

DAYS 6-10 (APRIL 12-16)

I still don’t completely trust “the warm up” with fair weather all the way. Chances there for a disturbance and some cloudiness and even some rainfall threat during a transition or attempt for warmer air to move in early in the period. I think we do warm up for a day or two (target April 13-14), but by April 15 already see a rain shower threat with a frontal system moving through, leading to a drier but cooler end to the period. Still not a very high confidence forecast.

DAYS 11-15 (APRIL 17-21)

Low confidence forecast of a zonal flow pattern and a couple minor disturbances bringing brief rainfall threats in a regime of mostly dry weather and seasonable though slightly variable temperatures.

C-19 Chat Post – 4-7-2022

DAYS 1-5 (APRIL 6-10)

Quite a number of days ago we talked about watching the April 6-8 period for unsettled weather. Well, here it is. We’ll be impacted by several low pressure areas over the next few days, with lingering impacts even into the weekend. This is how it breaks down. Today, the first low pressure area will be moving eastward and taking a track just to the south of New England. We’ll be on the northern side of its envelope of rain, which will have its greatest impact on the WHW forecast area from mid morning to midday, heaviest to the south of I-90, then taper to just drizzle and patchy light rain later in the day. A region-wide easterly air flow off the Atlantic combined with the overcast ensures us of a very chilly and raw feeling day as well. Between this first system, which departs overnight tonight, and the next one which approaches Thursday, enough dry air may work in to cause breaks in the clouds, but we won’t get all that much benefit from that in terms of sun, except for the possibility of seeing a little bit early Thursday, as much of the cloud-breaking time will occur before sunrise. Wet weather comes back in from west to east later Thursday, but we may get through much of the day rain-free. It will still be cool Thursday, but up a few degrees over today. The storm system bringing us this round of wet weather will be more complex than its predecessor, starting out as low pressure in mature to decaying stage entering the Great Lakes, then redeveloping over the northern Middle Atlantic region. It is this redevelopment that will move right up across our region Thursday night and early Friday, bringing us our heaviest rainfall, which will be more in the form of showers with even the chance of some thunder. This system will start to move away during Friday, with partial improvement and milder air moving in, but upper level low pressure still over the Northeast means that we keep a rain shower chance in place during Friday, and even into the weekend, especially Saturday, as it will take a few days for the upper trough to traverse the entire region. We’ll see that rain shower chance drop off Sunday, not to zero, but less than Saturday. The trade-off will be that we’ll also undergo a cooling trend…

TODAY: Overcast. Rain eastern CT, RI, southern MA, expanding northward for several hours, then tapering to drizzle and periods of light rain west to east midday on. Highs 45-52. Wind E 5-15 MPH, 10-20 MPH coast, higher gusts.

TONIGHT: Clouds break. Fog patches linger. Lows 37-44. Wind E 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY: Broken clouds may allow a glimpse of sun around sunrise, then thickening overcast. Rain returns by late-day west to east. Highs 46-53. Wind E-SE 5-15 MPH, higher gusts in coastal areas.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Overcast. Numerous rain showers. Chance of thunderstorms. Areas of fog. Temperatures steady 46-53. Wind SE 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

FRIDAY: Cloudy with additional rain showers around during the morning. Partly sunny with a slight chance of a passing rain shower in the afternoon. Highs 57-64. Wind variable up to 10 MPH early becoming W 10-20 MPH and gusty.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 38-45. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY: Variably cloudy. Scattered rain showers mainly midday-afternoon. Highs 56-63. Wind W 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 40-47. Wind W 5-15 MPH, gusty.

SUNDAY: Partly sunny. Isolated rain showers mainly afternoon. Highs 51-58. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, gusty.

DAYS 6-10 (APRIL 11-15)

The upper level pattern says dry spell and above normal temperatures, but I’m often a little skeptical about how easily we can pull off a stretch for 5 days in April without “something” going wrong, and I am skeptical this time. We need to watch a boundary to the north and high pressure in eastern Canada, often underplayed by medium range guidance, in case we end up with a back-door front or a boundary nearby that becomes a running-board for a disturbance or two. It may not be all sunshine, warmth, and emerging flowers next week, but the pattern does look better than this week at least.

DAYS 11-15 (APRIL 16-20)

The pattern wants to try to stay dry and on the milder side to start, but we may be contending with a large cool pool from Canada by mid to late period. This part of the forecast is very low confidence, however, and is only a step above saying “I have no idea what’s going to happen yet…”

C-19 Chat Post – 4-6-2022

DAYS 1-5 (APRIL 5-9)

High pressure brings fair weather today. Two low pressure systems impact us with unsettled weather midweek lingering a little bit into late week, as surface low pressure moves away but upper level low pressure hangs around.

TODAY: Sun followed by clouds. Highs 52-59, coolest South Coast. Wind variable under 10 MPH becoming S 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Clouding up. Rain by dawn, especially south of I-90. Lows 38-45. Wind SE 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Overcast. Rain likely. Temperatures steady 38-45. Wind E 5-15 MPH interior, 10-20 MPH coast, higher gusts possible.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Areas of light rain/drizzle. Areas of fog. Lows 35-42. Wind NE 5-15 MPH early, then variable.

THURSDAY: Cloudy with periods of rain and areas of drizzle/fog. Highs 40-47. Wind variable to E 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Cloudy with rain tapering off to rain showers. Areas of drizzle/fog evening. Temperatures steady 40-47. Wind E to SE 5-15 MPH, higher gusts in coastal areas.

FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy to partly sunny. Chance of rain showers. Highs 58-65, cooler Cape Cod / South Coast. Wind SE to SW 10-20 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 38-45. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY: Partly sunny. Chance of rain showers. Highs 56-63. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (APRIL 10-14)

Cooler, fair April 10-11. Overall trend remains dry but with potential warming after that, although always have to watch eastern Canada for high pressure and a sneaky back-door cold front.

DAYS 11-15 (APRIL 15-19)

Tricky temperature forecast is play for at least the early part of the period. Overall trend is for drier weather to continue, but this forecast is low confidence.

C-19 Chat Post – 4-5-2022

DAYS 1-5 (APRIL 4-8)

Low pressure is moving away. High pressure is sitting to our west. This combination starts our week with a sun/cloudy mix, cool air and a gusty breeze today. The clouds exit and the wind settles down tonight as high pressure edges closer, and then moves over our area Tuesday, which will be a tranquil, fair, and milder day, but higher clouds will increase later in the day. These clouds are forerunners of our next unsettled weather threat. We’re still looking at impact from two storm systems starting at midweek and lasting into late week. The first system is low pressure passing just to our south Wednesday with rain moving in, and maybe ending as a mix or some snow in higher elevations during the evening hours. A follow up low pressure area, larger in size, takes a track a little further north and pushes its frontal boundaries into our region Thursday and finally through Friday, with additional rainfall especially Thursday and Thursday night, with some lingering rain showers possible Friday. The frontal boundary with that system is expected to be a warm occlusion, so after a couple of chilly days at midweek, Friday will turn out milder with some improvement in the weather.

TODAY: Mostly cloudy early with a few isolated sprinkles of rain around, then a sun/cloud mix. Highs 48-55. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, gusts 20-25 MPH.

TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 33-40. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Sun followed by clouds. Highs 52-59, coolest South Coast. Wind variable under 10 MPH becoming S 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Clouding up. Rain by dawn, especially south of I-90. Lows 38-45. Wind SE 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Overcast. Rain likely. Temperatures steady 38-45. Wind E 5-15 MPH interior, 10-20 MPH coast, higher gusts possible.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Rain tapering off but may end as snow in some interior higher elevations especially southwestern NH / north central MA. Lows 33-40. Wind NE 5-15 MPH early, then variable.

THURSDAY: Cloudy with periods of rain and areas of drizzle/fog. Highs 40-47. Wind variable to E 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Cloudy with rain tapering off to rain showers. Areas of drizzle/fog evening. Temperatures steady 40-47. Wind E to SE 5-15 MPH, higher gusts in coastal areas.

FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy to partly sunny. Chance of rain showers. Highs 58-65, cooler Cape Cod / South Coast. Wind SE to SW 10-20 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (APRIL 9-13)

Upper level low pressure crosses the Northeast on the April 9-10 weekend. Some chance of a few rain showers around both days, greatest Saturday. Cooling trend during the course of the weekend as well. High pressure brings fair weather mid period. A frontal boundary nearby doesn’t look like it will produce much precipitation but makes for a tricky temperature forecast later in the period as by then we may see a cold high pressure area to our north and a warm one to our south.

DAYS 11-15 (APRIL 14-18)

Tricky temperature forecast is play for at least the early part of the period. Overall trend is for drier weather to continue, but this forecast is low confidence.

C-19 Chat Post – 4-4-2022

DAYS 1-5 (APRIL 3-7)

A typical early spring pattern is what we are experiencing at this time. Today’s weather will be a result of low pressure moving eastward out of the southern Great Lakes and into New York and Pennsylvania, which will then redevelop south of Long Island later today then move northeast passing southeast of New England tonight. As clouds thicken up today an area of rain will start to move in from the west, but as it does so, the new system taking shape to the south will become dominant and the area of rain will start to dry up just as colder air works in and starts to make it more possible to mix with and change to snow. For the WHW forecast area, this means that rain is most likely in interior southern NH, central MA, and eastern CT into RI, and less likely to the east, and the northern half of the “most likely” region for rain is also most likely to see a mix with or change to snow sometime tonight, with minor accumulation on unpaved surfaces, before it ends. By then, the better chance of rain will have shifted to Cape Cod and the Islands briefly before the new low center scoots to the northeast. Monday, between that departing system and a small area of high pressure approaching, the weather will be dry but we may see quite a few fair weather clouds popping up along with a gusty northwesterly breeze. As high pressure moves over the region later Monday night into Tuesday, we’ll see the wind settle down and end up with a nice day with lighter wind and a little bit of a warm-up for Tuesday, although high clouds will already be arriving and increasing in advance of our next threat of unsettled weather. Midweek looks wet and cool as 2 low pressure systems impact our region, the first moving out just south of the area on Wednesday but close enough for a steady rainfall, which may even end up as mix/snow over interior higher elevations before ending. The second low pressure system will be a larger system, size-wise, and be tracking a little further north than its predecessor, and this will send an occluding frontal system into our region with more rainfall during Thursday.

TODAY: Clouds thicken. Rain chance highest mid-late afternoon eastern CT, central MA, southwestern to south central NH, with lesser chance to the east. Highs 47-54. Wind variable under 10 MPH then E up to 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Cloudy evening with a chance of rain and snow showers southern NH and north central MA, also rain likely eastern MA, heaviest Cape Cod & Islands. Breaking clouds overnight. Lows 33-40. Wind NE shifting to NW 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY: Partly to mostly cloudy. Highs 48-55. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, gusty.

MONDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 33-40. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Sun followed by clouds. Highs 52-59, coolest South Coast. Wind variable under 10 MPH becoming S 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Clouding up. Lows 38-45. Wind SE 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Overcast. Rain arriving morning and continuing afternoon. Temperatures steady 38-45. Wind E 5-15 MPH interior, 10-20 MPH coast, higher gusts possible.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Rain tapering off but may end as snow in some interior higher elevations especially southwestern NH / north central MA. Lows 33-40. Wind NE 5-15 MPH early, then variable.

THURSDAY: Cloudy with periods of rain and areas of drizzle/fog. Highs 40-47. Wind variable 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (APRIL 8-12)

Surface low pressure passing north of the region sends a frontal boundary through the region April 8 with still the threat of some rain showers but milder air. Drier air arrives for the April 9-10 weekend but upper level low pressure crossing the region means daily diurnal clouds and at least a small chance of a few rain showers, temperatures near to slightly below normal. Peeking ahead a bit more – fair April 11, unsettled April 12, but low confidence.

DAYS 11-15 (APRIL 13-17)

There have been a few pattern hints that we may see a shot of warmer air somewhere in here, but this is always risky to try forecasting too far in advance with any confidence at this time of year with the cold ocean nearby and still plenty of chilly air in Canada. But the overall trend does look at least less unsettled for mid April with plenty of time to sort details.

C-19 Chat Post – 4-3-2022