C-19 Chat Post – 3-11-2022

DAYS 1-5 (MARCH 10-14)

Many parts of our region have a beautiful snowscape this morning with a light snowfall stuck to the trees, but not enough to result in any damage. Grab your camera now (early morning) because in a few short hours it will all be a memory thanks to the strengthening March sun and warming temperatures today under nearly full sunshine (just some passing fair weather clouds this morning and a few high clouds during the afternoon). High pressure moves overhead this evening when we’ll see a fairly quick temperature drop due to radiational cooling, but that drop will slow down overnight as the high moves offshore and a very light southerly air flow arrives. This trend continues Friday with a sun/cloud mix with some increase in high and mid level clouds ahead of our next storm system. That one will play out in a bit more dramatic fashion than its predecessor as low pressure moves rapidly north northeastward over the eastern US and passes right over our area while intensifying during Saturday. Initially it brings a shot of windy, milder air with a decent rainfall, but as it passes, cold air will be set to move in quickly, and may result in an accumulating snowfall in the far western and northwestern portions of the WHW forecast area (central MA and southwestern NH) with possibly a few snow showers making it a little further southeast as the end of the precipitation will generally beat the arrival of the colder air. But what nobody will miss out on is the strong and gusty winds that take place from late Saturday into Sunday behind the departing storm. Along with that, the cold air shot will be quite sharp for this time frame, and we’ll be experiencing single digit and even slightly below zero wind chills, especially during the first 10 hours of Sunday. Brr! Winter’s not quite done with us yet, as the experienced folks here know very well. But here’s some good news. That sharp cold shot is short lived, and by Monday we’ll at least have the feeling of early spring back as we lose the wind and boost the temperature about 15 degrees from Sunday’s readings…

TODAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 45-52. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 24-31. Wind calm evening, S up to 10 MPH overnight.

FRIDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 47-54. Wind S up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Clouding over. Rain likely overnight. Lows 40-47. Wind SE 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY: Cloudy. Rain through mid afternoon, heavy at times and a slight chance of thunderstorms. Rain turning to snow in southwestern NH and higher elevations of central MA later in the day with accumulation possible while rain ends as mix/snow showers late-day into evening further east. Highs 50-57 by midday and early afternoon but a sharp temperature drop west to east late-day. Wind SE-S 10-20 MPH with higher gusts, shifting to W by late in the day.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Chance of snow showers evening. Lows 18-25. Wind W-NW 15-30 MPH, gusts 35-55 MPH. Wind chill falling below 10, occasionally below 0.

SUNDAY: Sun and passing clouds. Highs 33-40. Wind NW 15-25 MPH, gusts 35-45 MPH, starting to diminish late. Wind chill below 10 in the morning.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 18-25. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 47-54. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (MARCH 15-19)

While there will still be an active pattern overall, our weather will be quieter as we avoid major systems, seeing 1 or 2 more minor disturbances come through with variable temperatures and a couple precipitation threats during this period, favoring March 15 and late March 16 to early March 17.

DAYS 11-15 (MARCH 20-24)

We welcome spring with the equinox at 11:33 a.m. EDT on Sunday March 20 and a weather pattern that presents a temperature battle and a couple periods of unsettled weather, fairly typical for this time of year.

C-19 Chat Post – 3-10-2022

DAYS 1-5 (MARCH 9-13)

A wave of low pressure passing just south of New England will produce a late-season snowfall for us this afternoon and early evening. While a quick glance at model snowfall forecast numbers make the event “look” more impressive, as a forecaster there are many factors to take into account. First off, using the 10:1 snow map will not be helpful as the ratios for this event will probably be on the order of 5:1 or 6:1 (snow to water) except perhaps about 8:1 in the highest elevations of northwestern RI, central MA, and southwestern NH, where a few spotty 3 inch snowfall amounts may occur from a melted precipitation event of generally 0.10 to 0.40 inch. This leaves the accumulation generally about 1/2 to 2 inches for the region. With about 75% of this falling from early afternoon to sunset, during daylight, it battles the higher March sun angle which does send radiation through the overcast much more easily than it would have in January, meaning that unpaved surfaces will just be wet especially since air temperatures will be marginal. In fact, the air is marginal enough that the snow may actually not start as snow, but rain, or a mix, on its leading edge, and may transition back to rain before ending along parts of the South Coast especially Cape Cod / Islands. Precipitation ends early evening, when we have a short-lived opportunity to see some untreated surfaces cover over with slushy snow then freeze up as the temperature goes down a little further below freezing later at night. That will be the greatest hazard we face during and after this event. Thursday, anything that has fallen will vanish as we see a return to sun and temperatures reaching or exceeding 50F as high pressure builds in. This high will give way gradually to an increase in cloud cover on Friday ahead of a warm front, which extends from our next storm system to deal with. This one, set to mess up the first half of the weekend, will bring a wind and rain event late Friday night through most of Saturday. There’s still a bit of a question on the exact track of the low, but even a track bringing it overhead would still mean a mainly rain event even for interior sections of the WHW forecast area, although a flip to snow or snow showers can occur at the end, depending on the arrival of cold air versus departure of precipitation. This little detail still has to be refined as we get closer to the event. Regardless, expect at least a moderate to possibly heavy rainfall event and some potential wind issues. This will be followed by a shot of cold and more wind, but with dry weather to finish off the weekend on Sunday and the last full weekend of the astronomical winter season. Sunday also marks the switch to Daylight Saving Time when we move the clocks forward at 2:00 a.m. ST which becomes 3:00 am. DT. Keep that in mind for your clocks that don’t automatically adjust themselves. I’ll remind you again… 🙂

TODAY: Overcast. Snow moves in from south to north, may start as rain/mix briefly in some areas. Highs 32-39. Wind N-NE up to 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Cloudy with snow tapering off evening, maybe as a mix with rain South Coast again. Snow accumulation 1/2 to 2 inches mainly on unpaved surfaces, with a local 3 inch amount possible interior higher elevations. Areas of ice forming on untreated surfaces. Breaking clouds overnight. Lows 27-34. Wind N-NW up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 45-52. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 24-31. Wind W under 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 47-54. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Clouding over. Rain likely overnight. Lows 40-47. Wind SE 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY: Cloudy with rain likely through midday. Rain ending with breaking clouds later in the day. Highs 50-57 but may fall sharply late in the day. Wind SE-S 10-20 MPH with higher gusts, shifting to W by late in the day.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Chance of snow showers evening. Lows 18-25. Wind W-NW 15-25 MPH, higher gusts.

SUNDAY: Sun and passing clouds. Highs 33-40. Wind NW 15-25 MPH, higher gusts.

DAYS 6-10 (MARCH 14-18)

While there will still be an active pattern overall, our weather will be quieter as we avoid major systems, seeing 1 or 2 more minor disturbances come through with variable temperatures and a couple precipitation threats during this period, favoring March 15 and 18.

DAYS 11-15 (MARCH 19-23)

End winter / start spring (equinox 11:33 a.m. EDT March 20) will be fairly typical with tug-of-war temperature pattern and some unsettled weather at times, but too early to really pin-point anything in detail.

C-19 Chat Post – 3-9-2022

DAYS 1-5 (MARCH 8-12)

High pressure builds toward New England today from the Great Lakes region, so it will be dry and chilly, starting windy before winds relax later. The high center goes right over us this evening with a clear sky and quick radiational cooling for a cold night, but the temperature fall will be capped as the high center slides offshore and cloud cover increases in advance of a low pressure area, which will pass south of the region late Wednesday, but close enough to toss its shield of snow (and some mixed precipitation) over us Wednesday afternoon and evening. While some of the model guidance indicates a 1-3 or 2-4 inch snowfall, a warmer ground and about 75% of the snow falling during daylight will limit the actual accumulation to a coating to 2 inches, mainly on unpaved surfaces. This system exists Wednesday night but we will have to watch for slippery areas on untreated surfaces. Conditions improve quickly Thursday as high pressure builds in with fair and milder weather. But the pattern remains active, and even though Friday’s daytime will be dry and pleasant, we’ll see clouds already heading in ahead of the next weather system, which will bring a period of rain and wind to the region later Friday night into Saturday. It looks like this low center will be intensifying as it cuts just northwest of our area, putting us on the warmer side of it, but a quick drop in temperature coming later Saturday as it starts to dry out, assuming the timing of the system doesn’t really change between now and then.

TODAY: Sun and passing clouds. Highs 38-45. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, gusts 25-35 MPH, diminishing during the afternoon.

TONIGHT: Clear evening. High clouds increase overnight. Lows 19-26. Wind NW to N under 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Early sunshine possible then overcast. Snow (some snow/mix rain initially near South Coast), developing southwest to northeast. Highs 35-42. Wind N to NE up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Cloudy with snow tapering off evening, maybe as a mix with rain South Coast again. Snow accumulation a coating to 2 inches. Areas of ice on untreated surfaces. Breaking clouds overnight. Lows 29-36. Wind NE-N 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 45-52. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 24-31. Wind W under 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 47-54. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Clouding over. Rain likely overnight. Lows 40-47. Wind SE 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY: Cloudy with rain likely through midday. Rain ending with breaking clouds later in the day. Highs 50-57 but may fall sharply late in the day. Wind SE-S 10-20 MPH with higher gusts, shifting to W by late in the day.

DAYS 6-10 (MARCH 13-17)

Windy, chilly, dry behind Saturday’s system on Sunday March 13. Also a reminder that we change the clocks from Standard Time to Daylight Saving Time at 2:00 a.m. Sunday. High pressure brings fair and more tranquil weather March 14 before a disturbance brings a chance for unsettled weather on the Ides. Jury’s out on the weather for March 16-17 with some guidance showing a decent warm up while other guidance shows us near the boundary between that warmer air and cold air to the north with a bit more unsettled weather. I lean toward the latter for the time being.

DAYS 11-15 (MARCH 18-22)

Typical battle between the lingering cold of winter to our north and the early warming air of spring to our south and this will play out in a fairly active pattern with variable temperatures for the last couple days of winter into the first few of days of spring. Vernal Equinox is Sunday March 20 at 11:33 a.m. EDT.

C-19 Chat Post – 3-8-2022

DAYS 1-5 (MARCH 7-11)

Low pressure will move rapidly east northeastward today, passing across northern New England this evening. First, the frontal boundary that moved through here last night will push back to the north as a warm front, but it will produce only spotty very light rainfall at most, but during this afternoon as the boundary sits across southern NH some rain shower activity can occur in southern NH and MA (mostly north of I-90). That boundary will pull northward just in advance of the passing low tonight, which will then drag a cold front fairly quickly across the region from northwest to southeast, when a more widespread episode of rain showers will occur, along with a possible rain squall right with the front which may even include some thunder. This will be brief however, marking the end of the event and the passage of the front, which will return dry and chilly weather to our region for Tuesday. There may be some significant gusts of wind in the 35-50 MPH range just ahead of to behind this front for a while. Isolated pockets of wind damage can occur, especially in higher elevations of central MA to eastern CT and northwestern RI, with a few power outages. While gusty on Tuesday, the wind will start to settle down during the day as high pressure approaches from the west. This high will settle across the region Tuesday night then retreat to the northeast on Wednesday. One slight change to the forecast at this point is that a wave of low pressure I’m watching and previously expecting to pass far enough south of our area to keep its precipitation out of here may indeed be close enough to spread some of it in here later Wednesday into Wednesday evening, and it will be cold enough at that time that we may have to deal with some snow as well. Some late-in-the-game fine tuning will be required in the next 2 posts. Either way, that system, miss, graze, or hit, moves away Thursday with more fair and chilly weather expected as high pressure sits to the north. By Friday, that high will move southeastward and we will see sunshine start to give way to clouds ahead of the next low pressure system which will be moving through the Ohio Valley at that time…

TODAY: Cloudy. A brief period of very light rain possible this morning. Scattered to numerous rain showers mainly north of I-90 mid afternoon on. Highs 47-52 southern NH, 53-58 MA/CT/RI. Wind variable 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Cloudy with widespread rain showers, a potential rain squall, and possible thunder during the evening. Clearing west to east overnight. Lows 30-37. Wind SW 10-20 MPH, gusts over 30 MPH, shifting to W by late evening then NW overnight.

TUESDAY: Sun and a few passing clouds. Highs 38-45. Wind NW 10-20 MPH with higher gusts, diminishing late.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 19-26. Wind NW to N under 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Increasing clouds. Some rain/mix/snow possible by late-day. Highs 37-44. Wind N to NE up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Cloudy with a chance of rain/mix/snow evening, ending overnight. Lows 30-37. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY: Clouds give way to sun. Highs 40-47. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 23-30. Wind variable under 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Sun gives way to clouds. Highs 45-52. Wind SE up to 10 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (MARCH 12-16)

A strong low pressure area cuts through the region March 12 with a good chance of rain and gusty wind, followed by drying and turning colder later that day and dry, windy, and cold weather for March 13 to finish the weekend. The overall outlook is for dry weather March 14-16 but a system may cut north of the region about March 15 with a minor precipitation threat and temperatures should average below to near normal at this time.

DAYS 11-15 (MARCH 17-21)

Still some activity and variable temperatures expected in the pattern as we head through the final few days of meteorological winter to the vernal equinox.

C-19 Chat Post – 3 – 7 – 2022

DAYS 1-5 (MARCH 6-10)

A warm front moves through this morning with fog and eventual rainfall. This afternoon we may break out to partial sun as the warm air arrives. Tonight and Monday, clouds dominate ahead of and with the passage of a cold front as low pressure moves along it with a cool-down from northwest to southeast and another period of rain that should end before it’s cold enough for mixing with any frozen precipitation, but by Tuesday morning, even though it looks drier than it previously did, we may need to watch for some black ice due to colder weather. We’ll see breezy and chilly weather but with dry conditions Tuesday as low pressure departs and high pressure approaches. This high will bring fair weather through Wednesday as well before another high builds in with fair weather continuing on Thursday. We’ll see a wave of low pressure passing to the south of the region late Wednesday to early Thursday, but this is expected to be a miss at this time.

TODAY: Mostly cloudy with areas of fog through midday including rain showers later morning and midday. Clouds break for some sun afternoon. Highs 47-52 South Coast, 53-58 interior RI and southeastern MA, 59-64 elsewhere. Wind S under to MPH, shifting to SW and increasing to 15-25 MPH with gusts 30-40 MPH.

TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. A passing rain shower possible. Lows 47-54. Wind SW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.

MONDAY: Cloudy. Periods of rain. Highs 50-57. Wind variable 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Rain with areas of fog in the evening. Areas of black ice possible overnight especially north and west of Boston. Lows 30-37. Wind variable shifting to N 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

TUESDAY: Cloud/sun mix. Highs 33-40. Wind N-NW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 15-22. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Sun and high clouds. Highs 38-45. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Lows 25-32. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 40-47. Wind variable 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (MARCH 11-15)

Another round of unsettled weather March 11-12, initially milder then colder weather arrives during the March 12-13 weekend with a drying trend. Unsettled weather may return yet again by the end of the period.

DAYS 11-15 (MARCH 16-20)

As we head through the final days of astronomical winter, we’ll continue to see an unsettled pattern with variable temperatures, odds favoring cooler.

C-19 Chat Post – March 6 2022

DAYS 1-5 (MARCH 5-9)

With high pressure offshore and a warm front approaching from the west today, your Saturday will be milder than the mid winter feel of Friday, but will have filtered to limited sun due to abundant high cloudiness moving in as warmer air moves in above. Eventually the clouds thicken and we probably lose the sun before it sets today, but we stay dry through the daylight hours. Tonight as the front moves closer, a batch of light precipitation will move across the region. It may be patchy in nature, but it also may be met with surface temperatures near or slightly below freezing over some interior locations, so while not widespread, a few areas may see briefly slippery untreated surfaces. Keep that in mind over interior locations if you are out tonight. Overnight, the temperature rises, putting an end to any of that. Sunday, we see the warm front push to our north as its parenting low pressure area moves across southeastern Canada. A lobe of energy will send some rain showers across our area mainly Sunday morning, and some drying behind this may allow for breaks of sunshine in the afternoon – a little more optimistic forecast than I had previously for Sunday. We’ll have very mild air, with 60+ possible for high temps in many locations, except where a southwest wind is coming off colder ocean water, so our South Coast region will be cooler with upper 40s and 50s expected. We’ll also have to deal with quite a bit of wind as well, but at least it won’t be a biting cold wind. But now comes the time I must remind you that this is March, and spring is not here quite yet. A cold front will settle southeastward across the region Sunday night and Monday. There will be some rain showers with the front, then a period of rain-free weather behind it for a while. But the front is not going to get that far as it goes by before a wave of low pressure comes along from the southwest along it, bringing rainfall back for Monday, especially afternoon and evening. We’ll have to keep a close eye on the temperature profile as this front sits just to the south, as there still can be some ice/snow involved at least over the interior areas and higher elevations well northwest of Boston. Right now though, I think it will be limited those areas, and unlike yesterday, I’m a little more optimistic for Tuesday that we see an earlier exit to the precipitation, eliminating the snow threat, and bringing the improved weather in sooner, with high pressure then moving in for fair but chilly weather heading to the middle of next week.

TODAY: Filtered to limited sunshine with lots of high cloudiness. Highs 35-42. Wind W to variable up to 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Cloudy. A couple periods of light rain possible, but some light icing possible over interior areas mostly north of I-90 and west of I-95 evening. Lows 30-37 evening, then slowly rising temperature overnight. Wind SE to S up to 10 MPH evening, increasing to 10-20 MPH overnight.

SUNDAY: Mostly cloudy with rain showers likely through midday. Partial sun afternoon. Highs 47-52 South Coast, 53-58 interior RI and southeastern MA, 59-64 elsewhere. Wind SW 15-25 MPH with gusts 30-40 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Passing rain showers possible. Lows 47-54. Wind SW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.

MONDAY: Cloudy. Periods of rain. Temperatures steady 47-54 early, then falling, especially southern NH and northern MA, where 30s are possible. Wind shifting from SW to N 10-20 MPH, higher gusts possible.

MONDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Chance of snow/ice/rain southern NH and northern MA, rain to the south. Temperatures falling to 28-35 by morning. Wind N-NE 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

TUESDAY: Cloud/sun mix. Highs 33-40. Wind N-NW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 15-22. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Sunny. Highs 38-45. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (MARCH 10-14)

A couple more low pressure systems threaten with unsettled weather during this period, and with marginal and variable temperatures some frozen precipitation can be involved.

DAYS 11-15 (MARCH 15-19)

Temperatures near to below normal. Additional unsettled weather with a fairly active pattern expected to continue into the final days of winter.

C-19 Chat Post – March 5 2022

DAYS 1-5 (MARCH 4-8)

High pressure provides cold Canadian air but dry and tranquil weather with abundant sunshine today, before slipping offshore Saturday and allowing for a slight moderation, as clouds move in ahead of a warm front. This front may produce a light variety of precipitation Saturday night as it moves through and can result in some slippery travel for a short while. After the front passes, we warm nicely on Sunday but that day will be unsettled with a good chance of rain showers. The low pressure area parenting that warm front will move well north of our area as it races into eastern Canada. Its cold front will sink across our region during Monday and south of the area by Tuesday. As this boundary goes by the region slowly, a couple more waves of low pressure will move along it, with additional unsettled weather. Most of this should be in the form of rain Monday, but depending on the timing of both the front and the low pressure waves, some freezing and/or frozen precipitation may become involved at least in parts of southern NH and northern MA before we see it come to an end. That part of the forecast requires fine-tuning in the days to come.

TODAY: Sunny. Highs 29-36. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Clear. Lows 12-19. Wind calm.

SATURDAY: Sunshine then increasing clouds. Highs 35-42. Wind SE up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Spotty light rain with some freezing rain possible mainly interior locations north of I-90 during the evening. Lows 30-37 evening, then temperatures rise overnight. Wind SE up to 10 MPH, shifting to SW and increasing to 10-20 MPH overnight.

SUNDAY: Mostly cloudy with rain showers likely. Highs 47-52 South Coast, 53-58 interior RI and southeastern MA, 59-64 elsewhere. Wind SW 10-20 MPH with gusts up to 30 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Lows 47-54. Wind SW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.

MONDAY: Cloudy. Periods of rain. Temperatures steady 47-54 early, then falling, especially southern NH and northern MA, where 30s are possible. Wind shifting from SW to N 10-20 MPH, higher gusts possible.

MONDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Chance of snow/ice/rain southern NH and northern MA, rain to the south. Temperatures falling to 28-35 by morning. Wind N-NE 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

TUESDAY: Cloudy with a chance of snow/ice/rain, ending during the day. Clearing possible late-day. Highs 33-40. Wind NE-N 10-20 MPH, gusty.

DAYS 6-10 (MARCH 9-13)

High pressure brings dry weather to start the period, but the active pattern continues with 1 or 2 low pressure systems bringing additional unsettled weather threats after that. Temperatures below to near normal.

DAYS 11-15 (MARCH 14-18)

Temperatures near to below normal. Additional unsettled weather with a fairly active pattern expected to continue.

C-19 Chat Post – March 4 2022